Internal Migration & Urbanization-Challenges in Population and Development in Pakistan by Migration Research Group TRUST November 2015

Internal Migration and Urbanization:
MIGRATION RESEARCH GROUP

Islamabad (Trust)
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization;

Trends and Consequences in Pakistan
Table of Contents
MIGRATION RESEARCH GROUP
Islamabad (Trust)
Migration Research Group Trust (MRG) Islamabad is a Research oriented group working on
the important demographic dynamics of migration. MRG was founded in 2003 as an affiliate of
Sustainable Development Poverty Alleviation Watch (SDPAW) but it was registered as an
independent body under Trust ACT in 2011. MRG was formed to move forward the research
and policy agenda on migration and its related socio-economic effects. The Trust works as an
independent group of professionals with the objectives to create awareness about the key issues
and challenges in the context of migration, urbanization and poverty for addressing the overall
development goals. It also endeavors to establish a strong and sustainable partnership/network
among the researchers, data producers and analysts by linking universities and other
institutions working on migration, urbanization and population and development issues.
2015 Migration Research Group TRUST (MRG), Islamabad.
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... iii

Introduction .......................................................................................................................... iv
CHAPTER ONE
Overview: The State of Internal Migration and Urbanization in Pakistan:
Trends and Consequences
Naushin Mehmood and Sabiha H. Syed................................................................................ 1
CHAPTER TWO
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization in Pakistan:
The case of Punjab
Sabiha H. Syed, and Naushin Mehmood............................................................................. 17
CHAPTER THREE
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization, Trends and Consequences
in Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Niaz Ahmad, Raza Rehman and Sabiha H. Syed ................................................................ 25
CHAPTER FOUR
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization Trends and Consequences
in Province of Sindh
Rabia Sidat , Sabiha H. Syed, and Rahat Erum................................................................... 45
CHAPTER FIVE
The State of Internal Migration and its impact on Urban Governance:
The Case of Baluchistan
Saeed Shafqat and Hajira Zafar........................................................................................... 63
REFERENCES.................................................................................................................... 85
The United Nation Population Fund is an international development agency that promotes the
right of every women, man, and child to enjoy a life of health and equal opportunity. UNFPA
supports countries in using population data for policies and programmes to reduce poverty and
to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, every young person is free of HIV
and AIDS, and every girl and woman is treated with dignity and respect.
Serena Business Complex,
2nd Level, G-5/1,
Islamabad-Pakistan
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Number and percentage of life-time migrants in Pakistan, 1951-1998
Table 1.2: Migrant Population at a Glance from different data sources in Pakistan
Table 1.3: Reported Reasons for migration from various data sources
Table 2.1: Percentage Distribution of Migrants by direction of Move
Table 2.2: Distribution of Migrants by Direction of Move, 1996-97---2006-07
Table 3.1: KPK Population and growth rate in year from 1951-1998
Table 3.2: Urban Localities by Province size 1961-1998 and annual Growth
Table 3.3: Number of Urban Localities by size, Population and average Annual Growth rate
(1961-1998) in KPK
i
Table 3.4: Urban localities by Population size 1998 in KPK

Table 3.5: Reported Reasons for migration in Pakistan
Table 3.6: Migrant Population of Pakistan and KPK by reason of migration in %
Table 3.7: Gender Composition of Rural to urban migrations by Intra and Inter province
move in KPK
Table 3.8: Inter and Intra Migration of KPK on Provisional level 2010-2011
Table 3.9: Total Population displaced during military operations in KPK
Table 4.1: Population of Sindh Inter- Censual growth period, 1951-1998
Table 4.2: District in Sindh Province
Table 4.3: Annual Growth of ten cities of Sindh and its population, 1981-1998
Table 4.4: Status of Migrant Population in urban areas of Pakistan as a whole and its
provinces' 1981-1998
Table 4.5: Inter- Provincial flows of Migration into Sindh
Table 4.6: Urban Localities by Population size 1961-1998 and annual Growth
Table 4.7: Poverty Incidence across the Sindh, 1998/99, 2000/01 and 2004/05
Table 4.8: Population 1998 by urban, rural and gender in Sindh
Table 4.9: Population in Sindh by Religion in Percentage (1998 Census)
Table 5.1: Provincial Distribution by Destination (Inter and Intra Provincial) %
Table 5.2: Provincial Distribution of Migrants by Origin (Inter and Intra Provincial
Migration)
Table 5.3: Migrant Population of Baluchistan
Table 5.4: Total and Urban Population of Quetta by ethnicity (1901 and 1998)
Table 5.5: Population of Quetta by Ethnic Group in Percentages
Table 5.6: Comparative overview of urban centers in Baluchistan (Demographics)
Table 5.7: Reasons for Migration in Baluchistan 2012-2013
Table 5.8: Unemployment Rates in Baluchistan (2011-2013)
Table 5.9: District wise Population of Afghan Refugees 2014
Table 5.10: Target/Sectarian killings 2007-2012
Table 5.11: Total Incidents in Baluchistan from 2011 to 2013
Table 5.12: Total lives lost in various acts of violence (2003 to 2009)
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: List of Major cities in Punjab
Figure 2.2: Rural-Urban Migration % moving to each other Province
Figure 2.3: Urban-Urban Migration % moving to each other Province
Figure 3.1: Rural-Urban Migration % moving to each other Province
Figure 3.2: State of Afghan Refugees in Provinces of Pakistan
Figure 5.1: Urbanization trend for Baluchistan
Figure 5.2: Rural Urban Population
Figure 5.3: percentage Distribution of Afghan Population across District and Camps
District 5.4: District wise percentage share of Afghan Population 2014
ii
State of Internal Migration

and Urbanization in Pakistan:
Trends and Consequences
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This book is envisaged in the context of UNFPA's activities in the area of Population and
development strategies to highlight the importance of the role of Migration in the sustainable
development in the country. The aim is to sensitize the key stakeholders including
policymakers, professionals, academics researches and students to recognize the essential role
of internal migration in the development. It is important to better understand the key
demographic dynamics of migration in policymaking and planning. United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) provided support to Migration Research Group (MRG) in undertaking the
studies in four provinces. The policy directions and recommendations provided through the
studies are in the planning of sustainable development policies at federal and provisional level.
The four chapters in this report were originally prepared as Provincial Reports which included
the deliberations held in each provincial seminar and consultations held in the provinces.
Provincial level seminars were organized in collaboration with Urban Unit (UU), Government
of Punjab, Urban Policy Center Unit, Govt. of KPK, Pakistan Academy of Rural Development
(PARD), Peshawar Directorate of Urban Policy & Strategic Planning (UP & SP) Government
of Sindh, Karachi Institute of Technology and Entrepreneurship (KITE), Karachi and Center
for Public Policy and Governance (CPPG) Forman Christian Collage University Lahore. The
research and seminars were completed with financial support from United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) from 2012-2014.
Migration Research Group Trust [MRG] is grateful to the partners in Punjab, Sindh, KPK and
Baluchistan and two institutes, Karachi Institute of Technology and Entrepreneurship (KITE),
Karachi and Center for Public Policy and Governance (CPPG) in Forman Christian Collage
University Lahore for their active interest and support.
Substantial logistical support before and during the studies were provided by, Migration
Research Group (MRG) Research Associates Ms. Rahat Erum, Ms. Rabia Sidat in Islamabad
and Sani-e-Zehra in Lahore. Ms. Lubna Tajik in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Professor Sikander
Mehdi in Karachi, Dr. Saeed Shafqat and Ms. Hajira Zafar for the study on Baluchistan.
Migration Research Group (MRG) is grateful to its Trustees and Advisory committee members
especially Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gillani and Dr. Ghulam Muhammad Arif for their valueable input and
support throughout this work.
iii
INTRODUCTION
There has been an overall rise in the Internal Migration and Urbanization around the world
during the early decades of the 21st century. The UN projection on global level Migration and
Urbanization indicates that the rapidly increasing urban population is expected to grow in two
decades from a less than 50 percent by a solid 10 percent to make it a majority of 60 percent
living in urban areas. This growth will be significant in developing countries. As a
consequence, in countries like Pakistan, poverty, inequalities and social exclusion have a stark
urban face. Massive slums are rapidly growing and around in the large cities of Pakistan like
Karachi, Hyderabad, Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Peshawar, and Quetta and others. This large
scale concentration of population has linkages to poverty, socio-cultural dynamics, economic
environment and politics and overall sustainable development.
The present compilation comprises of a collection of four studiescorresponding to the four
provinces of Pakistanon the state of Internal Migration and Urbanization in Pakistan. The
aim of the exercise was to highlight the significance of internal migration, urbanization and its
various aspects in Pakistan and also to create awareness about the role of internal migration in
the context of population, urbanization and development. The report focuses on suggesting
policy framework to cope with the phenomenon of Internal Migration and Urbanization in the
provinces of Punjab, Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan.
In order to meet the goals of the project, four separate analytical studies were undertaken
sequentially starting from the province of Punjab followed by KPK, Sindh and Baluchistan.
The studies were later put together to get an overall picture of internal migration and
urbanization in Pakistan. The synthesis of the studies revealed notable differences in the
undercurrents or internal migration and urbanization issues. Globally, census has been
considered the most pertinent source of information on internal migration and urbanization. In
Pakistan, unfortunately census has not been undertaken since 1998; however, studies based on
previous census data have been consulted as priority, followed by PISLM, and Labor Force
Surveys. Several other studies have been reviewed for analysis, which too are based on
secondary sources. However, few small scale surveys undertaken by certain researchers on
focused issues related to migration and urbanization have been reviewed and analyzed to
provide a more comprehensive portrait of the situation as well as to better understand the
phenomenon of Internal Migration and Urbanization issues in the country. The federal
government has manifested a state neglect towards population policies and the demographic
dynamic. The quality of life of the people in rural areas is neglected and now the rapidly
increasing urban population is likely to face the same fate if urgent measures are not taken to
address the internal migration and urbanization issues. The Provincial governments in Punjab,
Sindh, KPK and Baluchistan have taken some initiatives in their planning and development
departments by sector reforms alone which can be considered as a first step towards
improvement.
direction between and within provinces and districts, leaving large gaps in assessing the
situation of internal migration and its linkages with population growth, urbanization and other
sectors of development.
The recent 2012-13 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey collected information on inmigration as well as out-migration among individuals who had lived in the interviewed
households in the past decade and have moved to other areas. In view of emerging trends in
migratory movements within Pakistan, questions on the status of in-migrants and out-migrants
were included for the first time to assess the magnitude and characteristics of the migrant
population. This survey provided useful information on some of the latest migration status of
household members. An in-depth analysis of the data would yield much needed information to
fill some gaps in migration statistics.
The complex problems related to individual provinces have been conceptualized at each
provincial level. The recommendations are derived from information and knowledge presented
at the seminars held in these provinces. In the end, we have drawn together the main concepts
and arguments in each provincial chapter and have linked together in a Federal framework set
out in the policy briefs.
Some of the issues common to all provinces discovered by the studies are:
Rapid and unplanned urbanization prevails which is increasing consistently. There are
visible growth patterns of small, medium and large size cities and towns.
Natural disasters like floods and famines and ongoing militancy in KPK are causing
forced inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration of effected populations.
There is a nationwide trend of rapid urbanization due to various factors including
migration, natural increase, and area annexation/reclassification.
The quality of life of population in big and small cities is deteriorating due to urban
sprawl, land grabbing, slum settlements and lack of planning and development in the
urban centers. This has led to deterioration of all sorts of systems and decadence of
infrastructure.
The rise in the Internal Migration has been noticed by policy makers but they have not been able
to make effective policies in this regard; one oblivious reason has been the non-availability of
census data with just four censuses since independence and the last one being held in 1998. The
few studies that focus on internal migration situation are primarily based on population census
data and some demographic and labour force surveys conducted over the years. Information
on internal migratory movements from the census data is limited for estimating the flow and
iv
Overview:
The State of Internal Migration and
Urbanization in Pakistan:
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
CHAPTER ONE
Overview: The State of Internal Migration and
Urbanization in Pakistan: Issues and Challenges
Naushin Mehmood and Sabiha H. Syed
Overview
The study of internal migration in Pakistan is an area of crucial importance in population and
development dynamics, particularly in the contemporary phase of increased mobility and
globalization. Movement of people from one place to another within the country has strong
effects on the economy and the society in terms of the changes in labour market opportunities,
family structures, education, health and environment management, security systems and
governance. The rising pace of migration toward urban areas in search of better economic
opportunities and its consequences for the economy and society at large make it imperative to
understand the dynamics of push and pull factors in the process of migratory movements. It is
observed that limited employment generation in the formal urban economy, low rate of
infrastructural investment in public sector and volatility of agriculture sector with lack of
livelihood opportunities and rising poverty are causing large exodus of rural population to
major urban centres, particularly the young and educated ones. The capacity of the cities and
towns to assimilate the migrants by providing employment, access to land, social services and
basic amenities such as water, electricity and sewerage are limited. Furthermore, there is a
continuing trend towards large concentration in ever-larger urban agglomerations and big
cities, leading to regionally unbalanced urbanization, emergence of squatter settlements, and
also distortions in urban hierarchy. All these migratory and rapid urbanization trends are
resulting in rise in urban poverty and social discontent with most of the migrants being
absorbed within informal sector of the economy.
It is noted that the province of Punjab with the largest share of Pakistan's total population (56%)
and large urban agglomerations has exhibited a huge influx of migrants from its rural and poor
districts to major cities, resulting in exacerbating the problems of overcrowding and excessive
burden on the already over-stretched resources and social services. However, evidence on the
emerging trends of internal migratory movements with its likely effects on the economic and
social well-being of people and other sectors of development is limited. This makes it
imperative to identify the emerging trends and challenges arising from increased flow of
internal migratory movements, with particular reference to Punjab, and find workable solutions
and interventions through informed and effective policy and programme choices.
This paper examines the internal migration patterns in Pakistan with special reference to flows
and trends in the province of Punjab. Based on the evidence and information generated from
various data sources and research studies, the emerging issues and concerns of internal
migration and urbanization and its impact on Punjab are highlighted, providing the basis for
policy consideration. Before we analyze the particular situation in Punjab, the overall trends
and availability of data on migration and urbanization are discussed.
2. Situation Analysis
Migration has been a continued process in the history of Pakistan and has played a significant
role in shaping the size and distribution of population. During the past decades, large number of
cross-border migrants and refugees along with growing number of rural people moved towards
urban areas as a consequence of poverty and unemployment or displacements by disasters of
earthquakes and floods in recent years. It is estimated that millions of people migrated to
Pakistan and from at the time of its independence in 1947 and most of them settled in the
provinces of Punjab and Sindh setting the benchmark for future population growth and
urbanization in the ciuntry.
The phenomenon of internal migration has historically been a less researched area, especially
in population and development context of Pakistan. The few studies that focus on internal
migration situation are primarily based on population census data and some demographic and
labour force surveys conducted over the years. Information on internal migratory movements
from the census data is limited for estimating the flow and direction between and within
provinces and districts, leaving large gaps in assessing the situation of internal migration and its
linkages with population growth, urbanization and other sectors of development. The available
research evidence on internal migration is mostly based on macro level indicators and very few
studies are conducted at the micro level to assess its impact on individuals and households'
economic and social well-being (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000; Arif, 2005). Moreover, variability
in the type and scope of data collected in different censuses and sample surveys limits the
possibility of comparing results and capturing trends and rates of internal migratory
movements in Pakistan.
Based on the census results, total number of internal migrants has increased from about 1.40
million in 1951 to 8.37 million in 1998. Of those, about 68 percent moved within the province
and 32 percent to other provinces in 1998 (Table 1.1). The figures in Table 1.1 give an aggregate
picture of the volume of migratory movements over the past decades and provide the basis to
study the processes and dynamics related to the causes and consequences of internal migration
and its linkages with social and economic development of the country.
Table 1.1: Number and Percentage of Life-time Migrants in Pakistan, 1951-1998
Census Year
1961
1972
1981
1998
Total Life-time Migrants 7.755

(millions)
Total Internal Migrants
1.397
(100.0)
8.778
10.130
9.960
10.830
2.826
(100.0)
4.436
(100.0)
5.173
(100.0)
8.369
(100.0)
Within Province
0.953
(68.2)
1.937
(68.5)
2.579
(58.1)
3.436
(66.4)
5.705
(68.2)
Other Provinces
0.444
(31.8)
0.889
(31.5)
1.858
(41.9)
1.736
(33.6)
2.663
(31.8)
Type of Migrants
1951
Source: Karim and Nasar (2004); Figures in parentheses are percentages.

4
Based on the census results, the situation of internal migration during the 1960s and 70s
depicted that every 7th person residing in the 12 largest cities of Pakistan had come from a
different district which resulted in increasing the population of those cities from 33.4 % in 1961
to 50.1 % in 1972. This situation points towards increased rural to urban movement in the
country during the last 3-4 decades (Helbock, 1975b). The findings from the 1979-80
Population, Migration and Labour Force (PLM) survey also indicated a similar pattern that
internal migration is becoming rural to urban and long distance in Pakistan (Irfan, 1981).
Estimates of internal migration from various data sources including sample surveys show that
internal migrants constituted 21.5 percent of population (PIHS, 1998-99) compared with
13.5% in the Labour Force Survey (LFS, 1996-97) and only 8.2% according to the 1998 census
data (Memon, 2005). Based on the pooled sample of LFS data for the years 2005-06, 2006-07
and 2007-08, internal migrants figure stands at 12 percent with about one-third of them having
migrated in the past ten years (Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010). It has been argued that a
higher rate of migration depicted by the PIHS data may be due to the fact that inter-district
movement of people was taken into account whereas the other data sources did not cover that
(Table 2).
Table 1.2: Migrant Population at a Glance from Different Data Sources in Pakistan
Number of Migrants
Migrants as
percentage of
population
Rural/urban
distribution of
population (%)
Rural/urban
distribution of
migrants (%)
PIHS 1998-99
15,645
21.5
LFS 1996-97
9,976
13.5
Census 1998
10,829,264
8.2
69.9/30.1
65.2/34.8
67.5/32.5
55.6/44.4
40.9/59.1
36.2/63.8
Source: Memon (2005)
Key Issues and Challenges

Many studies have increasingly recognized that migratory movements from rural and less
developed regions to more developed areas provide opportunities as well as challenges for
migrants that distinguish between 'migration for better income' and 'migration for survival'.
Migration provides chances of upward mobility in terms of having better employment, access
to wider social services, more knowledge and skills, but at the same time creates risks and
vulnerabilities for migrants at the place of destination if not managed effectively and in a
gainful manner. Areview of literature and situation analysis of the state of internal migration in
Pakistan has revealed a number of issues and challenges that has affected individuals, families
and the socio-economic development of the country. Some pertinent issues and concerns in
studying internal migration dynamics and the resultant challenges are discussed below.
i) Inadequate Data and its Limitations

The oldest and most conventional source of data on migration is the census statistics in
Pakistan. According to the census definition, a person enumerated at different place than
5
his/her place of birth is regarded as a life-time migrant that gives only an aggregate picture of
migration at one point in time. While the census identifies 'lifetime' migrants by their districts of
origin, the LFS data provides further disaggregation between 'rural' and 'urban' locations of
origin, allowing for more precise analysis of rural-to-urban, rural to-rural, and urban-to-urban
migration flows. The census data limits to analyze rural-urban migratory flows and intradistrict movements as the questions regarding both the place of birth and the last place of
residence are not asked at the district level. Further, the changing definition of 'urban' and
'rural' in different censuses constrain to capture trends and variations in migratory flows
(Gazdar, 2003; Arif, 2003; Memon, 2005). With the changing socio-economic conditions and
increasing migratory movements towards urban areas during the past two decades, the growing
cities have stretched to adjacent rural areas, thereby changing the structure and boundaries of
being 'urban' and 'rural'. An in-depth analysis of the 1998 census data has revealed an underestimation of urban population in Pakistan (Arif, 2003).
The challenge is to develop an improved definition of 'urban' to be able to estimate the precise
urban and rural distribution of population. To get precise estimates on internal migration, the
operational definition of 'urban' area and 'distance of migration', however, is encountered with
some limitations. For example inter-administrative unit be it a district or province is
regarded as long distance movement without taking into account the actual distance covered by
the migrants. Global Information System (GIS) along with other spatial econometrics
techniques may be employed to get a valid measure of distance of movement.
The next census due to be undertaken in 2008 has been delayed, thereby limiting the possibility
to use precise population and its distribution estimates at national, provincial and district levels
for development planning and policy making.
The survey data is also limited in scope to cover all aspects and issues of internal migration. To
deal with these issues, panel data sets are needed to capture trends and linkages of migration
with poverty, employment, education, health and environment.
ii) Forced Migration Issues

A related issue on internal migratory movements is the displaced population and seasonal
migrants for which no systematic information is available on the magnitude, living conditions
and impact of migration on their lives. It is estimated that 1-2 million persons were displaced
due to floods in Punjab and inhabited in insecure and unhygienic conditions. Migration due to
displacements in the recent past has changed the paradigm of migration and development
framework that demands more in-depth qualitative studies for informed policy decision
making at provincial and local levels.
iii) Rising Rural to Urban Migration

The situation analysis has revealed that due to decreasing dependency on agricultural sector
and reduced incomes from farming, the rural population continued to move to cities, leading to
an increase in urbanization. Evidence shows that Rural to Urban migration affects the level of
urbanization and growth of cities resulting in uneven spread of urban population among
provinces. In Punjab, about 22 percent of its total population lives in Lahore and about 50
percent lives in five large cities. Growth of cities is closely linked with migration as the 1998
census data reveals that about a quarter of the population of Lahore consists of migrants,
whereas in Multan, the migrants' share in the total population is 19 percent (Arif, 2009).
6
iv) Gendered - Migration related Issues

Patterns of migration in Pakistan, especially Punjab province have indicated rising trend of
movements towards large cities that generates a series of issues and concerns, including
problems related to job security, high cost of living, housing and access to other social services,
environmental degradation, social conflict and adaptation of the migrants themselves to urban
way of life. A significant number of young males are moving to cities for better economic
opportunities and education. Evidence from some micro-level and qualitative research studies
indicates that many of them live in difficult conditions and poor migrants are compelled to stay
in slums and less secure accommodation. Consequently, issues of 'identity crisis' and
'stigmatization', as well as emergence of 'gated communities' and 'urban sprawl' are arising in
big cities (Hasan and Raza, 2009; Hussain, 2011; Rahat, 2012). This situation raises questions
and challenges as to whether the cultural divide is becoming sharper among the city dwellers
and rural to urban migrants.
It is also observed that increasing number of women move to urban areas to seek work and
educational opportunities besides migrating on account of marriage and family reunification
(Memon, 2005; Hamid, 2010). Information on gender dimensions of migration has focused
primarily on adding women as a discriminated and vulnerable group, particularly in relation
to 'bonded labour' or displacement due to conflict and trafficking.
It is noted that female migration is more common in cities in central Punjab Lahore,
Faisalabad and Gujranwala. In Karachi, Islamabad, Peshawar and Multan, migration is
relatively more male dominated. Moreover, females economic migrants constitute around 1315 percent of total women migrants and those from poor socio-economic background face
problems in finding employment and safe housing that compels many to work as domestic
servants, take up low paid jobs and get absorbed in the informal and construction sector. It is
therefore challenging to create employment opportunities for growing number of female
migrants and undertake initiatives to accommodate them in labour market and utilize their full
potential to integrate them in the socio-economic development of the country. To address issues
of gender and migration, it is important to improve and strengthen gender disaggregated
information on internal migratory movements to better understand the linkages between
gender, migration and development.
v) Urban Infrastructure and Housing Problems

