Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Government of India
HANDBOOK
Energy Division
NITI Aayog
Government of India
August 2015
Disclaimer
It should be noted that the IESS, 2047 pla orm does not 'recommend' or 'prefer' any one scenario or
pathway, or suggest NITI Aayog's view of the energy pathway that India may take un l 2047. It merely
provides the user a way to understand the realm of possible scenarios and their implica ons. However,
these data sets are not purported by NITI Aayog to be a source of authen c Government data. Although,
greatest a en on has been given to using both historical and future data sets from Government sources,
the IESS, 2047 is not intended to be a data base of energy related sectors of India. With respect to costs, it
may be noted that the IESS, 2047 is an energy calculator and not one of costs. The cost implica ons derived
for each pathway are meant to give an indica ve cost of the energy related investments required for each
pathway, which do not include the Infrastructure costs. It may also be noted that the Tool enables users to
subs tute the given data by their own, and build their own pathway. We would appreciate receiving
pathways from users of the IESS, 2047 Version 2.0.
CONTENTS
Foreword
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 01
Preface
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 03
1.2
1.3
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4
2.2 Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3 Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.4 Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.5 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.5.1
2.5.2
2.5.3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.7.1
2.7.2
2.7.3
2.7.4
2.8 Wind
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.8.1
2.8.2
2.9.2
2.11.2
2.11.3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.14.1
2.14.2
2.15 Coal
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.15.1
2.15.2
2.15.3
2.18.2
3.2
FOREWORD
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Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
Energy is among the most important ingredients in any nation's growth recipe. India recognised
this fact early in the process of development and took steps necessary to efficiently deliver energy
in its various forms to its businesses and citizens. The state has played an active role in this sector
via public sector enterprises in coal, oil, gas and power. The high priority that the present
Government accords to this sector is reflected in its announcement early in the term to issue a
new National Energy Policy. The NITI Aayog is privileged to have the opportunity to prepare this
important document.
During 2013-14, the erstwhile Planning Commission had undertaken a major exercise that led to
the creation of the utility India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047 aimed at assessing and
predicting India's energy needs, domestic supplies and imports. The utility was launched in
February 2014 and has been behind several detailed exercises undertaken by numerous entities
within and outside India. The widespread use of the utility has led the team at the NITI Aayog, the
successor institution to the Planning Commission, to refine it in a variety of directions. The result
has been the IESS 2047 2.0. The dedication with which the team and its partners in India and
abroad have worked to create this greatly enhanced version of the original utility is
commendable. Version 2.0 has numerous new features that are described in this document.
As an example, the IESS 2047 2.0 now allows for three GDP growth scenarios of 7.4%, 6.7%, and
5.8% during 2012-47 and offers a range of energy consumption projections. While it is my hope
that India would grow even faster than the top rate of 7.4% built into the utility, the responses of
energy demand and supply to the GDP growth in different sectors it generates make for a rich
analysis of India's energy future.
The Government has announced ambitious developmental targets in the sectors of housing, rural
electrification, renewable energy, assured electricity supply and reduction in oil import
dependence among others. The Ministries are now framing schemes and programmes to
translate the above targets into reality. These targets have been built into the new version of
IESS 2047 2.0 to simulate the associated energy demand, supply and costs under the three growth
scenarios. In turn, the scenarios may be useful to the line ministries in guiding future policy. More
details of the IESS 2047 2.0 including a series of illustrative results are summarized in the main
body of this document.
01
As we embark upon the exercise to prepare the National Energy Policy at the NITI Aayog, we look
forward to using the IESS 2047 2.0 as an important input. The timing of the launch of the utility
could not be better from yet another perspective. The 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is due to take place from 30 November
to 11 December 2015. In preparation towards this conference, participating countries will submit
their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). In this context, the IESS 2047 2.0
may provide critical inputs into determining India's INDCs.
Simulations and scenario building are critical aspects of policy making. But such exercises must be
continuously refined and improved. As such, at the NITI Aayog, we greatly welcome the inputs
from the vast community of researchers and analysts from India and abroad. At the same time, I
hope that researchers and analysts will find the IESS 2047 2.0 utility useful for their own work.
(Arvind Panagariya)
02
PREFACE
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Sindhushree Khullar
Chief Executive Ocer
E-mail : ceo-ni @gov.in
Tel. : 23006575
Fax.: : 23096575
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Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
NITI Aayog has expressly been given the responsibility of encouraging academic research and
networking with research institutions in India and abroad. The India Energy Security Scenarios,
2047 (IESS,2047) is a fine example of the Government joining hands with independent think tanks
in harnessing knowledge in collaboration, with an aim to improve the programmes and policies of
the Government. I am happy that close on the heels of the first version, the Energy Division of the
NITI Aayog has now come out with Version 2.0 in association with its partners.
On the policy front, NITI Aayog will be leading the exercise of proposing a new National Energy
Policy (NEP) for the country. Again, this exercise will envisage networking with a wide range of
private and public institutions. I am sure, IESS 2047 Version 2.0 will under-pin the new policy in a
significant manner. The expertise developed in the process of preparing this Tool will benefit the
Government and our knowledge partners alike. I look forward to the extension of this present
partnership for contribution to the NEP as well.
Another important aspect of NITI Aayog's charter is working as a bridge for close coordination
with the States. The instant Tool is a handy energy demand/supply projection model, particularly
because it disaggregates sectors and identifies distinct levers which impinge on energy pathways.
In light of the above, the exercise is quite amenable to identifying the role of States in advancing
India's energy security. For example, as the Prime Minister has declared a target of achieving 175
GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, the projections can now be further split into ambitions
for resource rich States. Similar exercises could be done for enhancing oil and gas production, coal
production, etc., keeping the concerns of land, grid integration issues of Renewable Energy, Air
Quality etc., in mind. The instant tool is capable of developing the above outputs. I do hope that
our partners will come forward to join hands with NITI Aayog in developing State specific subsectors of IESS 2047.
I commend the efforts of the NITI team and would also like to thank all the knowledge partners in
India and abroad who helped put this Tool together.
(Sindhushree Khullar)
03
011-23096551
anilk.jain@nic.in
Government of India
NATIONAL INSTITUTION FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA
NITI Aayog, Parliament Street
New Delhi-110 001
IESS, 2047 has been created with a shared conviction of NITI Aayog and the energy research
community of the value that intellectual advice adds to energy policy. The above belief has been
proven by the fact that the IESS, 2047 has supported a number of exercises of energy demand
estimation and its implications. This has motivated us to produce the Version 2.0. The latter is not
merely an up-dation of numbers, but a de novo exercise in many ways. A sharper analysis of
demand and supply sectors has been supplemented with new features as have been elaborated
below. The IESS Team also devoted a lot of time on incorporating new features in the website
(www.indiaenergy.gov.in) and webtool that might make the Tool more user-friendly. The above
aspect can only be experienced and not written about. The widespread use of this analysis will be
the true measure of success of this effort. Therefore, only the new analytical additions have been
listed as below:
o Three GDP growth scenarios of 7.4%, 6.7%, and 5.8% in this version enrich the Tool by offering
a range of energy related projections. As elasticity of energy demand varies across demands
sectors, the same has been recognised in this bottom-up exercise.
o The Government has announced ambitious developmental targets in the sectors of housing,
rural electrification, renewable energy, assured electricity supply, reduction in oil import
dependence, among many others. The Ministries are now framing schemes and programmes
to translate the above targets into reality.
targets and developed scenarios of energy demand, supply, costs, etc., around them, which
may be very useful to line Ministries.
o It is evident that a transition to a new energy system requires additional infrastructure which
can come only after fresh capital infusion. Therefore, the scenarios around new energy
pathways proposed by IESS, cannot be evaluated without an assessment of their cost
implications. This version offers a detailed exercise on costing. The tool acknowledges that
cost projection in the long term can only be offered as costs scenarios which is taken into
account by offering a range of cost scenarios till the terminal year of the study.
o We are aware that innovation and technology quickly outpace existing technologies. The
present IESS Version-2.0 boldly brings in hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles, along with a more
aggressive role for solar water heaters and roof top solar as energy supply sources. The above
addition enhances the quality of projections.
04
The new features in the present proposal have been supplemented with fine-tuning of the earlier
modelling exercises. It is appreciated that scenarios depend a lot on the outlook of the modeller,
and inter-model comparisons are difficult to make. However, refining an existing model is always a
welcome exercise, as it indicates that the modeller has tightened his/her assumptions and
acknowledged better outputs from the existing algorithm. This raises the quality of projections. In
the IESS Version 2.0, the team has assumed higher potential of penetration of efficiency in
industries which was earlier modelled around merely BEE's Perform-Achieve-Trade (PAT) scheme.
The team has acknowledged that adoption of Best Available Technologies (BAT) may offer even
better potential results than what is provided in the PAT scheme, and has modified its work on
Industry this time. The housing sector always poses a challenge to energy modellers in
segregating the role of penetration of ECBC, from more efficient lighting/cooling/heating
equipment. The new version incorporates space cooling/heating/lighting assumptions which
overcome the above challenge to some extent. The above two examples demonstrates the added
value proposition in the new effort.
SALIENT RESULTS
On the basis of this nearly yearlong exercise of the team at NITI Aayog and their partners, the
following results are worthy of consideration:
o It has been found that many assumptions of the earlier studies, viz., the Expert Committee
Report of the Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) and of the Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies
for Inclusive Growth (LCIG) are modest in many sectors as compared to the potential
estimated by the IESS. As an illustration, the solar potential indicated in the IEP was merely 10
GW in 2031-32 whereas the present Tool projects it at nearly 100 GW to be achieved with
exceptional efforts by 2022. Similarly, the prospect of deploying natural gas in the power
sector has been under-estimated in the Report of IEP as well as the LCIG. Then, while the LCIG
Report is bullish on domestic oil production, assuming nearly 119 MMT of oil production in
2030, the IESS is more realistic and assumes more modest production. However, this is
dependent on geological resources which remain uncertain until exploration is complete.
o The Tool reveals that there is a possibility of reducing energy demand by heroic efforts in the
area of energy efficiency by 34% in the year 2047. Of this, nearly 80% potential lies just in two
sectors - Industry and Transport.
o Within the Industry sector, an increase in industrial efficiency coupled with shifts in
technology towards cleaner alternatives, in both the Cement and Iron and Steel sectors, lead
to the realization of the maximum energy savings potential.
o In the Transport sector, the major potential of reducing energy demand lies in the Passenger
Transport segment wherein, shift to public transport and adoption of electric and fuel cell
vehicles can make a difference by nearly 40% reduction of energy demand.
o As regards supply side interventions, the study reveals that over 60% import reduction is
achievable with sustained efforts. Amongst these, increase in renewable energy supply and
domestic coal production are likely to make most of the difference, and have been adopted by
05
the present Government as its priority areas for action in the energy sector.
o What is most heartening is, that if action on both demand and supply sides were adopted in a
coordinated manner, then India's import dependence for energy in the year 2047 would be
reduced from the default case of 57% to 22%. This will be a major achievement over the
present 31% import dependence for primary energy supply which is threatening to rise yet
more.
o The above possibilities demand that India ramps up share of electricity in the delivered energy
supply which is presently merely at 16%. There is a possibility to raise the above share to
nearly 40% in 2047 aided by a large increase in renewable energy, and adoption of electricity
based solutions on demand side such as electric vehicles, electric hobs in cooking, and
electrification of diesel-fuelled telecom towers and irrigation pumps.
o On costing side, the Tool reveals an interesting result that higher efficiency of energy use on
the demand side and cleaner energy on the supply side, is actually a cheaper pathway on lifecycle cost basis, than staying with the conventional energy system. This is quite intuitive as is
being witnessed presently with LED bulbs and solar energy price trends. However, we have to
be cautions to understand that such transitions would require large capital investment, which
itself would be a daunting task for the Indian economy to procure and deploy. If the cost of
capital on infrastructure were included, then new pathways would also be expensive.
o On the emissions side, while this is an energy calculator, we get a picture for 75% of the total
GHG emission of our economy. GHG emission projection are directly linked to the level of
renewable energy and energy efficiency measures that India may deploy in the coming
decades. Therefore, there is a wide range of likely energy sector emissions in 2047 from 3.3
Tonnes per capita to 7.8 Tonnes per capita. The moderate effort scenario on both demand
and supply sides, which also assumes Government's present policy outlook towards
renewable energy, leads us to a likely emissions of nearly 5 Tonnes per capita. This is much
lower than what the developed world is attempting even in response to calls for drastic
reduction in emissions.
