Study On The Impact of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation On Peak Demand

TITLE:
Study on the impact of Photovoltaic (PV) generation

on peak demand
PREPARED BY:
Ben Jones
MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS:
Nigel Wilmot, Alan Lark

THIS REVISION:
1B, 5-April-2012
ORIGINAL ISSUE:
DATE FOR NEXT REVIEW:
1-March-2012
January 2013
Network Planning and Development Branch | Networks Division
Western Power 2011-2012
Page 2
Contents
Executive Summary..........................................................................................5
Purpose .............................................................................................................6
Introduction .......................................................................................................7
PV Applications and Capacity Forecast .........................................................8

4.1
4.2
Number of Systems........................................................................................8
Trend Increase in Average PV System Capacity ...........................................9
Estimating PV Output .....................................................................................11

5.1 Simulated PV generation output capacity ....................................................11
5.2 Actual Load Results from PV Saturation Trial ..............................................12
5.3 Estimated PV generation output capacity from WPN metering data............14
5.4 Estimated PV generation output capacity from Perth Solar City Trial
metering data.........................................................................................................20
5.5 Comparison of Results .................................................................................23
5.6 Behavioural Changes ...................................................................................24
5.6.1
Base Case ..........................................................................................24
5.6.2
Behavioural Change Scenarios ..........................................................25
5.6.3
Summary.............................................................................................27
5.7 Network Charges and Peak Load ................................................................27
Results and analysis ......................................................................................28

6.1 Effect of PV on the WPN Summer Peak Day...............................................28
6.1.1
2012 Peak Year ..................................................................................28
6.1.2
2014 Peak Year ..................................................................................29
6.1.3
2017 Peak Year ..................................................................................29
6.1.4
Summary Output.................................................................................30
6.2 Effect of PV on Substation Peak Loads .......................................................30
6.2.1
Distribution of PV Systems .................................................................30
6.2.2
Mandurah Substation..........................................................................32
6.2.3
Canningvale Substation ......................................................................33
6.2.4
Padbury Substation.............................................................................34
6.2.5
Landsdale Substation .........................................................................34
6.2.6
Riverton Substation.............................................................................35
6.2.7
Wanneroo Substation .........................................................................36
6.2.8
Gosnells Substation ............................................................................36
6.2.9
Waikiki Substation...............................................................................37
6.2.10 Substation Summary...........................................................................37
Conclusion ......................................................................................................39
Future Directions ............................................................................................40
Page 3
List of figures
Figure 1: Monthly PV Applications ...............................................................................8
Figure 2: Forecast of approved PV applications ..........................................................9
Figure 3: Forecast of installed PV generation capacity..............................................10
Figure 4: Daily PV generation average output capacity per PV unit ..........................12
Figure 5: PV Saturation Trial Average Standardised Generation Profiles .................13
Figure 6: PV Generation Profiles by Panel Direction .................................................13
Figure 7: Map of Specified Customer Groups, WPN wide. ........................................15
Figure 8: Average Spring Load ..................................................................................16
Figure 9: Average Spring Generation Profile and Probability ....................................16
Figure 10: Average Summer Load .............................................................................17
Figure 11: Average Summer Generation Profile and Probability ...............................17
Figure 12: Average Autumn Load ..............................................................................17
Figure 13: Average Autumn Generation Profile and Probability ................................18
Figure 14: Average Winter Load ................................................................................18
Figure 15: Average Winter Generation Profile and Probability ..................................18
Figure 16: Comparison of Seasonal Generation Estimates .......................................19
Figure 17: Daily difference between customer groups in February 2011...................19
Figure 18: Comparison of Summer Generation Estimates ........................................20
Figure 19: Map of Specified Customer Groups..........................................................21
Figure 20: Average Summer Load .............................................................................22
Figure 21: Average Summer Generation Profile and Probability ...............................23
Figure 22: Comparison of Standardised PV profiles ..................................................23
Figure 23: Standard Annual Customer Profile ...........................................................24
Figure 24: 2012 Annual Energy Implications .............................................................25
Figure 25: 2012 Annual Bill Implications ....................................................................25
Figure 26: Adjusted Annual Customer profiles...........................................................26
Figure 27: Annual Electricity bill for PV to Peak Load Shift........................................26
Figure 28: Standard Summer Customer Profile .........................................................27
Figure 29: 2012 System Load Estimate .....................................................................28
Figure 32: September 2011 PV penetration of the Perth Metro region......................31
Figure 33: Mandurah Substation................................................................................32
Figure 34: Canningvale Substation ............................................................................33
Figure 35: Padbury Substation...................................................................................34
Figure 36: Landsdale Substation ...............................................................................34
Figure 37: Riverton Substation...................................................................................35
Figure 38: Wanneroo Substation ...............................................................................36
Figure 39: Gosnells Substation ..................................................................................36
Figure 40: Waikiki Substation.....................................................................................37
Page 4
Executive Summary
This report presents summary information about the number of
photovoltaic (PV) systems installed across households connected to
the Western Power Network. This report also documents Western
Powers analysis of the associated impacts on system peak demand
and energy consumption.
Key findings are summarised as follows:
The latest data (recorded over the 2011 calendar year) broadly
confirms the validity of the simulation studies presents in the
2011 Photovoltaic (PV) Forecast1.
As of December 2011, there are approximately 93,914 PV

known systems.
The average PV system capacity is trending upwards from an

average of 1.2 kW in May 2009 to 2.2 kW in December 2011.
The introduction and then pending removal of the State

