SAFE & UNSAFE CITIES

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM EST - AUGUST 16, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,213 Canadians by Smart IVR from August 3-4, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were
surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.52%, 19 times out of 20. For additional Margins of Error please see A6.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

DESPITE CRIME STATS, CANADIANS SAY WINNIPEG IS MOST UNSAFE CITY

August 16, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll of 4,231 Canadians has found some
surprising results about which cities Canadians consider safe and unsafe. Among 15 major cities that were
surveyed Ottawa is seen as the safest city while Winnipeg is seen as the most dangerous - though crime
statistics recently released by Stats Canada show Saskatoon has the highest crime rate in the country. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.52%, 19 times out of 20.
Summer headlines are often dominated by crime like no other season. Gun related fatalities in Toronto
have more than doubled since last year, in Saskatoon, a series of stabbings has continued to make
headlines, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. This year, those stories are competing with
the Olympics, and seemingly endless US Presidential election coverage. As we enter the last few weeks of
summer, we take a look at how Canadians perceive crime and safety, both their own, and those of their
neighbours across Canada.
Ottawa is Canada's safest city, according to the perceptions of Canadians with 72% saying it was either
safe of very safe, compared to just 16% who said it was unsafe. At the other end of the spectrum, Winnipeg
is perceived to be Canada's unsafest city with just 35% indicating it was safe or very safe, compared with
56% who said it was unsafe. Males and females, young and old, all ranked the safest and unsafest cities in
the same way at the top and bottom of the 15 cities they were asked about.
Charlottetown, Moncton, St John's and Quebec City rounded out the top ve among the "safest" with
Toronto, Montreal, Saskatoon and Edmonton rounding out the bottom 5 of those considered unsafest. Only
Toronto joined Winnipeg with a negative score with 46% saying it was safe, compared to 47% saying it was
unsafe. All other cities had at least a plurality of Canadians considering them safe cities, including a majority
in 11 of 15 cities.
Perceptions compared to Statistics Canada's Crime Severity Index yields some interesting comparisons.
Toronto for example, ranks 14th out of 15 in terms of perceived safety, but ranks second behind just Quebec
City and narrowly ahead of Ottawa which topped the rank of safest cities as perceived by Canadians.
Winnipeg, which is ranked at the bottom by Canadians has a crime severity index lower than Vancouver,
Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon.
The results paint an interesting portrait of how we see each other, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

NATIONAL RANKING

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

72%

16%

12%

56%

Charlottetown

65%

18%

17%

47%

Moncton

64%

25%

11%

39%

St. John's

58%

20%

22%

38%

Qubec City

59%

22%

19%

37%

Regina

61%

30%

9%

31%

Halifax

53%

28%

19%

25%

Victoria

58%

33%

9%

25%

Vancouver

52%

36%

12%

16%

Calgary

54%

38%

8%

16%

10

Edmonton

52%

41%

7%

11%

11

Saskatoon

45%

40%

15%

5%

12

Montral

45%

44%

11%

1%

13

Toronto

46%

47%

7%

-1%

14

Winnipeg

35%

56%

9%

-21%

15

Net Score: (Very Safe + Somewhat Safe) - (Somewhat Safe + Very Unsafe)

A4

STATISTICS CANADA CRIME DATA

BY CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA (CMA)

City

CSI***

Toronto

Crime Rate 2015

Change from 2014

45.7

2,892

2%

41.8

2,959

0s**

Ottawa

46.5

3,329

-2%

Montral

59.1

3,572

-4%

P.E.I*

49.7

4,141

-12%

Halifax

62.8

4,819

-9%

Calgary

78.3

5,279

25%

Winnipeg

87.2

5,738

6%

St. John's

74.1

5,885

3%

Victoria

72.6

6,059

10%

Moncton

78.5

6,771

21%

Vancouver

96.2

7,407

1%

Edmonton

101.6

7,625

12%

Regina

107.6

8,146

3%

Saskatoon

112.5

8,427

2%

Qubec City

* In lieu of Charlottetown, which is not tracked by Statistics Canada, we have substituted Prince Edward Island
** value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that was
rounded
*** Statistics Canada Crime Severity Index

