International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

www.elsevier.com/locate/ijfatigue

Fatigue life prediction based on variable amplitude

testsspecific applications
Thomas Svenssona, Par Johannessona,*, Jacques de Marea,b
a

Fraunhofer Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE 412 88 Goteborg, Sweden
b
Mathematical Statistics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE 412 96 Goteborg, Sweden
Received 21 July 2004; received in revised form 31 August 2004; accepted 18 November 2004

Abstract
Three engineering components have been tested with both constant amplitude loading and with different load spectra and the results are
analysed by means of a new evaluation method. The method relies on the Palmgren-Miner hypothesis, but offers the opportunity to approve
the hypothesis validity by narrowing the domain of its application in accordance with a specific situation. In the first case automotive spot
weld components are tested with two different synthetic spectra and the result is extrapolated to new service spectra. In the second case, the
fatigue properties of a rock drill component are analysed both by constant amplitude tests and by spectrum tests and the two reference test sets
are compared. In the third case, butt welded mild steel is analysed with respect to different load level crossing properties and different
irregularity factors.
q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Cumulative fatigue; Confidence limits; Life prediction; Model errors

1. Introduction

the Palmgren-Miner rule

Fatigue life assessment in industrial applications involve

a lot of sources of uncertainty such as material strength,
notch geometries, defect contents and residual stresses.
Often, these uncertainties are substantial enough to prevent
detailed analysis of the fatigue phenomenon as such, and
thereby, force the designer to base the assessment on the
global behaviour of the component in question, i.e. from an
experimental Wohler curve.
When components are subjected to variable amplitude
service loads, additional uncertainties arise; how is the
loading in laboratory tests related to the loads that could be
expected to appear in service? Traditionally this problem is
solved by using the simplifying assumption of damage
accumulation, and constant amplitude tests in laboratory
are transformed to variable amplitude severity by

DZ

* Corresponding author. Tel.: C31 772 4295; fax: C31 772 4260.
E-mail address: par.johannesson@fcc.chalmers.se (P. Johannesson).

0142-1123/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2004.11.010

m
X
ni
N
iZ1 i

which says that a load cycle with amplitude Si adds to the

cumulative damage D, a quantity (1/Ni). Here, Ni denotes
the fatigue life under constant amplitude loading with
amplitude Si and ni is the number of load cycles at this
amplitude. The lack of validity of this accumulation rule has
been demonstrated in many applications and in consequence
its usage will introduce uncertainties which must be
compensated for by safety factors, see for instance [14].
One possible way to diminish the deviations from the
damage accumulation rule is to perform the laboratory
experiments closer to the service behaviour with respect to
the loads. A method for establishing a Wohler curve based
on variable amplitude loads has recently been developed
and is presented in a parallel paper [5].
The use of this method should be customised to each
specific application by performing laboratory tests with load
spectra covering different service requirements. One idea is
that service measurements are used to establish a few
reference load spectra for use in laboratory tests. Based
on the resulting variable amplitude Wohler curve, fatigue

T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

life can be predicted for load spectra similar to the

reference types.
Three different components, each with a specific set of
load spectra, were investigated. (1) Spot welded components from an automotive application were subjected to
spectra of different types, two synthetic spectra and one
from an automotive proving ground. (2) Suspension arms
from rock drilling machines were subjected to a large
number of load spectra with varying irregularity and mean
values, all created from field measurements. (3) Welded
specimens of mild steel were subjected to four different load
spectra, created in the purpose of studying the effect of
irregularity and spectrum type.
All three applications were investigated with respect to
the new method for establishing a variable amplitude
Wohler curve. Fatigue life tests were performed and the new
method was compared to damage accumulation assessment
based on constant amplitude tests. It was found that the
prediction errors diminish when constant amplitude reference curves are replaced by curves based on reference
spectra. In addition, the influences of irregularity, mean
values, and spectrum type are discussed.

