The 1984 NatL Petroleum Council

Study on EOR: An Overview

J.H. Broome, SPE, Texaco Inc.
J.M. Bohannon, SPE, Conoco Inc.
W.C. Stewart, SPE, Conoco Inc.

5p&

/32

37

An overview of what is considered the most extensive EOR study ever accomplished is discussed.
In this s~dy, 86 persons from 34 companies worked over a period of 17 months to develop a document that
indicates the dkection that EOR might take for the next 3 decades, Projected production, based on both
implemented and advanced technology, is presented to shOw tie effect Of chmges in Price Of cmde ~d
minimum rate of return (ROR) requirements. The study indicates that EOR could increase the current domestic
cmde reserves by about 40%. It also indicates that the ultimate recovery and the projected producing rates, of
EOR projects we h@dy sensitive tO ch~ges in cmde oil Prices.

summary.

Introduction
TheNatL Petroleum Council (NPC) is a board of indus-

hy leaders established solely for the purpose of advising,

informing, and making recommendations to the Secretzuy
of Energy on any matter relating to the petroleum industry. In 1976, the NPC developed a study on EOR covering state of the art, future amounts to be produced, and
policy considerations. On March 10, 1983, the Secretary
of Energy requested that tie 1976 stady be updated and
expanded where necesszwy. Therefore, a committee on
EOR and a coordinating subcommittee were established.
The coordinating subcommittee formed four task forces
specializing in chemical, miscible, and tberms3 recnve~
processes and costs and economics.
The restddng study is presented in the following format.
Chap. IBackground of Od Recovery Operations
Chap. 2Developments Affecting EOR Siice 1976
Chap. 3Analysis Considerations and Procedures
Chap. 4Potentinl for EOR
Chap. 5EOR in Perspective to Other Energy Sourcas
Chap. 6Policy Considerations.
The Appendices present important information too detailed to include in the main part of the report.
Appendm ARequest Letter
Appendix BRosters
Appendm CAdditional Economic Considerations
Appendix DChemical Flooding
Appendix EMiscible Floodlng
Appendix FThermaJ Recovery
Appendix GEnvironmental Considerations
Appendix HResearch Progress amd Future
Implications
This paper, which presents an overview of the study,
was presented in conjunction with three companion
papers 1-3that provide ~~yses Ofthe SpeCificprOcesses.
The NPC Study

Chap. lBackground of Oil Recovery Operations. The

API and DOE estimate that a total of about 481x109 .bbl
Copyright 1986 S.ciely.1

Petrdau!n
E.J..ws

Journal of Petroleum Technology,

A.E.st

1986

[76.5 X109 m3] crude liquids have been discovered in

the U.S.4,5 Of this, 130x 109 bbl [20.7x 109 m3] (27%)
have been moduced and 28X 109 bbl r4.5 x 109 m3]
(6%) are e;pected to be produced under &isting technical and economic conditions. This leaves 323 x 109 bbl
[51.4 x 109 m3] (67%) of conventionally unrecoverable
hydrecarbnns as an upper-limit target for EOR techniques.
Current EOR projects are providing 0.5 x106 B/D
[79.5 x 103 m3/d] (6% of the total production of
8.6x106 B/D [1.4x I0 J m3/d].
Chap. 2-Developments
Aftkting EOR Since 1976.
Since 1976, several factors have affected the EOR pro-
grams of mnny companies. The decontrol of oil allowed
the effective price of crude to seek its market vslue, resulting in an increase of as much as 100% inconstant dollars. Additionally, the Tertiary Incentive Program met
with great success snd contributed to the initiation of 423
projects operated by more than 100 companies.
Because of the proviskm that reduces the burden on tertisry recovery, the Windfall Profit Tax stimulated some
projects, primarily those with low initial investments.

Chap. 3Anafysi5 Considerations and Procedures. Developing and Verif9ing a Data Base. A data base was
inhially provided for the study by the DOE to expand this
information to include as many domestic reservoirs with
more than 20x 106 bbl [3.2x 106 m3] origimd oil in
place (OOIP) as possible and to check the accuracy of the
data, questionnaires on 1,300 reservoirs were completed
by 18 different companies.
The resulting data base, supplemented by information
provided by Lewin and Assocs., included 2,500 reservoirs containing approximately 73% of alJ the OOIP in
the U.S. estimated by the most recent (1980) API stateby-state analysis. A size dktribution study of the database,
shown by Fig. 1, indicated that the largest 35% of the
reservoirs (those greater than 50x 106 bbl [7.9x106 m3 ]
OOIP) contained 92% of the OOIP. Therefore, it was
869

, ~oo2%
.

z
CUM. PERCENTAGE
5 1015
30
,

CUM.