The above discussion on the new features of IESS Version 2.0 and the results yielded under
different scenarios, call for a deeper exercise. Most energy projection exercises do not offer disaggregated projections for different demand and supply sectors. Hence, projections only help in
macro energy policy advice. The IESS, however, offers numbers for specific sectors which in the
Indian context allow sector specific detailed enquiries. For example, this Tool gives a range of
renewable energy deployment, linking it to the overall demand for electricity as well as the
availability of electricity supply from storage based solutions. While it highlights that ramping up
renewable energy is not merely a function of Government's drive to raise renewable energy
capacity, but is also dependent on a number of other technical factors, principally the resilience of
the electricity system to balance the grid. Inter-ministerial exercise to harness all the storage
based electricity solutions along with MNRE and MoP can further refine an IESS projections and
assure the likely investors of stable grids as an attractive investment regime. The aim of the IESS
06
exercise is also to provide the background for such sectoral studies especially because energy is
largely an inter-connected subject with multiple influences of demand and supply sectors.
This time, we are also releasing five compilations of the research outputs of IESS:
n
Compilation of one-pagers on all Demand and Supply sectors (IESS, 2047 Handbook)
Network and Systems- Detailed documents (Sector Specific Insights Part IV)
The dedicated website of IESS, 2047 hosts all the research outputs, including the Excel sheets of all
sectors. The aim of this exercise goes beyond the placement the data and analyses in the public
domain, and extends to encouraging enquiries by individuals and institutions, so that they may
contribute to the public debate on India's energy pathways. Engagement with citizens and
institutions is the single most important objective of this effort.
Anil K Jain
Adviser (Energy)
NITI Aayog
27.08.2015
07
INTRODUCTION
08
The levels
For each sector, four levels have been
developed, the descrip ons of which are as
follows:
Level 1-the 'Least Eort' scenario: This
assumes that li le or no eort is being made in
terms of interven ons on the demand and the
supply side.
Level 2- the 'Determined Eort' scenario: This
describes the level of eort which is deemed
most achievable by the implementa on of
current policies and programmes of the
government.
Level 3- the 'Aggressive Eort' scenario: This
09
10
Section 1:
The Webtool
The dynamic and interac ve webtool interface
which enables the user to play on the levels
and choose their own energy pathway. This is
the main interface between the user and the
detailed excel model. One can choose
pathways on the web interface and the same
draws from the excel spreadsheet at the
backend to generate the results and
implica ons of the chosen pathway.
Stress Tests
New Technologies
Government
Announcements
Supply Sectors
Rural electrica on
100 Smart Ci es
Renewable energy:
n
Demand Sectors
14
Transport
n
Buildings
n
Industry
Restructuring of Energy Eciency scenarios to include more drivers
along with the PAT scheme. Even technology op ons have been
adopted in steel and cement sectors which add value to the analysis
other than merely autonomous energy eciency op ons.
Telecom
Addi on of other solu ons for replacement of diesel in the telecom
sector. Version 2.0 considers solar roo op, wind, bioenergy and
hydrogen solu ons for replacement of diesel, as opposed to only
roo op solar solu ons in version 1.0.
15
2. Select the scenario (we call them Levels) by clicking on the numbered boxes
3. Click on the Informa on icon (le er i enclosed in a circle) or Lever name to open a One-pager.
16
4. Hover over dierent levels to know what it means (these tool ps can be really useful!).
5. This menu bar gives you a range of op ons (we call them'Implica ons'of a pathway) that you
can explore for your chosen pathway.
17
7. Click on 'Help' to know how to use the webtool and explore some interes ng features.
18
Section 2:
2.1 TRANSPORT
2.1.1 PASSENGER TRANSPORT DEMAND
The average distance travelled annually per person in
India in 2011-12 was only 5,992 km. The same statistic in
the European Union in 2009 was 11,700 km; in the United
Kingdom in 2012 was 14,500 km; while in the United
States of America, it was about 28,000 km per year in
2010-11. With increased economic development, there
is expected to be an increase in mobility and demand for
both inter-city and intra-city passenger transport in India
over the next few decades. These numbers refer to
Scenario 1 of GDP (7.4% CAGR).
Level 1
It assumes a steady increase in the per capita demand for
transport over the next four decades. From current
levels, distance travelled annually per person is expected
to increase to 18,420 km by 2047. Improved access to
transport infrastructure, accompanied by increasing
demand for mobility due to increased economic activity
would lead to an increase in total passenger transport
demand. Distance travelled per capita will rise steadily
for both intercity and intra city travel.
Level 2
Level 2 envisions a rise in the number of activity centres
across the country, thereby reducing the demand for
inter-city travel of people migrating for employment
opportunities. Better planning and improved urban
designs would also lessen intra-city travel distances. This
Level would see a drop in the overall annual demand for
mobility per capita by about 9 per cent from the mobility
demands envisioned by 2047 in level one, reaching
16,803 km by 2047.
Level 3
Level 3 visualizes a world where all new cities that come
up in the country in the next four decades plan for Transit
Oriented Development, and there is a conscious effort to
incorporate similar best practices in pre-existing urban
centres. Smart, IT enabled transport infrastructure
enabling better route optimization for commute trips
further helps in reducing the transport demand per
person. Annual per capita passenger transport demands
would thereby be moderated by about 18 per cent over
the present mobility demands envisioned by 2047 under
level one, reaching 15,186 km by 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 is a world where the growth of passenger
transport demand would be moderated by conscious
policy initiatives on urbanization patterns and transport
demand management. Realization of targeted economic
development in the rural sector will significantly reduce
demand for transport of migrant workers seeking
employment in urban centres. The measures for Transit
Oriented Development would get strengthened further,
with focus on minimizing the need for commute trips and
other trips for daily needs. Further improvement in IT and
IT enabled services would markedly reduce demands for
both intra and inter-city passenger travel. All these
initiatives would reduce the annual per capita passenger
transport demands by about 26 per cent over the
passenger transport demands envisioned by 2047 under
level one, reaching 14,377 km by 2047.
18,000
Pkm per year
16,000
14,000
14,377
12,000
10,000
8,000
5,992
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2012
2017
Level 1
20
2022
Level 2
2027
2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
Level 1
This level assumes that the present trends in mobility
shares will continue till 2047. The intermodal share of
passenger transport demand is expected to tilt further
towards road based modes. There would be a surge in
the total number of cars and jeeps by 2047 thereby
decreasing the share of public road based transport to
45%.The penetration of electric two-wheelers is still
assumed to be limited because of the absence of any
incentive mechanism and thereby increases as per past
trends to 18% in 2047. Although there will be a growth in
rail based transport systems, the growth will be marginal
compared to road and air transport. As a result, by 2047,
the share of road in passenger transport will become
about 86% while the share of rail will be about 12%. In
addition, as more planned airports in smaller cities
become operational and money value of time increases,
it is expected that the share of aviation in the overall
passenger transport demand will increase to 2%.
Level 2
Level 2 envisages a focus on rail based mass transport
systems. Metro and suburban rail systems would be
extended to a number of urban centers across the
country. Faster train sets will operate for inter-city rail
passenger services. This would positively affect the trend
of falling shares of rail based passenger transport and the
intermodal share of rail would rise to 15% by 2047.
Demand for faster intercity travel would maintain civil
aviation shares at about 2% While road based passenger
transport would still dominate, with an increase in the
share of public road based transport to about 57%, its
share would marginally reduce to about 83% of the total
passenger transport demand by 2047.This level also
assumes policy decisions on the side of the government
to subsidize electric vehicles, thereby increasing the
penetration of electric four-wheelers to 13%,electric
two-wheelers to 26%, electric buses to 3% of the road
based transport in 2047, buses on fuel cell engines to 1%
and cars on fuel cell engines to 4%.
Level 3
Level Three assumes conscious and increased
government policies towards incentivizing metro and
suburban rail services, introduction of high-speed rail
corridors and projects like Regional Rapid Transit System
(RRTS) across various urban centers. This will aid in
shifting larger volumes of passenger mobility from road
and air to rail based transport systems. The share of road
is assumed to decrease to less than 81% by 2047 in this
level while rail and aviation will occupy about 18% and
less than 2% shares respectively. Incentivizing metro
s e r v i c e s wo u l d i n c re a s e t h e s h a re o f p u b l i c
transportation in road based transport to about 67% in
2047. Additionally, this level assumes that the National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan kicks in and thereby the
penetration of electric two-wheelers increases to 39%,
electric four-wheelers increases to 26%, electric buses
increase to 7% of the road based transport, buses on fuel
cell engines increase to 2% and cars on fuel cell engines
increase to 9% of the total road based transport in 2047.
Level 4
In level four, the focus of government policies is expected
to further enhance investments in rail based public
transport like metros in all urban ci es and Rapid Rail
Transit Systems for all urban conglomerates. For inter-city
travel, priority in investment will be to shrink travel me
between all state capitals and major metros to 12 hours
or less through faster train services. High Speed Rail at
300 km/hour for high demand passenger corridors will
help reduce the incidence of air travel. Based on this,
Level Four envisages that the intermodal share for rail
would increase to almost 20% of the total passenger
movement. The share of road will decrease to around
79%; with 80% of the same comprising of public road
based modes of transport and the share of air would be
about 1%. The share of electric vehicles in road based
transport is assumed to increase to about 33% electric
four-wheelers, 70% of electric two-wheelers and 10% of
electric buses, 3% of buses running on fuel cell engines
and 11% of the cars running on fuel cell engines in 204647.
21
Level 1
With an increasing growth in industrial activity, Level One
sees a continuous rise in freight demand, with no
logistical planning. Sectors such as power, cement and
minerals are expected to continue to see an increasing
transport demand. Additionally with increasing
economic wealth, the demand for white goods is also
expected to grow, adding to the overall freight demand.
All this would lead to an increase in the freight transport
requirement from present levels to about 14,843 BTKMs
by 2047.
Level 2
Level Two assumes that as the demand for freight
transportation grows, there is a slight moderation in the
distances of cargo transportation, as economic activities
Level 3
Level Three envisages an improved scenario with
organized logistics assisted by better information
technology solutions to optimize route planning and
more efficient movement of goods across the country.
Planned industrial clusters along with optimized
transport logistics serving commercial and industrial
needs would help in reducing the total volume of freight
traffic by about 13 % from the Level One levels, to reach
12,888 BTKM's by 2047.
Level 4
Level Four envisions India with signicantly improved
logis c planning along with a movement towards local
produc on and local consump on. Concentrated
economic ac vity in the form of logis cs parks, industrial
clusters, and industrial centers would result in reduc on
in the average leads for freight transport on both rail and
road. This would imply a reduc on in volume of freight
trac by about 18 % over Level One by 2046-47 to reach
12,236 BTKM's by 2047.
