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CHENANI NASHRI TUNNELWAY LIMITED

Ref No: CNTL/PRJ/TEC/ICO-581/7612

Date: 29th May 2013

M/S Euroestudios Consulting Engineer


Ekta Vihar Rount, Near Housing Colony
Udhampur-182101
PH No: 01992277950 Fax: 01992276950
Attention: Mr. Valentin Salcedo
Job

: Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project.

Subject

: Traffic Study for Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project.

Reference: Your letter no. S-CO-TE.RO-1346 dated 26.05.2013.

Dear Sir,
With reference to the above referred letter. We are enclosing herewith traffic study report for
Chenani Nashri Tunnel Project which was conducted between 09.04.2013 to 16.04.2013.
This is for your review please.
Thanking You
Yours Faithfully,
For Chenani Nashri Tunnelway Limited

J S Rathore
(Project Director)
Encl: Traffic Study Report
Cc: Sh. R P Singh, Project Director, NHAI
Mr. Bruce Neave, Project Director- LWIN

Site office: CNTL, C/o Hotel Maharaja Resorts ,Padora Enclave Near Greentop hotel ,Village Karlah,Patnitop
Distt Udhampur -182142 (J&K)
Registered office: The IL&FS financial centre, plot C-22, Bandra Kurla Complex Bandra East,Mumbai400051 Phone: 022-26533333 fax: 022-26523979

IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS


LIMITED

CHENANI - NASHRI ROAD TUNNEL


PROJECT IN THE STATE OF
JAMMU & KASHMIR

NASHRI

DODA

BATOTE

PATNITOP
KUD

CHENANI

Fi l Traffic
Final
T ffi Report
R
t
May 2013

STC

SHWETA TECHNOPHILE CONSULTANTS PVT LTD

Chenani Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

CONTENTS
S.no.

Description

1.0

INTRODUCTION

1-2

1.1

General

1-1

1.2

Objective

1-1

1.3

Scope of Work

1-1

1.4

Project Submission

1-2

2.0

TRAFFIC STUDIES

2-1 to 2-22

2.1

Traffic Survey and Analysis

2-1

2.2

Project Background

2-1

2.3

Traffic Surveys

2-1

2.4

Traffic Characteristics

2-5

2.5

Travel Characteristics

2-13

3.0

Contents

Pages

TRAFFIC FORECAST

3-1 to 3-20

3.1

Approach to Traffic Forecast

3-1

3.2

Past trends in Demographics and Socio-Economic Parameters

3-2

3.3

Estimation of Traffic Growth Rate for normal Traffic

3-7

3.4

Traffic Volume Projections

3-20

Traffic Report

Chenani Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

TABLES

Contents

2.1

Traffic Survey Schedule

2-2

2.2

Vehicle Classification Systems

2-3

2.3

Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Survey locations

2-5

2.4

Observed Peak Hour Traffic Characteristics

2-6

2.5

Directional Distribution (in PCU) on project road (%)

2-7

2.6

Traffic composition at surveyed location (%)

2-10

2.7

Toll Exempted Vehicles at Survey Locations (%)

2-10

2.8

AADT for the Project Road

2-12

2.9

VDF at Survey Location at Km-73 on NH-1A

2-13

2.10

Adopted Zoning System for Project Road

2-14

2.11

Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 73 (in Percentage)

2-18

2.12

Distribution of trips in Project influence area at Km 130 (in Percentage)

2-19

2.13(a)

Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicle At Km 73

2-20

2.13(b) Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicle At Km 130

2-20

2.14(a)

Vehicle Wise Commodity Distribution In Percentage (Km73)

2-21

2.14(b)

Vehicle Wise Commodity Distribution In Percentage (Km130)

2-21

3.1

India - National Income (1993-94 Prices) [Historical]

3-3

3.2

Economic Growth (%) During Different Periods (constant 1993 Prices)

3-4

3.3

Horizon GDP Rates - India

3-4

3.4

J&K NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

3-4

3.5

Punjab NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

3-5

3.6

Rajasthan NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

3-5

3.7

Maharashtra NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

3-6

3.8

Delhi NSDP (2004-05 Prices)

3-6

3.9

Population Trend

3-7

3.10

Per Capita Income Trend

3-7

3.11

Regression Analysis Result With Vehicle Registration Data

3-8

3.12

Traffic Growth rate for project Road

3-9

3.13a

Projected Traffic at Km 90.5

3-10

3.13b

Projected Traffic at Km 130

3-11

3.14

Distribution of Commodities - Export

3-14

3.15

Distribution of Commodities - Import

3-14

3.16

Projected Divertible Traffic to Railways

3-16

3.17

Divertible local traffic from Project Road

3-17

ii

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

TABLES
3.18a

Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 90.5

3-18

3.18b

Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 130

3-19

3.19

Projected Traffic on Tunnel Section

3-20

FIGURES
2.1

Project Road and Surrounding Network

2-2

2.2

Project Road and Traffic Survey Locations

2-3

2.3

Day wise variation of Total Traffic on the Project Road

2-7

2.4

Hourly variation of traffic

2-8

2.5

Traffic Composition on Project Road

2-9

2.6 a

Internal Zones

2-15

2.6 b External Zones

2-16

2.6 c

External Zones

2-16

2.6 d External Zones

2-17

ANNEXURE
2.1

Traffic Formats

2.2

ADT

2.3

Petrol Data

2.4

AADT

2.5

VDF

2.6

OD Matrices & Desire line

3.1

Registered Vehicle data

3.2

Regression Analysis

3.3

Traffic Projection at Normal Growth (Without Diversion and Without Generated


Traffic)

Contents

3.4

Diverted Local Traffic Projection

3.5

Generated Traffic Projection

3.6

Projected Traffic - Tunnel

iii

Traffic Report

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 General
The National Highway Authority of India is engaged in the development of National
Highways and as part of this endeavor, the Authority has undertaken Chenani - Nashri Road
Tunnel Project in the State of
Jammu & Kashmir.
Once entire NH - 1A from
Jammu to Srinagar is four lane
by 2016 17, the journey would
be safe, comfortable and less
time consuming. Further the
railway link from Jammu to
Srinagar would also be available
for users by that time.
M/s

IL&FS

Transportation

Networks Ltd (ITNL), one of


the pioneer contracting firms of
India, has been awarded the
contract for construction of
project road and M/s ITNL has
appointed
M/s
Shweta
Technophile Consultants Pvt
Ltd for carrying out the Traffic
Services to assess the future
traffic on the project road.

1.2 Objective
The main objective of the study
is to assess the traffic on the
proposed alignment.

1.3

Scope of work
The broad scope of work for the study is enlisted below:

Undertake traffic surveys on the highway section

Review of various traffic studies conducted time to time by various agencies along the
project road.

Prepare a realistic traffic model, and estimation of traffic on the proposed alignment.

Introduction

1-1

Traffic Report

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

1.4

STC

Project Submission
The major submission as per the scope is;

Introduction

Traffic Report

1-2

Traffic Report

CHAPTER 2
TRAFFIC STUDIES

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Chapter 2: Traffic Studies


2.1

Traffic Surveys and Analysis


Traffic surveys and their analysis are important factors for planning and designing of the
highways. This sections presents quantum, location and methodology of conducting traffic
surveys and analyses carried out for addressing various objectives and issues pertaining to
traffic on project road.
The traffic study aims at estimating the base year daily traffic and travel characteristics on the
project corridor and forecasting the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for project
horizon year considering various constituent streams namely normal, induced and divertible
traffic on the project road.

2.2

Project Background
The Chenani - Nashri tunnel is a part of planned four-lane widening of the National Highway
1A between Jammu & Srinagar. Once entire NH 1A from Jammu to Srinagar is four lane by
2016 17, it is expected that tollable traffic may increase by many folds on Project Road. As
so many tunnels with alternative routes like railway link from Jammu to Srinagar are
available for road users by that time.
The project highway which is 41 km. (from Km. 89 to Km. 130) passes through Udhampur
and Ramban districts in the state of Jammu & Kashmir.
The alignment of the project road and its surrounding road network is shown in Figure 2.1.

2.3

Traffic Surveys
In order to understand the characteristics and the volume of traffic using the project road, data
on road network and traffic and travel pattern of vehicles plying on the project road was
collected through primary surveys.
The following traffic surveys were conducted in this study:

Directional classified traffic volume count survey to derive the Average Daily Traffic
(ADT) and Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT).
24 hours Origin-Destination (O-D) Survey to assess the existing travel pattern of
vehicles plying on the project road.
24 hour axle load survey to assess the loading characteristics of goods vehicles plying
on the project road.

The count stations at Km. 90.5 and at Km. 130 were considered for surveying purposes for
Volume count for 7 days as detailed in Table 2.1 and graphically represented in Figure 2.2.

Traffic Studies

2-1

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Figure 2.1 Project Road and Surrounding Network

Table 2.1: Traffic Survey Schedule


Period
Type of Survey

Classified Volume
Count

Highway

Location

Duration
From

To

NH-1A

Km. 90.5

7 days

9-4-2013

16-4-2013

NH-1A

Km. 130

7 days

9-4-2013

16-4-2013

NH-1A

Km. 73*

1 day

15-4-2013

16-4-2013

NH-1A

Km. 130

1 day

12-4-2013

13-4-2013

NH-1A

Km. 73*

1 day

15-4-2013

16-4-2013

Origin Destination

Axle load

* OD and Axle load was conducted at km 73 as there was sufficient space to stop the vehicles

Traffic Studies

2-2

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Figure 2.2: Project Road and Traffic Survey Locations

Survey Methodology:
Classified Traffic Volume Counts:
The classified traffic volume count survey has been carried out at two locations representing
north portal and south portal of the road tunnel project. Traffic counts have been recorded
continuously for seven consecutive days for 24 hours on each day for both the points. For
carrying out the counts; the vehicles have been grouped under the following categories as in
Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: Vehicle Classification Systems
Motorised Traffic

Non-Motorised Traffic

2 wheelers, Auto rickshaw (3-wheeler),Passenger Car, Bicycle, Cycle Rickshaw, Animal


Jeep, Taxi & Van, Goods Car, Traveller, School Van
Drawn/Hand Cart
Bus

Mini Bus, Standard Bus (Govt/Private),


School Bus

Trucks

Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV), 2&3


Axle Rigid Chassis Truck (HCV), Multi
Axle Truck (MAV)

Other
Agriculture Tractor, Tractor & Trailer etc.
Vehicles

Traffic Studies

2-3

Toll
Exempted

Government vehicles
(Police, VIP, Fire
Brigade,
Postal
Vehicles etc),
Army vehicles,
Ambulance,
Mortuary Van

Traffic Report

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

For the purpose of counts, a day was


divided into two shifts of 12 hours each
and different groups of enumerators with
a supervisor have been assigned for each
shift. The count data was recorded at 15minute intervals for each vehicle group
for each direction of travel separately.
Hourly totals have been made in the end
of the shift. The Performa used for
recording the information is shown in
Annexure 2.1.
Origin-Destination Survey:
The origin-destination survey has been carried out with the primary objective of studying the
travel pattern of goods and passenger traffic along the study corridor. The results will also be
useful for identifying the influence area of the project road, estimation of divertible traffic,
estimation of tollable traffic, estimating the growth rates of traffic and planning tolling
strategies.
The O-D survey was carried out for one
day. Roadside interview method was
adopted for the survey. The vehicles were
stopped on random sample basis with the
help of Police officials, and trained
enumerators interviewed the drivers to
obtain the required data. During the
surveys, the information pertaining to
origin and destination of the trip, trip
length, frequency, return trip commodity
types, loading pattern and trip purpose as applicable for various vehicle types were recorded.
This trip frequency will be used in the estimation of tollable vehicles. The Performa used for
recording the information is shown in Annexure 2.1.
Axle Load Survey:
The Axle Load survey was carried out
on the project road with the primary
objective of studying the loading pattern
of commercial vehicles along the study
corridor.
The Axle Load survey was carried out
for one day. Axle pad was used to
ascertain the load of the axles. Roadside

Traffic Studies

2-4

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

selection method was adopted for the survey. The vehicles were stopped on random sample
basis with the help of Police and loads on the each axle of the vehicle have been measured to
estimate the loading pattern of the vehicles on the project road. The Performa used for
recording the information is shown in Annexure 2.1.

2.4

Traffic Characteristics
The following traffic characteristics have been presented in the subsequent sections:

Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

Hourly variation and Peak Hour Factor (PHF)

Directional distribution

Traffic composition

Toll Exempted Vehicles

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)


Average Daily Traffic (ADT)
The traffic volume data collected during the surveys was averaged out to arrive at the
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the project road. The summaries of ADT in terms of
vehicles and PCU for both count stations on NH-1A are presented in Table 2.3. The day-wise
details pertaining to traffic by direction at the survey locations are given in Annexure 2.2.
Table 2.3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at Survey locations
Mode
Tollable vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Taxis
Traveller
Mini Bus
Govt. Bus
Pvt. Bus
School Bus
Car Goods
LCV (1-1)
LCV (1-2)
2 Axle
3 Axle
MAV
Construction
Toll Exempt vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Bus
LCV
Trucks

Traffic Studies

2-5

Km. 90.5, NH 1A

Km. 130, NH 1A

1402
1537
224
33
35
210
2
294
62
179
1766
421
131
6

1140
1259
287
97
21
175
2
277
35
167
1716
433
137
82

66
73
52
106

81
87
157
78

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Mode

Km. 90.5, NH 1A

Km. 130, NH 1A

90
5
12
2
6302
406
6708
12549

79
9
19
1
5828
531
6359
12386

Non Tollable vehicles


Two wheeler
Auto Rickshaw
Agri. Tractors
NMT
Total Tollable
Total Toll Exempt
Total Vehicles
Total PCU

Traffic observed at Km 90.5 was 6708 vehicles (12549 PCUs) and at km130 was 6359

vehicles (12386 PCUs). The variation in traffic at both locations is due to the traffic
originated / destined from Patnitop, Doda & Kishtwar.
Tollable traffic are about 95% of total traffic at Km. 90.5 and about 92% of total traffic at

Km. 130 of NH 1A.


The day wise variation of total traffic at the count stations shows a slight variation over the
week, with peaks on Thursday at Km. 90.5 and on Wednesday at Km. 130 (Figure 2.3)
Peak Hour Factor (PHF) and Hourly Variation
The hourly variation of traffic illustrates the distribution of traffic over the day with respect to
time, and the peak hour factor is the maximum percentage of the total traffic that uses the
project highway in single hour of the day. It is of significance as highway capacities and
design calculations are based on PHF. The peak hour factor observed at the count stations are
summarized in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4: Observed Peak Hour Traffic Characteristics
Survey Locations

Traffic Peak
Hour (PCUs)

Traffic % Peak
hour (of ADT)

Observed Peak
Hour

Km 90.5, NH 1A

772

6.32

10: 00 to 11: 00

Km. 130, NH 1A

742

6.13

12: 00 to 13: 00

The PHF on the project road varies between 6.13 and 6.32 percent of the ADT in PCUs.
Figure 2.4 below shows the hourly variation of traffic observed at the count stations.
Directional Distribution and Composition
The directional distribution analysis, are presented in Table 2 .5, indicates that at km 90.5
there is marginal variation and at km 130 there is an almost equal distribution in both
directions of travel.

Traffic Studies

2-6

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 2.5: Directional distribution (in PCU) on project road (%)


Direction

Km 90.5, NH 1A

Km. 130, NH 1A

Chenani To Nashri

52.58

50.87

Nashri To Chenani

47.52

49.13

Figure 2.3: Day wise Variation of Total Traffic on the Project Road

Traffic Studies

2-7

Traffic Report

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Figure 2.4: Hourly variation of Traffic

Traffic Composition
An analysis was carried out to find the composition of traffic both for fast and slow moving
traffic. The findings are presented in Table 2.6 and the vehicular composition distribution for
the major locations is shown in Figure 2.5.

Traffic Studies

2-8

Traffic Report

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Figure 2.5: Traffic Composition on Project Road

Traffic Studies

2-9

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 2.6: Traffic Composition at surveyed locations (%)


Mode
Tollable vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Taxis
Traveller
Mini Bus
Govt. Bus
Pri. Bus
School Bus
Car Goods
LCV (1-1)
LCV (1-2)
2 Axle
3 Axle
MAV
Construction
Toll Exempt vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Bus
LCV
Trucks
Non Tollable vehicles
Two wheeler
Auto Rickshaw
Agri. Tractors
NMT

Km. 90.5 (NH 1A)

Km. 130 (NH 1A)

20.94
22.95
3.35
0.49
0.52
3.14
0.03
4.39
0.93
2.67
26.37
6.29
1.96
0.09

17.98
19.86
4.53
1.53
0.33
2.76
0.03
4.37
0.55
2.63
27.07
6.83
2.16
1.29

0.99
1.09
0.72
1.46

1.28
1.37
2.48
1.23

1.34
0.07
0.18
0.03

1.25
0.14
0.30
0.02

Passenger vehicles represent around 52 % of total movements at Km 90.5 and around 47% at
Km.130 of NH 1A.

Freight vehicles represent around 43% of total traffic at Km 90.5 and around 45% at Km. 130
of NH 1A.
Toll Exempted Vehicles
Toll exempted vehicles were counted separately during the traffic volume counts. The
observed toll exempted vehicles are presented in Table 2.7.
Table 2.7: Toll Exempted Vehicles at Survey Locations (%)
Mode
Car/Jeep/Van
Total Count
% of respective count
Bus

Traffic Studies

Km. 90.5, NH 1A
66
3005
2.20
73

2-10

Km. 130, NH 1A
81
2480
3.27
87

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Mode
Total Count
% of respective count
LCV
Total Count
% of respective count
Trucks
Total Count
% of respective count

Km. 90.5, NH 1A
320
22.81
53
294
18.03
107
2294
4.66

Km. 130, NH 1A
285
30.53
172
374
45.99
86
2235
3.85

The proportion of exempt vehicles, for Car/Jeep/Van, Buses. LGV and Trucks is rather more
due to the fact the movement of army vehicles in the region.
Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
The traffic plying on any road generally varies over different periods of the year depending on
the cycle of different socio-economic activities in the regions through which it passes.
Therefore, in order to have a more realistic picture of the traffic on the project road, it is
required to assess seasonal variation in traffic to estimate the Annual Average Daily Traffic
(AADT). Therefore, the ADT observed during the survey duration is multiplied by a Seasonal
Correction Factor (SCF) to derive an AADT. The seasonal correction factor is generally
derived from secondary data sources such as past month-wise traffic data on the project road,
monthly toll revenues from existing tolled highways in the immediate influence area, sales of
fuel at different filling stations along the project highway, arrival of vehicles at establishments
like APMC, Truck Terminals, Railway Goods Stations, etc.
The average daily traffic has to be adjusted for seasonal variation. The seasonal correction
factor has been estimated using the information collected from petrol pumps along the project
road. The analysis to assess seasonality and details are presented in Annexure 2.3.
The adopted seasonal correction factors are:

For cars the average SCF, as derived from the fuel stations considered, SCF returned
a value of 1.14 has been adopted for the month of April.

