Year: 2012
Asif Jalal
2012MSMED24
Supervisor
Prof. Dr. Nasir Hayat
Master of Science in
Internal Examiner
External Examiner
Chairman
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Dean
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
In the Name of ALLAH, the Most Gracious and the Most Merciful.
Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to express my gratitude, praise and acknowledgement to Almighty ALLAH,
who is the only Creator and Owner of the universe, I am nothing merely the kindness of ALLAH.
Through, His kindness of My Lord, I am able to achieve my all goals in my life.
Secondly, I would like to thanks my dedicated supervisor Professor Dr. Nasir Hayat. His
motivation, direction and guidance really helped me to achieve my ultimate task. I shall be very
thankful to him for this act of kindness.
And, I would not restrain myself to express acknowledgement and honest appreciation to Mr.
Nadeem Faisal Deputy Director PMD (CPDC Karachi) Pakistan for providing me precious
and confidential department data and technical help in this research work.
Lastly, I would yield this opportunity to thank respected Chairman and Dean of the faculty along
with all Post Graduate Research Committee and faculty members for their insightful comments
and observations.
Abstract
Large scale industrial growth and depleted hydro power sources in the country urges the
researchers to transcend the focus towards the renewable energy sources because they are clean,
abundant and environment friendly as compared to orthodox energy sources. Among the
renewable energy sources, the wind energy is most rapidly growing than others. The key objective
of this paper is to study and investigate the wind characteristics and wind potential at the site of
Turbat. For this purpose, the measured 3hourly time series data was taken from the Pakistan
Meteorological department (CPDC, Karachi) for the period of 21 months (Jan 2012 Sep13). The
obtained data was statistically evaluated with the help of Weibull and Rayleigh functions. The
average wind speed is more than 4 m/s for every month. The average values of most probable wind
speed and wind speed carrying maximum energies are 3.83 m/s and 7.732 m/s respectively. The
overall variation in the values of standard deviation is from 1.699 to 3.306. The values of Weibull
shape parameter are in the range of 1.508 to 3.010. Similarly, the range of Scale parameter is from
4.674 m/s to 7.429 m/s. The monthly mean value of wind power and energy densities of the
selected site are 140.145 W/m2 and 101.775 kWh/m2 respectively. The mean power potential of
the site is then compared with the power calculated through Weibull and Rayleigh functions. It
was exposed that the Weibull distribution describe the actual data better than the Rayleigh
function. This statement was further enriched by the assessment of performance of these two
distribution with the RMSE, 2, R2 tests.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements  5
Abstract  6
Chapter # 1 12
INTRODUCTION:  12
Chapter # 2 16
LITERATURE REVIEW  16
Chapter # 3 19
BASIC THEORY IN WIND ENERGY  19
3.1 Introduction of Wind energy  19
3.2 Brief history of Wind energy  20
3.3 Wind Resource Assessment 20
3.4 Extrapolation of wind speed at different height  22
3.5 Presentation of Data  22
3.5.1 Data collection  22
3.5.2 Organization of Data 22
3.5.3 Tabulation of data  23
3.5.4 Graphical representation  23
3.6 Measure of central tendency of the data  23
3.6.1 Mean  23
3.6.2 Median  24
3.6.3 Mode  24
3.7 Measure of Dispersion  24
3.7.1 Range  24
3.7.2 Mean deviation  24
3.7.3 Standard deviation  25
3.8 Wind data parameter estimation  25
Chapter # 4 27
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 27
4.1 Site description and data collection  27
4.2 Statistical analysis of the data  28
4.3 Frequency distribution Table  30
4.4 Statistical Distributions  30
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Total installed capacity of the world wind energy ever since 1997 to 2014 ....... 13
Figure 1.2: Wind map of Pakistan showing wind potential of all provinces [5] ................... 15
Figure 4.1: Location of Turbat in Balochistan, Pakistan ........................................................ 28
Figure 4.2: Swept area of the blade of wind turbine ............................................................... 38
Figure 5.1: Average wind speed per month for year 201213 ................................................. 41
Figure 5.2: Monthly values of standard deviation ................................................................... 42
Figure 5.3: Monthly values of Coefficient of Variation for year 201213 .............................. 44
Figure 5.4: Monthly values of shape parameter for year 201213 ......................................... 46
Figure 5.5: Monthly variation in the values of scale parameter for year 201213 ................ 46
Figure 5.6: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Feb 2012 .. 49
Figure 5.7: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jun 2012 .. 50
Figure 5.8: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Sep 2012 .. 50
Figure 5.9: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Nov 2012 . 51
Figure 5.10: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jan 2013 51
Figure 5.11: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jun 2013 52
Figure 5.12: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Aug 2013 53
Figure 5.13: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Sep 2013 53
Figure 5.14: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 2012 ......... 54
Figure 5.15: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 2013 ......... 55
Figure 5.16: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 201213 .... 56
Figure 5.17: Monthly values of R2 for Weibull and Rayleigh distribution, year 2012 ......... 57
Figure 5.18: Monthly values of R2 for Weibull and Rayleigh distribution, year 2013 ......... 58
Figure 5.19: Average monthly wind power density of the Turbat site .................................. 61
Figure 5.20: Average monthly wind power density for Turbat site ....................................... 61
Figure 5.21: Monthly wind energy density calculated with mean speed, Weibull and
Rayleigh functions for year 2012 ............................................................................................... 62
Figure 5.22: Monthly wind energy density calculated with mean speed, Weibull and
Rayleigh functions for year 2013 ............................................................................................... 63
Figure 5.23: Comparison of average error estimated for 2 years, evaluated by Weibull and
Rayleigh distributions w.r.t actual observed wind data .......................................................... 65
10
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Wind resources assessment of Pakistan [4] ............................................................ 14
Table 5.1: Monthly values of Vmp and Vmax.E for the year 201213 ........................................ 43
Table 5.2: Monthly values for Shape and Scale parameters of Weibull distribution........... 45
Table 5.3: Distribution of frequencies calculated from wind speed data for year 2012 ....... 47
Table 5.4: Distribution of frequencies calculated from wind speed data for year 2013 ....... 48
Table 5.5: Evaluation of Statistical models used ...................................................................... 59
Table 5.6: Monthly comparison of power densities calculated from actual wind data,
Weibull and Rayleigh models .................................................................................................... 60
Table 5.7: Yearly average values of wind power and energy density .................................... 63
Table 5.8: Classes of wind power density at 10 m and 50 m height [33] ............................... 64
11
Chapter # 1
INTRODUCTION:
Pakistan is an emerging country having population of above 180 million but the average energy
per capita of the year is about 450 kWh; whereas, the Worlds average value of energy
consumption per year is 2730 kWh [1]. Almost, 37% population of remote areas are still awaiting
to be connected with the national grid [1]. Billions of dollars are being spent on the import of oil
for thermal power houses; resultantly, worse economy, air pollution, acid rain emission and abrupt
climate change. Enormous industrialization is taking place, Hydro Power / water resource are
depleting and oil and gas resources are, if local than scarce in availability and else, wounding the
budget of whole economy. Hence, depletion, pollution and energy shortage is further scorching to
our deficit economy badly, which requires severe attention and ultimate solution. Therefore, to
meet the emergent electricity demand of the country and to save the environment as well as
economy, we need Renewable energy sources in addition with existing power resources as these
are free, environment friendly and enriched in Pakistan.