Governments feed-in tariff of 47c/kWh coincided with a
marked acceleration in connection applications for, and
installations of, PV systems. Since the cessation of the feed-in
tariff, applications have slowed markedly to a longer term rate
of 2000 applications per month.
Preliminary results (2011) obtained within the Perth Solar

Cities trial showed households who have PV systems have a
peak period load (between 6 PM and 7 PM) approximately 0.4
kW higher than households without PV systems. Further work
is required to understand behavioural change and its impacts
as a result of PV's over the longer term.
PV systems are estimated to have reduced the 2011 system

peak load by 0.62% (24 MW).
The impact of PVs on substation peak load is highly

dependent on the time of substation peak and may be either
positive or negative.
The impact of PVs on the 2011 substation peaks may be as

great as a 1.75% reduction in some locations.
In aggregate, continued growth in the number of PV systems is

estimated to reduce the system peak by 2.95% (135 MW) in
2017.
http://www.westernpower.com.au/aboutus/publications/pv_forecast.html
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Purpose
This document presents:
Description of data relating to the impact of photovoltaic

electricity generation systems (PV systems) installed in
households across the Western Power Network (WPN).
Analysis of the impact of PV systems on the system and

substation peaks. This takes into account both technical
performance and consumer behaviour.
The information contained in this document is useful for informing

network planners and policy makers about the current and future
impact of PV systems on the annual peak demand and energy
consumption.
A key objective of this report is to present information demonstrating
the validity of earlier simulation studies (reference report) and to
highlight key findings drawn from data analysis.
Page 6
Introduction
PV system penetration on the Western Power Network (WPN) has
grown substantially over recent years and is expected to continue to
grow. PV systems are having a noticeable impact on the network
through changes to energy consumption and other localised issues. It
is therefore important to develop an understanding of the current and
future effects of PV systems. The focus of this report is on the
calculating expected changes to peak load demand.
Increasing PV generation capacity on the network has coincided with
government subsidies that have reduced the cost of PV systems for
households. While demand has been increasing, the number of
suppliers and installers has also increased. Despite the reduction in
government subsidy, the costs of PV systems continue to decline.
Cost reduction enhances the financial case for residential adoption of
PV systems.
In addition to accelerating the take-up of PV systems in the household
sector, the feed-in tariff has the potential to change in the daily pattern
of electricity consumption in households that have installed PV
systems.
This report presents a summary of the data relating to:
the number of PV systems installed;
trends in the average capacity of household PV systems.
differences in energy consumption patterns across households

with PV systems installed against households without PV
systems;
comparison of standardised load profiles across households

with installed PV systems across simulated data, the PV
saturation trial data, Perth Solar City Trial data; and WPN
household metered data.
an assessment of associated change in daily net electricity

consumption patterns induced by (i) the installation of PV
systems and (ii) introduction of the feed-in tariff.
Based on this analysis, Western Power has forecast PV take-up rates

(from application data) and developed PV generation profiles (from
simulated and actual data). These estimates are used to adjust the
system peak demand.
Page 7
4
4.1
PV Applications and Capacity Forecast

Number of Systems
The current number of 93,914 PV system installations is based on
applications to the end of December 2011. Between January 2011
and June 2011 there was strong growth in applications, peaking at
9,700 PV systems per month. Prior to this, the monthly application
rate was around 2,000 PV systems per month.
The Western Australian government offered the 40c / kWh feed in tariff
for energy generated from PVs between 1st July 2010 and 1st August
2011. In addition to the feed in tariff, the electricity retailer (Synergy)
offered households 7c / kWh (Renewable Energy Buy-Back Scheme
REBS), making the total price paid 47c / kWh.
Figure 1 shows the quantity of monthly applications with particular
reference to the feed in tariff events.
Figure 1: Monthly PV Applications
Since government subsidies have been reduced, take-up rates have

returned to the longer term value of 2,000 PV systems per month
(average of 1,961 between August and December 2011). Without
further changes to government subsidies, it is reasonable to expect
that the longer term rate of 2,000 PV system applications per month
will continue. Two alternative scenarios were developed based on the
experience and expectations of Western Power network engineers.
Three different PV system take-up forecasts are considered in this
report:
Low Forecast: 1,300 PV systems per month