For buses, as they generally ply on fixed and scheduled routes, a uniform SCF of 1.17
was considered (considering the impact of Amarnath Yatra and Tourist Season).

For LGVs and Trucks SCF of 1.17 has been adopted for the study

AADT
Based on the above Seasonal Correction factor, AADT for the project road was estimated and
is presented in Table 2.8 and details are presented in Annexure 2.4.

Traffic Studies

2-11

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 2.8: AADT for the Project Road


Mode
Tollable vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Taxis
Traveller
Mini Bus
Govt. Bus
Pri. Bus
School Bus
Car Goods
LCV (1-1)
LCV (1-2)
2 Axle
3 Axle
MAV
Construction
Toll Exempt vehicles
Car/Jeep/Van
Bus
LCV
Trucks
Non Tollable vehicles
Two wheeler
Auto Rickshaw
Agri. Tractors
NMT
Total Tollable
Total Toll Exempt
Total Vehicles
Total PCU
Tollable PCUs

Km. 90.5, NH 1A

Km. 130, NH 1A

1595
1749
255
39
41
245
2
343
72
209
2062
491
153
7

1297
1433
327
113
25
204
2
323
41
195
2003
506
160
96

66
73
52
106

81
87
170
85

90
5
12
2
7263
406
7669
14427
13542

79
9
19
1
6725
531
7256
14223

13201

Estimation of Vehicle Damage Factor:


To study the loading characteristics of goods vehicles on the project road, the consultant
carried out axle load survey at Km 73. Due to the requirement of stopping a vehicle for
weighing, it is not possible to weigh all the commercial vehicles passing through site. The
commercial vehicles were stopped for weighing in the 24 hour duration (one day) on a
random sampling basis for estimation of Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF). The summary of
VDF calculated for commercial vehicles on the basis of the axle load survey are presented in
Table 2.9 and details are presented in Annexure 2.5.

Traffic Studies

2-12

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 2.9: VDF at Survey Location at Km 73 on NH 1A


Mode
LGV (4 Tyre)
LGV (6 Tyre)
2 Axle Truck
3 Axle Truck
MAV

2.5

Chenani to
Udhampur
0.17
0.30
0.64
0.17
0.24

Udhampur
to Chenani
0.25
0.57
3.15
3.62
5.27

Travel Characteristics
In order to understand the travel demand pattern in the region and tollable traffic streams,
origin and destination (OD) surveys were carried out in proximity of the count stations on the
project road. The OD surveys were carried out for 24 hours, by roadside interview method as
described in IRC: 102-1988. Police assistance for the surveys was arranged and both
passenger and commercial vehicles plying on the project road were stopped on a random
sampling basis and interviewed.
The travel characteristics obtained by OD survey facilitate the identification of:

Local and through traffic on the project road.

Potential divertible traffic to/from project road to various alternative routes.

Trained enumerators under the supervision of traffic engineers collected the trip
characteristics using survey forms designed for this purpose.
The OD survey elicited characteristics like origin, destination, frequency, purpose of trip for
passenger vehicles and commodity being transported for goods vehicles. The information
pertaining to origin and destination of trips collected during roadside interviews was analyzed
to obtain the trip distribution based on a zoning system suitably designed for the present
study.
Data Checking:
The collected data has been entered into the computer and also verified manually. Incorrect
entries were corrected by cross-checking it with original field data sheets. The data was also
checked for inconsistencies. The checking includes:

Code number exceeding highest code

Matching vehicle type with commodity carried

Vehicle type with their corresponding lead/load/occupancy for any inconsistencies


The checked and corrected data were used for final analysis.

Traffic Studies

2-13

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Adopted Zoning System:


For analysis of O-D data collected from the field, it is required to code it for origin and
destination of trip. The zoning has been done at four levels. In first level, all-important
locations along the project stretch were assigned a zone code. Secondly, immediate influence
areas of project road were considered and nearby areas/towns were defined as zones. In the
next level, all nearby districts were grouped in zones. Finally, states beyond the influence area
were aggregated broadly in terms of direction of project road. In all, total 46 traffic zones
were considered for the project road. The list of traffic zones are presented in Tables 2.10
and figure 2.6 a, b, c & d
Table 2.10: Adopted Zoning System for Project Road
S. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Traffic Studies

OD Zones (Chenani-Nashri)
Chenani
Dogra
Kud
Patnitop
Ladhwal Mod
Tringla
Batote
Chanpa
Nashri
Chandrakot
Ramban
Ramsoo
Banihal
Doru Shahabad / Nadodra
Qazigund
Anantnag
Srinagar
Doda
Kishtwar
Udhampur
Jammu
Katra
Jammu Dt.
Udhampur Dt.
Srinagar Dt.
Samba Dt.
Kathua Dt.
Reasi Dt.
Ramban Dt.
Doda Dt.
Anantnag Dt.

2-14

Zone
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

S. No.
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

OD Zones (Chenani-Nashri)
Kishtwar Dt.
Rajouri, Punch
Kulgam, Pulwama, Shupiyan, Badgam
Baramula, Kupwara, Bandipore, Ganderbal
Kargil, Leh
Punjab
Himachal Pradesh
Haryana
Delhi
Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand
Rajasthan, Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa
Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal
North Eastern States
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala

Zone
No.
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Figure 2.6 a: Internal Zones

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Traffic Report

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Figure 2.6 b: External Zones

Figure 2.6 c: External Zones

Traffic Studies

2-16

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Figure 2.6 d: External Zones

Jammu & Kashmir

38
37
Punjab

Himachal Pradesh
39 Uttaranchal

Haryana

40

Delhi

Bhutan

41

Rajasthan

Uttar Pradesh

42
Gujarat

Sikkim

Nepal

45
Bihar

44

Jharkhand
West Bengal

Madhya Pradesh

43

Bangladesh

Chhattisgarh
Orissa

Maharashtra

Andhra Pradesh
Goa

46

Karnataka

Tamilnadu
Kerala

Traffic Studies

2-17

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Expansion Factors and Development of Origin-Destination Matrices:


The origin-destination details were collected from the trip makers during the O-D survey on
sample basis as stopping and interviewing all the vehicles was not possible. The sample size
varied for different survey locations depending upon the quantum of traffic volume moving
on the road. Sampling rate varied with the changes in traffic flow during different parts of the
day at the same location as well. Care had been taken to eliminate any element of bias in the
sampling method. Since the data was collected on the sample basis expansion factors are
required to replicate the pattern as reflected in the sample to the total number of vehicular
trips made during the day. These expansion factors are calculated separately for each class of
vehicle. For Example if xc is the number of cars interviewed and Xc is the total number
of cars counted during the day, then Xc/xc is the expansion factor for Cars.
OD Matrices will be developed to assess the traffic movement pattern. These matrices
actually provide distribution of trips for each zone as various inter-zonal movements.
Multiplying the sample O-D matrix obtained from the survey data with the expansion factor
develops the vehicle wise O-D matrices for both the survey locations. Accordingly matrices,
by various vehicle categories, will be developed On the basis of O-D matrices; travel pattern
of the vehicles moving on the project road would be analyzed to arrive at the toll-able traffic
for project road. The OD matrices and desire lane diagram so developed are presented in
Annexure 2.6.
Travel Pattern:
Distribution of trips in project influence area:
The share of trips from major areas within the project road and distribution by share of state
for both the locations is presented in Table 2.11 and 2.12.
Table 2.11: Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 73 (in Percentage)
Zone / Mode
Kud
Patnitop
Batote
Ramban
Banihal
Srinagar
Doda
Kishtwar
Udhampur
Jammu
Katra
Jammu Dt.
Udhampur Dt.
Samba Dt.
Kathua Dt.

Traffic Studies

Cars
1.06
4.25
0.80
3.03
0.27
34.96
2.55
1.65
5.53
36.45
3.88
1.38
0.43
0.05
0.00

Govt
Bus
0.00
0.00
5.00
5.00
0.00
40.00
0.00
0.00
10.00
35.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Pvt
Bus
0.64
3.21
0.00
7.05
2.56
21.79
10.26
3.21
5.13
38.46
1.28
0.64
1.92
0.00
0.00

2-18

Mini
Car
Bus
Goods
0.00
0.42
9.09
4.58
0.00
4.17
22.73
5.42
0.00
3.33
9.09 22.92
4.55
4.17
0.00
3.33
18.18
0.00
27.27 38.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00 10.00
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.00

LGV
0.00
0.60
2.98
1.79
1.19
30.95
8.33
2.98
0.00
36.31
0.60
0.00
5.36
0.00
1.19

2
Axle
0.12
0.37
0.87
1.00
0.62
43.34
1.06
1.43
0.00
36.74
0.00
0.12
2.68
0.56
0.37

3
Axle
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.00
48.60
0.00
0.28
0.00
19.83
0.00
0.00
1.12
0.56
0.56

MAV
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
48.75
0.00
1.25
0.00
8.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.25

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Zone / Mode
Doda Dt.
Kulgam, Side
Kargil, Leh
Punjab
Haryana
Delhi
Rajasthan,
Gujarat
Maharashtra
Side

Cars
0.58
0.05
0.37
1.01
0.05
0.27

Govt
Bus
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Pvt
Bus
1.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.64

Mini
Car
Bus
Goods
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.55
0.00
4.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.11

0.00

1.28

0.00

LGV
0.00
0.00
0.60
4.76
1.19
0.60

2
Axle
0.00
0.12
0.25
5.23
0.25
3.61

3
Axle
0.00
0.00
0.00
20.11
0.28
3.91

MAV
0.00
2.50
0.00
23.75
0.00
0.00

0.00

0.00

0.19

0.56

6.25

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.96

5.00

About 35% of cars and 35% of Buses are originating/ destined from Jammu.
About 35% of cars and 22% of private buses are originating/ destined from Srinagar.
Majority of traffic is originated from Jammu & Kashmir. Within state, Jammu, Srinagar and
Udhampur are major attractors of trips.
Majority of the LGVs are originating/ destined from Jammu , Srinagar and Udhampur.
About 36% of 2-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu and 43% from Srinagar.
About 19% of 3-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu & 48% from Srinagar.
About 49% of MAV is originating/ destined from Srinagar and around 22% from Punjab.
Table 2.12: Distribution of trips in project influence area at Km 130 (in Percentage)

Zone / Mode
Chenani
Patnitop
Batote
Nashri
Chandrakot
Ramban
Banihal
Anantnag
Srinagar
Doda
Udhampur
Jammu
Katra
Jammu Dt.
Srinagar Dt.
Samba Dt.
Kathua Dt.
Kulgam side
Baramula Side
Punjab
Haryana
Delhi

Traffic Studies

Cars
0.10
0.19
4.01
0.19
0.38
6.21
0.81
1.53
39.45
0.62
1.72
38.44
2.53
0.14
0.19
0.00
0.10
0.29
0.67
0.81
0.05
0.43

Govt
Bus
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
50.00
0.00
0.00
50.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Pvt
Bus
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.81
4.81
0.00
39.42
0.96
3.85
42.31
1.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.96
0.00
0.00
0.96

Mini
Bus
0.00
1.16
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.46
0.93
0.46
45.14
0.23
2.08
15.28
0.23
0.93
0.69
0.69
0.69
0.46
1.39
20.60
0.69
4.40

2-19

Car
Goods
1.97
0.39
3.54
2.36
2.36
9.06
0.79
1.57
31.10
0.39
12.60
29.13
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.79
0.00
0.79
0.79
0.00
0.00
0.00

LGV
0.00
0.00
0.54
0.54
2.72
1.63
1.63
2.72
40.22
0.00
1.09
34.24
0.54
1.09
0.00
0.00
1.09
0.00
0.54
5.98
1.63
1.09

2
Axle
0.00
0.00
0.38
0.44
0.33
1.36
1.20
1.04
42.97
0.11
2.02
33.75
0.16
1.20
1.91
0.65
1.04
0.11
0.33
4.91
0.22
4.74

3
Axle
0.00
1.16
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.46
0.93
0.46
45.14
0.23
2.08
15.28
0.23
0.93
0.69
0.69
0.69
0.46
1.39
20.60
0.69
4.40

MAV
0.00
0.82
0.00
0.00
0.82
0.82
0.00
0.82
45.90
0.00
0.00
8.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.82
23.77
0.82
1.64

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Zone / Mode
Rajasthan,
Gujarat
Maharashtra

Cars
0.10
0.05

Govt
Bus
0.00
0.00

Pvt
Bus

Mini
Bus

0.00
0.00

1.16
0.69

Car
Goods
0.00
0.00

LGV
0.54
0.00

2
Axle

3
Axle

MAV

0.16
0.22

1.16
0.69

8.20
5.74

About 39% of cars and Pvt Buses are originating/ destined from Srinagar and Jammu.
Majority of traffic is originated from Jammu & Kashmir. Within state, Jammu, Srinagar and
Udhampur are major attractors of trips.
Majority of the LGVs are originating/ destined from Jammu , Srinagar and Udhampur.
About 33% of 2-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu and 43% from Srinagar.
About 15% of 3-Axle trucks are originating/ destined from Jammu & 45% from Srinagar.
About 46% of MAV is originating/ destined from Srinagar and around 24% from Punjab.
Goods Vehicle - Lead Analysis:
The survey data was analyzed to assess the lead for commercial vehicles. The distribution
observed for different vehicle types is grouped into various ranges. The trip length frequency
is presented in Table 2.13(a) & (b).
Table 2.13 (a): Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicles at Km 73
Lead analysis
0-50
50-100
100-200
200-500
500-1000
1000-1500
1500-2000
>2000
Average Lead

Car Goods LCV 4&6 2 axle truck 3 axle truck MAV


6.56
0.00
0.34
0.00
0.00
11.48
2.38
1.47
1.40
0.00
15.57
9.52
3.40
1.40
2.50
66.39
76.19
77.89
64.34
55.00
0.00
10.71
16.55
25.17
15.00
0.00
0.00
0.23
1.40
10.00
0.00
1.19
0.11
4.20
10.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.10
7.50
219.53
325.14
367.51
537.55
774.75

Table 2.13 (b): Trip Length Frequency Distribution of Goods Vehicles at Km 130
Lead analysis Car Goods LCV 4&6 2 axle truck 3 axle truck MAV
0-50
7.09
1.08
0.65
0.46
0.00
50-100
7.87
0.00
1.09
0.46
0.00
100-200
20.47
7.53
4.25
1.85
1.64
200-500
64.57
75.27
76.34
50.46
31.15
500-1000
0.00
12.90
13.74
39.35
40.98
1000-1500
0.00
3.23
3.16
4.17
8.20
1500-2000
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.39
9.84
>2000
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.85
8.20
Average Lead
224.30
353.55
389.05
539.18
875.49

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2-20

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Commodity Analysis:
Different commodities recorded during the O-D survey were classified into 11 categories.
Due consideration has been given to include all possible commodities moving along the
project road.
Mode-wise distribution of various commodities is presented in the Table 2.14 (a) & (b).
Table 2.14 (a): Vehicle wise Commodity Distribution in percentage (Km 73)
Commodity
Minerals
Food Grains
Cash Crops
Perishables Items
Wood and Forest Products
Building Materials
Oil and Natural Gas
Grocery Items
Manufacturing Items
Others
Empty

Car Goods

LCV 4&6

0.00
44.26
5.74
4.10
12.30
5.74
2.46
9.02
3.28
5.74
7.38

0.00
46.43
4.76
4.76
15.48
3.57
4.76
4.76
4.76
3.57
7.14

2 Axle
truck
1.70
15.42
0.11
0.11
0.45
14.29
12.24
17.01
0.91
7.71
30.05

3Axle
truck
1.40
5.59
0.00
0.70
0.70
4.20
18.88
30.77
0.70
4.90
32.17

MAV
2.50
25.00
0.00
7.50
7.50
5.00
10.00
2.50
0.00
10.00
30.00

Commodity pattern shows prominent movement of food grains through LGVs and Car
Goods.

The pattern shows the prominent movement of Grocery items, building materials & Oil &
Natural gas through 2and 3-Axle trucks.

The pattern also shows the prominent movement of Food grains & Oil & Natural gas through
MAVs.

Table 2.14 (b): Vehicle wise Commodity Distribution in percentage (Km 130)
Commodity
Minerals
Food Grains
Cash Crops
Perishable Items
Wood and Forest Products
Building Materials
Oil and Natural Gas
Grocery Items
Manufacturing Items
Others
Empty

Traffic Studies

Car Goods

LCV 4&6

0.00
44.88
5.51
3.94
11.81
4.72
1.57
8.66
4.72
7.87
6.30

0.00
47.31
3.23
6.45
13.98
4.30
4.30
4.30
2.15
4.30
9.68

2-21

2 Axle
truck
0.00
14.07
0.55
0.76
0.98
12.98
8.72
18.10
1.53
8.29
34.02

3Axle
truck
1.85
5.56
0.00
1.39
3.24
6.48
17.59
27.78
0.93
3.70
31.48

MAV
3.28
22.95
0.00
6.56
8.20
6.56
11.48
1.64
0.00
8.20
31.15

Traffic Report

Chenani-Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Commodity pattern shows prominent movement of food grains through LGVs and Car
Goods.

The pattern shows the prominent movement of Grocery items, building materials & Oil &
Natural gas through 2and 3-Axle trucks.

The pattern also shows the prominent movement of Food grains & Oil & Natural gas through
MAVs.