2. Estimating material fatigue properties

from variable amplitude tests
The traditional Palmgren-Miner method is adjusted here
for more accurate life predictions. The theory is evaluated in
a parallel paper [5] and is summarized here: The variable
amplitude load is described as a spectrum of load
amplitudes, calculated by for instance Rain Flow Count
and discretized into m load amplitudes Si with corresponding relative frequency of occurrence, ni:
fni ; Si ; i Z 1; 2; .; mg:

(1)

The Wohler curve is described in the form

N a,SKb
eq
where a and b are material parameters and Seq is the damage
equivalent load amplitude for the actual load spectrum
defined as
"
#1=b
m
X
b
n i Si
:
Seq Z
iZ1

967

The primary aim of the laboratory test is to estimate the

material parameters a and b, which is straightforward in the
case of constant amplitude tests. However, model (2) is
nonlinear in the parameter b since the equivalent load Seq,j
depends on b. This complication is solved in [5] by using the
maximum-likelihood method. From each experiment, we
can then find the estimated parameters, denoted a^ and b^
from any set of spectrum tests.
This method thereby estimates parameters for a certain
set of spectrum test results, and the choice of reference
spectra and the amount of extrapolation in a specific
application can be chosen with respect to engineering
judgements.

3. Statistical evaluation of test results

The results from the new estimation procedure can be
evaluated in detail using standard statistical tools. Except
the parameter estimates, one also obtains an estimate of the
^ Z s2 , and
variance of the random property 3; Var3
uncertainties in parameters, estimated lives, and predicted
lives can be evaluated. In particular, prediction intervals can
be calculated for a single spectrum prediction or for a group
of predictions giving the possibility to judge if there are
systematic deviations from the damage accumulation rule or
if the deviation may be a result of randomness.
Here, we will study mainly two questions about the
cumulative damage results. The first is an extension of the
usual question: Can fatigue life be predicted for a spectrum
result if the material properties are estimated from constant
amplitude tests? Here, this question can be extended thus:
Can fatigue life be predicted for a certain spectrum result if
the material properties are estimated from other spectra, and
how close should the reference spectra be to the prediction
situation?
A second question is sometimes raised in view of
spectrum fatigue test results: is the exponent b different for
different types of spectra or can it be regarded as a pure
component property?
The first question can be studied with the following
property
Nrel Z

Nf
;
Npred

(3)

The corresponding statistical model for the fatigue test is

ln Nj Z ln a K b ln Seq;j C 3j ;

j Z 1; 2; .; n

(2)

where n specimens have been tested, each at the equivalent

load amplitude Seq,j resulting in the fatigue life Nj. The
randomness due to the specimen strength is described by the
independent additive random variables 3j, each assumed to
follow the Gaussian distribution
3j wN0; s2 ; j Z 1; 2; .; n:

i.e. the relative life described as the experimental life Nf

compared to the predicted life, Npred. By the methodology
developed in [5], one can calculate prediction limits for this
property, either for a single prediction or for the geometric
mean of several predictions. If such prediction limits cover
unity, the Palmgren-Miner rule cannot be rejected, but the
mean deviation may be explained by random behaviour.
Throughout this paper we will use 95% confidence and
prediction limits, which means that if the test procedure

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T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

was repeated a large number of times, 95% of the intervals

would cover the true value.
The second question can be evaluated by studying the
differences between exponents. Assume that the parameters
{a1, b1} and {a2, b2} have been estimated from two
different sets of fatigue test results and that one wants to
check if the exponents b1 and b2 differ significantly. The
variance of the difference is

s212



1
2 1
^
^
^
^
Z Varb1 K b2  Z Varb1  C Varb2  Z s
C
q1 q2


n K 2s21 C n2 K 2s22 1
1
C
z 1
4
q1 q2
n1 C n2 K 4

where we have assumed that the two data sets are

independent and that the variance of the random variable
3 is the same in both experiments; s2. The approximation
indicates that we use the estimated standard deviations s1
and s2 from each set of test result. The number of
specimens in each test are n1 and n2 respectively, and the
quantities q1 and q2 depend on which spectra that have
been used in the different tests. Their expressions are
quite complex and are not given here, but is defined in the
parallel paper [5].

