Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUY
Bloomberg Code
Reuters Code
EPC. IN
EPCI.BO.
Promoters
54.78
FII
1.64
DIIs
1.28
Stock Data
Nifty
8,485
Sensex
28,093
52 week high/low
237/128
4.52
Face value
10
1M
3M
6M
1Y
Absolute
25.7
0.5
7.4
-23.9
Relative to Sensex
21.5
2.7
4.1
-31.2
Relative Performance
250
200
150
100
BSE Sensex
Source:-Bloomberg
FY13
1,614
29.1
4.7
53
53
1.9
-19.8
64.9
6.5
7.5
0.12
3.3
FY14
1,747
8.3
5.9
77
77
2.8
44.3
36.8
7.1
8.4
0.01
2.5
FY15
1,683
-3.7
1.9
9
9
0.3
-88.4
499.5
0.8
1.3
0.00
3.9
FY16e
2,289
36.0
7.3
115
115
4.2
1182.1
39.5
8.8
9.4
0.00
3.1
FY17e
3,548
55.0
8.2
209
209
7.5
81.9
21.7
13.4
13.8
0.00
2.7
FY18e
5,890
66.0
10.0
433
433
15.7
107.6
10.5
23.1
23.3
0.00
2.2
Jun-11
Apr-11
EPC Industries
May-11
Mar-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
50
Nov-10
Rs. 313
Up/Down (%)
Sep-10
Rs. 164
Jul-10
Price Target
Aug-10
Price
Jul-10
Industry outlook
Scope of Irrigation industry in India
India being the 2nd largest land under cultivation (~142 mn ha) has a huge scope especially
when the 65% of cultivated land is dependent on monsoons. Irrigation can help to 1)reduce
over dependence on monsoons, 2) advanced agricultural productivity, 3) bringing more land
under cultivation, 4) reducing instability in output levels, 5) creation of job opportunities, 6)
electricity and transport facilities, 7)control of floods and prevention of droughts.
The Task Force on Micro Irrigation set up by the Central Government has stated that more
areas can be brought under irrigation if modern methods of irrigation are adopted. It
estimates the total potential in India to be around 69.5 Million Hectares. Only around ~10%
of this potential has been tapped so far in India. Hence there is tremendous opportunity for
micro irrigation business in the years to come. The Indian Micro Irrigation Industry had been
growing at a CAGR of ~20% prior to FY13.
agricultural development. The capacity of large countries like India to efficiently develop and
manage water resources is likely to be a key determinant for global food security in 21st
century.
Indias annual precipitation (rainfall & snowfall) is around 4000 BCM (Billion Cubic Meters) (or
4000 lakh crore litres). Out of this, close to 80% either gets washed away into the sea or is
subject to evaporation and percolation in the ground. Only about 20% or 800 BCM is currently
available for use. 80% of this usable water is utilized for Agriculture. India is currently on the
verge of being water stressed (< 1500 Cu m per capita) and it is estimated that by the year
2050,led by growing population and the pressure that it puts on agriculture, India will be on
the brink of becoming a water scarce country (< 1000 Cu m per capita).
Since agriculture is the major water-consuming sector in India, demand management in
agriculture is crucial to reduce the demand for water to match the available future supplies. A
number of demand management strategies and programmes have been introduced to save
water and increase the existing water use efficiency in Indian agriculture. One such method
introduced in Indian agriculture is micro-irrigation, which includes both drip and sprinkler
method of irrigation.
1,200
1,000
800
690
600
403
400
200
433
231
202
Present use
Available
Utilizable
287
Ground water
Surface water
| Equity research |
water use efficiency as compared to the conventional surface method of irrigation. Microirrigation was introduced primarily to save water and increase the water use efficiency in
agriculture. However, it also delivers many other economic and social benefits.
Reduction in water consumption due to drip irrigation systems over the surface irrigation
varies from 30 to 70% for different crops. Productivity gain due to use of micro-irrigation is
estimated to be in the range of 20 to 90% for different crops. It also reduces weed problems,
soil erosion and cost of cultivation substantially, especially in labour-intensive operations. The
reduction in water consumption in micro-irrigation also reduces the energy use (electricity)
that is required to lift water from irrigation wells. Micro-irrigation can also be adopted in all
kind of lands, which is not generally possible through flood irrigation method.