Traffic Studies

2-22

Traffic Report

CHAPTER 3
TRAFFIC FORECAST

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Chapter 3: Traffic Forecast


3.1

Approach to Traffic Forecast


Investment in the transport sector constitutes a significant part of the total investment. This is
especially true in the case of developing nations, where transport is the catalyst for all round
development and one of the basic infrastructures when the capital available is scarce and has
competing demands, the investments in a transport project have to be carefully planned,
keeping in view not only the present demand but also the requirement for a reasonable period
in future. This underlines the need for estimating the future traffic accurately, whether the
plan is for the construction of a new facility or the improvement of existing facilities. The
accurate estimate of future traffic will have a significant influence on the engineering design
of the facility and on the economic decision forecasting is at best approximate. This chapter
details various aspects of the project road traffic and its growth potential.
Traffic is generated as a result of the interplay of a number of contributory factors. Forecasts
of traffic have therefore to be dependent on the forecasts of factors such as population, GDP,
vehicle ownership, agricultural output, and fuel consumption and the likely future patterns of
change in these factors can be estimated with only a limited degree of accuracy and hence the
forecasting of future traffic levels can not be precise.
It is necessary to distinguish between the following types of traffic:

Current

Traffic

This represents the existing traffic that would use the improved highway when it is opened to
traffic.
Divert

ed Traffic
This represents the traffic attracted to the improved highway or lost to alternative routes when
the improvements are completed.

Induced

Traffic

This represents the increase in traffic as a result of the increased demand for transport, if any,
induced by the improvement of the highway.
Development

Traffic

This represents the increase in traffic, if any, that may arise from improvements on adjacent
land over and above the development which would have taken place had the new or improved
highway not been constructed.
Normal Growth
This represents the increase in traffic which would in any event occur if no improvement is
made, this increase being the result of the general increase in the number and usage of motor

Traffic Forecast

3-1

Traffic Report

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

vehicles.
There are various techniques have been adopted for estimating growth factors and future
traffic in transport studies viz. Time series growth using previous traffic count , Historical
growth in vehicle registration, and Elasticity of transport demand. The transport demand
elasticity model is used world over for estimating the traffic as it develops the relationship
between factors such as per capita income, Gross Domestic Products, Population with traffic.
The consultants are working on the above aspects. The growth rates would be developed for
the project based on the transport demand Elasticity concept. This method of long-term traffic
forecasting incorporates analyses of some of the key socio-economic characteristics in the
road influence area and their anticipated rates of change during the study period, these
characteristics being taken as indicators for the future growth of traffic.
The growth rates for normal traffic obtained from this approach take some account of the
following factors which affect future traffic levels;
(i)

The prospective growth in the economy;

(ii)

The estimated elasticity of demand for transport, and

(iii)

Changes in the structure of the vehicle fleet, for example vehicle productivity and
changes in the inter-modal share of passenger and freight demand.

Econometric modeling considers measurable demographics and socio-economic parameters


such as population, per capita income (PCI), Net State Domestic Product (NSDP), Gross
Domestic Product (GDP),etc. to establish a relationship with transport demand elasticity. The
influence area of the study corridor established based on the secondary information available
in previous study and development plans in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab,
Rajasthan, and Delhi. Therefore the impact of these states will be considered to arrive at the
project specific growth rates.

3.2

Past Trends in Demographics and Socio -Economic Parameters


India Past Economic Trends:
It is observed that the GDP of the India has increased from Rs. 401128 Crores in 1980-81 to
Rs. 2513071 Crores in 2009-10 resulting in a growth of economy of about 6 percent per
annum Table 3.1 during the period. The primary and secondary sectors during the same
period registered a growth rate of about 4.58 percent per annum. The high and low economic
growth rates occurred in FY 1988-89 (10 percent) and in FY 1991-92 (1 percent). The annual
growth of economy exhibited different characteristics during two distinct periods, one
between 1980-81 and 1991-92 and the other between 1992-93 and 2008-09. The annual
growth of economy during the earlier period (1980-92) exhibited greater fluctuations as
compared to that during the latter period. The economy during this period varied between
1.30 percent (in 1991-92) and 10.47 (in 1988-89) percent. The economy during the latter
period is following a definite pattern as evidenced from the annual growth rates, realized

Traffic Forecast

3-2

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

during this period. It peaked to a value of 9.2 percent (in 2006-07) from an initial value of
5.12 (in 1992-93). In fact during the past five years 2005-2010 the GDP registered an average
growth rate of 8.5 percent. The steady growth of the economy during this period can be
attributed to the economic policies framed in the post liberalization era, which commenced in
1991.
The long term economic growth measured against the base year 1980-81 has decreased to
4.80 percent (in 1987-88) from 5.97 percent (in 1981-82). Thereafter, the long-term economic
growth is over 5 percent and is 6 percent currently (2008-09), a period of over 25 years. A
marginal fall in this growth rate is observed in 1991-92 and 1992-93, the period in which the
changes in macroeconomic policies were initiated.
Average growth of economy during the post liberalization period, 1992-2009, is 6.6 percent
per annum as against 5.22 percent per annum during the previous period (1981-1992). It is
observed that the Indian economy (GDP) is over 5 percent in any review period except during
the period 1982-87 when it was about 4.8 percent. The 5-year growth rate during the period
1992-97 is about 6.7 percent. This is the first 5-year period post liberalization of the economy.
Currently, during the period 2005-2009 is over 8.5 percent and is the highest growth period
during the past 25 years or so.
The pattern of growth of Indian economy over the past six decades clearly indicates that the
growth rate of industry was the highest until 1970, a period of twenty years. During the next
twenty years period (1970-90) growth rates of industry and services were almost similar.
Since 1990 the growth rate of services sector is the highest.
Table 3.1: India - National Income (1993-94 Prices) [Historical]
Year GDP (Cr)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Traffic Forecast

401128
425073
438079
471742
492077
513990
536257
556778
615098
656331
692871
701863
737792
781345
838031
899563

Annual
Growth (%)
5.97
3.06
7.68
4.31
4.45
4.33
3.83
10.47
6.7
5.57
1.3
5.12
5.9
7.25
7.34

Growth (%)
Year
Since 1980
1996
5.97
1997
4.5
1998
5.55
1999
5.24
2000
5.08
2001
4.96
2002
4.8
2003
5.49
2004
5.62
2005
5.62
2006
5.22
2007
5.21
2008
5.26
2009
5.4
2010
5.53

3-3

GDP (Cr)
970082
1016595
1082748
1148367
1198592
1267945
1318362
1430548
1538080
1676380
1830525
1995397
2129068
2315182
2513071

Annual Growth (%)


Growth (%) Since 1980
7.84
5.67
4.79
5.62
6.51
5.67
6.06
5.69
4.37
5.63
5.79
5.63
3.98
5.56
8.51
5.68
7.52
5.76
8.99
5.89
9.2
6.01
9.0
5.94
7.30
6.01
8.74
6.09
8.55
6.16

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.2: Economic Growth (%) During Different Periods (Constant 1993 Prices)
Period
1981 1992
1992 2007
1981 2007
1982 1987
1987 1992
1992 1997
1997 2002
2002 2007
2006 2010

GDP
5.22
6.60
6.01
4.76
5.53
6.69
5.50
7.62
8.14

Pri/Sec
4.37
4.74
4.58
3.53
4.83
6.05
3.18
5.06
5.46

India Future Economic Perspective:


Growth of different sectors of Indian economy was forecasted in to the future considering the
historical data during the period 19502010 under different trend growth scenarios. Thus, the
estimated and assumed growth rates of future GDP are as presented in Table 3.3.
Table 3.3: Horizon GDP Rates India
Year

Low

Medium

High

2014-2018

2018-2023

Beyond 2023

Jammu and Kashmir Past Economic Trends:


It is observed that the NSDP of the Jammu and Kashmir has increased from Rs. 2329200 Lacs
in 2004-05 to Rs. 3415700 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 5.65
percent per annum (Table 3.4 ) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the
years and there is no regular trend however from 2008 to 2012 is about 5.58%.
Table 3.4: J&K - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)
Year

NSDP

Growth (%) Since 2004-05

2004-05

2329200

2005-06

2437100

4.63

2006-07

2579400

5.23

2007-08

2738700

5.58

2008-09

2910200

5.78

2009-10

3031200
3218700
3415700

5.61
5.61
5.65
5.58

2010-11
2011-12
Growth for last 5 years

Traffic Forecast

3-4

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Punjab Past Economic Trends:


It is observed that the NSDP of the Punjab has increased from Rs. 8610800 Lacs in 2004-05
to Rs. 13806100 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 7.11 percent per
annum (Table 3.5) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and there
is no regular trend however from 2008 to 2012 is about 6.2%.
Table 3.5: Punjab - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Growth for last 5 years

NSDP
8610800
9033000
10007200
10873800
11476600
12180200
12993300
13806100

Growth (%) Since 2004-05


4.90
7.80
8.36
7.90
7.51
7.29
7.11
6.20

Rajasthan Past Economic Trends:


It is observed that the NSDP of the Rajasthan has increased from Rs. 11263572 Lacs in 200405 to Rs. 17265633 Lacs in 2010-11 resulting in a growth of economy of about 7.13 percent
per annum (Table 3.6) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and
there is no regular trend however from 2007 to 2011 is about 6.31%.
Table 3.6: Rajasthan - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Growth for last 5 years

NSDP
11263572
12020228
13434991
14047148
15062054
15684408
17265633

Growth (%) Since 2004-05


6.72
9.21
8.05
7.65
7.03
7.13
6.31

Maharashtra Past Economic Trends:


It is observed that the NSDP of the Maharashtra has increased from Rs. 36836871 Lacs in
2004-05 to Rs. 70283194 Lacs in 2010-11 resulting in a growth of economy of about 10.98
percent per annum (Table 3.7) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the
years and there is no regular trend however from 2006 to 2011 is about 9.27%.

Traffic Forecast

3-5

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.7: Maharashtra - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)


Year

NSDP

Growth (%) Since 2004-05

2004-05

36836871

2005-06

42650340

15.78

2006-07

48807940

15.11

2007-08

54231132

13.83

2008-09

58583421

12.39

2009-10

63482861

11.40

2010-11

70283194

10.98

Growth for last 5 years

9.27

Delhi Past Economic Trends:


It is observed that the NSDP of the Delhi has increased from Rs. 9471700 Lacs in 2004-05 to
Rs. 20165300 Lacs in 2011-12 resulting in a growth of economy of about 11.50 percent per
annum (Table 3.8) during the period. The Growth rate is fluctuating over the years and there
is no regular trend however from 2006 to 2011 is about 11.10%.
Table 3.8: Delhi - NSDP (2004-05 Prices)
Year

NSDP

2004-05

9471700

2005-06

10447300

10.30

2006-07

11744400

11.35

2007-08

13068300

11.43

2008-09

14696100

11.65

2009-10

16316100

11.63

2010-11

18097400

11.54

2011-12

20165300

11.50

Growth for last 5 years

Growth (%) Since 2004-05

11.10

Population Growth Rate


The trend analysis for the population was analyzed from 2004-05 to 2010-11 periods using
the log regression method. The data and growth rates for the period are presented in (Table
3.9).

Traffic Forecast

3-6

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.9: Population Trend


Year

Jammu &
Kashmir
10716849
10876997
11034866
11192072
11349791
11506225
11659000
1.41
1.39

2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Since 2005
Since 2007

Punjab

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

Delhi

26012000
26493000
26983000
27482000
27990000
28507000
29034000
1.85
1.85

60670000
61818000
62951000
64077000
65200000
66310000
67401000
1.77
1.72

102566000
104160000
105740000
107321000
108908000
110485000
112042000
1.48
1.46

15386000
15831000
16291000
16760000
17236000
17725000
18231000
2.87
2.85

Per Capita Income Growth


The trend analysis for the per capita income was analyzed from 2004-05 to 2011-12 periods
using the log regression method. The data and growth rates for the period are presented in
Table 3.10.
Table 3.10: Per Capita Income Trend
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Since 2005
Since 2008

3.3

Jammu &
Kashmir
21734
22406
23375
24470
25641
26344
27607
28932
4.19
4.17

Punjab

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

Delhi

33103
34096
37087
39567
41003
42727
44752
46688
5.16
4.27

18565
19445
21342
21922
23356
24166
26436
.
5.82
5.40

35915
40947
46158
50532
51053
57458
62729
.
9.15
7.70

63877
69128
76243
83243
91845
100050
108876
119032
9.39
9.26

Estimation of Traffic Growth Rate for Normal Traffic


Normal Traffic
As stated earlier, the elasticity approach was used for determining growth rates of future
traffic. In the absence of a past traffic data series, elasticity values have been determined by
using registered vehicles as dependent variable and NSDP as independent variable for the PIA
states. The registered vehicles data for the states in the project influence are is presented in
annexure 3.1. The variables were weighted with the percentage contribution of each PIA
states as derived from the OD surveys.
Elasticity to economic growth for cars had been estimated using the per capita income and for
buses population had been considered as the dependent variable.

Traffic Forecast

3-7

Traffic Report

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Elasticity to economic growth for freight vehicles have been estimated using total state
income rather than only weighted income from agriculture and manufacturing given the
increasing contribution of the service sector to NSDP.
The mathematical model used for forecasting the growth rates by regression method for
passenger and freight traffic as per IRC: 109-1996 is given below;
For Passenger traffic
Log P = AO + A1 Log (Pop/PCI), P = Traffic Flow in base year
Pop = Population
PCI = Per Capita Income
For Freight traffic
Log P = AO + A1 Log (NSDP) P = Traffic Flow in base year
NSDP = Net State Domestic Product
The details of regression analysis are presented in Annexure 3.2.The resultant elasticity
values are presented in Table 3.11.
Table 3.11: Regression Analysis Results with Vehicle Registration Data
Dependent Variable

Independent Variable

Elasticity

Car/jeep/taxi Weighted Vehicle


Registration

PCI Weighted average

1.27

Buses Weighted Vehicle Registration

PCI Weighted average

1.07

LGV Weighted Vehicle Registration

NSDP Weighted Average

1.47

NSDP Weighted Average

0.83

NSDP Weighted Average

1.11

NSDP Weighted Average

1.34

2 Axle Trucks Weighted Vehicle


Registration
3 Axle Trucks Weighted Vehicle
Registration
MAV Weighted Vehicle Registration

Vehicle registration data is used as a proxy for traffic in the absence of past traffic data,
however it does not indicate actual number of vehicles plying on the road nor other economic
trends which may influence traffic elasticity to economic growth. Consequently, the elasticity
values based on registration data need to be adjusted in order to arrive at realistic future
elasticitys for the project road. Various factors relating to vehicle technology changes,
character of traffic and travel pattern on the project road have to be considered.
Factors like growth of household incomes (particularly in urban areas), reduction in the prices
of entry-level cars, growth of the used car market, changes in life style, growing personal
incomes, desire to own a vehicle facilitated by availability of loans/financing schemes on easy

Traffic Forecast

3-8

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

terms, etc. have all contributed to the rapid growth in ownership of cars. The elasticity
derived from the regression analysis has therefore been slightly increased to reflect this.
Over the years there is a change in passenger movement with an increasing number of people
shifting towards personalized modes given the low level of service provided by public
transport system. Elasticity values for buses from the regression analysis have been adjusted
to reflect this.
Considering the ongoing technical advancements in the automobile industry, more strict
enforcement of loading limits and general economies of scale, some of the standard two axle
trucks are gradually being replaced by three axle truck and MAVs. LCVs and 2-axle are
generally being used for short distance movements, whilst 3-axle and MAV for long-distance
ones. This shift has already started taking place in different parts of the country, therefore
higher elasticities values have been considered for larger trucks compared to 2-axle.
Generally the spread of economic development induces changes in the spatial distribution of
activities and corresponding changes in transport demand elasticity. As regions become more
and more self-sufficient, the need for long-distance transport diminishes. Accordingly, it was
assumed that transport demand elasticity, for both freight and passenger traffic, would tend to
decline over time, despite growth in per capita income. Elasticity values duly adjusted after
considering all these factors and adopted for the future.
Based on the elasticities developed for project road were estimated with medium economic
perspective were developed and the resulted growth rates are presented in Table 3.12.
Table 3.12: Traffic growth rates for Project Road
Growth Rates

Cars

Mini
Bus

Govt.
Buses

Private
Buses

LGV

2 Axle
Truck

3 Axle
Truck

MAV

2014-2018

7.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

8.0

5.0

7.0

8.5

2018-2023

6.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

4.5

6.75

8.0

2023-2028

6.5

4.0

4.0

4.0

7.25

4.5

6.5

7.75

2028 onward

6.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

7.0

4.25

6.0

7.25

Based on the above the traffic projections for each section of highway were carried out and
presented in Table 3.13a&b and details are presented in Appendix 3.3 a&b.

Divertible Traffic
On the Completion of the tunnel from Chenani to Nashri, the traffic diversion from the
project road section would take place due;
1)

Diversion of Traffic to Railways

2)

Diversion of Traffic Destined towards Chenani, Dogra and Kud area from Jammu side
and Btatote, Chanpa, Nashri from Srinagar Side (Local traffic between Chenani and
Nashri).