Fig.

lResewolr

OF TOTAL RESERVOIRS

PER&NTAG~

size

50

65

80

90

95
i

20 3040
0? TOTAL OOIP

distribution-NPC

data

50(

base.

decided to delete smaller reservoirs from further study,

eliminating 65% of the reservoirs but only 8 % of the
OOIP.
More than two-thirds of all the OOIP in the U.S. is represented in the remaining database. This is illustrated by
Fig. 1, which is a plot of reservoir size vs. cumulative
percentage of total OOIP,
Fig. 2 illustrates by state the fraction of the total OOIP
represented in the NPC data base on the basis of the 1980
API estimate.
Dejfning Reservoir Screeh Criteria. After the datn bnae
was assimilated nnd verified, a set of csrefully selected
screening criteria was established for each EOR process
that allowed each reservoir to be assigned to one or more
processes or to be deleted from further consideration. Tbe
specific criteria developed for each process sre dkcussed
in the companion papers for the individual processes. 1-3
Developing and (?ufib:ating Process Models. It should
bc stressed that the process models are simplified analytical took and ae not detailed simulators. Every mu of
the model received an intensive review to ensure that engineering judgment was included in the formulation of the
results
Derivinz Cost and Economic Factors. The process
model fo; each reservoir was run on the basi; of an

implemented-technolo~ and an advanced-technol&y

case. The implemented-technology case predicts the
recovery tiat will result from technology that is currently proved in either large-scale commercial operations
(primarily thermal), tieldwide tests (primarily miscible),
or pilot tests (primmily chemical).
The advanced-technology case predicts the recoveqf that
might result from technology that in the consensus of the
task force members may develop in the next 30 years.
The advsnced processes we assumed to begin in 1988 for
steam processes and in 1995 for all other processes to allow for development time for the new techniques.
The economics were baaed on a discounted cash flow
analysis for the 30-year time frame of the study. A
constant-dollar analysis was used to eliminate any dktortion resulting from inflation.
The cost data were divided into process-independent
costssuch as drilling, completion, equipment, and normal operating costsand process-dependent costssuch
as chemicil or C02 costs.
The baae case assumes the price. of cmde to remoin at
a nominal $30.00/bbl [$ 189/m3 ] throughout the study
period, a minimum acceptable ROR of 10%, and the application of the implemented technology. To investigate
the sensitivity of EOR to price, additional runs were made
on both the implemented and the advnnced cases, aasuming crude oil rices of $20,$40, and $50/bbl [$26, $252,
and $314/m ?] throughout the study period.
These nominal prices are based on 40API
[0.83-g/cm3] midcontinent crude oil. Corrections were
included for each resemoir to adjust for actual gravity rind,
in some cases, geographical location. Thk resulted in
average crude prices significantly lower than these nominal prices. For example, the $30/bbl [$189/m 3] nominal case had an effective average crude price of $25.45.
For each run at a different nominal oi3 price, various
categories of investments and costs were also assumed to
change in a fixed relatiorrshp to the oil price. The cost
of drilling and completion was assumed to change 4% for
each 10% change in the price of oil from the $30/bbl
[$189/m3] case. The cost of facilities and equipment was
assumed to change by 3%, the operating cost by 2 %, and
the fuel cost by 10%. The basic tax structure was assumed
to be that of a major oiI company with a corporate tax
of 46%. a state tax of 4%, and a severance tax of 8%.
The royalty was assumed to be 12.5%.

&?dApl ESTIMATE(1980)

Fig. 2Oistributim

870

of OOIP:

total

of 460x

109

bbl.

Joumd

,.

of P.tmlam

Technology,

August 1986

LEGEND:
=

THERMAL RECOVERY 45%

(6.5 BILLION BARRELSI

MISCIBLE FLOODING 38%

(5.5 BILLION BARRELS)

CHEMICAL FLOODING (2.5 BILLION BARRELS)

17%

TOTAL ULTIMATE EOR = 14.5 BILLION BARRELS

-,..
. .......
,
.-.-...,.. . . ...-...
---------: ----l-q.
3u,mriate remve~,mp,emen,em-,eG
,gy,
..,!s
=.!!1,,,.
. ..=.