One of the key issues in urban migration relates to provision of urban infrastructure, public
services and housing. In most of the major cities of Punjab, urban planning in response to
migration to urban areas has been inadequate and mismanaged. Over the next 20 years, urban
population in Pakistan is likely to double with the large concentration in metropolitan cities of
Punjab. It is estimated that urban population is likely to increase from 1998 census reporting of
32 percent to 50 percent by 2030 (Haider, 2006). The infrastructure deficit in terms of public
health care, public transport, security, and good quality public schools and the urban decay in
terms of traffic congestion, inadequate solid waste management, water supply, housing and
related utilities manifest the severity of urban challenges in Pakistan, especially in urban
Punjab.
Under the Devolution Plan, a new system of local governance is in place that requires
coordination among local and community level development departments to
address
7
challenges of housing and land development schemes.
vi) Emergence of Squatter Settlements

Increasing rate of rural to urban migration has compelled many migrant communities to establish
squatter settlements and live in urban slums without infrastructure support and other social
amenities of life. Over the years, many unregulated settlements known as Katchi abadis have
emerged in big and crowded cities like Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and other growing cities in
Punjab, and Karachi in Sindh due to costly and acute shortage of housing for immigrants. Some of
those settlements have been evicted to make way for upper-income housing, construction of
infrastructure and acquisition of public land leaving many in vulnerable and insecure condition.
The issue of urban housing and urban slums is recognized as a poverty issue in the Poverty
Reduction Strategy Paper 2010. It is estimated that 35% to 50% of the urban population reside in
katchi abadis (Gazdar, 2009)---an estimate signalling alarm for the authorities in management of
cities and its housing conditions. This also raises question about the validity of the estimate given
the inadequate definition and criteria of identifying squatter settlement or an urban slum. It is
important to look into this challenging situation and come up with appropriate measures to define
precisely various types of urban slums.
Some challenges arising out of rapid growth of big cities and urban expansion are:
Emergence of katchi abadis and unregulated squatter settlements
Economic inequalities
Urban sprawl and suburbanisation
Social and cultural divide
Environmental hazards
Unbalanced urban growth
Land grabbing
Rise in unemployment and urban poverty
These challenges from migrants point of view often raise issues of vulnerability and the rights of
migrants. Whether the migration in question is due to push factors of poverty, conflict or
persecution, or due to pull factors such as economic opportunity or security, it is expected the net
effect of migration is an improvement in the well-being of the migrant.
vii) Research Gaps and Policy Issues

Given the diverse forms and types of internal migration and several streams of discourse--economic, social and political---a number of research gaps and policy issues are apparent in the
study of migration. First of all, push factors of internal migration have been ignored to some extent.
Most of the research has been conducted on the place of destination with little focus on the
previous or original place of migrants, thereby ignoring those factors which compelled people to
move and its effect on the families left behind.
Information on the difficulties and challenges faced by people in making decision to migrate and
the process of departing from their place of origin are not clearly evident from these data and
research work, missing out the role of social networks and hierarchies in the patterns of migration
and assimilation in the labour market.
Although the above mentioned issues are not exhaustive, however, keeping in view the limited data
and research evidence available, the emerging links between migration and development are
examined in the context of the push factors and the reported reasons to move to a more developed
place which are discussed below.
Internal Migration, Urbanization and Development Linkages
As the migration process is closely related with poverty, urbanization and

development process, most policy documents are silent on migration as a
national issue. The PRSP an official document regarding poverty reduction
policy does not address this issue discretely (Memon 2005). As rising trends in
rural-urban and urban-urban migration have resulted in over-crowding of cities,
increase in unemployment, poverty, and growth of slums in Punjab, it is critical
to understand the linkages between migration, urbanization and its implications
for development.
Although a substantial body of quantitative work exists on estimating internal
migratory patterns, its trends and direction of flows, there are large gaps in
quantifying its linkages with related development indicators and addressing
policy questions. The links between migration, poverty and development have
largely been recognized in the context of international migration and the
remittances having positive effects on household incomes and the economy, but
these effects remain less visible for internal migratory movements. Of all the
urban in-migrants, about 43% of lifetime migrants gave moving with household
head as their reason for migration. The second most frequent reason (17%) was
marriage, followed by employment (12%) and business (9%). The majority of
migrants, therefore, are people who migrate for family-related reasons (Table
5). The LFS data also give a similar pattern on the reasons to migrate indicating
family migrants or those who migrate due to marriage as the major reason,
whereas only 20% of the migrants move due to some economic reason.
However, it is mainly the desire to improve economic status that motivates
people to move as compared to benefits of social services and public utilities (
Memon, 2005; Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010).
Reason for Migration
LFS
1996 97
Percentage of Migrants
PIHS
LFS
Census
1998
1997-98
1998
Job transfer
7.1
2.8
5.5
12.1
Finding a job
10.0
12.5
8.9
NA
Business
4.3
2.8
4.4
8.8
Education
0.9
1.1
0.5
1.2
Health
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.01
Marriage
26.1
41.2
26.1
17.0
liWith
nkages
and addressed the question w het19.8
her intern22.3
al migra tion23.7
contributes 42.8
to poverty
family
reReturn
duction---a
factor
important
for
achieving
sustainable
development
goals.
It
is
c
o
nt
ended that
home
6.7
3.1
9.3
1.1
IOthers
nternal migration has the potential to c ontri25.0
bute to de5.7
velopment 21.4
in a number of16.9
ways. B y
sProportion
upplementing
migrants'
earnings
through
o
f
f
farm
la
bo
u
r
in
urban
a
r
eas,
rural
ho
us
e
holds
of economic migrants
21.3
18.1
18.8
20.9 may
diinversify
their
sources
of
income.
In
the
s
h
or
t
term,
m
i
gration
m
a
y
result
in
the
loss
of local
Migrant sub -sample
fi%
nancial
and human
capital,inbutfullsampl
it can aielso2.3
be beneficial
to the1.7
long-term
of economic
migrants
4.7 and contribute
1.7
Source: Khan and Shahnaz (2000) and Memon

9
While economic migrants constitute up to 20 per cent of total migrants, depending on the
source of data used, the proportion of women as economic migrants is estimated at 15.7
percent (PIHS, 1998) and 13.1 percent (LFS,1998) as against 63 percent and 54.2 percent,
respectively in the non-economic category. This suggests that while female migrants
may not possess the requisite skills and educational levels to find a job, labour markets in
Pakistan may also be segmented along gender lines. However, this does not preclude
female migrants to join labour market in the informal sector and contribute to the family
income, even though the reported reason for migration may be marital or family. This is
supported by the fact that the percentage of migrant women working for wages is almost
double the percentage of non-migrant women working for wages (Memon. 2005).
The 1998 census reveals that spouses of head of the household are the leading long-term
migrants followed by the daughters. Among males migrants, one-third of the migrants are
head of households sons with one-fifth of the migrants as main bread-earner in the
household (Karim and Nasar, 2004). Evidence from LFS data shows that female migrants
dominate all four types of moves; especially they outnumber their male counterparts in
the urban-urban migration in the country, indicating that almost half of the female
migrants move due to their marriages or with the family (Hamid, 2010).
The majority of the male migrants moving towards urban areas have at least 6 years of
schooling according to 1996-97 LFS survey (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000). On the other hand,
majority of the people who move between rural areas and female migrants have no formal
education. The emerging pattern indicates that better educated people move towards urban
centers, whereas illiterate people move to rural areas (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000). Migration
remains age selective as young people mainly move towards urban areas whereas there is
substantial percentage of older people also around 30 to 35 percent who move to rural
areas (Arif, 2005). These findings support findings from an earlier study showing that
young and educated people move towards urban areas and illiterate people are likely to
move towards rural areas (Irfan, 1986).
Comparing the remittances by rural and urban households, the results showed that rural
households receive almost four times higher remittances as compared to their urban
counterparts. The effect of internal remittances, however, was noted to be significantly
marginal as compared to the remittances received by international migration (Arif, 2005).
Based on PIHS 1998 data, it was found that land ownership was an important variable
which reduces the probability of out-migration from rural areas of the country with the
argument that land ownership provides both economic and social capital, and hence
increases both monetary and social costs of migration from rural areas for land owners
(Memon, 2005).
In the light of these migratory movements, the relation between migration and some
development indicators is discussed. Very few studies have focussed on migration and
poverty linkages and addressed the question whether internal migration contributes to
poverty reduction---a factor important for achieving sustainable development goals. It is
contended that Internal migration has the potential to contribute to development in a
number of ways. By supplementing migrants earnings through off farm labour in urban
areas, rural households may diversify their sources of income. In the short term, migration
may result in the loss of local financial and human capital, but it can also be beneficial and
contribute to the long-term development of rural areas. In particular, internal migrants
remittances can be a significant factor in alleviating poverty of rural households by
supplementing rural incomes and boosting consumption in rural areas and may also
contribute household savings. It is observed that migrants who maintain links with their
area of origin are likely to transfer remittances, investments and information to their home
base and thereby help to raise their standards of living and contribute to local economic
development.
10
Although there is growing recognition that migration can play a role in reducing poverty,
evidence on how and to what extent internal migration contributes to poverty reduction and
development is still lacking. Some studies have noted that poverty and lack of development
motivate people to migrate to urban and more developed areas that may relieve labour market
pressure and improve the income of families (Farooq and Cheema, 2005; Memon, 2005;
Gazdar, 2009).
Evidence from a micro-level study on rural-urban migration in Punjab, in particular Lahore
district has shown better standard of living, education and bright future of children and
employment in the formal urban sector as the pull factors was reported by 37.4 % and 21.7 %
of the sample households respectively, with a majority (78.5 %) coming from end distant
villages. This indicates that the farther from the city, the greater is the deprivation and
backwardness that requires upgrading and improving remote area villages with provision of
social amenities and economic opportunities to minimize disparities at village level (Siddiqui,
2004).
Moreover, better job opportunities and employment opportunities relative to village level were
the main pull factors identified by 69.7 % and 62.7 % of the sample households respectively in
Lahore. Such situation might be attributable to low paid jobs available at village level, nonavailability of off-farm job to supplement their meager earnings, specifically in remote areas,
whereas movement towards city/town had provided opportunity to the poor to come out of
vicious circle of poverty and improve welfare of their households to some extent (Siddiqui,
2004). The poor migrants to cities are unable to have an opportunity of income in modern
sectors immediately and get absorbed in informal, commercial and services sector, while
facing challenging of accessing better living conditions. However, rural out-migration,
particularly from highly backward and distant villages helps the migrants marginally to reduce
the poverty trap that they faced at their place of origin.
Analysis of the 1998 PIHS data further show that among migrants who moved to an urban area
for
economic
reasons,
the
percentage of adults earning a wage is almost double the proportion of non-migrants in case of
females (17% non-migrant vs. 30.7% migrants) as compared to 61% non-migrants vs. 85.5%
migrants in case of males. This makes it evident that economic incentives and poverty
reduction are drivers of migration towards urban areas, especially big cities that offer the
diverse opportunities for earning higher incomes (Memon, 2005). Further evidence shows that
migratory movements in Pakistan have largely been from poorer and labour-abundant areas of
Punjab and KPK to urban centres of Punjab and Sindh that conforms to a basic povertymigration linkage. The economic gap between areas of origin and destination is the driving
force of internal migratory movements as wages of casual daily labourers range from around
40-50 rupees in southern Punjab to 150-200 rupees in Karachi or Lahore, supporting the
argument that poor follow routes of earning better incomes (Gazdar, 2009). However, the
poverty-migration link needs to be studied in detail through qualitative research taking into
account the labour market conditions, gender-segmented opportunities and the rapid growth of
informal and service sector in Pakistan.
10
11
On the other hand, it is observed that migrants from poor and backward regions may not be
able to improve their incomes as most of them are either illiterate or have no skills and
competence. With limited employment opportunities in the formal sector, and high cost of
living in cities, many of them end up living in slums and work on daily wage labour in
construction or informal sector and get trapped in urban poverty. The emergence of urban
slums and katchi abadis has emerged as one of the key challenges in the study of internal
migration and poverty linkages that warrants attention of policies and programmes. It is
therefore, important to identify different forms of migratory movements relevant for poverty
reduction to get evidence on the severity of the vulnerable population and the impact on the
overall economic conditions. In this regard, in-depth qualitative studies are needed to get a
better understanding of migration-poverty linkages in different regions of Pakistan, especially
Punjab which has been the largest recipient of rural-urban and urban-urban migration in
recent years.
The linkage between migration and conflict and security has been conspicuous in Pakistan,
but has remained a neglected area of social research in terms of studying its links with
development. Since the inception of Pakistan, many migratory movements resulted from
political conflict and generated ethnic and cultural divides in regions of Pakistan. Later, the
earthquake and flood disasters as well as the post 9/11 period forced millions of people,
including women and children to get displaced and settle in other places, disrupting and uprooting their sources of livelihoods and daily lives. There is no systematic study to understand
the migration-induced conflict and assess its impact on the social and economic conditions of
individuals, communities and the economy at large.
As noted earlier, not all migrants move for economic reasons. It is also important to further
study the links between migration and other development indicators including education,
health, environment, etc. As discussed earlier, existing data such as the population census and
household surveys provide limited information on migrants in relation to these indicators and
lend themselves to further work on migration issues. These data are useful in providing
characteristics profile of migrant vs. non migrant population giving aggregate measures of the
educational levels, occupation and other demographic features along with their primary
reason to move to another place. Evidence shows that human capital variables such as literacy
and education levels are significant in the decision to move and also through their effect on
high wage expectations (Memon, 2005). The general findings are that it is mostly the young
and educated males who migrate to cities for better educational and employment
opportunities. While there is also quantitative evidence that it is the poor who migrate, this
needs to be qualified with the observation that education also plays an important part in
increasing the likelihood of migration However, information on studying the effects of
migration after the move is limited to determine if the move has improved access and
utilisation of educational and health related services. There is evidence of a rising trend in
family and female migration in recent years. It would be useful to use the population census
and other sources of secondary data in conjunction with more primary qualitative data on
specific issues on migration to understand the cause and effect relationship of migration with
development indicators.
As migration provides opportunities for upward mobility, it also affects the hierarchical
social structures and family networks. Some qualitative studies provide important insights
into the links between migration, social networks, kinship and poverty. Further work is
needed to understand the specific issues of migration at household, community and societal
levels.
12
One important dimension of the migration and development linkages is the phenomenon of
'gendered migration' indicating rising proportion of female migration towards urban centres.
The prevalent socio-cultural norms restrict Pakistani women's independent mobility,
especially to longer distances, and majority of them migrate on account of marriage or family
reunification, it is observed that the number has increased. Currently the information available
on the causes of women migration - other than marital relocation - is highly insufficient and
crude; it fails to provide information on education, age, and class distribution of female
migration, category of migrating women, as well as the source and destination areas. Therefore
it is important to conduct extensive and in depth surveys at regional levels, to gather
information on inter-district, and inter-provincial women migration and assess their
participation in education, health and other development related programmes.
As noted earlier, urbanization is the driver of internal migration as cities have expanded on their
neighbouring rural areas presenting formidable socio-economic challenges. Of particular
concern are the risks to the immediate and surrounding rural communities being eaten up by the
city development programmes. Even the urbanization and peripheral growth of Lahore as
metropolitan city is continuing to absorb large track of agricultural land and rural settlements.
This is not restricted to Lahore metropolitan, it is happening around Pakistani cities and in
Punjab there are numerous cities like Gujranwala, Gujrat, Multan, Sargodha, Faisalabad,
Rawalpindi and others.
These newly urbanized areas and residential settlements have different characteristics and
impact on the environment and surroundings of the area resulting in socio-spatial segregation,
social polarization, privatizing public space by walls and barriers excluding poor neighboring
local rural communities who do not get the benefits of the urban development in their areas like
schools, hospitals, and market. Hence, the migration-urbanization linkage needs to be studied
in more detail to identify policy options to manage growing urbanization in an effective and
balanced manner to gain benefits of migration on development.
13
The State of Internal Migration,

Urbanization in Pakistan:
THE CASE OF PUNJAB
CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB
CHAPTER TWO
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization in
Province of Punjab
Sabiha H. Syed, and Naushin Mehmood
The Situation in Punjab

Punjab is the most populous province comprising of approximately 56 percent of Pakistan's
total population. It is also the most agricultural, irrigated and prosperous region among
provinces and touches boundaries of every other province. The northern part of Punjab is Arid
agricultural, whereas districts of central Punjab are densely populated and have the largest
share of irrigated and the industrial sector. The southern Punjab is the least developed part of the
province with highest proportion of poverty and illiteracy. The capital and largest city is Lahore
whereas other important cities include Multan, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura,Sialkot, Gujranwala,
Jhelum and Rawalpindi.
Based on 1998 census, its population was enumerated as 73.6 million, 23 million urban and
45.4 million rural, which has increased to estimated population of 91.4 million, about 46
million urban and 45.4 as rural in the year 2012. This indicates a fast growth of urban areas in
the province.
Limited and scanty information and data on migration and urbanization in Punjab limit the
possibility of a detailed analysis of the current and future trends. The census data provides
aggregate measures with inadequate information on the direction and flows of internal
migration. The household surveys give information on migrants' characteristics and reasons to
move, missing out information on measuring its effects on urbanization, and other
development related indicators.
Because of the rising trends of rural to urban migration in Punjab, the census data indicate that
there is a net loss of around 140,000 people due to out-migration to other provinces, especially
to urban Sindh. The main streams of rural to urban migration are towards big cities with more
than half of its urban population living in Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Rawalpindi-Islamabad
Figure 2.1: List of major cities in Punjab
Population
District
urban
Lahore
Lahore
10,500,000
Lahore
Faisalabad
Faisalabad
5,280,000
Rawalpindi
Rawalpindi
3,391,656
Multan
Multan
2,606,481
Gujranwala
Gujranwala
2,569,090
Faisalabad
Sargodha
Sargodha
600,501
Bahawalpur Bahawalpur
543,929
Sialkot
Sialkot
510,863
Sheikhupura Sheikhupura
426,980
Rawalpindi
Jhang
Jhang
372,645
Gujrat
Gujrat
530,645
Rank City
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
17
and Gujranwala. Furthermore, five largest cities contain 21 per cent of the total population of
the country with the major streams of migration towards some of these cities, namely,
Rawalpindi-Islamabad, and Lahore-Gujranwala.
On the other hand, apart from the district of Faisalabad, no other big city has out-migrants more
than 100,000 people. Similarly cities with highest net migration rate include the districts of
Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore. This clearly shows that main streams of in-migrants in
Pakistan are towards big cities and the country's capital (Karim and Nasar, 2004).
In Punjab, there are some micro-level studies which focus on certain districts in particular. Oda
(2007) found that in district Chakwal, poverty is quite prevalent among the migrant household
implying that internal migration does not necessarily help poor to improve their economic
situation in the study area. Factors that push people out of their place of origin are scarcity of
employment opportunities in the sending areas where farming depends on rainfall, making
income from farming unpredictable.
Studies conducted on the district of Faisalabad indicate large migratory movements towards
urban locations and reveal that people move from rural areas to more industrial urban areas of
Faisalabad district due to poor economic opportunities at the origin. Evidence shows that the
families left-behind, especially females and children suffer physically as well as
psychologically (Farooq, Mateen and Cheema, 2007; Farooq and javed, 2009; Farah, Zafar and
Nawaz, 2012). These findings confirm that the disparities between the socio-economic
condition in rural and urban areas is a major trigger for migration and urbanization in the
Faisalabad district.
The micro-level and district-level studies focusing on Punjab province reveal that rising trends
in migratory flows towards big cities and massive increase in urban population aggravate the
potential risks for emergence of large urban slums, environmental deterioration and
unemployment, and put tremendous pressures on city resources and services. The real
challenge is to develop the human potential of the rural poor and employ them more
productively in the growing industrial and services sectors in the cities. However, some
qualitative studies are needed to better understand the dynamics of push and pull factors and
assess the impact of migratory movements on the quality of life and living conditions of
migrants, especially in terms of improving access to education, health, employment and
economic well-being.
Migration and Urbanization in Punjab

The province of Punjab constitutes more than 60% of Pakistan's population, and has shown the
highest share of rural to urban migration as well as urban to urban migratory movement. The
1998 Census data shows that during the past decades, there is a net loss of around 140,000
people due to out-migration from Punjab to other provinces, especially to urban Sindh. The
main streams of rural to urban migration are towards big cities namely Karachi, RawalpindiIslamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and Faisalabad. Some district-level studies on internal
migration flows show that pull factors play an important role as most male migrants move to
seek jobs and higher incomes in cities. Evidence from micro level studies on Faisalabad and
Chakwal districts reveals that many people have moved from rural area to more industrial area
due to poor economic opportunities and inadequate income from farming at the origin ( Farooq,
Mateen and Cheema, 2005; Oda, 2007). The districts of Bahawalpur and Multan in Southern
18
Punjab appear to attract significant number of people from rural areas of the same region who
are largely motivated by economic and social sector facilities of these cities (Mahmud,
Musaddiq and said, 2011). Further evidence shows that economic benefits to the internally
migrant households are negligible, and females and children left behind suffer from physical
and psychological problems. However, there is limited evidence on push factors of internal
migration which compels people to leave their home and how they adapt to the new
environment in the place of destination.
Emerging Issues and Concerns

Migration from rural to urban areas generates a series of concerns, including problems related
to job security, environmental stress and social adaptation of the migrants themselves. Most of
the young males are moving to cities for better economic opportunities and education. The
impact and outcome of this migration appears to be contradictory; cities do provide young
people chances of social mobility but they seem to be struggling in integrating them with the
urban way of life.
Evidence on the living conditions of youth migrants is limited in Pakistan, however, some
micro level and qualitative research studies have pointed out that many of them live in difficult
conditions and the poor migrants are compelled to stay in slums and less secure
accommodation. Consequently, the issues of 'identity crisis', 'stigmatization' and 'gated
communities', and 'urban sprawl' are emerging among migrants in big cities (Hasan and Raza,
2009;Hussain, 2011;Rahat, 2012). In adjusting to the new environment and surroundings,
migrants face problems of unemployment, housing, transport, high cost of living and social
conflict. Coming from a rural cultural background, many of them find themselves different in
terms of dressing, language, dialect, and life style that constrain them to become part of the
socio-cultural life style of the urban areas. This situation raises the concern whether the cultural
divide is becoming sharper among the city dwellers and rural to urban migrants and needs
further research on urban youth migrants----the challenges they face, the opportunities they
offer, and the initiatives required to utilize their full potential and contribute to socio-economic
development.
It is also recognized that increasing number of women are migrating to urban areas to seek work
and educational opportunities besides the reason related primarily to family reunification and
marriage. Information on gender dimensions of migration has focused primarily on adding
women as a discriminated and vulnerable group, particularly in relation to bonded labour,
displacement due to conflict and trafficking for sexual exploitation. Evidence shows that
females outnumber male migrants in the urban to urban migratory movement and almost half of
the female migrants move due to marriage (Hamid, 2010). Female migrants from poor socioeconomic background are faced with problems of finding employment and secure housing and
many are compelled to become domestic servants, take up low-paid jobs and absorb in the
informal sector. It is exceedingly difficult for single, young female migrants to rent secure
accommodation, move freely in the city, and get jobs in the formal sector. This situation calls
for undertaking research and policy initiatives for youth migrants from the gender perspective,
especially for female migrants who might have a double disadvantage in having access to such
basic needs as education, health, and economic security in the context of urbanization and overcrowded cities.
19
Current/future Trends and Flows

Looking at the evidence on direction of move, internal migratory movements in Pakistan and
province of Punjab have been primarily rural to urban followed by rural to rural areas with some
variations in estimates from various data sources (Karim and Nasar, 2003; Khatak, 2003;
Chaudhry, 2003; Naeem, 2003; Rukanuddin and Chaudhry, 2003; Akram et al; Memon, 2005;
Arif, 2005; Hamid, 2010). The PIHS 1998-99 data also indicates that almost 40 percent of the
migratory movements in Punjab are from rural to urban followed by rural to rural areas (Table
2.1).
Table 2.1: Percentage Distribution of Internal Migrants by Direction of Move
Direction of
Move
2000-01 PSES 1996-97LFS

(all ages)
(Age 10 +)
1998-99 PIHS 1979 PLM*

(Punjab)
(all ages)
Urban to
urban
Urban to rural
Rural to
urban
Rural to rural
All
19.5
43.0
22.7
14.9
5.9
38.8
6.9
29.8
6.8
40.7
13.9
29.8
20.3
29.7
100
100
Source: Arif (2005)
41.3
100
36.2
100
Evidence from various Labour Force Surveys, however, shows the highest migratory
movements from urban to urban districts. The estimates are that over 60 percent of all internal
migratory movements are in the direction of urban centres either from a rural district or from
another urban district. This indicates that the LFS data has captured the increasing migratory
movements from rural to urban and urban to urban areas in recent years, each accounting for
over 30 percent of flows (Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010). However, the LFS data do not
show any considerable change in the direction of move over the years and confirm the fact that
trends to migrate towards urban areas has increased in recent years (Table 2.2).
Table 2.2:Distribution of Migrants by Direction of Move, 1996-97---2006-07
Year
Rural to Urban Rural to Rural
Urban to Urban Urban to Rural
1996-97
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2006-07
23.4
25.0
24.7
31.3
27.2
28.9
28.0
39.2
33.4
32.0
29.3
30.7
31.1
32.4
27.8
28.9
30.8
28.2
30.5
26.9
27.9
9.6
12.7
12.4
11.4
11.5
13.1
11.8
Source: Hamid, 2010 LFS data for the years (1996-2006).

