Ethiopia: Case Analysis on USAID Fiscal Year Assistance of 2011

By Abukar Sanei
05/29/2010

Background

Ethiopia is the oldest independent country in the Sub-Saharan Africa, and one of the
oldest in the world. It has a population of 88 million with diversity in ethnicity and religion.
There are seven ethnic groups, but the major four groups are: Oromo, 32.1%, Amhara, 30.1%,
Tigray (the PM comes from this ethnic group) 6.2% and Somali 5.9%. For instance, Christianity
and Islam are the dominant religions in Ethiopia as they both hold 61% and 33% respectively.
Economically, Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in Africa, and agriculture is where the
main portion of the GDP comes from. The three main sectors that the country’s GDP is based on
are: Agriculture, which gives 43.8%, Services, which makes 43% and Industry, which only adds
13.2% of the GDP. However, the GDP per capita is very low, and it is estimated only $900 for
the year 2009. Furthermore, unlike any other country in the Sub-Saharan Africa, the ancient
Ethiopian rulers maintained their freedom from colonial rule with the exception of short-lived
Italian occupation from 1936-411.

However, Ethiopia has a background of different political systems. Monarchy system, which was
the old governance, had been in place for a quite long time, but came to an end in 1974.
Dictatorship system, which was led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, and supported by the former
Soviet Union, has followed, and come to power in 1974. Furthermore, as the former Soviet
Union was coming to its total political breakdown in the late 1980s, many African countries
started to confront the dictatorial regimes in their countries and entered, as Huntington called,
into the third wave of democratization processes. Some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
achieved their dream of having a democratic system in their countries despite the fact that there
is still a wide range of corruption, and human rights abuses. Others, even though they ousted the
dictatorial systems, like Somalia, have failed to achieve political stability up to this very day as
chaos and civil wars erupted in their countries. However, Ethiopia was one of those countries
that have tried relatively to adopt with the new wave of the democratization process in Africa
during 1990s. The Freedom House has categorized Ethiopia as “partly free,” and the scores for
political rights and civil liberties for the last ten years are 5. For instance, there are more than 60
active political parties in Ethiopia. However, for the last ten years, there have been three main
elections in Ethiopia.

The first election was held in 2000, but the opposition groups and other observers did not
approve the way the election was handled. In 2005, another election was held, and the opposition
groups claimed that there was fraud. In addition, the European Union and other observers said
that the elections did not meet international standards. However, other observers led by former
US president, Jimmy Carter found that even though there were allegations against the EPDRF,
which is the ruling party, and led by the Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, the voting essentially
represented the will of the Ethiopian people.

In 2005 elections for the Parliament resulted in increase in opposition representation. In fact, this
was a move forward for political rights. The media is dominated by the state-owned agencies,
and in 2007, the Committee to Protect Journalists cited the Ethiopian government on violations
on freedom of press. Moreover, there is a restriction of assembly and association, and people are
reluctant to discuss issues and advocate policies. The ruling party is in favor for the Tigrayan
ethnic group in the country’s economic and political matters. Even though there is a cabinet
minister for women affairs, women’s rights are routinely violated. However, in 2007, at least 193
people were killed, and more than 4000 people were arrested for “illegal assembly.” Among
those who were arrested are some of the opposition leaders. In fact, this was a backward move
and abuse of political rights. Even though the government has tried to combat corruption, it’s
accused of practicing it. In 2008, Ethiopia was ranked 126 out of 180 countries surveyed in
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Even though there is a
“democratization process” there is still oppression against the people by the ruling party. People
cannot express their opinions freely; election results are in dispute, and the press serves only for
the interest of the government2. Moreover, another important election was held in May 23rd,
2010, and despite ongoing critics on how this election was held, the current PM, Meles Zenawi
arrogantly claimed a landslide victory for his EPDF party. In his words to express his views, he
said, “we have no regrets, and we offer no apologies” as the US and the European Union
expressed concern over the fairness of the election3. Based on these factors, Ethiopia is put under
“partly free” category with the score of 5 for political rights and civil liberties. However, as the
result of the latest election indicates, Ethiopia will be punished by negative scores, because of its
abuses towards the indicators of democratic consolidation. And unfortunately, Ethiopia, instead
of going forward, it is going backward and transforming to as one man and one party ruling
system, which is not different from the pre-1991 dictatorial system that ruled the country for
almost 17 years.