14,843
16,000
13,540
12,888
14,000
12,000
12,236
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
1,672
2,000
-
2012
Level 1
22
2017
2022
Level 2
2027 2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
Level 1
Level one assumes that the observed trend of the past
three decades continues till 2047, with the modal share
rising significantly in favor of roadways. Large-scale
investments in highways and expressways are expected
to encourage the use of road over railways even for travel
distances beyond 700 km. However, it would also lead to
congestion due to the increase in road freight traffic
which could decrease transport efficiencies after a
certain point of time. The share of road in India's total
freight traffic by 2047 will show a marked increase to
71%, and the share of rail will decline to 29%.
Level 2
Level Two sees the introduction of two Dedicated Freight
Corridors Eastern and Western by 2020. Wagons with
higher payload (25 ton per axle) will further improve rail
efficiency and capacity. Railway freight transport will see
Level 3
Level Three sees higher investments in rail based freight
transport. This level sees an improvement in
infrastructure for freight transport via the introduc on of
DFCs on all four legs of the Golden Quadrilateral
(connec ng Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai).
Ra onaliza on in the tari regime of railway freight
transport, coupled with increased speeds and a shi
towards containeriza on would increase the share of the
freight trac on railways to 40% by 2047, with roads
accoun ng for 60%.
Level 4
Level Four sees the introduc on of Dedicated Freight
Corridors throughout the four legs of the Golden
Quadrilateral as well as the diagonals connec ng Delhi to
Chennai, and Kolkata to Mumbai. The policy changes to
encourage a modal shi towards rail freight would
con nue, along with tari ra onaliza on, increased
priva za on etc. New technologies, such as RoadRailers
(highway trailers that are specially equipped for
intermodal movement on railway tracks and highways)
would further help increase the inter-modal share of
Railways to 45% by 2047.
23
2.2 Industry
2.2.1 ENERGY INTENSITY OF INDUSTRY
The industry sector in India doubled in value during 2001
to 2011 and grew at an annual growth rate of 7%. In 2011
the industry sector consumed ~1656 TWh of energy,
which is 45% of the total commercial energy consumed
(TEDDY, 2012). Seven sub-sectors - aluminium, cement,
chlor-alkali, fertilizer, iron and steel, pulp and paper, and
textiles are the largest energy consumers, accounting for
around 60% (TERI calculations) of total energy use in the
industry sector. These are analysed at individual subsector levels. The remaining sub-sectors are categorized
as Others. The present analysis offers scenarios of likely
reduction in energy demand by effecting efficiency
measures in industry. The autonomous Energy Efficiency
(EE) improvement that occurs in individual sectors has
been considered as a major driver in the analysis (CSTEP).
Existing policy mechanisms such as the Perform-AchieveTrade (PAT) scheme of the Bureau of Energy Efficiency
(BEE) wherein the excess energy savings could be traded,
and non-compliance penalized, is also factored into the
analysis.
As the specific energy consumption (SEC) goals are
increasingly taken up by industrial units penetrating
into smaller units from existing sectors and units from
new sectors - the energy consumption is likely to reduce
further. The energy required by industry as feedstock has
not been analyzed in this exercise.
Level 1
This scenario assumes no new government policies,
other than the one PAT cycle (2012-15). The autonomous
EE penetration levels are also low. The norms are
applicable to only the subset of the units in the seven
industry sub-sectors. However, the efficiency of the units
Level 2
This level includes a gradual enhancement of penetration
of EE in Industry (Table 1). Industrial units opting for EE
would achieve the best efficiency possible in every sub
sector. The units not opting for EE also improve their
efficiency, but by a much lesser degree. The Others
undergo a reduction in intensity of about 4-5% CAGR.
Level 3
Building on Level 2, this scenario further increases the EE
penetration under the seven sub-sectors. The units not
opting for EE increase their efficiency across processes at
a rate of 20-30% of the efficiency improvement by units
that opt for EE. The Others undergo an efficiency
improvement of about 4-5% CAGR.
Level 4
Level 4 indicates the maximum possible improvement
that can be achieved in the industry sector. This level
further increases EE penetration. In addition, this level
assumes that the units not taking up EE undergo an
efficiency increase of between 20-50% of the units that
opt for EE. The Others improve their intensity by about
5-6% CAGR.
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Cement
72
19
72
79
Level 4
83
Fertilizer
75
66
75
79
84
Aluminum
69
19
70
79
83
56
11
60
69
80
29
30
39
48
Textile
93
50
65
68
69
Chlor Alkali
89
50
89
93
94
Note: In cases where the penetration of EE industries appears to decrease from the base year,
the units in the specic sub-sectors do not take up EE measures in a consistent and long term
approach.
24
Level A (Default)
TThis option does not invoke specific tech options and
the trajectories are based on the levels which have been
chosen and the SEC reductions are based on these
chosen levels.
25
Level A (Default)
This option does not invoke specific tech options and the
trajectories are based on the levels which have been
chosen and the SEC reductions are based on these
chosen levels.
26
2.3 Cooking
Level 1
By 2047, 40% of rural households switch to LPG. In urban
areas, due to increased access to PNG there is switching
from LPG to PNG resulting in 35% of urban households
using PNG while half the households LPG. With reliable
electricity supply to all households, 15% and 18% of
urban and rural households respectively use electricity
for cooking. Biogas users increase gradually from 4% of
the rural population to 7% of the rural population. In
Level 1, India will need 694 TWh by 2032 and 565 TWh by
2047 for its cooking needs.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that due to effective implementation of
rural programs for increasing access to electricity and
LPG, by 2047, 26% of rural households use electricity and
Level 3
Level 3 assumes, LPG with 30% of rural households using
electricity and 40% of the households using LPG and 12%
using Biogas by 2047. Therefore only 14% of the
households continue to rely on biomass, with all
households switching to improved cook stoves by 2032,
and 4% uses biogas. In urban areas, keen efforts to
increase PNG network leads to 45% of urban households
depending on it as a primary source for cooking energy by
2047. LPG is used for cooking only in 35% of urban homes
and 20% of the homes use electricity. Thus, India's energy
demand for cooking will be 493 TWh by 2032 and 435
TWh by 2047.
Level 4
In Level 4, by 2047, 38% of the rural households use LPG
and 38% depend on electricity. 15% of households use
biogas and only 4% of rural households use biomass with
traditional cook stoves being phased out in 2027. PNG
penetration in urban India increases to 55% and LPG
users falls to 25%. However, at least 20% households use
electricity. Thus, India's energy demand for cooking will
be 428 TWh by 2032 and 383 TWh by 2047
1200
Cooking Demand (TWh)
998
1000
800
600
565
491
400
435
383
200
0
200
6-0
201
Level 1
1-1
201
6-1
202
1-2
202
Years
Level 2
6-2
203
1-3
Level 3
203
6-3
204
1-4
204
6-4
Level 4
27
2.4 Buildings
2.4.1 BUILDING ENVELOPE OPTIMIZATION
Construction is the second largest economic activity in
India and has contributed around 8% to the nation's GDP
(at constant prices) from 2007 to 2011. The real estate
sector contributes to around 24% to the construction
GDP of India and has been growing at a CAGR of 12%.
It has been estimated that 70% of the building stock in
the year 2030 would be built during 2010-30. Residential
and commercial sectors currently account for 29% of the
total electricity consumption, which is expected to
increase substantially in the near future, if present trends
continue.
As a first step, three scenarios on how the urban planning
scenario is expected to pan out in the future are offered
to the user. Depending on the users' choice, the next leg
of this analysis works on reducing the cooling load of
buildings through greater penetration of building codes
into construction of buildings (focussing on building
material) which would reduce the need for cooling
devices. The savings achieved depend on the Urban
Planning Scenario chosen and the GDP level chosen.
These savings in the cooling load then translate into a
savings in the electricity demand of cooling devices,
depending on their increasing ownership and efficiency.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that along with standard building by
laws, there is development of ECBC compliance
structures at state level, and the modification of the
Energy Performance Index (EPI) bandwidth based
scheme to multi variable EPI scheme, both in the
residential as well as the commercial sectors.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a continuation of the multi variable EPI
scheme and increasing mandates in states for
implementation of the ECBC code. It also assumes a large
scale drive towards making compliance to the ECBC code,
mandatory, in new construction, till 2047.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2012
Level 2
Level 2 assumes, as per the Energy Conservation Act
2001, the introduction of a bye law for ECBC compliance
in new commercial buildings, and mandatory compliance
in government buildings. It also assumes increasing
adoption of incentive schemes, like a reduced property
tax etc., for the ECBC code in new residential buildings.
28
High Rise
S2 - 2047
Horizontal Development
S3 - 2047
Aordable Housing
3500
3000
Level 1
S1 - 2047
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2012
L1-2047
L2-2047
L3-2047
L4-2047
High Rise
1%
10%
50%
75%
90%
Horizontal
0%
5%
40%
55%
80%
Affordable Housing
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Commercial
10%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Residential
Level 1
Level 1 assumes only slight improvement in efficiency
over 2007 levels. In 2047, 98% of appliances are assumed
to be of low efficiency, 1% are of medium efficiency, and
1% are of high efficiency. Incandescent bulbs still form
the major source of lighting although there is a
substantial mix of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) and
thin tube-lights. Low efficiency motors are used in ceiling
fans, refrigerators and air-conditioners. A number of
Level 2
Level 2 assumes, in 2047, 45% of the appliances have low
efficiency while 38% have medium efficiency with
balance 17% being high efficiency appliances. Use of
incandescent bulb is reduced while that of CFL and thin
Tube-light is increased along with a small share of LED
lights.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a 45% share of high eciency appliances
and a small 13% share of low eciency and the balance
being medium ecient in 2047. The ligh ng demand is
halved due to increased penetra on of LED bulbs and
tube-lights. TVs use advanced LED backlit LCD technology
to decrease the consump on. The eciency of other
appliances like washing machines, geysers etc. also
improve. Public awareness on conserva on leads to
decrease in usage.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a complete market transforma on to
high eciency appliances. Incandescent bulbs are
almost eliminated and 90% of the lights are LED tubelights and bulbs. Ceiling fans use advanced technology
like Brushless Direct Current (BLDC) motors. All the
refrigerators use high eciency compressors and be er
insula ons. ACs have variable speed compressors
resul ng into high energy eciency ra os. There is high
public awareness on conserva on, resul ng in 80% of
appliances being high eciency, 17% being medium
eciency and 3% being low eciency.
Ligh ng
Appliances
100%
100%
90%
esi 80%
g
lo 70%
o
n
h
ecT 60%
f
o 50%
n
40%
io
atr
te 30%
en 20%
P
10%
0%
90%
se
ig
lo
o
n
h
ce
T
f
o
n
o
it
ar
te
n
e
P
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2012
0%
2012
L1- 2047
Bulb
L2- 2047
Tubelight
CFL
L3- 2047
L4 - 2047
L1- 2047
Low
L2- 2047
Medium
L3- 2047
L4 - 2047
High
LED
29
Level 1
Level 1 is the most pessimistic case of efficiency whereby
the base year configuration does not improve. The
market is unresponsive to better technologies and
potentially reduced life-cycle costs, while policy
imperatives/regulatory requirements and institutional
support are largely missing or inadequate.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that 20% of the service demand is met by
low-efficiency appliances, 50% by medium efficiency
appliances and the remaining by the Best Available
Technology (BAT). While there is considerable
improvement in overall efficiency of the mix, the
penetration of high or BAT is limited by high upfront costs
and low institutional support to newly established
commercial centers in rural areas and class 2 towns.
Level 3
In level 3, 50% of the market of low technology in BAU is
appropriated by BAT or high technology through a
combination of policy mandates and institutional
support. The resultant (L,M,H) configuration becomes
(20%, 50%,30%) in 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 is the op mis c case, whereby low technology is
eliminated from the market; the medium technology only
sa ses 20% of the service demand and the remaining
80% is met through the BAT.
Penetra on of technology
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012
L1-2047
High
30
L2-2047
Medium
Low
L3-2047
L4-2047
2.5 Agriculture
2.5.1 ENERGY DEMAND FOR MECHANIZATION
Fuel efficiency improves, reducing fuel requirement for
an hour of operation to 89 percent of the present value.
