US mobile carrier revenue forecasts to 2015

Covering voice and data revenues,

and drivers to take up

Coda.
Coda Research Consultancy

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 Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

US mobile carrier revenue forecasts to 2015

Steve Smith PhD

Research Director

Coda Research Consultancy

Released 22 March 2010

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England

© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010

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Introduction

Document at a glance:
Type – Forecasts report
Printed page length – 26
Figures – 18
Number of forecasts – 10

Increasingly, mobile handset usage is more about data and less about voice. With mobile internet
users via handsets forecast to rise to 158m in 2015, data revenues are clearly set to climb. At the
same time, however, voice revenues are set to decline.

This 25 page Coda Research Consultancy report provides carrier revenue forecasts to 2015 for voice,
SMS data and non-SMS data, together with drivers to revenue changes.

Subjects covered:

Carrier revenues
Voice revenues
Non-SMS data revenues
SMS data revenues
ARPU
Tiered pricing vs flat rate pricing

Drivers to revenue changes:

Smartphone ownership and shipments
Mobile internet users and traffic
4G roll out
Mobile video
Mobile working
Social networking
Location based services
Applications
VoiP

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Contents and figures
Contents
Methodology ................................................................ 5
The emerging mobile eco-system .................................. 6
Carrier revenues........................................................... 7
Voice revenues, and forecast to 2015 ....................... 7
Data revenues, and forecast to 2015 ........................ 7
ARPU, and forecast to 2015...................................... 9
Flat rate pricing ....................................................... 9
Tiered pricing .......................................................... 9
Drivers and barriers to carrier revenues ........................12
Forecasts and Figures
Forecast 1. Voice vs data revenues, 2009-2015.............. 7
Forecast 2. SMS vs non-SMS data revenues, 2009-
2015 ................................................................... 8
Forecast 3. SMS vs non-SMS data revenue percentage
split, 2009-2015................................................... 8
Forecast 4. Contribution of voice, SMS and non-SMS
revenues to overall revenues, 2009-2015 .............. 8
Forecast 5. Carrier ARPU: Voice vs SMS vs non-SMS
data, 2009-2015 .................................................. 9
Forecast 6. Smartphone subscribers, 2009-2015............13
Forecast 7. Mobile internet users via mobile handsets,
2009-2015..........................................................15
Forecast 8. Handset data traffic per month, 2009-
2015 ..................................................................15
Forecast 9. People accessing social networking.
Smartphones vs feature phones, 2009-2015 .........20
Forecast 10. Mobile internet video users, 2009-2015 .....21
Smartphones ......................................................... 12
Mobile internet users.............................................. 14
Monthly data traffic forecasts to 2015 ..................... 15
4G rollout across carriers........................................ 16
Mobile internet activities......................................... 18
Bibliography ............................................................... 25
About Coda Research Consultancy............................... 26
Figure 1. The emerging mobile ecosystem ..................... 6
Figure 2. Mobile internet user penetration across
smartphone brands ............................................ 14
Figure 3. Typical throughout speeds, comparing 3G
with LTE ............................................................ 16
Figure 4. Sprint WiMax coverage map by city ............... 17
Figure 5. Top sites visited via mobile internet ............... 18
Figure 6. Location based usage among smartphone
owners, by smartphone brand............................. 21
Figure 7. Application usage across operating systems ... 23
Figure 8. Numbers of applications available, by app
store ................................................................. 23
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About Coda Research Consultancy

Employing highly structured data collection and analysis, Coda Research Consultancy specializes in
understanding and forecasting future trends, roles and impacts of new technologies, services and
media upon people, organizations and businesses.

Coda undertakes two types of projects each year: ad-hoc projects for individual research partners in
the UK and overseas, and more widely scoped projects that are available to anyone in the forms of
reports and optional presentations.

Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an acknowledged research specialist with
thirteen years' research and consulting experience around new media and new technologies.

To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:

European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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