In renewable energy sources, wind is most speedily growing source in the world. Likewise, other
renewable energy source, it is clean, abundantly available, reliable and does not affect the
environment. Wind energy added more consideration and importance worldwide after the oil crisis
in 1973 and 1979 [2]. Currently, based upon the global wind energy statistics, the total wind energy
capability of the world at the end of 2014 is 371,559 MW with the added capacity of 52,654 MW
in 2014 only, having annual growth rate of 16.4% [3]. This wind energy capacity of the world, at
the end of 2013 and 2012, was 319,036 MW and 282,810 MW respectively [3]. In Fig. 1.1 the
total mounted aptitude of the wind energy of the world has been shown since year 1997 to 2014
[3].
12
Figure 1.1: Total installed capacity of the world wind energy ever since 1997 to 2014
In the Word, China is leading with total wind energy installed capacity of 114,763 MW by the
addition of 23,350 MW in the year 2014 only, having growth rate of 25.7% [3]. USA came 2nd in
the list having total installed capacity of the wind 66,754 MW at the end of year 2014. Germany,
Spain and India are at the number 3rd, 4th and 5th spot having total installed capacity of 40,468
MW, 22,986.5 MW and 22,465 MW respectively by the end of year 2014 [3].
In Europe, total wind energy capacity has grown from 119 GW in 2013 to 132 GW in 2014 [3].
Germany is leading in Europe having total install capacity of 40,468 MW followed by Spain, UK,
France and Italy with installed capacity of 22,986 MW, 12,440 MW, 9,296 MW and 8,662 MW
respectively [3]. In Asia, china is at the top of wind installed capacity followed by India, Turkey
(most wind form is on its Asian part), Japan and South Korea having wind installed capacities of
22,465 MW, 3,763 MW, 2,788 MW and 609 MW respectively [3]. In Pakistan, work is in progress
on different projects regarding wind energy and currently has total wind installed capacity of 256
MW by the end of 2014, with the addition of 156 MW in the subsequent year [3]. Pakistan is at
the 43th number in the list of world wind installed capacity [3].
Wind energy has been recognized as a one of the significant and latent source of energy for
Pakistan. The country has a total estimated gross wind power capacity of around 346,000 MW [4].
Currently, the total installed power generation capacity (containing hydel, thermal and nuclear
13
sources) of Pakistan is 22,800 MW while the actual power generation is around 9,000 MW due to
many aspects [4]. The demand varies between 16,500 MW (in summer) to 10,000 MW (in winter)
[4]. Hence this shortfall of electricity can easily be encountered by the installation of more wind
power projects.
Table 1.1, reveals that Pakistan has over 9% of total land which is appropriate for utmost utilityscale wind turbine application [4]. The total wind generation capacity of this area is above 349,000
MW [4]. This is worthwhile to mention here that about 3.5% of the area has a wind potential of
class 4 or greater and has a potential of 132,990 MW, which is the prerequisite of price effective
wind power generation [4]. So, the demand of the country can easily be encountered by installing
more wind energy projects.
Table 1.1: Wind resources assessment of Pakistan [4]
Pakistan Meteorological department (PMD) with the collaboration of National Renewable energy
laboratory (NREL) and U.S Agency for international development (USAID) has developed a
mesoscale map of Pakistan as shown in Fig. 1.2. This map shows that there is an immense wind
potential available in areas of southern Sind, north Balochistan, central KPK, GilgitBaltistan and
different areas of Punjab and Azad Kashmir.
Furthermore, PMD conducted a survey (PhaseI) alongside the coastal belt of Sind province having
total area of 9300 sq. km and pointed out that this area has exploitable electric potential of about
11,000 MW [5]. The wind corridor of Gharokatibandar, spreading 60 km along the coastal of
Sind, alone has a wind potential of 60,000 MW [6]. Now, in PhaseII, survey is being done on the
northern area of Pakistan.
14
Figure 1.2: Wind map of Pakistan showing wind potential of all provinces [5]
Keeping in the view of highlighted most wind potential regions in Pakistan, this article is hereby
purposed to deep spot the site of Turbat, Balochistan as having good wind power potential and
energy density. Data was collected from Pakistan meteorological department (PMD), analyzed and
results were then statistically equated using Weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions,
accordingly. In order to get precise results, monthly and yearly analysis was done on the data.
Most probable wind speed and maximum carrying energy by wind are also calculated here, which
are required for the design of wind turbine blade profile for a particular site. Both, Weibull and
Rayleigh functions were then evaluated with the help of performance tests, to determine which
distribution function better described the actual data. After selecting the suitable distribution, the
Wind power density and energy density has been calculated. And based upon these results, it is
decided that in which class this site falls in wind power classification table. The error which
occurred during the calculation of wind power density has also been calculated here.
15
Chapter # 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
Many researchers have calculated the wind power potential at different sites of the World. In
Pakistan alongside PMD, many scholars calculated the wind power potential at different locations
of the country. Wind power density has been calculated at the place of Hawksbay Karachi, Gharo,
KatiBandar, Jiwani, Quetta, Babaurband and Jhimpir (mostly beside the coastal belt of Pakistan).
In [1] the wind power potential is calculated at Hawksbay Karachi Sind, Pakistan. 2 years (200910) data was taken and power densities were calculated using Weibull and Rayleigh distributions.
Mean wind speed and power density on yearly basis at the site was found to be 5.9 m/s and 197
W/m2 at the height of 80m. The site was found appropriate for wind energy projects. In [2] the
wind power density is calculated at the site, located in Gharo Sind, Pakistan. Five years data was
taken (200307), measured at 30 m height and investigated with the help of Weibull and Rayleigh
function. The average wind speed at the site was above 5 m/s. The wind power and energy density
of the site are 260 W/m2 and 2300 kWh/m2 respectively [2]. These power generations then
evaluated through the wind turbine of dissimilar manufacturers and found that this site has suitable
wind power potential and appropriate for wind generation projects [2]. In [4] the wind power
potential of three provinces of the country was analyzed and Jiwani (a site of Balochistan) was
taken as a case study and its specific power density was assessed. At the end, a practical scheme
is proposed for the integration of wind power output of the turbine to the national grid.
Kharo SF et al. [7] investigated the power density of wind for the site Babaurband Sind, Pakistan
at 4 different altitudes and then assessed the wind power likely to be generated over commercial
wind turbines. At 80m height, the yearlymean wind speed was found to be 6.712 m/s while wind
power density was 310 W/m2. The values of power densities were higher from April to August.