A5

SAMPLE SIZES & MARGINS OF ERROR

Demographic

Sample Size

MoE(%)*

National

4231

1.52

Male

2067

2.15

Female

2164

2.11

18-34

467

4.53

35-49

967

3.17

50-64

1375

2.64

65+

1422

2.6

Atlantic

399

4.91

Quebec

904

3.26

Ontario

967

3.15

Manitoba

430

4.73

Saskatchewan

422

4.77

Alberta

414

4.82

British Columbia

695

3.72

*plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. ie. National Margin of Error: +/- 1.52%, 19 times out of 20

A6

AMONG CANADIAN FEMALES:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

70%

17%

13%

54%

Charlottetown

64%

18%

18%

45%

Moncton

64%

26%

10%

38%

St. John's

57%

20%

22%

37%

Qubec City

58%

23%

19%

36%

Regina

61%

30%

9%

30%

Victoria

58%

32%

10%

27%

Halifax

51%

29%

20%

22%

Vancouver

52%

35%

13%

17%

Calgary

51%

41%

9%

10%

10

Edmonton

51%

43%

6%

8%

11

Montral

46%

44%

10%

3%

12

Saskatoon

44%

42%

14%

2%

13

Toronto

42%

51%

7%

-9%

14

Winnipeg

35%

56%

9%

-21%

15

A7

AMONG CANADIAN MALES:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

72%

16%

12%

56%

Charlottetown

65%

18%

17%

47%

Moncton

64%

25%

11%

39%

St. John's

58%

20%

22%

38%

Qubec City

59%

22%

19%

37%

Regina

61%

30%

9%

31%

Halifax

53%

28%

19%

25%

Victoria

58%

33%

9%

25%

Calgary

52%

36%

12%

16%

Vancouver

54%

38%

8%

16%

10

Edmonton

52%

41%

7%

11%

11

Saskatoon

45%

40%

15%

5%

12

Toronto

45%

44%

11%

1%

13

Montral

46%

47%

7%

-1%

14

Winnipeg

35%

56%

9%

-21%

15

A8

AMONG THOSE 18-34:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

74%

13%

13%

60%

Charlottetown

70%

15%

15%

54%

Moncton

67%

22%

11%

44%

Qubec City

61%

20%

19%

41%

St. John's

59%

20%

21%

39%

Regina

63%

29%

8%

34%

Victoria

64%

30%

6%

33%

Vancouver

61%

31%

8%

30%

Halifax

54%

27%

19%

27%

Edmonton

56%

38%

6%

18%

10

Calgary

55%

38%

7%

17%

11

Saskatoon

48%

38%

13%

10%

12

Toronto

48%

45%

7%

3%

13

Montral

44%

44%

11%

0%

14

Winnipeg

32%

59%

9%

-28%

15

A9

AMONG THOSE 35-49:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

73%

16%

11%

57%

Charlottetown

66%

16%

18%

50%

Moncton

66%

25%

10%

41%

St. John's

56%

21%

22%

35%

Qubec City

59%

24%

17%

35%

Regina

63%

30%

8%

33%

Halifax

54%

31%

15%

23%

Victoria

56%

34%

9%

22%

Calgary

52%

39%

9%

13%

Montral

48%

41%

11%

7%

10

Saskatoon

46%

39%

15%

7%

11

Vancouver

46%

42%

12%

3%

12

Edmonton

47%

45%

8%

1%

13

Toronto

46%

47%

7%

-2%

14

Winnipeg

36%

56%

8%

-20%

15

A10

AMONG THOSE 50-64:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

