ThankyouVasiliArkhipov,themanwho

stoppednuclearwar
EdwardWilson
Fiftyyearsago,Arkhipov,aseniorofficerontheSovietB59
submarine,refusedpermissiontolaunchitsnucleartorpedo

VasiliArkhipov,whodiedin1998
Saturday27October201211.00BST
LastmodifiedonThursday31December201522.57GMT

fyouwerebornbefore27October1962,VasiliAlexandrovich

Arkhipovsavedyourlife.Itwasthemostdangerousdayinhistory.An
AmericanspyplanehadbeenshotdownoverCubawhileanotherU2had
gotlostandstrayedintoSovietairspace.Asthesedramasratcheted
tensionsbeyondbreakingpoint,anAmericandestroyer,theUSSBeale,

begantodropdepthchargesontheB59,aSovietsubmarinearmedwitha
nuclearweapon.
ThecaptainoftheB59,ValentinSavitsky,hadnowayofknowingthat
thedepthchargeswerenonlethal"practice"roundsintendedaswarning
shotstoforcetheB59tosurface.TheBealewasjoinedbyotherUS
destroyerswhopiledintopummelthesubmergedB59withmore
explosives.TheexhaustedSavitskyassumedthathissubmarinewas
doomedandthatworldwarthreehadbrokenout.HeorderedtheB59's
tenkilotonnucleartorpedotobepreparedforfiring.ItstargetwastheUSS
Randolf,thegiantaircraftcarrierleadingthetaskforce.
IftheB59'storpedohadvaporisedtheRandolf,thenuclearcloudswould
quicklyhavespreadfromseatoland.Thefirsttargetswouldhavebeen
Moscow,London,theairbasesofEastAngliaandtroopconcentrationsin
Germany.Thenextwaveofbombswouldhavewipedout"economic
targets",aeuphemismforcivilianpopulationsmorethanhalftheUK
populationwouldhavedied.Meanwhile,thePentagon'sSIOP,Single
IntegratedOperationalPlanadoomsdayscenariothatechoedDr
Strangelove'sorgiasticGtterdmmerungwouldhavehurled5,500
nuclearweaponsagainstathousandtargets,includingonesinnon
belligerentstatessuchasAlbaniaandChina.
WhatwouldhavehappenedtotheUSitselfisuncertain.Theveryreason
thatKhrushchevsentmissilestoCubawasbecausetheSovietUnion
lackedacrediblelongrangeICBMdeterrentagainstapossibleUSattack.
ItseemslikelythatAmericawouldhavesufferedfarfewercasualtiesthan
itsEuropeanallies.ThefactthatBritainandwesternEuropewereregarded
bysomeinthePentagonasexpendablepawnsacrificeswasthegreat
unmentionableofthecoldwar.
Fiftyyearson,whatlessonscanbedrawnfromtheCubanmissilecrisis?
Oneisthatgovernmentslosecontrolinacrisis.Theworstnightmarefor
USdefencesecretaryRobertMcNamarawastheunauthorisedlaunchofa
nuclearweapon.McNamaraorderedthatPALlocks(PermissiveAction
Links)befittedtoallICBMs.ButwhenthePALswereinstalled,the
StrategicAirCommandhadallthecodessetto00000000sothatthelocks

wouldnotimpedeaquicklaunchinacrisis.Nuclearweaponssecuritywill
alwaysbeahumanissueatalllevels.Ononeoccasion,JimmyCarter,
thesanestofUSpresidents,leftnuclearlaunchcodesinhissuitwhenit
wassenttothedrycleaners.
Thecoldwarhasended,butthethermonuclearinfrastructuresoftheUS
andRussiaarestillinplace.Andtheriskofanuclearexchangebetween
thesuperpowersremainsveryreal.In1995Russianearlywarningradar
mistookaNorwegianweatherrocketforaballisticmissilelaunchedfrom
anAmericansubmarine.AnemergencysignalwassenttoPresident
Yeltsin's"Cheget",thenuclearsuitcasewithlaunchcodes.Yeltsin,
presumablywithvodkacloseathand,hadlessthanfiveminutestomakea
decisiononaretaliatorystrike.
"Aslongasnuclearweaponsexist,thechancesofsurvivalofthehuman
speciesarequiteslight."Everystudyoflongtermriskanalysissupports
NoamChomsky'sclaim.Ploughsharesestimatesthereare19,000warheads
intheworldtoday,18,000ofwhichareinthehandsoftheUSandRussia.
Whatevertheexactnumbers,theAmerican/Russiannucleararsenalsare
theonlyonescapableoftotallydestroyingallhumanlife.Assecurity
analystsCampbellCraigandJanRuzickapointout:"WhyshouldIranor
NorthKorearespectnonproliferationwhenthemostpowerfulstates
lecturingthempossesssuchenormousarsenals?"
Mostofall,theCubanmissilecrisisshowedthattheweaponsthemselves
aretheproblem.Britainisnowinpolepositiontoleada"nuclear
disarmamentrace".Ina2009lettertotheTimes,FieldMarshalLord
BramallandGeneralsLordRamsbothamandSirHughBeachdenounced
Tridentas"completelyuseless".Ditchingthesystemmaybeanobrainer
forthegenerals,butnotforpoliticiansafraidofapublicopinionthat
equatesnuclearweaponswithvaguenotionsof"beingstrong".Andyet
gettingridofTridentwouldgifttheTreasuryawindfallofmorethan
25bnenoughtofinanceamillionaffordablehomes.
ThedecisionnottostartworldwarthreewasnottakenintheKremlinor
theWhiteHouse,butintheswelteringcontrolroomofasubmarine.The
launchoftheB59'snucleartorpedorequiredtheconsentofallthree

seniorofficersaboard.Arkhipovwasaloneinrefusingpermission.Itis
certainthatArkhipov'sreputationwasakeyfactorinthecontrolroom
debate.Thepreviousyeartheyoungofficerhadexposedhimselftosevere
radiationinordertosaveasubmarinewithanoverheatingreactor.That
radiationdoseeventuallycontributedtohisdeathin1998.Sowhenwe
raiseourglasseson27Octoberwecanonlytoasthismemory.Thankyou,
Vasya.