To illustrate the feasibility of wind turbine installed, economic analysis was done and cost per
kWh was found to be 0.0263 US$/kWh. The site was found to be suitable for wind energy projects.
Calculation of wind power potential outside the Pakistan includes; S.H. PishgarKomleh et al. [8]
computed power potential of the wind using Weibull and Rayleigh functions at the site of
Firouzkooh region of Iran. 10 years (200110) data, based upon 3h period, was taken and
analyzed. The average value of wind power was found to be 203 and 248 Wm2 year1 based upon
16
average and rootmean cube speed methodologies [8]. The site was found suitable for wind turbine
installation, because it falls in class 4 of wind power classification. Results shows that Weibull and
Rayleigh models closefitting the actual data well with R2 value of 0.97. E.K Akpinar et al. [9]
calculated power potential of wind at KebanElazig, a site in the Turkey. 5 years (19982002) data
was taken and analysed through the Weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions. Weibull
distribution better describe the observed wind data than the Rayleigh distribution at the nominated
site. The yearly value of average power density was found to be 15.603 W/m2, so this is not a
suitable site for grid connection usage. This power density of this rank can be utilized for nongrid
application like battery charging and water pumping [9]. L. Fyrippis et al. [10] inspected the wind
power prospective of Koronos village, a location present in the Naxos Island, Greece. Wind
characteristics were statistically analysed with the help of Weibull and Rayleigh distribution
functions. It was exposed that the Weibull distribution tailored the actual data finer than the
Rayleigh. The yearly values of mean wind speed and power density at the designated site was 7.4
m/s and 420 W/m2 respectively, so this site comes underneath Class 7 of the wind classification
i.e. this is an excellent site for wind energy projects. B. Safari, J. Gasore [11] statistically
investigated the wind power potential with the help of Weibull and Rayleigh models in Rwanda at
five different stations. 20 years (197493) data was taken from the meteorological station of
Rwanda. At the selected site, Weibull probability density function was found to be more suited for
the empirical distribution of the data.
In South Africa, Ayodele TR et al. [12] examined physical characteristics and power potential of
the wind in the coastal region at ten different sites. 1 year data was taken based on the 10min
average wind speed at 20m and 60m height. Performance tests like Correlation coefficient and
RMSE test were applied firstly to check that which distribution can better describe the data at the
site. The daily variation, wind speed characteristics, peak periods of electricity and the turbulence
intensity were found at the selected site. Besides these, Optimum and most probable wind speed
and shear exponential were also calculated here. Data was analyzed using Weibull distribution
because of its better fitting than the Rayleigh and lognormal distribution and results showed that
Napier site has excellent wind potential while Calvinia site has low wind potential having values
of 694 W/m2 and 216.29 W/m2 respectively.
17
Likewise, many scholars have also calculated the characteristics and power potential of the wind
at different places of many countries of the world similar to, determination of wind energy potential
in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan presented in [13], statistical analysis was done using Weibull and Rayleigh
models to determine the wind power density at the site of Malaysia in [14], Wind speed
characteristics and power potential of wind was determined in Akure, South west Nigeria and
presented in [15], Characteristics and power potential of wind was examined in Osmaniye, Turkey
[16].
18
Chapter # 3
BASIC THEORY IN WIND ENERGY
3.1 Introduction of Wind energy
The movement of atmospheric air, sensed as wind by us, touches every single corner of the earth
in this planet. There might be some places that never experienced any rain but nobody ever
envisioned a place where wind lost. The movement of air is just because of the solar heating of the
earth and winds carrying a portion of energy in solar radiation, which is firstly absorbed by earth
and then transferred in various forms back to the atmosphere. As, the surface of the earth is not
similar because of the presence of the land, seas, desert and forest; therefore, the portion of energy
that is fascinated varies both in space and time. This generates, difference in atmospheric
temperature, pressure and density, which in sequence produces forces that transport air from one
place to other. As water and land absorbs radiations in a different way just like valley and
mountains do, this difference causes the air to move.
Throughout the year, as compare to Polar Regions, tropical sections of the earth receive additional
solar energy to radiate the earth. Because, neither tropic regions always remain warm from year
to year nor do the poles get cold, there is an altercation of thermal energy through latitudes where
wind serve as the medium of convection. Likewise: uneven heating, earths rotation also plays an
important part in the movement of air. Rotation of earth generates Coriolis forces which move the
air particles toward the Northern and Southern hemisphere. So, localized wind systems get
established over the, mountains, valleys, deserts and seas.
However, unlike sunshine (i.e. comparatively uniform in a particular region over a specified period
of time) winds are inconsistent, changing in space and time, varying from one place to other,
gusting in fluctuating strengths over different period of time and commencing seconds to years.
Winds transmit the kinetic energy of the atmosphere, which is convertible into electricity with the
help of wind turbines and conveyed through wires in desired areas faroff from the point of
generation. Wind generation capacity can be harnessed on the large scale and after connecting it
with national grid, it can contribute to encounter the load and energy necessities of the country.
19
20
that the global wind reserve is very large and is widely distributed. As the development is made,
technically and frugally, wind energy can serve as a remedy to the world energy crisis.
Even though wind resource approximations have significance, more detailed calculations are
required to enumerate the resources in a specific area. Winds are sporadic source of energy but
they characterize a reliable energy source year by year. Now days, large number of studies
regarding grid systems incorporation reveals that the irregularity of wind energy is no more barrier
for its large scale use. Further, most of the wind turbines are being use for the generation of
electricity in the worldwide either parallel to grid systems or in remote locations. The purpose of
installing wind turbine is to diminish the fossil fuel consumption and to reduce the total electricity
generation price.
First step in the assessment of wind resource is to identify the preliminary area. In this way
relatively large region is separated for appropriate wind resource area grounded on the statistics
like airport data of wind, topography, highlighted trees and supplementary facts.
Second step is to evaluate the wind resource and this relates to wind assessment plans to illustrate
the wind potential in a distinct area where wind power improvement is being deliberated. The
utmost common objectives of this extent of measurement are to:
Enumerate, whether adequate wind resource occurs inside the area to rationalize extra site
precise inquiries;
Achieve demonstrative data for approximating the performance and the financial
sustainability of particular wind turbine;
Display of potential wind turbine scheduling locations by matrix investigation of wind, site
and wind turbine.
Third stage is regarding micrositing at the minimum scale of wind resource evaluation. The chief
objective of these three stages is to compute the small size inconsistency of the wind resource
above the territory of curiosity. Eventually, micro siting is being used to position one or additional
wind turbines on a portion of land to exploit the total energy yield of the wind plant.
