Quality Engineering

ISSN: 0898-2112 (Print) 1532-4222 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/lqen20

Semiparametric Reliability Model in the Failure

Analysis of a Coal-Fired Boiler Used in a Thermal
Power PlantA Case Study
Debasis Das Adhikary, Goutam Kumar Bose, Dipankar Bose & Souren Mitra
To cite this article: Debasis Das Adhikary, Goutam Kumar Bose, Dipankar Bose & Souren
Mitra (2015) Semiparametric Reliability Model in the Failure Analysis of a Coal-Fired Boiler
Used in a Thermal Power PlantA Case Study, Quality Engineering, 27:3, 353-360, DOI:
10.1080/08982112.2015.1037395
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08982112.2015.1037395

Published online: 18 Jun 2015.

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Date: 18 March 2016, At: 12:51

Quality Engineering, 27:353360, 2015

Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 0898-2112 print / 1532-4222 online
DOI: 10.1080/08982112.2015.1037395

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Semiparametric Reliability Model in the

Failure Analysis of a Coal-Fired Boiler Used
in a Thermal Power PlantA Case Study
Debasis Das Adhikary,1
Goutam Kumar Bose,1
Dipankar Bose, 2
Souren Mitra 3
1
Department of Mechanical
Engineering, Haldia Institute
of Technology, Haldia, Purba
Medinipur, West Bengal, India
2
Department of Mechanical
Engineering, National Institute of
Technical Teachers Training and
Research, Salt Lake, Kolkata,
India
3
Department of Production
Engineering, Jadavpur University,
Kolkata, India

ABSTRACT Reliability of a system varies under different operating

conditions like temperature, humidity, dust, maintenance facilities,
maintenance personnel skill, operator skill, etc., called covariates. Under poor
operating environments the reliability decreases. Therefore, for precise
estimation of system reliability, the inuence of various covariates is included.
This article aims to investigate the effect of ve covariates on the reliability
characteristics of a coal-red boiler using the Weibull proportional hazard
model, a semiparametric reliability model. The results from the case study
indicate that there is a substantial decrease in reliability. A preventive
maintenance program based on this calculated reliability will be safer to use.
KEYWORDS coal-fired boiler, covariates, semi-parametric reliability model, operating
environment, Proportional Hazard Model, thermal power plant, Weibull

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Address correspondence to Debasis

Das Adhikary, Department of
Mechanical Engineering, Haldia
Institute of Technology, ICARE
Complex, HIT Campus, Haldia, Purba
Medinipur, West Bengal 721657, India.
E-mail: d_dasadhikary@rediffmail.com

The reliability of mechanical systems and their parts decrease as they age
(Kumar, Jain, and Gandhi 2013), which increases catastrophic failures.
Hence, proper reliability estimation is required to plan an effective maintenance program of a repairable system or component in order to improve
operation time. Numerous researchers (Genschel and Meeker 2010; Kumar,
Jain, and Gandhi 2013; Olteanu and Freeman 2010; Zhang et al. 2013) used
the time-dependent parametric reliability model to analyze failure and repair
data of various nonrepairable or repairable systems in series, parallel, or combinations of series and parallel. The parametric reliability model assumes a
specic lifetime distribution; that is, exponential, Weibull, or lognormal,
where the operation time is considered as the only variable. But the reliability
of a system varies under different operating conditions (covariates), such as
temperature, humidity, dust, maintenance facilities, maintenance personal
skill, operator skill, etc. (Ghodrati 2005). The inuence of covariates (operating environments) may increase or decrease the reliability of a system. Poor
operating environments increase the failure rate as well as decrease reliability
and vice versa (Ghodrati 2005; Kumar and Klefsj
o 1994). Therefore, the
353