4. Three applications
The method has been applied to three different
engineering problems, namely one related to automotive
applications, testing spot welds, one dealing with service
loads on suspension arms for a rock drill rig, and one
studying welded mild steel. All three applications focus on
engineering components expected to contain defects large
enough to support an assumption that crack growth is the
dominating damage mechanism. Consequently, the linear
damage accumulation concept is quite plausible.

Fig. 1. Load spectra used for the spot welded specimens.

4.2. Load spectra

In all applications, tests have been performed both at
constant amplitude (CA) and at variable amplitude (VA)
loading. In the variable amplitude case, blocks of load
cycles have been applied, and each block has been repeated
until failure. The life is measured as the number of
individual load cycles until failure. The load spectra are
described by means of their Rain Flow Count spectra (1) and
their block length. In Fig. 11, parts of the sample paths are
shown and in Figs. 13 the spectra are illustrated. In each
diagram the x-axis shows how large a proportion of the load
ranges exceeds the corresponding y-axis range value. For
additional characterisation of the load spectra, we also
define the irregularity factor I and the load ratio R

IZ

#fup K crossings of the mean levelg

S
and R Z min
#flocal maximag
Smax

4.1. Laboratory test

All three application tests were performed in servohydraulic test machines in laboratory environment. The load
signals were monitored during the tests and their deviations
from the target signal were found negligible. The specimen
for the spot weld application consisted of two 1-mm thick
steel sheets connected with one spot weld with nominal
diameter 5.6 mm, see [6] for further details. The welded
specimen consisted of two steel plates, 10-mm thick and
30-mm wide, welded together by a transversal butt weld.
The suspension arms were cast steel components, hardened
and tempered. They were subjected to a combination of
tensile and bending stresses with the highest stresses at the
quite rough surface.

Fig. 2. Load spectra used for the suspension arm.

T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

969

Table 2
Suspension arm spectra

Fig. 3. Load spectra used for the butt welded specimens.

where the # symbol denotes the number of events, and Smin

and Smin are the global load minimum and maximum
respectively.
The spot weld application uses three different variable
amplitude load signals, two synthetic spectra denoted
linear and Gaussian, referring to their level crossing
properties. The third signal is condensed from a test track at
an automotive proving ground. All three spectra are scaled
to give different equivalent load amplitudes. They are
illustrated in Fig. 1 and their properties are summarized in
Table 1. Constant amplitude tests have been performed at
three different load ratios, 10 specimens at RZK1, 7 at
RZ0.1, and 12 at RZ0.5.
For the suspension arm application, 11 different load
spectra have been extracted from service measurements. All
measured time signals are filtered by rain flow count
filtering in order to be able to perform laboratory tests in
reasonable time. They have also been scaled in such a way
that the maximum load in each spectrum reflects the
capacity of the actual testing machine. The resulting spectra
have block lengths ranging from 122 to 4271 cycles. Their
irregularity factors range from 0.35 to 1 and their load ratio
from K1 to K0.6 (Table 2). In Fig. 2, the cycle contents of
all 11 spectra are illustrated. Constant amplitude tests were
performed with eight specimens at the load ratio RZK1.
For the last application, the butt welded joints, four different
synthetic spectra are used. They represent two different level
crossing distributions, called concave and convex, each
applied at two different irregularity factors, IZ0.5 and IZ0.99.

Name

Block length

Number of spec.

