Professional Documents
Culture Documents
www.geopoliticalfutures.com
Main Forecasts:
The main trend over the next quarter of a century will be the continued and intensifying instability in the Eastern Hemisphere and increasing
stability in the Western Hemisphere.
The U.S. will adopt a new strategy of maintaining power at the lowest possible cost, eschewing direct military intervention for containing
regional problems and supporting allies.
limited to the south, but will extend to the northwest into the Balkans and north into the Black
Sea Basin.
Some areas that are currently not seen as globally significant will emerge as economic powers, if not yet strategic challenges to the United
States. They will be the high-growth, low-wage
countries and, in many cases, simultaneously
advanced industrial countries.
Other Forecasts:
The U.S. strategy with Russia from now until
2040 is to confront Moscow with a line of resistance (which includes the Baltic states, Poland,
Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria) without itself becoming overly exposed.
From Europe to China, there are extraordinarily capable and creative populations that will
continue to create wealth for themselves and
others. But all of these countries with the
exception of India, which is already divided in
many ways are undergoing a process of fragmentation that will reduce their weight in the
international system.
The contraction in oil revenue will have longterm consequences in Russia. There will neither
be sufficient resources for Moscow to sustain
the region, nor an effective security apparatus
to compel unity.
The emergence of new economic powers,
which will certainly happen in the next 25 years,
is likely to be matched with new sources of
energy, including hydrocarbons and others.
As mentioned previously, Turkey will be forced
to assert its military and economic strength
against IS and other challengers, thrusting
Turkey into the position of being the dominant
regional power by 2040. This power will not be
www.geopoliticalfutures.com
Conclusion
This forecast has reflected on the first consequences of the long cycle that began in 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The cycle of European domination lasted 500 years. We cannot say how long
the American Epoch will last, but we can say, given the increasing disorder in the Eastern Hemisphere,
we see no indication at all that the cycle is concluding. And such cycles take centuries.
Certainly, the basic framework we have described one destabilizing hemisphere and one stabilizing
hemisphere may only be the first phase of the epoch, but it is the one that will define the next 25
years. It will be a dangerous time, as are all times. It will be filled with error, miscalculation and foolishness, along with brilliance, precision and wisdom. Because of this, it has never been more important to
be aware of how geopolitical events shape emerging and future trends.
How would your outlook on the world change if you knew about the hidden connections likely to influence world events? Leverage global intelligence to help you stay one step ahead in your personal and
business decisions with Geopolitical Futures, an exclusive publication from intelligence and geopolitics expert George Friedman, New York Times best selling author of The Next 100 Years and The Next
Decade and former Chairman and CEO of Stratfor.
Geopolitical Futures is not just a newsletter its a complete package of reports and updates to keep
your future in focus. And as a reader of this special report, you can save $40 if you subscribe now.
Thats full access for just $99.
George Friedman combines decades of experience in geopolitics, sharply honed research and analytical skills, and information gleaned from his international network to deliver this essential tool that will
enable you to navigate the future.
www.geopoliticalfutures.com
facebook.com/geopoliticalfutures
twitter.com/GPFutures
linkedin.com/company/geopolitical-futures
www.geopoliticalfutures.com