Lkvefoping Projection Methodology. It was decided

that, because more than two-tilrds of the OOIP in the
country was represented in the data base, no exmapolation of results would be made. Although it is realiied that
some reservoirs with leas than 50x 106 bbl [7.9X106
m3 ] will exhbit EOR potential and tiat some reservoirs
with greater than 50x 106 bbl [7.9x 106 m3] were
missed, the large number of reservoirs used makes dre
projections a fair representation of the EOR potential in
the U.S.

Chap. 4-Potential for EOR. It ahotdd be stressed that

the results of thk study are not tn be considered predictions of future EOR ultimates or producing rates. They
ze projections of possible recovery and rates, given the
stated assumptions of price, technology, arrd other condhiona. Irr addition to these conditions, EOR will depend
greatly on what happens to competing energy srmrces, and
no attempt was made to quantifj this.
Wb.lrtle above qualifications in mind, Fig. 3 illustrates
dre projected ultimate recovery from the various processes
for the implemented technology at $30/bbl [$189/m3] and
a minimum acceptable ROR of 10%. The ultimate recovery projected under these condkiorrs is 14.5x 10g bbl
[2.3x log m3]. About 3.5x109 bbl [0.6x 109 m3] of
these reserves ~e currently booked as proven reserves,
indkating that the national reserve base maybe increased
by 11x109 bbl [1.7x109 m3].
Thermal recuvery could contribute about 6.5x109 bbl
[1 X109 m3] (45%) of the 14.5x 10g bbl [2.3x109 m3]
irrcrease in reserves. Miscible recovery processes might
produce 5.5x 109 bbl [0.9x 109 m3] (38%) of EOR
while chemicaf techniques (which include surfacta.ntsand
polymers) might contribute 2.5 x 109 bbl [0.4x 109 m3]
(17%).
Of these totul reserves, 25% is projected to be produced
beyond the 30-year period of this study.
Fig. 4 presents the sensitivity to price of EOR pmceases for both the implemented- and the advancedtechnology cases. These values were calculated with a
rniuinmm ROR of 10% assumed.
For the implementerf-technology case, the ultimate
recovery increases from 14.5 X 10g bbl at $30/bbl
Journal of PetroleurD TdllKIIow,

Awst

1986

Fig. 4Ultimate
recovery
by processadvancedImplemented-technology
cases.

Fig. 5Production
economic

rateimplemented-technology,

and

baa@

case.

871

s
~ 2000

I
~+1#-1

Y-7---7%
----+%<
.-. -1
---.7---

%
. .
~~ ,~~~

i
-4..\,

;:

:~

LEGEND

TOTAL EOR

_l.

~m

,,.,,,,,,,,,.,,,,, CHEM,C*L

,~(J~

,,,,,,5jd.::::l,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,j
~soo

&:_&:::::

25

LEGEND

$50, RBL.
---$40/BBL.

$30(6BL.
,..,,<..,.,$20 B*L,

~
1984

1990

l-

.--,

.,,,,,,,,,,

~~

1995

2000
YEAR

Fig. 6-Sensitivity
of total production
oil priceimplemented-technologycase,

2005

2D1O

rate to nominal

201!

crude

Fig. 5 presents the projected producing rate during the

study period for the implemented-technology
base case.i.e., an oil price of $30/bbl [$189/m3] and a minimum

acceptable ROR of 10%.

Oil production is shown to increase from the current
value of about 600x103 B/D [95.4x103 m3/d] to speak
of about 1.2x 106 B/D [0.2x 106 m3/d] near tie end of
the century. .Tbe curve is also shown to sustain a rate

=00

Fig.