o
Mid-Range Forecast: 2,000 PV systems per month

o
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Based on a reduced and moderate applications;
Based on the longer term applications;
High Forecast: 3,000 PV systems per month.
Based on the more recent higher applications;
Dec-11
Historical
High
Mid-range
Low
FORECAST
500
Processed Applications ('000s)
450
400
394,414
350
283,414
300
250
200
227,814
93,914
108,914
150
179,714
100
105,914
50
Jul-20
Jan-20
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jul-18
Jan-18
Jul-17
Jan-17
Jul-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
Figure 2: Forecast of approved PV applications
At this early stage of adoption, Western Power is not sure on the

longer term trends in the application rate and has used linear
modelling. Acceleration or deceleration of the application rate is
possible but these scenarios are not yet modelled. Another factor not
yet modelled is network constraints that will limit the ability of the
network to accommodate new PV systems.
4.2
Trend Increase in Average PV System

Capacity
Current databases do not allow for a great deal of insight in to the
capacity of the PV systems installed. From the available data
however, the trend that is evident from the available information is that
the average PV system size has been steadily increasing:
May 2009
Average 1.2 kW System based on Australian

Greenhouse Office (AGO) data for the Solar Homes
And Communities Plan (SHCP);
May 2009 June 2010
Average 1.5 kW System based on Office of Energy

(OoE) information;
June 2010 Jan 2011
Average 1.8 kW System based on info provided on Net

Feed-In Tariff;
Jan 2011 June 2011
Average 2.2 kW System based on info provided on Net

Feed-In Tariff;
June 2011
Assumed continuation of 2.2 kW average from the Jan

2011 June 2011 period.
Page 9
This report assumes that the last available average will continue
however variations upwards or downwards are possible and are not
explored fully in this report.
Continued reduction in the retail price of PV systems would encourage
further expansion of average capacity however continued expansion
could be limited by available roof space. As at December 2011, the
average household PV system capacity of the currently installed PV
population is 1.92kW.
Western Power estimates are based on the installed capacity of the
PV inverter. In some cases, the capacity of the panels is higher or
lower than the capacity of the inverter. This report assumes that on
average, the capacity of the panels equals the capacity of the inverter.
Residential Inverter Embedded Generation Capacity forecast
Note: Increased rate of applications from March 2011 due to announcements of changes to
Government incentive schemes. These application rates are not expected to continue.
1,000
2.50
889
900
800
2.00
1.50
500
493
400
1.00
300
210
200
Average System Size (MW)
Power (MW)
600
Average System Size (kW)
700
0.50
194
181
100
0.00
Approved capacity (Estimated MW)

Forecast (Low)
Forecast (Mid)
Average System Size
Jun-20
Dec-19
Jun-19
Dec-18
Jun-18
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-15
Dec-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-10
Dec-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Forecast (High)
Figure 3: Forecast of installed PV generation capacity
The forecast of installed PV generation capacity is derived by the

multiplication of quantity of units shown in Figure 2 by the average size
of new units listed above.
Page 10
Estimating PV Output
Several methods have been used to estimate PV output. In the first
method is taken from an earlier document (2011 Photovoltaic (PV)
Forecast2). In this method, simulated data has been developed using
meteorological data. The second method uses actual gross PV
generation profiles collected from a recent PV trial. These methods
reveal the expected impacts of generation free of behavioural
changes.
The third method estimates output by comparing the consumption
patterns of two customer groups, one with and one without PV
systems. This method has been applied to two distinct samples: all
available residential customers across the WPN; and across the Perth
Solar City (PSC) trial participants. The use of real metering data (as
opposed to simulation data) permits an assessment of the impact of
both generation and residential consumer behavioural impacts.
Residential profiles (as opposed to commercial or industrial profiles)
have been used exclusively as they currently have the greatest
number of PV applications. The two regions will have substantially
different consumption profiles, however if accurate, the generation
profiles should be similar.
In addition, comparison of simulated data to real data provides an
opportunity to validate the simulation method.
5.1
Simulated PV generation output capacity

The following section is taken from an earlier document (2011
Photovoltaic (PV) Forecast). It is based on simulated data which has
many benefits including the ability to test between expected and actual
generation.
This PV generation profile has been prepared using simulated data
from the National Renewable Energy Laboratorys (NREL) PV Watts
Calculator for each hour of the year. The NREL calculator uses a
yearly set of data derived from each calendar month from a different
year during the period 1983 to 1999.
The NREL PV Watts Calculator can be used to estimate the power
output of grid connected PV systems anywhere in the world. This
allows a user to develop an estimate of the performance of
hypothetical PV installations.
The PV Watts Yearly Hourly Performance Data Output calculator uses
typical hourly meteorological weather data over a year and a PV
performance model to estimate annual power output for a crystalline
silicon PV system.
In this analysis, and under the adopted criteria:
PV systems are installed at 22.6 degrees to the horizontal,

which is assumed to be a typical roof angle for the Perth metro
area
the orientation of the PV systems is assumed to be evenly

distributed about the mean of North (0 degrees) with a
http://www.westernpower.com.au/aboutus/publications/pv_forecast.html
Page 11
standard deviation of 60 degrees. For maximum PV output, the

