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Warsaw Retail:
Mind the Gap!
May 2009
2 Warsaw Retail: Mind the Gap • May 2009
Warsaw Retail: Mind the Gap • May 2009 3
• retail density across 92 urban areas of Warsaw; Retail provision density (m2 / 1,000 inhabitants) – districts of
Warsaw
• future development of the residential market in Warsaw;
Rembertów
• purchasing power broken down to the urban areas. Wilanów
Żoliborz
The aim of this report was to identify Warsaw sub-regions with
Wawer
greatest potential for new sustainable retail centre. For this reason
Wesoła
the report is principally aimed at retail developers, investors and
Bielany
financing institutions. Praga Pd.
First dimension – retail market situation Białołęka
The retail market in Warsaw has undergone a transformation, Mokotów
particularly over the last decade. First and second generation Praga Pn.
A key part of a retail analysis is the site catchment area. While By far the largest concentration of residential developments to be
status quo analyses are quite easily feasible based on available completed during the next 24 months can be found in the
demographic data, prognoses are not. In order to estimate the future Miasteczko Wilanów development area in the northern part of the
population living in a defined catchment area, it is critical to monitor Wilanów district. Another important region with high building
the development of the residential market on a regular basis. This intensities is the Białołęka district, particularly the three
applies both for the secondary market and the primary market. In neighbourhoods of Mańki-Brzeziny, Nowodwory and Tarchomin.
case of the former, transformations in the population pattern of a Furthermore, there are several smaller neighbourhoods of quite high
functioning neighbourhood are mainly due to gradual changes in construction and pipeline activity, such as Bemowo’s Górce area or
household structures. Current trend in this respect is a development the downtown neighbourhood of Centrum-Północ. These areas look
towards less dense living, with the number of persons within a set to change not only the physical/ architectural appearance but
household gradually declining. Thus, changes in the secondary also the resident profile, both in quantitative and qualitative terms.
market typically point towards a decrease in residents lining in the
existing housing stock. On the contrary, Warsaw’s primary market is In addition to short-term outlook based on developers’ plans, REAS
quickly developing and adds a large portion of new dwellers to forecast residential growth in Warsaw’s 92 urban planning areas by
certain neighbourhoods. The increase in population is derived from 2020. This long-term forecast is chiefly built upon residential
both migrants and the inner-city redistribution of Warsaw residents. development opportunities according to official spatial planning
In any case, new residential development plans are a barometer of documents from the Warsaw Municipality. Furthermore, it also takes
future growth areas in terms of population. into account development trends as well as developers’
announcements of projects for completion after 2010. Again, REAS
According to REAS monitoring of developers’ plans, there are more estimates show the highest long-term development potential in the
than 38,600 apartments planned to be completed in over 300 urban areas of Wilanów-Czerniaków and Mańki-Brzeziny followed
residential developments over 2009-2010. A large part of these by two other Białołęka areas (Nowodwory and Tarchomin) as well
projects is at advanced building stage, under construction or just as Ursynów’s Kabaty neighbourhood and a few peripheral areas in
before construction starts. Thus, the current crisis, which heavily the southern parts of Warsaw. Since this forecast determines
impacts on Warsaw’s housing market in general, should bring potential housing expansion in usable area, it does not translate into
limited changes to the progress of the majority of these projects. household or resident estimates, as single-family developments are
Nevertheless, it is inevitable that the completion of several included too. However, it gives a general idea of future development
developments will be postponed until after 2010 or, in a certain trends and, more importantly, it is able to confirm the key growth
number of cases, brought to standstill, depending on the developer’s areas out of the short-term analysis for 2009-2010.
financial situation and the advancement stage of each specific
project.
Warsaw Retail: Mind the Gap • May 2009 7
Source: REAS
8 Warsaw Retail: Mind the Gap • May 2009
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