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inuence of the external covariates needs to be considered along with the operation times (internal factors; Ahmad et al. 2011) for more reliable calculation
of system reliability.
Nonparametric reliability models have been developed based on the method proposed by Kaplan and
Meier (1958) and Nelson (1969) for consideration of
the inuencing covariates along with censored data
and the elimination of any specic distribution in
hazard analysis (Ghodrati 2005). The introduction of
a proportional hazard model (PHM) is a major contribution to the concept of nonparametric regression
methods. It was initially introduced in medical analysis by Cox (1972) and thereafter numerous researchers (Ahmad et al. 2011; Barabadi, Barabady, and
Markeset 2014; Ghasemi, Yacout, and Ouali 2007;
Ghodrati 2005; Ghodrati and Kumar 2005; Kumar
and Klefsj
o 1994; Kumar and Kelfsjo 1992; Lakshmi
and Sundari 2012; Li et al. 2007; Rigdon et al. 2013;
Tian and Liao 2011; Zhou, Chinnam, and Korostelev 2012) applied it in engineering for components
hazard analysis.
The literature survey reveals that there is a lack of
implementation of covariates-inuenced semiparametric reliability model in the failure analysis of a
coal-red boiler used in a thermal power plant.
Therefore, in this article, the probable covariates
that can inuence the failure rate are identied and
the application is demonstrated in the failure analysis. For this purpose, a Weibull proportional hazard
model (WPHM) was used.

PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODEL

In accordance with the PHM, the hazard (failure)
rate of a system is the product of a time-dependent
baseline hazard rate 0(t) and time-independent positive functional term that incorporates the effects of
external covariates (operating environments). The baseline hazard rate is equal to the hazard rate, excluding
the inuence of covariates (Ahmad et al. 2011; Ghodrati 2005). Semiparametric reliability models usually
assume exponential, Weibull, or lognormal distributions of lifetime in the calculation of baseline hazard
rate. Therefore, the WPHM assumes the Weibull distribution of the operation times in estimating the baseline
hazard function (Lakshmi and Sundari 2012). According to this model, the actual failure rate can be
354

expressed as (Ghodrati 2005)

.t/ D .t; z/ D 0 .t/:exp.a:z/
!


n
X
b t b1
D
:exp
ai zi ;
u0 u0
iD1

[1]

where 0(t) is the time-dependent failure rate (baseline

hazard rate) and (t) is the actual failure rate considering the effect of n number of covariates zi, i D 1, 2, . . . ,
n (row vectors) on the system. The ai, i D 1, 2, . . ., n,
are the unknown regression parameters (column vectors), which indicates the degree of inuence of each
covariate on the hazard function.
The proportionality assumption of the PHM is that
the ratio of any two hazard rates is constant with
respect to time (Barabadi, Barabady, and Markeset
2014) as
.t/ D

.t; z1 / 0 .t/:exp.a:z1 /
D
D expfaz1 z2 g;
.t; z2 / 0 .t/:exp.a:z2 /
[2]

where z1 and z2 are two different levels of a covariate.

The goodness-of-t test of the PHM to the collected
data set is performed numerically or graphically by the
satisfaction of the proportionality assumption. In the
graphical test, the graphs of the logarithm of the estimated cumulative hazard rates of two different levels
of a covariate against time should be almost parallel
(Kumar and Klefsj
o 1994).
For the Weibull distribution of operation time data,
the covariates inuence only the scale parameterthat
is, characteristic life (u)but not the shape parameter
(b; Ebeling 2008; Ghodrati and Kumar 2005). Hence,
actual characteristic life can be estimated using Eq. [3]
(Ahmad et al. 2011; Ghodrati and Kumar 2005). The
mean time between failures (MTBF) ignoring and considering the inuence of covariates can be estimated
using Eqs. [4] and [5], respectively.
(
ua D u0 exp

n
X

!) b1
ai zi

D u0 c b
1

[3]

iD1


1
MTBF0 D u0 :G 1 C
b



1
;
MTBFa D ua :G 1 C
b

[4]
[5]

where ua is the actual characteristic life, u0 is the

D. Das Adhikary et al.

time-dependent baseline characteristic life of a component, and G(x) is the gamma function.
According to Tutt et al. (2012), for the Weibull distribution of time between failure (TBF) data, the
expected number of failures at time t of a repairable system/component can be calculated as
Zt
N .t/ D
0

 t b 1
 t b
b:
dt D
:
u
u

[6]