PV systems are assumed to be orientated from West to North,
to East
Figure 4: Daily PV generation, showing the hourly PV generation
profiles for the following case studies of daily PV generation profiles,
includes:
high case (average output values experienced during summer);
mid case (average output values experienced over the year);
low case (average output values experienced during winter);
These profiles use the sunlight intensity at the end of each hourly
interval; hence Figure 4: Daily PV generation, plots generation output
for the interval period (one hour) at the end of the period.
Daily PV Generation
High Case
Mid Case
Low Case
1
0.9
Normalised Generation
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time
Figure 4: Daily PV generation average output capacity per PV unit
5.2
Actual Load Results from PV Saturation Trial

A second set of PV generation profiles has been revealed from a
recently completed PV trial. The trial was completed by Western
Powers Smart Grid team in early 2012 as part of the PSC trial. In the
trial, 12 PV systems were metered directly, allowing for technical
analysis free of behavioural changes. 9 PVs were NW facing and 3
NE facing.
The data was collected in 15 minute kWh intervals and was converted
to average kW, standardised against the panel capacity, then
averaged across the customers and across the summer period (24th
November 2011 24th February 2012). The following graphs present
the percentiles from this summary data.
Page 12
Figure 5: PV Saturation Trial Average Standardised Generation Profiles
The PV saturation trial reveals that during summer, the average daily
maximum output is approximately 80% of the capacity of the system.
Figure 6: PV Generation Profiles by Panel Direction
Maximum PV output measured in daily kWh is expected where the

panels are oriented due north. In many situations, due north is not
practical and the owner/installer must choose another orientation. In
this study, NW and NE were tested and both have similar daily kWh
output, however the panels facing NW have a greater potential to
reduce afternoon peak consumption. At the time of day when the
system peak (4:30PM) occurs, the panels facing NE were producing
approximately 20% of their average summer maximum output,
Page 13
whereas the panels facing NW were producing approximately 50% of

their average summer maximum output.
5.3
Estimated PV generation output capacity

from WPN metering data
PV generation profiles have been estimated using metering data from
across the WPN. In Western Australia, domestic electricity meters are
positioned at the customer connection to the network and include two
registers: an export register that records net energy transferred from
the network to the customer and an import register that records net
energy transferred from the customer to the network. As such, energy
generated by PV systems is not measured directly.
To imply energy generated by PVs, two customer groups were
identified: a control group and a PV group. The two groups have the
following characteristics. These profiles are used to extract
comparable data from the metering database.
CONTROL GROUP
Has an interval meter with 15 or
30 minute interval data available
in the study period (Sep10Aug11)
Is on a residential tariff
Never has an active import
register
Has an average 3:00 3:30 am
summer load between 2 and
22,000 watts
Is not on Western Powers list of
known customers with PV
systems
PV GROUP
Has an active import register in
the period of analysis
22,000 watts
Is on Western Powers list of
known customers with PV
systems
The filters to define the groups are designed to capture the

majority of customers while excluding all potential non-residential
customers and customers without consumption outside
reasonable boundaries. Although the filters should remove all
non-residential customers both the control and PV group are
known to be polluted with community, agricultural and commercial
customers. These customers reduce the reliability of the results
produce from this method, although the larger sample is more
likely to smooth out customer specific characteristics.
Page 14
Figure 7: Map of Specified Customer Groups, WPN wide.
The two groups were compared for each season, producing an

average generation estimate for that particular season. In each case,
for each of the 30 minute time intervals, the customer groups were
tested to determine if they were statistically similar to a significance
threshold of 5% (5% was selected by convention).
The hypothesis of the T-test test is as follows:
Null Hypothesis: The two groups are similar.
Alternative Hypothesis: The two groups are not similar.
If the groups are homogenous in their consumption patterns, they
should be statistically similar overnight, and be statistically different
while the PV is generating.
The following table displays the percentages of the average day for
which the two groups are statistically similar:
Season
% Similar
Spring
38%
Summer
19%
Autumn
2%
Winter
31%
Page 15
The two groups are expected to be statistically similar for no more

