Spatial Epidemiology Methods in the

Study of Vector-Borne Diseases

Jerome E. Freier

USDA, APHIS, Veterinary Services

Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health
Fort Collins, Colorado

Topics
Vector and vector-borne disease considerations
Spatial epidemiology introduction
Spatial analysis methods for population/disease studies
Remote sensing and habitat modeling
Training in spatial epidemiology

1. Vector and Vector-Borne

Disease Considerations

Tetrad Model for Vector-borne Diseases

Developing a model of any vector-borne disease is complex
due to:
Number of necessary components
their variability
their spatio-temporal relationships.

Vector-borne diseases of importance to animals

Domestic
Disease
Anaplasmosis

Bluetongue (endemic serotypes)

Eastern equine encephalomyelitis
Equine infectious anemia
Lyme disease
Q fever
St. Louis encephalitis
Tularemia
Western equine encephalomyelitis
West Nile

Arthropod vector
Ticks (biological) and
biting flies (mechanical)
Culicoides (biting midges)
Mosquitoes
Biting flies (mechanical)
Ticks
Ticks and other arthropods
Mosquitoes
Tabanid flies and ticks
Mosquitoes
Mosquitoes

Vector-borne diseases of importance to animals

Exotic
Disease

African horse sickness

African swine fever
Akabane disease
Babesiosis
Bluetongue (exotic serotypes)
Bovine ephemeral fever
East Coast fever
Epizootic lymphangitis
Equine encephalosis
Getah
Heartwater
Japanese encephalitis

Arthropod vector

Culicoides (biting midges)

Soft ticks
Culicoides (biting midges)
Ticks
Culicoides (biting midges)
Culicoides and mosquitoes
Ticks
Flies (mechanical)
Culicoides (biting midges)
Mosquitoes
Ticks
Mosquitoes

Vector-borne diseases of importance to animals

Exotic

Disease

Louping-ill
Lumpy skin disease
Nairobi sheep disease
Rift Valley fever
Screwworm myiasis
Sheep and goat pox
Tropical myiasis
African animal trypanosomiasis
Venezuelan equine encephalitis
Vesicular stomatitis
Wesselsbron disease

Arthropod vector

Ticks
Mosquitoes and biting flies
(mechanical)
Ticks
Mosquitoes (biological)
Biting flies (mechanical)
Calliphorid flies
Mosquitoes and biting flies
(mechanical)
Calliphorid flies
Glossinid flies (biological)
Tabanid flies (mechanical)
Mosquitoes
Sand flies, black flies, and
Culicoides
Mosquitoes

Factors to Consider in the Emergence of VBD

Microbial adaptation and change

Human demographics and behavior

Expanded animal host range

Climate and weather
Changing ecosystems
Economic development and land use

Technology and industry

International travel and commerce
Breakdown of animal health protection measures
Poverty and social inequality
War and famine

Lack of political will

Intent to harm

Conditions Leading to the Resurgence and Emergence of

VBD Institute of Medicine, 2007
Population growth and unplanned urbanization
Poverty, social inequalities, and the emergence of the throw-away
society

Globalization and tracking of humans, pathogens, vectors, and genes

Erosion of public health infrastructure, including human resource
capacity in medical entomology and vector biology

Lack of new targets and approaches to control vectors and vectorborne diseases

Loss of pesticides for real and perceived environmental issues,

development of resistance in vectors, and economic disincentives to
new pesticide and formulation development

Lack of robust models and information systems to predict, prevent,

and control vector-born diseases.

Knowledge Gaps for Vector-Borne Disease

Need to fill knowledge gaps to

target specific surveillance and control efforts

minimize surveillance costs over large areas
forecast risk and anticipate range expansion for VBD
develop containment and exclusion strategies for VBD

Knowledge gaps in basic biological information

Quantitative data on disease agent cycles in all hosts
Measurement of disease agent transmission potential by known and
potential vectors.
Occurrence, distribution, and abundance of competent disease agent
vectors.
Mechanisms of host infection
Mechanisms of pathogenesis
Spatio-temporal distributions of vectors and environmental conditions in
determining conditions or circumstances for disease emergence.

2. Spatial Epidemiology

Spatial Epidemiology
Definition: The discipline in epidemiology concerned with
describing and understanding spatial variation in disease risk,
particularly at the small area level.