Research suggests that Drip Irrigation systems are not only suitable for those areas that are
presently under cultivation, but can also be operated efficiently in undulating terrain, rolling
topography, hilly areas, barren land and areas which have shallow soils. Given the population
growth and increasing requirement of agricultural commodities, there is a need to increase
the area under cultivation. Micro-irrigation can be one of the viable options for expanding area
under cultivation. Investment in Micro Irrigation also appears to be economically viable, even
without availing State subsidy.
Exhibit 3: Reasons for Micro Irrigation System
Higher productivity
Long term cost reduction
Access to credit
Reduced labour dependency
Subsidy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
| Equity research |
Investment rationale
The government under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana (PMKSY) launched
mega irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn (spent over next five years; for FY16 the
allocation is of Rs 53bn), which will give a boost to irrigation sector as a whole. EPC
presently has 5.5% market share in the micro irrigation space. Since, business is in
pretty nascent stages, the profitability is low and benefits of operating leverage will
take a while to play out.
We believe EPC with the PMSKY project and strong parentage of M&M can achieve
market share upwards of 15-20% with EBITDA margins of 15%+ over next 2-3-5
years.
We are quite confident that over next 5 years, EPC will grow at a CAGR of 51% We
feel the way application of agro chemicals is increasing , limited cultivable land and
importance of water usage increasing, growth in micro irrigation business can be
quite exponential in the times to come.
irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn. This scheme will focus on improving irrigation in non-rainfed areas as well as strive to improve water efficiency through the country.
India is a second largest country under crop cultivation (~142 mn ha.). Even though ~65% of
the cultivated land is still dependent on the monsoons for the cultivation. The PMKSY aims to
ensure access to some means of protective irrigation to all agricultural farms in the country,
to produce 'per drop more crop'. This initiative of the Government will help to boost
productivity, improve crop quality and help farmers upgrade to modern methods of farming.
This scheme will give boost to irrigation manufacturers; we believe EPC with strong product
portfolio and strong support from M&M will be the highest beneficiary going forward.
Exhibit 4: Governments policy under PMSKY project
Distribution
Command Area
Development
(CAD)
Management
National Mission
for Sustainable
Agriculture
(NMSA) : Dripsprinkler irrigation,
Moisture
conservation
| Equity research |
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
80
40
20
(%)
60
Revenue
FY18e
FY17e
FY16e
FY15
FY14
FY13
-20
FY12
Rs. Mn
Growth %
transform rural and semi-urban India into a self-reliant), along with ~1,000 branches. M&M
can use synergy between EPC and M&M finance to expand EPCs network under PMKSY
scheme.
The way business can happen between M&M Financials and EPC can be better understood
with the help of following example based on Gujarat model:
across state, due to PMKSY scheme, this model can work wonders for EPC
| Equity research |
land is still dependent on the monsoon. So far ~70mn ha land has got covered under
irrigation system, out of which only ~6mn land is under MIS (Micro-irrigation system). The
government of India is also giving the importance for micro- irrigation under PMKSY scheme.
We believe EPC has a huge potential to grow under this scheme along with its ~2600 dealers
spread across 17states, which they can further expand through M&Ms agri business network.
10,767
6,250
Potential
1,850
22%
1,038
1,084
547
28%
12%
51%
Andhra Pradesh
1,864
Wst Bengal
26%
Karnataka
9%
Bhira
2,008
0.7%
Haryana
2,983
Maharashtra
3,354
Gujarat
13%
Punjab
2.2%
4,922
Rajasthan
0.20%
MP
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Uttar Pradesh
Penetration
At present Jain Irrigation is a market leader with ~55% market share followed by private
player Netafim India (~20% market share). We believe, going forward EPC can easily expand
its market share and profitability led by 1) strong support from the parent company (M&M), 2)
EPC can also use M&Ms agri business network for its own expansion, 3) EPS is a zero debt
and better debtors days company than its peers, we further believe, EPC can improve upon its
margin once economies of scale take place (Market leader Jain Irrigation enjoys ~12%
EBITDA margins).
