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Periodo
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Promedio
movil de N=3
Demanda
tres
seis periodos
periodos
Dt
Ft
10
18
29
15
###
30
###
12
###
16
###
19.0
8
###
20.0
22
###
18.3
14
###
17.2
15
###
17.0
27
###
14.5
30
###
17.0
23
###
19.3
15
###
21.8
20.7
MAD
# MAD
Desv est # Desv est
Promedio
Movil de N=6
Error
et=Ft-Dt
|et|
desv dem
7.3917586
3.0
12.0
-3.7
3.2
2.0
-12.5
-13.0
-3.7
6.8
3.0
12.0
3.7
3.2
2.0
12.5
13.0
3.7
6.8
6.6
8.4
tN
1
F
D
N
A
M
()
it
itN
eDeviation
Desviacion Es tan dar del error
MAD Mean Absolute
n
n
n
2
(ei e)
ei
|ei |
i 1
,donde e i 1
i 1
n 1
n
n
x2
x3
14.7835172 22.1752758
20.7
Demanda
Dt
10
18
29
15
30
12
16
8
22
14
15
27
30
23
15
MAD
Desv est
exp (=0.1)
Error
et=Ft-Dt
Ft
|et|
Ft
10
10.8
MAD
Desv est
F D
(1 )F SE()
t
t1
t 1
0 1
encial
exp (=0.3)
Error
et=Ft-Dt
|et|
Holt y RL
Ft, t + = St +*Gt
As
2.5
6.5
9.375
0.15
0.10
Determine
Ubicacin
S9 =
G9 =
F9,10 =
S D (1 )(S
G )
t
t
t1 t1
G (S S ) (1 )G
t
t t1
t1
Regresin Lineal
y= mx + b
Coeficientes
Pendiente
m
Intercepcin
b
Pgina 5
Periodo
9
10
11
12
Holt y RL
m
b
5.4523809524 102.71428571
Pgina 6
Holt y RL
Promedio GLOBAL
S4,5=
Ubicacin
127.25
4.5
Kg
Kg
D (1 )(S
G )
t
t1 t1
(S S ) (1 )G
t t1
t1
Ponstico
Pgina 7
Holt y RL
Pgina 8
11.5404
ct (est2)
0.8949
0.8963
0.9707
0.9759
1.0537
1.1823
1.1209
1.0368
0.9854
0.9811
0.9302
0.9494
ct(prom)
0.6824
0.7747
0.9108
0.9765
1.0841
1.2661
1.1709
1.0772
1.0059
0.9703
0.9151
0.9253
ctnor
0.6964
0.7905
0.9294
0.9965
1.1063
1.2920
1.1949
1.0993
1.0265
0.9901
0.9338
0.9443
Suma
11.9778
11.7591
12.0000
0.3
0.1
0.1
Determine
D1=
S1 ,
G 1,
c1
Venest3(real)
701
Pronest4(t,t+1)
Pronosticos(0,est3)
513.3474
604.3022
735.8084
816.0727
936.1214
1128.5219
1076.2519
1020.0855
980.5566
972.7937
942.9143
979.1875