Traffic Forecast

3-9

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.13 a: Projected Traffic at Km 90.5


Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

Cars
&Taxis
3344
3578
3828
4097
4384
4680
4996
5333
5693
6078
6473
6894
7342
7819
8328
8827
9357
9919
10514
11144
11813
12522
13274
14070
14914
15809
16757
17763
18828
19958
21156
22426

Tempo
Traveller
255
273
292
312
334
357
381
406
434
463
493
525
559
596
634
672
712
755
800
848
899
953
1010
1071
1135
1204
1276
1352
1433
1519
1611
1707

Traffic Forecast

Two
Wheelers
90
98
107
117
127
138
150
162
176
191
206
223
241
260
281
302
325
349
375
403
434
466
501
539
579
623
669
719
773
831
894
961

Three
Wheelers
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
10
10
10
11
12
12
12
13
13
14
15
15
15
17
17
18
18
20
20

Mini
Bus
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
56
58
60
63
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
90
93
97
101
105
109
114
118
123
128
133
138

Buses
288
301
315
329
343
357
372
389
405
422
438
456
474
493
513
534
555
577
599
624
649
675
702
730
759
789
821
854
887
924
961
999

Car
Goods
343
358
375
391
409
426
445
463
483
504
524
545
567
590
613
638
663
690
717
746
776
807
839
872
907
944
981
1021
1062
1104
1148
1194

LGV
281
304
328
354
382
412
444
478
515
554
594
637
683
733
786
841
900
963
1030
1102
1180
1262
1350
1445
1546
1654
1771
1894
2026
2169
2320
2483
3-10

Trucks
(2 Axle)
2062
2165
2273
2387
2506
2619
2737
2860
2988
3123
3264
3410
3564
3724
3892
4057
4230
4410
4597
4792
4996
5208
5430
5661
5901
6152
6413
6686
6970
7266
7575
7897

Truck
(3 Axle)
491
525
562
601
644
687
734
783
836
893
951
1013
1079
1149
1223
1296
1374
1457
1544
1637
1735
1839
1949
2066
2190
2322
2461
2609
2765
2931
3107
3293

MAV
153
166
180
195
212
229
247
267
288
311
335
361
389
419
452
485
520
558
598
641
688
738
791
849
910
976
1047
1123
1204
1292
1385
1486

Const.
Machinery
7
8
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
22
24
25
27
29
31
33
36
39
41
44
48
51
55
59
63
67
72

Tractors
12
12
12
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
16
17
18
18
19
19
20
21
22
22
22
24
24
25
25
27
27
28
29
30
30
32

NMT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Toll
Exempted
297
302
309
314
321
327
334
340
348
354
362
369
376
382
390
398
406
414
423
431
440
448
457
466
476
485
495
504
515
525
535
545

Traffic Report

Total
7669
8138
8639
9171
9741
10314
10926
11571
12261
12992
13742
14540
15387
16283
17236
18179
19177
20234
21345
22521
23770
25086
26479
27953
29508
31159
32903
34746
36695
38761
40945
43256

PCUs
14427
15260
16145
17083
18092
19087
20146
21263
22449
23704
24995
26364
27819
29347
30975
32587
34286
36088
37972
39965
42076
44303
46649
49129
51739
54510
57429
60510
63763
67205
70834
74675

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.13 b: Projected Traffic at Km 130.5


Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

Cars
&Taxis
2730
2921
3126
3344
3578
3820
4077
4353
4647
4960
5282
5625
5991
6381
6795
7203
7635
8093
8579
9093
9638
10217
10831
11480
12169
12899
13672
14493
15362
16284
17262
18297

Tempo
Traveller
327
350
374
401
429
458
489
522
557
595
634
675
719
765
815
864
916
971
1029
1091
1156
1225
1299
1377
1460
1547
1640
1738
1843
1953
2070
2195

Traffic Forecast

Two
Wheelers
79
86
94
102
112
122
132
143
155
168
181
196
212
229
247
266
285
307
330
355
381
410
441
474
509
547
588
632
680
731
786
845

Three
Wheelers
9
9
10
11
11
11
12
13
13
14
14
16
16
17
17
17
19
19
20
21
22
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
31
32
33
34

Mini
Bus
113
118
123
129
135
141
147
153
159
166
173
180
187
194
202
210
218
227
236
246
256
266
276
288
299
311
323
336
350
364
378
393

Buses
231
241
252
264
275
286
299
311
324
338
351
365
380
395
411
428
445
462
481
500
521
541
563
585
609
632
658
684
711
741
770
801

Car
Goods
323
338
353
369
385
401
418
436
455
474
493
513
533
555
577
600
624
649
675
702
730
759
790
821
854
888
924
961
999
1039
1081
1124

LGV
236
255
275
298
321
346
373
402
432
466
500
536
575
616
661
707
757
810
867
927
992
1062
1136
1215
1300
1391
1489
1593
1705
1823
1951
2088
3-11

Trucks
(2 Axle)
2003
2103
2208
2319
2435
2545
2659
2779
2904
3034
3171
3313
3462
3618
3781
3942
4109
4284
4466
4656
4854
5060
5275
5499
5733
5976
6230
6495
6771
7059
7359
7672

Truck
(3 Axle)
506
541
579
620
663
708
756
807
861
919
979
1042
1110
1182
1259
1335
1415
1499
1589
1685
1786
1893
2007
2127
2255
2390
2533
2685
2846
3017
3198
3390

MAV
160
174
188
204
222
240
259
280
302
326
351
378
408
439
473
507
544
584
626
671
720
772
828
888
952
1021
1096
1175
1260
1352
1449
1555

Cons
Machinery
96
104
113
123
133
144
155
168
181
195
210
226
244
263
283
304
326
349
374
402
431
462
495
531
570
611
655
703
754
809
867
930

Tractors
19
19
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
25
26
26
28
28
29
30
31
32
33
33
35
36
36
38
39
40
42
42
44
45
46
48

NMT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Toll
Exempted
423
432
440
448
458
468
477
486
496
506
516
526
536
548
559
569
582
594
604
617
629
642
654
668
681
696
709
723
738
752
768
783

Total
7256
7692
8156
8654
9180
9713
10277
10878
11512
12187
12882
13618
14402
15231
16110
16983
17907
18881
19910
21000
22152
23368
24656
26017
27457
28977
30588
32290
34095
36002
38019
40156

Traffic Report

PCUs
14223
15044
15914
16852
17836
18823
19864
20975
22138
23374
24654
26002
27447
28965
30575
32177
33873
35650
37528
39520
41626
43837
46178
48653
51271
54026
56950
60034
63301
66756
70395
74261

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Diversion of Traffic to Railways


With a view to provide an alternative and a reliable transportation system to Jammu &
Kashmir, Govt. of India planned a 345 km. long Railway Line joining the Kashmir Valley
with the Indian Railways network. The Jammu-Udhampur-Katra-Quazigund-Baramulla
Railway line is the biggest project in the construction of a mountain railway since
independence. It passes through the young Himalayas, tectonic thrusts and faults.

The work on Jammu-Udhampur section ( 53 Km) has been completed and opened to
public by Honble Prime Minister in Apr05.
The section from Anantnag to Rajwansher (66 KM) was opened to the public by the
Honble Prime Minister on 11/10/08.
The section from Rajwansher to Baramulla (35 KM) was inaugurated and dedicated
to the nation by the Honble Chairperson of UPA Smt. Sonia Gandhi on 14.02.09.
The section from Quazigund to Anantnag (18 km) was opened to the public by the
Honble Prime Minister on 28/10/09

The work is in various stages of progress in the balance length from Udhampur to Quazigund
For the ease of execution, the work has been sub-divided into the following three sections:
Section - 1 : Udhampur-Katra ( 25 Km)
Section - 2 : Katra-Qazigund (129KM)
Section - 3 : Qazigund Baramulla (Km 119 )
The progress of work in these different sections of the new line is given as under:
Section - 1:- Udhampur- Katra ( 25 km)
Udhampur-Katra section is 25 km long and involves about 11 km of tunneling, 9 important/
major bridges, 29 minor bridges and 10 ROB/RUBs. The approx. cost of this stretch is Rs.
928 cr. The tallest bridge in this section is 85m high (Br. No. 20) and the longest tunnel is
3.15 km long. All the tunneling as well as bridge works have been completed.
Section 2 :- Katra-Qazigund ( 148 km)
This section is the toughest section, full of tunnels and bridges/ viaducts, that have been
constructed on the Indian Railways. The terrain in this region is full of poor geology and
faults. Tunneling and bridging is a challenge greater than that was met on Jammu-Udhampur
or Udhampur-Katra section and will be a matter of pride for the engineers of Indian Railways.
The stretch between river Chenab and Banihal is passing through a virgin territory and
requires construction of about 262 km of access roads. At Qazigund end of this stretch, the
longest tunnel on Indian Railways is being constructed ( T-80, Pir Panjal Tunnel). This tunnel
is 10.96 km long and will pierce through the Pir Panjal range below the snow line. The work
on Katra-Qazigund section was started in Nov.2002.
Section - 3: Qazigund-Baramulla ( 119 km)
This section falls in the Kashmir Valley, which is a natural bowl, surrounded by the mountain
ranges. Though there is no tunnel, heavy bridging is required across rivers, canals and roads.

Traffic Forecast

3-12

Traffic Report

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

The work from Quazigund to Anantnag ( 18 km) has been completed and commissioned on
28/10/09 by Honble Prime Minister.With this commissioning the entire 119 km stretch in the
valley has been made operational as a standalone system.
The entire line will be commissioned by year 2017-18.

Traffic Forecast

3-13

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

The railways are used to carry the passenger traffic and freight which normally comprises of
non-perishable and bulky in nature. To estimate the divertible traffic, consultants had
collected the commodity movement data from the Lower Munda Check Post. The data
collected from the check post is presented in Table 3.14 and 3.15.
Table 3.14: Distribution of Commodities Export
Weight (in Kg)
2 Axle
Truck

Commodity
Almonds

3Axle
Truck

MAV
( 4 Axle)

MAV
( 5 Axle)

4063430

570980

71785

251630

36350

14350

8000

Beverages

1587815

177935

232843

Chemical

2778265

497616

90213046

3350679

796068

8926

2910158

112721

4720

Food Grain

1912256

178715

127340

Manufacturing

8127465

611422

28255

8024

Metal

2813036

288220

174123

10072472

520010

10845

327324091 101823310

37608

Army Foods

Construction Material
Empty Container/Bottles
Empty Vehicles

Dry Fruited
Perishable Items

444529836

Plastic Items

8183262

479494

25716416

1044285

86670

212160

Wood

8550760

1526925

72705

Others

69849125

19352523

2978215

9250

Total

681771132

356071966 106421229

47004

Scrap
Vegetable Oil

Table 3.15: Distribution of Commodities - Import


Weight (in Kg)
Commodity
Army Goods
Beverages
Cereals
Chemical
Coal
Construction Machinery

Traffic Forecast

2 Axle
Truck

3Axle
Truck

MAV
( 4 Axle)

MAV
( 5 Axle)

4257871

1406089

206032

26000

33967305

9217667

2303995

20000

295672347

315836210

99211582

314853

88994245

27097355

6901243

828350

188087405

67221405

26710645

14789661

1953839

8484207

3034190

758650

3-14

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Weight (in Kg)


2 Axle
Truck

3Axle
Truck

MAV
( 4 Axle)

MAV
( 5 Axle)

130088693

79595073

37386904

32720521

Cotton

226299

110335

Empty Containers/Bottles

909814

804348

111800

10000

Food Grain

377011

35100

Food Items

61475056

7733690

732949

Glass Items

984548

12236939

1483158

Jute

429464

22300

Machine Parts

843943

595004

320650

236225

3552696

917266

583610

656430

36340363

22280371

4003567

2290187

3772012

1386280

33500

122113630

37525270

9246321

10536900

4333513

1511749

447256

36207111

5072849

574153

6773775

2739467

199434

70503868

41607932

9347881

81000

6380298

1202250

102061

Scrap

3000

38706

Seeds

870207

1093180

76795

30100

Tobacco

2478858

1441616

34650

Vegetable Oil

4412129

2410629

210144

45001

Wood

20249737

13057201

6050435

42223535

Others

852176882

178638920

45633744

7171030

Total

1978435919

841319408

254946699

112738443

Commodity
Construction Material

Empty Vehicles

Machine
Manufacturing
Medicine
Metals
Nonperishable Items
Oil Rice/Palm/Menthol Etc.
Paper
Perishable Items
Plastic Items

Based on the Commodity Distribution pattern, it has been estimated that about 6% of Export
quantity and about 40% of Import quantity could shift to railways. For estimation of the
divertible traffic the consultant had assumed that there would be about 15% reduction in
traffic due to railways for freight traffic.
For estimation of the diversion of Passenger traffic it has been assumed based on the
discussion with railways officials that about 25% buses and 20% cars traffic would shift to
railways. The Projection of divertible traffic to railways is presented in Table 3.16.

Traffic Forecast

3-15

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.16: Projected Divertible Traffic to Railways


Year

Cars &
Taxis

Buses

LGV

Trucks
(2 Axle)

Truck
(3 Axle)

MAV

Total

PCUs

2018

929

88

62

392

106

36

1613

2942

2019

991

91

67

410

113

38

1710

3105

2020

1058

96

73

428

120

42

1817

3289

2021

1130

99

78

447

129

45

1928

3475

2022

1206

104

84

467

137

48

2046

3672

2023

1284

109

90

488

146

52

2169

3882

2024

1368

112

96

510

155

56

2297

4095

2025

1457

117

103

533

165

60

2435

4327

2026

1551

122

111

557

176

65

2582

4575

2027

1652

126

119

582

188

70

2737

4834

2028

1751

131

127

607

199

75

2890

5090

2029

1857

136

136

633

211

81

3054

5366

2030

1967

141

146

659

224

86

3223

5645

2031

2086

147

156

687

237

93

3406

5952

2032

2211

153

166

717

252

99

3598

6272

2033

2344

160

179

747

267

107

3804

6616

2034

2484

166

191

779

283

114

4017

6968

2035

2633

173

204

812

300

123

4245

7348

2036

2791

180

219

846

318

131

4485

7741

2037

2959

187

234

882

337

141

4740

8163

2038

3136

194

250

920

357

151

5008

8604

2039

3325

202

268

959

378

162

5294

9073

2040

3524

210

287

1000

401

174

5596

9571

2041

3735

218

307

1042

425

186

5913

10088

2042

3959

227

329

1087

451

200

6253

10648

2043

4197

236

352

1133

478

215

6611

11234

2044

4448

245

376

1181

506

230

6986

11843

Traffic Forecast

3-16

Traffic Report

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

STC

Diversion of Local Traffic


Diversion of Traffic Destined towards
Chenani, Dogra and Kud area from Jammu
side and Btatote, Chanpa, Nashri from
Srinagar Side (Local traffic between Chenani
and Nashri) has been estimated based on the
Origin Destination survey carried out on the
project road. The percentage of divertible
traffic at both the location is presented in
Table 3.17.
Table 3.17: Divertible local traffic from
Project Road
Percentage
Diversion

Km 73

km 130

Cars

1.70

7.26

Govt Bus

0.00

0.00

Private Bus

1.28

0.00

Minibuses

0.00

28.2

Car Goods

0.83

4.72

LGV

0.00

2.17

2 Axle Truck

0.25

0.76

3 axle Truck

0.00

0.00

MAV

0.00

0.00

As traffic studies were carried out at the two ends of the Tunnel the traffic on the tunnel has
been estimated based on the maximum of the traffic at two locations after accounting for
diversions. The projection of local divertible traffic is presented in Table 3.18 a&b and
details are presented in Annexure 3.4.
Generated traffic
With the Completion of entire section of the project road from Jammu to Srinagar, the
journey would be more comfortable and safe which would attract the generated traffic on the
project road.
Further there are Hyderal project which are in various stages of development and would
generated the traffic on the project road. The Major Hydal power projects in Kishtwar are:

Traffic Forecast

Dul Hasti 780 MW.


Rattle 480MW.
Kirthai 1400 MW.
Pakal Dool 700 MW.
Lower Kalnai 200MW.
Chaudhary 150 MW.

3-17

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.18 a: Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 90.5


Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

Cars
&Taxis
74
79
84
90
96
103
110
117
124
132
141
149
158
168
178
189
200
212
225
238
253
267
284
301
318
338
358
379

Traffic Forecast

Tempo
Traveller
334
357
381
406
434
463
493
525
559
596
634
672
712
755
800
848
899
953
1010
1071
1135
1204
1276
1352
1433
1519
1611
1707

Two
Wheelers
127
138
150
162
176
191
206
223
241
260
281
302
325
349
375
403
434
466
501
539
579
623
669
719
773
831
894
961

Three
Wheelers
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
9
10
10
10
11
12
12
12
13
13
14
15
15
15
17
17
18
18
20
20

Mini
Bus Buses
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
7
0
7
0
7
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
9
0
9
0
9
0
10
0
10
0
10
0
11
0
11
0
12

Car
Goods LGV
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
10
10
11
11
12

3-18

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Trucks
(2 Axle)
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
17
18
18

Truck
(3 Axle)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

MAV
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cons
Machinery Tractors NMT
0
14
0
14
0
15
0
15
0
16
0
16
0
16
0
17
0
18
0
18
0
19
0
19
0
20
0
21
0
22
0
22
0
22
0
24
0
24
0
25
0
25
0
27
0
27
0
28
0
29
0
30
0
30
0
32

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Total
571
610
653
699
748
800
852
910
973
1038
1108
1175
1250
1331
1414
1501
1598
1698
1805
1921
2041
2170
2311
2455
2610
2778
2956
3144

PCUs
549
582
622
664
709
754
798
850
910
965
1027
1084
1150
1224
1297
1370
1455
1543
1635
1734
1836
1947
2069
2188
2322
2465
2614
2774

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Table 3.18 b: Projected Divertible Local Traffic at Km 130


Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

Cars
&Taxis
259
276
295
315
337
360
383
408
435
463
493
523
554
587
622
660
699
741
786
833
883
936
992
1051
1115
1182
1252
1327

Traffic Forecast

Tempo
Traveller
429
458
489
522
557
595
634
675
719
765
815
864
916
971
1029
1091
1156
1225
1299
1377
1460
1547
1640
1738
1843
1953
2070
2195

Two
Wheelers
112
122
132
143
155
168
181
196
212
229
247
266
285
307
330
355
381
410
441
474
509
547
588
632
680
731
786
845

Three
Wheelers
11
11
12
13
13
14
14
16
16
17
17
17
19
19
20
21
22
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
31
32
33
34

Mini
Bus
38
40
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
62
64
67
69
72
75
78
81
84
88
91
95
99
103
107
111

Buses
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4

Car
Goods
18
19
20
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
34
36
37
38
40
42
43
45
47
49
51
53

3-19

LGV
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
12
12
13
14
15
17
18
19
20
22
23
25
26
29
31
33
35

Trucks
(2 Axle)
18
19
20
21
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
31
32
33
35
36
38
39
41
43
44
46
48
50
53
55

Truck
(3 Axle)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

MAV
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cons
Machinery
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Tractors
22
22
23
24
25
25
26
26
28
28
29
30
31
32
33
33
35
36
36
38
39
40
42
42
44
45
46
48

NMT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Total
916
976
1042
1111
1185
1264
1345
1432
1526
1622
1726
1830
1940
2057
2182
2313
2455
2603
2762
2929
3108
3297
3497
3708
3940
4181
4436
4708

PCUs
954
1012
1076
1146
1216
1292
1370
1453
1546
1637
1736
1834
1942
2054
2172
2294
2435
2573
2723
2881
3050
3227
3415
3610
3830
4055
4292
4545

Traffic Report

STC

Chenani - Nashri Road Tunnel Project in the State of Jammu & Kashmir

Beside the above Baglihar Hydro Electric project is being constructed by JP industries at
Chanderkote (Ramban District). The potential of this project is 900mw and it will be
completed in two phases of 450mw each.
Based on the above developments the consultants had considered 5% as the generated traffic.
The Details of generated traffic is presented in Annexure 3.5.