21
[ ]
(1)
Where V represents the wind speed at a required height; Z represents the wind speed at
reference height; Zr and is the surface roughness factor varies from 0.128 to 0.160 for a
homogenous surface [18]. The typical value of surface roughness factor is 0.14 which is widely
accepted for low roughness surfaces and well unprotected sites [12].
22
In order to transport the data in appropriate and easy form, primary data is summarized and
grouped together into classes, this process is called classification. Two ends of the class are called
the class interval. Class boundaries are achieved by the accumulation of the upper limit of one
class interval and the lower limit of next upper class and divided by two.
3.5.3 Tabulation of data
An organized arrangement of data for statistical information characterized in rows and columns is
called the tabular form of the data. These table are further classified into two types such as
(1) General purpose, constructed for reference
(2) Particular purpose used to analyze or support in investigating data
1+2+3++
Vavg = ni=1 Vi
(2)
(3)
23
3.6.2 Median
The median of the set of data values, is the value which inhabits the middle position when data has
been organized into ascending or descending order. If, in any case two middle values are accessible
then median will be the average of these two.
Med = [V (n+1) /2]
when n is odd
(4)
(5)
Here, n is again represents the total number of observing wind speed data.
3.6.3 Mode
The mode of the data is the value which occur the most number of time. Mode is not essentially a
single value and actually may not present some time. In case of frequency distribution, the value
which is maximum is called the mode of the distribution. If the frequency curve has one peak it
has one mode while, curve having two maxima, have two modes.
Md = =1( )
(6)
24
1
1
=1 ( )2
(7)
The division with n1 is referred to as the number of degrees of freedom. If, we just take the
positive square root of the variance we will get the standard deviation of the data, so the formula
to calculate the standard deviation of the data becomes
Standard deviation = = 2
So equation (8) in case of standard deviation becomes
1
=[
1/2
=1 ( )2 ]
(8)
100
Vavg
100
(9)
Coefficient of variation gives the amount of deviation present in the hourly time sequence data or
the amount of turbulence present in the wind data. It has no unit because standard deviation and
mean of data both have same dimensions of variable used.
25
1 1/
Vmp = c [
+2 1/
Vmax.E = c [
(10)
(11)
For the design of wind turbine, it is proposed that rated wind speed must be very much near to the
wind speed transporting maximum energy because wind speed has maximum efficiency at rated
wind speed [20].
26
Chapter # 4
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
4.1 Site description and data collection
Pakistan has immense wind power potential available in different regions of the country but most
of the sites which have studies yet lies along the coastal belt of the Sind and Balochistan. Besides
the coastal belt, very few areas have been studied to assess the wind potential of the site. Turbat is
one of those sites which despite having the wind energy capacity has not yet harnessed for wind
potential. So, keeping in view of the above, a site of Turbat is selected to determine the wind
potential of the site and to determine, either this site is feasible for wind energy projects or not.
Turbat is a city situated in southern Balochistan, which is a largest province (Areawise) of
Pakistan. Turbat is positioned on the left bank of Kech River and has total population of around
about 90,000. The climate of Turbat is relatively cool and windy. Turbat metrology station is
located at 250 59 N latitude and 630 04 E longitude at a height of 155m (508 feet) above sea level.
The site has high population and many limitations (like hilly areas) to supply energy, therefore
searching for other alternatives renewable energy sources like wind or solar is essential for the
survival of mankind. Now a days, due to the more concern of world towards the global warming
and greenhouse effect of the gases by the exhausts of power plants, alternate energy should be
clean, environmental friendly and renewable in nature.
The selected site is suitable for the installation of wind projects because:
Surface is not smooth due to the presence of the hilly areas so, water or thermal projects
are not suitable at the site while wind energy projects can be utilized for small scale
purposes i.e. for single house only.
Site is situated 155 m above the ground level and as height increases, capacity of power
generation also increases from wind turbine.
27
28
Wind speed is measure in the form of the integer and each value is observed many times during
the month or year. As in previous section, it has been explained in detail that average value of the
data set can be calculated with the help of equation (2) or (3). Besides measuring the mean value
of data, we are also fascinated in the unpredictability of the set of numbers and we want to find the
abnormality present in each number with respect to the mean value and then locate the average of
these abnormalities.
In order to develop the frequency curves, we use continuous mathematical functions; which are
convenient to use instead of using the discrete values. So, the probability values p (Vi) become a
density function which is f (V) and is called as Probability density function (PDF). If velocity V
of the wind is a continuous random variable having range (0,) then it must satisfy
f (V) 0 ,
0<V<
0 () = 1
(12)
An additional useful probability measure of the data is Cumulative density function (CDF). In case
of continuous function, let F (V) represents the cumulative density function for the variable V,
which is a continuous variable having range
0<V<
The CDF can be defined as:
F (V) = 0 ()
(13)
Here, speed is considered as per continuous random variable and so F (V) has the properties of
CDF are:
F (0) = 0
(14)
F () = 1
(15)
It is not necessarily that the value of F (0) will be zero in the case of discrete random variable
because there are cool spells with generally zero wind speed measure and included in F (0).
However, in the case of continuous random variable F (0) is the integral with the sign of integration
limits.
29
Weibull distribution
Rayleigh distribution
Chisquare distribution
Normal distribution
Lognormal distribution
Gamma distribution
Among all these distributions, we will discuss here some continuous frequency distributions only,
which are associated to our work. The selected distributions are Weibull, Rayleigh, normal and
30
Chisquare distribution. These distributions are selected because they have close association with
each other, by changing the values of the variables we can change one distribution into other.
Burnoulli is the chief and simplest form of distribution having two possible outcomes only i.e.
Success and failure. If the random variable telling the two trials, then the corresponding pdf will
be as:
P {x = 0} = p and P{x = 1} = q = 1 p
(16)
Here 0 q 1
One more important distribution which originates from Burnoullis trials is the Binomial
distribution. In binomial distribution, we specify the trial to be n. In order to get the normal
distribution from binomial, we apply some conditions i.e. first is n and the second is that p
is constant. This normal distribution is a type or continuous distribution also called Gaussian
distribution having density function as:
f (v) =
1
2
(v ) / 2 ,
 < <
(17)
Here, v is the wind speed, Vavg shows the average wind speed and represents standard deviation
of the observed wind data.
Normal distribution is consider as a most consistent and best distribution to describe any data
whether it is normally dispersed or not. As and when we applied certain conditions to the normal
distribution, it got converted into the Weibull distribution.
The second most imperative distribution to analyze the wind data is Rayleigh distribution. This
distribution also gives adequate results in most of the cases alongside Weibull distribution.
Rayleigh distribution is a subset of Weibull distribution however this can also be derived from the
normal distribution.
The last and most significant family of continuous probability distribution is Chisquare
distribution. There are some relationship exists among normal, Weibull and Rayleigh distribution.
In a case, when we have N (0, 1); the normal distribution turns into the Chisquare distribution.