Spect 1
Spect 7
Spect 8
Spect 9
Spect 10
Spect 11
Spect 12
Spect 13
Spect 14
Spect 15
Spect 16

166
122
232
293
957
835
4271
337
124
962
146

K0.7
K1
K1
K0.7
K0.6
K0.6
K0.6
K1
K1
K1
K1

1.00
0.35
0.76
0.97
0.88
0.56
0.58
1.00
0.85
0.99
0.99

1
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
1
4

Each type of spectrum is scaled and translated in different ways

giving different R-ratios. Illustrations are in Fig. 3 and properties
in Table 3. Constant amplitude tests have been performed with
10 specimens at RZ0.
4.3. Results
The results from the analysis are given in different ways.
The main idea behind the developed method is to estimate the
Wohler curve using a pre-chosen set of experimental results,
and then use this result for predictions including prediction
intervals for 95% probability of coverage. In our three
applications, this is demonstrated by using a certain set of
the experimental results for estimation, the estimate set, and
another set for check of predictions, the validation set. By
comparing the results from the validation set with the
prediction limits one can judge if the damage accumulation
theory is valid, or if systematic differences can be detected.
This is done in two ways: (i) by including both sets in figures,
and (ii) by checking if the prediction intervals for the geometric
mean of the relative life, N^ rel , cover the observed value.
In each figure the experimental results from the
estimation set are illustrated as triangles and the results
from the validation experiments as dots. The estimated
Wohler curve is a solid line, the 95% confidence band for
this curve is dashdot lines and the 95% prediction band is
given as dashed lines.
4.3.1. Spot welds
For the automotive application with spot welds the two
synthetic spectra can be considered as reference spectra for
determining the fatigue properties, replacing the ordinary
Table 3
Butt weld spectra

Table 1
Spot weld spectra
Name

Block length

Number of spec.

Gaussian
Linear
Test track

66,667
66,667
914

0
0
K1

0.99
0.79
0.83

7
5
7

Name

Block length

Number of spec.

Concave
Concave
Convex
Convex

96,000
96,000
96,000
96,000

0.99
0.5
0.99
0.5

9
8
9
8

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T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

Table 4
Estimated parameters for the spot weld case
Estimation set
Constant amplitude, all
Constant amplitude, RO0
Linear and Gaussian

a^
6

3.8!10
4.0!106
9.3!106

b^

4.15
4.75
6.09

0.60
0.41
0.27

Table 5
Estimated relative life for spot weld predictions

Fig. 4. Wohler curve for spot welds. The estimation set is linear and
Gaussian spectra and the validation set is the proving ground spectrum.
Confidence and prediction bands for the curve are included.

constant amplitude reference tests. The results are then used

to predict the Test track spectrum tests. The result is
illustrated in Fig. 4 and as a comparison the result from
using constant amplitude as reference is shown in Fig. 5. It
can be seen in the figures that the predictions fall well within
the 95% prediction limits and both methods seem to be
useful. However, the uncertainty around the Wohler curve
based on constant amplitude tests is much larger, and
thereby, demands larger safety factors. The parameter
estimates in the three cases are given in Table 4 where it
is seen that the estimated standard deviation is considerably
larger for the constant amplitude cases.
We next turn to the question if there is a significant
systematic deviation in the predictions. This is not expected
for the three actual analyses since the figures suggest that

Estimation set

N^ rel

95% prediction interval

Constant amplitude, all

Constant amplitude, RO0
Linear and Gaussian

0.92
1.22
1.19

[0.56; 1.51]
[0.84; 1.76]
[0.91; 1.56]

the predictions fall well within the 95% limits. However, a

more objective answer can be obtained by formally testing
the simultaneous prediction results using the relative life
property (3). The results from such an analysis is shown in
Table 5.
The prediction intervals all cover unity and no significant
deviations from the Palmgren-Miner rule can be detected.
Finally, we ask the question if there is a significant
difference in slopes for the Wohler curve estimates. The
result using procedure (4) is for all CA-tests compared to the
Linear/Gaussian combination
bC K bLG Z 1:94G1:66 95%:
The interval does not cover zero, which means that there
is a significant difference in slopes. The same calculation for
the CA-tests with positive load ratios compared to the
Linear/Gaussian combination gives
bC;RO0 K bLG Z 1:34G1:25 95%:
This interval does not cover zero either, which means
that even with the restriction to positive load ratios the
significant difference remains.

