CHAPTER TWO

The Intelligence Cycle Process

CHAPTER TWO
The Intelligence Cycle Process
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Introduction

The Intelligence cycle is a procedural framework

for the development of mission-focused intelligence
support. It is not an end in itself, nor should it be
viewed as a rigid set of procedures that must be
carried out in an identical manner on all occasions.
The commander and the intelligence officer must
consider each intelligence requirements individually
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and apply the intelligence cycle in a manner that

develops the required intelligence in the most
effective way.1
Another important aspect of the intelligence cycle
is that it is intentionally designed as a circle, because
the cycle is continuous. Once the mission has been
assigned, planning and direction are handled by the
organizations leaders. Data is collected, processed
and delivered to an analysis team for review who
publish the data to the required parties. The results of
the intelligence analysis drive new intelligence
requirements which leads the leadership to task the
collection team to begin gathering data, and the
process continues.
In addition to being continuous loop, there should
also be feedback from different groups within the
organization throughout the process. A well-run
intelligence organization does not rely on leadership
to facilitate communication between the various
teams. For intelligence teams to operate effectively,
there has to be open communication and information
sharing between the teams teams that are working
on the same mission as well as teams that have a
different mission.
The intelligence cycle starts, ends, and starts
again with planning and direction.2
1 (Corps, 2007)
2 (Liska, 2015)
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Chapter Objectives
At the end of this chapter, the reader is expected to
learn the intelligence cycle process.
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1. Planning and Direction

This is the management of the entire effort, from
identifying the need for data to delivering an
intelligence product to a consumer. It is the
beginning and the end of the cycle, the beginning
because it involves drawing up specific collection
requirements and the end because finished
intelligence, which supports policy decision,
generates new requirements.3
The team uses the mission and the direction
from the consumers of the intelligence to produce
intelligence requirements that get passed on the
collection team (Liska, 2012).The overall task is
also defined, and initial plans are made to drive
further activities, often including the allocation of
resources, derivation of timelines, and identification

3 (Avery, Byram, Davis, Michelson, & Starrett,

2015)
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of critical aspects of intelligence that would

necessitate immediate reporting.4

2. Collection
This step entails the acquisition of information
and the provision of this information to processing
or production elements. Members of this team are
responsible for devising systems that meet the
collection needs of the planning and direction
teams. There are six different areas of intelligence
collection:
1) Signals Intelligence (SIGINT). These are data
collected, usually through surreptitious means,
from electronic systems.
2) Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). These are
information collected from publicly available
resources, such as from the internet,
newspapers, and radio.
3) Human-Sourced
Intelligence
(HUMINT).
These are data and information collected from
individuals or group of people, whether wittingly
or unwittingly.
4) Imagery Intelligence (IMINT). These are data
collected via images. It may be a photographs,
or radar screen, or some other form of
representation.

4 (Crump, 2015)
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5) Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT). These are

information collected and gathered from satellite,
drones, and other sources that track securityrelated activity around the planet and derive
intelligence from those movements. It is often
closely associated with IMINT.
6) Measurement and Signature Intelligence
(MASINT). These are intelligence information
derived from sources that do not the category of
SIGINT or IMINT, such as radio frequencies.
At this point, no intelligence has been created.
Rather, what has been collected are raw
information. The sole responsibility of the collection
team is to fulfil the intelligence requirements by
gathering as much data as possible and throwing
that data for Collation, broadly known as
processing & exploitation. (Liska, 2012)

3. Collation
Broadly known as Processing & Exploitation
stage, this is the process of turning the raw bits
and pieces derived from the various collection
system into usable intelligence.5
This is a step in the processing phase of the
intelligence cycle in which the grouping together of
related items of information provides a records of
events and facilitates further processing.6

5 (Phythian, 2013)
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In short, collation is the bringing and grouping

together of all gathered information.
4. Evaluation. The evaluation of information, also
known as appraisal, deals with the analysis of
piece of information in terms of credibility, reliability,
pertinency, accuracy, and the use of an item of
information, an intelligence product, or the
performance of an intelligence system. The
evaluation of information is accomplished at fourth
stage within the intelligence cycle with
progressively different contexts.
The evaluation or appraisal of items of
information is indicated by a conventional letternumber system, shown below:
Reliability of the Source Accuracy of Information
A Completely Reliable
B usually Reliable
C Fairly Reliable
D Not Usually Reliable
E Unreliable