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Therefore, for a repairable system/component the

expected number of failures per one year of operation
time (t D 8,760 hours) ignoring and considering the
inuence of covariates can be estimated using Eqs. [7]
and [8], respectively, as



8760 bi
No .8760/ D
u0



8760 bi
Na .8760/ D
:
ua

[7]
[8]

The data used for the PHM of systems are the operation times and the values of covariates against each
operation time. The operation time may be uncensored
and/or censored. For a repairable system, the TBF may
be considered as uncensored data, whereas the operation time before overhauling may be considered as censored data. The parameters (a) are estimated by
maximizing the marginal, partial, or maximum likelihood functions (Kumar and Klefsj
o 1992). The partial
and marginal likelihood estimation gives the same
result for a. On the other hand, maximum likelihood
estimation of a is not effective for the model with a
large number of nuisance parameters. Therefore, the
marginal or partial likelihood estimation method is
widely used for estimation of a (Kumar and Klefsj
o
1992). Ties in the data set are handled by Breslow or
Efron approximations to the partial log-likelihood
(BIOST 515). If the value of a signicance test (p value)
is less than 0.05 (signicance level D 5 percent), then
the covariates have a signicant inuence on the failure
rate (Ahmad et al. 2011).

Identification of Covariates
The external covariates are identied from a brainstorming session between the expert operation and
Semiparametric Reliability Model

maintenance personnel and engineers (Ahmad et al.

2011). Adhikary et al. (2014) introduced ve external
covariates (operating environments) for the coal-red
thermal power plants based on the observations and
experience of operators and maintenance personnel. In
the present research work, the same covariates are considered for coal-red boiler tubes as follows:

1. Percentage of ash content in the coal (AP): In India,

generally the coals used have an ash content greater
than 30 percent. Field data show that about 35 percent of boiler tube failures are due to y ash erosion
and corrosion. Therefore, this is considered an important covariate in calculating the actual hazard rate.
2. Surrounding temperature (ST): According to the
experienced operators and maintenance persons,
sometimes fuels burn incompletely within the furnace and continue to burn near the vicinity of nal
superheater tubes (FSHTs), nal reheater tubes
(FRHTs), platen superheater tubes (PLSHTs), primary superheater tubes (PSHTs), and primary
reheater tubes (PRHTs), which lead to their failure
by overheating. Maintenance logbook data also
show that those boiler tubes fail by short time overheating or long time overheating. Hence, this is also
an important covariate.
3. pH factor of inside uid (pH): Some of the tubes
fail due to internal corrosion. According to the
expert operators and maintenance personnel, the
pH factor of water and steam should be maintained
at 9 and 10, respectively. A decrease in the pH factor
below these limits results in acidic corrosion and
increasing above these limits results in alkali corrosion. Practically, these values are difcult to maintain consistently. Hence, impact of this covariate
should be considered.
4. Operators skill (OPSK): Effective condition monitoring and regulating control parameters such as
temperature, pressure, etc., enhance the life of a
boiler. However, sufcient numbers of highly
skilled operators are not available regularly. Therefore, some failures take place due to unskilled operators and hence this factor is considered.
5. Maintenance personnels skill (MPSK): High quality
of maintenance improves the life of the components. Hence, maintenance personnel skills are
important covariates in analyzing reliability.
355

