Major Trends in Bio-Diversity Change

Determining how biodiversity of an ecosystem, species, or gene pool has changed

over time by comparing current patterns with historical ones helps us to understand
trends in biodiversity. Yet, pinpointing detailed trends is difficult because the data
on which the extrapolations are often based are highly uncertain. Estimating the rate
of extinction is dependent on many things, including the number of known species,
the particular region or ecosystem, and the period of time that is used.
To determine a trend, scientists must compare the rate of species loss at the present
time to the loss indicated by the fossil records during other time periods. Based on
fossil records, scientists have determined that there were several periods of mass
extinctions in the distant past. Yet, according to the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, the current rate of biodiversity loss is exceeding those of the historical
past by several orders of magnitudeand it shows no indication of slowing down.
Since not every species that has become extinct has left a fossil record, estimates of
the overall rate of change are often extrapolated from well-studied groups.
According to the current Red List, between 12 and 52 percent of well-studied
species are threatened with extinction, including approximately one-quarter of all
mammals. The 2006 Living Planet Index, an aggregate of several indices, asserts
that the population of vertebrate species has declined by nearly one-third since
1970. Most statistics illustrate that the majority of all species are declining in range
and number, especially in the higher taxonomic categories that include mammals,
birds, and fish.
Species that tend to face the greatest extinction risk are characterized by low
population density and reproduction rates, a long lifespan, and a small geographical
range. Loss of species diversity is especially high on islands and in tropical areas,
which are home to a greater number of species per acre than other areas of the
world. For example, all great apeslocated primarily in small areas within Asia
and Africaare highly endangered.
A loss in species diversity is due in large part to decreasing ecosystem diversity
through the conversion of land for agriculture, settlement, or other human uses.
Though both terrestrial ecosystems and aquatic ecosystems have experienced
significant conversion, some ecosystems are more affected than others. Grasslands

and tropical dry forests, in particular, are being converted faster than any other
biome. Since 1980, South America and Southeast Asiawhich host the largest
sections of worlds mangroves and coral reefs (35 and 40 percent, respectively)
have had the highest rate of habitat loss.
Though the loss of species and ecosystem diversity generally get top billing, genetic
diversity is also on the decline, mainly as a result of the increasing homogeneity of
domestic animals and crops worldwide. The wide-spread adoption of specialized,
high-yield plants after the Green-Revolution is often cited as one reason for this
trend. The unique genetic characteristics that enabled local varieties of rice, maize,
and wheat to thrive in certain ecosystems now survive, in some cases, only in a
gene bank. As of 2006, an estimated one-third of the 6,500 domesticated animal
species are endangered due to small population size. This lack of genetic diversity
puts the species at greater risk for disease and other population stresses, a problem
of particular concern because of the implications to both human health and
economic stability.
While many may disagree on the causes, extent, and implications of biodiversity
loss, there is little question that great changes are presently occurring around the
world. Finding ways to abate these trends is a focus for many scientists and
conservationists, as well as for people whose livelihoods depend upon the continued
availability of natural resources and the ecosystem services they provide.
Uncertainty also remains over the validity of the different measures used to predict
the effect of drivers of change on future biodiversity loss, ecosystem functioning,
and ecosystem services. However, most short-term forecasts predict the rate of loss
will continue or even accelerate. A well renowned biologist estimates that 30 to 50
percent of the worlds species will go extinct by the middle of the 21st century.
Despite these dire sounding predictions, many scientists believe that the Earths
biodiversity has recovered after past mass extinctions and, given time, will do so
again.