The improvement in specific fuel consumption (SFCs) is
autonomous and by 2031, tractors use 4 litres per hour of
diesel. The demand for diesel reaches saturation at 28 Mt
(342 TWh).
The number of tractors in the country was about 5.3
million in 2011 and has been growing at 6 percent
annually. This trend is expected to continue as only 19
percent of the potential market has been exploited. Total
annual demand for diesel from tractors is estimated to be
about 6 million tonnes (MT) in 2011.There is no
improvement in fuel efficiency of tractors, and demand
side incentives to improve efficiency are absent. Tractors
continue to use 4.5 litres per hour. The demand for diesel
reaches saturation at 32 Million tonnes (385 TWh) by
2031.
Level 2
Fuel efficiency improves, reducing fuel requirement for
an hour of operation to 89 percent of the present value.
The improvement in specific fuel consumption (SFCs) is
autonomous and by 2031, tractors use 4 litres per hour of
diesel. The demand for diesel reaches saturation at 28 Mt
(342 TWh).
Level 3
In Level 3, fuel efficiency further improves, with only 3.5
litres needed to run for an hour, a 22 percent
improvement from Level 1. The ceiling for maximum SFCs
is tightened by Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The
demand for diesel grows to 25 MT (300 TWh) by 2031 and
stabilizes thereafter.
Level 4
Level 1
There is no improvement in fuel efficiency of tractors,
and demand side incentives to improve efficiency are
absent. Tractors continue to use 4.5 litres per hour. The
demand for diesel reaches saturation at 32 Million
tonnes (385 TWh) by 2031.
450
385
400
342
350
300
300
257
250
200
150
100
50
59
2007
2012
2017
Level 1
2022
Level 2
2027
Years
2032
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
Level 4
31
Level 1
This is a pessimistic picture for the sector whereby
electrical pumping efficiency improves by merely 7
percent as pump replacements don't pick due to lack of
support mechanisms, while diesel pumps don't improve
at all. At the same time, higher Hydro Prokav pumps are
employed for greater hours in response to depleting
water table, exacerbating the problem. Micro irrigation
and advanced water management practices are still
employed at less than 5 percent of their potential (Rajput
& Patel, 2012). All this coupled with increase in gross
cropped area (GCA) to meet the requirements of growing
population results in demand growing by 7.25 percent till
2022, reducing to around 2 percent till 2047. Aggregate
demand so obtained is 877 TWh in 2047.
Level 2
In Level 2, electrical pumping input improves by 18
percent and diesel pumping by 8 percent, yielding an
average improvement of 17 percent. Agricultural
Demand Side Management (Ag-DSM), and various
complementary watershed development programmes
Level 3
Further improvement of 29 percent in pumping input
requirement results from aggressive replacement of old
pumps, slow increase in agricultural tariffs and
improvement in reliability of power supply. Microirrigation is extensively used to 50 percent of its potential.
At the same time, complementary schemes of inter-basin
transfers reduce pumping needs and hours of use. All
these result in a reduction of 45 percent from level 1 in
2047. Energy demand grows by 6.5 percent till 2022, and
the growth rate declines to 1 percent by 2042, yielding an
aggregate demand of 626 TWh in 2047.
Level 4
Level 4 envisages modern practices such as mulching and
vertical farming to optimise on water-use in response to
scarcity of water resources. Government fast-tracks
support to rain-fed areas, and increase in pumping
demand from these areas slows down. Electrical
pumping takes place at optimum loads, reducing losses
and resulting in best efficiencies. Electricity supply is
augmented and monitored for consistency. Diesel pumps
achieve optimum efficiencies too, and weighted
improvement in pumping input is 38 percent. As a result,
energy demand grows by 6 percent till 2022, and growth
rate falls to 0.75 percent in the 2040s. Overall demand
reduces to 549 TWh.
1,000
900
877
800
723
626
549
700
600
500
400
300
200
164
100
0
2012
2017
Level 1
32
2022
Level 2
2027
2032
Years
Level 3
2037
2042
Level 4
2047
Level A
Level B
85% of the demand is met through electricity and diesel
use is restricted to 10% of the total pumping
requirement, owing to de-regulation of diesel prices and
reduced diesel subsidy to agriculture sector. Solar
penetration reaches 5% as subsidies are channelled
towards solar pumping, particularly in regions with rich
solar insolation.
Level C
Diesel and electrical shares further reduce by 5
percentage points form level B, and solar is benefitted
through large-scale pilot projects, retrofitting and partial
removal of fuel subsidies to agriculture sector.
Level D
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D 2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
2A2B2C2D
Years
2007
2012
2022
Electricity
2032
Diesel
2042
2047
Solar
33
Level 1
This is a pessimistic scenario where we assume that no
regulations have been enforced and the present energy
consumption scenario continues. Only solar solutions are
considered feasible in this scenario. The percentage of
diesel operated telecom towers replaced by off-grid solar
in 2047 is assumed to be 10% in rural areas and urban
areas.
Level 2
Higher solar penetration rate i.e. 40% in rural areas and
urban areas is assumed by 2047. Higher electrification
34
Level 3
The penetration rate of off-grid solar plants is assumed to
increase to 70% in rural areas and 50% in urban areas in
2047, whereas Wind power solutions replaces 10% in
rural areas and 7% in urban areas. Bioenergy solutions
contributes to replacement of 6% in rural and 5% in urban
telecom towers and Hydrogen kicks in after 2022
replacing 3% rural and urban telecom towers.
Level 4
This is the most aggressive scenario where all
government regulations are met, and satisfactory quality
of electricity supply is assumed for the country. Telecom
towers run on grid supply and clean energy solutions,
both in urban and rural areas. The percentage of diesel
operated telecom towers replaced by off-grid solar in
2047 is assumed to be 75% in rural areas and 50% in
urban areas; whereas Wind power solutions replaces
10% in rural areas and 7% in urban areas. Bioenergy
solutions contributes to replacement of 10% in rural and
7% in urban telecom towers and Hydrogen replaces 5% in
rural and 15% in urban telecom towers.
2.7 Solar
2.7.1 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER
With 941 MW installed in the country as of 31st March
2012, Solar Photovoltaic (PV) was possibly the smallest in
terms of supply from any one resource. The present
capacity is 2517 MW (May 2014) most of which is located
in the high solar resource states of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
The target for grid connected solar power (PV and CSP)
under the Jawahar Lal Nehru National Solar Mission
(JNNSM) is set at 20 GW by 2022. However given the
present price advantage of PV over CSP it looks likely that
a significant share of the 20 GW would be done by PV.
Going beyond the JNNSM, the National Tariff Policy (NTP)
was amended in 2011 to have a separate solar RPO for all
obligated entities in the country. This is expected to begin
with 0.25% in 2012 and increase to 3% in 2022. According
to MNRE, this translates to a need of roughly 34,000 MW
in 2022. Most of the solar PV plants are based on either
c-Si or thin film technology.
Level 1
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the capacity addition would follow
the JNNSM trajectory. By 2017, capacity would reach
close to 8 GW in line with the 12th Plan projections, while
by 2022 it would reach 17.9 GW. Capacity addition
increases strongly thereafter culminating in a cumulative
capacity of 150 GW by 2047. This implies a 35 year CAGR
of 16% (2012-2047).
Level 3
Level 3 assumes steady drop in solar PV prices and the
marginal increase in fossil fuels prices thus making Solar
PV economically competitive. Capacity addition in this
scenario would be slightly higher than the JNNSM
resulting in 21.5 GW in 2022. It would cross the 100 GW
mark by 2035 and finally reach 248 GW by 2047.
Level 4
600
479
Capacity (GW)
500
400
300
248
200
100
150
1
37
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
35
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that there is slow but consistent growth
in capacity addition of CSP. It reaches 4 GW by 2022, i.e.
20% of the total JNNSM target for grid connected solar.
The final capacity in this level in year 2047 is 46 GW
resulting in a generation of 181 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that CSP costs come down significantly
and that there are no limitations on plant size etc.
Improved transmission and HVDC lines together, result in
faster capacity addition. 10.8 GW is reached by 2027
increasing thrice to 34 GW in the next ten years and
culminating in 90 GW by 2047. Generation by 2047
reaches 357 TWh.
Level 4
Solar CSP becomes one of the prime sources of electricity
generation; extended storage facility helps CSP reach
maximum potential. Costs of solar system and storage fall
as higher temperature technologies are introduced.
Supply grows rapidly meeting the National Action Plan on
Climate Change targets by 2020 resulting in a capacity of
6.7 GW by 2022 and 187 GW in 2047, a CAGR of 15% over
30 years. Generation by 2047 reaches 746 TWh.
Level 1
187.0
200
150
100
90.0
50
46.0
0
9.5
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
36
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that there is a very little improvement in
distributed PV installations in the residential sector and
negligible growth in the industrial and commercial
sectors. The penetration rate is as low as 0.6% of
households in 2047 resulting in total capacity of 9 GW.
Lack of clarity on technical and safety standards coupled
with weak policy regulatory framework hampers growth.
The electricity generated in 2047 would be 15 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with increase in urbanization the
peak demand for electricity would also grow, leading to
an increase in penetration levels to 7% of households by
2047. This would also force industrial, commercial and
institutional spaces to adopt distributed PV's lead to a
quick increase in capacities. The total capacity will
increase to 110 GW by 2047 and electricity generated
would be 184.5 TWh.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes that there are favourable policies for
supporting growth in distributed SPV and there is ample
rooftop space available in coordination with Solar Water
Heaters. The penetration levels are as high as 17% of
households leading to rapid growth in the residential as
well as commercial sectors. Increased penetration levels
leads to a total of 263 GW of capacity and ~ 439 TWh of
electricity generation. Smart grids, advanced inverters
and favourable storage costs aid this process. India also
meets its 40GW rooftop target by 2022.
Level 2
250
200
150
110
100
50
47
0.03
0
2012
Level 1
2017
2022
2027
Years
Level 2
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
37
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the JNNSM target of 20 million sq. m
is nearly met by 2022, with residential sector remaining
the major contributor with a penetration rate of 7% HHs
by 2047. The total collector space reaches 138 million sq.
m. in 2047. The total Solar Water Heaters capacity in 2047
reaches 97 GW.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with the increase in urbanization the
demand for hot water rises. Also, strict mandates for
industrial, commercial and institutional spaces lead to
quick increase in SWH capacities and the penetration
level increases to 12.5%. The total collector space grows
to ~247 million sq. m. The total Solar Water Heaters
capacity in 2047 reaches 173 GW.
Level 4
Level 1
300
280
250
Capacity (GW)
200
173
150
97
100
50
23
4.22
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
38
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2.8 Wind
2.8.1 ONSHORE WIND POWER
With 23444 MW of wind power installed in the country as
on 31st April 2015, it constitutes the mainstay of
renewable power in the country, contributing to 65.5% of
the total renewable energy capacity most of which is
located in the southern and western high solar resource
states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat
and Rajasthan. The target for grid connected wind power
under the 12th plan is set for an additional 15 GW. With
regard to wind power potential, while the revised official
figures stands at 102 GW, various studies point out that
the actual potential could be anywhere between 500 1000 GW which indicates that resource availability is not
a constraint for wind power development. Availability of
land, transmission infrastructure and reliable integration
of variable generation would be key factors that may limit
the uptake of wind power in the future.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a capacity addition in this scenario to be
slightly higher than the 12/13th plan requirements
resulting in 62 GW in 2022. However this would still not
be enough to meet the NAPCC targets of 2020. It would
cross the 100 GW mark just before 2030 and finally reach
270 GW by 2047. The resulting generation would be to
the tune of 665 TWh. Significant repowering efforts
would be undertaken in this level and beyond. The
electricity generation in 2047 would be 665.3 TWh.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that wind power capacity addition would
be significantly slower than that prescribed under the
12th Plan or as required to meet guiding National Action
Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) targets. Reliably
integrating variable generation would remain a
challenge. The 12th plan addition would only be around
8.5 GW assuming the same annual addition as in 201213. 13th Plan addition would be slightly higher at 10 GW.
Capacity would increase to roughly 35.8 GW by 2022, and
increase to about 67 GW by 2047. The electricity
generated in 2047 would rise to 161.8 TWh from 32.2
TWh in 2012.