Examples of Activities
Disease mapping
Geographical correlation studies
Assessment of spatial and environmental risk factors
Cluster detection and evaluation
Predictive spatial modeling
Spatial data applications development, testing, and consulting

3. Spatial analysis methods for

population, vector, and
infectious disease studies

Analysis of Population Distributions

Describe the how a population is distributed in space

Space occupied
Centers of the population
Population directions
Population density

Describing Population Distributions

Central Tendency Measures for distributions
Mean center
#

Weighted mean center

# #
#
#
#

#
#
#

Median center

#
#
#
#

#
#

Central feature
Standard distance

Standard deviational ellipse

Ohio

Case site

Mean Center
Population of Test-Positive Animals

Mean Center (unweighted)

Defined: The average x-coordinate

and average y-coordinate for all
features in a study area

N
Study Area

Mean Center
Tracking Disease Progression in Animal Populations

Week 7
Week 6
Week 5

Week 4
Week 3

Week 2

Week 1

N
Study Area

Central Feature
Population of Test-Positive Animals

Central Feature (unweighted)

Defined: The feature having the

shortest total distance to all other
features in a study area

N
Study Area

Standard Distance
Defined: A statistic that measures the extent to which the
distances between the mean center and features vary from
the average distance
Points vary more than
the standard distance
from the mean
Points vary less than the
standard distance from
the mean

A measure of compactness of points

around the mean

Standard Distance = 291,883 meters

Standard Deviational Ellipse

Defined: A measure of the standard deviation of features
from the mean center separately for the x-coordinates and
the y-coordinates

Shown for one standard deviation

First Law of Geography

Everything is related to everything else,

but near things are more related than
distant things.
- W. R. Tobler, 1970

Principle of Spatial Causality

Something at a given location directly
influences the characteristics of
nearby locations

Estimating Spatial Autocorrelation by Calculating

Morans I
Morans I is an index that assesses feature similarity in location and

attribute value and evaluates whether a pattern is clustered, dispersed,

or random.

The Morans I spatial statistics tool calculates Morans I Index value, a

Z score, and a p-value estimating the significance of the index.

Morans I Index values typically range from +1.0 (clustering) to -1.0

(dispersion), but more extreme values are possible.

Cluster Analysis with the Nearest Neighbor

Distance Method
The

The Average Nearest Neighbor Distance

This method measures the distance between each feature (or feature centroid)
and its nearest neighbor feature (or centroid). All nearest neighbor distances
are averaged. If the distance is less than the average for a hypothetical random
distribution, the distribution of the features are considered clustered. If the
average distance is greater than a hypothetical random distribution, then the
features are considered dispersed.

High/Low Cluster Analysis with the Getis-Ord

General G Statistic
Dairies Tick Investigations

Considers number of cows on

each farm

Is spatial clustering
occurring relative to an
attribute?

Multi-Distance Spatial Analysis Using

Ripleys K Function
Multi-Distance Spatial Cluster Analysis

Using Ripleys K Function determines whether a feature

class is clustered at multiple different distances.

Summarizes spatial dependence over a range of distances.

Results are presented both as a table and a graphic.

Spatial dependency
declines at 125 meters
and ends at 240 meters

Cluster/Outlier Analysis using Anselins Local

Morans I
Local Morans I

This method identifies clusters of features with values similar

in magnitude, in addition to identifying outliers.

This tool calculates a Local Morans I value, a Z score, a pvalue, and a code representing the cluster type for each feature.

The Z score and p-value represent statistical significance of the

computed index value.

Cluster/Outlier Analysis using Anselins Local

Morans I
Local Morans I Z-score

Hot Spot Analysis of Point Data using the

Getis-Ord G* Statistic

Gi Z-score

Interpolation by Mathematical Methods

Taking known values at points and predicting the value at
other points

Output is a surface of predicted values

Assumes that the points are spatially correlated
Number and distribution of points affect output

Search radius, and thus sample size, can be selected

Can set barriers in the interpolated surface, e.g., mountain
range

Interpolation by Mathematical Methods

Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW)
Small Area

Sample Points

Large Area

Sample Points

Interpolated
Surface

Interpolation by Statistical Methods

Semivariogram Modeling

Interpolation by Statistical Methods

Kriging

Indicator Kriging
Kriging for Binary Data
American Dog Tick
Collection Reports

American Dog Tick Records

Rocky Mountain Wood Tick Records

Indicator Kriging
Kriging for Binary Data
American Dog Tick
Error Distribution