Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Mark W. Werman
125.220
Learning objectives
To consider the economys and business cycles impacts on
interest rates
To analyse the business cycle and its impacts
To learn how to monitor and to use basic business indicators as a
guide to financial decision making
To be familiar with some common methods of forecasting interest
rates
To learn the major financial risks faced by financial institutions and
the management techniques used to deal with these risks, in
particular interest rate risk and duration
Introduction
Interest rates change:
Central banks control inflation using open market operations to
control inflation
Increase cash rate to slow economy down
Lower cash rate to stimulate the economy
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Introduction
Why must interest rate risk be managed?
Interest rate changes represent:
Change in the cost of borrowing
Return on investment
Affect the value of financial assets and liabilities
Origins
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Origins
1980s Savings and Loan Crisis in the US
Origins
L/T volatility of cash S/T interest rates since their use as
sole instrument of monetary policy in many countries.
As well, longer-term interest rates have become more
volatile over S/T horizons due to impact of deregulation.
removals of ceilings on interest rates more sensitive
to changes
marketing of govt. securities by tender increased
sensitivity to change
L/T interest rates are related to S/T rates & reliance of
monetary policy on S/T rates has added to long-run
volatility
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Origins
Period of deregulation coincided with & was encouraged
by rapid developments in technology & innovation in
products that FIs offer.
All these changes exposed FIs to risks that need
managing.
FI managers must devote considerable time & resources
to managing the various risks
E.g. A bank has a asset and liability management
committee (ALCO) i.e. risk management committee for this
purpose
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Consequence
Majority of business are exposed to interest rate
risks therefore it must be managed
Try to forecast future interest rate changes but
there is still uncertainty
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Risk
Risk is defined as the chance that actual outcome will
differ from expected outcome.
It equals uncertainty (usually of a loss).
Risk is assumed to arise out of variability
Example:
if an assets return has no variability, it has no risk.
So the security T bill is considered to have no risk
So used as a proxy for a risk-free asset
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Example
Example
: Consider an FI that issues 1-yr maturity liabilities (deposits) to
provide funds for their assets (term loans) with 2-yr maturity (i.e.
maturity of assets longer than maturity of liabilities
Liabilities
Assets
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Example
Cost of funds (liabilities) is 9% pa & return on assets is 10% over 1
year FI can lock in profit spread of 1% by borrowing S/T(1 yr.) &
lending long-term (2 yr).
Uncertainty for year 2 if interest rates stay the same, FI can
refinance its liabilities at 9% & lock in profit of 1%.
If interest rates & FI can only borrow new 1 yr liabilities at 11%,
then spread is negative (-1%).
Whenever FI holds longer term assets relative to liabilities, it
potentially exposes itself to refinancing risk
- risk that cost of re-borrowing funds is more than returns earned on
asset investment.
Classic example: US Savings & Loans banks in 1980s loaned
money at 8.5% and borrowing costs over 15%
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Example
Example:
Or, suppose FI issues securities (borrows funds) at 9% pa for 2 yrs
& invested the funds in assets that yield 10% for 1 yr. (has 1-yr
loans) i.e. maturity of assets smaller than maturity of liabilities.
Assets
Liabilities
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Example
FI still locks in one-year profit of 1%. At the end of first
year, asset matures & funds have to be reinvested. If
interest rates so that return on assets is 8%, then FI
faces a loss in second year of 1%.
FI is exposed to reinvestment risk - the risk that the
returns on the funds to be reinvested will fall below the
cost of the funds.
Recent example
: banks operating in Euromarkets (overseas
markets) that borrowed fixed-rate while investing in
floating-rate loans
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Example
Market risk Example of debt security: Pricing of fixedinterest security e.g. 2 yr bond coupon 8.0% p.a.,par
value $1,000 with semi-annual interest payments,
current market rates 8%
T
price
t 1
price
Ct
1 r
40
1.04
Fv
1 r
40
1.04
40
1.04
40 1, 000
1.04
1, 000
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Change in YTM
If the firm is seen as more risky i.e. if market expects
10% or comparable current market instruments are no
offering 10%...
40
40
40
1, 040
Then
price
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27
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29
30
10
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32
33
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35
36
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price
Fv
1 rt
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Price
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373.775
$488 261.66
Note: cost of borrowing increased by $294.09
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1 1 i n
n
k
price pmt
Fv 1 i 1 i
i
Where:
I = current yield
n= number of period that cash flows occur
Pmt periodic fixed coupon payment
Fv face value
k= fraction of the elapsed interest period
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Example
A funds manager is holding a corporate bond in an investment
portfolio, The bond has a face value of $1,000,000 and pays 10%
per annum half-yearly coupon and matures on December 31, 2018.
Assume today is 20 May 2013 and the current yield on similar
investments is 12% per annum. What is the value of the bond?
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44
45
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= $75 million
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14.6 Duration
Duration is another tool for the measurement and
management of interest rate risk exposures
It is a measure in years and considers the timing and
present values of cash flows associated with a
financial asset or liability
Duration is calculated as the weighted average time
over which cash flows occur, where weights are the
relative present values of the cash flows
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Duration
It is a measurement of how long, in years, it
takes for the price of a bond to be repaid by its
internal cash flows.