74%

15%

12%

59%

Charlottetown

66%

18%

16%

48%

Moncton

68%

22%

10%

46%

St. John's

61%

17%

23%

44%

Qubec City

62%

20%

18%

42%

Halifax

56%

24%

20%

31%

Regina

61%

30%

9%

30%

Victoria

57%

33%

10%

25%

Calgary

54%

36%

9%

18%

Vancouver

49%

36%

14%

13%

10

Montral

51%

39%

10%

12%

11

Edmonton

52%

42%

7%

10%

12

Saskatoon

46%

39%

15%

7%

13

Toronto

45%

49%

6%

-4%

14

Winnipeg

38%

53%

9%

-15%

15

A11

AMONG THOSE 65+:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

66%

21%

12%

45%

St. John's

55%

22%

23%

33%

Charlottetown

56%

24%

20%

31%

Qubec City

53%

25%

22%

28%

Regina

56%

32%

12%

25%

Moncton

53%

33%

15%

20%

Victoria

53%

35%

11%

18%

Vancouver

51%

34%

15%

17%

Calgary

54%

39%

7%

16%

Halifax

47%

31%

22%

15%

10

Edmonton

54%

39%

7%

15%

11

Toronto

45%

48%

8%

-3%

12

Saskatoon

38%

44%

18%

-7%

13

Montral

34%

54%

11%

-20%

14

Winnipeg

34%

55%

11%

-21%

15

A12

AMONG ATLANTIC CANADIANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Charlottetown

78%

19%

3%

58%

Ottawa

71%

14%

15%

57%

Moncton

62%

25%

13%

37%

Regina

63%

27%

9%

36%

Victoria

60%

32%

8%

28%

Qubec City

57%

31%

12%

27%

Saskatoon

54%

38%

8%

15%

Vancouver

50%

42%

8%

8%

Halifax

49%

44%

8%

5%

St. John's

48%

46%

6%

3%

10

Edmonton

46%

44%

10%

3%

11

Montral

46%

44%

9%

2%

12

Calgary

42%

46%

13%

-4%

13

Toronto

41%

52%

7%

-10%

14

Winnipeg

34%

59%

7%

-25%

15

A13

AMONG QUBECERS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Qubec City

78%

11%

11%

67%

Ottawa

68%

15%

17%

53%

Charlottetown

65%

14%

22%

51%

Moncton

67%

22%

11%

45%

Victoria

67%

24%

9%

44%

Regina

67%

24%

9%

43%

Vancouver

61%

21%

18%

39%

St. John's

54%

19%

26%

35%

Montral

58%

33%

9%

25%

Saskatoon

52%

29%

20%

23%

10

Halifax

50%

27%

23%

23%

11

Calgary

48%

44%

8%

4%

12

Edmonton

46%

48%

7%

-2%

13

Winnipeg

41%

50%

8%

-9%

14

Toronto

33%

59%

8%

-26%

15

A14

AMONG ONTARIANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

76%

17%

7%

59%

Charlottetown

66%

14%

19%

52%

St. John's

60%

17%

23%

42%

Moncton

67%

24%

9%

42%

Halifax

60%

23%

18%

37%

Regina

63%

27%

10%

36%

Qubec City

57%

22%

21%

35%

Calgary

56%

36%

8%

20%

Victoria

55%

36%

9%

19%

Toronto

55%

41%

4%

14%

10

Edmonton

50%

43%

7%

8%

11

Vancouver

47%

43%

11%

4%

12

Saskatoon

40%

42%

18%

-2%

13

Montral

39%

53%

8%

-14%

14

Winnipeg

36%

54%

10%

-18%

15

A15

AMONG MANITOBANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Charlottetown