Downloaded by [187.252.115.227] at 12:51 18 March 2016

Case Study
The TBF (censored) and time before overhauling
(uncensored) data of the coal-red boiler tubes are collected from the maintenance logbook of a 250-MW
coal-red thermal power plant in the eastern region of
India. The tubes considered are FWTs, FSHTs, FRHTs,
PLSHTs, PSHTs, PRHTs, and economizer tubes
(ECOTs). First, the collected data were analyzed to
identify their independent and identical distribution
(i.i.d.) using trend tests and serial correlation tests
(Adhikary et al. 2012; Ghodrati 2005; Kumar and
Klefsj
o 1992). The tests reveal that all of the data are i.i.
d. For example, trend tests and serial correlation tests
of FWT are shown in the Figures 1 and 2, respectively.
Figure 1 shows that the data points cluster along a
straight line, representing no trend. Figure 2 shows that
the data points are scattered without any clear pattern, indicating no correlations. Hence, the data of FWT are i.i.d.
The Weibull distribution has been used to represent
equipment failure time because it is very exible and
the most commonly used model in failure data analysis
(Ghodrati and Kumar 2005). Kumar, Jain, and Gandhi
(2013) also supported that the Weibull distribution is
appropriate for increasingly degraded mechanical systems. Baseline parameters (u0 and b) of all of the boiler
tubes are estimated using the least-squares curve-tting
method (Adhikary et al. 2012; Kumar and Klefsj
o
1992). The estimated values are 9,160 hours and 2.04,
respectively (Table 1).
A brainstorming session was arranged with experienced operators, maintenance personnel, and managers
of the said power plant to assign values (qualitative) to
the considered covariates for each censored or uncensored operation time. Censored operation times are taken
as 0, whereas uncensored operation times are taken as 1.
The value of AP during an operation time is given as C1
when it is less than or equal to 10 percent; otherwise, 1.

FIGURE 2 Serial correlation test for TBF data of FWT.

When operating temperature is within the designed limit,

the value of ST is taken as C1; else 1. The pH value of
water indicates C1 when the pH factor ranges from 8.8 to
9.2; otherwise, 1. On the other hand, for steam it is
taken as C1 when the pH factor is between 9.8 and 10.2;
otherwise, 1. The value of OPSK is assigned as 1 for
an unskilled or semiskilled operator and C1 for a highly
skilled operator. Lastly, MPSK is valued as C1 for an
expert maintenance person; else, 1. According to these
assumptions, data tables containing operation times
(TBF) and codied values of covariates against each censored or uncensored TBF have been made. For example
Table A1 shows the codied values of covariates against
each censored or uncensored operation time of the FWT.
Identication of the signicant covariates and estimation
of their regression coefcients (a) in the PHM of the
boiler tubes were performed using XLSTAT software
(Addinsoft). Here a stepdown procedure is followed
where all covariates are considered rst. Later, if an insignicant value (signicance level is 95 percent) of any
covariate is found, it is eliminated from the subsequent
steps of calculation. Table A2 shows the results of FWT.
The covariates AP, ST, and OPSK have a signicant inuence. Using the estimated values of a from the table, following Eqs. [1] and [3], the actual hazard rate and
characteristics life can be written respectively as
2:04  t 2:04 1
.t; z/ D
:exp
9160 9160
 1:478 AP 1:4 ST 0:612 OPSK
[9]


 1=2:04
1:478 AP 1:4
:
ua D 9160 exp
ST 0:612 OPSK
[10]

FIGURE 1 Trend test for TBF data of FWT.

356

In the present case the coals used are low-grade

with an ash content greater than 30 percent. In
D. Das Adhikary et al.

Downloaded by [187.252.115.227] at 12:51 18 March 2016

TABLE 1 Analyzed Results

Subsystems

Significant covariates

FWT
FSHT
FRHT
PLSHT
PSHT
PRHT
ECOT

AP, ST, OPSK

ST
ST
AP, ST
ST
AP, ST
AP, ST, pH, MPSK

u0

ua

(MTBF)0

(MTBF)a

2.04
1.35
3.02
2.43
2.7
2.85
1.69

9,160
7,144
14,609
13,835
14,875
11,631
3,689

1,656
1,756
9,764
5,132
10,060
4,729
2,389

8,115
6,550
13,051
12,268
13,179
10,365
3,292

1,467
1,609
8,723
4,551
8,913
4,214
2,132

most of the cases the coals are moist and cannot be

dried sufciently, which results incomplete combustion in the furnace. The combustion continues up
to the region of ECOT. Hence, they are subjected
to temperatures above their design specications.
During preventive maintenance, skilled operators
and maintenance personnel are unavailable in the
plant. Hence, the covariates AP, ST, OPSK, and
MPSK are assigned as 1. The pH factors of the
feed water and steam are maintained within the prescribed limit. Therefore, C1 is assigned for the
covariate pH. Thus, the actual hazard rate and characteristics life can be calculated as