than 50% of the day. Apart from autumn, the two groups are
considered sufficiently similar to conclude that part of the difference is
associated with PV systems rather than customer behaviour. Autumn
has been included as is for comparison and analysis.
The following graphs present the average load profile of the customers
taken from metering data. For each metered interval period, the
average load (kW) was calculated and graphed in the midpoint of the
interval period. The profiles are not standardised and therefore
represent actual average load / generation.
Spring
Figure 8: Average Spring Load
Figure 9: Average Spring Generation Profile and Probability
Page 16
Summer
Figure 10: Average Summer Load
Figure 11: Average Summer Generation Profile and Probability
Autumn
Figure 12: Average Autumn Load
Page 17
Figure 13: Average Autumn Generation Profile and Probability
Winter
Figure 14: Average Winter Load
Figure 15: Average Winter Generation Profile and Probability
Page 18
Figure 16: Comparison of Seasonal Generation Estimates
There is a visible bias amongst all months towards morning

generation. The cause of this bias may be due to panel orientation,
location, heat effects or other impacts.
To derive the possible impact on peak, it is important to understand
both the average generation and average variability. Daily profiles
were developed using the same process displayed above with the
following results.
In 2011, System Peak occurred on the 25th of February
Figure 17: Daily difference between customer groups in February 2011
The daily differences were then arranged as percentiles to scale the

average profile up or down to produce the following estimates.
Page 19
Figure 18: Comparison of Summer Generation Estimates
As shown in Figure 17, generation on system peak day (25th February

2011) is not necessarily the highest. This may be due to the known
reduction in efficiency due to heat, humidity, cloud cover or simply the
fact that days towards the end of summer are shorter than days at the
beginning of summer. Some preliminary evidence from this study
suggests that days with peak electrical load may have an average
generation profile that is lower than average generation over summer.
However without certainty, average summer profiles will be used to
estimate the impact on peak.
Although the estimated average inverter capacity of currently installed
PV systems in the WPN is estimated to be 1.92kW, the generation
estimates presented are too low to be generated by an average this
high. The PV saturation trial revealed that at maximum, the average
daily peak generation is 80% of capacity. For the purpose of
comparison, the average capacity of the PV sample is therefore
assumed to be 1.2kW.
5.4
Estimated PV generation output capacity

from Perth Solar City Trial metering data
PV generation profiles have been estimated using metering data from
the Perth Solar City (PSC) Trial region in the eastern suburbs of Perth.
As part of the PSC trial, interval meters were connected to
approximately 11,000 customers. Many of these customers also
participated in energy reduction programmes. Two customer groups
were identified within the region; a control group and a PV group. The
two groups have the following characteristics.
Page 20
CONTROL GROUP
Received an interval meter as
part of the PSC trial program but
did not participate in load
reduction programmes.
Did not receive or purchase a
discounted PV as part of the PSC
trial.
Never has an active import
register
22,000 watts
Is not on Western Powers list of
known customers with PVs
PV GROUP
Received an interval meter as
part of the PSC program but did
not participate in load reduction
programmes.
Did not receive or purchase a
discounted PV as part of the PSC
trial.
Has an active import register in
the period of analysis
22,000 watts
Is on Western Powers list of
known customers with PVs
The filters to define the groups are designed to capture the

majority of customers while excluding all potential non-residential
customers and customers without consumption outside
reasonable boundaries.
Figure 19: Map of Specified Customer Groups
Page 21
The two groups were compared for each season, producing an

average generation estimate for that particular season. In each case,
the customer groups were tested to determine what percentage of the
day they were statistically similar to a significance threshold of 5% (5%
was selected by convention).
The hypothesis of the T-test is as follows:
Null Hypothesis: The two groups are similar.
Alternative Hypothesis: The two groups are not similar.
If the groups are homogenous in their consumption patterns, they
should be statistically similar overnight, and be statistically different
while the PV is generating.
The following table displays the percentages of the average day for
which the two groups are statistically similar:
Season
% Similar
Spring
0%
Summer
38%
Autumn
0%
Winter
0%
Unlike the samples taken from the total network, the two groups are
only sufficiently similar during summer. During other seasons, the two
samples are not totally different but are not sufficiently close to draw
conclusions.
The following graphs present the average load profile of the customers
taken from metering data. For each metered interval period, the
average load (kW) was calculated and graphed in the midpoint of the
interval period. The profiles are not standardised and therefore
represent actual average load / generation.
Figure 20: Average Summer Load
Page 22
Figure 21: Average Summer Generation Profile and Probability
Although the estimated average inverter capacity of currently installed