USAID Fiscal Year 2011 for Ethiopia

The USAID has been providing assistance to Ethiopia since the current regime led by Meles
Zenawi came to power in 1991 for many reasons. Ethiopia has become a great ally to the United
States by confronting the global threats that are posed by the non-governmental actors after the
9/11 tragedy. However, the fiscal year of 2011 that the USAID designated for Ethiopia is $583,
519,000. In addition, the distribution of this aid, as any other aid that the USAID provides to the
developing countries, has four main projects: Investing in People, which takes the biggest pie, is
$475,029,000. Economic Growth comes second, and it has $95,565,000. Peace and Security
ranks third, and its fund is $8,750,000. Lastly, Governing Justly and Democratically falls under
the least funded project, and it has only $3,175,000. Furthermore, there are sub-categories of
each one of these four main projects. Health, education and social and economic services and
protection for vulnerable population come under Investing in People project. For instance, trade
and investment, financial sector, agriculture, private sector competitiveness and environment fall
under the Economic Growth. Peace and Security has two sub-categories, which are stabilization
operations and security sector reform, and conflict mitigation and reconciliation. However,
governing justly and democratically, which is the least priority for the USAID, has four sub-
categories: Rule of law and human rights, good governance, political competition and consensus
building, and civil society.

If the fiscal year of 2011 for Ethiopia is compared to the previous fiscal year, there is a big
difference. For health alone, which is part of the Investing in People project, there is an increase
of $26 million. Education, which is the same category, there is a boost of $3 million. For the
project of Economic Growth, there is an addition of $1,800,000 for trade and investment.
In agriculture, the USAID wants to add $14 million in this fiscal year. Furthermore, stabilization
operations and security sector reform has an addition of $1,682,000. However, conflict
mitigation and reconciliation has a decrease of $ 725,000 if compared to the previous fiscal year.
Rule of law and human rights, which are part of governing justly and democratically, has no
increase or decrease, but good governance has an increase of $7, 37,000. Also, there is no
assistance for political competition and consensus building, and civil society has just an increase
of $60,000.

Likelihood of Success

For the last ten years, there has not been a power transfer in Ethiopia despite the fact that the
current regime in Ethiopia claims that it applies a democratic system in the country. If this is the
case, how will the USAID projects be fruitful and produce such an outcome that can bring a
democratic consolidation in Ethiopia? Having this question in mind, however, the focus of
USAID is geared towards building a social capital, and economic growth, which can lead a
positive result, not in the short term, but in the long term. In the fiscal year of 2011 for Ethiopia,
the two top projects for USAID are investing in people and economic growth. Investing in
people, which combines health and education, receives the most funds from this assistance.
Health and Education are two key components that, in the long run, will lead to a healthy and
productive society. Building human capital that is capable of engaging in the political and social
activities of the country cannot be achieved unless there is an investment process in the
Ethiopians. The target of the development assistance by USAID is to deliver and increase access
to quality primary education in Ethiopia by building the capacity of teachers through updated
instructional content and methodology.4 The sought after result from investing in people project,
which is a fully incorporated democratic system cannot be expected to achieve in the short run,
because of the behavior of the current system, but investing in people is an activity that is worth
of funding from the USAID and other agencies that are active donors to Ethiopia.