2:04  t 2:04 1
.t; z/ D
( 9160 9160
)
1:478 . 1/ 1:4
exp
:
. 1/ 0:612 . 1/

[11]

"

(
)# 1=2:04
1:478 . 1/ 1:4
ua D 9160 exp
. 1/ 0:612 . 1/
D 9160 0:180724 D 1655 .hr/:
[12]

In order to describe the proportionality of the hazard rates, h(t, z)high ash and h(t, z)low ash are the corresponding hazard rates assumed where the ash content
is greater than and less than the considerable limit
respectively. Then, putting the AP values of 1 and
C1 respectively in Eq. [11] and keeping the other
Semiparametric Reliability Model

N0(8760)
0.91
1.32
0.21
0.33
0.24
0.45
4.31

Na(8760)
29.95
8.76
0.72
3.67
0.69
5.79
8.99

covariates the same, their hazard ratio can be calculated

as
.t; z/high ash
.t; z/low as
expf 1:478 . 1/ 1:4 . 1/ 0:612 . 1/g
D
expf 1:478 . C 1/ 1:4 . 1/ 0:612 . 1/g
exp.3:49/
D 19:2
D
exp.0:534/
[13]

Equation [13] shows that the hazard rate of the tube

under high ash content is 19.2 times (constant with
time) higher than the hazard rate under considerable
ash content under similar condition of the other covariates. It is also found that the hazard rate of the tube
under high temperature (above the designed limit) is
16.4 times more than the hazard rate under considerable temperature. The hazard rate of the tube under
unskilled operators is 3.4 times greater than the hazard
rate under skilled operators. Hence, the proportionality
assumption is correct.
Figure 3 shows the result of graphical tests for the
covariate AP as strata. Figure 3 shows that the plots are
parallel. This demonstrates that the assumption of proportionality is correct.
In the same way, the proportionality assumption is
tested for all subsystems and it is found that the
assumption is justied.
With the help of estimated b, u0, and ua, the MTBF
of the tubes ignoring and considering the covariates is
calculated using Eqs. [4] and [5], respectively. The
expected number of failures of the tubes per year ignoring and considering the covariates are predicted following Eqs. [7] and [8], respectively. The results are shown
in Table 1.
357

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

FIGURE 3 Graphical test for proportionality assumption of the

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hazard rates.

Table 1 shows that out of the ve external covariates, AP and ST are the most signicant covariates
because most of the subsystems are inuenced by
them. By considering the inuence of the external
covariates, the characteristic life (ua) and corresponding (MTBF)a of each tube are extensively reduced
and the corresponding probability of failure is
greater than the expected failures under parametric
reliability model.

CONCLUSIONS
In the present research work, ve different operating
environments (covariates) that inuence reliability are
considered for coal-red boiler tubes. The WPHM, a
semiparametric reliability model, is applied to estimate
their degree of inuence. The goodness-of-t test shows
that the PHM assumption of the failure data is correct.
The case study reveals that most of the tubes are signicantly affected by AP and ST compared to the other
three covariates. Hence, the inuence of these two covariates is more signicant for consistent reliability calculation. The characteristic life (ua) and the MTBF are
drastically reduced when considering the inuence of
the operating environments. Preventive maintenance
planning along with corresponding spare parts provisioning based on these reduced characteristic life (ua)
and MTBF will be effective. This study will help the
industry to plan preventive maintenance planning and
procurement of spare parts in a cost-effective manner.
358