Exhibit 7: Market share distribution in irrigation sector
Others, 20%
EPC
Industries,
5.5%
Jain Irrigation,
55%
Netafim India,
20%
Dealers Network
4000
1500
2600
Market Share
55%
20%
5.5%
60508
7588*
1683
EBITDA margin
12%
5.4%*
1.9%
143
1.21
113*
0.54*
107
0.004
| Equity research |
Online Drippers
Irrigation laterals
Drip Fittings
Drip filters
Fertigation Equipment
Product Portfolio: Sprinkler Irrigation
Pipe fittings
Sprinkler Nozzles
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
| Equity research |
strong demand in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra, Karnataka,
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Haryana in India. Being a Mahindra group
company, EPC has presence in most of these states through a network of sales/branch offices
supported by its channel partners which can help EPC to expand its reach pan India level.
EPC has ~5.5% market share with ~2600 dealers network which is near to the competitors,
which gives us comfort that EPC can easily increase its revenue. Also with the strong
parentage like M&M and its agriculture network will work as a booster for the expansion in
revenue.
Rs Mn
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Jain Irrigation
Netafim
EPC Industries
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
No. of Dealers
*Netafim Revenue based on FY14 and Jain Irrigation and EPC Industrie revenue based on FY15
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
| Equity research |
Key risk
Raw Material price risk The major raw material for EPC is high, medium and linear low density
polyethylene. Naturally it is exposed to fluctuations in the price of raw material for the
manufacture of MIS products. The manufacture of these raw materials is dependent on crude oil
and the price of crude oil globally determinates the prices of these raw materials. Any fluctuation
in the price of crude oil have significant implications on the financials of the company.
Governments subsidy scheme a major influencing factor. EPCs MIS products are
significantly dependent on the government policies regarding subsidies. Delay in receipt of the
subsidy component would adversely impact its margins. Since the product is subsidized
government withdrawing or reducing subsidy to the farmers and the horticulturists, would
discourage them as they may not be in a position to afford micro irrigation systems.
Growth dependant on Government policies Government is the main force behind this
industry growth so far. Any reduction in government budgetary outlays for agriculture or
irrigation could impact the sector. However with the current policy under PMKSY has opened up
huge opportunity for this sector. MI has gained traction among the farmer community due to the
proven benefits like Water savings and crop yield improvements when compared to traditional
irrigation methods.
Competition Presently the market is dominated by Jain irrigation followed by Netafim. There
are other players like finolex and recently Godrej industries have made a foray in to the market.
While this augurs well for the growth of the sector, it also poses a threat to the margins of
established players. No corporate governance issue with company unlike its established
competitors.
| Equity research |
Valuation:
We believe with the PMKSY project, the government is planning to open an
opportunity of Rs 500bn for irrigation sector. Even though EPC retain its current
market share of 5.5% can get an opportunity of Rs 27.5bn which is a huge potential
for the company.
At CMP of Rs 164, the stock trades at PE of 37.8x/20.8x/10x of FY16/17/18e
respectively. We initiate the stock with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 313.
(20x of FY18e).
5-Apr-15
5-Jul-14
5-Apr-14
5-Jan-14
5-Oct-13
5-Jul-13
5-Apr-13
5-Jan-13
5-Oct-12
5-Jul-12
5-Apr-12
5-Jan-12
5-Oct-11
5-Jul-11
5-Apr-11
5-Jan-11
5-Oct-10
PE(x)
5-Jan-15
Current = 17x
6 yr mean = 58.2x
5-Oct-14
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5-Jul-10
(x)
Avg
Sales
PAT
Rs (mn) Rs (mn)
EPS
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
Jain Irrigation
60508
55
12.77
13.63
13.99
1.21
4.36
6.83
EPC Industrie
1,683
1.9
7.3
8.2
0.3
4.2
7.5
PE (x)
ROE (%)
Rs/share
Rs (bn)
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
71
6.6
58.8
16.3
10.4
2.6
8.6
12.4
163
4.5
503.2
39.3
21.6
0.8
8.8
13.4
| Equity research |
10
Financial Summary
Revenue boost possible with PMKSY scheme: EPC has grew by ~18% CAGR over FY09FY15. EPC currently enjoy market share of ~5.5% in irrigation sector. With the PMKSY (Pradhan
Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana) scheme the government has allocated Rs 500bn over five years.