Fig. 5. Wohler curve for spot welds. The estimation set is constant
amplitude with RO0 and the validation set is the proving ground spectrum.
Confidence and prediction bands for the curve are included.

4.3.2. Suspension arm

For the rock drill application, a large number of spectra
have been used and a specific reference set was not defined
beforehand. One possible way to compare the constant
amplitude reference with a spectrum reference is to use the
two spectra with the highest and lowest equivalent loads,
respectively. These are the two spectra denoted spect 16 and
spect 12 in Table 2, and these spectra also have been
replicated. The results are then used to predict the rest of the
spectrum tests. The result is illustrated in Fig. 6 and as a
comparison the result from using constant amplitude as
estimation set is shown in Fig. 7. The parameter estimates in
the two cases are given in Table 6.
Is there a significant systematic deviation in the
predictions? This seems to be the case when the constant
amplitude tests are used as reference according to Fig. 7.

T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

971

Table 7
Estimated relative life for suspension arm predictions
Estimation set

N^ rel

95% prediction interval

Constant amplitude
Spectra 12 and 16

0.36
0.76

[0.17; 0.73]
[0.35; 1.69]

The difference between the slopes for the two Wohler

curve estimates is estimated at
bC K bS Z 0:79G1:99 95%
which clearly covers zero and is far from significant.

Fig. 6. Wohler curve for suspension arm. The estimation set is spectra 12
and 16 and the validation set is the other spectra. Confidence and prediction
bands for the curve are included.

4.3.3. Butt welds

For the butt weld specimens four spectra have been used
which originally were constructed to test the PalmgrenMiner rule [7]. Here it is interesting to see if one type of
spectra can be predicted by the other or if the irregularity
factor influences the prediction results. The results are
illustrated in Figs. 810.
The parameter estimates in the three cases are given in
Table 8.
Is there a significant systematic deviation in the
predictions? This seem to be the case according to Figs. 8
and 9. The results from formal tests using the relative life
property (3) are shown in Table 9.
Both intervals are far from unity and significant
systematic deviations are detected.
The difference between the slopes for the two first
Wohler curve estimates is
bC K bConcave Z K0:37G1:82 95%
where no statistical significant difference can be detected.

Fig. 7. Wohler curve for suspension arms. The estimation set is constant
amplitude and the validation set is the other spectra. Confidence and
prediction bands for the curve are included.

The results from formal tests using the relative life property
(3) is shown in Table 7.
No significant deviations from the Palmgren-Miner
rule can be detected when spectra 12 and 16 are used
as reference, but predictions based on the constant
amplitude reference show significantly nonconservative
results.
Table 6
Estimated parameters for the suspension arm case
Estimation set
Constant amplitude
Spectra 12 and 16

a^
14

25!10
0.15!1014

b^

3.93
3.14

0.56
0.67

Fig. 8. Wohler curve for butt welds. The estimation set is the convex spectra
and the validation set is the concave spectra. Confidence and prediction
bands for the curve are included.

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T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

Table 8
Estimated parameters for the butt weld case
Estimation set
Constant amplitude
Convex
Concave

a^
15

1.6!10
8.4!1015
4.9!1015

b^

4.19
4.56
4.29

0.35
0.52
0.42

Table 9
Estimated relative life for the butt weld predictions

Fig. 9. Wohler curve for butt welds. The estimation set is constant
amplitude and the validation set is the concave spectra. Confidence and
prediction bands for the curve are included.

5. Discussion
The three different applications show different results in
this analysis, which makes it difficult to draw any overall
conclusions about the use of the Palmgren-Miner rule. The
primary aim of this work is not to make thorough analyses
of each specific application, but rather to present some tools
for such an analysis. Therefore, we only give some overall
comments to the different cases.
5.1. Spot welds
In this case, it seems to be an advantage to use the
spectrum laboratory tests for determining the material
properties. The scatter diminishes compared to the CA
reference case and the predictions for the test track

Fig. 10. Wohler curve for butt welds. The estimation set is the spectra with
IZ0.99 and the validation set is the spectra with IZ0.5. Confidence and
prediction bands for the curve are included.