There are also relationship presents between the Chisquare distribution and Weibull distribution
through which we can calculate the parameters of chisquare.
31
Weibull distribution is most important, common and well acknowledged distribution for the
calculation of wind power and energy all over the world because of its adaptability. This is the
only distribution which cannot be derived from any further distribution like other continuous
distributions. By keeping the shape parameter (k) of Weibull distribution as k = 3.6, k = 2, k = 1,
Weibull distribution changes into normal, Rayleigh and exponential distribution respectively. So,
the Weibull distribution is only the essential and unique continuous distribution from others.
Various statistical models are being used to describe and analyze the wind data in which some are
normal, lognormal, Weibull and Rayleigh distributions functions [21, 22]. Among all these
distributions functions, Weibull and Rayleigh distributions functions are generally applied and
accepted worldwide because both these distributions provide finer approximations to observed
wind speed data [13].
f (V) = ( ) ( )
exp [ ( ) ]
(18)
32
Here V represents the wind speed, K is shape parameter for weibull having no unit, C denotes the
Weibull scale parameter possessing similar unit as wind speed and f (V) indicates probability
density function of perceiving wind speed.
The corresponding cumulative density function (CDF) is described as [2];
F (V) = 1 exp [ ( ) ]
(19)
Here F (V) represents the cumulative density function for wind speed (V).
4.4.1.1 Estimation of Weibull shape and Scale parameter
There are numerous methods which are being used to compute the Weibull shape and scale
parameters like:
Empirical method;
There is a lot of search going on to determine that which method can better describe the value of
Weibull shape and scale parameters. The value of shape and scale parameters mostly depend upon
the sites specification, duration of the data and the dispersion of the data. Here in this study these
parameters are calculated using Empirical method.
In empirical method, these parameters are calculated with the help of average wind speed and
variance or standard deviation. These parameters are calculated here using equations (3) & (7).
The formulas for the calculation of k and c are [2];
k= (
c=
1.086
(1+(1))
(20)
(21)
( ) = 0 1 1 dt
(22)
33
Similarly, scale parameter for weibull distribution can also be evaluated by using the equation
[28];
c=
2.6674
0.184 +0.816 2.7385
(23)
Using the weibull shape parameter (k) and scale parameter (c), mean wind speed of the data can
be determine or verified as
1
Vm = c (1 + )
(24)
Here Vm denotes the mean wind speed and k is a shape while c is a scale parameter.
4.4.1.2 Behavior of calm wind speed
Weibull distribution better describe the data when wind speed is more than 1 knot or 0.5 m/s. It
has been experimentally proved that Weibull distribution does not give better fit for wind speed
having magnitude less than 0.5 m/s, so in order to apply Weibull distribution to data, wind speed
data must be greater than zero.
So, observation of calm cannot be involved in the computation of F (V) while applying Weibull
distribution to any observed data of wind speed. To include the consequence of zero wind speed,
values like Vavg and Vavg 3 are to be multiplied with the factor of (1f) where f characterizes that
portion of time when zero wind speed has been logged.
34
In Rayleigh distribution function, we assumed that the shape parameter (k) has fixed value such as
K = 2 [19, 30], so in this distribution, expressions to calculate the probability density function
(PDF) and cumulative density function (CDF) are [2];
f (V) = ( 2 ) exp [ ( ) (
2
4
F (V) = 1  exp [ ( ) (
4
) ]
(25)
) ]
(26)
Here the shape parameter is taken to be 2 while scale parameter can be calculated by equations
(21) or (23).
4.4.2.1 Facts of Rayleigh distribution
It is very hard to make comprehensive generalization concerning the capability of Rayleigh
distribution function to fit the data, although curves display very good amplitude and extended
width for higher wind speeds. The effectiveness of this distribution is to predict the power output
of the site. Both distribution may yield acceptable results but the results of Weibull distribution
are more accurate while Rayleigh distribution is easier to use. When the mean wind speed is larger,
graphs of data give flatter shape while peak becomes sharp when average speed of wind is less
than 2.0 m/s.
2
RMSE = [
=1( ) ]
2 =
R2 =
=1( )
2
2
=1( ) =1( )
2
=1( )
(27)
(28)
(29)
35
Where yi shows ith actual data, xi denotes ith projected data calculated through the help of
Weibull or Rayleigh functions, N represents the total number of observation and n denotes the
total number of constants [12].
The slighter the value of two tests such as RMSE and Chisquare, the finer the curve fits for the
observed wind data. Ideally, the values of these two tests should be equal to zero. The value of
R2 should be highest i.e. equal to 1, which describe the better fit of the data.
(30)
Here VC is the cutout velocity while Vr is the ranked wind speed for a particular wind turbine.
36
Power = 2
2
Power =
1
2
(AV) 2
So we have
P (V) =
PD =
1
2
P (V)
= 3
2
(31)
(32)
Here P (V) denotes power the wind in (W) and P (V) / A denotes the wind density for each swept
area A (Wm2) and expresses density of the air in (kg/m3) at this particular site.
So, equation (31) reveals that in order to get a maximum power from wind, it requires:
Higher wind speed as power output from wind turbine is directly proportional to cubic
power of mean wind speed so, a small deviation in wind speed can consequence in a huge
alteration in the wind power output.
Longer length of blades in order to attain a large swept area of blades of the wind turbine
(33)
37
Here l is the length of wind turbine blades and r is the radius of the hub height. So, by doubling
the length of the wind turbines blade then area increase up to 4 times.
In Fig. 4.2. the swept area of wind turbine blade has been shown and it could be seen that swept
area mainly depends upon the length of the blade.
(34)
Here P represents the average pressure of air in (Pa), T denotes the average temperature of air in
(K), R shows the general gas constant having value of 287 JKg1K1 in the case of air.
4.11.3 Wind power density using weibull distribution
Wind power density using Weibull distribution can be calculated by formula as [2];
PD,W =
1
2
C3 (1 + )
(35)
Here is the density of air, c is a scale parameter of weibull, is a gamma function and k is a shape
parameter of weibull.
38
PD,R = 3
(36)
(,)
(37)
Here represents the power density of wind, enumerated through perceived wind data and has
been taken here as a reference while P D (W,R) is power density (Wm2) evaluated through weibull
or Rayleigh function.
1
2
C3 (1 + )T
(38)
Where T is the time duration in (h) for the year and so on.
Monthly analysis
1year analysis
2year analysis
39
First of all, monthly analysis was done and all the values of parameters were calculated like
Average wind speed, Variance of the data, most feasible wind speed, wind speed bearing
maximum energy, Weibull shape and scale parameters. After calculating these parameters,
frequency distribution table was drawn. In frequency distribution table comparison between the
actual, Weibull and Rayleigh probabilities is made. Then after selecting the suitable distribution
to better fit the data, Wind power potential and wind energy density has been calculated.
