Activity scheduling analysis

Time Estimates
Activity
to
tm
tp
1-2
9
12
21
1-3
6
12
18
2-4
1
1.5
5
3-4
4
8.5
10
2-5
10
14
24
4-5
1
2
3
1.Determine the critical path
2.Calculate the slack for each event.
3.Obtain critical and slack paths.
4.Compute the activity float.

Average
13
12
2
8
15
2

Critical path = 1-2-5

Slack for each event
Event

1
2
3
4
5

Earliest
operating
time
0
13
12
20
28

Critical path =1-2-5

Latest
operating
time
0
13
18
26
28

Slack=LOTEOT
0
0
6
6
0

All others are slack paths where some cushion is

available.
Activity floats
Total float
Extra time available for an activity if it is started as
early as possible without delaying the completion
of the project.
Say float for activity [ i-j ], where I and j are events
and if d (I,j) represents the activity time
= LOT (j)- EOT( i) d (i,j)
Float available under most favorable conditions.
Activities which do not have even total float are
critical activities.
Free Float
Extra time available for an activity if it is started as
early as possible competed at the earliest, without
delaying the project.
= EOT (j) - EOT( i) d (i,j)
Independent Float
= EOT (j)- LOT( i) d (i,j)
Float under the most favorable conditions. A
positive independent float implies that the activity

has a cushion independent of what happens

elsewhere.
Activi
ty
1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
2-5
4-5

LOT
(j)
13
18
26
26
28
28

EOT(
j)
13
12
20
20
28
28

LOT(
i)
0
0
13
18
13
26

EOT(
i)
0
0
13
12
13
20

Time(i
,j)
13
12
2
8
15
2

TF FF
0
6
11
6
0
6

Scheduling when resources are limited

Activity

duration

1-2
13
1-3
12
2-4
2
3-4
8
2-5
15
4-5
2
total
Budgeted Release
Year 1- 69.00
Year 2- 68.00

Cost per total cost

month
@Rs. in
lakhs
2.00
26.00
5.00
60.00
10.00
20.00
2.50
20.00
1.00
15.00
7.50
15.00
156.00

0
0
5
0
0
6

IF
0
0
5
-6
0
0

Year 3- 19.00
Problems in scheduling Real life projects
- Number of activities are more
o Use linear program whenever there are multiple
constraints
o Heuristic programs
Rule of thumb
Computer programs
Schedule critical activities first
Schedule activity with largest
independent float in the end.
Resource leveling programs
Resource allocation programs
PERT Analysis
- Measures of variability
o = [to- tp]/6,
o Variance = 2 = [ to-tp]2/ 36
o Mean of the critical path duration
o Standard deviation of critical path duration
= [Sum of variances of individual activity]
- Assuming that the critical path duration is normally
distributed
o A number of inferences can be made.
- Eg: In the following example compute the
stad.deviation of critical path duration and determine
the probability that the activity will be completed
within 26 weeks?

Critical path = 1-2-5

Mean duration = = 28 weeks
Computation of standard deviation of
individual activities
Activity
1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
2-5
4-5

to
9
6
1
4
10
1

Time Estimates

tm
tp
12
21
2
12
18
2
1.5
5
0.66
8.5
10
1
14
24
2.33
2
3
0.33

4
4
0.44
1
5.44
0.11

Variance of the critical path duration = sum of the

variances of duration of activities on the critical path
=variance of 1-2 +variance of 2-5
= 4+5.44 = 9.44
Std. deviation = 3.073
Z value = standard score equivalent to 26 weeks =
[26-28]/3.073= -0.65
Probability of completing within 26 weeks from
normal distribution table = 0.2578 = 25.78%
CPM Analysis
- The PERT approach is probabilistic whereas CPM
approach is deterministic.

- The main thrust of CPM analysis is on time-cost

relationships as it seeks to determine the project
schedule which minimizes total cost.
Assumptions underlying CPM analysis are :
1. The costs associated can be divided into two
components : direct costs and indirect costs.
2. Direct costs are incurred on direct material and direct
labour .
3. Indirect costs consist of overhead items like indirect
supplies , rent insurance , managerial services etc.
4. Activities of the project can be expedited by crashing
which involves employing more resources.
5. Crashing reduces time but enhances direct costs
because of factors like overtime payments , extra
payments etc.the relationship between time and
direct activity cost can be reasonably approximated
by a downward sloping straight line.
6. Indirect costs increase linearly with project duration.
Procedure
1. Obtain the critical path in the normal network.
Determine the project duration and the normal cost.
2. Examine the cost-time slope of activities on the
critical path obtained and crash the activity which
has the least slope.
3. Construct the new critical path after crashing as per
step 2. Determine project duration and cost.
4. Repeat steps 2 and 3 till activities on the critical path
are crashed.

Illustration

Activit
y

1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
2-5
4-5
total

Normal
Crash Normal Crash Crashin
duration duratio
costcostg
n
Direct Direc Cost/we
t
ek
13
10 15000 1900
1333
0
12
8 13000 1700
1000
0
2
1
6000 8000
2000
8
5
9000 1350
1500
0
15
12 21000 2400
1000
0
2
1
6000 3000
3000
70000 8450
0

Indirect cost @Rs. 1000/- per week

Normal cost for 28 weeks = direct cost +indirect cost=
70000+28000 =98000
Crash results-1

Activity
1-2
1-3

Normal
Crash
duration duration
13
10
12
8

cost
15000
13000

Crash
cost
19000
17000

2-4
3-4
2-5
4-5
total

2
8
12
2

1
5
1

6000
9000
24000
6000
73000

8000
13500
3000
84500

Critical path = 1-2-5

Completion time =25 weeks
Total cost = 73000+25000 = 98000
Crash results-2

Activity
1-2
1-3
2-4
3-4
2-5
4-5
total

Normal
Crash
duration duration
10
12
8
2
1
8
5
12
2
1

cost
19000
13000
6000
9000
24000
6000
77000

Crash
cost
17000
8000
13500
3000
84500

Critical path
Both 1-2-5 and 1-3-4-8
No further crashing is possible on the critical path.
Completion time =22 weeks
Total cost = 77000+22000 = 99000
Result : optimum week for completion = 25 weeks ,
cost =Rs.98000

Class / home assignments (from Prasanna

Chandra)
1.A project consists of 12 activities and their
time estimates are shown below:

Activity
1-2
1-3
1-4
1-7
2-4
2-6
2-7
3-4
4-5
5-6
3-7
6-7

to
4
3
5
2
6
3
5
3
2
1
2
1

Time in weeks
tm
tp
6
10
7
12
6
9
4
6
10
20
4
7
9
15
7
12
4
5
3
6
5
8
2
6

Required:
a.Draw the network diagram
b.Determine the critical path
c. Calculate event slacks and activity floats
d.Find the standard deviation of the critical
path duration

e.Compute the probability of completing

project in 30 weeks

2. The normal and crash times and direct costs for

the activities of a project are shown below:
Activity
1-2
2-4
1-3
3-4
4-7
3-5
4-6
6-7
7-9
5-9
total

Time in
normal
5
6
4
7
9
12
10
7
6
12

weeks
crash
2
3
2
4
5
3
6
4
4
7

Cost in Rs.
Normal
Crash
6000
9000
7000 10000
1000
4000
6000
16000
15000
4000
3000
4000

2000
8000
9200
19600
18000
4900
4200
8500

a. Draw the network diagram

b. Determine the normal and critical path
c. Find the minimum cost project schedule if the
indirect costs are @Rs.1000/- per week.