63%

20%

18%

43%

Ottawa

62%

19%

19%

42%

Qubec City

54%

22%

24%

32%

Moncton

55%

26%

18%

29%

Victoria

57%

28%

15%

29%

Edmonton

53%

35%

13%

18%

St. John's

48%

34%

19%

14%

Vancouver

45%

36%

19%

9%

Montral

44%

35%

21%

9%

Calgary

48%

38%

14%

9%

10

Regina

45%

38%

16%

7%

11

Winnipeg

49%

42%

9%

7%

12

Toronto

45%

41%

14%

4%

13

Halifax

41%

39%

20%

2%

14

Saskatoon

42%

44%

14%

-2%

15

A16

AMONG SASKATCHEWANIANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

70%

18%

13%

53%

Edmonton

61%

26%

13%

35%

Calgary

59%

26%

16%

33%

Vancouver

59%

28%

13%

31%

Moncton

54%

24%

22%

29%

St. John's

52%

28%

21%

24%

Victoria

53%

34%

14%

19%

Qubec City

44%

27%

29%

17%

Charlottetown

45%

34%

21%

11%

Halifax

44%

34%

22%

11%

10

Regina

47%

41%

13%

6%

11

Saskatoon

47%

43%

11%

4%

12

Winnipeg

42%

39%

19%

3%

13

Montral

34%

39%

27%

-6%

14

Toronto

38%

47%

16%

-9%

15

A17

AMONG ALBERTANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

St. John's

70%

13%

17%

57%

Ottawa

69%

17%

14%

52%

Moncton

64%

25%

11%

39%

Victoria

62%

29%

9%

32%

Vancouver

62%

30%

8%

32%

Charlottetown

60%

28%

12%

32%

Calgary

62%

34%

4%

29%

Edmonton

60%

35%

5%

25%

Qubec City

48%

29%

23%

20%

Halifax

50%

33%

17%

16%

10

Regina

55%

39%

6%

16%

11

Montral

44%

41%

15%

3%

12

Saskatoon

44%

47%

9%

-3%

13

Toronto

44%

48%

8%

-4%

14

Winnipeg

26%

68%

5%

-42%

15

A18

AMONG BRITISH COLUMBIANS:

City

Safe

Unsafe

Not Sure

Net Score

Rank

Ottawa

73%

14%

12%

59%

Charlottetown

65%

22%

13%

43%

St. John's

59%

17%

24%

43%

Edmonton

61%

33%

6%

28%

Moncton

58%

32%

10%

26%

Halifax

50%

28%

22%

22%

Calgary

58%

37%

5%

21%

Regina

57%

37%

6%

19%

Qubec City

47%

30%

24%

17%

Toronto

49%

42%

9%

6%

10

Victoria

48%

46%

6%

2%

11

Montral

43%

43%

14%

1%

12

Saskatoon

45%

46%

9%

-1%

13

Vancouver

45%

46%

9%

-1%

14

Winnipeg

25%

67%

8%

-43%

15

A19

NATIONAL BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

43%

29%

Charlottetown

43%

22%

Moncton

37%

St. John's

41%

Qubec City

33%

Regina

29%

Halifax

22%

Victoria

47%

Vancouver

41%

Calgary

32%

Edmonton

21%

Saskatoon

23%

Montral

11%

Toronto

15%

Winnipeg

12%

10

11%
9%

27%
11%

26%

11%

11%

22%

10%

40
Somewhat Safe

7%
15%
11%
6% 7%

33%
30

8%

19%

41%

23%

12%

22%

25%

31%

9%

21%

30%

34%

19%

19%

19%

22%

9%

11%

17%

31%

19%
11%

17%

22%

Very Safe

11%

17%
11%

11%

22%

19%

31%

17%

11%

9%

11%

32%

20

9%

14%

17%

5% 12%

23%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

9%
80

Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A20

FEMALE BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

44%

Charlottetown

43%

Moncton

39%

St. John's

41%

Qubec City

32%

Regina

30%

Victoria

48%

Halifax

20%

Vancouver

42%

Calgary

31%

Edmonton

19%

Montral

11%

Saskatoon

21%

Toronto

15%

Winnipeg

11%

10

27%

12%

21%

10%

25%
11%

26%

31%

11%

10%

16%

20%

13%

13%

23%

31%

11%

Very Safe

40
Somewhat Safe

10%
14%
6% 7%

31%
30

6%

20%

45%

23%

9%

24%

23%
23%

10%

20%

18%

19%

35%

9%

13%

18%

32%

20

19%
11%

19%

16%

10%

22%

20%
10%

18%

11%

9%

11%

30%

27%

9%

14%

16%

13%

25%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

9%
80

Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A21

MALE BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

43%

31%

Charlottetown

43%

23%

Moncton

35%

St. John's

41%

Qubec City

34%

Regina

28%

Halifax

24%

Victoria

46%

Calgary

33%

Vancouver

40%

Edmonton

23%

Saskatoon

25%

Toronto

15%

Montral

11%

Winnipeg

13%

10

10%
8%

29%

14%

18%

11%

26%

11%

18%
12%

9%

9%

37%

33%

40
Somewhat Safe

16%

18%

35%
30

8%

6% 7%

27%

Very Safe

11%

20%

29%

35%

8%
7%

20%

19%

21%

18%

19%

18%

30%

9%

9%

16%
12%

19%
11%

25%

24%

12%

22%

18%

31%

23%

16%

11%

9%

10%

34%

20

9%

11%

12%

21%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

9%
90
Not Sure

100

A22

18-34 BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

48%

Charlottetown

41%

Moncton

46%

Qubec City

38%

St. John's

43%

Regina

34%

Victoria

54%

Vancouver

52%

Halifax

23%

Edmonton

30%

Calgary

34%

Saskatoon

27%

Toronto

16%

Montral

12%

Winnipeg

11%

10

26%

10%

28%

8%

21%

16%

11%

12%

8%

9%
31%

21%
10%

20%
16%
10%

17%

21%

21%

34%
30

Very Safe

40

Somewhat Safe

7%

6% 7%

23%

20%

6%

7% 13%

39%

32%

19%

20%

31%

32%

11%

25%
50

6%
8%

20%

19%

22%

8%

11%

15%

16%
26%

11%

19%

19%
10%

15%

10%

9%

28%

20

7%

12%

23%

13%

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

9%
80

Very Unsafe

90

Not Sure

100

A23

35-49 BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

47%

Charlottetown

44%

Moncton

33%

St. John's

38%

Qubec City

32%

Regina

35%

Halifax

26%

Victoria

45%

Calgary

27%

Montral

9%