Among the provinces, results from the LFS data (2005-2008) show that among the total lifetime migrants, the highest proportion of rural to urban movement is from Punjab (47%)
followed by Sindh (32%), KPK (16%) and Balochistan (5%). Majority of rural migrants from
Punjab, especially from Southern Punjab and less developed districts, and KPK have moved to
20
urban parts of Sindh due to pull factors in search of better employment opportunities and access
to social services. Karachi, the largest metropolitan city in the country, has the highest number
of in-migrants coming from other provinces (Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2: Rural-Urban Migration,
Figure 2.3: Urban-Urban Migration,
Percent Moving to each province
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010

For urban to urban migration, Figure 3 shows that more than half of migrants (55%) have
moved to an urban centre within Punjab, whereas KPK is the second largest recipient of people
from less developed districts (24%), followed by Sindh and Baluchistan (17% & 5%). This
pattern confirms that the considerations of the pull factors to move to large cities are equally
important for internal migrants residing in small cities. The increased proportion of urbanurban migrants in KPK might be due to security concerns motivating people to leave their
native towns.
Based on the evidence from the 1998 census and various surveys, it is observed that the
prevalent migratory flows in Pakistan are from rural to urban areas. The estimates show that
roughly 40% of the migrants are from rural to urban areas, followed by rural to rural movement
(Arif, 2005; Memon, 2005), whereas the LFS (2010) results show that urban to urban migratory
movements have increased in recent years and the share of urban to rural migrants is negligible
(Hamid, 2010). Majority of males (60%), most of whom are young and educated, cite economic
reasons for migrating, whereas for females it is mostly family reunification and marriage.
Moreover, the 1998 census data revealed that the volume of overall migrants has increased
overtime, but the percentage of migrants of the country's total population has decreased (Karim
and Nasar, 2004), which might be an underestimate due to inadequacy of estimating intradistrict movements.
Among the provinces, Punjab has shown the highest flow of migratory movements, with urban
Sindh being the main recipient of internal life-time migrants from rural areas of Punjab and
KPK. Karachi, the largest metropolitan city of the country has the highest number of inmigrants as a percentage of its population. However, a large majority of people (80%) in Punjab
and Sindh are moving from within the province from rural to urban locations. It is found that
better economic opportunities and the degree of urbanization of the destination district are the
most important pull factors for rural migrants in all provinces (Mahmud, Musaddiq and said,
2011).
21
In view of the recent NFC award and the devolution process, it is now imperative that the
ongoing migration from rural to urban areas, from small towns to large cities, urban sprawl, and
strip urban development becomes the focus of future migration and urban policies. To date,
there is no defined urban and migration policy and no proper identification of stakeholders
involved in studying and managing the process. The migration patterns also suggest heavy
concentration towards the provincial capitals and large cities. If Punjab is expected to be the
largest recipient of the federal funding, and its large cities continue to receive
disproportionately higher allocations of the provincial funds, the problems of the influx of
migrants to large metropolitan cities are likely to be exacerbated. In this regard, a more suitable
approach would be to divert migrants away from provincial capitals and large cities towards
other potential urban centres. Another policy consideration would entail slowing down or
reversal of migrating trends through land reforms and rural development programmes that
enhance income generating opportunities.

Urbanization, Trends and Consequences
in Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Policy Recommendations
While understanding the causes and effects of internal migration and its linkage with poverty
and development, it is critical to design appropriate policies and programmes to build
infrastructure, housing and other social services along with creation of employment to absorb
the growing number of migrant population. This means that no single policy can address
migration and urbanization issues and challenges in totality. It involves different departments at
provincial and local levels including both public and private departments of labour, agriculture,
urban and rural development, health, youth and child welfare, thereby requiring a wellcoordinated approach to formulate policies and programmes at different levels.
In view of the recent NFC award and the devolved governance set up, the provincial
governments need a cogent proactive policy to deal with issues of migration and urbanization.
In view of the ongoing migration from rural to urban areas, from small towns to large cities,
urban sprawl, and strip urban development, especially in the province of Punjab, it is crucial to
focus on these issues in future migration and urban policies. Some incentives and programme
interventions for the economic well-being of people in rural areas need to be initiated so that the
main streams of migration may be diverted from the main urban hubs. In this regard, a more
suitable approach would be to divert migrants away from provincial capital and large cities
towards other potential urban centres. Establishing job opportunities and educational
institutions in small and medium size cities may serve the purpose. On the other hand,
unchecked mobility of people towards big cities needs attention of policy makers. Measures
need to be taken to prevent existence of illegal squatter settlements with a strict surveillance
from the administration to prevent any future settlements. The UNFPA (2007) regards
concentration of poverty, growth of slums and social deprivation in cities as major challenge for
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT policies and programmes
Above all, there is a need for strong political will, policy advocacy and coordination for
integrating migration and urbanization issues in development planning, and efficient urban
planning So far integration of demographic factors has been a missing component of
urbanization policy, and needs to be included for the improvement of the quality of life of
people and better access to basic services.
22
23
CHAPTER THREE: TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES IN PROVINCE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
CHAPTER THREE
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization,
Trends and Consequences in Province of KPK
Niaz Ahmad, Raza Rehman and Sabiha H. Syed
This chapter examines Internal Migration patterns in Pakistan with special reference to trends
and consequences in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Based on the evidence and
information generated from various data sources and research studies, the emerging issues and
concerns of internal migration and urbanization and its impact on KPK are highlighted. Before
we analyze the particular situation in KPK, the overall trends and availability of data on
migration and urbanization are discussed.
The Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In 1901, a province of NWFP was carved out of Punjab. It was part of Punjab. In 1955, the
Province merged in the single one unit with Lahore as its capital under new administration of
West Pakistan. However, by the passage of time, negotiations have been going on by the
Pashtun, [Pashtu speaking] people in the province to rename it as PAKHTUNKHWA. Finally,
the province was renamed in 2009 as Khyber PakhtunKhwa. The other major ethnic
community i.e. Hazara have condemned the renaming and have raised a demand for a separate
new province of HAZARA. Migration from rural to urban areas generates a series of concerns,
including problems related to job security, environmental stress and social adaptation of the
migrants and Northern Areas, while remaining 2.9 percent were Pakistanis who repatriated
from other countries. In addition to such huge influx of migrant population, natural disaster like
floods and ongoing militancy in FATA and Malakand Area have forced the civilian population
to move towards the adjacent safe districts like Peshawar, Mardan, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki
Marwat, Tank and D.I. Khan. Such influx of migrant and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
have generated many socio-economic problems for the cities of Khyber PakhtunKhwa.
However, knowledge and information available is limited and not updated to identify the real
trends consequences of migration and its impact on the various population subgroups in the
province. The KPK province has manifested large rural to urban migratory movements and
massive displacements in recent years which have affected the structure of the economy and the
living conditions of the society in many ways. Based on the 1998 census estimates, the total
numbers of life time in-migration in KPK were 647,356 or 3.7 percent of population of the
province. Of these total migrants, 68.6 percent came from other districts of KPK, 14.9 percent
were from Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan and Islamabad, 12.8 percent from FATA, 0.8 percent
from Azad Kashmir for Governance the province comprises of four major administrative
arrangements.
1. The districts, 2. Provincially Administered Tribal Areas [PATA] 3.Federally Administered
Tribal Areas [FATA] and 4. States and Frontier Regions Annexure-A. The FATA [See Annexure
B] the area is further divided into two categories. Protected areas are regions under
government management and the non-protected areas are managed by local tribes. 4. Frontier
Regions. These are directly controlled by the Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. (FATA)
2
25
Secretariat is a federally funded body with a separate administrative unit run by the Planning
and Development Department of the provincial government. The area is known to have
remained a neglected region in terms of development and availability of reliable and authentic
data. In his context it will be useful to review some of its development indicators in the areas.
The Bureau of Statistics (FATA Cell), however, compiles information on important socioeconomic indicators using the censuses and survey data (Planning and Development
Department, 2012). Based on the recent estimates, the total area of FATA is 27,220 km
comprising of 3.42 % of Pakistan's total land area. According to the 1998 census, the total
population of FATA was 3,176,000 and is estimated to have increased to 4,395, 000 in 2013
with an average growth rate of 2.2 % (Provincial Census Organization, KP). FATA region is
overwhelmingly rural in character, but many people are involved in business, trade and
commerce due to its geo-political situation and emergence of NATO supplies. The literacy ratio
of FATA was reported as 17.4 % in 1998 census which is estimated at 21.4 % in 2013, being 33.8
% for males and only 7.5 % for females, indicating a large gender gap and low status of women
in the region. This is being reflected by the low school participation rate, especially for girls in
the year 2011-12 as shown below: The situation of literacy in FATA agencies and Frontier
regions varies indicating that except for FATA.
Enrolment rate (%)
5-9 years
10-12 years
13-14 years
Both sexes
32
27
4
Male
41
40
6
Urbanization Trends in the province can be seen in the following Table, 3.2 where it is observed
that the number of urban localities by size and population has been increasing since 1961 to
1998.
Table 3.3: Number of Urban localities by Size, Population
and Average Annual Growth Rate (1961-1998)
Year Total
1961
1972
1981
1998
43
54
43
55
Number of Urban Localities by Size

Less
25,000 to 50,000 One lac
49,000
than
and
to
20,000
over
99,000
37
42
26
22
4
9
10
22
1
1
5
8
1
2
2
3
The situation of literacy in FATA agencies and Frontier regions varies indicating that except for
Khyber, Kurram and FR of Kohat and Peshawar, female literacy ratio is less than 10 % in all
other areas. This requires policy and programme interventions to improve the state of education
in the area.
Some estimates on health indicators are also reflective of inadequacy of health facilities in the
region. Based on the 2012 estimates, there are 658 health service institutions, of which 32 are
hospitals and only 8 are rural health centres, with larger network of dispensaries and
community health centres in rural areas. The availability of doctors in health facilities is also
scarce with only 644 registered doctors with population per doctor estimated at 6728 persons.
With low socio-economic indicators of FATA region and massive displacement of population
has led to difficult law and order situation there as well as in KPprovince.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Population
4556545
5730991
8388551
11061328
17735912
-
Internal Censual
Increase%
25.77
46.37
31.86
60.34
289.24
Source: Bureau of KPK Statistics, 1998

26
13.24
14.25
15.06
16.88
Source: Pakistan Provincial Census Report, Government of KPK, 1998

Furthermore the populations of urban localities by their number and size are listed in Table
3.4.It is evident that Peshawar has the largest number of these localities.
Localities by
Population Size
500,000 and
above
100,000
500,000
Number of Population
Localities Size
1
988,005
4
Peshawar
Mingora; Abbotabad; Mardan
& Kohat
50,000 100,000
448,694
Manshera; Swabi;
Charsadda; Shabqadar;
Nowshera & D.I. Khan
20,000 50,000
22
702,491
Less than 20,000
11
150,123
Chitral; Dir; Timergara;

Batkhela; Havelian; Haripur;
Kalabat; Takht Bhai; Topi;
Zaida; Tordher; Utmanzai;
Tangi; Amangarh; Pabbi;
Jehangira; Hangu; Thal;
Karak; Bannu; Lahki Marwat &
Tank.
Baffa; Nawanshehr; Nawan
Killi; Akora Khattak; Risalpur;
Lachi; Shakardara; Doaba;
Sarai Naurang; Pharpur &
Kulachi.
Annual Growth
2.34
3.32
3.32
2.82
2.93
Name of localities
650,250
Table 3.1: KPK Population and Growth Rate in Year from 1951-1998
Year of
Census
1951
1961
1972
1981
1998
1951-1998
758,516
1,195,655
1,665,653
2,994,088
Inter censual
average
growth rate of
Urban
Population
3.98
4.00
3.51
Table 3.4: Urban Localities by Population size 1998 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Female
24
12
1
Source: Bureau of Statistics, (FATA cell)
S. No
Urban Population
Number Percent
Total
44
3,049,928
Source: Government of Pakistan Population census 1998

27
An uneven size of urban localities given the specific geographical location of KPK and high
concentration of population in a few cities have made them over-crowded and created various
problems of town planning, air pollution and sanitation as well as over-burdened educational
institutions, hospitals and dispensaries. Existing cities are expanding rapidly through migration
from rural as well as tribal areas and new towns are emerging, causing high density in urban
concentrations and problems associated with over-crowding in cities. If such over-crowding
continues in an unplanned manner it will aggravate the present situation of unmanageable
urbanism and governance issues.
The situation of population concentration in and around Peshawar is significant, which has
received large population transfer into the Peshawar valley. Apart from the conventional rural
urban migration the KPK province and especially the primate city faced the influx of Afghan
refugees in the late seventies and in later years has been the biggest factor contributing to
phenomenal rise in urban population in the province. Their living in the KP has been
incremental in augmenting the socio economic problem found in urban areas, and there is no
hope of their return to Afghanistan in the force able future.
The city, its localities and the larger Peshawar valley [Map below]. Indicate that the localities
around the valley have the highest population density. The concentration of urban settlements
and their hierarchy around the Peshawar Valley can be clearly observed.
Map 1: Hierarchy of Urban Settlements in Peshawar Valley
Literature Review
It is important to undertake a review of existing knowledge those inadequate based on surveys
and research studies in relation to internal migration and urbanization and its trends and
consequences that have affected individuals, families and socio economic development in the
country and especially in relation to KPK as well. Internal migratory movements from the
census data is limited for estimating the flow and direction between and within provinces and
districts, leaving large gaps in assessing the situation of internal migration and its linkages with
population growth, urbanization and other sectors of development. The available research
evidence on internal migration is mostly based on macro level indicators and very few studies
are conducted at the micro level to assess its impact on individuals and households' economic
and social well-being (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000; Arif, 2005). Moreover, variability in the type
and scope of data collected in different censuses and sample surveys limits the possibility of
comparing results and capturing trends and rates of internal migratory movement's in Pakistan.
Although there is paucity of research in the area of migration sources of macro level on
migration are awarded from following sources. However a number of research studies have
been conducted on migration and urbanization trends in the country they have need valuable
contribution to the literature on the subject. In addition some macro level studies focus on broad
patterns of migration flows, magnitude and direction of move such as inter-provincial, interdistrict and rural to urban migration using population census data which are limited in scope
and analysis (Karim and Nasar; Khattak; Naeem; Rukanuddin and Chaudhry; 2003). The
micro-level studies on internal migration are based on various sample surveys such as Labour
Force and other Household survey data sets to examine and understand the determinants of
migratory movements at national, provincial or district level (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000; Arif,
2005; Memon, 2005; Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010; Hamid, 2010).
In past few studies based on information from the nationally representative Population, Labour
Force and Migration Survey (PLMS, 1979-80) survey data, Irfan, Arif and Demeny (1983)
studied the patterns of internal migration of Pakistan in detail analyzing the distance categories
(short, medium and long term) and the direction of internal migration (rural to rural, rural to
urban, urban to urban and urban to rural) by province for both sexes (male and female). They
concluded that internal migration in Pakistan has become a long distance and a rural urban
phenomenon.
Source: Niaz, 2013.

28
In the studies (Ahmed and Sirageldin, 1993) using the PLM survey data showed that migration
is generally selective by age, education and occupation. The impact of migration is higher
among those with college or university level education and those belonging to professional
groups or skills of workers. They also found that ownership of home/land and the presence of
school children in the household is inversely related to the probability to migrate. Migration
trends have also been studied by (Khan and Hamid, 2000) use the Labour Force Survey (LFS,
1996-97) data to study the process of internal migration and found that the main direction of
migration is from rural to urban areas. However, some studies indicate that urban to urban
migration is also emerging as a recent phenomenon as an effect of education in the decision to
migrate is significant, especially among young males (Sarwar and Sial, 2011). Some studies on
the role of gender support the notion that migration also empowers women and increases the
investment on child schooling in Pakistan (Farooq & Cheema, 2005). Moreover, rural outmigration is positively associated with the objective of poverty reduction in urban areas and
29
improves the well-being of the migrants' families left behind (Khan, Sajid, Gondal and Ahmad,
2009).
Focus of Selected Literature and Information on KPK

Migration into and from KPK is a historically phenomenon but lack of research on this issue has
left a large gap the data from different sources. However a few research studies do cover certain
areas within the context of internal migration and urbanization. The overall review of the
literature indicates that the census data has been the primarily source of analysis been to
determine the inter-provincial and intra-provincial flows of population movements. Few
selected and recent studies on the emerging situation of the trends of internal migration and its
consequences are discussed.
(Khattak, 2004) examined migration pattern in KP from the 1998 census data and showed that
of the total life-time migrants, 68.6 % came from other districts of KP, and total 14.9 % were
from Sindh, Baluchistan and Islamabad, 12.8 % from FATA and about 1 % from Azad Kashmir
and Northern areas. The socio-economic profile of migrants indicated that a majority were
between age 10-35 years with secondary and above level of education, and about 20 %
migrated for seeking jobs and 8.4 percent moved for business purposes. A small scale study on
migration and livelihood patterns based on 400 selected households in KP indicated that
internal migration by any household member during the past 5 years was 32% with major
destination being Peshawar, Mardan, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Lahore. The proportion of
overseas migrants was 12% mostly moving to Saudi Arabia and Dubai. The primary source of
income of migrants was business, labour and domestic remittance supporting the fact that
economic opportunity was the major drive behind migration decision making at household
level (Shahbaz and Ali, 2010). Most of the migrants as unskilled labour faced serious
challenges of low paid employment and adverse living conditions in cities.
Another micro-level study examined as to what extent migration from district Chitral to
Peshawar city contributed to improving the well-being of households. The results showed that
migrants' remittances improved the economic and social status of the households in terms of
health care, household goods, housing conditions and investment in children education (Ali,
Khan, Shah and Zia, 2006). However, many migrants experienced the ill-effects of temporary
employment and lack of access to quality social services. (Zulqarnain, 2013) studied the
internal migration patterns by province using Pakistan Panel Household Survey data (PPHS,
2010). The results showed that the share of internal migrants in KP was 2.7 % and female
migrants' share was significant. Moreover, the rising trend towards rural to urban and rural to
rural migration is also evident. Another study on the determinants of rural to urban migration in
district Peshawar showed a positive relation between education and migration and a majority
of migrants stated better jobs and income as the main reason to leave their rural residence
(Usman, Naeem, and Khan, 2009).
A study on Migration, Settlements and Social Networks of Afghans revealed that one of the
main attractions in Peshawar for Afghans was the existence of refugee camps close enough to
facilitate male participation in the jihad. Business links with Peshawar before the war also
helped in the decision to come to this city. Moreover, ethnic and cultural links and social
networks between Afghans and Peshawar residents facilitated and promoted the migratory
movements (Collective for Social Science Research, 2006). This process has changed and is
continuously changing the physical, social and cultural structure of the city having impact on
30
all aspects of life of its population. (Fazli Rabi, 2013) using provincial census estimates in KP
showed that urban population has almost doubled from 1.66 million in 1981 to 2.99 million in
1998 censuses indicating the urban proportion at 16.9 %. However, due to an abstract definition
and criteria of an area as 'urban', this might be an underestimate. With the rising trends of
urbanization in KPand the absence of census data for the latest year, the percent urban is likely
to be much higher than the estimated figure of 1998. More importantly, a lot of variation exists
in urban component among districts in KP ranging from 0.4 % in Dir to 48.7 % in Peshawar.
Regarding migration, the total number of life time in-migrants in KP were 3.7 percent of
population of the province as reported in 1998 census who were mostly settled in towns. It was
suggested that dealing with rapid migration and rapid urbanization issues, efficient urban/town
planning is the need of the hour along with development projects introduced in FATA to give
better quality of life to local population.
(Khan, 2013) in his paper on urban transition in KPprovince has shown that the rapid expansion
of cities and urban centers has been triggered by such factors as growing population and the
demand for civic facilities, internal migration from far flung, rural and tribal areas to cities, the
process of rural areas to become urbanized, and settling of millions of Afghan refugees. The
study further stated that the influx of large number of IDPs from the insurgency-afflicted FATA
and other areas has resulted in 'Tribalisation' and 'Afghanisation' of KP cities having negative
impact on the socioeconomic conditions and excessive burden on the physical infrastructure
and civic amenities. The major fallout of this process is that the cities have lost urbane milieu
making many institutions dysfunctional and misgoverned affecting the quality of life in cities.
(Ahmad, 2013) studied the impact and challenges of internal migration and urbanization in KP
and showed how the rapid urbanization in Pakistan over the last decades has changed the cities'
size distribution and its boundary limits. The growth rate of urban localities in KP has been fast
in 10 localities (>3.5%), medium in 23 localities (2-3.5%) and slow in 11 localities (< 2%) over
the years which indicates the primacy ratio of cities and towns in KP. The estimates showed that
Peshawar has emerged as the single primate large city in the province with a population of
0.998 million followed by Mardan, Mingora, Abbotabad and Kohat as the second largest cities
(100,000-500,000 population), whereas D.I. Khan, Mansehra, Charsada, Nowshera, Haripur
and Swabi fall between 50,000-100,000 of city-size distribution. The remaining 33 urban
localities are small towns/cities with a minimum of 20,000 persons. This pattern shows that KP
has an unbalanced and highly skewed urban-rural distribution of population with drastic
changes in the settlement patterns of Peshawar city. The forced migration in KP due to
displacements and disaster is an important cause of rapid growth of few cities as Peshawar,
Mardan and Charsada received the largest number of displaced persons since the upsurge of
political conflict in the area.
(Khan, 2013) focusing on the challenges and impact of migration in FATA argued that the
persistence of the tribal structure in Pakistan's tribal areas has largely caused social and
economic disruption in KP cities. He suggested that the most effective measure to address the
issue would be to trigger the process of social change in FATA through establishing some cities
and mega tows with provision of all basic services as a strategy to prevent extensive outmigration from the area. The development of urban hubs would create economic and social
opportunities for local population and enable them to reap the benefits of development and
social change that is lacking at the moment. (Mosel and Jackson, 2013) studied issues of urban
displacements and vulnerability considering Peshawar as the largest recipient of refugee and
31
displaced population. They highlighted the issues of unplanned ongoing expansion and sprawl
of Peshawar city and the challenges faced by refugees and IDPs including lack of legal
protection and the related risks, especially among the poor and the disadvantaged sub-groups.
This situation warrants government's attention in terms of resource allocations and policy
support for the welfare of the displaced population in KP.
The recently conducted study on slum areas by (UN-Habitat, 2013) to address the problem of
informal settlements in Peshawar city revealed that the urban poor and the displaced people are
mostly exposed to risks of living in such settlements. This makes it important to plan future
urban growth, and provide the urban poor with serviced land to build and improve their own
housing with a special focus on gender equity, and taking measures to minimize the negative
urban impacts of environmental degradation and vulnerability of the poor. The findings showed
that KP is experiencing rapid urbanization and has grown by 23 % between inter-censual
periods of 1981-1998 which is likely to be close to 50 % if present trends continue. The MDG
report of KP in 2011 identifies its urban areas as the poorest posing serious challenge for urban
planning and management. This requires efficient planning and resources for up-grading or
mainstreaming these slums as part of city development. Evidence either people migrating from
their residence to within province from one district or Tehsil to other urban city or towards other
cities of other province.
In another study (Memon, 2007), linked the migration with reduction of the poverty level and
increase the social and economic status of households. (Tariq Rahim et al, 2007), Rapid growth
occurred in the urbanity level of KPK, Urban centers are increased from 28 to 55 till 1998 but
urbanization concentrated in top urban centers and high in Peshawar with 29%. These centers
enjoyed the privilege of development, services, health facilities and education that attract the
rural areas of KPK and outside province. (A. Khan, 2005), Peshawar is playing important role
in accelerating the speed of economy of KPK. Income earned by the migrants in urban centers
that returned to rural area. In many areas of KPK, rigid traditions on women's education are no
changing and emergence of female institutions has been started. Peace and fraternity is now
replacing the old conflicts on traditions is shifted in KPK.
(Hassan and Raza, 2009), Migration is occurred KPK as a result of soviet invasion of
Afghanistan. Large number of refugees settled in Peshawar. The ratio of migrants in KPK is
12% and consists of 13% of total migration. From KPK, large number of migrants moves
towards the Sindh province especially in Karachi in search of better future. In KPK, 70%
growth in urban is natural growth by birth. 20.9% growth occurred due to re classification in the
KPK in the period of 1981 to 1998. 9.1 % urban growth done due to the internal migration.9.1%
urban growth is from KPK out of 20.1 % of Pakistan. (Shanaaz Hameed, 2010), analysis's the
migration rate in Pakistan in gender perspective. Marriages play important role in female
migration. Share of urban to urban migration is declined but rural to urban migration is
increased over time. The trend of female migration on Intra and inter provisional in short
distance as well long distance is increased in KPK. (Marlou Schrover, 2008), he discussed the
historical framework of illegal migration and gender in Pakistan perspective. Gulf Migration
has pronounced impact on the KPK. Remittances have kept the economy float of KPK. Female
participation in KPK is less than other provinces and states. (G.M. Arif and Ibrahim, 1998),
urbanization in Pakistan is not high by world level but strongly linked with unemployment and
infrastructures due to unplanned urbanization. The flow of migration is high in 1970's and
32
significant in KPK due to increase in natural growth of migration and Middle East oil boom.
(Naveed Shinwari, 2012), He describes the FATA that consists of 3.2 Million populations in
1998 with unique Administrative structure that governed by Frontier Crimes Regulation
(FCR). FATA fall under the ministry of (SAFRON) that is States and frontier regions. As
reflected in 1998 census, a large number of internal migrants originate from Punjab followed by
KPK. In Karachi, which is situated in Sindh, above 38 percent of the immigrants are from
Punjab, 29 percent are from KPK while 24 percent are from the other areas of the same
province.
Table 3.5: Reported reasons for migration from Various Data Sources, Pakistan.
Percentage of Migrants
Reason for Migration
LFS
1996-97
PIHS
1998
LFS
1997-98
Job transfer
7.1
2.8
5.5
Finding a job
10.0
12.5
8.9
Business
4.3
2.8
4.4
Education
0.9
1.1
0.5
Health
0.2
0.3
0.2
Marriage
26.1
41.2
26.1
With family
19.8
22.3
23.7
Return home
6.7
3.1
9.3
Others
25.0
5.7
21.4
Proportion of economic
21.3
18.1
18.8
migrants in Migrant sub-sample
% of economic migrants in full
2.3
4.7
1.7
sample
Source: Khan and Shahnaz (2000) and Memon (2005)
Census
1998
12.1
NA
8.8
1.2
0.01
17.0
42.8
1.1
16.9
20.9
1.7
While economic migrants constitute up to 20 per cent of total migrants, depending on the
source of data used, the proportion of women as economic migrants is estimated at 15.7 percent
(PIHS, 1998) and 13.1 percent (LFS,1998) as against 63 percent and 54.2 percent, respectively
in the non-economic category. This suggests that while female migrants may not possess the
requisite skills and educational levels to find a job, labour markets in Pakistan may also be
segmented along gender lines. However, this does not preclude female migrants to join labour
market in the informal sector and contribute to the family income, even though the reported
reason for migration may be marital or family. This is supported by the fact that the percentage
of migrant women working for wages is almost double the percentage of non-migrant women
working for wages (Memon, 2005).
The 1998 census reveals that spouses of head of the household are the leading long-term
migrants followed by the daughters. Among males migrants, one-third of the migrants are head
of household's sons with one-fifth of the migrants as main bread-earner in the household
(Karim and Nasar, 2004). Evidence from LFS data shows that female migrants dominate all
four types of moves; especially they outnumber their male counterparts in the urban-urban
migration in the country, indicating that almost half of the female migrants move due to their
marriages or with the family (Hamid, 2010)
33
Table 3.6: Migrant Population of Pakistan and KPK by Reasons of Migration (in %)
Administrative
Unit
Pakistan
Study Marriage Move Business Employment Returning Health Others