3.4

Traffic Volume Projections


Based on the adopted growth rates, the traffic volume has been estimated from year 2014 to
2044 using compounded growth rates and presented in Annexure 3.6 and summary of
projected traffic is presented in Table 3.19.
Table 3.19: Projected Traffic on Tunnel Section

Year

Cars

2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

4524
3910
4173
4454
4756
5077
5407
5758
6133
6532
6956
7373
7816
8285
8782
9308
9868
10459
11086
11752
12457
13205
13996
14837
15727
16671
17671
18731

Traffic Forecast

Buses
49
51
53
55
58
60
62
65
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
89
92
96
100
104
108
112
117
122
126
131
137
142

Car
Goods
354
281
293
305
319
331
344
358
372
387
403
419
436
453
472
490
510
530
552
573
596
621
645
671
698
726
755
785

Trucks

Others

425
443
462
482
502
524
545
567
589
613
638
664
690
718
746
776
807
840
873
908
944
982
1021
1062
1105
1149
1195
1243

401
370
399
429
463
497
533
572
613
658
705
755
807
864
924
988
1058
1132
1211
1296
1387
1484
1587
1699
1818
1945
2081
2227

3-20

Toll
Exempted
2625
2352
2457
2568
2683
2804
2930
3062
3200
3344
3494
3642
3797
3959
4127
4302
4485
4676
4875
5082
5298
5523
5758
6002
6257
6523
6800
7090

Total
Vehicles
696
637
681
727
775
828
882
939
1000
1065
1134
1202
1274
1351
1432
1518
1609
1705
1807
1916
2031
2153
2282
2419
2564
2718
2881
3054

PCUs
233
216
234
252
272
294
317
341
368
396
427
458
491
527
565
606
650
697
747
802
860
922
989
1061
1138
1220
1309
1403

Tollable
Vehicles
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
22
24
25
27
29
31
33
36
39
41
44
48
51
55
59
63
67
72

Traffic Report

Tollable
PCUs
321
327
334
340
348
354
362
369
376
382
390
398
406
414
423
431
440
448
457
466
476
485
495
504
515
525
535
545

ANNEXURES

ANNEXURE 2.1
TRAFFIC SURVEY FORMATS

Traffic Study
Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey
Location:

Date:

Surveyor:

Sheet No:

Direction:

Shift:

Weather:

Checked By:

Time
Interval

Car/Jeep/Van
Private

Taxi

Tempo
Traveller

2 wheelers

Small
Auto

Big Auto Minibus Bus (Govt) Bus (Pvt)


6

School
Bus

Car
Goods

LCV

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

10

11

12

13

14

O.K.

Not O.K.

:00
to
:15

:15
to
:30

:30
to
:45

:45
to
:00

Total
Toll Exempted Vehicles : Government Vehicles (Police, VIP, Fire Brigade, Postal Vehicles etc.), Army Vehicles, Ambulence, Mortury Van
Conducted by :

Tractor
4axle to 6 7-axle and Construction/
Tractor
above
Machinnery
Trailer
axle
15

16

17

18

19

Cycle
20

Toll exempted vehicles


Cycle Animal/ Hand
Rick
Cart
Cart Car/Jeep LCV Truck Bus
21

22

23

24

25

26

27

ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY FOR GOODS VEHICLES


Client Name
NAME OF SECTIONS :

LOCATION: ________________________

DIRECTION :

TO: ________________________

Sr.
No.

Time of
Interview

FROM: _______________________________
Vehicle Type

Commodity Type

Load in Tonnes

District of Vehicle
Registration
(Regsitered RTA

National Permit
(Y/N)

Origin Zone
Place

SHEET NO.

SHIFT

DATE

Zone
code

Destination Zone
Place

WEATHER
Trip Purpose

Trip Frequency Trip Length (Km)

Zone
Code

10

11

Vehicle Type
1-Light Com. Vehicle
2-Two Axle Trucks
3-Three Axle Trucks
4-Multi-Axle Vehicle

Trip Purpose
1-Loading
2-Unloading
3-Through

4-Maintenance
5-Home Based
6- Others

Trip Frequency
1-Daily
2-Weekly
3-Monthly

Name of the Enumerator :


Name of the Supervisor :

Return Within 24
Hours (Yes/No)

ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY FOR PASSENGER VEHICLES


Client Name
LOCATION: ________________________

NAME OF SECTIONS :
DIRECTION :
Sr. No.

Time of
Interview

FROM: _______________________________
Vehicle Type

Occupancy

District of Registration
Type of Registraion
(Regsitered RTA Address) (Personal/Commerc
ial) (P/C)

SHEET NO.

TO: ________________________
National Permit
(Y/N)

DATE
Trip Purpose

Origin Zone
Place

Destination Zone
Place

Zone
code

SHIFT
WEATHER
Trip Frequency

Trip Length (Km)

Zone
code

10

11
Vehicle Type
1- Car/Jeep/Van
2- Bus Govt
3- Bus Pvt

4- Mini Bus
5- Others

Trip Purpose
1-Work
2-Education
3-Business

Trip Frequency
4-Home 1-Daily
5-Others 2-Weekly

3-Monthly

Name of Surveyor :
Name of Supervisor :

Return Within 24
Hours (Yes/No)

AXLE LOAD SURVEY

Location:..

Date :..

Direction:

Weather :

S.N0

Vehicle
Type

Origin
Village

Destination

District

Village

District

Commodity
Type

Configuration

Trip
Frequen
cy

Axle Load
1 st Axle

2 nd Axle

3 rd Axle

4 th Axle

5 th Axle

6 th Axle

7 th Axle

8 th Axle

9th Axle

ANNEXURE 2.2
ADT

Traffic Volume Count Km 90.5 of NH 1A

DATE

DAY

9.4.2013

10.4.2013

MODE

Tuesday

12.4.2013

13.4.2013

14.4.2013

15.4.2013

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

Taxi

TempoTr
2
aveller wheelers

Small
Auto

Big Auto Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Bus (Pvt)

School
Bus

Car
Goods

LCV

LCV 6
tyre

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

4axle to 6
axle

7-axle
and
above

Construct
Tractor
ion/
Machinn

Tractor
Trailer

Cycle
Rick

Cycle

Animal/C
art

Toll exempted vehicles

Hand
Cart

Car/Jeep

LCV

Truck

Total

Bus

UP

859

787

146

64

32

11

112

122

83

85

949

253

72

65

64

40

67

3825

DOWN

518

750

139

27

37

112

160

42

50

878

189

82

14

47

37

54

3145

UP

890

777

100

47

17

14

133

175

20

77

1013

230

83

43

51

16

3716

686

871

119

42

23

29

101

143

41

94

874

244

69

21

54

26

3446

UP

775

742

148

60

11

16

107

182

29

107

983

233

48

10

51

147

73

3735

DOWN

655

792

111

35

16

36

93

117

46

97

931

220

63

21

39

49

22

3350

UP

739

823

115

80

13

15

101

173

30

81

906

227

80

10

38

39

43

26

3545

DOWN

568

685

130

38

15

27

99

143

14

68

845

220

74

26

11

37

45

3053

UP

713

760

100

42

112

156

20

104

759

181

67

11

34

11

59

36

3194

DOWN

553

715

88

37

11

17

110

123

36

87

796

200

47

30

34

42

34

2967

UP

869

789

94

53

15

11

100

114

22

110

826

180

66

46

23

27

35

3391

DOWN

730

735

83

39

12

24

89

146

18

93

866

172

40

29

11

48

31

3177

UP

660

777

102

40

12

11

103

176

23

116

967

223

51

12

19

16

115

40

3472

DOWN

600

755

95

25

20

101

128

12

81

771

174

73

27

47

2946

UP

5505

5455

805

386

11

109

87

768

1098

227

680

6403

1527

467

21

55

23

296

161

482

293

DOWN

4310

5303

765

243

122

156

705

960

209

570

5961

1419

448

20

10

168

203

261

221

9815

10758

1570

629

18

16

231

243

1473

16

2058

436

1250

12364

2946

915

41

59

27

11

464

364

743

514

1402

1537

224

90

33

35

210

294

62

179

1766

421

131

66

52

106

73

Wednesday DOWN

11.4.2013

Car/Jeep/
Van
Private

6708

Traffic Volume Count Km 130 of NH 1A

DATE

DAY

9.4.2013

10.4.2013

MODE

Tuesday

12.4.2013

13.4.2013

14.4.2013

15.4.2013

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

Taxi

TempoTr
2
aveller wheelers

Small
Auto

Big Auto Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Bus (Pvt)

Car
Goods

School
Bus

LCV

LCV 6
tyre

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

4axle to 6
axle

7-axle
and
above

Construct
Tractor
ion/
Machinn

Tractor
Trailer

Cycle
Rick

Cycle

Animal/C
art

Toll exempted vehicles

Hand
Cart

Car/Jeep

LCV

Truck

Total

Bus

UP

640

605

157

39

11

52

24

86

132

17

85

865

235

76

53

87

62

80

3325

DOWN

453

646

178

38

55

15

87

161

15

100

827

209

90

27

71

26

54

3060

UP

713

633

142

38

41

91

180

10

86

963

245

72

28

63

72

34

30

3466

541

686

174

39

55

10

103

130

18

84

890

230

84

46

45

87

35

40

3306

UP

642

611

135

37

51

10

91

141

21

92

913

224

62

39

14

50

117

86

75

3415

DOWN

552

671

145

32

46

11

91

139

19

91

898

239

64

47

54

88

18

44

3253

UP

577

685

135

52

51

106

154

16

112

892

237

81

52

20

39

89

52

42

3409

DOWN

499

608

125

42

48

89

147

26

50

848

232

83

54

26

96

27

45

3060

UP

523

573

141

38

44

10

72

137

10

71

671

164

66

61

23

37

78

44

40

2813

DOWN

440

534

125

35

52

11

77

120

17

73

836

203

44

53

25

75

19

25

2771

UP

736

623

134

36

49

10

78

89

19

86

805

193

57

46

40

54

34

42

3141

DOWN

525

636

128

26

43

76

124

22

73

847

154

43

54

45

92

51

30

2983

UP

674

736

158

54

50

93

158

17

84

820

212

49

48

17

34

78

66

41

3410

DOWN

466

564

132

44

41

12

84

128

19

82

934

257

88

36

30

107

39

22

3095

UP

4505

4466

1002

294

28

16

338

74

617

991

110

616

5929

1510

463

281

83

25

316

575

378

350

DOWN

3476

4345

1007

256

340

71

607

949

136

553

6080

1524

496

292

17

252

616

215

260

7981

8811

2009

550

36

25

678

145

1224

12

1940

246

1169

12009

3034

959

573

92

42

10

568

1191

593

610

1140

1259

287

79

97

21

175

277

35

167

1716

433

137

82

13

81

170

85

87

Wednesday DOWN

11.4.2013

Car/Jeep/
Van
Private

6359

ANNEXURE 2.3
PETROL AND DIESEL
DATA

Petrol Pump Data


Location - Km 66 & km101
2010 to 2013
Month

Diesel(Kl)

Petrol(kl)

April

635426

97332

May

789159

109156

June

923732

168252

July

1063655

139993

August

830109

114735

September

731986

96027

October

845442

97748

November

682311

111450

December

639987

99855

January

568676

80320

February

560095

84577

March

631341

95264

ANNEXURE 2.4
AADT

Traffic Volume Count Km 90.5 of NH 1A

DATE

DAY

MODE

Car/Jeep/
Van
Private

Taxi

TempoTr
2
aveller wheelers

Small
Auto

Big Auto Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Bus (Pvt)

School
Bus

Car
Goods

LCV

LCV 6
tyre

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

4axle to 6
axle

7-axle
and
above

Construct
Tractor
ion/
Machinn

Tractor
Trailer

Cycle
Rick

Cycle

Animal/C
art

Toll exempted vehicles

Hand
Cart

Car/Jeep

LCV

Truck

Total

Bus

UP

859

787

146

64

32

11

112

122

83

85

949

253

72

65

64

40

67

3825

DOWN

518

750

139

27

37

112

160

42

50

878

189

82

14

47

37

54

3145

UP

890

777

100

47

17

14

133

175

20

77

1013

230

83

43

51

16

3716

686

871

119

42

23

29

101

143

41

94

874

244

69

21

54

26

3446

UP

775

742

148

60

11

16

107

182

29

107

983

233

48

10

51

147

73

3735

DOWN

655

792

111

35

16

36

93

117

46

97

931

220

63

21

39

49

22

3350

UP

739

823

115

80

13

15

101

173

30

81

906

227

80

10

38

39

43

26

3545

DOWN

568

685

130

38

15

27

99

143

14

68

845

220

74

26

11

37

45

3053

UP

713

760

100

42

112

156

20

104

759

181

67

11

34

11

59

36

3194

DOWN

553

715

88

37

11

17

110

123

36

87

796

200

47

30

34

42

34

2967

UP

869

789

94

53

15

11

100

114

22

110

826

180

66

46

23

27

35

3391

DOWN

730

735

83

39

12

24

89

146

18

93

866

172

40

29

11

48

31

3177

UP

660

777

102

40

12

11

103

176

23

116

967

223

51

12

19

16

115

40

3472

DOWN

600

755

95

25

20

101

128

12

81

771

174

73

27

47

2946

UP

5505

5455

805

386

11

109

87

768

1098

227

680

6403

1527

467

21

55

23

296

161

482

293

DOWN

4310

5303

765

243

122

156

705

960

209

570

5961

1419

448

20

10

168

203

261

221

9815

10758

1570

629

18

16

231

243

1473

16

2058

436

1250

12364

2946

915

41

59

27

11

464

364

743

514

1402

1537

224

90

33

35

210

294

62

179

1766

421

131

66

52

106

73

AADT FACTOR

1.138

1.138

1.138

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.000

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

AADT

1595

1749

255

90

39

41

245

343

72

209

2062

491

153

66

52

106

73

9.4.2013

10.4.2013

Tuesday

Wednesday DOWN

11.4.2013

Thursday

12.4.2013

Friday

13.4.2013

Saturday

14.4.2013

Sunday

15.4.2013

Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

6708

7669

Traffic Volume Count Km 130 of NH 1A

DATE

DAY

MODE

Car/Jeep
/Van
Private

Taxi

2
TempoTr
aveller wheelers

Small
Auto

Big Auto Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Bus (Pvt)

School
Bus

Car
Goods

LCV

LCV 6
tyre

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

4axle to 6
axle

7-axle
and
above

Construc
Tractor
tion/
Machinn

Tractor
Trailer

Cycle
Rick

Cycle

Animal/C
art

Toll exempted vehicles

Hand
Cart

Car/Jeep

LCV

Truck

Total

Bus

UP

640

605

157

39

11

52

24

86

132

17

85

865

235

76

53

87

62

80

3325

DOWN

453

646

178

38

55

15

87

161

15

100

827

209

90

27

71

26

54

3060

UP

713

633

142

38

41

91

180

10

86

963

245

72

28

63

72

34

30

3466

541

686

174

39

55

10

103

130

18

84

890

230

84

46

45

87

35

40

3306

UP

642

611

135

37

51

10

91

141

21

92

913

224

62

39

14

50

117

86

75

3415

DOWN

552

671

145

32

46

11

91

139

19

91

898

239

64

47

54

88

18

44

3253

UP

577

685

135

52

51

106

154

16

112

892

237

81

52

20

39

89

52

42

3409

DOWN

499

608

125

42

48

89

147

26

50

848

232

83

54

26

96

27

45

3060

UP

523

573

141

38

44

10

72

137

10

71

671

164

66

61

23

37

78

44

40

2813

DOWN

440

534

125

35

52

11

77

120

17

73

836

203

44

53

25

75

19

25

2771

UP

736

623

134

36

49

10

78

89

19

86

805

193

57

46

40

54

34

42

3141

DOWN

525

636

128

26

43

76

124

22

73

847

154

43

54

45

92

51

30

2983

UP

674

736

158

54

50

93

158

17

84

820

212

49

48

17

34

78

66

41

3410

DOWN

466

564

132

44

41

12

84

128

19

82

934

257

88

36

30

107

39

22

3095

UP

4505

4466

1002

294

28

16

338

74

617

991

110

616

5929

1510

463

281

83

25

316

575

378

350

DOWN

3476

4345

1007

256

340

71

607

949

136

553

6080

1524

496

292

17

252

616

215

260

7981

8811

2009

550

36

25

678

145

1224

12

1940

246

1169

12009

3034

959

573

92

42

10

568

1191

593

610

1140

1259

287

79

97

21

175

277

35

167

1716

433

137

82

13

81

170

85

87

AADT FACTOR

1.138

1.138

1.138

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.000

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.167

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

AADT

1297

1433

327

79

113

25

204

323

41

195

2003

506

160

96

13

81

170

85

87

9.4.2013

10.4.2013

Tuesday

Wednesday DOWN

11.4.2013

Thursday

12.4.2013

Friday

Saturday

13.4.2013

14.4.2013

Sunday

15.4.2013

Monday

TOTAL

GRAND TOTAL

ADT

6359

7256

ANNEXURE 2.5
AXLE LOAD DATA

Annexure 2.5

Mode
LGV (4 Tyre)
LGV (6 Tyre)
2 axle Truck
3 Axle Truck
MAV

Chenani to Udhampur
0.17
0.3
0.64
0.17
0.19

Udhampur to Chenani
0.25
0.57
3.15
3.62
5.27

AXLE LOAD SURVEY

Locat

CH-73

Date 15.4.2013

Direction: chenani to udhampur Weather :


Axle Load
S.No Vehicle Type

Configuration
st

2
4
7
8
9
28
29
36
40
58
71
78
84
85
91
106
113
133
135
136
139
143
144
147
149
158
161
187
197
208
209
18
19
96
97
142
1
3
5
6
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
30
31
32
33
34