Level 4
In this scenario, there is absolutely no barrier to the
growth of onshore wind power. There is a sharp drop in
wind prices coupled with significant increases in fossil
fuel prices, especially coal. Smart grids, Demand
r e s p o n s e a n d s t o ra g e i s i n p l a c e . S i m i l a r l y,
forecasting/dispatch and reliable grid integration is taken
care of. Energy security is consciously factored in energy
planning and land is not a constraint. Capacity increases
to 82 GW (172 TWh) by 2022 in line with the NAPCC
requirement of 15% by 2020 (excluding large hydro) and
recent target announcement (60 GW by 2022). By 2040 it
reaches ~300 GW and by 2047 a high of 410 GW. The
corresponding generation in 2047 is 1007 TWh.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that by 2017, capacity would reach close
to 32 GW in line with the 12th Plan projections, while by
450
410
400
350
300
270
250
200
202
150
100
50
67
17
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
39
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the MNRE policy target of 2 GW is
achieved by 2025. Without any further improvement in
technology and offshore wind potential assessment, the
sector witnesses a gradual growth in capacity addition
reaching 19.5 GW by 2047. The corresponding electricity
generation in 2047 would be 64.3 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that with the improvement in potential
offshore site identification and cost reductions, India
would gradually build up its offshore wind capacity to 2
GW in 2022 meeting MNRE offshore wind policy targets,
35 GW by 2040 and 62 GW by 2047. This results in roughly
205 TWh of generation in 2047. Significant investments
would be needed in the transmission and evacuation
systems.
Level 4
Level 1
141
120
100
80
62
60
40
19.5
20
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
40
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 3
In addition to achievement of government plans, Level 3
includes the benefits from completion of Renovation and
Modernization (R&M) and Life Extension (LE) efforts. This
results in additional capacity of 4.06 GW across 12th Five
Year Plan, assumed to continue over the 13th Plan.
Beyond the 13th Plan, past trends in capacity additions
are expected to continue till 2047 (2047 Installed
capacity: 105 GW). The corresponding electricity
generation in 2047 would be 368 TWh.
Level 1
In this pessimistic trajectory, it is assumed that the
current plants continue to operate with scheduled
maintenance efforts through the period of analysis. Due
to unresolved constraints on issues of large-scale
ecological damage, resettlement and rehabilitation, only
plants which have been commissioned and expected to
yield likely benefits during the 12th plan are accounted
for in capacity addition till 2017. No new construction is
assumed after this, and installed capacity increases to 49
GW in 2047 from 41 GW in 2012. No new pumped hydro
schemes are completed. The electricity generated in
2047 would become 171.8 TWh which was 143.8 TWh in
2012.
Level 4
In this highly optimistic scenario, technology
advancements are assumed to result in exploitation of
full potential of large hydro. Advances in technology
development, and R&D efforts in de-silting, integration of
regional grids, forecasting etc. are assumed to take place.
Benefits from advances in R&M and LE are assumed to
increase to 20 GW per FYP for the period of analysis, to
reach up to 150 GW (100% of potential) by 2047 which
will generate 526 TWh of electricity.
Level 2
With the aim to accelerate hydro power development in
India, the Ministry of Power (MoP) introduced the
National Policy on Hydropower Development in 1998.
160
150
140
120
105
100
80
60
75
41
49
40
20
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
41
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the 12th five-year plan target of 2.1
GW of new capacity is met by 2017 and a further 3.5 GW
is added in the 13th plan to reach a cumulative capacity of
8.9 GW by 2022. Capacity addition slows down after this
point and reaches the ultimate capacity of 15 GW 2047
and the amount of electricity generated would be 16
TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes an optimistic view by meeting not only
the 12th and 13th Plan targets but a slightly faster
deployment resulting in 9.8 GW in 2022. By 2032, the
complete present projected potential of roughly 20 GW is
met and maintained thereafter till 2047. Resulting
generation is approximately 77 TWh.
Level 1
Level 4
35
29.9
30
25
20
20
15.1
15
9.05
10
5
3.395
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Years
Level 1
42
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that the present reactors under
construction 4.3 GW are completed and commissioned.
This will take the cumulative nuclear capacity to 9.98 GW
by the end of Twelfth Plan. However, the present public
sentiment regarding nuclear power results in limited
capacity addition in nuclear power, while a few of the
older reactors get decommissioned. Thus, the
cumulative nuclear power capacity reaches only about
11.36 GW by 2047 from 4.68 GW in 2012. The electricity
generated would rise to 79.7 TWh in 2047 from 26.7 TWh
in 2012.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that new reactors are developed on the
eight new sites identified. The government's in principle
approval exists for setting up 700 MW PHWR reactors in
five sites, leading to 8.4 GW of capacity addition in this
technology. Further, Light Water Reactors (LWRs) are
built on four sites. Also, two more Fast Breeder Reactors
(FBRs) with a total capacity of 1 GW are commissioned.
Thus, the total nuclear capacity reaches 26.11 GW by
2047. The corresponding electricity generated in 2047
would be 183.1 TWh.
Level 3
Level 3 assumes that all the new PHWR sites are fully
utilized with new reactors. Six reactors are assumed per
site. In addition, the spent fuel from thermal reactors is
used to build 2.5 GW Fast Breeder Reactors. Thus, new
reactors are developed taking the installed capacity to
45.01 GW by 2047 and the electricity generated would be
315.6 TWh.
Level 4
Over and above Level 3, this highly optimistic scenario
assumes that three new sites are identified, which can
accommodate about 15 GW through new PHWRs and
LWRs. Further, up to 4.5 GW of FBRs are developed. In this
scenario, the nuclear capacity reaches 78.06 GW by 2047.
The corresponding electricity generation in 2047 would
be 547.4 TWh.
90
547.4
80
500
400
315.6
300
200
100
183.1
79.7
26.7
600
78
70
60
50
45
40
30
26
20
11
10
0
2012
2017
Level 1
2022
2027
2032
Years
Level 2
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
2012
Level 4
2017
Level 1
2022
2027
Level 2
2032
Level 3
2037
2042
2047
Level 4
43
2.11 Bioenergy
2.11.1 BIOMASS RESIDUE PRODUCTION
AND END-USAGE
The components that presently make up bioenergy
production in India are agricultural residue, forest
residue, sugarcane molasses-based bioethanol, Jatropha
biodiesel and biogas. 99% of the present bioenergy
production relates to agriculture residue and forestry
residue (214 and 150 million tons/year). Bioenergy
production is already estimated to be about 1843
TWhr/year (25% of the total energy consumption of
India). A large part of biomass residue is used for
cooking. Part of agri-residue (about 16 million tons/yr) is
used for power generation (2.5 GW). The agri-residue
that accounts for bioenergy is 67% of the residue that is
not used as animal fodder and the other 33% is used for
other applications. This split is maintained in future as
well for all the four levels. The agri-residue productivity
is projected to increase from 0 to 0.75% (annual) across
the four levels. As for forestry residue, 180-200 million
tons/year is rated to be the sustainable limit for recovery
from forests and it is extended across the four levels
accordingly.
Level 1
The split of non-fodder agri-residue for household
cooking decreases from 46% to 25% by 2027 and to 3% by
2047. The agri-residue split for power generation is
increased from the present 5% to 16%. This relates to
power generation increasing from the present 2.5 GW to
7.8 GW by 2047. Liquid transportation fuel from agriresidue begins to be produced commercially from 2027
and the split reaches 6% by 2047. This leaves the
proportion for other miscellaneous energy applications
to change from the present 16% to 42% by 2047.
Level 2
0.25% annual growth rate is considered for the agriresidue productivity. The forestry residue is projected to
increase to 174 million tons/year. The split of non-fodder
Level 3
The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at
an annual growth rate of 0.5%. The forestry residue is
projected to increase to 190 million tons/year. The split
of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking
decreases to 12% by 2027 and to 2% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation is increased from the
present 5% to 43. This relates to power generation
increasing from the present 2.5 GW to 42 GW by 2047.
Liquid transportation fuel from agri-residue begins to be
produced commercially from 2020 and the split reaches
22% by 2047. This leaves the other energy applications
split to increase to 30% by 2027 and decrease to 0.5% by
2047.
Level 4
The agri-residue productivity is projected to increase at
an annual growth rate of 0.75%. The forestry residue is
projected to increase to 200 million tons/year. The split
of non-fodder agri-residue for household cooking
decreases to 8% by 2027 and to 1% by 2047. The agriresidue split for power generation increases from the
present 5% to a maximum of 45 by 2032-37 and
decreases to 36% by 2047 as the conversion to liquid fuels
become more pronounced. Liquid transportation fuel
from agri-residue begins to be produced commercially
from 2017 and the split increases to 30% by 2047.
44
Level 1
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 4.5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 10,000 ha (by 2047).
As for biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation
wasteland is projected to increase to 0.45 Mha (by 2047)
and biodiesel production to 0.25 mtoe/year.
Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue begin to be
commercially ready from 2027. The fuel production
reaches 2.9 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second
generation biofuel production reaches 3.5 mtoe/year by
2047.
Level 3
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.2 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 20,000 ha (by 2047).
Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches
0.9 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from
Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to
increase to 3.5 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production
to 4.9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agriresidue residue and wasteland biomass begin to be
commercially ready from 2020. The fuel production
reaches 21.3 mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second
generation biofuel production reaches 27 mtoe/year by
2047.
Level 4
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5.5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 25,000 ha (by 2047).
Total first generation ethanol from sugar crops reaches
1.26 mtoe saturating by 2027. As for biodiesel from
Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation wasteland is projected to
increase to 5.25 Mha (by 2047) and biodiesel production
to 9 mtoe/year. Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agriresidue and wasteland biomass begin to be commercially
ready from 2017. The fuel production reaches 39
mtoe/year by 2047. Total first and second generation
biofuel production reaches 50 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 2
Sugarcane cultivation area is kept constant at 5 Mha.
Sugarbeet and sweet sorghum cultivation areas are
projected to increase gradually to 15,000 ha. As for
biodiesel from Jatropha/Pongamia, cultivation
wasteland is projected to increase to 1.7 Mha (by 2047)
and biodiesel production to 1.7 mtoe/year.
Lignocellulosic liquid fuels from agri-residue and
Projection of First and Second Generation Biofuels
45
Level 1
The microalgal technology sees barely any development
with commercial production reaching only 5,000
tons/year by 2047. An area productivity of 25 g/m2/day
and lipid content of 18% has been considered. The
cultivation land area extends to a mere 500 ha by 2047.
Offshore macroalgae also sees only negligible
development with fuel production reaching just 2,000
tons/year by 2047.
Level 2
The microalgal fuel development is still slow with
commercial production starting at a lowly 1,000
tons/year by 2027. An area productivity of 35 g/m2/day
has been considered. Lipid content is taken to be 23%.