with
Head
Provinces
Total
Inter- Provincial
Intra- Provincial
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Pakistan 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0
1.17
17.1
42.78
8.75
12.08
1.09
0.09
16.94
Rural
0.86
24.54
38.39
9.84
3.95
1.06
0.07
21.29
Urban
1.34
12.88
45.28
8.13
16.7
1.1
1.1
14.47
Source: labour Force Survey of Pakistan, LFS 2010-2011 Results
2.02
8.87
57.51
7.14
16.53
0.76
0.05
7.12
Rural
1.42
9.58
61.8
10.19
5.03
0.85
0.06
11.07
Urban
2.43
8.37
54.53
5.02
24.53
0.7
0.04
4.38
In period of 2010-2011, the ratio of inter and intra migration in KPK have seen low as compared
to other provinces. Men have confidence to move and are more independent in KPK. It is the
possibility in future women KP migrants' increases on Inter and intra provisional level like
females in Punjab and Sindh.
K.P.K
Source: Pakistan Population Census Organization, 1998
Table 3.7: Gender Composition of Rural to Urban Migrations by

Intra- and Inter-Province Move in KPK
Intra- Province KPK
Inter Province KPK
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
1996-97
89.6
91.3
(44.3)
90.3
8.4
6.8
(5.9)
9.7
97-98
90.9
92.8
(35.0)
91.8
9.1
7.2
(4.3)
8.2
99-00
92.2
91.0
(47.7)
91.6
7.8
6.8
(5.1)
8.4
01-02
89.8
91.4
(56.8)
90.6
10.2
8.6
(5.9)
KPK
9.0
12.6
6.5
19.5
24.3
13.4
6.1
7.8
5.2
Afghan Refugees factor in KPK
The above table shows in KPK, the leading reason for migration is listed as with the head of
household (57.51%). The rural urban differential is (61.8%) and (54.53%) respectively
followed by employment, marriage and business. While other reasons of migration are vary
from (0.05%) and (7.12%). It would be useful to also examine the reported reasons for move by
gender in KPK.
9.4
Apart from the conventional rural urban migration the KPK province is severely faced with
force migration. The influx of afghan refugees in the late seventies and later year has been the
biggest factor contributing to phenomenal rise in province urban population. It is of great
concern that force migrants are not included in the official census count of urban population,
however functionally they are very much a part of the province's urban population. Therefore,
no authentic figure is available on the actual existence of refugees in KPK province. Majority of
these refugees escaped to register themselves as well. Generally majority of Afghan refugees
prefer KPfor their accommodation with 64% (and have considerably chosen major cities to live
(See Ahmad, 2013).
Figure 3.2: State of Afghan Refugees in Provinces of Pakistan
Afghan Refugees Province of Residence in Pakistan (2007 and 2011)
Refuges in Given
Areas, 2007
2%
0.3% 9% 4%
Punjab
Sindh
21%
KPK
03-04
94.9
94.8
(59.5)
94.9
5.1
5.2
(3.3)
5.1
05-06
88.2
90.7
(52.2)
89.6
11.8
9.3
(6.6)
10.4
06-2007
91.7
91.3
(58.7)
91.5
8.3
8.7
(3.7)
8.5
Source: Shanaz Hameed's Tabulation from LFS (1996-2006).

Women migrating after marriage are seen main as the cause in migration trends. Otherwise,
female ratio is less due to education and shelter. They also moved shorter distance especially
women belonged from KPK and Sindh.
34
Table 3.8: Inter and Intra Migration of KPK on Provisional Level 2010-2011
64%
Baluchistan
Refuges in Given
Areas, 2011
2%1%
11%
20%
4%
62%
Punjab
Sindh
KPK
Baluchistan
Islamabad
Islamabad
AJK
AJK
Source: UNHCR Report, 2007 and 2011

Their living in the KP has been incremental in augmenting the socio economic problem found
in urban areas, and there is no hope of their return to Afghanistan in the force able future. In an
official interview (Fig.3 2), majority (85%) of Afghan refugees recorded their refusal for return.
Therefore, in the analysis of urban problem and for drawing up places for their solution, the
Afghan Refugee population has to be considered at par with the local population.
35
Figure 3.3
poor) do not intend to go back to their native places (see box -1)
According to social welfare department Peshawar city accommodated more IDPS
than rest of the cities in KP. The surveys made it clear that 1 0-15% IDPs (mainly
the poor class) do not want to go back, as they have better access to employment
in their displaced location.
The survey further illustrated that almost 5 -10% of IDPs comin g back to cities
(where they spent few months of displacement) after going back due to
normalization of security situation in their places of displacement.
It is ascertain that families having political affiliation were specifically targeted
by the militants during operation. Therefore well-off people and political elites
have shifted all their families to Peshawar, Abbotabad and Islamabad for security
and children education purposes.
Source: UNHCR Report, 2007

Apart from the haphazard development the direct societal impact of Afghan war appeared in the
form of militancy and insurgency particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This unrest and
militancy in north and south of the province caused internal displacement of masses in large
quantity. The militancy and unrest were dealt through military operation in these areas. This
process further pushed an unprecedented movement of people towards cities. This
phenomenon greatly influenced the managerial capacities of the local authorities to
accommodate the escalated demands in a proper manner. In 2008, a major military operation in
SWAT caused significant displacement from the SWAT valley, and military operations in
Bajaur and Mohmand agencies in FATA forced many to flee into KP (Mosel and Jackson,
2013). This research highlighted that by 2009, there were around 3m IDPs in KP, mainly from
other areas of KP and some from FATA (UNOCHA, 2012b). Once again the focus of the
problem was specifically diverted towards Peshawar. Thus the trends of population burst in
cities have made the housing and infrastructure provision more complex. Urban expansion
reached at the apex against the normal situation. However, the local planning agencies were
financially not supported to ameliorate the situation. The managerial capacity of local
government institutions was too very weak to generate any action against the abnormal and
hazardous growth of the city (Ahmad and Anjum, 2012). Both these problems have close links
and great share in the deterioration of cities and successive failure of the city's development
plan. This phenomenon has not only flooded the tranquil environment of cities but has given
rise to social and mental unrest.
The Internally Displaced Persons IDPs Factor

In the wake of ongoing clashes between security forces and militants in tribal areas and some
districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, about 514,806 IDPs families have fled from various parts
of the province (UNHCR and Social Welfare Department, 2010). The Social welfare
Department (SWD) confirms that majority of these IDPs settled in towns and cities of
Peshawar valley. According to UNHCR and SWD estimates more than 6 million people were
displaced from their localities and were temporarily accommodated in various camps,
government schools, union council offices etc. However, majority of these IDP (particularly
36
The militancy and insurgency is not going to culminate entirely but is changing its location.
One can hardly expect the complete peace and return of these displaced persons. Whereas the
fresh offensives in other parts of the province had led to the displacement of more people
towards these host districts. In an interview to the Daily The News the Provincial Relief
Commissioner confirmed that the provincial government was not expecting herds of IDPs from
the affected areas. He said that amongst these displaced families only 20 per cent are living in
the official camps while the rest are either living with their relatives or in rented houses.
According to social welfare department, Peshawar city accommodated more IDPS than rest of
the cities in the province. The department confirms that 10-15% IDPs (mainly the poor class) do
not want to go back, as they have better access to employment in their displaced location. The
official of social welfare further illustrated that almost 5-10% of IDPs coming back to cities
(where they spent few months of displacement) after going back due to normalization of
security situation in their places of displacement. Field survey ascertained that families having
political affiliation were specifically targeted by the militants during operation. Female
education institutions are at their target. Therefore well-off people and political elites have
managed to arranged second home and shifted all their families to cities like Peshawar,
Abbotabad and Islamabad for security and children education purposes.
According to the data available with Social Welfare Department, so far 514,806 families were
displaced from various parts of the province and FATA region. Majority of them were
accommodated in Mardan, Peshawar and Charsaddah districts.
Table 3.9: Total Population Displaced During Military Operations
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Asylum
Displaced Total Displaced
Population
Localities
Families
Mardan
149294
18,66,175
Peshawar
123553
15,44,413
Charsaddah
108109
13,51,363
Swabi
72073
9,00913
Nowshera
46444
5,79,163
Others
15444
1,93,050
Total
514806
64,35,077
Source: Calculated from SWD Record Book, 2010
37
The matter need to be considered was the post emergencies scenario. The perception was that
war against terrorism and militancy could be over in months, but actually it did not, and is still
continued for an indefinite period. Initially the authorities gave registration to IDPs for 36
months to get food aid, because it was expected that the matter would be solved in this time
period. However, this time period is over since long, but the situation is not satisfactory. Even
then, some of the displaced do return to their homes but the authorities could not succeed to
reopen the disserted schools and colleges (somewhere but that too on the gun point). Sporadic
events still continuing and it did not allow normality within these regions. The parents of school
going children cannot afford any more to waste their children's time and that they decided to
shift their schooling to safer places and to develop alternate source of income as well. These
forces compelled IDPs to select proper places for their asylum and to develop their second
home city. Therefore people having good financial background shifted to better places for their
children's education like Abbotabad, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, while the middle income families
selected Peshawar city or other small town with in Khyber PakhtunKhwa for their asylum.
They settled in existing housing either by paying rents or permanently purchased houses for
themselves. This phenomenon mounted housing and infrastructure demands, particularly in
more concentrated places.
Major Consequences
After reviewing the trends, we now move to consequences of the internal migration and
urbanization in KPK.As discussed in the situation analysis and review of literature and
information above. It has become apparent that research on the consequences or
socioeconomic effects of internal migration and urbanization are rarely available, leaving a
large gap in knowledge/ information to better understand the challenges and impact of internal
migration on the well-being of households and the migrants themselves. Although KP province
has demonstrated the highest flow of migrants within the province as well as towards Sindh and
Punjab and more recently towards Islamabad capital territory, little research and evidence on
the impact of these movements' limits the possibility of making informed policy decisions in
the area. The recent displacements of population due to earthquakes and war on terror make it
even more essential to conduct in-depth research studies on the changing settlements and
migratory patterns in the province. The impact of these changes on the well-being of people is
another neglected area.
The Increasing trend of rapid and unplanned urbanization in the province indicate certain
visible patterns of growth of large, medium and small size towns and cities with increases
in density and place strain on scanty infrastructure in urban areas.
Policy Considerations and Recommendations

The various stakeholders, experts, academics and civil society deliberate and highlight on
certain policy considerations and recommendations;
Political and democratic sustainability is essential for the planning and completion of
development projects in the province.
Proper town planning is required to check haphazard sprawl of urban areas and ribbon
urbanization. And creation of new urban localities.
Law and Order situation in the province is a constraint, posing limitations for the
rehabilitation of IDPs and migrant population. Government must take necessary remedial
measures for the restoration of peace and security in the targeted areas.
Basic needs of people like health, education, recreation facilities need to be promoted in
small and medium sized towns and cities to avoid large and continuous influx of migrant
population towards large urban centers.
Development projects may be accelerated and completed in FATA and other underserved
areas in collaboration with the local administrative to facilitate the local population.
Urban centers in the province are increasingly suffered from overcrowding, traffic
congestion, air and noise pollution.
Insufficient investment and weak management of key infrastructure have resulted in poor
coverage, as well as lack and poor quality of service.
Water and sanitation coverage rates are low.
Access to Solid Waste Management (SWM) services also remains negligible to low.
Most areas are hubs for problems such as health & hygiene, unemployment, drug trade,
crime etc.
Awareness among the masses may be created through media, talk shows, seminars etc for
the proper utilization of available resources and promoting healthy and participatory civic
sense. The involvement of media be encouraged to be on board with public and private
initiatives on adapting to future urban living conditions
Agriculture and Industry sectors need appropriate attention for employment and income
generation to reduce poverty and flight of population and capital from the province.
Migration and urbanization policy be given significant priority to address migration and
activities, throughout the province causing forced migration towards unban centre's within
and in to other provinces.
urbanization dynamics at the provincial level and make it relevant for development policy
making the province.
Necessary legislation needs to be promulgated as a priority to better manage the serious

condition of unplanned urbanization.
The Province indicates the global and national trend of rapid urbanization. The factors
Based on data and information from research papers, consultations and discussions with
contributing in urban population increase have been: Natural increase, Migration, and
Reclassification/area annexation. It is disturbing that urban sprawl, slum settlements, land
grabbing and lack of investment in urban development etc have severely affected the
quality of life of people and has led to the decadence of already weakened urban
infrastructure and its systems.
various stakeholders before and during final seminar, on the complex issues of internal
migration and urbanization in KPK a number of recommendations for policy direction and
possible solution to the stated issues and challenges are
Natural disasters coupled with ongoing militancy in FATA and Malakand, terrorist
38
For a variety of reasons, the urban development sector in the Province, like in other
provinces, has been neglected in the past. The result has been an unmanaged spree of urban
growth, with less than optimal infrastructure, inefficient institutions and poor outreach of
39
services and lack of quality, which has led to poor quality of life of people.
There is an urgent need to have reliable data on migration and urban growth for use in urban
planning and development schemes. Also to enhance the present capacity to generate and
analyze data on migration flows and trends at provincial level
(Annexure-A) Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA)

North West Frontier Province
Malakand Division
To address Governance issues, a more realistic and precise definition and classification is
1.
Chitral District
required for migration data especially for 'urban' 'peri urban' and 'rural' areas based on civic
amenities,
2.
Dir District
3.
Swat District (which includes Kalam)
4.
Malakand Protected Areas
Co ordination among the various infrastructure projects urban in the stream lined.
Encourage research on migration and urbanization in the development nexus. Promote
primary research in relevant institutions to better understand the dynamics of population,

migration and its linkages with poverty, vulnerability and development.
Devise appropriate policy and programme initiatives
to address the rights of migrants,

especially forced migrants and IDP,s suffering in the province
Peshawar Division
5.
Tribal Areas adjoining Hazara District and the former State of Amb.
(Annexure- B) Composition of Tribal Areas (Articles 246 of 1973 Constitution)
The rising trends in rural-urban and urban-urban migration that result in crowding of cities,
rise in unemployment, poverty and growth of slums warrant designing of appropriate

policies and planning to build infrastructure, housing and other social services along with
creation of employment to absorb the growing number of migrant population.
The migration patterns also suggest heavy concentration towards the provincial capital and
large cities. In this regard, a more suitable approach would be to divert migrants away from
provincial capital and large cities towards other potential urban centers.
A new policy paradigm need to be devised to integrate services and basic needs of those
who are compelled to live in slums, poverty, and adverse living conditions without access
to clean water, sanitation and other social amenities of life and security.
Basic needs of people like health, education, recreation facilities may be decentralized to
The Tribal Areas as defined in Article 246 of the constitution are:

a)
Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
b)
Provincially Administered Tribal Areas.

FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA)
Name of Agency/
Frontier Region
Bawar Agency
Area in
Square
Miles
498
Population according
to March 1981 Census
(in Thousands)
289
Mohamand Agency
887
164
Khyber Agency
Orakzai Agency
Khurram Agency
995
403
1305
284
359
294
North Waziristan
Agency
South Waziristan
Agency
Frontier Region
Peshawar
Frontier Region
Kohat
Frontier Region
Bannu
Frontier Region D.I.
Khan
1817
239
2556
310
101
37
Ultman Khel, Salarzai,

Charmungi.
Tarakzai, Halimzai,
khwaezai, Baezai
Safi, Mullagori and Utman
Khel
Afridi, Shinwari, Mullagori
Orakzai
Turi, Bangash,Ziamusht,
Mengal
Utmanzai Wazir, daur,
Saidgi, Gurbaz
Mahsud and Ahmadzai
Wazir
Hassan Khel
363
57
Jawaki and Adam Khel
339
79
Jani Khel, Bakka
1247
86
Bhittani, Sherani
10511
2198
control influx of migrant population towards big urban centers.
Development projects that are introduced in FATA need the collaboration with the local
administration and committees to facilitate local population.
Encourage the media and other advocacy groups to raise awareness among the public, on
the costs-benefits as well as about the causes and effects of internal migration and
urbanization. In the province.
Increase awareness about gender and migration issues through primary data collection and
research on situation of women and migration, their special needs for participation and
access to services in a male dominated scenario.
Finally in the light of situation analysis and the forth coming census UNFPA may like to
revisit its population and development strategy in the new country programme that would
include migration and urbanization in its activities.
40
Main Tribes
41

Urbanization, Trends and Consequences
in province of Sindh:
Linkages with Poverty, Gender, Youth,
Education and Health with focus on
Reproductive Health
Blank
43
CHAPTER FOUR: TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES IN PROVINCE OF SINDH
CHAPTER FOUR
The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization,
Trends and Consequences in Province of Sindh
Sabiha H. Syed, Rabia Sidat and Rahat Erum
An Overview
Internal Migration and consequent urbanization in Sindh have played an important role in the
socio-economic and the political situation in the country. It is also a key factor in the
development planning and infrastructure growth and governance in cities and towns. Due to
multiple reasons of poverty and lack of opportunities there is a continuous as well as a rapid
increase in the internal migration of people to urban areas. Sindh is the most urbanized province
in the country primarily due to natural growth as well as due to rural to urban migration. Its
largest city Karachi has been receiving an influx of migrants from other provinces as well.
Rapid urbanization towards small and large towns and cities is due to rural Population entering
into the urban areas because of poverty, food insecurity, natural disasters such as floods drought
etc; and also in the search of better services of health and education. Sindh is the most
industrialized province of Pakistan. Since independence in 1947, High rate of industrial
development has been taking place. It was also the first capital city of the country till 1964 when
the capital was shifted to Islamabad. Currently more than 50% of Pakistan's industries are
located in Sindh especially in Karachi (Ahmed and Mehmood, 2012).
The rural parts of Sindh suffer from gross deprivation in economic and social opportunities and
basic social services. In the meantime the debate on rural development versus rapid
urbanization continues. Some argue that improving the economic conditions in rural areas
might reduce the pressure on people to move to urban areas. On the other hand, Urbanization is
considered a driver for socio economic and change. The growth of cities is considered as one of
the major forces in establishing a better economic model to improve the quality of life of urban
population and of migrant's populations.
Sindh continues towards becoming more urban province of Pakistan. Therefore the drivers of
internal migration and rapid urbanization in the province need to be better understood in the
economic, political, social and cultural context in order to avoid negative consequences. The
nascent devaluation process so far has not factored the migration issues but must keep internal
migration and urbanization at center stage of regional, local and city planning. The provision of
improvement in basic services, environmental conditions and industrial policies must take
account of internal migration and urbanization as significant policy challenges to mitigate
poverty. The internal migration and urbanization challenges in the province have to be taken
more seriously than the present governance mechanisms which require major and imperative
reforms.
This chapter is based on the evidence and information from various secondary sources of data
and research studies. The aim is to highlight the emerging issues and concerns of internal
migration and urbanization and its impact on Sindh. The overall trends as observed through
various available of data sources on migration and urbanization are discussed.
45
The Situation in Sindh

After independence in 1947, a large number of Hindus migrated to India and Muslims from
India to Pakistan. These migrants later moved within Pakistan in all provinces. In the case of
Sindh, after independence more migrants came from other countries like Afghanistan
Bangladesh and Myanmar as well. Therefore, the migrant influx in Sindh kept growing from
time to time.
The 1961 census recorded the highest inter censual rate of urban growth at 60 percent along
with the highest ratio of urban growth at 4.1 percent. Later it has been gradually decrease to 3.4
percent in 1998.
Table: 4.1 Population of Sindh Inter-Censual growth Period 1951-1998
Sr. No
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Year Of
Census
1951
1961
1972
1981
1998
Population
of Sindh
Urban
(%)
6,054,000
8,374,000
14,158,000
19,029,000
29,991,000
Inter censual
Increase Urban
Growth Rate (%)
Ratio of Urban
to Rural
Growth
6.0
5.2
4.4
3.4
4.1
1.3
1.6
1.8
29.23
37.85
40.44
43.31
48.75
Source: Government of Pakistan, Census Organization, 1951, 1961, 1972, 1981 and 1998
census Reports.
During the 1998 census, Sindh province had 17 Districts, Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, Dadu,
Khairpur, Jacobabad, Sanghar Badin, Thatta, Naushero Feroze, Shaheed Benazeerabad
District (Nawab Shah), Ghotki, Tharparker, Sukker, Mirpus khas, Shikar Pur and Umar Kot
(Govt. of Sindh, 1998). Later the number of districts grew to 23. The additions being are
Jamshoro, Matiari, Shahdadkot, Qamber /Shadad Kot, Tando Allahyar, Tando Muhammad
Khan (Districts of Sindh, 2011). More recently the number of districts of Sindh has increased to
28 (Tunio , 2013).
Table 4.2: Districts in Sindh Province
S.
No
District
District
Headquarters
Area (km
square )
Population
(1998)
1.
2.
3.
Badin
Dadu
Ghotki
6,726
19,070
1,083
1,136,044
1,688,811
970,549
4.
5.
6.
7.
Hyderabad
Jacobabad
Jamshoro
Karachi (East, West,
South, Central,
Malir)
Kashmore
Khairpur
Larkanana
Badin
Dadu
Mirpur
Mathelo
Hyderabad
Jacobabad
Jamshoro
Karachi
Density
(People/Km
square)
169
89
160
5,519
5,278
11,517
3,527
1,565,000
1,425,572
582,094
13,215,631
524
270
51
2,795
Kashmore
Khairpur
Larkanana
2,592
15,910
7,423
662,462
1,546,587
1,927,066
255
97
260
8.
9.
10.
46
11.
12.
13.
Matiari
Mirpur Khas
Naushero Feroz
14.
Shaheed
Benazirabad
Kambar Shadatkot
Sanghar
Shikarpur
Sukker
Tando Allayar
Tando Muhammad
Khan
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
Tharparkar
Thatta
Umarkot
Matiari
Mirpur Khas
Naushero
Feroz
Nawabshah
1,417
2,925
2,945
1,569,030
1,087,571
1,071,533
364
536
369
4,502
924,294
238
Kambar
Sanghar
Shikarpur
Sukker
Tando Allayar
Tando
Muhammad
Khan
Mithi
Thatta
Umarkot
5,882
10,720
2,512
5,165
2,310
1,733
1,453,026
890,438
908,373
550,000
447,215
914,291
157
135
350
176
238
257
19,638
17,355
6,726
1,113,194
663,100
47
64
169
Source: Pakistan Provincial Population Census, Government of Sindh 1998.

As indicated in the above table there is a huge variance in the density of the population amongst
districts. Three districts i.e.; Thatta, Tharparkar and Jamshoro have a density of less than
hundred persons per sq km while the largest metropolitan area in the province as well as in the
country has recorded a density of 2,795 per sq km. Hyderabad, Larakana and Jacobabad have
large population round about fifteen thousand after the Karachi city.
Table 4.3: Annual Growth of Ten Cities of Sindh and its Population, 1981 1998
Sr.
No
Main Cities
Population
1981
Population
1998
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Karachi
Hyderabad
Larkana
Dadu
Khair Pur
Jacobabad
Sanghar
Badin
Thatta
Naushero
Feroze
5437984
2059026
1138580
1081611
981190
1011212
893047
776614
761039
829051
9856318
2891488
1927066
1688811
1546587
1425572
1421977
1136044
1113194
1087571
Population
2010
Projected
13,729,000
2,088,000
1,397000
1,542,000
2,154,000
1,033,000
1,845,000
1,538,000
1,551,000
1,515,000
Annual
Growth
1981-1998
3.56%
2.02%
3.14%
2.65%
2.71%
2.04%
2.77%
2.26%
2.26%
1.61%
Source: Pakistan Population Censes 1981, Pakistan population Censes 1998; NIPS 2010
Table 4.3 indicates that, Karachi stands as the largest city of Sindh with highest annual growth
3.56%, followed by Larkana with approximately with 3.14%, Hyderabad with 2.02 %. Other
cities like Dadu, Khair Pur, Jacobabad, Sanghar, Badin and Thatta all grew approximately at the
nearly 2.5% percent. According to the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), the
projected Population of Sindh in 2010 with 36.34 % urban population (Report: PWDS, 2012).
However these projections will be adjusted at the time of a next census.
47
Migration into and from Sindh has been a historical phenomenon but lack of research its
determinants and consequences has left a large gap in completion of data from different
sources. However a few research studies do cover certain areas within the context of internal
migration and urbanization. The overall review of the literature indicates that the census data
has been the primary source of analysis to determine the inter-provincial and intra-provincial
flows of population movements. Few selected and recent studies on the emerging situation of
the trends of internal migration and its consequences are discussed.
A study on the internal migration and growth of small towns based on data from census and
three provinces including Sindh highlighted Migration as an important phenomenon since
1947 in determining the size and distribution of population in Pakistan. Internal migration of
rural families kept increasing, because many rural people working in the agriculture sector
migrated to industrial towns and cities in Sindh. In the 1970's, many males from all over
Pakistan including Sindh migrated to Middle East as migrant workers. (Arif and Raza, 2009)
Some have argued that Internal Migration and Urbanization has been a historical trend in
Pakistan especially towards Karachi which has been a hub for migration. Issues of poverty,
food insecurity and lack of livelihood opportunities have been linked directly with migration.
People also migrated towards cities in Sindh especially Karachi from the rural areas of Punjab,
KPK and Baluchistan due to its better industrial infrastructure and greater opportunities for
employment (Haris Gazdar, 2003). A desire to move from family labour or payment in kind to
work for wages has pushed rural workers to urban centers. The perceived attraction of better
social services also acts as a strong pull factor for migrants towards cities. (Rashid Memon,
2007).
A report of the Task Force on Urban Development, describes the state of urbanization in
Pakistan and its causes, issues and recommendations required to improve urban planning. It
explains the alarming situation of housing, safe drinking water, sanitation food, transport
employment municipal services and human security.
It points out the critical resource required to absorb the enormous number of people into the
urban areas without any planning on the part of public sector to provide them shelter, food,
employment and municipal services. The private sector as well has come in to meet some of the
needs of migrants to the cities an unplanned manner, giving rise to informal economic solutions
and negative impact to revenue generation (Task Force Report on Urban Development, 2010).
Some micro-level and macro level studies looking at internal migration and employment are
based on various sample surveys such as Labour Force and Household income and expenditure
survey data sets. These to some extent examine and explain the determinants of migratory
movements at national, provincial or district level. However there is a need for much more
focused studies on internal migration and consequent urbanization in the various towns and
cities in all provinces including Sindh, (Khan and Shahnaz, 2000).
A study has evaluated some of the changes taking place in the socio- economic development in
various districts of Sindh. This analysis examines twelve variables i.e. immigration, non
agricultural labor force, employment, population potential etc; of Sindh based census data of
1981 and 1998 It indicates that an Increase in urbanization while having positive impact also
can lead towards growing inequalities (Razzaq and Khalida, 2012).
Table 4.4: Status of Migrant Population in urban areas of Pakistan as a whole and its
provinces', 1981-1998 (000)
Movement of
Immigrants
Total Urban
Population
Total
Punjab
Sindh
KPK
Baluchistan
Islamabad
42,898
(100.0)
23,019
(100.0)
14,480
(100.0)
2,994
(100.0)
1.516
(100.0)
529
(100.0)
Migrants within
Pakistan
Migrants within
the Provinces
35,990
(83.9)
6,909
(16.1)
4,469
(10.5)
2,456
(5.7)
19,520
(84.8)
3,499
(15.2)
1,747
(9.6)
1,747
(7.6)
12,288
(82.8)
2,552
(17.2)
1,603
(10.8)
459
(3.1)
2,612
(87.2)
382
(12.8)
285
(9.5)
192
(6.4)
1,353
(89.2)
163
(10.8)
141
(9.3)
58
(3.8)
217
(40.9)
313
(59.1)
250
(47.3)
-
Migrants from
other Provinces
1,869
(4.4)
365
(1.6)
1,099
(7.4)
90
(3.0)
78
(5.1)
237
(44.8)
Non-Migrants
Total Migrants
Source: Government of Pakistan, Population Censes Report of Pakistan 1998; Arif Hasan
and Raza, 2009
Table 4.4 describes the status of migrant population in the urban areas in each province In Sindh
the total percentage of migrants is 17.2% in the population. Only 3.1% are from within the
province, whereas a double percentage [7.4%] is from other provinces. It is estimated that a
large number of migrants move from rural areas of Pakistan to urban areas of Sindh especially
to its mega city Karachi. (Arif Hasan and Raza, 2009)
Internal Migration and Urbanization Issues in Sindh

Sindh is the second most populated province of Pakistan where the largest city Karachi is also
situated. Karachi is the financial and commercial hub of the country where large scale
industrialization and spread of businesses has been attracting migrants since the birth of
Pakistan. Due to large scale rural to urban as well as migration from other provinces and towns
Karachi is facing huge challenges regarding provision of basic services including housing,
water, sanitation, transport, pollution environment, education ,health and other social welfare
services. The situation worsens after the floods and other natural disasters In 2010 Sindh
witnessed large scale displacement and migration due the flood which compelled the
population living around the river Indus and its delta had to flee towards various urban areas
Apart from this, the feudal system prevailing in the province and the hegemonic control of the
feudal lords over the rural poor is forces the vulnerable people to leave their homes for good.
Table 4.5: Inter-Provincial flows of Migration into Sindh (Percent of Population Reported)
Administrative Areas
Punjab
In (From)
No.
635765
KPK
430848
Baluchistan
76399
Other Areas-Islamabad, FATA etc 70298
(%)
52
Out (to)
No.
16803
(%)
74
36
6
6
12393
22901
21424
6
10
10
Source: Government of Pakistan, District Census Report, 1998.

48
49
The above table 4.5 indicates the migratory flows into the Sindh province. Majority of the
migrants has moved to Sindh from Punjab and KPK while a lesser number of migrants are from
Baluchistan. The out-migration is mostly towards the Punjab province while the lowest outmigration is towards KPK.
Urbanization in Sindh
Sindh is the most urbanized province of Pakistan at 48.75% urban according to 1998 census.
Urban population of Sindh has grown by approximately 5% between the two census periods of
1981 and 1998. It is estimated increase to 60.73% by the year 2030.
Table 4.6: Urban Localities by Population size 1961-1998.
Annual Growth Rate in Sindh
Year Total
1961
1972
1981
1998
68
121
124
163
Number of Urban Localities by

Size
Less
25,000 50,000 One
than
lac
to
to
25,000
49,000 99,000
and
over
55
5
4
4
96
11
8
6
98
14
5
7
105
27
13
18
Urban Population
Number
Percent
3167,018
5725,776
8243,036
14839,862
37.85
40.45
43.32
48.75
Inter
censual
average
growth rate
of Urban
Population
6.00
5.23
4.40
3.52
Source: Pakistan Provincial Census Report, Government of Sindh, 1998

The number of urban localities, i.e. notified corporations, committees and cantonments, has
increased from 125 in 1981 to 163 in 1998. Urban proportion of provincial population has
increased from 5.5 percentage points since 1981 when it was 43.3 percent. This is mainly due to
emergence of new urban localities, city extension and migration from rural to urban areas. In
1998 Census it was noted that some urban localities have boundaries that are adjacent to one
another. Considering such localities as city or town then the number rises to 177 cities or towns
in the province.
The current study clearly indicates that, there are number of common problems in all secondary
cities such as:
Increasing density and difficult human mobility,
Economic specialization,
Shifting land-use patterns,
Inadequate and inappropriate housing,
Water, sewerage and sanitation,
Stress on roads and transport. (Anwar, 2014)

Despite these problems of secondary cities there are also some positive signs of urban
development beyond primate cities for instance:
The secondary cities relieve the pressure from primate cities and act as economic and
social assimilators of their respective rural region.
They perform a social function of accommodating rural migrants who feel comfortable
in an indigenous urbanized environment compare to primate cities. (Hasan, 2009)
Many migrants from rural Sindh move to urban centers to avoid feudal violence as well as from
50
dacoits and robbers. In drought ridden areas of Sindh, people move to urban areas due to
drought, desertification and other adverse effects of climate change. Frequent floods dislodge
thousands of peasant families and compel them to settle in urban areas both in Sindh and the
Punjab provinces after losing their homes to floods is a very important factor responsible for
urbanization in Pakistan. (HABITAT, 2011)
Linkages with Poverty, Gender, Youth, Education, Health including

Reproductive Health
Rapid Urbanization in South Asian cities and particular in mega cities like Karachi
The haphazard urban sprawl is marked by increasing inequality both within and between cities.
In Sindh, urban growth has occurred in an environment of economic uncertainty and weak
governance and political conditions. The unprecedented growth in the number of slums is
alarming; it has led to increasing urban poverty, conflict and violence. The situation of housing
has become critical and is further worsening. According to recent study of ILO indicates that
the formal housing market in many developing cities supply no more 20 percent of the new
planned housing, thereby forcing the urban poor to seek shelter in self-built shanty times and
often informal living conditions, informal rentals, fraudulent subdivisions. People are seen
sleeping in open spaces or even sidewalks.
In South Asia, up to 90 percent of the urban household growth took place in urban slums during
the eighties (Davis, 2006: 18). Pakistan according to UNHABITAT ranks fifth in the world with
a slum population of 35.6 million or 73.6 percent of its urban population. Karachi's squatter
population is estimated to be in excess of 6 to 8 million and it continues to grow at an
exponential rate with the slum population doubling every decade. However, this unabated
growth in slums has exacerbated urban inequality with its population living in cramped
squalors and surrounded by pollution, excrement and decay (Davis, 2006: 19).
Poverty and Growing Inequality in urban areas

It is estimated that at least one-half of the world's urban population falls below the relative
national poverty thresholds (Davis, 2006: 25). A study on the challenges of poor urban
livelihood in Karachi finds that migration can exacerbate poverty in urban areas because of
increasing unemployment due to lack of jobs, high cost of urban property and rents leading to
problem in housing, and a limited capacity of civic services to deal with the pressures of
migration (Essa et al, 2011).
A study undertaken by UNDP and Government of Sindh (GoS) (2012) reveals that the overall
poverty incidence in Sindh is 31 percent with rural poverty at 38 percent in the province.
According to an IUCN study, the rapid and uncontrolled growth in Sindh has prompted
unregulated and inappropriate land use patterns leading to a huge demand-supply gap in
housing, giving rise to the unchecked growth of katchi abadis. The study finds that more than 50
percent of Karachi's population lives in such informal settlements. This trend is also true for a
vast majority of the working classes in Sindh [IUCN. 2012]. In Sindh especially Karachi and
Hyderabad, housing and land ownership in urban informal settlements is usually a de facto
tenure where the politicians, tribal leaders or criminal cartels (known as dalals in Karachi) act
as middlemen to secure guarantee of tenure and protection against eviction of public land
(Davis, 2006: 41).
The asset ownership, poverty incidence in urban Sindh is highest in case of house ownership
51
(22.11 percent) followed by no property ownership (20.15 percent), no house ownership (13.31
percent), and property ownership (8.72 percent). This trend is attributed to the fact that a large
population lives in katchi abadis where a kind of de facto ownership is prevalent [UNDP.GOS
2012].
A survey indicates that the annual demand for new housing units in Sindh is around 120,000
units but the formal sector has only the capacity to provide only 40,000 housing units (IUCN,
2004). Karachi alone requires 80,000 units each year for its ever-growing urban population but
the building control authorities issue only 27,000 permits per year to construct additional
housing units. The demand-supply gap is met, if at all, by squatter settlements which emerge
though informal sub-division of agricultural land or in the inner cities. These katchi abadis do
not receive services through the formal mechanisms; rather, these are acquired through an
improvised system of self-help or political patronage. An estimated 32,000 housing units are
developed in Karachi's katchi abadis every year (ibid.).
The same study elaborates that in Karachi the physical conditions of households in urban Sindh
is actually worse when compared with the national average. Key figures show a high household
density (3 persons per room) and unavailability of basic facilities to urban dwellings, such as
piped water (68.2 percent) and independent latrines (50 percent). Interestingly, 93 percent of
the houses have electricity connections. Moreover, as the urban informal settlements are far
removed from city centers in many instances, the slum dwellers are forced to undertake a long
and expensive commute to their work places. In addition, they have become disengaged from
better quality health, educational, recreational and cultural facilities that adds to their
impoverishment. According to UNDP and GoS (2012) study, dependency ratio in urban Sindh
is 85 percent, and significantly higher than average in the Cotton and Wheat producing districts
of Khairpu rand Ghotki
Urbanization in Sindh has also brought about changes in the socio cultural fabric in the
province a study finds that exposure to electronic media, a decreasing gender gap in literacy in
Karachi, declining marriage rates, and weakening of old clans and tribal affiliations have led to
a more emancipated society in the urban areas. Faced with economic pressures women are
increasingly seeking work outside their homes. Moreover, the younger generation of urban
dwellers in particular is slowly developing a sense of urban values based around the need for
entertainment and recreation. However, more effort is needed on part of government to
promote art, culture, sports and recreation in line with the needs of the urban population.
[Kumar R., 2014]
A study has indicated the emergence of poor pocket in the eastern part of the province i.e.; In
Sanghar district. Whereas it's adjacent districts of as Nawabshah and Naushero Firoze have
attained higher levels of development. The district of Mirpur Khas, after its separation from the
southern district of Tharparkar, has also been able to achieve moderate development level
(Razzaq and Khalida, 2012).
Table 4.7: Poverty Incidence across the Sindh Province, 98/99, 00/01 and 04/05
Province
98/99
Sindh
26.2
Sindh
26.0
Overall
Urban Areas
2000/01 04/05 98/99 2000/01 04/05
World Bank (2006)
37.5
22.4
15.3
20.7
13.8
Anwar (2006)
35.3
22.4
15.6
20.1
14.3
Rural Areas
98/99 2000/01 04/05
34.5
48.3
28.9
34.0
45.0
28.4
Source: World Bank Report 2006 and Talat Anwar 2006

52
Gender and Migration

The concept has been changed that fewer women migrate than men is changing in Sindh.
Women too in large numbers are migrating towards urban areas for better opportunities. The
trend of migration from rural to urban area among women is higher than before. While majority
of women migrated due to their marriage, more and more younger women are migrating for
education and in search of employment [Rizvi 2014].
Table 4.8: Population 1998 by Urban, Rural and Gender in Sindh
Region
Pakistan
Sindh
All Areas
Both
Male
Female Both
Sexes
Sexes
129,175,948 67,221,639 61,954,309 42,950,931
30,439,893 16,097,591 14,342,302 14,839,862
Urban Area
Male
Female
Rural Area
Both
Male
Female
Sexes
22,705,444 20,245,309 86,225,017 44,516,195 41,708,822
7,904,463 6,935,399 44,516,195 8,193,128 7,406,903
Source: Pakistan Population Censes, Provincial census of Sindh, 1998