26%

Vancouver

31%

Edmonton

14%

Toronto

17%

Winnipeg

10%
10

10%

22%

8%

32%
12%

27%
28%

12%

19%
12%

25%

12%

10%

24%

30

Very Safe

40

Somewhat Safe

15%
12%

23%

8%
6% 7%

34%

20

11%

19%

41%

26%

9%
9%

17%

22%

29%

15%

23%

29%

32%

8%

10%

24%

15%

17%
11%

24%
16%

10%

22%

19%

28%

20%

18%
11%

9%

12%

6% 11%

9%

14%

18%

39%

Saskatoon

26%

22%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

8%
90

Not Sure

100

A24

50-64 BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

40%

Charlottetown

41%

Moncton

45%

St. John's

42%

Qubec City

39%

Halifax

23%

Regina

21%

Victoria

47%

Calgary

33%

Vancouver

39%

Montral

10%

Edmonton

19%

Saskatoon

20%

Toronto

13%

32%

Winnipeg

13%

25%

10

33%

10%

25%

10%

23%
10%

23%

15%

39%

10%

9%

21%

9%

20%
10%

22%

17%

41%

9%

20%

14%
15%

20%

26%

31%

8%

40

Somewhat Safe

7%
15%
6% 6%

30%
30

10%

22%

43%

Very Safe

10%

21%

24%
33%

9%

11%

16%

10%

10%

18%

20%
10%

16%

6% 23%

10%

33%

20

8%

12%

18%

12%

24%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

9%
80

Very Unsafe

90

Not Sure

100

A25

65+ BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

35%

St. John's

40%

Charlottetown

48%

Qubec City

20%

Regina

24%

Moncton

19%

Victoria

40%

Vancouver

41%

Calgary

33%

Halifax

14%

Edmonton

20%

Toronto

15%

Saskatoon

18%

Montral

13%

Winnipeg

14%

10

32%

15%

15%

9%
8%

32%

23%

13%

13%

11%

21%

23%

15%

14%
16%

23%

17%

29%

20%
30

40
Somewhat Safe

11%

20%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

8%

18%

25%

35%

Very Safe

7%
8%

27%

21%

7%
22%

40%

20%

11%

21%

18%

30%

15%

12%

17%

34%

12%

13%

23%

10%

33%

22%
14%

19%
13%

20%

12%

17%

34%

20

13%

11%

33%

6% 12%

80

Very Unsafe

11%
90
Not Sure

100

A26

ATLANTIC BREAKDOWN

Charlottetown

56%

Ottawa

37%

Moncton

28%

Regina

27%

Victoria

42%

Qubec City

28%

Saskatoon

23%

Vancouver

27%

Halifax

24%

St. John's

28%

Edmonton

25%

Montral

18%

Calgary

10%

32%

27%

Toronto

10%

32%

42%

Winnipeg
0

21%
34%

7%

34%

12%

36%

10%

31%

25%
20%

12%
11%

40
Somewhat Safe

8%

17%

25%

19%

8%

19%

6%

8%

18%

10%

22%

9%

18%

13%
10%

40%
30

8%

25%

22%

Very Safe

9%

21%

26%

28%

13%

12%

26%

21%

15%

11%

27%

22%

7%

13%

20%

29%

20

7%

16%
18%

6% 27%
10

12%

19%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

7%
7%

90
Not Sure

100

A27

QUEBEC BREAKDOWN

Qubec City

49%

Ottawa

40%

Charlottetown

39%

Moncton

47%

Victoria

59%

Regina

34%

Vancouver

49%

St. John's

41%

Montral

11%

Saskatoon

25%

Halifax

20%

Calgary

27%

Edmonton

17%

Winnipeg

15%

Toronto

21%

10

29%

7%

28%

10%

25%

33%

13%

17%

11%

11%

47%

8%

27%

10%

18%

29%

40

9%

20%

23%
8%
7%

24%

8%

53%

Somewhat Safe

18%

31%

26%

30

9%

27%

16%

Very Safe

9%

26%

8%

17%
21%

11%

14%

21%

30%

11%

7%

10%

19%

20

10%

13%
12%

12%

22%

12%
9%

27%

17%

6% 8%
20%

11%

6% 8%
50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A28

ONTARIO BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

48%

Charlottetown

49%

St. John's

40%

19%

Moncton

40%

27%

Halifax

20%

Regina

28%

Qubec City

30%

Calgary

37%

Victoria

48%

Toronto

15%

Edmonton

12%

Vancouver

41%

Saskatoon

22%

Montral

7%

Winnipeg

10%

28%

12%

17%

6% 8%
9%

12%
35%

11%

10%
7%

40%

9%

18%
9%

14%
19%

8%

10%

21%

25%

8%

27%

9%

9%

38%