Similarly, analysis was done on the 1 yearly basis and all these parameters again calculated and
then again analysis was done 2years basis and all these parameters are again calculated.
At the end, comparison has been made between the values calculated monthly, 1 yearly and 2
yearly basis.
40
Chapter # 5
RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS
In this research work, analysis and assessment of both; wind speed data and power potential of
wind is executed. Wind speed characteristics such as mean, availability of wind, wind duration
and standard deviations are determined to compute the power potential and energy density of the
wind at the selected site.
7
Year 2012
Year 2013
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.1: Average wind speed per month for year 201213
41
From Fig. 5.1. It could be seen that the average wind speed has higher values for the months of
June, July and August, which are among the warmer months. The energy demand in these months
also increases due to hot weather in Pakistan. In contrast, average wind speed has lowest values
for the months of October, November and December, which are among the coldest months.
Year 2013
Stan. Deviation ()
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
42
2012
2013
Vmp
Vmax.E
Vmp
Vmax.E
January
4.588
6.214
2.876
7.702
February
5.244
10.086
3.505
6.588
March
4.434
9.009
3.974
7.412
April
4.332
8.015
3.464
6.772
May
4.711
7.612
3.592
7.694
June
4.603
8.666
4.002
8.759
July
4.916
7.959
3.218
8.061
August
4.051
5.842
2.481
8.928
September
4.194
7.055
2.659
7.561
October
3.499
6.138
November
3.220
7.682
December
3.245
7.842
Yearly
4.253
3.265
7.677
7.807
43
The average value of all the months for Vmp and Vmax.E are 3.83 m/s and 7.732 m/s respectively.
0.80
Year 2012
Year 2013
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
44
Dec 2012. Similarly for year 2013, the maximum value of k is 2.105 for the month of Mar 2013
while has minimum value of 1.508 for the month of Jul 2013.
Table 5.2: Monthly values for Shape and Scale parameters of Weibull distribution
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Yearly
Parameter
k
c
k
c
K
C
k
c
k
c
k
c
k
c
k
c
k
c
k
c
2012
3.010
5.247
2.057
7.249
1.978
6.329
2.119
5.856
2.393
5.906
2.090
6.285
2.388
6.169
2.738
4.782
2.300
5.375
2.214
4.590
2013
1.695
4.865
2.093
4.782
2.105
5.397
2.032
4.834
1.912
5.291
1.887
5.972
1.508
5.102
1.751
5.218
1.650
4.674

k
c
k
c
k
c
1.796
5.064
1.784
5.145
2.496
5.666
1.819
5.137
The monthly deviation in the values of Shape parameter has been shown in Fig. 5.4.
The scale parameter for the year 2012 has topmost value of 7.249 m/s for the month of Feb 2012
and has minimum value of 4.590 m/s for the month of Oct 2012.
45
3.5
Year 2012
Year 2013
Sep
Nov
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Oct
Dec
Months
8
Year 2012
Year 2013
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.5: Monthly variation in the values of scale parameter for year 201213
46
These parameters control the sketch of curve formed by Weibull and Rayleigh distributions. Shape
parameter defines the range and determine the shape of plot while Weibull scale parameter
determines the profile of the distribution just as a transformation of the Abscissa scale.
The value of shape factor c shows the probability of wind speed flowing, so greater value of c
indicates the higher value for the possibility of wind speed. In contrast, the maximum value of k
displays the greater possibility for frequent and uniform wind blowing across the side.
Bins
Vavg
fi
Actual
Weibull
Rayleigh
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
01
12
23
34
45
56
67
78
89
910
1011
1112
1213
1314
1415
1516
1617
1718
1819
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
17.5
18.5
0
70
285
369
256
425
213
163
121
68
83
13
13
6
4
8
0
0
1
0.000
0.033
0.135
0.175
0.122
0.204
0.101
0.078
0.058
0.032
0.039
0.006
0.006
0.003
0.002
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.106
0.140
0.154
0.147
0.126
0.098
0.069
0.045
0.027
0.015
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.109
0.140
0.151
0.143
0.122
0.095
0.068
0.046
0.028
0.016
0.008
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Wind speed frequency inside specific ranges (bins) has been indexed in column IV while the
column V represents the actual probability density distribution computed from actual data of wind
speed. Similarly, column VI and VII represents the probabilities calculated using Weibull and
47
Rayleigh distributions respectively. The Weibull probability distribution function and cumulative
distribution functions are being calculated here by equations (18) and (19) respectively. In the
same way probability density function and cumulative density function for Rayleigh distribution
are calculated with the help of equations (25) and (26) respectively.
Likewise, for year 2013 frequency distribution table has been shown in Table 5.4.
Table 5.4: Distribution of frequencies calculated from wind speed data for year 2013
i
Bins
Vavg
fi
Actual
Weibull
Rayleigh
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
01
12
23
34
45
56
67
78
89
910
1011
1112
1213
1314
1415
1516
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
0
139
258
260
235
228
119
85
73
58
58
12
10
5
0
4
0.000
0.090
0.167
0.168
0.152
0.148
0.077
0.055
0.047
0.038
0.038
0.008
0.006
0.003
0.000
0.003
0.000
0.137
0.155
0.151
0.131
0.105
0.078
0.055
0.036
0.013
0.013
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.130
0.161
0.165
0.147
0.116
0.083
0.054
0.032
0.009
0.009
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
Similarly, comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh probabilities has been made in Table. 5.4.
For year 2013. It can be seen in the table that probabilities of wind calculated using Weibull
distribution are much closer to the probabilities computed from actual frequencies of the wind than
the Rayleigh distribution. So, Weibull distribution better describing the actual data than the
Rayleigh distribution.
As, Weibull distribution displays better fit upon measured data of wind speed at the particular site
therefore Weibull distribution should be applied to evaluate the power potential of wind at the
candidate site instead of using Rayleigh distribution.
48
February, 2012
Probability density function
0.2
Actual Probability
Weibull Dist.
0.15
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.05
0
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Figure 5.6: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Feb 2012
In Fig. 5.6. actual, Weibull and Rayleigh probability density functions have been shown for the
month of Feb, 2012. Both distributions describing the actual data well but Weibull distribution
seems to describe the actual data better than Rayleigh distribution having R2 value of 0.817 while
for Rayleigh is 0.813.
In Fig. 5.7. probabilities are compared for the month of June 2012. Both distributions describing
the actual data well having R2 value of near about 90%.
49
0.18
June 2012
0.16
Actual Probability
0.14
Weibull Dist.
0.12
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
10
11
12
13
14
Figure 5.7: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jun 2012
In Fig 5.8. the graph shows the comparison of probabilities calculated using Actual, Weibull and
Rayleigh models for the month of September, 2012. For this particular month Weibull represents
the Actual data better than the Rayleigh.
0.25
September 2012
0.2
Actual Probability
Weibull Dist.
