Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6: Definicin y caractersticas de
eventos extremos
Recomendaciones para el
uso de la terminologa
Perspectiva fsica
Caractersticas de EE:
(A) definicin por parmetros climatolgicos
(temperatura, precipitacin => sequa, helada)
(B) definicin por procesos indirectamente relacionados
con parmetros climatolgicos (=> deslizamientos,
huaycos, inundaciones)
Perspectiva fsica
Causas de cambios en EE:
(1) Cambio de variabilidad
(2) Cambio de condiciones en promedio (cambio climtico)
(3) Combinacin de (1) y (2)
Perspectiva fsica
Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos
Perspectiva fsica
Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos
Perspectiva fsica
Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos
IPCC, US-GCRP
Perspectiva fsica
Cambios proyectados
en eventos extremos
US-GCRP, 2009
Perspectiva fsica
Consideraciones de probabilidad/frecuencia de EE
Referencia: Mediciones climatolgicas, monitoreo ambiental
Tiempo de medicin generalmente < 150 aos
=> en regiones con periodos cortos de monitoreo anlisis de EE es un reto!
Perspectiva humana
Caractersticas de EE:
Grado de impacto por condiciones de
vulnerabilidad
Interaccin de cierto nivel de
vulnerabilidad con eventos
climatolgicos, hdro-meteorolgicos
Clima
Parmetros/ndices
por medir
Impacto
Dao/ndices, por ej.:
- agricultura
- salud
- seguridad
Clima
Datos climatolgicos
Impacto
Reportes, inventarios,
memoria de la gente
Helada: definicin
SENAMHI Per:
a) Helada meteorolgica: Ocurrencia de una
temperatura mnima diaria que non supere los
0 C en abrigo meteorolgico (medido a 1.5 m
del suelo)
b) Helada agronmica: En forma mas general se
define la helada agronmica come el descenso
de la temperatura del aire a niveles crticos para
los cultivos sin llegar necesariamente a 0 C
Helada: monitoreo
Sequa: definicin
Diferentes definiciones de sequa: meteorolgica (dficit
precipitacin), hidrolgica (dficit de descarga) o agrcola (con
referencia a los cultivos, dficit de humedad del suelo).
Tambin distintas definiciones en lo que concierne los aspectos
especficos: intensidad y duracin (sequas multi-anuales,
estacionales, a corto plazo, ), frecuencia de reaparicin,
temporada y estacin de aparicin
Por lo tanto, existen diferentes indicadores de sequa
Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation
has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological
imbalances that adversely affect land resource production systems.
Quantitative definitions:
Meteorological drought is usually an expression of precipitations departure from
normal over some period of time. These definitions are usually region-specific, and
presumably based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology.
Operational definitions help people identify the beginning, end, and degree of
severity of a drought. To determine the beginning of drought, operational definitions
specify the degree of departure from the average of precipitation or some other
climatic variable over some time period. This is usually done by comparing the
current situation to the historical average, often based on a 30-year period of record.
The threshold identified as the beginning of a drought (e.g., 75% of average
precipitation over a specified time period) is usually established somewhat
arbitrarily, rather than on the basis of its precise relationship to specific impacts.
Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation has been
significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological imbalances that
adversely affect land resource production systems.
Sequa: definicin
The United Nations Convention to combat desertification (UNCCD):
Drought means the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when
precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing
serious hydrological imbalances that adversely affect land resource
production systems.
Recomended literature
Dracup, J.A.; K.S. Lee; and E.G. Paulson, Jr. 1980. On the Definition of
Droughts. Water Resources Research 16(2):297-302.
Wilhite, D.A.; and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought
phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International 10:111120.
See also
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/Wilhite_WMO_Drou
ght_PWS.pdf
Sequa: definicin
Sequa (drought): ausencia prolongada o dficit apreciable de precipitaciones que puede
contribuir a la desertificacin.
INEI 2009: Anuario de Estadsticas Ambientales 2009.
Sequa (met): Ausencia de precipitaciones pluviales que afecta principalmente a la
agricultura. Los criterios de cantidad de precipitacin y das sin precipitacin, varan al
definir una sequa. Se considera una sequa absoluta, para un lugar o una regin, cuando
en un perodo de 15 das, en ninguno se ha registrado una precipitacin mayor a 1 mm.
Una sequa parcial se define cuando en un perodo de 29 das consecutivos la
precipitacin media diaria no excede 0.5 mm. Se precisa un poco ms cuando se
relaciona la insuficiente cantidad de precipitacin con la
actividad agrcola.
INDECI 2009: Terminologa de Defensa Civil
Sequa
Temporada seca, sin lluvias, o con dficit de lluvias. En general se trata de perodos
prolongados (meses, aos, incluso decenios), que pueden ocurrir en reas continentales
restringidas o a escalas regionales. Excluye Ola de calor aunque una Ola de calor puede
ocurrir durante un periodo de Sequa.
DesInventar 2009: Gua Metodolgica
Sequa: impactos
Agricultural drought:
Soil water deficits
Yield loss
Insect infestation
Plant diseases
Hydrological drought:
Soil water deficits
Reduced groundwater or reservoir levels
Persistently low discharge and/or volume of water in streams and reservoirs lasting
months or years
Land and landscape degradation, desertification, wind erosion, wildfires
Loss of biodiversity
Permanent loss of biological productivity
Loss of wildlife habitat
The Ojos Negros Research Group 2010
(http://threeissues.sdsu.edu/three_issues_droughtfacts0.html )
Sequa: impactos
Socioeconomic drought:
Social conflicts (the demand for water for economic activities far exceeds the supply)
Household water shortage (public safety, health, quality of life, inequities in
distribution)
Agricultural yield loss
Low hydroelectric power production
Income loss
Rising price levels (food, energy)
Population migration