Furthermore, USAID assistance to Ethiopia for economic growth will have an impact on the
democratic consolidation in the long run, too. However, there is a great connection between
investing in people and economic growth. By education, better opportunities arise, and by health
care system, comes workforce that can increase the GDP of the country. Moreover, there are
negative and positive indicators in some sectors of the economic system of Ethiopia. The ruling
party made much in the election campaign of the country’s high level of economic growth,
averaging 8% of so a year. Income from exports was $1.4 billion in the 2009 compare to just $5
billion in neighboring Kenya, which has half of Ethiopia’s population. However, there is no
economic freedom in Ethiopia. The government’s instinct for centralized control continues to
inhabit enterprise and depress growth, and state-run banks are dwarfed by private-sector banks
elsewhere in Africa.5 On the other hand, a growing number of the Ethiopian population cannot
survive and feed themselves in their day to day lives unless USAID and other donor agencies do
something about the challenges of starvation and hunger. For instance, Ethiopians have been
suffering for long time starvation because of the drought that occasionally hits the country.
However, several years before the global food crisis threw a spotlight on the low productivity of
African agriculture, Mr. Zenawi initiated a development program founded on small-scale farms.
The government introduced improved seed varieties, set up a donor-funded welfare program to
help farmers accumulate assets, and build roads so food could be moved from regions with a
surplus to those with a shotage6. As a nomad society with less industrial activities, the majority
of Ethiopians depend on the primary economy sector, and in this case, USAID is on the right
track by increasing funds for the agricultural sector.

Moreover, peace and security project, even though it receives fewer funds from the USAID for
the fiscal year of 2011, is a gateway that can be helpful for the prospects of democratic
consolidation for the long run. Lack of security, whether internally and externally, poses great
challenges, not only for Ethiopia, but for the most Sub-Saharan countries of Africa. However,
Ethiopia struggles with internal and external security challenges, and without peace and security,
it’s hard to achieve progress towards democracy in Ethiopia. The rebels come from ethnic groups
and feel that they are marginalized from the political process or want to secede and reclaim their
own national identity. One of the notorious rebel groups is the Ogaden National Liberation Front
(ONLF), which is mainly Somali ethnic population. However, the Ethiopian government is
forcing untrained civilians including doctors, teachers, office clerks and employees of
development programs financed by the World Bank and United Nations to fight rebels in the
desolate Ogaden region. The government justifies its action, and claims that the rebels are
terrorists who have carried out assassinations and bombings, and the bizarre thing is that
everyone who refuses to fight against the rebel groups will be fired, jailed and in some cases
tortured.7

The external security challenge is another issue that the Ethiopian regime is trying to contain. In
fact, it has already put this issue in its top priorities. Border dispute between Eretria and Ethiopia
has resulted a bitter war in 1998, and the tension is still there despite the fact the UN has
demarcated a line between the two countries. For instance, the total collapse of Somalia as a state
in 1991, and becoming a safe haven for the terrorist groups in the horn of Africa since then has
produced a great external security challenge to Ethiopia. However, in 2002, Meles Zenawi met
with George W. Bush, and as the timing of this meeting indicates, the discussion between the
two leaders focused on the US led war on terror. In addition, the meeting between Bush and
Zenawi was a response to a terrorist attack that targeted an Israeli hotel in the coastal city of
Mombasa, Kenya.8 Furthermore, the threat from Somali Islamists towards Ethiopia has peaked
when the Islamic Courts came to power in 2006, and this led to Ethiopian invasion on Somalia at
the end of 2006. Air attacks by the US targeted some Al-Qaeda cells in Somalia, as a predawn
missile strike in Dhusamareb, 300 miles north of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, was
launched against a known Al Qaeda target and militia leader in Somalia, who had trained and
fought in Afghanistan with Al Qaeda. Mr. Aden Hashi Ayro, who was the target for this strike
has resurfaced to declare “holy war” on Ethiopian forces, which had helped Somalia’s feeble
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) defeat the Islamists. He used tactics pioneered in Iraq to
mount an Islamist insurgency as his fighters have used roadside bombs and mounted hit-and-run
raids9. With these internal and external challenges to peace and security that Ethiopia is facing,
the predictions for democratic consolidation, and a political process that is based on fair and
balance that every Ethiopian citizen can freely participate is not really something that cannot be
expected sooner in Ethiopia.