Important measure for investors;
Bonds with higher durations carry more risk and have
high volatility than bonds with lower risk
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14.6 Duration
The duration calculations in Table 14.4 can also be
achieved using Equation 14.5
N Ct (t )
t 1(1 i )t
C
N
t
t 1(1 i )t
where
C dollar value of cash flows at time t
t
t the number of periods until the cash flow is due
i current market yield expressedas a decimal
N number of cash flows
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14.6 Duration
Duration: $1,000 bond, 9.00%pa, fixed annual coupon, 3 yrs
to maturity current yield 10%
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(1 0.10)
0.012527
1.252 7%
therefore
price $975.12 x 0.012527
$12.22
i.e. the bond w ill fall by $12.22 from $975.12 to $962.90
14.6 Duration
Duration: $1,000 Bond, 11.00%pa fixed annual coupon, 4 yrs to maturity,
current yield 12% pa
Year (t)
Cash flows $
PVIF @ 12%
Present
value PVCF
$110.00
0.8929
98.22
98.22
Weighted cf
T*PVCF
$110.00
0.7972
87.69
175.38
$110.00
0.7118
78.30
234.90
$1,110.00
0.6355
705.41
2,821.64
969.62
3,330.14
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Duration
The approximate change in the four year bond is: four
year bond:
% price
0.0050
[3.4345]
(1 0.10)
0.015333
1.5333%
therefore
price $969.62 x 0.015333
$14.87
i.e. the bond will fall by $14.87 from $969.62 to $954.75
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14.6 Duration
Duration can also be used to ascertain the dollar impact
of a change in interest rates on the value of a financial
asset or security
The change in value will be proportional to the
duration, but in the opposite direction
r
(1 r )
% price duration
where
r is the current yield, expressed as a decimal,
before the interest rate changes,or is forecast to change
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14.6 Duration
Duration can also be applied to a portfolio of assets and
a portfolio of liabilities
Duration of a portfolio is the weighted duration of
each asset and liability in a portfolio
r
(1 r )
where
DA duration of assetportfolio
DL duration of liability portfolio
k leverage, being % of assets funded by liabilities
r current yield, expressedas a decimal,before an interest rate change
A dollar value of assetportfolio
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14.6 Duration
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r
%
inequity
DA DL k A
1 r
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Duration
r
%
inequity
DA DL k A
1 r
Where:
DA = duration of asset portfolio
DL = duration of liability portfolio
k = leverage being the proportion of assets funded by liabilities
r = current yield
A dollar value of the portfolio
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DA 4.690years
DL 2.520 years
k $35mil / $50mil 0.70
r 0.08
changein
r 0.01
A $50
mil
L $35
mil
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0.01
%
in
asset portfolio 4.6900
0.043426 4.3426%
1 0.08
Therefore :
in
asset portfolio $50, 000, 000* 0.043426
$2,171, 296.30
value
of
assets $47,828, 703.70
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0.01
%
inliability
portfolio 2.5200
0.023333 2.3333%
1 0.08
Therefore :
in
asset portfolio $35, 000, 000* 0.023333
$816, 666.67
value
of
assets $34,183,333.33
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1 0.08
0.01
2.9260*$50, 000, 000
$1,354, 629.63
(1 0.08)
Therefore :
value
of
equity $13, 645,370.37 from
$15, 000, 000
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$13,645,370.37
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14.6 Duration
Change in the value of equity = change in the value of asset
portfolio - change in the value of the liability portfolio
Limitations of duration as a measure of interest rate risk
Unrealistically assumes changes in interest rates occur along the
entire maturity spectrum; i.e. parallel shift in yield curve
Assumes yield curve is flat; i.e. yields do not vary over time
Duration is a static measure at a point in time, requiring regular
recalculation to incorporate changes in cash flow, yield and
maturity characteristics of assets and liabilities
Assumes linear relationship between interest rate changes and
price, whereas pricing of fixed-interest securities exhibits
convexity
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Duration
Measure of interest rate risk
Comparative measure of risk securities that have
different yields, cash-flow structures and terms of
maturity
It is the weighted average over time over which cash
flows occur, where the weights are relative present value
of cash flows
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Duration
Duration calculation:
Identify periodic cash flows
Calculate the present value of those cash flows based
upon current market yields
Multiple by the relevant time period (t) to obtain the
weighted cash flows
Divide the total of the weighted cash flows by the
present value of the security
= duration
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Duration
Comparing:
Asset with the lowest duration has the lowest level of interest
rate risk
r
% price duration
1 r
1 r
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14.9 Summary
Interest rate risk is the sensitivity of the value of balancesheet assets and liabilities and cash flow to movements
in interest rates
Interest rate risk exists in the form of reinvestment risk
and price risk
A firm must establish an effective interest rate exposure
management system, including forecasting the future
balance-sheet structure and the related interest rate
environment
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14.9 Summary
ARBL is a basic principle of interest rate risk
management
A range of internal and external interest rate risk
management techniques exist
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