PVs in the WPN is estimated to be 1.92kW, the generation estimates
presented are too low to be generated by an average this high. For the
purpose of comparison, the average capacity of the PV sample is
assumed to be 1.0kW (~80% average daily maximum efficiency).
5.5
Comparison of Results
The following graph compares the standardised summer profiles
obtained from the four methods.
Figure 22: Comparison of Standardised PV profiles
The graph demonstrates that all four methods produce similar results
with regard to shape and timing around the peak. The four however
have differing shapes and timings for morning start and evening finish.
Page 23
5.6
Behavioural Changes
Preliminary results (2011) obtained from metering data in the PSC trial
region suggest behavioural change in the evening. This behavioural
change is not expected to be limited to the PSC trial region, and was
an expected response to the net feed in tariff which was suspended in
July 2011. This section aims to explore and explain the reasons for
behavioural changes however further work is required to understand
behavioural change and its impacts as a result of PV's over the longer
term.
5.6.1
Base Case
Figure 23 shows a standard annual customer profile developed using
the median residential customer energy consumption (3,600 kWh p.a.)
compared to an annual average generation profile for a 1.8kW PV
array. A third profile is displayed, being the standard consumption
profile minus the average generation profile. Figure 24 and Figure 25
display the energy and bill implications of these profiles.
Figure 23: Standard Annual Customer Profile
Page 24
Figure 24: 2012 Annual Energy Implications
5.6.2
Figure 25: 2012 Annual Bill Implications
Behavioural Change Scenarios

To test the cost implications of behavioural changes, 8 alternative
scenarios have been created. In each case, the customers load at
time of peak has been shifted towards the time of day the PV is
generating while holding energy consumption (kWh) constant. The
scenarios are graphed in Figure 26 and the customer bill implications
are graphed in Figure 27.
Page 25
Figure 26: Adjusted Annual Customer profiles
Figure 27: Annual Electricity bill for PV to Peak Load Shift
The results of Figure 27 indicate that the two differing schemes for
buying solar generated energy produce very different incentives for
customers. Under the 47c/kWh feed-in tariff, customers have an
incentive to reduce consumption during the day, by transferring their
load to the morning or evening. Under the 7c REBS, customers have
an incentive to maximise consumption during the day, by transferring
their load from the morning or evening to the middle of the day.
Page 26
5.6.3
Summary
The majority of customers that are represented in the PSC trial PV
system sample would have qualified for the feed-in tariff. The increase
in evening peak recorded on this group is therefore likely explained by
the incentive to shift load. Since the feed in tariff is now removed,
further changes to customer behaviour are more likely to benefit
Western Power by potentially reducing peak load rather than
increasing it.
5.7
Network Charges and Peak Load

Peak load determines the requirement for network augmentation. This
event usually occurs during summer. Figure 28 presents the average
profile for summer alone. On the peak summer day, the customer load
is higher than the load on an average summer day.
Figure 28: Standard Summer Customer Profile
Scenario
Est.PeakLoad
TimeofPeak
(kW)3
WithoutPV
WithPV
1.51
1.48
NetworkCharge
(fromfig20)
6:15PM $380.16
7:15PM $279.11
NetworkCharge
perPeakkW
$251.58
$188.50
Both customer groups are estimated to have a similar peak load;

however the contribution to network costs is not similar between the
two groups.
The peak load values presented are not representative of Western Power average values
and are included simply to demonstrate the estimated impact of PVs on residential demand
and related consequences.
Page 27
6
6.1
Results and analysis

Effect of PV on the WPN Summer Peak Day
This section summarises the key results of a forecast with and without
PV system generation, for the peak load demand day on the WPN
over the AA3 period.
6.1.1
2012 Peak Year
Figure 29: 2012 System Load Estimate
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
2012EstimatedSummerProfilewithoutPVs
3,941.30
ProfileminusPSCMeteredSummer
ProfileminusWPNMeteredSummer
ProfileminusSimulatedPVDataLoadon10PeakDays
ProfileminusPVSaturationTrial
3,893.87
3,881.41
3,889.02
3,873.51
Page 28
1.20%
1.52%
1.33%
1.72%
PeakLoadTime
4:15 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
6.1.2
2014 Peak Year
Scenario
PeakLoad
6.1.3
Reduction
4,208.01
4,134.31
4,114.71
4,126.68
4,102.28
1.75%
2.22%
1.93%
2.51%
PeakLoadTime
4:15 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
2017 Peak Year
Page 29
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
4,584.49
4,472.61
4,438.18
4,457.07
2.44%
3.19%
2.78%
4:15 PM
5:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4,428.78
3.40%
5:45 PM
6.1.4
Summary Output
When assessing the impact on system peak demand, the four differing
methods produce very similar results. The table below summarises the
average impact and the recommended adjustments to system peak
forecasts.
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
6.2
PVCapacity(MW)
243
299
357
414
472
ForecastPeak(MW)
PeakReduction(MW)
4,093.09
4,208.01
4,324.27
4,438.31
4,584.49
72.26
88.52
105.36
121.90
135.33
PeakReduction(%)
1.77%
2.10%
2.44%
2.75%
2.95%
Effect of PV on Substation Peak Loads