0.15
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.05
0
1
10
11
12
13
Figure 5.8: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Sep 2012
In Fig. 5.9. Probabilities are compared for the month of November, 2012. In this month Rayleigh
distribution defines the Real data superior than the Weibull distribution.
50
0.25
November 2012
0.2
Actual Probability
Weibull Dist.
0.15
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.05
10
11
12
13
14
15
Figure 5.9: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Nov 2012
In Fig. 5.10. the comparison of probabilities is done for the first month of 2013 i.e. January. Again
here Rayleigh distribution describe the data better than the Weibull having R2 of very close to one
i.e. 96.6 %
0.16
January, 2013
Probability Density Function
0.14
Actual probability
0.12
Weibull dist.
0.1
Rayleigh Dist.
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Figure 5.10: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jan 2013
51
Similarly, for the month of June, comparison has also made between the probabilities calculated
from Actual data, Weibull and Rayleigh models as presented in Fig. 5.11. Both distribution
describing the Actual data well.
0.16
June, 2013
Probability Density Function
0.14
Actual probability
0.12
Weibull dist.
0.1
Rayleigh Dist.
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Figure 5.11: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Jun 2013
For the month of August 2013, comparison of the probabilities calculated from actual wind speed
data, weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions has been made and been represented in the Fig.
5.12.
It could be seen from the figure that, for this particular month, although both distribution
representing the actual probability well but Rayleigh distribution seems to donate the actual
distribution better than the Weibull distribution.
52
0.25
August 2013
0.2
Actual Probability
Weibull Dist.
0.15
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.05
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Figure 5.12: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Aug 2013
Likewise, for the month of September, 2013 Rayleigh distribution seems to donate the actual
data better than the distribution as shown in Fig. 5.13.
0.25
September 2013
0.2
Actual Probability
Weibull Dist.
0.15
Rayleigh Dist.
0.1
0.05
0
1
10
11
12
13
Figure 5.13: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh Pdf for the month of Sep 2013
53
0.18
0.14
Actual Probability
0.12
0.8
Weibull Pdf
0.1
Rayleigh Pdf
0.08
Weibull Cdf
0.06
Rayleigh Cdf
0.04
0.6
0.4
0.16
1.2
0.2
0.02
0
0
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Figure 5.14: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 2012
From Fig. 5.14. it is clear that for the year 2012, in case of probability density function, Weibull
is representing the data well with R2 value of 91%. Similarly, cumulative density function is also
better describe by the Weibull distribution.
Comparison of PDF and CDF has also made for the year 2013 as shown in Fig. 5.15.
54
0.18
1.2
0.16
0.12
0.8
Actual PDF
0.1
Weibull PDF
0.08
Raleigh PDF
0.06
Weibull CDF
0.6
0.4
Rayleigh CDF
0.04
0.2
1
0.14
0.02
0
0
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Figure 5.15: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 2013
From the Fig. 5.15. It is distinct that for the year 2013, Rayleigh PDF is describing the Actual
probability of the data well. While CDF calculated from both distributions have almost the same
result.
After the yearly analysis of the data, 2years complete analysis was also done. Again probability
density function calculated from actual data, Weibull distribution and Rayleigh distribution.
Similarly, CDF is also compared here as shown in Fig. 5.16. In case of complete analysis of 2
years, both distribution representing the actual data well while Weibull appears to denote the actual
data better than the Rayleigh distribution. While in the case of cumulative distribution function
both models represent the same results.
55
0.2
1.2
1
0.16
0.14
Actual Probability
0.12
Weibull PDF
0.1
Rayleigh PDF
0.08
Weibull Cdf
0.06
Rayleigh Cdf
0.04
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.18
0.2
0.02
0
0
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Figure 5.16: Comparison of Actual, Weibull and Rayleigh PDF, CDF for year 201213
So, at the site of Turbat both Weibull and Rayleigh distributions matched the perceived data quite
well. The deviation within the distributions depends upon the value of shape factor k. In
Rayleigh distribution k has fixed value i.e. 2, consequently in Weibull distribution the calculated
value of k is also approaches to 2 i.e. 2.059 therefore the results of both distributions are almost
similar. Whereas the difference between these two distributions is very minor but Weibull seems
to denote the actual data better than the Rayleigh. It is also clear from the above figures that there
are very less chances for the wind speed to exceed the limit of 20 m/s at the site.
These tests are used to check the accuracy of the distributions in this study.
56
Weibull Dist.
Rayleigh Dist.
R2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.17: Monthly values of R2 for Weibull and Rayleigh distribution, year 2012
Similarly, for the year, 2013, R2 values are also calculated for each month as shown in Fig. 5.18.
Here again, Weibull has higher values of R2 test than Rayleigh distribution. So, theses graphs show
that Weibull distribution is better describing the observed wind data at the site of Turbat.
57
1.2
Weibull Dist.
Rayleigh Dist.
R2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Months
Figure 5.18: Monthly values of R2 for Weibull and Rayleigh distribution, year 2013
Average value of R2 for all month calculate for both distributions are
Monthly average R2 value in case of Weibull distribution = 0.874
Monthly average R2 value in case of Rayleigh distribution = 0.852
Similarly, yearly R2 values for Weibull and Rayleigh distributions are
Year 2012:
Weibull distribution = 0.944
Rayleigh distribution = 0.951
Year 2013:
Weibull distribution = 0.918
Rayleigh distribution = 0.905
Year 2012 & 2013:
Weibull distribution =
0.946
Rayleigh distribution =
0.942
So, after viewing the statistics given above, R2 test give better result as the number of observation
increases as monthly R2 values are mostly below the 90% while the yearly values are above the
90% showing good correspondence of both distributions with actual wind data. As Weibull
distribution has higher values of R2 test, so Weibull distribution better describe the actual data.
58
Weibull
Rayleigh
RMSE
0.0040
0.0043
2.019 106
2.347 106
From Table. 5.5. it is clear that Weibull has lower values for both RMSE and Chisquare tests.
Any distribution model having values of both tests i.e. RMSE and ChiSquare tests closer to zero
while the value of R2 near to unity; is considered to be the better for the estimation of real wind
speed data, so Weibull distribution better describe the perceived data than the Rayleigh one
because it has higher value of R2 and lower values for both RMSE and 2 tests.