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+1
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2

nd

1 Axle 2 Axle 3
1300
1370
2120
4620
1620
2130
1270
1630
1240
1340
3520
7240
1280
1390
2990
4270
2350
3290
2190
2280
4220
5680
2970
3440
2170
2240
1860
2250
4340
5280
4280
7140
4100
6800
1300
1340
1960
2220
1920
4070
2070
4860
2080
1950
2950
6340
1810
3430
1590
1480
1340
1220
1260
1230
1950
1740
1660
1560
3360
5680
1540
2280
3220
7100
4340
7280
1680
2160
2240
3080
2100
1620
4160
4390
3820
4160
3130
3870
4680
5660
3960
3940
3820
3990
3700
3940
4880
5970
3740
3880
3350
5680
3180
10820
3240
10680
3270
5280
4050
3680
3480
11560
4570
6760
3890
3520
3240
2880
3860
4310
4860
5280
3480
2880
2680
3480
3300
3880
3570
11640
3580
4080

rd

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF
0.003
0.251
0.014
0.005
0.003
1.529
0.002
0.117
0.042
0.018
0.402
0.073
0.017
0.012
0.362
0.763
0.631
0.002
0.013
0.069
0.136
0.013
0.404
0.037
0.004
0.002
0 002
0.002
0.010
0.005
0.302
0.009
0.630
0.821
0.009
0.034
0.012
0.242
0.180
0.101
0.484
0.184
0.169
0.153
0.585
0.154
0.301
3.145
2.993
0.236
0.183
4.105
0.701
0.155
0.074
0.195
0.469
0.093
0.060
0.114
4.226
0.149

Axle Load
S.No Vehicle Type

Configuration
st

35
37
38
39
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
72
73
74
75
76
77
79
80
81
82
83
86
87
89
90
92
93
94
95
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
107
109
110
111
112
114
115
116
117
118

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2

nd

1 Axle 2 Axle 3
3280
4940
3280
4080
3520
4640
2860
3480
2300
3280
5920
5290
3940
5740
3480
4050
3960
3280
5920
6480
2960
8480
3480
5280
3560
5660
3420
6680
3280
3880
3920
4260
3770
3520
3480
4160
2280
6680
3280
3480
2920
9220
3940
4240
4320
4520
4280
4270
4080
3960
3360
5740
3430
4480
3280
3860
3370
5560
2480
3480
3080
3240
3480
3980
3480
4080
4860
9880
2680
3380
3680
3080
3920
4200
3130
4080
3560
3880
3680
6680
3040
3690
4410
3840
3860
4040
3970
5250
2920
5370
4120
2820
3280
4650
4880
16320
2410
2880
2070
3880
2280
3670
2080
2680
2680
2840
4360
4740
3720
3280
3270
3480
3920
3680
3680
4080
3480
3650
4200
3960
4170
3860
4020
4060
2650
3670
2830
3430
3660
4280
3280
4480
2680
3480
2880
3740
3880
3680

rd

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF
0.195
0.123
0.185
0.068
0.041
0.824
0.372
0.138
0.156
1.045
1.207
0.253
0.316
0.521
0.112
0.199
0.141
0.145
0.463
0.094
1.668
0.200
0.278
0.252
0.202
0.312
0.164
0.111
0.284
0.053
0.072
0.134
0.140
2.443
0 057
0.057
0.117
0.195
0.113
0.136
0.546
0.087
0.248
0.177
0.302
0.226
0.166
0.166
16.299
0.033
0.061
0.055
0.021
0.042
0.304
0.127
0.093
0.166
0.159
0.117
0.219
0.209
0.199
0.067
0.065
0.170
0.152
0.060
0.080
0.161

Axle Load
S.No Vehicle Type

Configuration
st

119
120
121
122
123
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
134
138
140
141
145
146
148
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
160
162
163
165
166
167
169
170
171
172
173
174
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
198
199
200
202
203
204
205
206
211
212
213

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2

nd

1 Axle 2 Axle 3
3920
12340
3410
3600
4280
4080
4460
4200
1340
1340
3920
4060
4060
3940
3940
3520
3680
3520
3880
3680
4250
3660
4320
3860
3940
3900
3900
4080
6160
7600
3280
3680
5680
12140
4480
13340
3360
3440
3900
3960
3280
3680
4200
6770
3570
3360
4220
9570
3620
4020
3620
3820
3720
3960
3280
3480
3880
3780
3880
3840
3960
8120
3370
3680
3680
4080
3480
3960
3260
3820
3480
3840
3480
3840
3680
4060
4060
3680
4030
5420
2360
3620
3660
3560
3420
3580
4580
7760
3460
4020
3480
3940
4080
3880
3280
3380
3140
3080
3660
3620
3340
3220
3330
3360
3280
3160
3480
6360
3280
3160
3830
3880
3440
3280
3080
3480
3310
3680
3480
3750
2880
3720
3480
3410
3280
3290
3480
3560
3680
3580
3690
3300
2480
4680
3680
14480
5940
8140

rd

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF
5.354
0.109
0.239
0.279
0.002
0.186
0.198
0.162
0.131
0.161
0.212
0.234
0.179
0.184
1.511
0.102
5.448
7.355
0.099
0.177
0.102
0.638
0.114
2.059
0.149
0.139
0.156
0.094
0.165
0.168
1.110
0.109
0.159
0.133
0 108
0.108
0.126
0.126
0.158
0.185
0.334
0.055
0.131
0.109
1.050
0.134
0.132
0.197
0.090
0.072
0.133
0.090
0.094
0.083
0.446
0.083
0.165
0.100
0.081
0.105
0.122
0.079
0.108
0.087
0.114
0.134
0.124
0.128
10.012
1.646

Axle Load
S.No Vehicle Type

Configuration
st

214
222
223
234
235
241
250
254
256
257
261
262
263
264
267
269
88
108
124
132
137
159
164
168
175
188
207
210
216
217
218
219
220
221
224
225
229
230
231
232
233
236
237
238
239
242
243
244
248
251
252
253
255
258
265
266
268
215
226
227
228
240
245
246
249
259
51
247
260

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5

1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2+2
1+2+2+2+2
1+2+2+2+2

nd

1 Axle 2 Axle 3
3740
3520
2700
2950
2710
2280
3280
8970
3960
6880
4580
10680
3280
5880
2880
7990
4710
9480
3540
4520
3480
3040
4740
11160
4330
10140
3100
3840
4150
6270
3450
2840
4270
3480
4800
3920
2800
3400
4320
3960
3720
3360
4250
3280
3690
3960
4410
3680
3560
3280
4540
5940
3640
3520
3480
3480
3570
3370
2780
2280
2860
3110
3680
2880
3480
290
3140
2280
2690
2360
3880
3740
3940
3680
3340
5480
3080
3140
3340
3880
4260
4210
4380
3260
3560
4780
3960
4320
3480
4120
4580
3680
3760
3480
3820
3260
3820
3350
3100
3340
3480
3780
4080
3750
4030
3480
3770
4540
2370
3140
2380
2860
4140
3280
3380
3640
3570
4230
3080
4120
3860
4110
3380
5460
3340
5390
4080
3460
3790
3740
3740
3590
3160
3560
3480
3580
3920
3920
3140
3750

rd

Axle

3850
3880
3360
3960
3480
2880
4160
3740
3230
7080
3580
3440
3170
2880
2160
2780
2740
2380
2380
4080
2560
4160
3370
3140
3740
3380
3080
2990
3340
3480
3680
2960
3670
3300
3500
2820
3040
4340
2670
2680
3080
3740
2980
3680
2480
3640
6400
3120
2710
2880
3880
3680
4900
3780

th

Axle

3740
3040
3330
3060
3220
6400
3240
2560
2760
3940
3580
4900
3940

th

Axle

3580
4900
3310

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF
0.138
0.045
0.035
1.521
0.635
3.166
0.331
0.955
2.081
0.177
0.097
3.765
2.570
0.098
0.505
0.089
0.233
0.354
0.074
0.262
0.145
0.201
0.184
0.260
0.120
0.796
0.143
0.123
0.122
0.046
0.051
0.117
0.079
0.061
0.038
0.194
0.157
0.238
0.083
0.114
0.253
0.233
0.161
0.186
0.139
0.284
0.158
0.142
0.161
0.087
0.133
0.183
0.175
0.230
0.039
0.036
0.187
0.175
0.131
0.123
0.156
0.137
0.979
0.203
0.134
0.136
0.181
0.185
0.429
0.170

AXLE LOAD SURVEY

Location:CH-73

Date 15.4.2013

Direction:Udhampur To Chenani

Weather :

S.No

Vehicle
Type

Axle Load
Configuration
1 st Axle

2 nd Axle

7
10

1 1+1

630

780

1 1+1

1770

4860

11

1 1+1

890

6490

12

1 1+1

4080

4500

14

1 1+1

2650

5080

15

1 1+1

4650

8760

22

1 1+1

910

3780

24

1 1+1

1510

3440

25

1 1+1

1460

3340

29

1 1+1

1530

3860

30

1 1+1

960

3080

34

1 1+1

1290

1690

36

1 1+1

1120

2310

38

1 1+1

1460

3260

48

1 1+1

1360

4190

49

1 1+1

1380

3220

60

1 1+1

1580

4490

65

1 1+1

1670

3340

72

1 1+1

760

1330

79
97

1 1+1

1160

3280

1 1+1

1280

2680

104

1 1+1

1170

1460

107

1 1+1

1190

3810

137

1 1+1

1140

3600

150

1 1+1

1540

2370

155

1 1+1

520

1680

182

1 1+1

820

2970

21

1 1+2

1690

1840

33

1 1+2

3240

5640

35

1 1+2

4330

7700

44

1 1+2

1720

2080

106
130

1 1+2

2720

6240

1 1+2

2660

4130

153

1 1+2

2140

4940

2 1+2

5620

7220

2 1+2

3960

5620

2 1+2

4430

6020

2 1+2

5170

11500

2 1+2

6260

12800

13
16

2 1+2

6450

5750

2 1+2

5410

9100

17

2 1+2

5870

16820

18

2 1+2

4080

12040

20

2 1+2

5230

11060

23

2 1+2

3430

16710

26

2 1+2

4700

9060

27

2 1+2

4970

15470

31

2 1+2

4260

8240

32

2 1+2

4860

12630

37

2 1+2

6380

8690

39

2 1+2

2520

11880

40

2 1+2

4640

13100

41

2 1+2

4420

12500

43

2 1+2

4630

11300

3 rd Axle

4 th Axle

5 th Axle

6 th Axle

7 th Axle

8 th Axle

9th Axle

VDF

0.000
0.299
0.935
0.362
0.377
3.350
0.108
0.077
0.068
0.120
0.048
0.006
0.016
0.062
0.164
0.059
0.217
0.070
0.002
0.062
0.029
0.003
0.112
0.089
0 020
0.020
0.004
0.041
0.010
0.591
2.038
0.014
0.828
0.180
0.325
1.139
0.355
0.499
4.321
6.864
1.159
1.998
18.678
4.886
3.769
17.658
1.777
13.240
1.213
6.033
2.159
4.514
6.887
5.708
3.920

45

2 1+2

5020

10240

46

2 1+2

3160

11060

2.815
3.427

47

2 1+2

4420

13020

6.683

S.No

Vehicle
Type

Axle Load
Configuration
st

1 Axle

nd

Axle

51

2 1+2

3080

10380

52

2 1+2

5660

8860

54

2 1+2

4880

6510

56

2 1+2

4020

10240

57

2 1+2

4050

14800

58

2 1+2

4310

12240

59

2 1+2

6870

14480

61
64

2 1+2

3880

10480

2 1+2

4480

7380

66

2 1+2

5520

10470

67

2 1+2

5070

13050

68

2 1+2

3610

10040

69

2 1+2

5620

8220

71

2 1+2

5740

11290

73

2 1+2

4140

11920

75

2 1+2

5520

9490

76

2 1+2

4940

8940

77

2 1+2

5860

16820

80

2 1+2

5520

7280

83

2 1+2

5400

11520

84

2 1+2

3280

11280

85

2 1+2

4620

10280

86

2 1+2

5280

10670

88

2 1+2

4140

5500

89

2 1+2

4850

12740

90

2 1+2

3830

8020

91

2 1+2

3280

7740

92

2 1+2

3080

13680

94

2 1+2

5300

10650

96

2 1+2

4580

7300

98

2 1+2

3680

9700

100

2 1+2

4740

8540

102

1 2
2 1+2

4820

12380

103

2 1+2

5140

9560

105

2 1+2

4360

9020

108

2 1+2

4740

9480

109

2 1+2

4160

8560

110

2 1+2

4880

7780

111

2 1+2

4330

8760

112

2 1+2

3560

10770

113

2 1+2

3960

9750

115

2 1+2

4480

6880

116

2 1+2

4420

8360

117

2 1+2

3280

7880

118

2 1+2

4560

8860

119

2 1+2

3560

4650

120

2 1+2

4650

7280

121

2 1+2

3880

11280

122

2 1+2

3840

15520

123

2 1+2

4020

7880

124

2 1+2

3880

7080

125

2 1+2

3080

7280

126

2 1+2

4500

11420

127

2 1+2

4480

10140

128

2 1+2

4080

9150

129

2 1+2

5280

7290

131

2 1+2

6680

9560

132

2 1+2

4820

9220

133

2 1+2

4460

9210

134

2 1+2

3820

8420

135

2 1+2

3960

8370

rd

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF

2.666
1.931
0.704
2.618
10.963
5.244
11.089
2.840
0.881
3.200
6.890
2.381
1.555
4.237
4.708
2.319
1.755
18.674
1.123
4.420
3.713
2.759
3.333
0.361
6.233
1.047
0.870
7.947
3.317
0.872
2.093
1.466
5 583
5.583
2.252
1.683
2.088
1.369
1.125
1.513
3.119
2.168
0.718
1.303
0.931
1.618
0.190
0.880
3.771
13.201
1.007
0.686
0.681
4.052
2.597
1.727
1.047
2.933
1.914
1.831
1.246
1.237
10.883

136

2 1+2

4860

14720

138

2 1+2

5780

10240

139

2 1+2

5060

8200

3.068
1.365

140

2 1+2

2960

8400

1.163

S.No

Vehicle
Type

Axle Load
Configuration
st

1 Axle

nd

Axle

rd

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF

142

2 1+2

4190

7600

0.915

143

2 1+2

4890

10040

144

2 1+2

2810

9370

2.593
1.771
2.684

145

2 1+2

4270

10270

146

2 1+2

4120

7950

147

2 1+2

3460

9340

148

2 1+2

3560

9420

149

2 1+2

4590

9620

152

2 1+2

4790

6860

154

2 1+2

3740

7880

156

2 1+2

3770

7940

159

2 1+2

3340

3940

160

2 1+2

3480

6480

161

2 1+2

3100

6880

165

2 1+2

5080

12080

166
169

2 1+2

4920

12890

2 1+2

4520

8820

171

2 1+2

3730

5280

172

2 1+2

3480

10340

173

2 1+2

3960

8940

174

2 1+2

3740

5480

175

2 1+2

3920

6520

176

2 1+2

4080

8680

177

2 1+2

3880

9040

178

2 1+2

4480

8540

179

2 1+2

4240

7480

180

2 1+2

4740

6280

181

2 1+2

3970

8020

183

2 1+2

5320

6970

184

2 1+2

6250

13790

185

2 1+2

3940

7140

186

2 1+2

4080

12550

187

1 2
2 1+2

3480

11080

188

2 1+2

5420

10860

189

2 1+2

3280

6540

190

2 1+2

4170

10960

191

2 1+2

4300

10960

192

2 1+2

4480

13210
12290

193

2 1+2

6260

195

2 1+2

5680

9920

196

2 1+2

4090

12940

198

2 1+2

5340

9680

199

2 1+2

4950

9420

200

2 1+2

5480

9960

201

2 1+2

4680

10360
10290

203

2 1+2

5550

205

2 1+2

3560

9740

207

2 1+2

5480

7680

208

2 1+2

7570

12290

209

2 1+2

5980

14090

212

2 1+2

4860

8100
10720

214

2 1+2

4680

216

2 1+2

3880

9480

217

2 1+2

6250

13880

218

2 1+2

4080

8270

221

2 1+2

5740

10740

222

2 1+2

4340

7340

227

2 1+2

5120

11420
3880

228

2 1+2

3480

229

2 1+2

3440

4220

230

2 1+2

3480

3840

234

2 1+2

4800

8820
12140

1.053
1.792
1.861
2.166
0.777
0.973
1.003
0.120
0.475
0.554
5.154
6.535
1.585
0.277
2.656
1.570
0.307
0.532
1.426
1.626
1.412
0.876
0.617
1.064
0.954
8.961
0.713
5.741
3 477
3.477
3.592
0.474
3.414
3.435
7.081
5.955
2.733
6.471
2.409
2.092
2.695
2.851
3.029
2.115
1.260
6.876
9.564
1.265
3.231
1.941
9.176
1.201
3.573
0.842
4.198
0.128
0.145

237

2 1+2

5110

238

2 1+2

4260

6250

0.126
1.645
5.258
0.518

239

2 1+2

3480

7220

0.690

S.No

Axle Load

Vehicle
Type

Configuration
st

1 Axle

nd

Axle

240

2 1+2

3340

6340

247

2 1+2

7280

9960

249

2 1+2

4300

9410

250

2 1+2

3950

11330

251

2 1+2

4750

9020

253

2 1+2

4240

8200

rd

Axle

11770

4870

5680

257

2 1+2

4540

10440

3 1+2+2

5780

8410

8860
10460

1
4

3 1+2+2

6400

10400

3 1+2+2

3850

6000

10740

19
28

3 1+2+2

7120

11720

11760

82

151
157
158

163
164
167
168
170
194
197

202
204
210

211
213
215
219

220
223
224
225

226
231

232
233

235
236

241
242
243

244
245
246
248
252
254
258
62
63
162

3
3
3
3
3
3

1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2

10850
4090
5420
5360
8860
7450

14260
3680
9080
11250
11520
13840

14290
3720
9160
11350
11540
13780

3
3
3
3

1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2

6340
6400
5220
6500

10400
9960
7040
9820

10360
9920
7400
10220

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2

4620
5760
6540
6420
4420
3680
4810
7260
5220
5550
5660

8070
9420
11740
7880
8940
9650
4300
8680
10340
8770
9340

8300
8820
11720
7980
7940
9740
5280
8850
10380
9240
9640

3
3
3
3
3
3
3

1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2

4380
4940
5840
5620
4690
6320
6490

9480
8020
8980
9220
8740
10880
9850

9740
7980
9040
6860
7340
7150
11040

3 1+2+2
3 1+2+2
3 1+2+2

4890
5480
6450

9700
9860
11050

7680
11480
9530

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4

5680
5880
5890
4880
3890
6620
8160
5140
5680
6480
5340
4520
6070
4080
4380
5600
7960
4420
5180
5880
6360
4280
4860
6410
4820
3480