46
Level 3
The microalgal fuel development is assumed to be
promising with commercial production starting from
2022 at 40,000 tons/year. An area productivity of 55
g/m2/day has been considered and Lipid content
envisaged at 28%. Microalgae cultivation extends to a
land area of 0.35 Mha (2047). This relates to microalgal
biofuel production of 12 mtoe/year by 2047. Offshore
macroalgae also picks up with commercial production
starting from 2022. 55 g/m2/day productivity has been
considered with energy yield of fuel conversion process
increase to 52% by 2047 from the present 20% as in
lignocellulosic liquid fuels. Liquid fuel production from
macroalgae reaches 0.7 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 4
In Level 4, a highly optimistic scenario is assumed,
wherein microalgal fuel is envisioned to become
commercially viable starting from 2020. Areal
productivity is considered to be 75 g/m2/day with lipid
content of 38%. Microalgae cultivation extends to an
area of 0.65 Mha by 2047 and biofuel production
progresses appreciably to 41.3 mtoe/year by 2047.
Offshore macroalgae becomes commercially viable by
2022. An area productivity of 75 g/m2/day has been
considered. The energy yield of fuel conversion process
is projected to increase to 60% by 2047. This relates to a
macroalgal fuel production of 2.2 mtoe/year by 2047.
Level 1
Level 1 assumes that there will be no capacity additions
and hence MSW based WtE capacity will remain at a level
of 96MW. There will be no capacity additions even
beyond 2017, primarily due to lack of inter agency
coordination and favourable policies. Other key adverse
factor will be limited understanding of technical issues
involved in construction, operational and environmental
aspects of MSW based WtE projects. Once these projects
have lived their life, there will be no MSW based WtE
projects, by 2037.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes that the capacity addition happen in line
with 12th plan targets resulting in 153MW installed
capacity by end of 12th Plan. Most of it will still be based
on mixed MSW. With improving segregation levels and
Government's focus on WtE, by 2047:
l 25% of segregated urban organic MSW will yield 0.36
Mtoe of biogas
l 20% of segregated rural organic MSW will yield
0.28Mtoe of biogas
l 18% of total 'waste to electricity generation'
potential will be realized resulting in approx.
3,550MW installed power generation capacity.
l 18% of segregated urban combustibles will be used
as fuel yielding 2.36Mtoe of thermal energy.
Level 4
In this scenario, there are absolutely no barrier
(economic, social or technical) to the growth of MSW
based WtE. Inter agency conflicts are also resolved. WtE
gets enhanced attention coupled with significant
increases in fossil fuel prices, especially coal. Fossil fuel
externalities are priced. Energy security is consciously
factored in energy planning. In this level, by 2047:
l
75% of segregated urban organic MSW will yield 1.09
Mtoe of biogas
l
60% of segregated rural organic MSW will yield
0.83Mtoe of biogas
l
30% of total 'waste to electricity generation'
potential will be realized resulting in approx.
5,850MW installed power generation capacity
l
63% of segregated urban combustibles will be used
as fuel yielding 8.44Mtoe of thermal energy.
231.10
250
200
120.17
150
64.71
100
50
0.00
0
2012
2017
Level 3
52,441.15
60,000
50,000
34,699.39
40,000
30,000
17,355.77
20,000
10,000
0.00
0.00
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Level 1
Level 3
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
5,854
3,545
96
2012
2047
Level 1
Year
Level 2
2027
Year
Level 2
Level 1
2022
2017
2022
2027
Year
Level 2
2032
2037
Level 3
2042
2047
Level 4
Level 4
47
2.13 Hydrogen
As the energy demand in India increases over the years,
the potential of various alternative sources will require to
be exploited. Hydrogen fuel will emerge as a powerful
and stable source by the year 2020 and will be available
for production, storage and supply chain for use in the
transport sector by then. Hydrogen fuel will prove to be a
cleaner source of energy once Carbon Capture and
Storage (CCS) technology has been fully developed.
According to the Hydrogen Roadmap developed by IEA,
Biomass Gasification, the technology with the least
amount of emissions and maximum accessibility to
feedstock will have a major share in the total demand for
Hydrogen fuel. Although hydrogen as a fuel has not taken
off as yet in India, in the following analysis weighted
predictions have been made by taking into consideration
the various hydrogen production plans made in the
National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap developed by the
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) under
four scenarios upto 2047 on the demand of hydrogen fuel
and its breakdown into the various technologies of
production fulfilling the demand.
Level 1
Level 3
Under this scenario, a higher share of the entire hydrogen
fuel demand is fulfilled by electrolysis and electrochemical technology and a more drastic decline is
observed in the usage of natural gas reforming.
Electrolysis takes up 50% of the demand while 40% is
taken by coal gasification, 5% by natural gas reforming
and 5% by Biomass gasification.
Level 4
This scenario considers a high upgradation of electrolysis
technology and CCS technology is installed in all coal
gasification plants. 80% of the entire hydrogen fuel
demand is fulfilled by electrolysis, 5% by coal gasification,
5% by natural gas reforming and 10% by biogas
reforming.
120
120
100
100
80
60
40
20
0
80
60
40
20
0
Level 1
Coal Reforming
48
Level 2
Level 2
Gas reforming
Level 3
Electrolysis
Level 4
Biogas
Level 1
Coal Reforming
Level 2
Gas reforming
Level 3
Electrolysis
Level 4
Biogas
2.14 Gas
2.14.1 DOMESTIC GAS PRODUCTION
India has 26 sedimentary basins out of which 15 sedimentary
basins have been surveyed to some degree of satisfaction.
The prognosticated hydrocarbon resource (oil + oil
equivalent of gas) estimated by DGH (Directorate General of
Hydrocarbons) for the 15 basins is about 28 billion tons. Out
of this, 10.94 billion tons of initial in place (IIP) reserves
(O+OEG) have been established as of 01.04.2014. The share
of oil IIP is 6.96 billion tons (63.4%) and that of gas is 3.98
billion tons (36.6%), the share of gas is rising in the recent
years. The gas recovery factor is currently in the range of 5560%. With the growth in O+OEG reserves from 2004 to 2012
at a CAGR of 2.55%, total IIP reserves are projected to be
23.76 billion tons in 2047. The share of oil and gas IIP would
be 9.5 (40%) billion tons and 14.25billion tons (60%),
respectively. The four Levels of likely gas production leading
upto 2047 are based on rising recovery factors (R/F) and
production of unconventional sources of gas.
Level 1
Level 1 incorporates only future production from the current
discoveries of conventional gas and Coal-Bed Methane (CBM
)(not from new discoveries). Historical production has been
taken into account. It does not include any production of
shale or Underground Coal Gasification (UCG). Domestic gas
supply reaches about 82 BCM in 2047 from 48 BCM in 2012.
This Level assumes recovery factor (R/F) of 55%. The share of
Private/Joint Ventures (PVT/JVCs) in the total production in
2047 would be 19% as compared to 75% of Non-Oil
Companies's (ONGC-63% & OIL 12%) and CBM would
contribute around 6%.
Level 2
Level 2 assumes moderate development of CBM achieving
peak production of 5 BCM in 2032 and remains static
thereafter. Shale gas makes its debut at end of the 13th Five
Year Plan (FYP) i.e. 2021-22. It assumes no UCG production.
This Level assumes continuation of the present gas price and
utilization policies, which are perceived as restrictive by
International Oil Companies (IOCs). This takes into account
new gas production of NOCs/Private, as new fields get
appraised and go into commercial production. Level-2
assumes R/F of 60%. The domestic gas supply would reach a
level of 127.5 BCM in 2047. The share of PVT/JVCs in the total
production of natural gas in 2047 would be 37% as compared
to 56% of NOCs (ONGC-45% & OIL 11%). The rest (7%) would
Level 3
Level 3 envisages additional policy inputs to spur the growth
of natural gas sector. It assumes attractive fiscal regime for
exploration, and price/utilization approvals are no longer
required as the gas market has completely evolved in India.
CBM will achieve a peak production of 8 BCM in 2037 and will
remain static thereafter. It assumes shale gas production
starting from middle of the 13th FYP. It also assumes gas
production coming from Underground Coal Gasification
(UCG) of 2 BCM/annum from 2027 onwards (15th FYP). It
assumes R/F of 70% from the existing fields. Gas supply
would reach about 170 BCM by 2047. The share of PVT/JVCs
in the total production in 2047 would be 32% as compared to
53% of NOCs (ONGC-43% & OIL 10%) in natural gas, and the
rest 14% share would comprise of unconventional resources
(shale gas, CBM and UCG).
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a globally competitive upstream regime
wherein IOCs find it attractive to invest in India and free gas
market has set in. It assumes an aggressive conventional gas
scenario and CBM exploitation, a moderate shale gas
production and commencement of UCG from 15th FYP but
maximum supply from UCG is about 5 BCM/ annum. Even the
un-assessed 11 sedimentary basins may come under
production in the later decades. This scenario finds support
from a carbon reduction drive of the Government, too. Level4 assumes R/F of 80% which would safely sustain production
level of 224 BCM/year in the year 2047 with establishment of
conventional gas reserves of 14.25 billion Tons of Oil
equivalent of gas. India holds 933 TCF of has hydrate reserves
(source: DGH) however, no commercial production has been
established yet. Based on technological breakthrough by
Japan for first gas hydrate production in March, 2013 at pilot
scale, Indian estimates of 933 TCF of gas hydrate production
may come into reality. Taking 10% R/F, we may consider the
resource of about 93 TCF (total of about 2.63 TCM) only, as
there is no assurance of commercial establishment of
production from gas hydrates. The share of PVT/JVCs in the
total natural gas production in 2047 would be 33% as
compared to 52% of NOCs (ONGC-41% & OIL 11%) and the
unconventional share would be about 15% comprising shale
gas, CBM, UCG and gas hydrates.
49
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 4 assumes that the expected capacity by 2032 as
per forced gas scenario of Integrated Energy Policy (IEP)
by Planning Commission will be achieved by 2047. Total
capacity will be about 132 GW by 2047. The average
CAGR under this scenario will be about 5%. PLF increases
from 48% in 2017 to 60% in 2047 due to improved gas
availability from both domestic and imported sources
and conversion efficiency will be about 66% by 2047 due
to improved technologies. As a result, the corresponding
electricity generation will be 696 TWh in 2047.
Level 1
140
132
120
100
83
80
60
40
50
36
24
20
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Years
L1
50
L2
L3
L4
2042
2047
2.15 Coal
2.15.1 DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION
Coal contributes over half of India's primary commercial
energy, and it is likely to remain India's most important
source of energy for the next 2 decades. After
nationalization of coal mines in 1973, coal production
improved significantly. However, presently there is
continued shortageand imports have increased meeting
nearly 25% of demand. While official numbers of coal
resources and reserves have been published every year with
an average increase of almost 2.5 % per year for last two
decades, the quantity of actual techno-economically
mineable coal reserves in the country is still not clear. In the
present analysis, the 4 Levels examine the likely coal supply
from domestic sources up to 2047. The likely factors/levers
herein are improved outlook on reserves, growth in coal
based power capacity, speedy statutory approvals and
deployment of technology/private capital.
Level 3
Level 1
Level 4
Level 4 is the most optimistic, assuming full encouragement
for coal based energy supply. Proved coal reserves will grow
at 1.5% p.a., production will reach about 1400 MTPA in 2032
as anticipated in the Integrated Energy Policy document, and
mineability will increase better than in other levels. In this
scenario, coal production will increase to about 1608 MTPA
in 2047, almost consistent with the high-case scenario of
global coal production as per Global Coal Production
Outlook. In this scenario, about 48% of mineable coal
reserves would have been extracted by 2047. UG mining will
be emphasised significantly along with technological
advancements but its share will increase only to 12.3% in
2047 from 9% in 2012 due to geological constraints.
Level 2
Level 2 projections are consistent with realistic (business as
usual) projected scenario based the 12th Five Year Plan till
2022. Given that the production for 2012-13 fell about 18
1800
1600
1608
1400
1400
1200
1157
1000
800
582
600
540
400
200
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
51
Level 1
Coal based power generation is discouraged due to
increasing fuel prices, import dependence, pressure to
reduce carbon emissions, reducing prices of renewable
energy etc. Installed capacity grows slowly to a high of
270 GW in 2032, corresponding to the least coal scenario
of the Integrated Energy Policy, and will reduce
thereafter to 253 GW by 2047. Plant load factor (PLF) of
power plants remains 73% up to 2032 and improves to
74% thereafter.