Estimation set

N^ rel

95% prediction interval

Constant amplitude
Convex

1.86
2.66

[1.24; 2.78]
[1.82; 3.89]

spectrum show no systematic errors. We here compared

the spectrum reference method with CA at three different
load ratios, which may be seen unfair to the CA case.
However, the prediction set was actually subjected to the
global load ratio RZK1, but the reference spectra were
applied at zero load ratio. In [6,8] it is concluded that
constant amplitude at zero load ratio is a good reference test
for spot welds, and as can be seen from our results the
scatter is diminished by excluding the results from CA,
RZK1. Of course, when many different types of tests are
available, one can always find the best combination for a
certain result, but in practice, this situation is not often at
hand. It would then be good to use reference spectra as close
to the application as possible to avoid systematic errors.
There is a significant difference in slopes for the spot
weld case, which should be further investigated to look for
physical explanations.
5.2. Suspension arm
In this case, the flexibility of the new method has been
utilized by applying several different spectra for the
experiments. In our analysis, we have chosen to compare
the constant amplitude reference to a two spectra reference
set. Here, we see a clear difference in the ability of
predicting other spectrum tests, since the CA reference
gives significantly nonconservative results, in contrast to
the VA reference. This result could be explained by the fact
that the CA tests are performed at quite high load levels and
that the predictions are mainly extrapolations with respect to
the equivalent load. However, the VA spectra also include
very high load ranges.
The load ratio influence is not expected to be important in
this application, since all tests are performed with globally
negative load ratios, within the interval R2[K1;K0.55].
However, in the irregular sequences, the mean value
influence may be important, since many small cycles then
have positive load ratios. Further investigations into this
problem are planned.

T. Svensson et al. / International Journal of Fatigue 27 (2005) 966973

973

From the two industrial applications, one can conclude that it

is possible to find spectrum tests that diminish the scatter
around the estimated Wohler curve but are still valid for
predictions without systematic errors. The result of such a
procedure could lower the safety factors due to better
precision.
Statistical confidence and prediction intervals are very
useful here. Combinations of arbitrary spectrum tests can be
tested for systematic errors. Thereby, it is possible to
rigorously investigate influences from mean values, irregularity, residual stresses, spectrum type, and other factors.
The method gives a choice for the engineer: use all possible
spectra for estimation and accept large safety factors, or choose
a reference set of spectra that can be judged to comply with the
specific application, giving more accurate predictions.
Acknowledgements
Fig. 11. Sample paths from loads of the three different applications.

No significant difference can here be detected between

the CA and the VA slopes.
5.3. Butt welds
In the butt weld case the spectra were constructed with the
intention to test the Palmgren-Miner rule and not for a specific
service application. The results also clearly show systematic
deviations when predicting the concave spectrum, both when
using CA reference and using the convex reference. This result
shows that the question that should be asked is not whether
constant amplitude or spectrum tests as reference should be
used, but rather how to find reference spectra that are close
enough to the applications to give reasonable predictions.
The large differences between the convex and concave
spectra cannot be seen in Fig. 3, since this only describes the
cycle contents. The differences are more pronounced in the
level crossing properties, reflecting the tendency that small
cycles in the convex time histories have large mean levels
than the concave ones. These results would be very
interesting to analyse further for studying mean level
influences on individual cycles.
The irregularity factor does not seem not to be very
influential in this case as can be seen from Fig. 10, but
the large scatter due to the spectrum type influence makes
this judgement uncertain.

6. Conclusions
The newly developed tool for estimating the Wohler curve
from arbitrary sets of spectrum tests has proved useful.

This work was done in close cooperation with Kenneth

Weddfeldt at Atlas Copco Rock Drills, Hans-Fredrik
Henrysson at Volvo Cars, and Erland Johnson at SP, the
Swedish National Testing and Research Institute. The project
was also funded by Bombardier Transportation, Sandvik
Materials and Technology, and the Swedish foundation for
applied mathematics (STM).
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