According to the LFS (2010-2011), 22% of Females migrated out of total Female migration in
Pakistan. On Inter Provisional level, Female migration percentage is 47.32% and on IntraProvisional level Female percentage is 17.2% out of total Inter and Intra provisional migration
respectively. Female migration on Inter provisional level in Sindh is high than Intra level.
Proportions by province form a descending sequence of Baluchistan (38.3%), Punjab (30.5%),
Sindh (27.8%) and KP (16.4%). Proportions by sex in Punjab and Sindh are relatively higher
for males and for females in KPand Baluchistan (LFS, 2110-2011).
Education
There are significant rural-urban gender differential with respect to education indicators in
Sindh. According to the UNDPand GoS (2012) report, the provincial literacy rate (10 years and
above) is 59 percent while urban literacy increased from 45 to 75 percent from 1996 to 2011.
The rural-urban literacy gap in 2011 was 33 percent. There is also gender disparity across urban
and rural Sindh. The study also provides evidence of regional disparity in primary net
enrolment and primary completion rates across urban and rural Sindh. The gap in NER was 16
percent while GER gap was 31 percent in 2011. Overall, primary completion rate was higher in
urban areas than in rural areas in all districts in the province.
Health
The deterioration of urban health and social indicators is a result of overcrowding, social and
economic marginalization, poor environmental conditions, insecurity, and lack of basic social
services in urban informal settlements (Mberu et al, 2014). The basic principles of urban
planning such as preservation of open spaces and separation of harmful land use from
residential areas are neglected in most cities leading to degradation of the physical environment
and numerous public health concerns. In Sindh, 81 percent of children under the age of five
develop acute respiratory infections due to air pollution from vehicles that emit a large quantity
of lead and carbon monoxide Unfortunately, this figure is also highest among the four
provinces of Pakistan.[Farhan Anwer 2014]
In most cities, there is a chronic shortfall between rates of trash generation and disposal. Only
40 percent of the trash in Karachi is collected and disposed. This leads to clogged, overflowing
sewers of human and industrial waste which also poisons sources of drinking water and
exposes the population to several health hazards. Another major issue in cities is the lack of
53
toilets which severely affects women's safety, dignity, health and sense of privacy and may also
expose them to harassment and sexual assault (Davis, 2006.).
Reproductive Health
Some studies have examined the links between poverty, urbanization and reproductive health
priorities, Blessing Mberu et al (2014) has identified poverty reduction, maternal and child
survival, women's empowerment, environmental stability and access to natural resources as
some of the related goals of population stabilization. But unfortunately these concerns are not
prioritized in development plans of poor cities.
High rates of unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted infections, and poor maternal and
child health outcomes are the biggest risks facing the urban poor according to this study. In
urban slums, women cannot implement their fertility preferences. It is also erroneous to assume
that urban residents relative to rural dwellers have better access to health services and products.
Contrarily, inadequate public health facilities in most urban informal settlements and
marginalization of vulnerable populations imply greater challenges in access to sexual and
reproductive health (SRH) services. Hence SRH policies need to specifically target vulnerable
urban sub-groups like slum residents, street children, disabled, urban refugees, internallydisplaced persons and cross-migrants.
2014). Roughly 90 percent of all land in Karachi is state-owned and respective authorities need
to consent to any change to the housing facilities. This is complicated by the fact that there are
17 major institutions that are stakeholders in land ownership with their different procedures to
record and register ownership. Hence, determination of title to a property is not a
straightforward process particularly in the settled and urbanized parts of Karachi but also to
some extent in the rural hinterland where the informal sectors plays a role in land development
and management.
There is evidence of inappropriate land-use changes as a result of urbanization in Karachi and
Hyderabad where the agricultural and pastoral land has been acquired for urban development
projects (IUCN, 2004: 201). In Karachi, the urban sprawl has absorbed around 1,200 goths or
villages resulting in the loss of homes and traditional sources of livelihood for the people.
Urban development has also taken place in protected green areas where katchi abadis have
emerged. The IUCN study finds that encroachments on compulsory open spaces is common in
urban Sindh and developers have also managed to occupy natural drainage channels and
infrastructure reservations which enhances vulnerability of these cities to environmental
problems such as urban flooding due to poor disposal of storm water.
UNDP and GoS, in a 2012 survey concluded that less than half of Sindh's targeted population
has access to LHWs with a significant variation across districts. The use of contraceptives was
more prevalent in urban areas (46 percent) than rural areas (20 percent) and low percentage of
expectant mothers in urban Sindh as well as in rural Sindh have access to ante-natal care. There
is also limited coverage of Skilled Birth Attendants according to this report with 76 percent
urban and 30 percent rural coverage.
The study also finds that due to poor urban planning important infrastructure like cargo
terminals, transport facilities, and warehousing are increasingly found in inner cities to the
detriment of the environment and much of Sindh's built heritage (ibid.). Moreover, due to
absence of formal provision of health and education facilities, even affluent urban
neighborhoods are not immune from land-use changes. Many houses in these areas are
converted into private schools and clinics and some are available for other commercial and
industrial use (IUCN 2004: 202). This does not only cause inconvenience to the residents of
these areas but also results in physical and environmental degradation.
Another study examining the challenges in access to reproductive health care in Pakistan finds
that availability of services is determined by the geographic distribution of fixed and mobile
health facilities and service hours (Ali et al, 2008). Physical accessibility of a primary health
facility providing emergency obstetric care is defined as the proportion of served population
living within 2 to 5 km or at a 20 to 60 minutes walking distance. It is equally important
according to this study for health facilities to be socially accessible in view of religious, tribal,
and cultural barriers. In Sindh, only 12 percent of the facilities are open for just 6 hours a day
whereas 24 hour coverage is provided only by the district headquarter hospital. Moreover, only
33 percent of government hospitals are equipped to offer obstetric care which forces users to go
to private hospitals which are beyond the reach of poor people.
Another example of undesirable commercialization in Karachi, writes Farhan Anwar, is the

encroachment of public spaces like pavements with the erection of billboards that are
susceptible to accidents and that also degrade the aesthetics of the city (The Express Tribune,
October 6, 2014). There is a need for urban renewal of a large number of areas within the inner
city in line with environmental and sustainable development concerns. Anwar recommends an
approach based on carefully established selection criteria to specify zones for either exclusive
commercial land use and densification or mixed uses or both. The selection process needs to
consider the existing land use ownership, habitation pattern and historic development of the
area, detailed Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), availability of civic infrastructure,
access to transportation, and the level of stakeholder willingness and participation.
Housing
Environmental Degradation and Disaster Management
According to the IUCN (2004: 201) report one of the main causes for the unregulated
development of cities is that master plans for Karachi and Sindh's secondary cities have neither
been implemented nor provided the requisite legal cover. Moreover, the planning and building
control institutions have been ineffective in enforcing the building by-laws and zoning
regulations which are routinely violated in collusion with powerful politicians, bureaucrats and
building developers.
Recent situation in Thar Desert
Farhan Anwar, sustainability expert and urban planner, also attributes the urban chaos in
Karachi to the dysfunctional land management system (The Express Tribune, September 15,
54
Davis (2006: 121) asserts that slums and squatter settlements generally disregard notions of
physical safety, public health, and environmental hazards in favor of shelter and security
against eviction. Consequently, slums are found in a wide range of geological areas including
swamps, floodplains, volcanic slopes, unstable hillsides, mountains of rubbish, chemical and
toxic dumps, railroad sides, and desert fringes (ibid.).
In Karachi, 61 percent of the population lives in informal settlements or katchi abadis, and a
large proportion of them occupy land along Malir and Lyari river beds which can flood in
55
periods of rain and high intensity storms (The Express Tribune, June 30, 2014). Densely
populated low-lying localities bound by Lyari River and Karachi harbor where wholesale
business and commercial activity is centered are also vulnerable areas. There are also extensive
settlements on the hills surrounding Karachi or on the foothills that are at risk of hill torrents and
landslides.
According to Arif Hasan (Dawn, August 30 2010), renowned architect and urban planner,
urban Sindh is vulnerable to floods because in particular, low income areas in the urban centers
are surrounded by high roads and rain water from them cannot be drained out. This is
particularly the case in areas around Larkana, Sukkur and Shikarpur. Moreover, the drainage
channels and natural depressions connected to agricultural lands have been encroached upon
for increasing cultivated areas and also for construction of homes and businesses. Solid waste
also frequently collects in open storm drainage channels. Consequently, there is major flooding
in urban areas even during the normal monsoon season.
Farhan Anwar proposes that measures to deal with urban flooding have insofar focused more
on response mechanisms rather than preventative measures (The Express Tribune, June 30,
2014). The Pakistan Meteorological Department issues daily, weekly seasonal forecasts while
the National Space Agency and the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research
Commission conduct regular monitoring and documentation of climatic data while the
National and Provincial Disaster Management Authority have also developed plans to respond
to a crisis situation.
But a long-term approach is needed to reduce the impact of damage from urban flooding, argues
Anwar. This includes development of 'Flood Risk Maps' that identify vulnerable assets and
communities in the city and also improves the design of the drainage network. Moreover,
government needs to devise and implement a strict policy to prevent settlements from forming
in hazardous terrain like river bed and hills and the encroachment of drainage channels for
construction purposes.
The IUCN (2004: 202-3) report finds that due to the combined effect of urbanization and
inappropriate changes in land use, potable water in urban Sindh is contaminated with salts
drained from the drainage basin, sewage, municipal and industrial effluents, and residues of
fertilizer and pesticides discharged by the wastewater disposal systems. This is largely due to
the lack of proper disposal and sewage treatment plants in the major cities. Sometimes the
untreated wastewater is used for farming purposes which poses a major health hazard.
Additionally, the rate of solid waste collection in the province is deplorably low at 40 percent
and the sewage collection and disposal is available to less than 30 percent of the urban
population. The population which is not covered includes katchi abadis and squatters,
industrial areas, and informal manufacturing sector located in residential and commercial areas
of the inner city. The latter also exposes its residents to noise and air pollution. Moreover, noise
pollution has been made worse by the rapid urbanization in Sindh and associated increase in the
number of vehicles, traffic jams, defective and old vehicles, and poor quality of roads.
Another problem for urban slum dwellers is the inflammable nature of their dwellings that
coupled with high population density and use of open fires for heat and cooking present a
looming threat. In the narrow and cramped lanes of these settlements fire can spread at an
extraordinary velocity making it difficult for emergency vehicles to respond in time (Davis,
2006: 127).
56
Youth and Governance

In Pakistan, youth constitutes a major share of working age population. This type of
composition of population presents both potential risks and benefits. On one hand, young
people are more energetic, mobile and flexible while, on the other hand, these young people can
present a great threat to the society if proper economic opportunities are not provided to them.
Youth in Pakistan face number of challenges in their way to work, early start to work, failing to
enter the labour market and difficulties in moving across the jobs. Besides, lack of education,
skill and experience are some of major issues of youth in the labour market (Ahmed and Azeem,
2010).
Pakistan's youthful population structure offers hope and opportunities for development. The
young generation in each province can gear the economy and society in new directions. Youth
in Sindh culture lacks clear definitions; it also has certain values associated to youth and gender.
Young men and women have different ascribed roles. Youth in Sindh have to struggle at various
levels including ethnicity, identity, class, education and health. Which social services are
crucial need of youth, as migrants they become more vulnerable to inequality and lack of
services to meet this essential needs. Unfortunately research is lacking on this issues, concerns
and needs of migrant youth. Studies on Internal migration and urbanization need to focus on
this given knowledge and its linkages to overall development in the society and country.
The rising trends in rural-urban and urban-urban migration that result in crowding of cities, rise
in unemployment, poverty and growth of slums warrant designing of appropriate policies and
planning to build infrastructure, housing and other social services along with creation of
employment to absorb the growing number of the migrant youth population. This means that
no single policy can address migration and urbanization concerns in totality. It involves
different departments at provincial and local levels including both public and private
departments of labour, agriculture, urban development, planning and development, health,
youth, women and child welfare which need to develop an integrated approach to address
migration and urban growth issues. In this regard, a new policy paradigm need to be devised to
integrate services and basic needs of those who are compelled to live in slums, poverty, and
adverse living conditions without access to clean water, sanitation and other social amenities of
life. This requires a well designed scheme for the growth of cities with adequate social services,
employment opportunities, efficient infrastructure and the related systems to absorb the
growing number of migrants and improve their quality of life.
Minorities in Sindh
Table 4.9: Population in Sindh by Religion in Percentage (1998 Census)
Administrative
Unit
Pakistan
Rural
Urban
Sindh
Rural
Urban
Muslim
96.28
96.49
95.84
91.31
88.12
94.67
Christian Hindu
(Jati)
1.59
1.60
1.10
1.80
2.59
1.16
0.97
6.51
0.14
9.77
1.84
3.08
Qadiani
(Ahmadi)
0.22
0.18
0.29
1.14
0.12
0.17
Scheduled
Castes
0.25
0.34
0.06
0.99
1.79
0.14
Others
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.10
Source: Pakistan Population Census, government of Sindh, 1998

57
According to 1998 census, this table 4.9 explains the minorities' percentage of population in the
province. In the urban Sindh, Muslims lives in the province with the largest population (94.67
%), Hindu with (3.08 %) and Christians with 1.84%.In Rural areas, Population of Muslims are
(88.12 %), Hindus are (9.77%) and Christian are (0.14 %) in Sindh.
Policy Considerations and Recommendations

Based on data and information derived from Research, Consultations and Discussions with
various stakeholders before and during the Project activities, on the complex issues of Internal
Migration and Urbanization in Sindh a number of recommendations for policy direction and
possible solutions to the stated issues and challenges can broadly be categorized as
following ;
1. Research
The issue of Internal Migration and rapid Urbanization in Sindh is a huge issue and it has
multiple dimensions: demographic, political, economic, cultural, and historical. However,

general awareness about the dynamics, challenges and impact of internal migration and
urbanization is minimal. It is therefore recommended that concerted and focused research
on related issues is initiated and encouraged on different aspects of internal migration and
urbanization in Sindh.
Taking note of the fact that available data on internal migration and urbanization is far from
being sufficient and contemporaneous, it is recommended that the concerned government

bodies, academic and research institutions and civil society help the collection of scientific
data and make it available for evidence and knowledge based policy formulation.
Encourage Research on migration and urbanization in the development nexus. Promote
primary research in relevant institutions to better understand the dynamics of population,

migration and its linkages with poverty, vulnerability and development.
Think tanks, Academic institutions need to strengthen the role in building a network with
academics and research institutions to promote data and analysis to highlight the role of
migration studies as integral part of Population and Development policies. In this
connection, it is important that the institutions of higher learning courses on internal
migration and urbanization and promote research on these issues, involve their students in
such studies and programs and play an important role in raising awareness and in dealing
with such national issues.
2. Legislation and Policy Making
In view of the discussion the importance of improved legislation and involvement of civil
society in management of urbanization issues is recommended.
To address Governance issues, a more realistic and precise definition and classification is
required for migration data especially for 'urban' 'peri urban' and 'rural' areas based on civic
amenities, Co ordination among the various infrastructure projects urban in the stream
lined.
The rising trends in rural-urban and urban-urban migration that result in crowding of cities,
rise in unemployment, poverty and growth of slums warrant designing of appropriate
58
policies and planning to build the necessary infrastructure, housing and other social services
along with creation of employment to absorb the growing number of migrant population.
Maintaining that internal migration still continues to increase and managed urbanization
may eventually generate harmony, prosperity and progress, it is recommended that

collective efforts should be undertaken to convert the challenges into opportunities.
In the way to address the unplanned urbanization and forced migration in Sindh in proper
perspective, suitable platform/s are needed. The government, civil society, media and
institutions of higher learning should work together for the uplift and empowerment of the
marginalized and vulnerable groups through provision of basic education, health, housing,
transport, water and sanitation.
The sudden conversion of agricultural land into built-up structures along agricultural land,
cultivation, highways and link roads by informal sector actors must be totally discouraged
and dealt with iron hand of government because it creates a security concern among local
population and mainly affects the revenues collection of the Government.
3. Awareness Raising
It is recommended that the electronic and print media should be urged to highlight the issues
relating to internal migration and urbanization in Sindh, pave the way for debate, discussion
and discourse at regional and national level on different aspects of urbanization and internal
migration, This would encourage the policymakers and programme managers to formulate
and execute concrete policies in this regard.
Encourage the media and other advocacy groups to raise awareness among the public, on
the costs-benefits as well as about the causes and effects of Internal Migration and
Urbanization in the province.
4. Social Services
A new policy paradigm need to be devised to integrate services and basic needs of those who
are compelled to live in slums, poverty, and adverse living conditions without access to
clean water, sanitation and other social amenities of life and security.
It is recommended that the challenges and hardships faced by the various segments of
society due to social, economic and political migration especially the poor, women, youth
and children should be selected for better province of basic services including Health and
Education.
Basic needs of people like health, education, recreation facilities may be decentralized to
control influx of migrant population towards big urban centers.
5. Looking Ahead
MRG and other working Migration situation are encouraged to continue this effort to raise
awareness on the importance of Migration research and evidence based policy choices. It is
recommended that UNFPAcontinues its effective support to encourage and promote the key
role of migration as an essential part of population policy and programme through research
and training in migration studies.
A evaluate to facilitate the important role of P&D Department, Government of Sindh
UNFP
59
in formulating migration and development agendas of the province, recognize the role of
migration as a critical factor in human and regional development of the province through
research and managed urban development.
Finally in the light of situation analysis and the forth coming census UNFPA may like to
revisit its population and development strategy in its country programme that would include
migration and urbanization in its activities as an integrated approach to improved
Reproductive Health and Gender concerns.
60
The State of Internal Migration and its

Impact on Urban Governance:
THE CASE OF BALUCHISTAN
CHAPTER FIVE: THE CASE OF BALUCHISTAN
CHAPTER FIVE
The State of Internal Migration and urbanization
in Province of Baluchistan
Saeed Shafqat and Hajira Zafar
An Overview
Internal migration is a fundamental demographic, social and economic feature of Pakistan,
affecting up to half the population of the country (Memon, 2005). Internal migration has
impacted Pakistan's cities, towns and villages and has transformed the urban demography. The
implications are contradictory and complex. On the one side it has led to somewhat nuanced
regional development by uplifting living standards of migrant-sending households; on the
other hand it has also caused urban congestion, overcrowding, and impacted the accessibility
and quality of limited public resources in migrant receiving areas. Internal migration, thus in
complex ways, is impacting upon labor market, productivity, employment levels, the family
structure as well as on governance and law and order.
The causes of migration are also multiple. Individuals and families migrate due to myriad of
reasons; Job search, postings and transfers, marriage, family progression, health and education
are amongst the many reasons for migration. For an individual migration can be seen as a route
to economic opportunity. However, Individual /household rationality regarding migration does
not always translate into socially optimal levels of migration at the macro level (Memon, 2005).
While popular discourse has emphasized the povertymigration linkage, more recent research
has shown that economic migration constitutes less than one-fifth of the total migration stream
(Memon, 2005).
Situation Analysis
This chapter explores and analyses the status of internal migration in Baluchistan, which is
territorially the largest province of Pakistan (around 43% of total area) and population wise the
smallest, with only 6% of the total population residing in the province. In 2009 the urban
population of Pakistan was over 57.3 million and growing at the annual rate of urbanization of
over 4 percent (URC 2010). Currently, Pakistan is considered one of the fastest urbanizing
countries of South Asia. The estimated urban population is 36.2% of total population (2011)
and the rate of urbanization is 2.68% (CIAannual rate of change 2010-2015). The trend towards
urbanization is driven by expectations of better economic opportunities, improved quality of
social services and better living standard and quality of life. Like rest of the country Baluchistan
has also experienced rapid urbanization. For example, Quetta's population witnessed 7 fold
increases (Jan et al, 2008) from 1951 to 1998. Compared to other provinces, the rate of
urbanization remained fastest in Baluchistan, particularly during the years 1972- 1981 and to
1998. According to another study, Quetta's rate of urbanization was the second highest in the
country (after Islamabad) at 4% per year (Reza Ali, 2002) during 1981-1998. The Draft CDSB
claims that the urban population in Baluchistan grew at a rate of over 5% from 1981 to 1998
which is the highest in Pakistan. Baluchistan's population is projected to increase by over 50%
during 2013-2030 and almost 50% of this is expected to be urban.
63
Table 5.1: Provincial Distribution by Destination (Inter and Intra Provincial) (%)
Provincial Distribution by Destination (Inter and Intra Provincial) (%)
PUNJAB
SINDH
KPK
Baluchistan
PIHS
CENSUS
LFS
PIHS
CENSUS
LFS
LFS
PIHS
PIHS
CENSUS
CENSUS
LFS
Share in
Population
% of
Migrants
Migrants
as % of
Population
55.0
57.2
55.6
22.3
22.6
23.0
13.4
4.9
3.9
5.0
3.9
5.0
70.8
68.1
67.0
17.7
26.2
25.1
8.0
5.1
5.7
1.4
0.4
2.2
27.6
15.7
9.1
17.0
16.0
9.3
13.5
5.2
3.7
6.1
1.4
3.8
Sources: Pakistan Integrated Household Survey 1998, Labour Force Survey 1998, Pakistan
Population Census 1998; Rashid Memon, 2005
Baluchistan continues to show rise in migration rates, it's not significant but upward trend is
visible. From 2011 to 2013, Inter-provincial migration increased from 0.6% to 1.2 % and Intra
provincial migration raised from 0.3 to 0.4 % (LFS 2010-2011, 2012-2013). Jan and Iqbal use a
method based on the Weighted - Matrix approach to calculate Urban- Rural population
projection and find that the urban population of Pakistan of 32.5% in is expected to rise to 50%
by the year 2030. The tempo of urbanization in the relatively lower urbanized provinces like
N.W.F.P and Baluchistan is considerably higher, while it is lower in the highly urbanized
province of Sindh. (Jan et al, 2008).
Jan and Iqbal further use a specially designed method Urban- Rural Populations Projections
based on weighted matrix approach which focuses on internal migration. The projections
show urban population in Baluchistan surpassed rural population in 2010, and the future trend
shows that it will keep increasing (see graph 1). Their projection on urbanization is little more
conservative as compared to Draft CDSB, Jan and Iqbal estimate rising to 45.56% by 2030 and
50% urban population by 2040.
Figure 5.1: Urbanization Trend for Baluchistan
Table 5. 2: Provincial Distribution of Migrants by Origin

(Inter and Intra Provincial Migration)
Provincial Distribution of Migrants by Origin (Inter and Intra Provincial Migration) (%)
Place of Previous Residence
LFS
Census
Punjab
54.1
45.3
Sindh
18.4
8.8
KPK
8.7
12.9
Baluchistan
1.0
2.3
Other Countries
27.6
Northern Areas
0.9
AJK
0.1
2.3
Others
16.9
1.2
Source: Rashid Memon, 2005 Determinants and Trends of Internal Migration.

The Census and the labor force survey define Migration as the population's movement from one
administrative district to another administrative district at any time of their lives, excluding
those who have moved within the district. Pakistan Integrated Household survey's definition of
migrant however also includes the intra-district movements and those who have moved from
one village to another within a district. A look at the 1998 data from the census, PIHS and LBS
shows that Baluchistan had a relatively low proportion of migrants as percentage of population
in 1998, compared to other provinces. Baluchistan also stands at the lowest among the migrantsending areas as migrants by origin from Baluchistan are a meager 2.3 %. However migration
rates have spiked over time. In the past three decades Baluchistan has experienced increasing
rates of rural-urban as well as intra and inter-province migration. It is pertinent to note that rural
to urban migration which accounts for 26.2% of the total flow of migrants within and between
areas, is the highest in Baluchistan (42.3%) followed by Sindh (27%) and Punjab ( 18.9%).
64
Source: Jan, Iqbal and Iftakharudin (2008)

Transhumance or cyclical movement between various places of habitation over a time period,
and has also been a predominant feature of Baluchistan's pastoral economy. Baluch and
Pashtun tribes have institutionalized systems of transhumance spread across distances ranging
thousands of kilometers (Gazdar, 2007).The Kuchi pastoralists from Afghanistan, for example,
have traditionally moved south across the border with their herds, across Baluchistan all the
way down to Southern Sindh. They have been travelling along these routes for generations,
well before the political strife and war in Afghanistan.
Environmental stress particularly droughts is one of the primary reasons that lead to the
dissipation of the pastoralist lifestyle and seasonal migration. Gradually due to depletion of
livestock herds, loss of grazing land due to long periods of drought led to disruptions in set
patterns of mobility as people took up more permanent homes in agrarian regions and gave up
their pastoral lifestyles (Gazdar, 2007).
65
Table 5.3: Migrant Population of Baluchistan

Percentage distribution of migrant population 10 years of age and over by place of
present and previous residence, area, sex and provinces 2012-2012
All areas (previous residence rural/urban)
Place of
Place Of Previous Residence
Present
Total
Khyber
Punjab Sindh Baluchistan AJK FATA Gilgit
Residence
Pakhtunkhwa
Baltistan
Both sexes 100.00
12.37
62.58 18.52
1.24
1.60 3.30
.39
Khyber
12.28
5.27
1.88
2.17
.15
.06 2.61
.13
Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchistan
66.96
20.20
.55
4.06
2.98
.06
55.84
4.76
.10
4.90
11.35
.10
.27
.53
.30
1.40
.14
.41
.27
massive Afghan migration to the city. Apart from the internal politics, the city has also acquired
global importance for being an alleged logistic space for both sides in the war of Afghanistan
(Ghazdar and Ahmed, 2010). Quetta is ethnically diverse and is inhabited by two dominant
ethnic groups; Baloch and Pashtun. It is a shared space as well as point of rivalry for Baloch and
Pashtuns. The city has also borne the repercussions of two wars; the Baloch insurgency as well
as the Afghan war. It is important to delve into the historical, political and ethnic dynamics of
Quetta to gain a better understanding of the reasons and repercussions of internal migration.
Figure 5.2: Rural Urban Population
.09
.17
Labor Force Survey 2012-2013

Table 5.3 depicts the trends of the migration flows. It shows that 18% of Baluchistan's
population is of Punjabi origin and another 18% belong to Sindh. Migrants from KPK
constitute 11% of the population. Among migrant receiving areas, Sindh has the highest
number of Baluch migrants followed by Punjab.
Quetta: Ethnic Melting Pot or Overburdened with Migrants