Level 2
Level 2 projections are in line with Planning
Commission's projections for next decade with a reduced
growth rate thereafter. Installed capacity will grow
rapidly to 297 GW in 2027, and then grow slowly to 379
GW in 2047 due to increasing coal prices, increasing
Level 3
Level 3 assumes a coal-fired capacity addition slightly
lower than what is assumed for the 8% GDP growth
scenario in the interim report of the Expert Group on Low
Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth. The growth rate
of capacity addition is assumed to reduce subsequently.
In this scenario, installed capacity will grow to 379 GW by
2032, and then slow down to reach 464 GW by 2047.
Current PLF will improve to 77% for next two decades and
to 78% for further 15 years.
Level 4
Level 4 assumes a coal-fired capacity addition slightly
lower than what is assumed for the 9% GDP growth
scenario in the interim report of the Expert Group on Low
Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth. The growth rate
of capacity addition is assumed to reduce subsequently.
Installed capacity will grow to 591 GW in the next 35 years
due to improved domestic coal supply, softening of
imported coal prices and availability of more carbon
space to countries like India. Current PLF will improve to
79% for next two decades and to 80% for the further 15
years.
700
600
591
500
459
400
333
300
253
200
125
100
0
Year
Level 1
52
Level 2
Level3
Level 4
Level 1
New technology development/deployment will be slow.
Subcritical capacity addition will stop only after 2022,
ultra supercritical technology will be introduced only in
2027 and Integrated Gas Combined Cycle (IGCC) is
introduced in 2037. The share of IGCC in the coal-fired
capacity addition during 2042-47 would be only 30%, and
its share of the total capacity in 2047 would be only 18.6
GW at level 2 capacity addition, amounting to just about
6%, while 64% of the capacity would be super-critical.
Total demand for Indian grade coal in 2047 in this
scenario is high at 1390 million tons.
Level 2
New technology development/deployment will be
slightly faster than scenario A. Subcritical plant addition
Level 3
New technology development/deployment will be
encouraged and hence its adoption would be faster. Subcritical capacity addition will stop after 2017, ultrasupercritical technology will be commercialized in 2022
and IGCC in 2027. IGCC's share of the capacity addition in
the 18th five year plan (204247) would be 65%. In 2047,
the share of IGCC in the coal-fired capacity would have
increased to 20% and super-critical technology would
have reduced to 43%. Total demand for Indian grade coal
in 2047 in this scenario is 1165 million tons.
Level 4
New technology development/deployment will be
aggressively promoted and hence adopted very fast.
Subcritical capacity addition will stop after 2017. 20% of
new capacity addition in the 14th five year plan from
2022 would be ultra-supercritical technology and 20% of
new capacity addition in the 15th five year plan from
2027 would be IGCC. Of the capacity addition in the 18th
five year plan ending in 2047, 80% would be IGCC,
resulting in its share in the total installed capacity in 2047
being 26%. Total demand for Indian grade coal in 2047 in
this scenario falls to 1142 million tons.
53
Level 1
Level 1 assumes no improvement in R/F, and no newfields
come into production, barring the ones for which
investment decisions have been taken. It considers 13
DOCs/FDP approved by MC/DGH and 6 fields under
development stage. PVT/JVs numbers are available with
DGH up to 2020, beyond which, various growth rates have
been considered based on historical trend since1995. The
growth rates assumed are - ONGC (- 0.5%), OIL (1.4%), PSC
Regime (1%). The production in the year 2047 would slightly
decline to about 34.44Mtoe from 38 Mtoe in 2012. The share
of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be 70%, 17% and 13%
respectively in the total crude oil production in 2047.
Level 2
A number of IOR/EOR schemes are underway to enhance
production. ONGC would monetise their reserves in the
marginal fields. This is also rendered possible by approval of
the proposal to exempt the production from these fields,
from contributing to under-recoveries of the downstream
companies. Additionally about 35 discoveries which are
under various stages of DOC approvals, approved FDPs/
Level 3
Under this scenario, a number of oil discoveries which are
awaiting appraisal and development are found to be
commercially viable. Marginal fields would supplement the
production. EOR/IOR schemes would be taken up
aggressively. Further, new discoveries from already awarded
NELP blocks, and future OALP acreages would commence
production after 2021. About 50 oil discoveries are under
various stages of approval with DGH. Keeping above
prospects in consideration, following growth rate has been
considered: ONGC 1.0% growth from 2014-15, and 1.5%
from 2017 onwards; OIL 2% from 2017 onwards and under
PSC Regime 1.5% from 2017 onwards. Level 3 assumes
recovery factor of 35% and production level of 67.7 million
tons by 2047. The share of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be
64%, 12% and 24% respectively in the total crude oil
production in 2047.
Level 4
This envisages NOCs registering a continuous growth in oil
production. Share from tight oil and shale oil has been taken
into account. However, this scenario includes technological
alliance with super majors, better R/F, deep-water
exploitation of reserves and no rig availability problems for
deep-water development. Ideal conditions exist for
production. The growth rate of production for ONGC: 1.5%
growth from 2014-15 and 2.0% from 2022 onwards, OIL
(2.5%) from 2017 onwards and PSC Regime (2.0%)-from
2017 onwards. The R/F would be 40% and the crude oil
production rises to around 78 million tons by 2047. The share
of ONGC, OIL and PVT/JVs would be 67%, 12% and 21%
respectively in the total crude oil production in 2047.
90
78
80
70
68
60
59
50
40
35
34
30
20
10
0
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
L-1
54
L-2
Years
L-3
L-4
Level 1
No planned generation plants with CCS till 2025 - resultantly
the rate of CCS technology deployment will be less.
Generation with CCS usage till 2025 will be negligible and
start stoincrease, but at very slow pace due to lack of
efficient and cheap technology. Generation with CCS usage
will increase to 8 GW by 2047 from 0 GW in 2012. High cost of
CCS technology becomes a deterrent in its adoption. The
electricity generation in 2047 would be 42.2 TWh.
Level 3
The amount of CCS-equipped capacity grows rapidly. The
absolute growth rate in capture-equipped capacity occurs
between 2030 and 2040. Going by International Energy
Agency's roadmap for CCS technology 2013, India will target
generation capacity with CCS of 3 GW till 2022 and will
increase to 80 GW till 2047. The electricity generation in
2047 would be 423.3 TWh.
Level 4
More generation plants with CCS technology will be
deployed as an outcome of technology up gradation and
reduction in capital requirement. India will begin
constructing its own demonstration scale facilities, and more
ambitious CCS projects. India will target generation capacity
with CCS of 5 GW till 2022 that increases to 90 GW by 2047.
The electricity generation in 2047 would be 475.2 TWh.
Level 2
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90
80
35
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
55
Level 1
assumes thatIndia's integration with regional grids is
poor. One implication of this is, that India is unable to tap
the hydro potential in the Himalayan States, that may
have helped balance our grid. Resultantly, imports
continue to be low, as projects planned are delayed. An
increase in electricity imports of 3GW during 13th Plan
(2017-22) is likely as some of the under construction
projects will be completed and thereafter will reach 7GW
by 2042 and 10GW by 2047.
Level 2
Level 3
assumes aggressive growth in imports and assumes India
imports maximum power from Bhutan and Nepal and will
meet its 8GW target envisaged in 13th Plan by 2022; India
will import 30GW by 2032 as it is assumed that 75 Hydro
Electric Projects (HEP) with a capacity of 25GW proposed
in Bhutan will be completed by 2030 and will export
electricity to India. Electricity import will be 55GW by
2042 as it is assumed that Nepal will commission its
23GW HEP projects and will export to India. This will be
maintained at same level till 2047.
Level 4
assumes optimistic growth in imports and assumes
power import from other countries apart from Bhutan
and Nepal as well. Target of 8 GW envisaged in 13th Plan
will be achieved in 12th Plan itself. It is assumed that
Nepal will explore its economical hydro potential of
42GW and export large volumes of electricity to India.
Imports may go up to 50 GW by 2042 and will reach 60GW
by 2047.
80
70
60
60
55
50
40
30
30
20
10
10
0
56
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 3
assumes aggressive growth in export, India will export 1.5
GW during 13th five year plan. With accelerated
completion of pending projects between Bangladesh and
Pakistan, phase 1 & 2 of bipolar HVDC line between India
& Sri Lanka completed during 13th& 14th five year plan,
India will export 2.5GW by 2027, 5GW by 2042 and 6GW
by 2047.
Level 1
assumes that export continues to be low as India will be
focusing more on meeting domestic demand. Electricity
export will be of 1.5GW during 14th Plan (2022-27) as
some of the under construction projects in Pakistan and
Bangladesh will be completed (thereby, obviating the
need to import electricity), and thereafter will reach
2GW by 2037 and remain same till 2047.
Level 4
assumes optimistic growth in exports and assumes
power export to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. It is
assumed that proposed transmission infrastructure and
power stations projects will be completed and lot many
projects will be allocated for export of power to various
countries. India will export 7GW by 2042 and 10GW by
2047.
Level 2
assumes export continue to grow at a moderate pace and
it is assumed that phase 1 of bipolar High Voltage Direct
Current (HVDC) line between India and Sri Lanka will be
10
12
10
6
8
4
6
4
2
0
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
57
Level 1
Only a marginal improvement in T&D losses is assumed,
which is currently at 22.69% on all India basis as of May
2013. Owing to financial losses of distribution utilities,
investments towards strengthening the grid are minimal
and hence the reduction in T&D losses would not be
significant and will only reduce to 15.94% till 2047 out of
which distribution losses will be 10.94% and transmission
loss will reduce to 5%.
Level 3
It is assumed that the investments are made as envisaged
in the India Smart Grid Roadmap, towards achieving the
stated goals of reduction in losses, demand response and
integration of renewable energy. Building on the success
of the pilot projects, various technologies are leveraged
under a clean energy policy drive to achieve financially
viable and sustainable Smart Grids. The T&D losses would
reduce to below 12% by 2027 out of which distribution
losses will be 7% and transmission losses will be 5% and
would reach around the global benchmark of 7% by 2047
of which transmission losses will be 3% and distribution
losses will be 4%.
Level 4
An aggressive drive is adopted by the dynamic 21st
century India, towards achieving sustainable economic
growth, energy independence and energy security.
Reforms in the transmission and distribution sectors are
carried out via elimination of cross-subsidies, innovative
and competitive tariff structures, increased private
participation in electricity business, electric vehicles,
real-time energy markets, bi-directional flow of
electricity and prosumer enablement. The global
benchmark of 7% T&D losses is achieved by 2042 of which
transmission losses will be 3% and distribution losses will
be 4% and maintained thereafter till 2047.
Level 2
Although the 14 Smart Grid pilot projects demonstrate
the benefits of Smart Grid technologies at the pilot scale,
a pan India large-scale deployment of Smart Grid
technologies is assumed to happen at a relatively low
rate. Projecting based on conservative estimates of
30%
24.67%
25%
T&D Loss
20%
15.94%
15%
10%
10.00%
7.20%
5%
0%
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Year
Level 1
58
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
2042
2047
Level 3
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 116 GW by 2022 and 823 GW by 2047. In
addition to new technologies envisaged for level 2,
partnership between India and other countries for smart
grids and energy storage technologies will emerge and
brings out some new and low cost batteries with higher
performance parameters. Wind farms uses CAES
(compressed air energy storage) for storage of energy
during off peak hours, solar panel uses molten salt
batteries. Opportunities for new project development
and manufacturing emerges in India. Telecom sector will
also take a lead in replacing their diesel generators with
hybrid solution of solar and batteries. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 25GW by 2022, 40GW
by 2032, 80GW by 2042 and 100GW by 2047.
