August 5, 2016

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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 43.55% of our

stocks assigned a valuation and 13.95% of those equities are calculated to
be overvalued by 20% or more. Six sectors are calculated to be
overvalued.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index

Started week

Friday AM

Change

Change %

ytd

DJIA

18434.5

18352.05

-82.45

-0.45%

5.32%

NASDAQ

5167.42

5166.25

-1.17

-0.02%

3.17%

RUSSELL 2000

1220.3

1213.76

-6.54

-0.54%

6.86%

S&P 500

2173.15

2164.25

-8.90

-0.41%

5.89%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

56.45%

Stocks Overvalued

43.55%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

23.32%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

13.95%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-M
Return

P/E
Ratio

Aerospace

0.18%

-0.43%

-2.93%

0.33% overvalued

-5.11%

19.07

Auto-Tires-Trucks

0.52%

-0.37%

1.76%

11.25% undervalued

-4.77%

14.71

Basic Materials

-0.16%

-0.34%

52.59%

12.56% overvalued

60.91%

33.98

Business Services

-0.42%

-1.38%

12.73%

7.55% undervalued

-3.88%

23.81

Computer and Technology

0.06%

-0.62%

11.05%

2.58% undervalued

1.18%

29.34

Construction

-0.43%

-0.81%

28.05%

2.02% undervalued

3.97%

20.99

Consumer Discretionary

0.27%

-0.01%

7.26%

2.27% undervalued

-4.32%

22.46

Consumer Staples

0.18%

-0.71%

8.44%

8.12% overvalued

5.76%

24.75

Finance

0.03%

-0.04%

5.14%

2.55% undervalued

-0.27%

16.32

Industrial Products

0.29%

-0.07%

10.84%

3.02% overvalued

2.66%

23.02

Medical

-0.19%

-0.05%

1.56%

7.91% undervalued

-19.36%

26.76

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

0.49%

0.21%

7.30%

1.29% overvalued

4.38%

20.42

Oils-Energy

0.34%

-0.64%

13.11%

2.23% undervalued

-14.62%

26.16

Retail-Wholesale

-0.21%

-0.87%

0.13%

10.33% undervalued

-7.28%

21.83

Transportation

-0.48%

-1.54%

9.24%

4.95% undervalued

-21.97%

16.33

Utilities

0.46%

-1.29%

12.50%

4.94% overvalued

11.81%

23.23

Sector TalkRetail/Wholesale
Below, we present the latest data on leading Retail/Wholesale Sector stocks
from our Professional Stock Analysis Service. We applied some basic liquidity
criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k
shares. We have been following the sector closely of late because it has been
correlated so tightly to overall equity price moves.

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

Last 12-M Retrn

VRA

VERA BRADLEY

13.85

-23.82%

30.29%

TECD

TECH DATA CORP

75.97

6.25%

32.72%

STMP

STAMPS.COM INC

78.67

-33.56%

9.72%

HBP

HUTTIG BLDG PRD

5.78

N/A

76.76%

PLCE

CHILDRENS PLACE

78.75

-0.53%

35.73%

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

Last 12-M Retrn

VRA

VERA BRADLEY

13.85

-23.82%

30.29%

TECD

TECH DATA CORP

75.97

6.25%

32.72%

STMP

STAMPS.COM INC

78.67

-33.56%

9.72%

HBP

HUTTIG BLDG PRD

5.78

N/A

76.76%

PLCE

CHILDRENS PLACE

78.75

-0.53%

35.73%

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

Last 12-M Retrn

VRA

VERA BRADLEY

13.85

-23.82%

30.29%

STMP

STAMPS.COM INC

78.67

-33.56%

9.72%

MIK

MICHAELS COS

25.52

-29.50%

1.88%

CAB

CABELAS INC

50.87

-10.83%

13.22%

EBAY

EBAY INC

31.06

-11.21%

9.33%

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Company Name

Market Price

Valuation

Last 12-M Retrn

CONN

CONNS INC

6.85

300.00%

-79.27%

NFLX

NETFLIX INC

93.44

34.77%

-22.87%

PIR

PIER 1 IMPORTS

4.94

33.16%

-57.19%

MELI

MERCADOLIBRE IN

152.25

26.17%

17.87%

ULTA

ULTA SALON COSM

260.68

23.86%

57.92%

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know,
ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a
variety of portfolio screening and creation tools.

What's Hot
ValuEngine View Portfolio Rides Brexit
Bounce To 8% Gain
For June/July, we had a great month as the markets shook off the Brexit
fallout and powered up once again. Our long-only ValueEngine View portfolio
matched the upswing perfectly with a big gain of 8.82%. We beat the benchmark
S&P 500's similar gain of 8.39% by 43 bps. The trailing 12 month gain of the VE View is
-5.23% versus the S&P 500 gain of 2.9%. The return since inception of the View is
108.25% versus the S&P's gain of 91.48%.
We had a perfect 100% hit ratio this month with 15/15 winning positions. Seven
of our picks provided double-digit returns with Thor Industries leading the way with a
great 22% pick up. Other double-digit returns came from Cooper-Standard, AMN
Health Care, Employers Holdings, Smith and Wesson, and Windstream. The big gains
meant that none of our picks hit stop-losses levels set at 10%. We will retain those stops
at the 10% level moving forward.
Currently, the Valuation Model finds that 45.37% of the equities to which we
can assign a valuation are overvalued--with 15.22% coming in overvalued at 20% or
more. Seven sectors are calculated to be overvalued. Our valuation figures still show
a "normal" market, with valuations nowhere near that bargain level they presented in
the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.
The markets in the US and elsewhere certainly shook off that Brexit panic, with
several indices setting new records over the past few weeks. Many analysts found
that the uncertainty in the EU removed any possible scenario where the Fed would
raise rates any time soon. Of course, that is not to say that some Fed officials don't
favor increases, but the time to hit the brakes may have passed by given the fact
that the US is in the midst of a presidential election, and the central bank is notoriously
skittish about any hint of political bias.
Once again, after this week's meetings, the Fed has stood pat. But, if good
data for the US and world economy holds up, the Fed may push for an increase in
September. Again, we find that the labor market should still be given some room to
run. As always, and as we repeat like a mantra, the balancing act between the dual
mandate of control inflation and foster full employment creates tension.