This section summarises the key results of a forecast with and without
PV generation, for the peak load demand day on several substations.
6.2.1
Distribution of PV Systems
PV systems are distributed widely over the WPN. At currently, the
penetration of PV systems are most dense in mid-outer Perth suburbs
as shown in Figure 32.
Page 30
Figure 32: September 2011 PV penetration of the Perth Metro region.
Page 31
The top 8 substations by number of PV systems connected in 2011 is

listed below. The estimated capacity at February 2011 assumes the
distribution of PVs amongst substations remains constant but is
reduced by the difference between September and February totals.
Substation
MH Mandurah
CVE Canningvale
PBY Padbury
LDE Landsdale
RTN Riverton
WNO Wanneroo
G
Gosnells
WAI Waikiki
RO
Rockingham
NB
NorthBeach
Sept2011Count
3507
2397
2351
2315
2294
2275
2155
2013
1779
1768
Sept2011Est.
Feb2011Est.
Capacity(kW)
Capacity(kW)
6,733.44
3,407.71
4,602.24
2,329.14
4,513.92
2,284.44
4,444.80
2,249.46
4,404.48
2,229.05
4,368.00
2,210.59
4,137.60
2,093.99
3,864.96
1,956.01
3,415.68
1,728.63
3,394.56
1,717.95
For each of these substations, the impact of PV systems has been

calculated at the time the substation peaks. Each of the substation
actual loads was already affected by PVs so the PV profiles estimate
what would have occurred should the PVs not have been there.
6.2.2
Mandurah Substation
Figure 33: Mandurah Substation
Page 32
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
Actual2011PeakProfile
78.92
ProfileplusPSCMeteredSummer
ProfileplusWPNMeteredSummer
ProfileplusSimulatedPVDataLoadon10PeakDays
79.74
79.96
79.82
1.04%
1.32%
1.15%
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
ProfileplusPVSaturationTrial
80.10
1.50%
4:45 PM
6.2.3
Canningvale Substation
Figure 34: Canningvale Substation
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
75.38
76.62
76.73
76.69
1.65%
1.78%
1.74%
3:15 PM
3:15 PM
3:15 PM
3:15 PM
76.85
1.95%
3:15 PM
Page 33
6.2.4
Padbury Substation
Figure 35: Padbury Substation
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
74.98
74.90
74.98
74.98
0.11%
0.00%
0.00%
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
74.98
0.00%
7:45 PM
6.2.5
Landsdale Substation
Figure 36: Landsdale Substation
Page 34
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
66.35
66.63
66.80
66.71
0.42%
0.69%
0.55%
5:15 PM
5:15 PM
5:15 PM
5:15 PM
66.88
0.80%
5:15 PM
6.2.6
Riverton Substation
Figure 37: Riverton Substation
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
55.86
55.72
55.93
55.89
0.25%
0.11%
0.05%
6:45 PM
6:45 PM
6:15 PM
6:45 PM
55.91
0.08%
6:15 PM
Page 35
6.2.7
Wanneroo Substation
Figure 38: Wanneroo Substation
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
86.15
86.07
86.15
86.15
0.09%
0.00%
0.00%
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
7:45 PM
86.15
0.00%
7:45 PM
6.2.8
Gosnells Substation
Figure 39: Gosnells Substation
Page 36
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
69.37
69.87
70.01
69.93
0.72%
0.92%
0.80%
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
4:45 PM
70.10
1.05%
4:45 PM
6.2.9
Waikiki Substation
Figure 40: Waikiki Substation
Scenario
PeakLoad
Reduction
PeakLoadTime
44.74
44.66
44.85
44.80
0.17%
0.25%
0.14%
6:15 PM
6:15 PM
6:15 PM
6:15 PM
44.83
0.21%
6:15 PM
6.2.10
Substation Summary
The impact of high PV installations on substation peak loads varies
widely depending on the time of the substation peak.
In cases where the load on the substation is primarily residential, the
impact of high PV installations has a negligible impact on substation
peak load. The impact is minimal because most substations that cater
for a primarily residential load peak late in the day when PV generation
is small or zero. On these residential substations, the impact on peak
could be either positive or negative depending on the related
behavioural changes.
Page 37
In cases where the load on the substation is a mix of commercial and