Debasis Das Adhikary is presently working as an

assistant professor in the Mechanical Engineering
Department, Haldia Institute of Technology, Haldia,
India. He is pursuing a Ph.D. from Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. He obtained his B.E. degree in
mechanical engineering from the Institution of Engineers (India) in 2002 and a masters in mechanical engineering from Bengal Engineering & Science University,
Shibpur, India, in 2006. He is an associate member of
the Institute of Engineers (India). He worked as an
assistant manager in the Vendor Development Department of Ural India Ltd., an automobile company, Haldia, West Bengal, India. His active areas of interests are
reliability and maintenance engineering, coal-red
power plants, and solar thermal power plants. He has
published and reviewed many papers in various international reputed journals.
Goutam Kumar Bose is presently working as a professor in the Mechanical Engineering Department, Haldia Institute of Technology, Haldia, India. He
obtained a Ph.D. in production engineering from the
Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. He has obtained a
masters in mechanical engineering from the Bengal
Engineering & Science University, Shibpur, India. He
worked as an assistant professor in the Department of
Mechanical Engineering of the College of Engineering
& Management, Kolaghat. He was an engineer in the
R&D Centre of M/s Hindustan Motors Ltd., West
Bengal, India. His active areas of interests are reliability
and maintenance engineering, metal cutting, nonconventional machining, and industrial management.
Dipankar Bose is presently working as a professor of
mechanical engineering, National Institute of Technical Teachers Training and Research, Salt Lake, Kolkata,
India. He obtained his B.E. degree in mechanical engineering from Calcutta University in 1982, masters in
mechanical engineering from the Jadavpur University
in 1984 and Ph.D. in engineering from Jadavpur University in 2001. Dr. Bose has 22 years of teaching experience in the eld of mechanical engineering. He has a
large number of publications in national and international journals in the broad eld of mechanical engineering. He has reviewed various internationally
reputed journals. He is a life member of the Indian
Society of Technical Education. He has delivered a
series of lectures in different national and international
forums.
D. Das Adhikary et al.

Downloaded by [187.252.115.227] at 12:51 18 March 2016

Souren Mitra is a professor and Head of the Production Engineering Department at Jadavpur University,
Kolkata, India. His research areas include reliability
and maintenance engineering, nontraditional machining process, nanomachining, and advanced
manufacturing systems. He has published more than
50 research papers in international and national journals and conferences. Several Ph.D. and master of engineering theses have been completed under his
guidance. He is a recipient of the Research Award of
the University Grand Commission, New Delhi, and
has completed three sponsored research projects as the
principal investigator. Dr. Mitra is a member of the
Institute of Engineers (India). He has attended several
international conferences abroad.

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359

APPENDIX
TABLE A1 Operation Times of FWT and Codified Values of Influencing Covariates

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TBF

Censored/uncensored

10,580
7,640
8,600
5,900
10,500
12,500
2,744
11,700
12,400
8,960
4,793
12,400
2,970
3,200
9,200
4,500
10,918
5,597
5,045
6,500
2,300
17,000

1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0

AP

ST

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

pH

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

OPSK

MPSK

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

TABLE A2 Regression Coefficients (a) of FWT (Parameters/Coefficients Are Estimated by Maximizing the Partial Likelihood Function)a
Coefficients (a)
of the covariates

Estimated
value

AP
ST
OPSK

1.478
1.400
0.612

Standard
error

Walds
chi-square

Pr > chi2

Hazard
ratio

Hazard ratio
lower bound (95%)

Hazard ratio
upper bound (95%)

0.597
0.526
0.435

6.135
7.097
1.980

0.013
0.008
0.159

0.228
0.247
0.542

0.071
0.088
0.231

0.735
0.691
1.272

Significance level: 5%. Ties handling: Breslows method. Stop conditions: iterations: 100; convergence: 0.0001. Model selection: backward.

360

D. Das Adhikary et al.