9560
11890
10560
9710
7280
9440
7940
7280
8640
9520
7360
9520
9510
7680
7740
7360
12420
7220
7760
9960
11810
7850
8360
12160
11370
2240

7880
8300
9020
10700
10620
8870
7280
7540
7340
9160
7480
7340
8300
8340
8500
7740
11940
8560
7480
12280
11840
6940
8250
11400
11680
9420

1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF

4.738
0.531

5280

2 1+2

87
93
95
99
101
114
141

1.761
1.190

2 1+2

74
78
81

Axle

1.949
3.845

255

55
70

th

0.430
3.700

256

42
50
53

2.903
2.360
4.656

12670
11930
9760

1.680
7.410
20.540
0.207
2.660
5.632
8.881
13.218
4.552
3.996
1.257
4.154
1.671
2.785
6.999
2.156
1.819
2.913
0.450
3.345
4.063
2.596
3.126
2.913
1.620
2.714
1.858
1.587
2.946
4.729
2.119
4.607
4.486
2.392
3.940
3.562
3.756
2.166
3.251
3.406
1.329
1.848
3.355
1.395
1.830
2.720
1.458
1.580
1.554
9.131
1.436
1.454
5.504
7.095
1.130
1.810
12.508
10.244
2.779

S.No
206
207
208
209

Axle Load

Vehicle
Type

Configuration
st

4
4
4
4

1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2
1+2+2+2

nd

rd

th

1 Axle
2 Axle 3 Axle 4 Axle
5
5740
10960
10760
10280
3480
5500
7000
7000
3900
5900
6400
6200
4280
6300
7800
7800

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

Axle

th

9 Axle

VDF

7.731
1.049
0.897
1.712

ANNEXURE 2.6
OD MATRICES

Km 73
Cars
D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

20

15

49

0p

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

11

12

10

30

16

245

27

20

335

18

11

18

12

36

17

15

288

25

13

378

22

12

23

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

10

10

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

10

31

27

323

30

13

68

308

50

25

10

941

Km 73
Govt Bus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

10

Km 73
Pvt Bus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

24

47

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

31

12

13

78

Km 73
Mini Bus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

11

Km 73
Car Goods
D/O

Total

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 Total
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

26

27

18

19

20

21

28

44

22

23

24

10

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

28

49

14

120

Km 73
LGV 6 Tyre

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

20

26

18

19

20

21

19

37

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

26

13

24

84

Km 73
2 Axle Truck

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

12

13

14

15

16

17

237

10

37

32

325

18

19

11

12

20

21

276

10

306

22

23

24

16

22

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

43

45

38

39

40

26

26

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

371

11

284

21

39

32

803

Km 73
3 Axle Truck

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

41

34

14

105

18

19

20

21

28

29

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

38

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

69

42

34

14

179

Km 73
MAV

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

13

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

17

18

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

26

40

Km 130
Cars
D/O

Total

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 Total
0

33

38

0
3

10

11

38

52

12

13

10

14

15

16

13

13

17

12

333

20

395

18

19

20

12

18

21

30

15

362

434

22

30

32

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

10

10

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

46

78

19

431

18

371

21

1047

Km 130
Govt Bus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

Km 130
Pvt Bus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

19

20

18

19

20

21

18

22

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

21

22

52

Km 130
Minibus

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

16

17

10

11

20

20

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

20

19

45

Km 130
Car Goods
D/O

Total

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46 Total
0

0
3

10

11

10

12

13

14

15

16

17

37

45

18

19

20

14

21

23

33

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

13

34

18

41

127

Km 130
LGV 6 Tyre

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

39

51

18

19

20

21

12

18

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

23

45

92

Km 130
2 Axle Truck

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

10

264

19

46

37

400

18

19

20

11

20

21

11

14

12

275

322

22

23

24

25

19

31

26

27

11

12

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

39

40

38

39

40

40

42

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

17

19

16

388

17

297

22

50

45

917

Km 130
3 Axle Truck

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

21

42

12

97

18

19

20

21

40

43

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

37

42

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

98

23

47

12

216

Km 130
MAV

D/O

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

15

40

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

12

13

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46
Total

46 Total

16

16

61

ANNEXURE 3.1
REGISTRED VEHICLE DATA

Annexure 3.1

Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Jammu Kaskmir


Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

Cars
Buses
LGV
Trucks
85812
20735
13949
31515
98309
21435
16843
33174
112135
22161
20004
35697
128398
23149
22674
38977
145060
24051
24768
41696
172071
23480
43238
35109
198238
25858
46792
35414

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways


Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Punjab
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10

Cars
Buses
LGV
Trucks
300594
19855
53799
64967
335284
21136
59566
68154
367655
22373
20186
119630
406966
24457
129797
444465
25682
139065
484064
27146
149367

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways


Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Delhi
Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

Cars
Buses
LGV
Trucks
1536897
38500
91698
82525
1668880
39622
105331
83770
1802251
41142
124180
84114
1956574
43250
140872
85384
2116107
45757
156030
86301

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

Annexure 3.1
Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Rajasthan
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

Cars
Buses
LGV
Trucks
234297
58092
17674
191207
269861
60979
22966
206381
310101
63320
116861
152223
355122
65605
127937
169486
402239
69298
138487
179631
455924
73257
148892
198089
520385
77980
162837
222959

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

Total Registered Motor Vehicles - Maharashtra


Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

Cars
Buses
LGV
Trucks
1039800
63405
293843
266004
1165365
66754
334741
287230
1308088
71187
383854
316502
1462518
77042
436725
344267
1603728
79073
478975
366642
1790259
83816
521692
374705
2027080
89861
583847
389941

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways

ANNEXURE 3.2
REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis
State Delhi
Vehicle Registartion Data
Year
Cars
Buses
1536897
2006-07
1668880
2007-08
1802251
2008-09
1956574
2009-10
2116107
2010-11
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

NSDP
9471700
10447300
11744400
13068300
14696100
16316100
18097400

38500
39622
41142
43250
45757

Trucks
82525
83770
84114
85384
86301

PCI
63877
69128
76243
83243
91845
100050
108876

Regression Analysis
Trucks with NSDP
Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.99995505
0.99991009
0.74991009
0.12025373
5

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
4
5
Coefficients

Standard Error

Intercept
0
X Variable 0.79904678

MS

Significance F

643.3098253 643.3098 44485.97 2.35E-07


0.057843838 0.014461
643.3676691

#N/A
0.003788442

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
210.917 3.03E-09 0.788528 0.809565 0.788528 0.809565

Cars with PCI


Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.99999463
0.99998927
0.74998927
0.05277066
5

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
4
5
Coefficients

Intercept
0
X Variable 1.26118198

MS

Significance F

1037.696104 1037.696 372636.2 9.69E-09


0.011138972 0.002785
1037.707243
Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
0.002066023 610.4394 4.32E-11 1.255446 1.266918 1.255446 1.266918

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis
State J&K
Vehicle Registartion Data
Year
Cars
Buses
2004-05
85812
2005-06
98309
2006-07
112135
2007-08
128398
2008-09
145060
2009-10
172071
2010-11
198238
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

NSDP
2329200
2437100
2579400
2738700
2910200
3031200
3218700

20735
21435
22161
23149
24051
23480
25858

Trucks
31515
33174
35697
38977
41696
35109
35414

PCI
21734
22406
23375
24470
25641
26344
27607

Regression Analysis
Trucks with NSDP
Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.93911012
0.88192781
0.85831337
0.03710015
7

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
5
6
Coefficients

Standard Error

Intercept -1.11642067
X Variable 0.78476263

MS

Significance F

0.051405161 0.051405 37.34697412 0.001700204


0.006882105 0.001376
0.058287266
t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

1.903251378 -0.58659 0.582964186 -6.008884084 3.776043 -6.00888 3.776043


0.128413476 6.111217 0.001700204 0.454665278 1.11486 0.454665 1.11486

Cars with PCI


Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.99987779
0.99975559
0.83308893
0.19879038
7

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
6
7
Coefficients

Intercept
0
X Variable 1.16499182

MS

969.8911453 969.8911 24543.26027


0.237105699 0.039518
970.128251
Standard Error

t Stat

#N/A
#N/A
0.007436297 156.6629

P-value

Significance F

2.01041E-10

Lower 95%

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
4.56277E-12 1.146795856 1.183188 1.146796 1.183188

Annexure 3.2

Buses with PCI


Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.99999761
0.99999522
0.83332856
0.02370321
7

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
6
7
Coefficients

Intercept
0
X Variable 0.99370061

MS

705.6483909 705.6484 1255954.755


0.003371053 0.000562
705.6517619
Standard Error

t Stat

#N/A
#N/A
0.000886683 1120.694

P-value

Significance F

1.07366E-14

Lower 95%

#N/A
#N/A
3.40703E-17 0.991530975

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A
#N/A
0.99587 0.991531

#N/A
0.99587

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis
State Maharashtra
Vehicle Registartion Data
Year
Cars
Buses
2004-05
1039800
2005-06
1165365
2006-07
1308088
2007-08
1462518
2008-09
1603728
2009-10
1790259
2010-11
2027080
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

NSDP
36836871
42650340
48807940
54231132
58583421
63482861
70283194

63405
66754
71187
77042
79073
83816
89861

Trucks
266004
287230
316502
344267
366642
374705
389941

PCI
35915
40947
46158
50532
51053
57458
62729

Regression Analysis
Trucks with NSDP
Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

0.99999315
0.99998629
0.83331963
0.05084114
7

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
6
7
Coefficients

Intercept
0
X Variable 0.82205532

MS

1131.51087 1131.511
0.015508929 0.002585
1131.526379
Standard Error

t Stat

#N/A
#N/A
0.001242473 661.6283

437752.0334

P-value

Significance F

1.497E-13

Lower 95%

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
8.04644E-16 0.819015098 0.825096 0.819015 0.825096

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis
State Punjab
Vehicle Registartion Data
Year
Cars
Buses
2004-05
300594
2005-06
335284
2006-07
367655
2007-08
406966
2008-09
444465
2009-10
484064
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

NSDP
8610800
9033000
10007200
10873800
11476600
12180200
12993300

19855
21136
22373
24457
25682
27146

Trucks
64967
68154
119630
129797
139065
149367

PCI
33103
34096
37087
39567
41003
42727
44752

Regression Analysis
Trucks with NSDP
Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.933438153
R Square 0.871306785
Adjusted R 0.845568142
Standard Er 0.14186171
Observation
7
ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
5
6
Coefficients

Intercept
-19.0183861
X Variable 2.207945919

MS

Significance F

0.681264617 0.681265 33.85209 0.002118


0.100623724 0.020125
0.781888342
Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

5.266377691 -3.611284 0.01536 -32.55604 -5.480731 -32.55604 -5.480731


0.379485954 5.818255 0.002118 1.232446 3.183446 1.232446 3.183446

Annexure 3.2

Regression Analysis
State Rajasthan
Vehicle Registartion Data
Year
Cars
Buses
2004-05
234297
2005-06
269861
2006-07
310101
2007-08
355122
2008-09
402239
2009-10
455924
2010-11
520385
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11

NSDP
11263572
12020228
13434991
14047148
15062054
15684408
17265633

58092
60979
63320
65605
69298
73257
77980

Trucks
191207
206381
152223
169486
179631
198089
222959

PCI
18565
19445
21342
21922
23356
24166
26436

Regression Analysis
Trucks with NSDP
Regression Statistics

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observation

0.99956838
0.99913694
0.99896433
0.00396581
7

ANOVA
df

Regression
Residual
Total

SS

1
5
6
Coefficients

Intercept -0.83924692
X Variable 0.76552959

MS

Significance F

0.091036765 0.091037 5788.334 7.43E-09


7.86381E-05 1.57E-05
0.091115403
Standard Error

0.142480993
0.01006202

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

-5.89024 0.002005 -1.20551 -0.47299 -1.20551 -0.47299


76.0811 7.43E-09 0.739664 0.791395 0.739664 0.791395

ANNEXURE 3.3
TRAFFIC PROJECTION AT NORMAL GROWTH
(WITHOUT DIVERSION AND WITHOUT
GENERATED TRAFFIC)

Traffic Projection at Km 90.5 Normal Growth (Without Diversion and Without Generated Traffic)
Passenger
Car/Jeep/
Van
Private
Taxi

Year

Tempo
Traveller 2 wheelers Auto

Goods

Auto Big

Minibus

Car
Bus (Govt) Bus (Pvt) School Bus Goods

LCV (11)

2axle
LCV (1-2) Truck

3axle
Truck

Agricultural
Constructi
on/
4axle to 6 7-axle and Machinne
Tractor
axle
above
ry
Tractor
Trailer

Nonmotorised

Cycle

Toll Exempted

Animal/C Hand
Cycle Rick art
Cart

Car/Jeep

LCV

Truck

Total
Number

Bus

2013

1595

1749

255

90

39

41

245

343

72

209

2062

491

153

66

52

106

73

Growth
Rate (%)

7.00

7.00

7.00

9.00

5.00

5.00

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

8.00

8.00

5.00

7.00

8.50

8.50

8.50

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

PCUs

Tollable
PCUs

7669

14427

13665

2014

1707

1871

273

98

41

43

256

358

78

226

2165

525

166

67

53

108

74

8138

15260

14483

2015

1826

2002

292

107

43

45

268

375

84

244

2273

562

180

69

54

110

76

8639

16145

15348

2016

1954

2143

312

117

45

47

280

391

91

263

2387

601

195

70

55

112

77

9171

17083

16268

2017

2091

2293

334

127

47

49

292

409

98

284

2506

644

212

10

71

56

115

79

9741

18092

17249

6.75

6.75

6.75

8.50

4.75

4.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

7.75

4.50

6.75

8.00

8.00

8.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Growth
Rate (%)
2018

2232

2448

357

138

49

51

304

426

106

306

2619

687

229

11

72

57

117

81

10314

19087

18224

2019

2383

2613

381

150

51

53

317

445

114

330

2737

734

247

12

10

74

58

120

82

10926

20146

19259

2020

2544

2789

406

162

53

56

331

463

123

355

2860

783

267

13

10

75

59

122

84

11571

21263

20355

2021

2715

2978

434

176

56

58

345

483

132

383

2988

836

288

14

10

77

61

124

86

12261

22449

21513

2022

2899

3179

463

191

58

60

360

504

142

412

3123

893

311

15

10

78

62

127

87

12992

23704

22744

6.50

6.50

6.50

8.00

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.25

7.25

4.50

6.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Growth
Rate (%)
2023

3087

3386

493

206

60

62

374

524

152

442

3264

951

335

16

10

80

63

130

89

13742

24995

24010

2024

3288

3606

525

223

63

65

389

545

163

474

3410

1013

361

17

11

81

65

132

91

14540

26364

25352

2025

3502

3840

559

241

65

67

405

567

175

508

3564

1079

389

19

11

83

66

135

92

15387

27819

26777

2026

3729

4090

596

260

68

70

421

590

188

545

3724

1149

419

20

11

84

67

137

94

16283

29347

28280

2027

3972

4356

634

281

71

73

438

613

201

585

3892

1223

452

22

12

86

68

140

96

17236

30975

29878

6.00

6.00

6.00

7.50

4.25

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.00

7.00

4.25

6.00

7.25

7.25

7.25

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Growth
Rate (%)
2028

4210

4617

672

302

74

76

456

638

215

626

4057

1296

485

24

12

88

69

143

98

18179

32587

31461

2029

4463

4894

712

325

77

79

474

663

230

670

4230

1374

520

25

13

89

71

146

100

19177

34286

33127

2030

4731

5188

755

349

80

82

493

690

246

717

4410

1457

558

27

13

91

72

149

102

20234

36088

34893

2031

5015

5499

800

375

83

85

512

717

263

767

4597

1544

598

29

14

93

74

152

104

21345

37972

36742

2032

5315

5829

848

403

86

89

533

746

282

820

4792

1637

641

31

14

95

75

155

106

22521

39965

38703

2033

5634

6179

899

434

90

92

554

776

302

878

4996

1735

688

33

14

97

77

158

108

23770

42076

40778

2034

5972

6550

953

466

93

96

576

807

323

939

5208

1839

738

36

15

99

78

161

110

25086

44303

42964

2035

6331

6943

1010

501

97

100

599

839

345

1005

5430

1949

791

39

15

101

80

164

112

26479

46649

45272

2036

6711

7359

1071

539

101

104

623

872

370

1075

5661

2066

849

41

16

103

81

167

115

27953

49129

47708

2037

10

7113

7801

1135

579

105

108

648

907

395

1151

5901

2190

910

44

16

105

83

171

117

29508

51739

50276

2038

11

7540

8269

1204

623

109

112

674

944

423

1231

6152

2322

976

48

17

10

107

85

174

119

31159

54510

52999

2039

12

7992

8765

1276

669

10

114

117

701

981

453

1318

6413

2461

1047

51

17

10

109

86

178

122

32903

57429

55868

2040

13

8472

9291

1352

719

10

118

122

729

1021

484

1410

6686

2609

1123

55

18

10

111

88

181

124

34746

60510

58902

2041

14

8980

9848

1433

773

11

123

126

758

1062

518

1508

6970

2765

1204

59

18

11

113

90

185

127

36695

63763

62096

2042

15

9519

10439

1519

831

11

128

131

789

1104

555

1614

7266

2931

1292

63

19

11

116

92

188

129

38761

67205

65487

2043

16

10090

11066

1611

894

12

133

137

820

1148

593

1727

7575

3107

1385

67

19

11

118

93

192

132

40945

70834

69058

2044

17

10696

11730

1707

961

12

138

142

853

1194

635

1848

7897

3293

1486

72

20

12

120

95

196

134

43256

74675

72837

2045

18

12328

13518

1967

1033

13

148

156

942

1367

757

2183

9077

3848

1762

81

20

12

123

97

200

137

49784

86089

Traffic Projection at Km 130 Normal Growth (Without Diversion and Without Generated Traffic)
Passenger
Car/Jeep/
Van
Private
Taxi