59
Table 5.6: Monthly comparison of power densities calculated from actual wind data,
Weibull and Rayleigh models
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Actual
89.804
306.090
217.871
152.694
143.480
196.318
165.020
71.593
111.739
75.100
125.795
134.627
Weibull
88.548
302.153
209.327
154.699
143.567
193.827
163.918
70.107
111.519
71.632
120.326
127.313
Rayleigh
120.703
310.725
207.154
163.699
168.317
202.402
191.865
90.352
126.649
78.795
107.213
112.542
Actual
120.211
86.817
128.245
94.460
131.545
182.391
160.701
138.836
109.709
Weibull
115.517
85.255
121.887
90.690
127.049
185.550
161.421
136.156
106.690
Rayleigh
95.990
89.129
128.122
92.196
121.336
174.685
114.398
117.739
85.657
2012
2013
Average wind power densities for the year 2012 has been represented in the Fig. 5.19. in which
power density evaluated using Actual mean wind speed, Weibull and Rayleigh distribution has
been shown and compared. Where, it could be seen that the highest value of power density for year
2012, is for the month of Feb having value of 306.090 W/m2. While, the minimum value of average
power density for year 2012 is for the month of Aug with value of 71.593 W/m2. The lower values
of average wind power are usually observed from the months of Aug to Dec.
Average wind power densities of the year 2013 has been represented in the Fig. 5.20. Where it
could be seen that the highest value of power density for year 2013 is for the month of Jun and the
value is 182.391 W/m2.
60
350
Year 2012
300
Actual
Weibull
250
Rayleigh
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.19: Average monthly wind power density of the Turbat site
The minimum value of average power density for year 2013 is for the month of Feb and the
correspondingly value is 86.817 W/m2.
200
Year 2013
Actual
160
Weibull
Rayleigh
120
80
40
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Months
Figure 5.20: Average monthly wind power density for Turbat site
61
Again for the year 2013, the maximum values of power densities are higher from the months of
April to July 2013. So, these months are very much suitable for the wind power plans having
immense wind potential to generate electricity. The average values of actual Power density
estimated by taking the mean of all months is 140.145 W/m2.
Weibull Dist.
200
Rayleigh Dist.
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.21: Monthly wind energy density calculated with mean speed, Weibull and
Rayleigh functions for year 2012
From Fig. 5.21. it can be observed that the values of wind energy density are higher from Feb to
July and the values calculated from actual mean wind speed and Weibull distribution have similar
results i.e. there is very much less difference.
In Fig. 5.22. the monthly values of wind energy densities are shown for the year 2013. Again
values calculated from mean wind speed and Weibull distribution have close resemblance. The
62
maximum value of energy density is 131.32 kWh/m2 for June, 2013, whereas the minimum value
is 68.01 kWh/m2 for the month of February 2013.
160
Weibull Dist.
120
Rayleigh Dist.
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Months
Figure 5.22: Monthly wind energy density calculated with mean speed, Weibull and
Rayleigh functions for year 2013
The yearly value of Wind energy density for the year 201213 has been shown in Table. 5.7. and
it could be view that the value of wind energy density is maximum for the year 2012 and i.e.
1306.796 kWh/m2.
Table 5.7: Yearly average values of wind power and energy density
Year
PD (W/m2)
ED (kWh/m2)
2012
149.178
1306.796
2013
128.102
830.099
Wind energy density has an average value of 101.775 kWh/m2 for month, which has been
calculated by taking the average of all months is.
In Table. 5.8. Wind classification has been given at 10 m and 50 m height. Table represents the
different wind power classes and correspondingly, the range of wind speed and power density
accomplished with that class.
63
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Resource
potential
Poor
Marginal
Moderate
Good
Excellent
Excellent
Excellent
10 m (33 ft)
Wind power
density
(W m2)
0100
100150
150200
200250
250300
300400
>400
50 m (164 ft)
Speed
(m s1)
04.4
4.45.1
5.15.6
5.66.0
6.06.4
6.47.0
>7.0
Wind power
density
(W m2)
0200
200300
300400
400500
500600
600800
>800
Speed
(m s1)
05.4
5.46.2
6.26.9
6.97.4
7.47.8
7.88.6
>8.6
It can be seen from the table that particular site is falling under class II of the wind classification
at this particular height by keeping in view the results of average wind speed and power density.
64
Weibull
Rayleigh
Error (%)
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Months
Figure 5.23: Comparison of average error estimated for 2 years, evaluated by Weibull and
Rayleigh distributions w.r.t actual observed wind data
In Fig. the monthly values of error estimated for both Weibull and Rayleigh distribution. Combine
value of error for both distribution is maximum for the month of November while it is minimum
for the month of June.
65
5.11.3 Comparison of error estimation using Weibull function and actual wind data
The above statistics shows that there is no such a difference between the power calculated by
monthly average values and evaluated with the aid of Weibull distribution. The error between these
two is only 2.2% which can be ignored.
So. Power density evaluated using Weibull distribution give better results than calculated from
Rayleigh distribution.
66
CONCLUSIONS
Pakistan currently facing a severe energy shortage and urgently needs new sources of energy to
alleviate the misery. The country has immense wind potential but still has not yet harnessed
completely so far, thats why thermal power plants have main share in the power generation of the
country. Billions of dollars have to be spent for the import of thermal resources from different
countries. Therefore, alternate resources like renewable can be exploited to decrease the burden
on the economy. Wind energy is one the most achievable and beautiful option for country due to
sustainability, low cost and having no environmental destruction. In this study, almost two (2)
years wind speed data has been taken and detailed assessment of wind power potential has been
carried out based upon the Weibull and Rayleigh functions at the site of Turbat Balochistan,
Pakistan. The main consequences of the analysis can be drawn as:
Monthly average value of wind speed is more than 4 m/s and the maximum monthly
average value of wind speeds is 6.422 m/s for the month of Feb 2012, while the minimum
value is 4.065 m/s for the month of Oct 2012.
The most probable wind speed is 5.244 m/s for the month of Feb, 2012; whereas, the wind
speed carrying maximum energy has highest value of 10.086 m/s for the month of Feb,
2012.
Weibull shape parameter has highest value of 3.010 for the month of Jan, 2012 and has a
range of 1.058 to 3.010 but scale parameter has highest value of 7.249 m/s for the month
of Feb, 2012 and has a range of 4.674 m/s to 7.249 m/s.
Wind power and energy densities have highest values from the months February to July.
The maximum value of average wind power density is 306.090 W/m2 for the month Feb,
2012 and has minimum value of 75.100 W/m2 for the month Oct, 2012. Likewise, the
maximum value of energy density is 205.7 kWh/m2 and minimum value is 55.9 Kwh/m2
for the months of Oct, 2012 and Feb, 2012 respectively.
Weibull and Rayleigh models predicted the actual data with 94% probability. The values
of RMSE and Chisquare test for Weibull model are 0.0040 and 2.019 106 while for
Rayleigh model are 0.0043 and 2.347 106 respectively.
67
With the increase in the number of observing wind speed data, better result can be find.
As the data length increases, Value of correlation (R2) between actual probabilities and
calculated using Weibull and Rayleigh functions come closer to unity i.e. data give better
results.
Weibull distribution describes the actual data better than Rayleigh distribution.
Wind power density calculated with the help of Weibull distribution give more concise and
better results than the Rayleigh distribution because values of error estimation are low in
case of Weibull distribution.
At this particular height, this site falls under class II of wind classification given in Table
5.8.
68
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