Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 1/57
A survey of executives in manufacturing companies found
that 91% of them ranked supply chain management as either
"very important" or "critical" to the success of their
companies.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 2/57
ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS
BPR
SCM
e-B
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 3/57
SCM: a definition
Supply Chain Management is the integration of key business
processes from end user through original suppliers, that
provides products, services and information that add value
for customers and other stakeholders.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 4/57
SCM: another definition
Supply chain management is a set of approaches utilized to efficiently
integrate suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and stores, so that
merchandise is produced and distributed at the right quantities, to the
right locations, at the right time, in order to minimize systemwide costs
while satisfying service level requirements.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 5/57
CHAIN OF SUPPLY
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
customers
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 6/57
The New Differentiators represent the
World Class between the Traditional ones
Traditional World Class
Quality
Quality Responsiveness
Kecepatan (Speed) LEAN
dalam memenuhi Mengeliminasi
perubahan pemborosan di
permintaan dalam proses
Time Cost
Time Cost
Agility
Kegesitan
(ber- Adaptasi)
mencapai Cost
Structure yg
optimum
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 7/57
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT ….. WHY ???
SAMPLE OF VALUE STREAM: A COLA CAN
Mine
Reduction
mill
Smelter
Hot roller
Cold
Can Can
roller
ware- maker
Remelter
house
Recycle
Bottler center
Bottler Tesco
ware- Tesco
ware-
house store
house Home
Source: Lean Thinking, Womack & James
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 8/57
Cola Value Stream Scorecard
Incoming Processing Finished Process Cum. Cum.
Storage Time Storage Rate Days Scrap (%)
Mine 0 20 min 2 weeks 1000 t/hr 319 0
Reduction 2 weeks 30 min 2 weeks 305 0
mill
Smelter 3 months 2 hrs 2 weeks 277 2
Hot rolling 2 weeks 1 min 4 weeks 10 ft/min 173 4
mill
Cold 2 weeks <1 min 4 weeks 2100 131 6
Rolling mill ft/min
Can maker 2 weeks 1 min 4 weeks 2000/min 89 20
Bottler 4 days 1min 5 weeks 1500/min 47 24
Retailer 0 0 3 days - 8 24
RDC
Retail store 0 0 2 days - 5 24
Home 3 days 5 min - - 3 [ 90 ]
storage
months
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 9/57
SAMPLE VALUE STREAM: A CAN OF COLA
EIGHT FIRMS
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 10/57
BEER GAME Time !!!
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 11/57
BEER GAME
A SUPPLY CHAIN SIMULATION
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 12/57
SCM GAME-HISTORY
The Beer Game (or beer distribution game) was
originally invented in the 1960s by Jay W. Forrester
at MIT as a result of his work on system dynamics.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 13/57
The GOLDEN Rules
Be disciplined, but have fun …..
> Create your Supply Chain NAME ….
Used
Order card
Order flow (Administrator)
Order Order Order
Placed/ Incoming Placed/ Incoming Placed/ Incoming Prod.
Outgoing Orders Outgoing Orders Outgoing Orders Request
Customer Prod
Order card Delay2
Current Current Current Current
Inventory Inventory Inventory Inventory Prod
Delay1
Ship Ship Ship Ship Ship Ship
Delay1 Delay2 Delay1 Delay2 Delay1 Delay2
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 15/57
ESTIMATED RETAIL CUSTOMER ORDERS (BY WEEK) SC Cost : $ 3500
TEAM: MANTAP (@ weeks)
40
35
30
O25
R
D
E
R
20
S
15
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
WEEK
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 16/57
INVENTORY OR BACKLOG (BY WEEK) SC Cost: $ 3,500
TEAM: MANTAP (@ weeks)
90
I
N 70
V
E
N 50
T
O
R 30
Y
B 10
A
C
K-10
L
O
G-30
-50
-70
-90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
WEEK
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 17/57
BEER GAME : LESSONS LEARNED
DAMPAK PENYEBABNYA ? APA YANG HARUS
(DLM SUPPLY CHAIN DIPERBAIKI ?
ANDA) ?