According to 1998 Census, Quetta city had a population of 529,180. Current estimates suggest
the city has a population varying from 870,000 to 2. 5 million and is considered the sixth largest
city of Pakistan. Amidst a predominantly tribal Baluchistan, Quetta stands out as an urban
center. Quetta is strategically located as a trade and communication hub amidst three countries,
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. The city is located on the Bolan Pass route, which was
historically one of the main access points from Central Asia to South Asia. The Bolan Pass has
been used by traders, invaders, and nomadic tribes as an entryway into South Asia. Due to its
unique location and characteristics the city has attracted migrants from within Baluchistan as
well as from other countries, particularly Afghanistan.
Quetta is the most modern city in Baluchistan and in that provincial context offers attractive
economic opportunities. It is a business and financial hub and attracts thousands of temporary
and permanent migrants throughout the year. Compared to other cities of the province, it also
provides better education and health facilities generating migration streams towards it.
Historical Context: The colonial enclave attracts Migration Streams:

To understand Quetta's significance as the primate city, it is important to analyze Quetta
through a historical lens. During colonial times, Quetta was of strategic importance to the
British. The British acquired land from tribes and turned Quetta into an urban enclave by
populating it with migrants for functional and administrative purposes. Gazdar observes that
Quetta's status as a 'colonial enclave' during the British rule was an important source of
migration.
The city continued to retain this position even after independence. However, during the decade
of 1970's two additional factors made Quetta a migrant destination, first it became the hub of
political and democratic transition, second the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, led to
66
Source: Pakistan Population Census 1998

Figure 4.2 shows that Quetta was 74% urbanized in 1998, which is considerably higher than in
all other districts. Gwadar was the second most urbanized district at 54%, followed by Lasbela
which was 37% urban.
Table 5.4: Total and Urban Population of Quetta by ethnicity (1901 and 1998)
Total and Urban Population of Quetta by ethnicity (1901 and 1998)

1901
1998
Total
Urban
Total
Urban
Pashtun
30.1%
11.0
30.0%
23.7%
Baloch/Brahui
18%
2.3
27.6%
24.6%
Other
3%
1.5
17.5%
20.7%
indigenous
Settler
41.%5
71.8%
31.0%
, 25.0%
a
Source:
European
7.3% Harris Gazdar's
13.4%Calcul tion 2010
0.00%
0.00
The ethnic mix of Baluchistan according to the 1901 and 1998 censuses reveals that the Pashtun
population is in majority in Quetta whereas the Baloch/Brahui surpasses the Pashtun
population in urban areas as per the census of 1998. Over the decades the dynamics of the
Quetta have changed and now some of the surrounding rural parts are urbanized because of
migration. Also the Baloch and Pashtun population has increased over the years and now has
significant political power and penetration in government(Gazdar, 2010)
67
Table 5.5: Population of Quetta by Ethnic Group in Percentages

Pashtun
Baloch
Brahui
Other indigenous to Baluchistan
European
Settler
1901
30.1%
1.9%
16.1%
3.0%
7.3%
1911
20.3%
1.8%
18.6%
0.2%
7.0%
52.1%
1921
11.4%
0.9%
13.4%
1.5%
6.7%
66.1%
1951
21.7%
3.8%
14.5%
8.9%
0.3%
50.7%
1961
27.2%
4.2%
14.7%
8.3%
45.5%
1981
36.5%
5.1%
17.1%
8.8%
32.5%
1998
30.0%
27.6%
17.5%
25.0%
Source: Pakistan Population census Reports (1901---1998)

For the last century, Pashtuns have comprised the largest percentage of 'indigenous' residents of
Quetta, with Balochi speakers being a very small minority. In the 1998 census however, the
Baloch and Brahui speakers were grouped together as one, but the Pashtuns still outnumbered
them. Settlers i.e. people not indigenous to Baluchistan comprise 1/4th of the city's population,
showing that migrants are a significant part of Quetta. Another interesting trend is the drastic
fall in the settler population between 1961 and 1998.
Quetta is the most urbanized district in the province of Baluchistan with over 70% urban
population. It also has a population growth rate of 4.5% which is one of the highest in Pakistan's
urban centers. Quetta also has the second highest per capita district gross product in the
province. In the year 2011, Trade accounted for about 43% of district product, community
services accounted for 13.6 while manufacturing, agriculture, and mining accounted for 11.3%,
3.2% and 2.1% respectively. Like other provincial capitals of Pakistan Quetta has also emerged
as a service sector oriented city (BCDS 2012-2020). It is pertinent to remember that credible
data is serious limitation while assessing the rates of urbanization and migration trends in case
of Baluchistan. There has been no population census since 1998 making it difficult to ascertain
trends in population and migration. The projected population growth by NIPS on the basis of
1981 to 1995 census is 4.2%. There is yet another data set problem, because after Soviet
intervention in Afghanistan an estimated 3.5 million Afghans were pushed into Pakistan,
initially as refugees, who were expected to return home. However, over the decades a huge
number has acquired residence in Pakistan. In case of Baluchistan, their undocumented status
continues to skew migration and urbanization estimates. This is especially important in the
case of Quetta, as it is invariably remarked that every fourth person in Quetta is Afghan.
Urban infrastructure: Emergence of Squatter settlements.
Owing to rapid population growth and inadequate institutional capacities to plan and provide
services, nearly half the city's inhabitants live in squatter settlements (Katchi Abadis).The
settlements have grown organically, making the provision of infrastructure a challenge for
Local Government and communities.
Quetta District: According to the 1998 census, Quetta district had the largest population
(759941) in the province of Baluchistan, although it is the third smallest in area-2653 Square
Kilometers. Figure 4 and Figure 5 show that Quetta had the highest population as well as
greatest population density among all provinces in 1998. Besides Quetta, most of the urban
centers are small towns that have grown over the years through informal housing and bazaars.
Taking cognizance of urban growth, now the Baluchistan government has planned to undertake
a prioritized development of the entire district's headquartering cities. The primary city
68
headquarters include Quetta, Pishin, Gwadar, Lasbela, Kech, Loralai, Sibi, Khuzdar, Nasirabad
and Kila Abdullah. The economies of these cities are driven primarily by agriculture and
livestock, as the government plans make these cities as potential markets and centers of growth,
it would need to invest in enhancing the infrastructure and commercial activities around them.
Quetta district has a large urban population (74.36%) with the second highest annual growth
rate (4.13%). It provides good public services, having the largest number of houses with
electricity (94.04%), piped water (79.75%), gas for cooking (77.53%) and second highest
number of pacca housing units (56.49%).
Table 5.6: Comparative overview of urban centers in Baluchistan (Demographics)
Growth Urban
Rate
Population
Quetta
Pishin
Lasbela
Turbat
Gwadar
Loralai
Nazirabad
Khuzdar
Sibi
Killa
Abdullah
4.51
3.1
5.17
3.81
3.46
2.38
2.37
3.51
1.8
5.7
Over 70%
Over 30%
Over 50%
Over 30%
Projected
Population
2013 (000)
Projected
Urban
Population
2013(000)
Projected
Rural
Population
2013(000)
Projected
Population
2020 (000)
1348
613
390
473
282
368
406
598
162
698
1037
39
135
74
48
43
67
170
56
110
356
582
229
372
239
323
366
430
117
603
1835
736
556
615
357
434
478
761
184
1030
Source: Baluchistan Comprehensive Development Strategy 2013-2020 Compiled by author
Gwadar
The establishment of Gwadar port city as a strategic deep sea-port is a major event in the recent
development history of Baluchistan. Gwadar is one of the most rapidly urbanizing districts of
Baluchistan. With an urban population of over 50%, Gwadar is attracting economic migrants
from all over Baluchistan. It is expected to be an important player in regional trade a driver of
growth and in the coming years. The city's population is estimated to reach over 350,000 in
2020. Its strategic location and potential role in regional trade make it a significant driver of
growth, urbanization and migration in Baluchistan in the coming years. Since 2003, a
perceptible change in the economic activities of the district has taken place. Construction has
emerged as the second largest economic activity after fishing. The population of Gwadar is
increasing rapidly with migration from other areas to cater to emerging employment
opportunities in the construction sector. Development prospects in Gwadar are attracting
people in large numbers to settle in the area. This trend is expected to lead to a substantial
increase in the district's population in the near future.
Migration from other provinces into Gwadar could become an important feature of the
demographic change and tension as the new employment opportunities would need skilled,
qualified and professional manpower to manage the dynamics of change and economic growth
while the manpower in Gwadar is untrained and unskilled. It could produce a sense of
depravity, marginalization among the local population. To curb discontent and fear of
69
marginalization among the people of Gwadar, the provincial and federal governments would
need to devise policies to educate and train local youth and develop their skills to meet
opportunities of employment the development Gwadar offers (BCDS 2013-2020). There are
visible indicators of migration to upcoming urban centers and coastal areas (IUCN, 2007).
Lasbela: has a burgeoning urban population of over 30% and is one of the most developed
districts of Baluchistan with a growth rate of 5.17%. Manufacturing contributes 36.5% of the
GDP, which is the highest in the province. It is an industrial hub and hosts five industrial estates
and has a high share of skilled workers at 39% of the labor force. Industrial activity and a high
demand for skilled and unskilled labor make it an attractive urban center for migrants. With the
exception of Loaralai, Nasirabad and Sibi, all other urban districts have growth rates above 3%.
Social development indicators are poor for most districts with the exception of Quetta. Thus
Quetta remains as the most attractive district for incoming migrants (BCDS 2013-2020).
Rising Rural to Urban Migration:

As noted, the causes of rural to urban migration are multiple and the impact these have on urban
social life and ecology is wide ranging and deep. The total rural-urban migration is the highest
in Baluchistan having risen to 42.3% from 38.3% during the years 20122013 (LFS 20122013). This puts enormous pressure on the infrastructure and public officials to devise policies
to combat and manage the social, environmental, economic as well as political challenges that
migration and urbanization generate. In the following section, I would like to systematically
identify some of the key factors that accelerate migration or people to move from rural to urban
centers.
Migration and Economic opportunity:

A number of studies attribute migration from rural to urban centers to lack of employment
opportunities in the rural areas and prospects of employment, better living standards and
services in the urban centers. If the city's growth rate does not correspond with migration rate
then city suffers from overcrowding, and Quetta exemplifies this trend. Thus, Kachiabadis
(squatter settlements) have emerged disproportionately in and around Quetta; which has put
enormous pressure on health, sanitation, housing and educational facilities available in the city.
The city has 47 Katchi Abadis (KA) with an average household size of 10.5 people (Sanitation
and Hygiene study, 2008). Migration and urbanization have adversely affected the existing
sanitation system in Quetta. Recognizing the seriousness of the situation, the Netherlands
Government funded a local environmental management program (1997- 2003) which involved
a partnership among city governments, community and non-governmental organizations.
The project aimed to encourage self-help environmental management by residents of lowincome settlements and worked with 47 Katchi Abadis in Quetta during the above mentioned
period. The poorest communities in these Katchi Abadis were Hindus and Christian minorities
living in the slum of Shantinagar, Quetta. It is evident that mobilization has been easier in
progressive communities such as the Hazara, it was difficult in areas inhabited by conservative
Baluch tribes. Due to rising population and the use of water per capita, effluents have also
increased without any provision for their disposal. This poses severe health hazards from fecal and water - borne diseases (ibid). Another visible trend is not 'ruralization' of urban social and
cultural life. High migration rate has made this contradiction increasingly pronounced in
70
Quetta.
Table 5.7: Reasons for Migration in Baluchistan 2012-2013
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRANT POPULATION 10 YEARS AND OVER
BY MAIN REASONS OF MIGRATION, AGE, SEX AND AREA 2012 -13
BALUCHISTAN
MAIN REASON OF
MIGRATN
MIGRANT POPULATION
All areas
Rural
Female Total
Urban
Total
Male
TOTAL
100.00
51.62
48.38
Job transfer
8.80
7.83
.97
.38
.38
8.42
7.45
.97
Found a j0b
4.58
3.98
.60
.85
.85
3.73
3.12
.60
Searching for a job
5.45
5.45
.67
.67
4.78
4.78
Searching for a
better Agriculture
land
2.58
1.53
1.71
.85
.87
.68
Education
1.15
1.15
1.15
1.15
Business
4.48
4.12
.35
.43
.43
4.05
3.69
.35
Health
.06
.03
.03
.02
.01
.04
.02
.02
1.04
Male Female Total Male Female
28.56 10.46 18.10 71.44 41.17 30.27
Marriage
27.20
3.48
23.72 14.44
2.80
With parents
27.38
19.88
7.50
4.08
2.40
With spouse
12.70
.67
12.03
2.72
With son/daughter
1.02
.31
.71
Returned to his
home
1.42
.94
.48
.95
.48
OTHER
3.26
2.28
.98
2.33
1.59
.85
.01
11.64 12.76 .68
.19
12.08
1.68
23.30 17.48
5.82
2.72
9.98
.67
9.31
1.02
.31
.71
.48
.47
.47
.74
.93
.69
.24
Source: Labor Force Survey 2012-2013

Table 5.7 shows that in the year 2012-2013, the most common reason for migration in
Baluchistan after marriage and moving to live with family, is that of employment or economic
opportunity. Job transfer, found a job and searching for a job cumulatively account for 19% of
the total migration in the province.
Table 5.8: Unemployment Rates in Baluchistan
Unemployment
Baluchistan
Rural
Urban
2011-2012 (millions)
2012-2013 (millions)
0.07
0.1
0.04
0.06
0.03
0.04
Unemployed Pakistan and Provinces
Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13
Unemployment rates in urban Baluchistan are significantly lower than in rural areas of the
province. In 2011-2012, 30,000 workers out of the labor force were unemployed in urban areas
71
as compared to 40,000 in rural areas. The number increased to 40,000 in urban areas the
following year (2012-2013), however, the number in rural areas increased by 50% to 60,000.
Even though unemployment is increasing in both urban and rural areas, the increase in rural
areas is much more significant. The Average household urban-rural income differential is very
significant. Urban income is 32% higher than rural areas; the high income differential is a
reason for increasing migration into urban Baluchistan (PES 2012-2013)
Migration of Afghan Refugees

Quetta has the highest number of Afghan refugees who are also considered migrants as a
percentage of its population, with 59.5% of the population of Afghan origin in the province.
The overwhelming majority of Afghan migrants have changed the city's demography in favor
of Pashto speakers. Afghan presence has been a source of perpetual conflict in Quetta. The
Balochis assert that the influx is outnumbering them and that it has also propelled the entry of
the Afghan Taliban into Quetta thereby worsening the security situation. Despite Quetta's
capacity to absorb the stream of Afghan migration, their assimilation process has been rather
slow and mixed. The Afghan migrants retain a few distinct characteristics. Although many
Afghan migrants acquire Pakistani identification documents yet they are distinguishable from
a Pashtun or Baloch. A visit to an extended slum called Akhrotabad presented an interesting
picture and provided useful insights. The slum area was densely settled by the Afghan Refugees
with mud houses. There was no sewerage system, water supply system or road network, health
or school facilities.
I was informed that out of an estimated 300 to 500 Thousand Afghan refugees in the city of
Quetta, 70% are settled here. There was a mushroom growth of new but mostly unplanned
housing societies in and around Quetta city. The urban growth in the form of scattered housing
towns and slums is pronounced and visible in and around Quetta. On the other side a visit to
Cantonment of Quetta tells the tale of another city. Where shopping malls, smuggled goods and
restaurants seem to have a thriving business which indicates that the city has a growing middle
class and given the security situation in the city, the Cantonment area appears secure, safe and
full of life. Security and safety attracts commerce and trade and improves quality of life and
Cantonment manifested that. There is trend of inward migration, whereby traders, businesses
from the city markets and even from other cities of Baluchistan are shifting towards Quetta
Cantonment. This has resulted in escalating the real-estate price.
Most of the businesses, shops and housing in the area are owned by the Pashtuns and Afghan
migrants. The infrastructure, roads, schools, security and health facilities are strikingly well
planned. Thus, Quetta is the 'tail of two cities', the cantonment side shining and expanding the
other older part, decaying, overcrowded, insecure and increasingly populated by the Afghan
migrants.
During our field visit and focus group discussions in Quetta, the following points and
observations on migration, urbanization, changing social behavior and absence of policy and
planning came under discussion and merit attention:
Migration of Afghan refugees and their settlements on the outskirts of the city has changed
the complexion and cultural life of the city. Where, water, sanitation, education, housing
and road networks are overstretched and crumbling.
Most of the migrants to Quetta city were Pashtuns other than the Afghan refugees. In
72
commerce, trade, education and transport Pashtuns had overwhelming presence.
Migration to Quetta city and across the province was attributed to deteriorating law and
order situation in the province. While conducting interviews and focus group discussions in
Quetta, Dr. Saeed Shafqat was informed that large number of people have migrated from
Khuzdar, Turbat, Makran Coast and even Quetta and moved to either Karachi or to interior
Sindh; to cities like Shikarpur, Larkana and Hyderabad and in some cases to Multan.
Water scarcity was alarmingly high in and around Quetta city, it was attributed to unplanned
growth of housing, large scale population influx and dwindling water reservoirs.
Endemic poverty and low skill levels among the migrants, particularly Baluch were
considered and identified as a major source of discontent among the youth.
Traffic jams and exponential growth of vehicles is another striking feature of the city. There
are 14,000 registered rickshaws in Quetta city but with the number of unregistered included;
the figure would be much higher. The total number of registered vehicles in 2013 in Quetta
city was 44,000. However it could be much higher in case unregistered are included.
Factors related to security were described as the major cause of migration to the cities as
well as across the province. The insecurity in the rural areas was conveyed to be more
intense. Hence migration from rural areas to urban centers where life is perceived to be little
better and secure is higher.
Migration and Conflict

The Afghan Factor: Afghan refugees are also one of the important contributors in the growing
urbanization of Quetta as their spread is far beyond the refugee camps in Surkhab, Jungle Pir
Alizai and Girdi Jungle. Their economic needs also push them to move to Quetta and many of
them are still residing there. The migration of Afghan Pashtun to Quetta is of extensive political
debate and controversy as Baloch National claims that they are accommodated in Quetta as a
deliberate act of policy changing the ethnic demography of city. As per UNHCR (2005) census
there were over 3 million Afghans in Pakistan. Out of these 337,000, or around 11 percent, were
in Quetta. By including the Afghans the percentage of Pashtuns increases from 30 to 42%
significantly overcoming the Balochi/Brahui population. Studies and research conducted by
Selig Harrison, Nina Swidler and Gazdar attribute migration in Baluchistan in general and to
Quetta in particular to three factors.
The first is what have been describes as the two wars, 'Afghan war and internal insurgency'. In
the past forty years these two wars have been the primary source of displacement and migration
for the people to Quetta City. The emphasis is for on two phases of Afghan war 1979 to
1989(linking it to 1973-74) and 2001 to date. Similarly for internal insurgency, Harrison and
Gazdar specify the first phase, 1973-1977 but provide insight to earlier phase by focusing on
the interventions of the Pakistani state. A number of studies assert that in the 50s and 60s state
policy and interventions caused insurgency among the Baluch tribes. The second phase of
insurgency which began in 2003 and intensified in 2006/7 continues to persist even today (story
of missing persons). So from his perspective, these two wars continue to promote migration.
The conflict between Baloch Nationalist insurgency and the Pakistan government has also
resulted in the increased inflow of migrants into Quetta. Conflict in Dera Bugti, and the
eventual killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti made the political situation more unstable, volatile and
73
precarious. Over 84,000 people from the area were displaced and living in makeshift camps in
and around Quetta. Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 and the long-drawn war that
followed exacerbated the scale of violence, instability as well as cross-border involvement.
During the first period of the Afghan war (1979-1989) hundreds of thousands of Afghan
refugees poured into Quetta, and remain there till the present day. This led to Quetta becoming a
centre for Afghan Mujahedeen in the 1980s and later a hotbed for Taliban activity (Baluchistan
case study). The global War on Terror has also been a significant contributor to Afghan
migration into Quetta. Post 2001 and the US invasion of Afghanistan, the instability in the
country has caused many Afghans to pour into neighboring Pakistan as refugees.51% of
Afghan refugees in Pakistan today entered the country after 2001.
The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 led to a massive inflow of Afghan migrants into
Baluchistan. In 2005 Afghan migrants comprised a quarter of Quetta's population and a 9% of
Baluchistan's entire population (Gazdar et al, 2010). We have discussed the reasons and
implications of the inflow of Afghan migrants into Quetta. Social networks with the
overwhelming Pashtun population of Quetta provided an easy transition for Afghan migrants
due to ethnic and kinship loyalties. This has increased the Pashto speaking population of the
city and significantly altered its demographics. Tables below present the latest data on the
district wise population of Afghan refugees in year 2014. The total population Afghans in
Baluchistan is 769451. The highest numbers of Afghans reside in Quetta followed by Pishin
and Killa Abdullah.
Figure 4.3: Percentage Distribution of Afghan Population Across District and Camps
29%
Total District Population of

Afghan Refugees
71%
Total Camp Population of

Afghan Refugees
Figure 5.4: District Wise Percentage share of Afghan Population (2014)

District Wise Percentage share of Afghan Population (2014)
59.5
Table 5.9: District Wise Population of Afghan Refugees 2014
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
74
DISTRICT WISE POPULATION OF AFGHAN REFUGEES 2014

Enumerated/Census
District Wise Percentage
District
Population
Share of Afghan Population
Quetta
324990
59.49
Pishin
76997
14.09
Killa Abdullah
21657
3.96
Chaman
30700
5.62
Loralai
26088
4.78
Bolan
137
0.03
Kalat
3109
0.57
Kharan
342
0.06
Khuzdar
4339
0.79
mastung
4563
0.84
Lasbella
415
0.08
Noshki
4883
0.89
Sibi
3543
0.65
Panjgur
200
0.04
Ziarat
1675
0.31
KillaSaifullah
31749
5.81
Chaghai
0.00
Zhob
10894
1.99
14.1
4.0 5.6 4.8 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.3 5.8 0.0 2.0
Table 9 and figure 3 and 4 are based on the information provided by the office of UNCHR,
Quetta
Rising violence
The security landscape in Baluchistan is extremely complex with the presence of assortment of
insurgents, religious extremists and sectarian groups. A series of unprecedented attack on the
Hazara community resulted in sit-ins my affected families and the eventual dismissal of the
provincial government in January 2013. Since 2008, 1875 terrorist attacks have occurred, and
more than 1997 incidents of target killings and sectarian attacks have taken place resulting in
the death of 1894 people and injuring 3266 persons. The issue of missing persons is also
escalating and increasing tension. The government has responded by increasing the law and
order expenditure by 40% in the last three years to deal with the complex security situation.
Rising incidents of violence in Baluchistan and particularly in Quetta have forced many to flee
from insecure areas to safer abodes. Increased violence is one of the primary reasons for
outmigration from the province. Baluchistan has been a victim of violence with various factors
contributing to it.
75
Table 5.10: Target / Sectarian Killings 2007-2012
Table 5.12: Total Lives Lost in Various Acts of Violence (2003 to 2009)
Total Live s Lost in Various Acts of Violence
Target/ Sectarian Killings 2007-2012

Target
Police
FC
Settlers
Incidents
341
426
404
Total
Killed
273
301
309
Sectarians
Others
Total
145
681
1997
419
592
1894
Injured
413
817
392
484
1215
3321
Source: Home Department, Government of Baluchistan 2007-2012

The security situation has worsened continually since it escalated in 2006. In the last five years,
more than 1997 incidents of target killings/sectarian attacks have taken place killing more than
1894 people and injuring around 3266. In this period many terrorist attacks have occurred
including many rocket attacks.
Shia
2003
68
69
2004
48
11
61
2005
Non Official Civilians

Migrants from
elsewhere in
Pakistan
Total
Ethnic /
Sectarian origin
unknown
2006
14
14
32
2007
38
10
50
2008
22
12
16
52
Jul-09
15
20
44
Total
92
153
13
59
315
Source: Gazdar's compilation based on SATP data timelines from 2003 to July 2009;
Gazdar et al. 2013.
Table 5.11: Total Incidents in Baluchistan from 2011 to 2013
Incidents
2011
2012
2013
Fatalities (number of deaths)