38%

18%

25%

6% 17%
18%

30

40
Somewhat Safe

25%
50

18%

22%

28%

Very Safe

11%
10%

31%

25%

7%

25%

32%

32%

20

8%

18%

27%

19%

23%

16%

40%

10

8%

7%

60
Somewhat Unsafe

70

8%
10%

80
Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A29

MANITOBA BREAKDOWN

Charlottetown

44%

Ottawa

31%

Qubec City

19%

Moncton

26%

Victoria

42%

Edmonton

29%

St. John's

30%

Vancouver

27%

Montral

24%

Calgary

29%

Regina

30%

Winnipeg

29%

Toronto

16%

29%

Halifax

16%

24%

Saskatoon

19%

10

19%

12%

30%

11%

36%

8%
29%

13%

18%

20

19%
21%

30

Very Safe

40

16%
9%

16%
21%
16%

50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

14%
20%

27%

Somewhat Safe

14%

25%

25%

23%

19%

16%

18%

18%

13%

25%

22%

20%

15%

18%

14%

15%

18%

24%

16%

19%

18%

16%

12%

20%

24%

22%

18%

18%

18%
19%

14%

10%

24%

8%

14%

13%
15%

8%

70

80

Very Unsafe

14%
90
Not Sure

100

A30

SASKATCHEWAN BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

38%

Edmonton

31%

30%

Calgary

31%

28%

Vancouver

34%

Moncton

26%

St. John's

29%

Victoria

41%

Qubec City

25%

Charlottetown

24%

Halifax

27%

Regina

30%

Saskatoon

27%

Winnipeg

14%

Montral

20%

Toronto

16%

10

33%

12%
14%

12%
19%

18%

20%

20

23%

20%

17%
19%

28%
30

40
Somewhat Safe

13%

19%

23%

Very Safe

22%

24%

28%

21%

19%

18%

60
Somewhat Unsafe

11%
19%

27%
19%

50

14%

29%
14%

14%

17%

21%
14%

18%

20%

13%

22%

14%

20%

9%

21%

22%

9%

14%

16%

10%

15%

23%

13%

13%

18%

28%

14%

12%

13%

25%

6% 13%

70

16%
80

Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A31

ALBERTA BREAKDOWN

St. John's

52%

Ottawa

39%

Moncton

32%

Victoria

42%

Vancouver

45%

Charlottetown

22%

Calgary

38%

Edmonton

34%

Qubec City

26%

Halifax

28%

22%

Regina

28%

27%

Montral

11%

Saskatoon

19%

Toronto
Winnipeg
0

9%

17%
30%

11%
20%

10

14%

13%

18%

17%

13%

19%

23%

28%

17%

28%

33%

23%
25%

11%
19%

37%

10%

30

Very Safe

9%

6% 8%

46%

20

6%

15%

42%

15%

12%
10%

22%
9%

8%

11%

24%

26%

9%

15%

17%
24%

11%

11%

14%

38%

22%

6% 17%

13%

32%

35%

11%

7%

22%
40

Somewhat Safe

50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

90
Not Sure

100

A32

BRITISH COLUMBIA BREAKDOWN

Ottawa

45%

Charlottetown

47%

St. John's

45%

Edmonton

37%

Moncton

26%

32%

Halifax

26%

24%

Calgary

34%

Regina

25%

Qubec City

28%

Toronto

13%

Victoria

33%

Montral

13%

Saskatoon

27%

Vancouver

36%

Winnipeg

10%

10

29%

11%

18%

10%

15%

9%

25%

11%

9%

22%
11%

25%
12%

36%

12%

17%

6% 9%

24%

22%

24%
19%

19%

10%

25%

21%

49%
30

Very Safe

6%
14%

36%
9%

40

50

60

Somewhat Unsafe

70

80

Very Unsafe

9%
9%

18%

Somewhat Safe

6%

24%

36%

31%

6%

10%

26%

32%

20

24%

17%

19%

15%

13%

22%

24%

14%

12%

8%

15%

19%

12%

8%
90

Not Sure

100

A33

SCRIPT

Thinking about the City of <City Name>, <Province> would you say you consider it very
safe, somewhat safe, somewhat unsafe or very unsafe?
[The order of cities was randomized]
St. Johns, Newfoundland
Charlottetown, PEI
Halifax, Nova Scotia
Moncton, New Brunswick
Quebec City, Quebec
Montreal, Quebec
Ottawa, Ontario
Toronto, Ontario
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Regina, Saskatchewan
Calgary, Alberta
Edmonton, Alberta
Vancouver, British Columbia
Victoria, British Columbia

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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