1 Confirmed by other
Reliable sources
2 Probably True
3 Possibly True
4 Doubtful
5 Improbable

The evaluation simultaneously concerns with

both the credibility of the information itself a
process involving a check against information
already in hand and an educated guess as to the
accuracy of the new information and the reliability
of the source. The two aspects cannot be totally
separated from each other. The authoritativeness
6
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of the source, which may not necessarily coincide

with its reliability, can never be ignored, though it is
sometimes overrated in the light of the credibility of
the information, something that has to do with the
expectations of the people involved in the
evaluation process. People, however, including
intelligence analysts, tend to believe what they
suspect or expect to be true.
It must be emphasized that both evaluations
should be entirely independent of each other, and
they are indicated in accordance with the system
shown above. Thus, information judged to be
probably true received from a source to usually
reliable is designated B2.7
5. Analysis. This important phase of the intelligence
process is dependent on well-trained intelligence
analysts. Analysis is not simply reorganizing data
and information into a new format. The intelligence
analysts responsibility is to fully describe and
provide as much as usable and explanatory
assessments are based on the data and
information captured by the collection disciplines
and are refined by research methodologies used by
the intelligence analysts. If the analysis of the data
can reach beyond the descriptive and explanatory
levels to a synthesis, which then results in an
estimation, this will be of value and may be

7 (Gonzalez, 2001)
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produced as an intelligence report or part of an

intelligence product.
The purpose of intelligence analysis is to reveal
to the ultimate policy-makers the underlying
significance of selected target information.
Intelligence analysis involves estimating the
likelihood of one possible outcome given the
numerous possibilities that exist. Therefore,
intelligence analysis involves forecasting and
requires the analyst to provide a statement as to
the degree of confidence in a certain set of
judgments, which are based on certain set of
explicit facts or assumptions.
The Intelligence analyst will deal with facts,
findings, and the forecasts in preparing intelligence
report.

Facts: Verified information related to an

intelligence issue.
Findings: Expert knowledge based on
organized information that indicates, for
example, what is increasing, decreasing,
changing, or taking on a pattern.
Forecasts:
Judgments
(interpretations,
predictions) based on facts and findings and
defended by sound and clear argumentation.

The intelligence analyst has the responsibility of

reviewing the collected information and going
beyond the descriptive and explanatory levels of
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analysis and to synthesize the facts by verification

of information. The findings must be presented to
the policymaker in such a fashion that the analyst
forecast reduces the uncertainty that confronts
decision makers and policymakers.
6. Dissemination. The final step of the intelligence
cycle is dissemination of the finished product to
consumers. It involves the distribution of the
finished intelligence to the consumers the
policymakers and operators whose need triggered
the intelligence process. This step plays an
important role in the sharing of information.
The heart of information sharing is
dissemination of information. Policies need to be
established for the types of information that will be
disseminated and to whom. Critical to appropriate
dissemination of information is understanding
which persons have the right to know and the
need to know the information, both within the
agency and externally. In some cases, there may
need to be multiple versions of one product
(COPS, 2008). As these dissemination efforts lead
to a new requirements for information, the
intelligence cycle begins again.8

7. Reevaluation
Reevaluation is the task of examining
intelligence
8 (Tuzuner, 2007)
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products to determine their effectiveness. Part of

this assessment comes from the consumers of
intelligence; that is, the managers, investigators,
and officers to whom the intelligence is directed.
One way to reevaluate intelligence is to include
a
feedback form with each product that is
disseminated. To make sure the comments are
valuable, the feedback form should ask specific
questions relating to the usefulness of the
intelligence.9
Re-evaluation involves a continual review of the
whole intelligence cycle to identify ways in which
any stage of the cycle can be improved. To be of
most value, re-evaluation should occur throughout
the process, not merely be left to the last stage of
the cycle. (UNODC, 2010)

9 (Peterson, 2005)
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Works Cited
Avery, T., Byram, D., Davis, A., Michelson, R., &
Starrett, P. (2015). Planning and Direction. In
T. Avery, D. Byram, A. Davis, R. Michelson, &
P. Starrett, Homeland Security Principles,
Planning & Procedures. San Clemente, CA:
Lawtech Publishing Group.
Corps, U. M. (2007). CI Planning and Intelligence
Cycle. In U. M. Corps, Counterintelligence
(pp. 6-6). New York: Cosimo, Inc.
Crump, J. (2015). Intelligence Cycle. In J. Crump,
Corporate Security Intelligence and Strategic
Decision Making (p. 95). Boca Raton, FL: CRC
Press.
Gonzalez, S. (2001). The Evaluation of Information.
In S. Gonzalez, The Secret Fidel Castro:
Deconstructing the Symbol
(p. 361).
InteliNet/InteliBooks.
Liska, A. (2015). Defining Intelligence. In A. Liska,
Building an Intelligence-Led Security
Program (pp. 22-23). Waltham, MA:
Syngress.
Lowe, D., Turk, A. T., & Das, D. K. (2013). The Key
Role of Intelligence and the Problem of
Different Interpretations and Functions. In D.
Lowe, A. T. Turk, & D. K. Das, Examining
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Political Violence (pp. 93-95). Boca Raton, FL:
CRC Press.
Phythian, M. (2013). Collation. In M. Phythian,
Understanding the Intelligence Cycle. New
York: Routledge.
Tuzuner, M. (2007). Intelligence and Dissemination
of Information. In M. Tuzuner, Intelligence
Cooperation Practices in the 21st Century:
Towards a Culture of Sharing (p. 52).
Amsterdam: IOS Press.

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