Level 1
Renewable share (capacity) in total energy mix in India is
13.1% (36GW) of total installed capacity as on March,
2015 and this is expected to increase to 63 GW by 2022
and 140 GW by 2047. With limited investments in
research and development of low cost and efficient
battery technologies, the cost of batteries remain high
resulting in less commercialization, poor adoption of
battery storage. Pumped storage hydro power continues
to dominate the energy storage in India. Total grid
connected storage in India will be 5GW by 2022 growing
to 8GW by 2032 and 10GW by 2042 and 15GW by 2047.
Level 4
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 206 GW by 2022 and 1530 GW by 2047.
India will attain its potential of 20 GW by 2020. As per
India Smart Grid roadmap, micro grids will be
implemented in 10,000 villages and 100 smart cities till
2027, batteries will play a major role in these
deployment. Wind mills will be integrated with hydro
pump storage systems to operate them. India will follow
IEA breakthrough scenario and total grid connected
storage in India will be 40GW by 2022, growing to 60GW
by 2032, 100GW by 2042 and 130GW by 2047.
Level 2
Renewable share in total energy mix in India is expected
to increase to 96 GW by 2022 and 491 GW by 2047. V2G
(Vehicle to Grid) technologies will be maturing to offer
storage solutions as large fleet of connected EV's
(Electrical Vehicle's) will operate in VPP (Virtual Power
Plant) mode. More share of pump storage will be
developed. Various storage technologies on pilot basis
140
130
120
100
100
75
80
60
40
20
15
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Year
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
59
60
Level 1
A pessimistic scenario. Assumes that due to logistical,
infrastructural and financial bottlenecks, the 24x7 target
to provide electricity to all is unmet in both the
Residential as well as the Commercial sectors by the year
2047. The grid is unable to meet 20% and 15% of the
electricity requirements even in the year 2047, a
proportion of which is supplied by local diesel backup.
Level 2
A moderately better scenario than level 1. Assumes that
the 24x7 target to provide electricity to all is met by the
year 2042 in the Residential sector as well as the
Commercial sector.
Level 3
An aggressive scenario. Assumes that the 24x7 target to
provide electricity to all is met by the year 2032 in the
Residential sector as well as the Commercial sector.
Level 4
Attainment of the goal of the Government:
Assumes that the 24x7 target to provide electricity to all is
met by the year 2022 in the Residential sector as well as
the Commercial sector.
Section 3
Example Pathways
Energy Demand
It is obvious that the rst eort to reduce
energy imports ought to be made on curbing
energy demand itself. Therefore, in this
pathway, we assume that the energy sector
makes 'Heroic eorts' in all energy consuming
62
18635
12436
11824
9292
4929
2012
Buildings
2017
Industry
2022
Transport
2027
2032
2037
2042
Telecom
2047
Cooking
Energy Supply
On the supply side, this pathway would
envisage moderate reduc on in demand for
fossil fuel, raising of domes c produc on of all
fuels and higher uptake of new technologies
such as second genera on bio-fuels, including
micro and macro algal fuels. This scenario
would naturally envisage large uptake of
renewable energy as India has unlimited
availability of solar power and a huge wind
poten al. However, the volume of renewable
energy that can be ramped up would depend
on the challenges of grid balancing, and
integra on of renewable energy in the grid.
Even demand side interven ons are important
in determining fuel choices. For example, the
transport sector op ons of Electric Vehicles
and CNG fuelled vehicles in preference over
petrol/diesel vehicles would be essen al in
uptake of electricity/gas. The choice of
produc on technology in Industries would
drive energy demand for par cular fuels
(gas/electricity in place of solid fuel such as
coal in steel/cement industries). Within the
Energy Supply
30000
25557
25000
20000
16564
15000
10000
17337
13614
7082
5000
0
-5000
2012
2017
2022
Balance
2027
Natural gas
2032
Oil
2037
Coal
2042
2047
4.000
3.000
Bioenergy
3.5
2.000
60%
2500
50%
2000
40%
1500
30%
1000
20%
500
10%
0%
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
Share of Renwables
2047
Imports
The current share of imports in the primary
energy mix of the country is 31%. This is
expected to rise to 57% in the default scenario.
The MESP reduces energy demand by heroic
eorts, which addresses the import situa on
to a large extent on its own. Then, owing to
large addi ons to domes c energy produc on
by higher level choices on coal and other
sources of energy (renewable energy
included), the domes c supply also ramps up.
In the MESP, the import dependence comes
down from 31% in 2012 to 22% in 2047.
0.000
2012
2017
Total
Bio Energy
Gas
21%
18%
2012
2017
22%
10%
4%
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
Overall
2047
Emissions
This pathway, due to its increasing emphasis
on Renewable Energy sources a ains a
reduc on in emissions as a co-benet of
a d d re s s i n g i m p o r t d e p e n d e n c e . T h e
Greenhouse Gas emissions per capita increase
64
3.2
2047
10.6
4.3
0.2
0.2
Your Pathway
Oil
2042
6.1
2.5
Renewables
72%
31%
2037
6.0
0.0
Coal
2032
Conventional
77%
2027
Import Dependence
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2022
Area in M ha
3000
2012
1.7
1.000
Electricity Generation
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Costs
The cost implica ons of this pathway would be
explained in a two-fold manner. Firstly, on the
demand side, due to an increase in energy
eciency and electrica on, the economy as a
whole would be a net saver in terms of costs, as
lesser energy would be required to supply the
same amount of services. It needs to be kept in
mind that the IESS, 2047 is an eciency
calculator and not one of costs. The IESS does
not include the infrastructure costs associated
-284
-321
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
19
2
12
22
19
13
0
50
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Maximum Energy Security
Pathway gives a rosy picture for the Indian
energy sector in the year 2047, wherein import
dependence dras cally falls even from the
present level of 31% of the primary energy
demand in 2012 to 22% in 2047. Both demand
and supply sectors work in unison, in rst
reducing energy demand and then, supplying
it largely by domes c sources. In many ways,
this pathway is nearly similar to Maximum
Energy Security Pathway, as both pathways
65
Energy Demand
It is obvious that the rst eort in the energy
strategy of the economy ought to be towards
curbing energy demand itself. If due to
demand side interven ons, the country can
66
18635
11824
12436
9292
4929
2012
Balance
2017
Cooking
2022
Telecom
2027
2032
Pumps& Tractors
2037
Transport
2042
2047
Industry
Energy Supply
On the supply side, this pathway would
envisage reduc on in demand for fossil fuel, a
shi in the supply mix away from conven onal
e n e r g y a n d a h i g h e r u p t a ke o f n e w
technologies such as second genera on biofuels, including micro and macro algal fuels.
This scenario would naturally envisage
maximum uptake of renewable energy as India
has unlimited availability of solar power and a
huge wind poten al. However, the volume of
renewable energy that can be ramped up
would depend on the challenges of grid
balancing, and integra on of renewable
energy in the grid. Even demand side
interven ons are important in determining
fuel choices. For example, the transport sector
op ons of Electric Vehicles and CNG fuelled
vehicles in preference over petrol/diesel
Energy Supply
30000
25557
25000
20000
16564
15000
10000
17337
13614
7082
5000
0
-5000
2012
2017
2022
Balance
2027
Natural gas
2032
Oil
2037
Coal
2042
2047
Bioenergy
Electricity Generation
3000
60%
4.000
2500
50%
3.000
2000
40%
1500
30%
1000
20%
500
10%
0.000
2012
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
Share of Renwables
2047
2017
Imports
Bio Energy
Renewables
77%
6.1
2.5
3.2
5.3
0.3
0.2
0.0
77%
11.6
6.0
Conventional
Import Dependence
2.0
Your Pathway
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Coal
Oil
31%
21%
18%
26%
23%
13%
Costs
Gas
Overall
Emissions
The Maximum Clean and Renewable Energy
pathway, as the name suggests contributes to
a large decrease in the emissions for India ll
68
1.7
1.000
0%
2012
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3.2
2.000
-271
-326
-400
-300
-200
-100
18
2
12
22
38
13
0
100
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Maximum Clean and
Renewable Energy Pathway lays out the
69
70
Section 4
Demand in 2012
(TWh)
% Savings
Buildings
238
2287
1540
33%
Industry
2370
10430
6912
34%
Transport
929
4414
2975
33%
Pumps& Tractors
237
798
533
33%
Telecom
83
184
66
64%
Cooking
1072
522
410
21%
Total
4929
18635
12436
33%
% Savings
2377
2034
14%
2264
5%
1864
22%
2004
16%
Heroic Effort
1370
42%
From the above analysis, the user can observe how much each sub-sector in the Passenger
Transport segment contributes individually to reducing the energy demand for the sector. The line
item for Heroic Eort talks about how much reduc on in energy demand is possible for the
Passenger Transport segment if all subsectors collec vely feed into each other at the Heroic Eort
level.
Heroic Effort on
Demand Side
% Savings
1986
2078
(5%)
13159
7770
41%
Oil
6832
4434
35%
Natural Gas
2075
1753
16%
Bioenergy
1413
1413
25465
17448
31%
Total
72
Determined Effort on
Demand Side
3638
2560
Coal
6210
7263
Oil
4194
4194
Natural Gas
1563
1675
Bioenergy
1732
1732
Total
17337
17424
Determined Effort
Pathway
% Savings
Industry
5935
3559
40%
Transport
1118
709
37%
Agriculture
72
43
40%
Telecom
37
92%
Thermal Generation
2678
1409
47%
Bioenergy
-304
-363
(19%)
93
93
109
73
33%
9738
5526
43%
Coal
18%
59%
10%
Oil
77%
88%
72%
Gas
23%
44%
4%
Overall
31%
57%
22%
73
Demand Demand
(2012)- (2047)TWh
TWh
74
Implications
Demand in TWh
Import
Demand/
Demand/ Renewable
Emissions/ Emissions/
Dependence Capita (2012) Capita (2047)
Energy
Capita
Capita
Penetration
(2012) (2047)KWh/Capita KWh/Capita
Least Effort
4929
22140
4053
12991
6%
84%
1.7
7.9
Determined
Effort
4929
18634
4053
10934
26%
58%
1.7
5.7
Heroic
Effort
4929
12436
4053
7297
39%
34%
1.7
4.3
Maximum
Energy
Security
4929
12436
4053
7297
40%
22%
1.7
3.5
Maximum
Clean and
Renewable
Energy
Pathway
4929
12436
4053
7927
49%
26%
1.7
3.2
Determined 4929
Effort
Overall and
Heroic Effort
on Electric
Vehicles
18262
4053
10716
25%
57.10%
1.7
5.68
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Shift to
Public
Transport
4929
18121
4053
10634
26%
56.50%
1.7
5.62
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Modal Shift
to Rail
Freight
4929
18262
4053
10716
25%
57.00%
1.7
5.68
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Transport
4929
17196
4053
10090
25%
54.90%
1.7
5.5
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Fuel
Switching
in Industry
4929
16976
4053
9961
23%
56.40%
1.7
5.17
Scenario
Implications
Demand in TWh
Demand Demand
(2012)- (2047)TWh
TWh
Import
Demand/
Demand/ Renewable
Emissions/ Emissions/
Dependence Capita (2012) Capita (2047)
Energy
Capita
Capita
Penetration
(2012) (2047)KWh/Capita KWh/Capita
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Industry
4929
15117
4053
8870
25%
51%
1.7
4.36
Determined
Effort
Overall and
Heroic
Effort in
Buildings
4929
17840
4053
10468
31%
53%
1.7
5.21
75
NOTES
76
NOTES
77
NOTES
78
Supporting Partners