Year

Tempo
2
Traveller wheelers Auto

Goods

Auto Big Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Car
Bus (Pvt) School Bu Goods

2axle
LCV (1-1) LCV (1-2) Truck

3axle
Truck

7-axle
4axle to 6 and
above
axle

Agricultural
Construct
ion/
Machinne
Tractor
ry
Trailer
Tractor

Nonmotorised

Cycle

Cycle
Rick

Toll Exempted

Animal/C Hand
art
Cart

Car/Jeep LCV

Truck

Total
Number

Bus

2013

1297

1433

327

79

113

25

204

323

41

195

2003

506

160

96

13

81

170

85

87

Growth
Rate (%)

7.00

7.00

7.00

9.00

5.00

5.00

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

8.00

8.00

5.00

7.00

8.50

8.50

8.50

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

PCUs

Tollable
PCUs

7256

14223

13276

2014

1388

1533

350

86

118

26

213

338

44

211

2103

541

174

104

13

83

173

87

89

7692

15044

14074.5

2015

1485

1641

374

94

123

27

223

353

48

227

2208

579

188

113

14

84

177

88

91

8156

15914

14921.5

2016

1589

1755

401

102

129

29

233

369

52

246

2319

620

204

123

14

86

180

90

92

8654

16852

15835

2017

1700

1878

429

112

135

30

243

385

56

265

2435

663

222

133

15

88

184

92

94

9180

17836

16792.5

6.75

6.75

6.75

8.50

4.75

4.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

7.75

4.50

6.75

8.00

8.00

8.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

17754.5

Growth
Rate (%)
2018

1815

2005

458

122

141

31

253

401

60

286

2545

708

240

144

15

90

188

94

96

9713

18823

2019

1937

2140

489

132

147

33

264

418

65

308

2659

756

259

155

16

92

191

96

98

10277

19864

18769

2020

2068

2285

522

143

153

34

275

436

70

332

2779

807

280

168

16

93

195

98

100

10878

20975

19850.5

2021

2208

2439

557

155

159

35

287

455

75

357

2904

861

302

181

17

95

199

100

102

11512

22138

20986

2022

2357

2603

595

168

166

37

299

474

81

385

3034

919

326

195

17

97

203

102

104

12187

23374

22194.5

6.50

6.50

6.50

8.00

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.25

7.25

4.50

6.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Growth
Rate (%)
2023

2510

2772

634

181

173

38

311

493

87

413

3171

979

351

210

18

99

207

104

106

12882

24654

23446

2024

2673

2952

675

196

180

40

323

513

93

443

3313

1042

378

226

18

101

211

106

108

13618

26002

24765

2025

2847

3144

719

212

187

42

336

533

100

475

3462

1110

408

244

19

103

215

108

110

14402

27447

26176

2026

3032

3349

765

229

10

194

43

350

555

107

509

3618

1182

439

263

19

105

220

110

113

15231

28965

27660

2027

3229

3566

815

247

10

202

45

364

577

115

546

3781

1259

473

283

20

107

224

113

115

16110

30575

29236.5

6.00

6.00

6.00

7.50

4.25

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.00

7.00

4.25

6.00

7.25

7.25

7.25

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

Growth
Rate (%)
2028

3423

3780

864

266

10

210

47

379

600

123

584

3942

1335

507

304

21

109

228

115

117

16983

32177

30807

2029

3628

4007

916

285

11

218

49

394

624

132

625

4109

1415

544

326

21

10

111

233

118

120

17907

33873

32459.5

2030

3846

4247

971

307

11

227

51

409

649

141

669

4284

1499

584

349

22

10

114

238

120

122

18881

35650

34202

2031

4077

4502

1029

330

12

236

53

426

675

151

716

4466

1589

626

374

23

10

116

242

122

124

19910

37528

36045.5

2032

4321

4772

1091

355

12

246

55

443

702

161

766

4656

1685

671

402

23

10

118

247

125

127

21000

39520

37997

2033

4580

5058

1156

381

13

256

57

461

730

173

819

4854

1786

720

431

24

11

120

252

127

130

22152

41626

40058.5

2034

4855

5362

1225

410

13

266

59

479

759

185

877

5060

1893

772

462

25

11

123

257

130

132

23368

43837

42228

2035

5147

5684

1299

441

14

10

276

62

498

790

198

938

5275

2007

828

495

25

11

125

262

132

135

24656

46178

44526.5

2036

5455

6025

1377

474

15

10

288

64

518

821

211

1004

5499

2127

888

531

26

12

128

268

135

137

26017

48653

46951

2037

10

5783

6386

1460

509

15

11

299

67

539

854

226

1074

5733

2255

952

570

27

12

130

273

138

140

27457

51271

49521.5

2038

11

6130

6769

1547

547

16

11

311

69

560

888

242

1149

5976

2390

1021

611

28

12

133

279

141

143

28977

54026

52225

2039

12

6497

7175

1640

588

16

12

323

72

583

924

259

1230

6230

2533

1096

655

29

13

136

284

143

146

30588

56950

55096.5

2040

13

6887

7606

1738

632

17

12

336

75

606

961

277

1316

6495

2685

1175

703

29

13

138

290

146

149

32290

60034

58128.5

2041

14

7300

8062

1843

680

18

13

350

78

630

999

297

1408

6771

2846

1260

754

30

14

141

296

149

152

34095

63301

61333.5

2042

15

7738

8546

1953

731

19

13

364

81

656

1039

317

1506

7059

3017

1352

809

31

14

144

301

152

155

36002

66756

64732

2043

16

8203

9059

2070

786

19

14

378

84

682

1081

339

1612

7359

3198

1449

867

32

14

147

308

155

158

38019

70395

68309.5

2044

17

8695

9602

2195

845

20

14

393

88

709

1124

363

1725

7672

3390

1555

930

33

15

150

314

158

161

40156

74261

72109

ANNEXURE 3.4
DIVERTED LOCAL TRAFFIC PROJECTION

Diverted Local Traffic Projection at km 90.5


Passenger

Year

Car/Jeep/
Van
Private
Taxi

Tempo
2
Traveller wheelers Auto

Goods

Auto Big Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Car
Bus (Pvt) School BuGoods

LCV (4
Tryres)

LCV (6
Tryres)

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

4axle to
6 axle

7-axle
and
above

Agricultural
Construc
tion/
Machinn
Tractor
ery
Tractor
Trailer

Nonmotorised

Cycle

Cycle
Rick

Toll Exempted

Animal/C Hand
art
Cart

Car/Jeep LCV

Truck

Total
Number

Bus

PCUs

Tollable
PCUs

432

420

339

462

446

361

495

477

387

531

508

412

571

549

442

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

610

582

470

653

622

502

699

664

537

748

709

571

800

754

607

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

10

852

798

644

11

910

850

686

11

973

910

731

11

1038

965

776

12

1108

1027

826

6.00

7.25

7.25

7.25

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

12

1175

1084

872

10

13

1250

1150

924

10

13

1331

1224

981

11

14

1414

1297

1039

11

14

1501

1370

1098

12

14

1598

1455

1167

12

15

1698

1543

1233

13

15

1805

1635

1306

13

16

1921

1734

1384

14

16

2041

1836

1466

14

17

10

2170

1947

1549

10

10

15

17

10

2311

2069

1645

10

10

10

15

18

10

2455

2188

1738

773

11

10

10

16

18

11

2610

2322

1839

1519

831

11

11

11

17

19

11

2778

2465

1952

188

1611

894

12

11

11

18

19

11

2956

2614

2067

199

1707

961

12

12

12

18

20

12

3144

2774

2188

2013

27

30

255

90

Growth
Rate (%)

7.00

7.00

7.00

9.00

5.00

5.00

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

8.00

8.00

5.00

7.00

8.50

8.50

8.50

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2014

29

32

273

98

2015

31

34

292

107

2016

33

37

312

117

2017

35

39

334

127

Growth
Rate (%)

6.75

6.75

6.75

8.50

4.75

4.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

7.75

4.50

6.75

8.00

8.00

8.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2018

37

42

357

138

2019

40

44

381

150

10

2020

43

47

406

162

10

2021

45

51

434

176

10

2022

49

54

463

191

10

Growth
Rate (%)

6.50

6.50

6.50

8.00

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.25

7.25

4.50

6.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

3.00

2023

52

58

493

206

2024

56

61

525

223

2025

59

65

559

241

2026

63

69

596

260

2027

67

74

634

281

Growth
Rate (%)

6.00

6.00

6.00

7.50

4.25

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.00

7.00

4.25

2028

71

78

672

302

2029

75

83

712

325

2030

80

88

755

349

2031

85

93

800

375

2032

90

99

848

403

2033

95

105

899

434

2034

101

111

953

466

2035

107

118

1010

501

2036

113

125

1071

539

2037

120

133

1135

579

2038

127

140

1204

623

2039

135

149

1276

669

10

2040

143

158

1352

719

2041

151

167

1433

2042

161

177

2043

170

2044

180

Diverted Local Traffic Projection at km 130


Passenger

Year

Car/Jeep/
Van
Private
Taxi

Tempo
2
Traveller wheelers Auto

Goods

Auto Big Minibus

Bus
(Govt)

Car
Bus (Pvt) School Bu Goods

LCV (4
Tryres)

LCV (6
Tryres)

2axle
Truck

3axle
Truck

7-axle
4axle to 6 and
above
axle

Agricultural
Construct
ion/
Machinne
Tractor
ry
Trailer
Tractor

Nonmotorised

Cycle

Cycle
Rick

Toll Exempted

Animal/C Hand
art
Cart

Car/Jeep LCV

Truck

Total
Number

Bus

PCUs

Tollable
PCUs

702

742

647

749

788

689

802

841

736

857

897

782

916

954

832

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

976

1012

885

1042

1076

942

1111

1146

1001

1185

1216

1064

1264

1292

1132

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

1345

1370

1202

1432

1453

1275

19

1526

1546

1355

19

1622

1637

1436

20

1726

1736

1524

7.25

7.25

7.25

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

21

1830

1834

1612

21

10

1940

1942

1703

31

22

10

2057

2054

1803

13

32

23

10

2182

2172

1907

14

33

23

10

2313

2294

2015

34

15

35

24

11

2455

2435

2137

36

16

36

25

11

2603

2573

2259

37

17

38

25

11

2762

2723

2391

38

18

39

26

12

2929

2881

2526

84

40

20

41

27

12

3108

3050

2674

11

88

42

21

43

28

12

3297

3227

2830

16

12

91

43

23

44

29

13

3497

3415

2990

632

17

12

95

45

24

46

29

13

3708

3610

3163

1843

680

18

13

99

47

26

48

30

14

3940

3830

3350

621

1953

731

19

13

103

49

28

50

31

14

4181

4055

3547

594

658

2070

786

19

14

107

51

30

53

32

14

4436

4292

3754

630

697

2195

845

20

14

111

53

32

55

33

15

4708

4545

3971

2013

94

104

327

79

32

15

15

13

Growth
Rate (%)

7.00

7.00

7.00

9.00

5.00

5.00

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

4.50

8.00

8.00

5.00

7.00

8.50

8.50

8.50

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2014

101

111

350

86

33

16

16

13

2015

108

119

374

94

35

16

17

14

2016

115

127

401

102

37

17

17

14

2017

123

136

429

112

38

18

18

15

Growth
Rate (%)

6.75

6.75

6.75

8.50

4.75

4.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

7.75

4.50

6.75

8.00

8.00

8.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2.00

2018

131

145

458

122

40

19

19

15

2019

140

155

489

132

41

20

20

16

2020

150

165

522

143

43

20

21

16

2021

160

177

557

155

45

21

21

17

2022

171

189

595

168

47

22

22

17

Growth
Rate (%)

6.50

6.50

6.50

8.00

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.25

7.25

4.50

6.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

3.00

3.00

2023

182

201

634

181

49

23

23

18

2024

194

214

675

196

51

24

24

18

2025

207

228

719

212

53

25

25

2026

220

243

765

229

10

55

26

26

2027

234

259

815

247

10

57

27

10

27

Growth
Rate (%)

6.00

6.00

6.00

7.50

4.25

4.25

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.00

7.00

4.25

6.00

2028

248

275

864

266

10

59

28

11

28

2029

263

291

916

285

11

62

29

11

29

2030

279

308

971

307

11

64

30

12

2031

295

327

1029

330

12

67

32

2032

313

347

1091

355

12

69

33

2033

332

367

1156

381

13

72

2034

352

389

1225

410

13

75

2035

373

413

1299

441

14

10

78

2036

395

438

1377

474

15

10

81

2037

419

464

1460

509

15

11

2038

444

492

1547

547

16

2039

471

521

1640

588

2040

499

552

1738

2041

529

586

2042

561

2043
2044

ANNEXURE 3.5
GENERATED TRAFFIC PROJECTION

Generated Traffic Projection


Passenger
Year

Car/Jeep/
Van Private Taxi

Minibus

Goods

Bus (Govt) Bus (Pvt)

3axle
School Bus Car Goods LCV (1-1) LCV (1-2) Truck

4axle to 6 7-axle and


axle
above

Construction/
Machinnery

Total
Number

PCUs

Tollable
PCUs

442

839

839

2017

103

113

14

20

14

33

11

Growth
Rate (%)

6.75

6.75

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

4.25

7.75

7.75

6.75

8.00

8.00

8.00

2018

110

121

15

21

15

35

12

469

888

888

2019

117

129

15

22

16

38

13

497

939

939

2020

125

137

16

23

18

40

14

526

990

990

2021

134

147

17

24

19

43

15

559

1048

1048

591

1104

1104

2022

143

157

17

25

20

46

16

Growth
Rate (%)

6.50

6.50

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.25

7.25

6.50

7.75

7.75

7.75

2023

152

167

18

26

21

49

17

625

1164

1164

2024

162

178

18

27

23

52

19

661

1228

1228

2025

173

190

19

28

25

56

20

702

1300

1300

2026

184

202

20

29

26

59

22

741

1371

1371

2027

196

215

21

30

10

28

63

23

784

1445

1445

Growth
Rate (%)

6.00

6.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

7.00

7.00

6.00

7.25

7.25

7.25

2028

208

228

22

31

11

30

67

25

828

1523

1523

2029

220

242

23

32

11

32

71

26

872

1600

1600

2030

233

256

24

34

12

34

75

28

920

1684

1684

2031

247

271

25

35

13

37

80

30

971

1774

1774

2032

262

288

26

36

14

39

84

33

1025

1870

1870

2033

278

305

27

38

15

42

89

35

1084

1973

1973

2034

295

323

28

39

16

45

95

38

1145

2082

2082

2035

312

343

29

41

17

48

100

40

1207

2187

2187

2036

331

363

30

43

18

51

106

43

1273

2302

2302

2037

351

385

31

44

20

55

113

46

1345

2427

2427

2038

372

408

32

46

21

59

120

50

1421

2562

2562

2039

394

433

34

48

23

63

127

53

1501

2699

2699

2040

418

459

35

50

24

67

134

57

1583

2840

2840

2041

443

486

36

52

26

72

142

61

1671

2991

2991

2042

470

515

38

54

28

77

151

66

1769

3165

3165

2043

498

546

39

56

30

83

160

70

1868

3334

3334

2044

528

579

41

58

32

88

170

76

1974

3520

3520

ANNEXURE 3.6
PROJECTED TRAFFIC

Projected Traffic - Tunnel

Year

Cars

2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044

4524
3910
4173
4454
4756
5077
5407
5758
6133
6532
6956
7373
7816
8285
8782
9308
9868
10459
11086
11752
12457
13205
13996
14837
15727
16671
17671
18731

Mini
Bus

49
51
53
55
58
60
62
65
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
89
92
96
100
104
108
112
117
122
126
131
137
142

Car
Goods

Buses

354
281
293
305
319
331
344
358
372
387
403
419
436
453
472
490
510
530
552
573
596
621
645
671
698
726
755
785

425
443
462
482
502
524
545
567
589
613
638
664
690
718
746
776
807
840
873
908
944
982
1021
1062
1105
1149
1195
1243

2axle
Truck

LGV

401
370
399
429
463
497
533
572
613
658
705
755
807
864
924
988
1058
1132
1211
1296
1387
1484
1587
1699
1818
1945
2081
2227

2625
2352
2457
2568
2683
2804
2930
3062
3200
3344
3494
3642
3797
3959
4127
4302
4485
4676
4875
5082
5298
5523
5758
6002
6257
6523
6800
7090

3axle
Truck

696
637
681
727
775
828
882
939
1000
1065
1134
1202
1274
1351
1432
1518
1609
1705
1807
1916
2031
2153
2282
2419
2564
2718
2881
3054

MAV

Toll
Total
Exepmted Vehicles PCUs

Others

233
216
234
252
272
294
317
341
368
396
427
458
491
527
565
606
650
697
747
802
860
922
989
1061
1138
1220
1309
1403

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
22
24
25
27
29
31
33
36
39
41
44
48
51
55
59
63
67
72

321
327
334
340
348
354
362
369
376
382
390
398
406
414
423
431
440
448
457
466
476
485
495
504
515
525
535
545

9638
8598
9098
9625
10190
10784
11398
12048
12737
13467
14242
15011
15821
16680
17585
18539
19552
20619
21747
22940
24201
25535
26941
28432
30007
31671
33431
35292

18480
16568
17480
18436
19456
20529
21643
22816
24063
25375
26771
28156
29612
31156
32780
34487
36296
38202
40214
42337
44580
46951
49446
52087
54876
57814
60923
64205

Tollable Tollable
Vehicles PCUS

9317
8271
8764
9285
9842
10430
11036
11679
12361
13085
13852
14613
15415
16266
17162
18108
19112
20171
21290
22474
23725
25050
26446
27928
29492
31146
32896
34747

17743
15816
16713
17655
18658
19716
20811
21969
23200
24497
25875
27242
28678
30204
31808
33496
35286
37173
39165
41267
43487
45837
48308
50929
53692
56609
59693
62952

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