Mathematical Methods

Outcome 6- Probability
T wo -state Ma rko v C ha ins: the result of each trial is
conditional on the result of the previous trial

C ontinuous prob abil ity: it can take any value

in a given interval

The general structure of a transition matrix:

S te ady state o f a Marko v chain:

The properties of the probability density function:

1. f(x)0 for all x
!

2. !! () = 1
Geo metric Dis trib utio n:
It is different to binomial and markov chain.
Typically a question will ask:
e.g. What is the probability that you have x failures before
success:

Tip:
1. f(x) does not have to be smooth curve. They
can be other shapes too!

Ex pected value o f a c ontinuous prob abili ty

dens ity func tio n:

N ormal Di stri bution: it may take any value within a

given range, and no distinct, countable values.

Variance

It has the following properties:

1. Symmetrical
2. Bell shaped
3. Mean=mode=median
S ta nd ard isa ti on and the 6 8-9 5-9 9.7 % rule

P erce ntile and the media n

The median for continuous random variable is such
that:

99.7% of the values

lie within three
standard deviation
of the means

We can solve this on the calculator (CAS):

95% of the values

lie within two
standard deviation
of the mean

The interquartile range of X is:

IQR= b-a

68% of the values

lie within one
standard deviation
of the mean

Calculator tips:
We can determine normal probabilities using this

To standardise, we use Z=

!!!
!