7Productimt

economic

[2.3x 109m3at $189/m3] to17.5x10g bblat$40/bbI

[2.8x 109m3at$2.52/m3 ]andto19x10g
bblat$50/bbl
r3xlo9 m3 at $314/m31. ConverseIv. the ultimate
&werydecr
easesto7.4x109
bbl [1.Z{109 m3] when
the price falls to $20/bbl [$126/m3 ].
Wkh the application of advanced technology, the ultimate recovery isanticipated to be27.5x10g bbl for the
$30/bbl [4.4x109 m3 for the $189/m3] case, 31.9x 109
bbl for the WYbbl [5. 1 x 10g m3 for the $252/m3] case,
and 34X109 bblforthe$50@bl
[5.4x109 m3 for the
$314/m31 case. If the price of oil decreased to $20/bbl
[$126/m3], it was assumed that reseach in EOR would
be greatly reduced or eliminated and therefore, there
would beno advanced-technology case.
The detaifs of the effect of the price of oil on recove~
by the individual processes are discussed in the companion papers. 1-3

3000 LEGENDI
--

+---~--:-~=
,<::::~,::,::l
E
$
1984
1990

......
?995

2000
YEAR

2005

.20io

2075

mteadvanced-technology,

base

case.

greater than l.0x106 B/D 10.2x106m3/d]

oil fora
period ofmorethan 15years. Natu@ly,themmdrecovem makes the meatest contribution tot-he tutal moducti& na the b;ginning of the curve, with the ~reatest
increase resulting from miscible process efforts near the
end of the study period.
Fig. 6 illustrates the sensitivity of the total producing
rate to cmde price in the implemented-technology case.
The pruducing rate at $50/bbl [$314/m3] is increased approximately 50% above @e $30/bbl [$189/m3] case. This
rewdts in pat frum an acceleration of production because
the ultimate recovery is increased only 31%.
A decrease in the price of oil to $20/bbI [$126/m3]
would result in a peal production of less than 800x 106
B/D [127 x106 m3/d], all of ,which would come essentially from projects already initiated.
Fig. 7 indkates that for the advunced-technology case,
the tofal production gradually rises beyond the yew 2005
to a value of more than z x IOGBID [0.3x 106 m3/d] liquids. The contribution from chemical processes is the only
one that is still increasing at the end of the study periud,
the year 2013.
The sensitivity of the tutal production rute to crude price
is shown for the advanced case in Fig. 8. The peak rate
of about 2.8x 106 B/D oil for the $50/bbl [0.4x106

i=

~ 2000

$50/BBL.
,,.,.,,,,,,,...,,! $40, BBL.

$30/BEL,

II:..4 ....-_L_~
~
.
...
=:~,Soo
II
1~~

~.

