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We should
accept instead the judgement of Habakkuk: the vision is yet for an
appointed time. Whether in the end it shall not lie remains to be
established.
In addition to standard biases, I have personally observed what look like harmful modes of thinking specific to
The Spanish flu of 1918 killed 25-50 million people. World War II
killed 60 million people. 107 is the order of the largest catastrophes in humanity's written history.
Substantially larger numbers, such as 500 million deaths, and especially
qualitatively different scenarios such as the extinction of the entire human
species, seem to trigger a different mode of thinking - enter into a
"separate magisterium". People who would never dream of hurting a child hear of an existential risk,
existential risks.
and say, "Well, maybe the human species doesn't really deserve to survive." There is a saying in heuristics and
biases that people do not evaluate events, but descriptions of events - what is
called non-extensional reasoning. The extension of humanity's extinction includes the death of yourself, of your
friends, of your family, of your loved ones, of your city, of your country, of your political fellows. Yet people who
would take great offense at a proposal to wipe the country of Britain from the map, to kill every member of the
Democratic Party in the U.S., to turn the city of Paris to glass - who would feel still greater horror on hearing the
doctor say that their child had cancer - these people will discuss the extinction of humanity with perfect calm.