Suicide attacks (number of deaths)
Killings (3 or more fatalities)
711
4 (60)
-
954
3(30)
70 (213)
960
9 (233)
63 (433)
Source: Derived from South Asian Terrorism portal, Baluchistan assessment, 2014
Table shows the number of fatalities due to violence related incidents since 2004, where some
have been caused by Baloch separatists, some by extremist organizations such as the TTP and
LeJ, and others are unattributed, which can be understood as ' the case of missing persons'.
According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, the unattributed killings are believed to be
carried out by state agencies and their proxies. Table 13 shows that even though incidents of
mass killings are decreasing, the fatalities are increasing.
Similarly, the casualties from suicide attacks have also risen, and the total casualties from acts
of violence have increased from 2011-2013 as well. Baluchistan has witnessed increased
insecurity and instability with time. Quetta has been the hotbed of violence in Baluchistan. In
2013 alone, there were 51 bomb blasts. Even though the government denies it, the Afghan
Taliban has a significant presence in Quetta, and is partly responsible for the escalating
violence. The government's appeasement of the extremist terrorist groups such as the TTP, and
its operation against Baloch separatists ensures that in the future violence is still going to be a
significant problem for Baluchistan.
76
Government
officials and
Security
Personal
Year
Table 5.12 compiled by Haris Gazdar disaggregates data on incidences of violence according to
the identity of the victims. Shias have been a constant target of sectarian violence over the last
decade. The fatalities due to the stand alone incident of the 2013-2014 attacks of Hazara Shias
amount to 213 which is larger than the total number of Shias killed from 2003-2009. The
number of government officials killed in attacks has increased manifold over the years. This
indicates that TTP presence in the province has risen in proportion to the increase in attacks.
Additionally, migrants from other parts of Pakistan have also been consistently attacked. The
Government has attempted to respond to the increasingly complicated situation through
beefing- up the security in multiple ways and there have been significant budgetary increases to
provide resources for handling what is proving to be irrepressible law & order situation in the
province. The budgetary outlays have increased by over 30% since 2009-10, from Rs. 5.8
billion to Rs. 13.5 billion in 2012-13 (Draft BCDS 2013-2020)
Environment and Migration

The environmental implications of rural to urban migration for Quetta are also of enormous
significance. The inflow of migrants and rising population has led to overburdening of limited
natural resources in Quetta. The indiscriminate and unplanned use of groundwater resources to
meet water requirements in Baluchistan, in general, and in Quetta, in particular, has led in the
recent years to unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater. This has resulted in a
progressively increasing decline in groundwater levels in Quetta (Khan and Mian 2000).
Baluchistan has no major rivers or canals to recharge the water table, and unrestrained aquifer
pumping has caused Quetta's water table to drop by 3.5 meters annually. According to recent
trends, Quetta's aquifer will likely run dry by 2018 (Brown 2003). In and around the city of
Quetta, the mining of groundwater has reached a point where predictions are being made that
77
the aquifer will be lost in 5-10 years (Mahmood et al. 2010). This phenomenon has had socioeconomic impacts exemplified in the migration of the population from rural to urban areas and
Quetta is bearing the brunt of this migration.
Migration due to Natural Calamities and Disasters: Baluchistan is very prone to natural
disasters and has had its unfortunate share of natural calamities. The disaster management
efforts have lacked in effectiveness, at times due to lack of coordination and sometimes due to
the sheer scale of the disaster. Natural calamities and disasters are recognized as factors
contributing in migration to Quetta. The drought (1997-2002) affected 23 of the 26 districts of
the province, of which seven districts (Khuzdar, Kharan, Chagai, Mastung, Kalat, Loralai and
Killa Saifullah), situated in northern and central Baluchistan and close to Quetta, were reported
to have been worst affected (Oxfam 2001). Additionally the emergence of new housing
societies like Chaman Housing, Jinnah Town, Shahbaz Town, Chiltan Housing, Smungli
Housing and Satellite Town around Quetta city which clearly an indication of rapid
urbanization in Quetta(GOB web, 2014). The earthquake in Baluchistan that occurred in 2013
struck 13 miles northeast of Awaran. It affected more than 300,000 people over a total of six
districts that includes Awaran, Kech, Gwadar, Panjgur, Chaghi and Khuzdar. It has also lead to
displacement and migration into Quetta.
Drought: Droughts occur when there is lack of precipitation for a season or more, which results
in a water shortage that makes the ground uncultivable for crops and affects livelihood.
Droughts slow down economic growth and destroy crops and livestock. Baluchistan has been
struck by drought a number of times, the latest and most destructive occurring from 1997-2002.
2,171,000 people migrated due to the 1997-2002 droughts which affected 23 districts of
Baluchistan (Zahur 2009). 80% of livestock was lost, and the effects of the droughts resulted in
the rise of malnutrition and disease. Since the Quetta was one of the districts where the drought
was not severe (PDRMP, 2006), significant migration took place into Quetta due to the
droughts. The government incurred losses of over Rs. 25 billion due to the drought.
Floods: The summer 2010 floods in Pakistan caused great devastation and displaced 3.4 million
people in the county (Gemenne et al. 2010). Thirteen districts of Baluchistan were affected.
People lived in relief camps during the floods and moved to spontaneous settlements after the
floods. Those who could not return home migrated elsewhere. The government, along with
international agencies, devised and executed a plan for disaster management and recovery. The
International Organization of Migration IMO (Chris Lom, 2010) coordinated relief efforts to
deal with migration due to floods, and for providing shelter to the displaced people. Though the
exact figures are not available, internal migration at an unprecedented scale took place within
the province.
Awaran earthquake 2013: Awaran earthquake caused massive devastation as it resulted in over
800 casualties and over a 100,000 were made homeless. The National Disaster Management
Authority was responsible for coordinating relief efforts which were hampered due to a display
of violence by Baloch separatists. Recovery and rehabilitation from the earthquake is still an
ongoing process. It has also lead to a large stream of internal migration in the province as
100,000 individuals were left homeless.
Social Factors and Urban Facilities

Education: It is important to recognize and explore the social reasons that lead to internal
78
migration. Migration for better education opportunities is an important component of total

internal migration in Pakistan. Labor Force Survey finds that in Pakistan, education attributed
for 1% of total migration in the country. Education may affect not only the decision to migrate
but also the destination through two channels, firstly through increasing expected earnings and
secondly through increasing the probability of finding a job (Memon, 2005). The standard
literature on migration assumes education as reducing the costs of migration and proposes a
straightforward link between years of education and propensity to migrate. The breakdown of
education data below attempts to understand the role these two factors play in internal
migration in Baluchistan.
Education Statistics (ASER 2013), show that enrolment rates of school going aged children is
much higher in urban Quetta compared to the rural districts of Baluchistan. In rural
Baluchistan, 66.6% children were enrolled in school, whereas 33.8% were either never
enrolled, or dropped out due to various reasons. However in Quetta 85% children are enrolled
in school. The number of students attending private schools (37.8%) in Quetta is much higher
than number of children in private schools in rural Baluchistan (4%). Private schools are
providing a higher quality of education as well as better services and facilities to students
(ASER, 2013).
(ASER, 2014) finds that there is a marked difference between education in rural and urban
areas. Urban areas have greater enrolment and higher learning levels (both for children who are
enrolled and out-of-school) as compared to rural areas. Private schools are the dominant source
of education in urban areas, and students demonstrate better performance than those enrolled in
government schools in rural areas. Furthermore the facilities available are better in urban
schools (such as toilets, boundary walls, water etc). The difference in education systems is one
of the reasons of increased migration into Quetta from rural Baluchistan. The standard of
education is better in urban areas which is an important determinant of rural to urban migration.
Water and Sanitation: It is estimated that 74.7% of urban households are using improved
sources of drinking water and improved sanitation facilities, as compared to 43.1% of rural
households. 90.7% of the urban population of Baluchistan has access to safe drinking water, as
compared to the 68.7% of the rural population. 81.5% of the urban population is using
improved sanitation facilities (proper flush systems and ventilated pit latrines) as opposed to
55.4% of the rural population. The availability of proper water and sanitation systems reduce
the risk of disease, and contribute to a higher standard of living. Since urban areas have better
access to improved water and sanitation systems, the risk of disease is lower, (Baluchistan
Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2010- Final Report)
Reproductive Health RH and Healthcare of women: Provision of relatively better healthcare
facilities in Quetta is an important reason for in-migration. In urban areas, 49.4% of women
delivered their babies in an institution. However, in rural areas, only 16.2% of women gave
birth in an institution. In urban areas, nearly half of the women give birth in an institution, be it
public or private. The facilities, sanitation and help available in institutions make for a safer
delivery as opposed to the alternative which is delivering the child at home with the help of a
midwife. Possible causes for the low statistic for rural women could be the lack of availability
of institutions, distance to institutions, attitudes of family members about giving birth outside
the house etc. These factors are mitigated in urban areas, which results in more women
delivering in institutions with proper medical and pre and post-natal facilities available.
79
(Baluchistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2010- Final Report)

The stark differences between the state of health and education in rural and urban areas clearly
indicate why there is increasing migration into Baluchistan's urban areas. The literate and those
who acquire education aspire to move from rural to urban centers of Baluchistan with the
expectation of improving job prospects. Similarly, relatively better healthcare and hygienic
living conditions also push migration from rural to urban areas.
Gender and Migration

The change in the gender composition of migrants has varied simultaneously with the increase
in migration over time. In her paper, (Hamid, 2010) uses micro level household data from Labor
Force Surveys from 1996-2006 to assess the sex ratios in rural to urban and family migration.
Labor force survey data from years 1996-2006 shows that an increasing number of females
migrating from rural to urban areas. Female migration in the intra provincial context of
Baluchistan and across the provinces reveals that rural to urban migration is predominant
feature tied to marriage. If female migration due to marriage is excluded, then female migration
is quite low as compared to males. 40% females migrated due to marriage, which shows that the
number of women migrating on their own in pursuit of employment and education is still low,
albeit greater than before. Most women migrate accompanying their spouse after marriage.
Furthermore the long-distance movement of females has also increased over time.
The gender gap in migrants declined from 1996-1997 to 2005-2006 from 3.5% to 2.5%, but
widened again in 2006-2007. Over time there has been an increase in rural to urban migration
and decline in urban to urban migration. Urban to urban migration was the most dominant form
of migration in the past, but now rural-urban migration is escalating. Female domination is
greater in short term (1-9 years duration of residence), and less in long term (over 9 years).
Female domination has increased in rural to urban migration, as data suggests i.e. there are
more female migrants than male migrants. Apart from the rising proportion of females in rural
to urban migration, family migration to cities has also risen. This change can be primarily
attributed to the changes in the rural economy including decline in share of crops and
landholdings etc.
Arif and Hamid (2009) study the role of migration in improving the quality of life, assessing it
by five indicators; female labor force participation, income differentials of working migrants
before and after migration, household consumption expenditures of Migrants compared with
those of non-migrants, infant mortality, and child malnutrition. They find that there is a rising
share of women in rural to urban migration and women have a significant contribution in
improving the quality of life. They also find that urban migration has made a difference in the
lives of women and their families and that woman are economically more active. They argue
that limited attention has been paid to the presence of women in the migration stock and their
contribution in household well-being, although approximately half of the migrant population
consists of females. Data on the main reasons for migration by the direction of move indicates
that more than 70% of male migrants from rural to urban areas are economic migrants.
Although the corresponding percentage for female is only 17, it is a substantial proportion in
the context of prevailing cultural values in the country. In many poor migrant households
women are the principal wage earners. Thus women's participation in the economy is on the rise
as 17% of women migrating from rural to urban areas are economic migrants. Many female
migrants work as domestic workers on very low wages and live in very poor conditions in
80
slums. However their living conditions overall and quality of life is better than in the rural areas
where they have migrated from.
Arif and Hamid (2009) find that migrant women have better job opportunities, communication
and health facilities, and if their children are enrolled in schools, the quality of education is
much better in than village. Moreover they feel economically empowered. There is no
restriction on their mobility, and they have decision making power. Hamid (2010) suggests that
there are insufficient resources to cater to the increasing influx of female migrants into the cities
of Pakistan. A well-thought out strategy needs to be devised to improve the quality of life for
these migrants. Improvements in health, education and employment opportunities are some of
his recommendations. The Planning and Development department of the Government of
Baluchistan has come up with a strategy 2013-2020 for development and improved resources,
as well as empowering the population. The government is focusing on social programs such as
increased female school enrolment; stipend based skill development, increased access to
microcredit and improved health facilities for women and children. These steps are all to keep
up with the increasing demand and limited resources that have resulted from the migration
influx into urban areas. These gender specific initiatives aim to improve the lives of females,
who especially in Baluchistan, are underrepresented and need empowerment. Specific
programs include training programs for women to be nurses and midwives so they can directly
contribute to the health sector. A women-focused microfinance initiative, which would
encourage crafts and other means of livelihood, is also to be set in motion, in a province where
the use of microfinance is extremely low compared to the rest of the country. Finally, the
government also plans to establish a microfinance bank in order to provide women with better
access to financial services. Therefore, the government of Baluchistan is actively working to
develop and implement programs that empower the female resident and migrant population of
its urban areas.
Consequences: Implications and Repercussions of Internal and Afghan

Migration
Migration has significantly impacted the ethnic composition, social rubric and urban layout of
Quetta. Quetta is a city that has consistently been absorbing migrants with different ethnic
backgrounds, therefore having a diverse population. Despite its unique position as the centre of
two wars, Quetta has witnessed relative peace since the two major ethnic groups that make up
the demographic (Pashtuns and Baloch's) do not live in the same space. However, violence
against other minority communities such as the Hazara and the Shias is prevalent and there have
been an increased number of targeted attacks on these communities since 2012 (Brown et al.). It
is worth mentioning and merits attention that Baloch have been migrating from rural areas to
Quetta city in substantial numbers, thus internal migration is significant, yet, when compared to
the size and scale of Afghan migrants, it remains marginal
There are numerous social, economic and political implications and consequences of rising
internal migration. The large number of extra-provincial migrants who might overwhelm the
existing fragile ethnic balances in the province can lead to disenfranchisement of indigenous
groups. The influx of Afghan migrants has perpetuated a sentiment of discontent amongst the
Baloch residents of Quetta as they see it as an attempt to outnumber them. This is manifested in
the increased violence in Quetta over the years including inter-tribe violence as well as violence
especially targeted against specific ethnic groups such as the Hazaras. The Sunni and Pashtun
81
majority town of Quetta has a very significant Taliban presence making the Shiite minority of
Hazaras vulnerable and easy target. The 50,000 Hazaras in Quetta are in a vulnerable and
fragile situation as the State has failed to protect them. In lieu of their deteriorating condition,
some are using human-smugglers to get out of the country (Khaled and Ahmed, 2014).
Similarly, Memon (2005) also discusses the marginalization of the native population as a result
of migration. He argues that public sector employees are given preferential access to resources.
Unequal resource allocation conflicts with the natives' economic and social interests thereby
resulting in resentment and ethnicity-based politics. Repercussions of migration on the
environment, urban infrastructure and governance and security have been discussed in the
earlier sections above.
Policy Choices and Recommendations

Institutional Management:
1. Key players and institutions: Migration and urbanization puts enormous pressure on the
institutions of governance. Has the federal and provincial governments developed policy
choices to manage the challenges that these twin issues create? There is a growing evidence and
global trend that cities are better managed and offer improved delivery of services if local
governments are empowered and community participation is encouraged at the local level. The
elected government of Malik Baluch, as the Chief Minister of Baluchistan has been in power
for over a year, yet it has made little progress in improving the governance of the province or
Quetta city. Although Baluchistan is the only province of the country where local body's
elections have been held but little effort has been made to build the capacity of local
government. Baluchistan Local Government Act 2013 has revived the Commission rate
system, thus in Quetta, the local government system is premised on a city district which is
further broken down into union councils. The city district, for instance, is responsible for
providing basic amenities and social services to irregular settlements (katchi abadis) that have
emerged as result of increased urbanization (Sanitation and hygiene study, 2008).
The Provincial Disaster Management Authority in Baluchistan is the primary authority
responsible for dealing with the aftermath of natural calamities in the province. According to
the Provincial Disaster Risk Management Plan for Baluchistan 2006, the approach employed to
manage the repercussions of natural disasters is by working with institutions at the local,
provincial and national level. The Urban Planning and Development department of the
Government of Baluchistan and the Quetta Development Authority are responsible for
combating the results of urbanization and congestion, as per their mission statement. They are
responsible for roads, housing and water and sanitation.
2. 18th Amendment paradigm shift in governance; challenges and opportunities: Fiscal
decentralization has led to increased economic opportunity and social sector development.
Mahmud et al. find that migration, especially rural-urban is more dependent upon economic
incentives rather than on social sector development. Migrants are willing to compromise on the
quality of public services for better economic opportunities. As a result of the 18th amendment
and fiscal decentralization, the finances and resources devolved to the provinces have mostly
gone to the provincial capitals. Thus the provincial capitals are well-equipped and in a better
position to rehabilitate incoming migrants compared to other districts. Theoretically, following
the 18th amendment, Quetta has greater capacity to deal with the problems associated with
82
rising migration and urbanization.

The devolution of power is aimed towards an improved ability and capacity to address the
problems and needs of the impoverished masses. However sufficient functions and powers
have not been devolved to the local governments but it authorizes the local councils to
constitute panels to facilitate out of court resolution of disputes (Shafqat 2014). According to
Act, Provincial Finance Commission will be established and headed by the Provincial Minister
and all local councils will receive formula based fiscal transfers from the Provincial Finance
Commission Award (PCFA). The LG Act provides for the establishment of the Local
Government Commission headed by the provincial minister for Local Government and
Provincial Government can suspend the heads of the Local Government institutions. The LG
Act in its current forms provides limited autonomy to the local councils in terms of fiscal
management and control over service delivery, revenue, and tax and police departments. For
local elections to be meaningful, provincial government need to ensure that newly elected local
councils have sufficient resources and authority to address service delivery and development
challenge in local communities. This will require local government to recalibrate their
approach towards the third tier of the Government. At present their instincts seem to be
Centralize for the purpose of political expediency, rather than acting in the true spirit of the
18th amendment and empowering local government structure. This demands devising policies
and strengthening and streamlining institutions of urban governance along with focusing on the
cross cutting themes of incorporating usage of technology, improving quality and content of
education, health and sanitation services, inclusive planning for housing and protection of
environment. In short, following the spirit of 18th Constitutional Amendment, development
programs that are people centric and ensure their participation and ownership; and governance
and policy choices that guarantee citizen security, delivers justice and protects civil liberties.
Co-ordination among Departments: Thus after the 18th amendment, Quetta's status as
provincial capital theoretically ensures that it has the resources and finances for better urban
governance and management. However, in reality there exist impediments and pullbacks in the
process of devolution, its implementation and the eventual empowerment of local
governments. This does not allow the appropriate institutional environment to prevail and
hinders the effective management of the consequences of rising urbanization and migration.
Therefore, it would be worthwhile to improve coordination among P&D Baluchistan and
Quetta Development Authority (QDA) and on the other hand with the Quetta Cantonment
Board. This would imply improving coordination among Local Government, Home, P&D and
Finance Departments. Although government officials invariably claim that procedures are in
place, yet in reality it remains ineffective and a number of overlapping functions need to be
streamlined.
Re-engineering Social Sector: This demands re-engineering in social sectors, like health,
population, education and social services. The provincial governments remain reluctant to
reform and re-design these departments, therefore, civil society, business groups, trader
merchants, media, social activists and academia will need to play more active role in raising
citizen's voice and protecting their rights. Internal migration puts pressure on health
department, which demands building the capacity of health officials for delivery of services. It
also implies carefully devising policies and interventions for preventive and curative diseases.
Migrants invariably remain vulnerable to preventive diseases because either basic health
83
facilities are not available or they lack awareness on how to take precautionary measures.
Awareness campaigns on hygienic conditions, garbage disposal, sanitation and cleanliness
drives could reduce the chances of spread of communicable diseases. Similarly migrant's
families from rural areas, particularly women need support and assistance in child birth, prenatal and post natal care, trained midwifes and lady health workers are time tested
interventions but their availability and skills remain a challenge.
Migrant workers and their families also put pressure on the educational institutions of the urban
centers. This demands that the community and city government must devise policies and find
financial support to help the new comers to the city. With the introduction of 18th Amendment,
education is a basic right for all citizens. However, to convert this right into a reality,
community, state and philanthropists need to band together to build capacity of the elementary
and high schools. Instead of depending on city government's initiatives, the community could
try voluntary methods of voluntary help on the matter and focus on vocational and basic
education. It may sound idealistic but out of box approaches are needed to reduce reliance on
public sector.
Building Partnership among PDMA, Local Government and Migrant Community: It is
important to explore the reasons of migration inflows as well as their economic, political social
and environmental repercussions on Quetta city. The city is a financial and business hub with
lucrative economic opportunities, robust institutions and access to quality public and social
services. It is an urban space that fosters intellectual, professional and commercial activities. It
has functional health and education institutions and most importantly, provides a central space
for interaction of the various diverse groups that make up its demography. A deeper
understanding of migration, its sources and its multi-dimensional consequences will aid in
formulating sustainable policy to improve and enhance urban governance, economic
development and security situation. This implies having a careful look at P&D, Population,
Health and Local Government departments and finding ways to improve coordination for an
effective and judicious process to manage internal migration. In that spirit it would be equally
important to improve the institutional capacity and human resource quality of Provincial
Disaster management Authority(PDMA),simultaneously built its linkages with local
government for effective and urgent support from the community, particularly in the high
risk(earth quack) areas of the province.
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Internal Migration and Urbanization:

MIGRATION RESEARCH GROUP

The State of Internal Migration, Urbanization;

Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... iii

Table 3.4: Urban localities by Population size 1998 in KPK

State of Internal Migration

forced inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration of effected populations.

There is a nationwide trend of rapid urbanization due to various factors including

migration, natural increase, and area annexation/reclassification.

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Total Life-time Migrants 7.755

Source: Karim and Nasar (2004); Figures in parentheses are percentages.

Source: Memon (2005)

Key Issues and Challenges

i) Inadequate Data and its Limitations

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

ii) Forced Migration Issues

iii) Rising Rural to Urban Migration

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

iv) Gendered - Migration related Issues

v) Urban Infrastructure and Housing Problems

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

challenges of housing and land development schemes.

vi) Emergence of Squatter Settlements

vii) Research Gaps and Policy Issues

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Internal Migration, Urbanization and Development Linkages

As the migration process is closely related with poverty, urbanization and

Reason for Migration

Source: Khan and Shahnaz (2000) and Memon

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

CHAPTER ONE: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

The State of Internal Migration,

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

The Situation in Punjab

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

Migration and Urbanization in Punjab

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

Emerging Issues and Concerns

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

Current/future Trends and Flows

2000-01 PSES 1996-97LFS

1998-99 PIHS 1979 PLM*

Rural to Urban Rural to Rural

Urban to Urban Urban to Rural

Source: Hamid, 2010 LFS data for the years (1996-2006).

Source: Mahmud, Musaddiq and Said, 2010

CHAPTER TWO: THE CASE OF PUNJAB

The State of Internal Migration,

CHAPTER THREE: TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES IN PROVINCE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

The Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

CHAPTER THREE: TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES IN PROVINCE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

CHAPTER THREE: TRENDS AND CONSEQUENCES IN PROVINCE OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Number of Urban Localities by Size

Source: Bureau of KPK Statistics, 1998

Source: Pakistan Provincial Census Report, Government of KPK, 1998

Less than 20,000

Chitral; Dir; Timergara;

Table 3.4: Urban Localities by Population size 1998 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Internal Migration & Urbanization-Challenges in Population and Development in Pakistan by Migration Research Group TRUST November 2015

Internal Migration & Urbanization-Challenges in Population and Development in Pakistan by Migration Research Group TRUST November 2015