This scheme will give huge potential to the companies under irrigation sector. Even though we
maintain EPCs current market share of ~5.5%, the potential only to EPC works out to be Rs
27.5bn over next 5 years. However, we expect EPCs revenue to grow at a CAGR of 52% over
FY15-18e.
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
80
40
20
(%)
60
Revenue
FY18e
FY17e
FY16e
FY15
FY14
FY13
(20)
FY12
Rs. Mn
Growth %
500
8.0
400
6.0
300
4.0
200
(%)
Rs. Mn
Exhibit 15: PAT and PAT margins to improve over economies of scale
2.0
100
0.0
FY13
FY14
PAT
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
FY18e
PAT margin%
| Equity research |
11
EBITDA margins to expand by 661bps: EPC posted ~1.9% EBITDA margin in FY15 (down
by ~400 bps over FY14) led by change from NMMI (National Mission on Micro Irrigation) to
NMSA (National Mission for Substantial Agriculture) which had a lack of policy clarity across many
states. However, with the PMKSY initiative by the government, we expect EPC to expand its
margin by ~661bps over FY15-18e (Market leader Jain Irrigation enjoys ~12% EBITDA
margins).
Exhibit 16: Margin expansion by ~661 bps over FY15-18e
12
10
8
(%)
Rs. Mn
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4
2
0
FY13
FY14
FY15
EBITDA
FY16e
FY17e
FY18e
EBITDA margin %
25
20
15
10
5
0
ROE
ROCE
| Equity research |
12
WCC to remain high due to nature of business: EPCs WCC was high in FY15 to 120 days
led by change from NMMI (National Mission on Micro Irrigation) to NMSA (National Mission for
Substantial Agriculture) which had a lack of policy clarity across many states. However, EPCs
average WCC remained high (avg. 91 days over FY10-15) as the company works closely with
farmers and the state government. We believe, going forward EPCs WCC will remain in the range
of 80 day due to nature of business.
Exhibit 18: WCC to remain high due to nature of business
140
No fo Days
110
80
50
20
-10
FY13
Debtors Days
FY14
FY15
Inventory Days
FY16e
FY17e
Creditors Days
FY18e
WCC
| Equity research |
13
Company Profile
EPC Industrie is one the pioneers in the Micro Irrigation industry in India backed by the strong
parent M&M Ltd., (M&M acquired 38% equity stake in EPC Industrie in February 2011 and in
June 2012 it raised its stake to 54.8%). EPC is in to manufacturing and sales of Micro Irrigation
System (MIS) consisting of Drip Irrigation System (online drippers, inline drip laterals, plain
laterals, drip fittings, filters, and fertigation equipments) and Sprinkler Irrigation System
(sprinkler irrigation pipes, pipe fittings and sprinkler nozzles. As part of project market sales it
undertakes supply, installation and provision of agronomical services to farmers) It also
manufactures specialized pipes for water and gas distribution as well as pipes required for
industrial and agricultural purposes with complete fitting and installation tools. EPC has 2600
channel partners. It is registered in 17 states of India as approved manufacturer of MIS with
respective state government authorities under the National Mission on Micro Irrigation and Micro
Irrigation Scheme.
EPC s business model is manly categorized into two division 1) open market 2)
project market sales
Open market sales: Sales through open market secures receipt of a majority of the sale
proceeds of MIS upfront from the (intermediaries) channel partners. The channel partners in turn
sell the MIS to the customer/ farmer whereby subsidy disbursement exposure is taken by the
channel partners or the customers. Consequently, a majority of inventory costs and working
capital requirements is funded by its channel partners under the open market sales model.