residential with a peak time closer to the middle of the day, PVs are
generating at their greatest. As seen in the case of Canningvale, the
impacts of PVs on these substations can be substantial.
Substations that have a high concentration of PVs and a mix of
residential and commercial customers should be identified for further
study and careful consideration when forecasting. In future, System
forecast may need to develop geospatial forecasts of PV penetration
specifically to identify locations where PV systems may reduce the
local zone substation peak.
Given that PV penetration was relatively low in February 2011 and
many more applications have and will be received, the impacts on
some substations could become much larger than the impact on
system peak.
Page 38
Conclusion
This report aimed to describe the impacts of PV systems installed in
residential premises across the Western Power Network, and to
quantify the impact of PV systems on system and substation peaks.
Numerous methods were developed to model the consumption
changes associated with the installation of PVs. Some of the models
are purely technical, whereas others allow for consumer behavioural
changes. Although there were some variations, all four models
resulted in similar profiles.
At the system level, it is apparent that the forecast increase in PV
penetration will result in a peak load reduction, as much as 2.95% by
2017.
In summer, substations with a mix of both residential and commercial
customers that peak during the day are expected to have peaks much
lower. Although the quantity is not specified, this peak reduction will
increase with greater PV system penetration.
In summer, substations with a primarily residential customer base are
expected to have similar peaks with or without the PVs. Although not
specified, any increase in PV penetration is unlikely to affect this
outcome.
There will also be numerous substations that fall between the two
above mentioned categories that will have some peak demand
impacts from PV system. It is this group of substations in particular, for
which the time of the peak will shift later in the day.
Page 39
Future Directions
It is unrealistic to forecast that future PV installations will be located in
the same location as current PVs. It is also unrealistic that PV
applications will persist in a linear trend. Western Power will need a
geospatial diffusion forecast model to assess the future impact on
feeders and substations. The model would need to incorporate the
changing financial models for residential and commercial installations.
Without such a model, the future uptake of PVs with a substation or
feeder catchment is difficult to predict, meaning the future impact on
that piece of equipment is difficult to predict.
The peak load reduction is greatest where there is a mix of both
residential and business customers. As such, Western Power could
explore network designs that incorporate this mix at the feeder and
substation level. Doing so may defer the need for some network
augmentation.
Western Power must continue to monitor the impact of behavioural
changes associated with financial incentives as these have the
potential to affect the network substantially.
Western Power must continue to maintain a database of known PVs
installed in both residential and business premises. Particular attention
should be paid to business premises at this point in time as they have
the biggest potential to affect peak demand forecasts.
Recommendation
Timing
Developageospatialdiffusionforecastmodel
DevelopandmaintainalistofallknownbusinessPVinstallations
Continuetomonitorbehaviouralchangesassociatedwithfinancialincentives
Explorenetworkconfigurationsthatincorporateamixofresidentialand
commercialcustomersasawayofdeferringnetworkaugmentation.
Considerin2012/13
Considerin2012/13
Ongoing
Page 40
Ongoing

Study On The Impact of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation On Peak Demand

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TITLE:

Study on the impact of Photovoltaic (PV) generation

Nigel Wilmot, Alan Lark

DATE FOR NEXT REVIEW:

Network Planning and Development Branch | Networks Division

Western Power 2011-2012

PV Applications and Capacity Forecast .........................................................8

Estimating PV Output .....................................................................................11

Results and analysis ......................................................................................28

Future Directions ............................................................................................40

As of December 2011, there are approximately 93,914 PV

The average PV system capacity is trending upwards from an

The introduction and then pending removal of the State

Preliminary results (2011) obtained within the Perth Solar

PV systems are estimated to have reduced the 2011 system

The impact of PVs on substation peak load is highly

The impact of PVs on the 2011 substation peaks may be as

In aggregate, continued growth in the number of PV systems is

Description of data relating to the impact of photovoltaic

Analysis of the impact of PV systems on the system and

The information contained in this document is useful for informing

the number of PV systems installed;

trends in the average capacity of household PV systems.

differences in energy consumption patterns across households

comparison of standardised load profiles across households

an assessment of associated change in daily net electricity

Based on this analysis, Western Power has forecast PV take-up rates

PV Applications and Capacity Forecast

Figure 1: Monthly PV Applications

Since government subsidies have been reduced, take-up rates have

Low Forecast: 1,300 PV systems per month

Mid-Range Forecast: 2,000 PV systems per month

Based on a reduced and moderate applications;

Based on the longer term applications;

High Forecast: 3,000 PV systems per month.

Based on the more recent higher applications;

Processed Applications ('000s)

Figure 2: Forecast of approved PV applications

At this early stage of adoption, Western Power is not sure on the

Trend Increase in Average PV System

Average 1.2 kW System based on Australian

May 2009 June 2010

Average 1.5 kW System based on Office of Energy

June 2010 Jan 2011

Average 1.8 kW System based on info provided on Net

Jan 2011 June 2011

Average 2.2 kW System based on info provided on Net

Assumed continuation of 2.2 kW average from the Jan

Average System Size (MW)

Average System Size (kW)

Approved capacity (Estimated MW)

Figure 3: Forecast of installed PV generation capacity

The forecast of installed PV generation capacity is derived by the

Simulated PV generation output capacity

PV systems are installed at 22.6 degrees to the horizontal,

the orientation of the PV systems is assumed to be evenly

standard deviation of 60 degrees. For maximum PV output, the

high case (average output values experienced during summer);

mid case (average output values experienced over the year);

low case (average output values experienced during winter);

Figure 4: Daily PV generation average output capacity per PV unit

Actual Load Results from PV Saturation Trial

Figure 5: PV Saturation Trial Average Standardised Generation Profiles