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 18/57
THE “BULL-WHIP” EFFECT
Production Manager IN SUPPLY CHAINS
The ordering patterns share a
common recurring theme:
Barilla Barilla
Distributors Wholesalers Retailers
Plant Dist. Centre
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 21/57
CAUSES OF “BULLWHIP” EFFECT
1. Information Distortion (Distorsi
Informasi)
2. Order Batching (Order dalam skala besar)
3. Price Fluctuation (Fluktuasi Harga)
4. Rationing and Shortage Gaming
(Spekulasi)
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 22/57
1. INFORMATION DISTORTION
• Orders dianggap sebagai cerminan customer demand
(permintaan pelanggan)
• Ketergantungan pada Forecasting techniques yang sangat
tinggi dalam memahami / menganalisa customer demand
• Safety stocks yang sangat tergantung pada variasi demand
yang tidak menentu serta order lead-times yang lama
• Kendala dalam melakukan forecast
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 23/57
2. ORDER BATCHING
• Skala ekonomi dalam biaya pemesanan (ordering
cost) dan proses manufaktur skala besar (batching)
• Perencanaan dan pemesanan yang mengacu pada
sistem MRP dan sistem review berkala dalam periode
yang lama
• Skala ekonomi dalam transportasi (tarif truk penuh /
full truck-load rates)
• Sistem order yang “Push” yang mengejar keuntungan
finansial dalam jangka pendek
© Supply Chain Management and e-Business
Panos Kouvelis, 2001
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 24/57
Inventory as Revenue Generator
• Anticipation – antisipasi future demand, seperti seasonality
atau promotional
• Safety Stock (buffer inventory) – buffer diperlukan terkait
issue-issue :
– Quality problems
– Lead time fluctuations
– Equipment problems
• Lot-size inventory – dengan cara menurunkan waktu setup
atau purchasing costs
• Transportation inventory
• Hedge inventory – antisipasi terhadap price changes
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 25/57
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY
Cost
Ordering Cost
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 26/57
"OPTIMIZING" INVENTORIES
LT
Q
ROP
EOQ
SS
(0,0) T
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 27/57
3. PRICE FLUCTUATION
• Discount program (karena order dalam jumlah besar) dan pembelian
di muka (advance purchase)
• Jumlah pembelian melebihi dari yang dikonsumsi (consumption rate)
Bullwhip Effect due to Seasonal Sales of soup
Order Quantity
Retailers’ Sales
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 29/57
CAMPBELL’S EXPERIENCE
For Retailers For Campbell
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 30/57
HOW TO COUNTERACT THE
“BULLWHIP” EFFECT
• Information sharing (Berbagi informasi)
• Break order batches & collaborative planning (Order
dipecah dalam jumlah kecil dan perencanaan bersama-
sama)
• Stabilize prices (Menjamin kestabilan harga)
• Eliminate gaming in shortage situations (Menghindari
situasi yang dapat menyebabkan spekulasi)
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 31/57
USING THE “CAUSES OF BULLWHIP PHENOMENON”
AS A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND SUPPLY CHAIN PRACTICES
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 32/57
INFORMATION SHARING
EXAMPLES OF ENABLERS
Dimensions UPC EDI ERP APS INTERNET
Standardization X X
Communication X X X
Integrated systems X X
Information sharing X X
Decision Support X X
Coordination X X
Restructuring X
UPC = Utiliziation of Personal Computer
x Smaller effect EDI = Electronic data Interchange
X Big effect ERP = Entepreneur Resource Planning
APS = adalah apvance planning and schedule
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 33/57
INFORMATION REGULARY SHARED
WITH PARTNERS
60 56
Percentage 48 47
50
39 38
40
30 25 24
20
10 6
2
0
Order/Replenishment
Promotional Plans
Inventory Status
All
Business Goals
Other
POS Data
Sales Forecast
Product/Design
Information
Plans
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 34/57
OVERVIEW OF LESSONS LEARNED
• “Bullwhip Phenomenon” berlindung di balik kinerja Supply
Chain
• The “bullwhip” effect didorong oleh optimalisasi sektoral
tanpa melihat proses keseluruhan
• Jalan keluar dari masalah “bullwhip” membutuhkan
information sharing, collaborative planning, forecasting
and replenishment practices
© Supply Chain Management and e-Business
Panos Kouvelis, 2001
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 35/57
Objectives of SCM ?
o Balancing Demand and Supply
o Maximize value & lower waste/cost
o Create and sustain competitive advantage (based on the
delivery of basic and value-added services)
o Achieve “win-win”, global optimal not local optimal
o Competition is between supply chains, not single companies
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 36/57
Balancing Demand vs Supply in SCM
DEMAND Historic
Shipments
Market Analysis Statistical
Trend Models Base
Business
Marketing
Events
Major Customer
Events Shipment
Initiatives
Inventory
Line Production
Schedule
Materials
Shipment Ordering
Forecast
Long Range
Production Planning
SUPPLY
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 37/57
The Goals of SCM
Effective Inventory Management
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 38/57
The Goals of SCM
Effective Inventory Management
Inventory Levels are continually increased to overcome increased
supply chain variability and sustain desired service levels
Excess Inventory
Poor Supply Delivery Production Capacity Step 1 – Eliminate Excess Inventory
Performance Constraints
High Forecasting
Poor Quality of Raw Errors
Poorly
Materials Trained Staff
High Lead Time
Unplanned
Varaibility Downtime Step 2 – Reduce Supply Chain Variability
Long
Lead
Time
• High Inventory levels are used to overcome • Identify and eliminate root cause problems
variability in the supply chain contributing to excess inventory requirements
such as high supply / demand variability or long
replenishment cycles
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 39/57
Effective Inventory Management in the Supply Chain
Improve
Improve Matching
Matching of
of Supply
Supply
andand Demand
Demand
Improved Forecasting
Supply / Demand
Economies of Scale Variability Seasonal Variability
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 40/57
How Much of Each Stocked Item Will
be Used at Each Location ?