K-

$2 ,,)00 . ..2:.:--7-:+..+
~al
g:
1!
:8
1
:2 500 ~e~~~~,

1500

:
1000

a
.
~

.
ADVANCED
~ .---,,~pLEMgNT~D

1984

~-

TECHNOLOGY
~~~~~~~~~y

1990 1995 2000 2005 2070 2015

yEAR

500
Fig.

?:84

?.990 ?9S5 2000 2005 20,0

9Comparison

technology

production

of

implemented.

md

rates-advanced-technology

advancedcase.

20,s

YEAR
Fig. 8Sensitivity
of total production rate to nwniml
oil priceadvanced-technology
cases.

872

crude

Journal

of Pmolenm

Technology,

August

1986.

m3 id for the $314/m3 ] case is shown to occur 5 years

before the peak rate of slightly more than 2X 106 B/D
for the $30/bbl [0.3X 106 m3 /d for the $189/m3] rate.
Thk is caused by both at increase in ultimate production
snd an acceleration of production resulting from enhanced
economics.

Fig. 9 compares the implemented technolo~ and the

advanced technoloev for the base case Of $30~b1
[$189/m3] and 10%-minimumROR. Advmtced technology is predicted to increase the producing rate froin
1.2x 106 to more that 2X106 B/D [0.2x 106 to more
than 0.3 x 106 m3 /d], illustrating the incentive for forthei research in the area of EOR.
Chap. 5EOR in Perspective to Other Energy
Sources. Liquid petroleum provided approximately 43%
of. the energy supply for our countrys needs in 1982.6
The remainder ivas supplied primarily by natural gas,
cosf, and nuclear energy.
Fig. 10 shows the relatively small fraction of the total
domestic liquid supply that is anticipated by the study to
be provided by EOR. Although the EOR production
makes at important contribtttion, it is clesrly not the totsl answer to our nations future energy needs.
Chap. 6POlicy Considerations. An extensive irivektigation of the impact of EOR on the environment indicated that there would be little increase in land use over that
required for primary and secondsry projects, but tAetime
of use would be extended. Additionally, it was concluded that dfligent observance by the operators of the cutrent relations
will suftlciently mitigate the effects of
EOR o; the environment.
Of the mmty ways that EOR will benefit society, the
reduction that it will cause in crude imports is perhaps
the most

obvious.

It_will

also increaae

employment

oil

indust~

and

its associated

Comparison of the 1976

With the 1984 Study

r-

>

16 -

<
Q

14

%
Q
2

12

10

TOTAL

,.

.8 8
6 -
g
i4
*
~2

~o~

0
1980

Fia.

10EOR

~ROJECTION
1

-r-l
1985

1990

compared

1995

2000

to total

petroleum

I
2010

2005

liquids.

THERMAL
38%

MISCIBLE

THERMAL
34%

22%

B
THERMAL
45%

MISCIBLE
38%

:HEMICAL

MISCIBLE
38%

CHEMICAL
28%
1976

Fig. 11 compsres the implemented and advsnced cases

of ~e 1984 study with ifte 1976 study. The 1976 study

included advanced technology but did not include al of
the technological considerations of the new study. Considering the long-range nature of these forecasts, the recent study is generslly comparable with the 1976 study.
Fig. 12 depicts the predicted producing cates for the
two studies, illusttsting the slower, more sustsined increase of the 1984 study.

LIQUIDS

industries.

Study

PETROLEUM

with-

The increased production from EOR will slao extend the period
of transition to aketnative energy sources and, at the sane
time, provide addhioml income to the government.
in the

18

CHEMICAL
~7%
1984

1984

IMPLEMENTED

Fig. n-Recovery
studies.

40%

comparisons

for the

ADVANCED

1976

and

198,

Conclusions

1. EOR could increase the current domestic reserves

by approximately 40%, msking a significant contribution
to the nations energy needs.
2. The technical uncertainty of the various processes
varies widely.
3. The tdtiniate recovefy and the projected producing
rates from EOR are highly sensitive to the price of crude
oil.

4. EOR will satisfy an impoftant, but small, portion of

tie totsl energy demand.
Journal

of Petroleum Technology, August 1986

Fig. 12Tot?l

EOR

Production

rate-base

economic

caae.

873

of Crude Oil, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in

the Unfted Srcmv and Cm.da .s of December 31, 19W, API,

4. Resews

Acknowledgments

The work of the 86 persons and the 34 companies and

organizations that contributed to the 1984 NPC Study on
EOR is gratefully acknowledged.
References
Blevins,T,R., and Brifion,M.W.: The NatJ.PetroleumCouncilEOR Study: ThermaJ Processes,>, piper SPE 13242

Wa.shingm
(J.. 1980) 34.
5. Cmde Oil, Namml &s, and Nafural Gas Liquids Reserves, 19S2
Ammal Report, U.S. DOE/EJA (Au~. 19S3).
6, B.sic Pemkun Dar. Book, Petroleum [nduwry Starisric., API,
Wa.shinst.m (Sept. 1983) 3, No. 3.

1. King, J, E.,
Preseuti
ExMbition,

at fhe 1984 SPE Annual Technical

C.mf.r.m,

md

Houston, Sept. 16-19.

874

bbl X 1.589873

Factor

E01

= m3

Rob],F. W., Em.el,

A. S,, and Van Meter, O.E. Jr.: The 1984

NwL Pemoleum Council Estimate of PotemiaJ of EOR for Miscible
Processes,,, JPT (Aug. 1986) 875-82.
3. Doe, P. H., Carey, B. S., and Helmuth, E. S.: WI. NatL Petrolenm CouKiJ EOR Study Chemical Processes, paper SPE 13240
presented at the 1984 #mn.al TechnkaJ Conference and ExAibido.n,
Sept. 16-19.
2.

S1 Metric Conversion

JPT
Original manu%mipt received in the Smlely of Petroleum E.gi.ws
ofice Sept. 16,
W34. Paper accepted for publication April 22, 19s6. Retised rmn.smx
receved May
22. 19S6. PaPe! ISPE 13239) firs: presented at the 19S. SPE Annual Technical Confer...
and Exilbitim held in Ho%., S@. 1G19.

JO.rDaI of Pctrolewn

Technology,

August 1986