Governing justly and democratically is one of the indicators of a healthy political system that
governs people towards a prosperous direction. However, Ethiopia has not been showing a good
gesture in this regard, and like other indicators, a positive result of governing justly and
democratically will not be achieved from the Ethiopian government in the short run. Mr. Zenawi
is/was not known for respecting the rule of law and human rights of his people. Since he came to
power 14 years ago, his security forces has imprisoned, tortured and harassed thousands of
people who have criticized the government. Moreover, Human Rights Watch traveled to
Ethiopia’s vast and overwhelmingly rural Oromia region in March 2005, and interviewed dozens
of farmers from communities throughout the region. Almost all of them complained that local
authorities in their communities punished political dissent by selectively imprisoning critics for
unpaid debts and withholding vital agricultural inputs from them.10 Repressions against political
opponents, civil society groups and media are the practical culture of the Ethiopian government.
An opposition candidate was killed at the beginning of May 2010, and the finger points are at the
ruling party. For instance, the ruling party responded by saying that the man died of cancer, and
vowed to prosecute those who accused the government for the killing. However, the father of the
opposition figure that was stepped to death told Voice of America radio station that his son had
been beaten to death by government militia men.11 The civil society groups, which challenge the
regime’s repression face abuses from the government. In 2008, the government announced new
legislation-the Charities and Societies Proclamation-which purports greater oversight and
transparency on civil society activities. In fact, the law is meant to undermine and criminalize the
work of many human rights organizations. In addition to the repressions against the civil society
organizations, a new media law was passed in July 2007. This law promises to reform some of
the most repressive aspects of the previous legal framework, and most notably, it eliminates the
practice of pretrial detention for journalist. However, in August 2007, the prominent editor of the
Addis Ababa-based Reporter newspaper was imprisoned without charge for several days in
connection with a story printed in the paper12. Unless the rule of law, the rights of citizens, and
tolerance towards political opponents as long as their actions are constitutionally right, Ethiopia
is not still close to overcome the roadblocks of a total democratic consolidation process.

Alternatives

Even though the funds of the fiscal year 2011 for Ethiopia have been distributed wisely in the
four main projects, it needs some re-evaluation. However, the heaviest fund of the USAID goes
to investing in people, and that is really good since other projects are less likely to succeed and
produce a positive result in the near future. Combating the challenges of illiteracy by providing a
good quality education, and boosting the health care system are steps towards developing the
human capital. Moreover, there are ethnic groups that are not happy about the road taken by
Zenawi’s government and feel that they are in isolation. Therefore, the USAID programs
towards Ethiopia need to put some emphasis on conflict mitigation.

For instance, political competition and consensus building projects, which are part of the
governing justly and democratically, need to be re-evaluated. Political competitiveness is one of
the signs that can produce a quick democratic transformation, and the USAID wants to invest as
more funds should be allocated, so that everyone can feel welcome to participate in the political
process. Unfortunately, the Ethiopian government does not respect and tolerate the voices of its
rivals. Human Rights Watch reports that Meles is using aid to build a single-party state, and the
donor countries have colluded in eroding civil liberties and democracy by letting their aid to be
manipulated by Mr. Zenawi.13 Furthermore, targeting the opposition leaders hinder the progress
towards democracy. Recently, a group of Ethiopian oppositions and activists have escaped the
death penalty but were sentenced to life in prison in July 2007 for just an accusation that they
were “inciting violence” during protests against a disputed election. Whoever was behind
propagating this draconian “court ruling”, it was rejected by the European Union election
observers of 2005, and told the BBC that the life sentences were inhumane, and the only crime
that these opposition leaders committed was to express their opinions freely in elections, which
were supposed to be democratic. Also, the Bush administration said it was surprised by the
demand of prosecutors for the death penalty and called for sentences that were consistent with
bolstering the rule of law and promoting much-needed reconciliation.14 Based on these facts, the
rule of law and respecting human rights are some issues that the USAID should conditionally
demand from the Addis Ababa regime, and tie to its aid to Ethiopia.

In addition, civil society organizations play a vital role for the democratic consolidation, and
their funds need to be increased. Instead of just adding $60,000 more compared to the previous
fiscal year, at least $100,000 will be helpful to perform their duties properly and to be a
progressive tool for democracy. A special attention needs to be given to women empowerment
within the civil society organizations. Furthermore, the closed economy system will not be
helpful for the aggregate economic growth of the country at large; therefore, USAID agency
must address this issue with the Ethiopian government. Helping the agricultural sector will have
an impact on farmers as they will be able to produce more, but they need to have freedom to
market their products without the government’s interference.

