PUTTING WORDS INTO ACTION

I am surprised to witness the reaction of the Great Powers to the interference of

Brazil and Turkey in their nuclear affairs. One could almost think that there are
those who are worried about the possibility of a win-win agreement being
reached regarding Iran and its enrichment of Uranium. Thinking a little bit
outside the box, one could even find a parallelism between the rush to impose
sanctions to the Islamic Republic and that to invade Iraq and bring Saddam
down.

It is evident (as it is already past) that Iran was not on the verge of making an
atomic bomb last week. There was, to say the least, a few days margin before we
had to react to the announcement of the agreement. The voracity with which
the diplomatic sharks reacted might raise suspicions that the objectives some
Powers pursue have nothing to do with World Security and Common Prosperity
and much with carrying out pre-established policies. Enrichment of Uranium
would, for them, be just an excuse.

Not that I think that the agreement makes a lot of sense myself. I will explain.
Iran, far from being a rival for the US, Russia or China – all of them much
bigger that himself – has direct competitor in Turkey and Saudi Arabia (I have
always thought that the main concern and source of arrests for a soldier is not
the General but the Corporal or Sergeant who is closer to him). Iran is a rival of
Turkey for hegemony in the Southern Caucasus area and the Middle East. With
the Saudi kingdom, rivalry is both religious and economic. Let us not forget that
Iran is Persian and not Arabic. Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia represent the
three axes in the region.

Why would Turkey want to solve Iran’s problema and provide him – at least
potentially – with the possibility to become a nuclear power and the
undisputable leader of the region? Which interest might an officially lay regime
have in supporting initiatives from a theocratic nation? Why should Turkey
ignore NATO’s official thesis when they are a distinguished member of the
Alliance?

Brazil, on its part, may have good reasons to support the agreement. They may
not be the reasons they have used. They may not be as altruist or casual, but
they are good reason for a politician. Maybe not just “any” politician, but fair
enough for “good old Lula”. Because President Da Silva steps down from Office
by Xmas but there is more to “Lula” than just President Da Silva. “Lula” is a
character for history who goes beyond the achievements reached by President
Da Silva. Is there a commercial interest on the part of Brazil regarding the
commerce of Uranium? Does the agreement go in line with a Brazilian Foreign
Policy which lately includes nuclear submarines and being in the group of
nations – be them OPEC or not – with huge energy surpluses? Will that have
anything to do with “Lula”’s will to transcend President Da Silva in history? or,
might it be that there are countries who have really believed that the G-20 is a
much more logical formula than the UNSC and they think that a multipolar
multilateralism is possible?
If this was the case, there might be Emerging Powers who think that they have
the same right as any other to participate in World Affairs without having
necessarily to engage in consultations (much as it happened to them before).

This would be a real revolution in Global Governance. It could lead Brazil – who
we already used as an example – to lead initiatives in South America seeking the
good for the sub-continent and disregarding external actors who might
misguide them. This could also lead China and Russia to use the SCO (Shanghai
Cooperation Organization) to ensure stability – even if understood their own
way – in Central Asia (stability which might include acknowledging, in a matter
of hours, the interim Government of a nation after a coup which has deposed a
third-country-supported Government).

I believe it merits a new paragraph (here you have it) the role the EU should
play in her own zone of influence. Assuming she had decided which her interests
were, assuming she was able to detach them from those of her partners and that
she had the political will to pursue them.

Finally. Another key player in the area is Pakistan. The stability of the nation,
the counterweight it means for India and its role as a Nuclear Power are factor
we need to ponder everytime a word is written or spoken about Iran.

I wouldn’t be surprised if history related “wikis” a few years from now had the
audacious movement by Brazil in a highlighted paragraph. We will see.