• A demand forecast is a prediction of the quality
of a product that will be sold, transferred or
otherwise used during a specific time period
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 41/57
Common Problems with Demand
Forecasting
o The “if it’s on paper it must be true” syndrome
o Umumnya sistem peramalan yang digunakan di perusahaan
menggunakan rumus perhitungan “rata-rata (average)” dari
penggunaan periode sebelumnya . Often buyers/planners don’t
know formula !
o Umumnya menggunakan 1 rumusan peramalan yang diterapkan
untuk semua jenis produk
o Tidak ada verifikasi dan peninjauan ulang untuk menganalisis
jumlah forecast pada bulan tertentu telah benar-benar
dieksekusi (terjual) atau tidak.
o Belum ada sistem yang handal untuk mendapatkan perkiraan
permintaan customer di masa yang akan datang.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 42/57
Accurate Demand Forecasts Are Based
on Five Elements
o Past Usage of the Products
• Suatu rumusan yang digunakan untuk menganalisis tren menurun
atau meningkatnya permintaan berdasarkan konsumsi
o External trends
• Economic or environmental factors
o Events
• Promotion, holidays, etc.
o Collaborative information from customers or salespeople
o Appropriate forecast horizon or time period
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 43/57
Calculating the Forecast Error
[ Absolute Value of (Usage – Forecast) ]
Lower of Forecast or Usage
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 44/57
The “Average” Forecast Error
o “Best Practice” companies had an error that was
approximately 1/10th of the Average forecast error in their
industry
o The Better your forecast, the less you need to stock to
maintain your desired level of Customer Service
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 45/57
Different Patterns of Usage Require
Different Forecasting Methods
Item Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan De
‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ’11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 ‘11 c
‘11
A100 100 120 80 90 110 105 88 109 98 118 112 108
B200 300 260 220 188 160 142 138 122 109 98 80 76
C300 1020 28 1030 34 990 36 1033 27 1004 39 1034 26
D400 41 85 160 241 370 398 224 129 57 36 24 20
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 46/57
Different Items Have Different
Patterns of Usage ...
28 59 89
days days days
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 48/57
PROCESS MAPPING APPROCAH
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 49/57
SCM PROCESS MAPPING APPROCAH
HIGH LEVEL PROCESS MAPPING =
VALUE STREAM MAPPING (VSM)
Product/Service Flow
Purchase &
Supplier Factory Distribution Retail Customer
Supply
Order Flow
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 50/57
APA ITU VALUE STREAM?
Adalah semua aktivitas,
baik yang memberi nilai
tambah maupun tidak,
yang dibutuhkan untuk
menyelesaikan satu
produk/jasa atau famili
produk/jasa dari awal
hingga akhir.
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 51/57
VALUE STREAM MAPPING
• Suatu metoda untuk melihat proses yang
memproduksikan barang/jasa Anda
• Memetakan alur produksi dan alur informasi
• Pada semua tingkat,
– Tidak hanya pada masing-masing proses, tetapi
– Juga termasuk para pelanggan dan pemasok
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 52/57
Value Stream Mapping
The Process
Customer
MRP MSS
X pcs/month
# times/day
Layout
2012 2013
Activity
1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH
Establish TAKT & Flow in Tank Ass'y
Stamping Changeover Reduction
Reduce Stamping Buffer
execute it ! Training
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 53/57
VALUE STREAM MAPPING
• Ikuti alur “barang” atau
“pelayanan” dari awal
hingga akhir, dan
Informasi
gambarkan setiap proses
dalam “alur material dan ALUR PROSES
informasi”.
• Kemudian, gambarkan Material
(dengan menggunakan
ikon) bagaimana alur dalam
peta masa mendatang”
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 54/57
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 55/57
VALUE STREAM MAPPING PROCESS
Value Stream
Tentukan Value Stream mana
Scope
yang perlu ditingkatkan
current state Pahami bagaimana operasi saat
drawing ini. Sebagai “Baseline”!
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 56/57
FUTURE STATE MAP
CURRENT FUTURE
Condition Condition
1.0-1.1. SCM Overview &-Beer Game-R0 ©Copyright of PQM Consultants – www.pqm.co.id 57/57