These are the options that the USAID may want to use for re-evaluation of its aid to Ethiopia.
However, the fact is that even though the Ethiopian people overthrew a dictator regime in 1991,
again they have another one that has been ruling them for almost twenty years. By sitting the
thrown for this long time itself is a sign that there is something wrong with the Ethiopian politics.
Having multiple elections that are not based on free and fair cannot be counted as a
transformation into democratic consolidation. Centralized economy cannot grantee political and
economic stability in the long run. Furthermore, continued disputed elections, corruption and
mal-practicing in government, silencing the media, and anyone who speaks against the
government, imprisoning the opposition figures are indicators that there is no democracy in
Ethiopia, because respecting these issues show that there is a genuine democratic transformation.

However, despite all these negative aspects that are there, the USAID will continue providing aid
to Ethiopia for two main reasons. A moral obligation is number one reason that the aid will
continue pouring in Ethiopia. The second reason is very important. As long as the Ethiopian
regime is in the front line, and a big partner for the war on terror to make sure that the global
security is not challenged by the “jihadist groups,” Zenawi will keep receiving the US aid
regardless of his oppression against his own people, and rejecting their basic rights of political
participation. The slightest thing that the USAID can do to challenge the Addis Ababa regime is
to conditionally limit the aid that Ethiopia receives. One the other hand, this dictator man can
fight back, and demand his blank check from Washington or he will let his neighboring Somali
Islamist groups to challenge the global security that the US as the world superpower is
responsible to safeguard. However, democratic consolidation is not visible from the Ethiopian
politics in the near future, because of the negative indicators that are available now, but
achieving this goal requires efforts from Ethiopians to endure, and the donor countries to demand
the implementation of these democratic values from Zenawi’s regime in Addis Ababa.
Endnotes

1. Ethiopia: Government. The World Fact Book

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html

2. Freedom House: Freedom in the World—Ethiopia (2009)

http://freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2010&country=7821

3. Powel, Anita. Ethiopia PM Rebuffs Election Critics.

Washington Post, May 26, 2010
 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2010/05/26/AR2010052601145_pf.html

4. USAID 2011 FY Foreign Assistance to Ethiopia, Pages, 63-69

http://glennschool.osu.edu/faculty/brown/Failed%20States%20Readings/USAID
%202010%20Budget%20Justification.pdf

5. Economist: Ethiopia’s Elections: Five More Years, May 20, 2010

http://www.economist.com/world/middle-east/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=16168394

6. Jopson, Barney. “Ethiopia Hungry for Solution to Farming Crisis”

The Financial Times, Sept. 10, 2008
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f849156-7ecf-11dd-b1af-000077b07658.html

7. Gettleman, Jeffery. “Ethiopians Said to Push Civilians into Rebel War”

New York Times, December 15, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/15/world/africa/15ethiopia.html?emc=eta1

8. “Terror Attack: Bush, Moi, Zenawi Hold Talks.” December 6, 2002

http://allafrica.com/stories/200212090199.html

9. Peterson, Scott. “U.S Kills Al Qaeda-linked Militant, but Elsewhere Terrorism Grows”
The Christian Science Monitor, May 2, 2008.
http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/226655

10. Albin-Lackey, Chris, “The Dark Side of Ethiopia’s Green Revolution”

Human Rights Watch, September 5, 2005
http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2005/09/04/dark-side-ethiopia-s-green-revolution

11. Reuters: “Ruling Party Blamed for Death of Opposition Candidate”

New York Times, May 8, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/09/world/africa/09ethiopia.html?emc=eta1

12. Human Rights Watch, Ethiopia: Events of 2008

http://www.hrw.org/en/world-report/2009/ethiopia

13. The Economist: “Forget about Democracy” March 25, 2010

http://www.economist.com/world/middle-east/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15772973

14. Jopson, Barney. “Ethiopian Poll Protesters Given Life Sentences”

The Financial Times, July 17, 2007
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b47f14e-33fe-11dc-9887-0000779fd2ac.html