Project market sales: EPC operates under the project market model in the states of Gujarat,
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. As per the requirement of nodal agencies in the states of
Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, EPC enters into an agreement with the farmers, nodal
agencies and with banks, wherever applicable. After the loan tie ups and subsidy eligibility is
approved by the nodal agency in these states, EPC installs MIS and submit its claim for payment
to the nodal agency. Consequently, in the project market, the exposure of subsidy disbursement
is taken by EPC.
Exhibit 19: Key Management
Subhash Modak
COO
Sunil Johnson
Anant Kshirsagar
| Equity research |
14
growth (%)
COGS
FY13
F14
F15
F16e
F17e
F18e
1,614
1,747
1,683
2,289
3,548
5,890
29.1
8.3
(3.7)
36.0
55.0
66.0
1,057
1,143
1,075
1,442
2,217
3,592
Staff Cost
151
181
197
268
416
691
R&D Cost
330
320
380
412
625
1,019
76
103
31
167
290
588
SG&A Cost
EBITDA
growth (%)
(23)
36
(69)
430
74
103
Depreciation
25
28
27
29
31
32
EBIT
50
75
137
260
556
Other income
28
26
26
28
31
34
25
24
12
13
13
13
53
77
18
153
278
578
Tax
38
70
144
Minority interest
53
77
115
209
433
Interest paid
Extraordinary/Exceptional
items
PBT
PAT
Non-recurring items
Adjusted PAT
growth (%)
53
77
115
209
433
(20)
44
(88)
1,182
82
108
FY13
F14
F15
F16e
F17e
F18e
381
242
270
527
513
336
692
1,003
891
1,009
1,407
2,310
Investments
Net fixed assets
Goodwill
314
322
302
297
292
285
88
95
61
59
59
59
1,475
1,662
1,524
1,893
2,270
2,990
Current liabilities
253
481
359
420
587
872
Borrowings
Other non-current
liabilities
Total liabilities
130
37
43
16
18
20
22
420
532
380
442
611
898
276
276
276
276
276
276
Share capital
779
854
868
1,174
1,382
1,815
Shareholders' funds
1,056
1,130
1,144
1,451
1,659
2,092
Total liabilities
1,475
1,662
1,524
1,893
2,270
2,990
| Equity research |
15
FY13
F14
53
Depreciation
27
F15
F16e
F17e
F18e
77
115
209
433
30
27
29
31
32
(104)
(84)
(2)
(53)
(229)
(616)
(24)
23
34
91
11
(151)
(52)
(38)
(8)
(25)
(25)
(25)
(52)
(38)
(8)
(25)
(25)
(25)
(76)
(15)
26
66
(14)
(176)
Issue of shares
104
(99)
(122)
(4)
(1)
(1)
(1)
300
(2)
192
305
(124)
192
(0)
(0)
229
(139)
28
257
(15)
(176)
FY13
F14
F15
F16e
F17e
F18e
EPS
1.9
2.8
0.3
4.2
7.5
15.7
CEPS
2.9
3.8
1.3
5.2
8.7
16.8
DPS
BV
0.0
0.0
0.0
38.2
40.9
41.4
52.5
60.0
75.7
25.2
24.2
24.4
25.3
25.8
27.3
Operating margins
4.7
5.9
1.9
7.3
8.2
10.0
Net margins
3.3
4.4
0.5
5.0
5.9
7.4
64.9
36.8
499.5
39.5
21.7
10.5
3.3
2.5
3.9
3.1
2.7
2.2
42.4
25.3
133.7
24.0
13.9
7.1
EV/Sales
2.0
1.5
2.5
1.7
1.1
0.7
RoE
6.5
7.1
0.8
8.8
13.4
23.1
RoCE
7.5
8.4
1.3
9.4
13.8
23.3
RoIC
(0)
10
18
28
EV/EBITDA
| Equity research |
16
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Disclaimer
BUY. We expect the stock to deliver >15% absolute returns.
HOLD. We expect the stock to deliver 5-15% absolute returns.
SELL. We expect the stock to deliver <5% absolute returns.
Not Rated (NR). We have no investment opinion on the stock.
The BoB Capital Markets research team hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views
about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly
or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."
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