In our July portfolio, we turnover just four positions. On a sector basis the model
likes Consumer Discretionary stocks and Tech stocks, We add one selection from our
Valuation model's aggressive-growth strategy, one position from our Forecast model's
diversified-growth strategy, and two positions favored by both.
Below are the latest results from our VE View Strategy Newsletter:
Company Name

Entry Price
6/28/16

AHS

AMN HLTHCR SVCS

37.73

43.84

6.11

16.19

CPS

COOPER-STANDARD

74.61

89.73

15.12

20.27

EIG

EMPLOYERS HLDGS

27.14

31.39

4.25

15.66

HII

HUNTINGTON INGL

159.1

168.51

9.41

5.91

Ticker

Exit Price
Change
7/26/16

%Change

HRL

HORMEL FOODS CP

35.66798

36.81

1.14

3.20

KORS

MICHAEL KORS

46.19

51.68

5.49

11.89

LNT

ALLIANT ENGY CP

39.85

40.4

0.55

1.38

LUV

SOUTHWEST AIR

36.76

37.36

0.60

1.63

RAI

REYNOLDS AMER

52.01

52.31

0.30

0.58

RTN

RAYTHEON CO

134.0732

135.56

1.49

1.11

SWHC

SMITH & WESSON

25.61

29.37

3.76

14.68

AT&T INC

41.56462

42.94

1.38

3.31

THO

THOR INDS INC

60.66

74.03

13.37

22.04

VZ

VERIZON COMM

54.19289

55.87

1.68

3.09

WINDSTREAM HLDG

8.29

9.23

0.94

11.34

WIN

LONG PORTFOLIO
GSPC

S&P500

8.82
2000.54

2168.48

167.94

8.39

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers,
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports
United Rentals, Inc. (URI) is one of North America's largest equipment rental
companies with over branches in the majority of states, several Canadian provinces
and Mexico. The company offers for rent different types of equipment to customers
that include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities,
municipalities, homeowners and others.
VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its STRONG BUY
recommendation on UTD RENTALS INC for 2016-08-04. Based on the information we
have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that UTD RENTALS INC has the
probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The
company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Company Size.
Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on United Rentals HERE.

ValuEngine Forecast
Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

77.75

1.06%

3-Month

79.40

3.21%

6-Month

80.52

4.67%

1-Year

86.75

12.77%

2-Year

84.44

9.76%

3-Year

81.39

5.80%

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

1.86% undervalued

Valuation Rank(?)

1-M Forecast Return

1.06%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

12-M Return

17.45%

Momentum Rank(?)

79
83

49
98

Sharpe Ratio

0.52

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

5-Y Avg Annual Return

24.84%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

Volatility

47.37%

Volatility Rank(?)

39

Expected EPS Growth

5.70%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

33

Market Cap (billions)

7.68

Size Rank

95

88

Trailing P/E Ratio

9.39

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

92

Forward P/E Ratio

8.89

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

87

PEG Ratio

1.65

PEG Ratio Rank

Price/Sales

1.32

Price/Sales Rank(?)

Market/Book

5.11

Market/Book Rank(?)

Beta

2.52

Beta Rank

Alpha

0.09

Alpha Rank

29
58
24
7
74

ValuEngine Capital Money Management Services

We are pleased to announce that ValuEngine Capital has begun trading for
our clients. ValuEngine Capital, a registered investment advisory firm, offers our clients
investment-management services based on industry-leading ValuEngine research.
ValuEngine Capital melds the cutting-edge financial theory of ValuEngine's awardwinning quantitative independent research with the best real-world Wall St. practices.
ValuEngine Capital offers refined investment portfolios for investors of all risk-reward
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ValuEngine Capital is offering several investment strategies to clients, including
the the ValuEngine View Strategy and the ValuEngine Diversified Strategy
Professional Portfolio Management Services
ValuEngine View Strategy: The ValuEngine View Strategy is the product of a
sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by
ValuEngine's academic research team.
It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's
trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of
the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used
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A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. The
ValuEngine View portfolio is constructed by integrating both our Aggressive
Growthbased on the Valuation Model--and Diversified Growthbased on
the Forecast Model-- Portfolio Strategies.
The ValuEngine View Strategy is constructed by integrating this model along
with some basic rules for market capitalization and industry diversification. The
portfolio has 15 stocks and is rebalanced once each month.
Strategies To Suit All Investor Types
The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy: The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy
invests in a variety of asset classes in order to provide investors with stable
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The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy may include ETFs focused on commodities,
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seeks to remain resilient during times of market volatility.
The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy is designed for investors seeking
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Please contact us if you would like to put the power of ValuEngine to work
for you at our new full-service money management firm-ValuEngine Capital
For more information, please contact us by email at
info@ValuEngineCapital.com or by phone at (407) 308-5686.
ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing
buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 7,000
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