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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
09 MAY 13 MAY 2016

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold was enjoying a substantial jump on Friday, after a disappointing jobs report
made traders more skeptical about the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising rates
in the near future.
The Bureau of Labor Services reported Friday that 160,000 jobs were created in April,
missing economists' expectations and sending a signal that the American economy is
not as strong as has been anticipated.
The perception that the Fed would be reticent to raise rates sent short-term Treasury
yields sinking Friday, and helped gold. The yellow metal tends to dislike rate hikes,
since higher rates mean that non yielding gold becomes a less attractive investment
as compared to bonds.

Why the jobs

report could spur
the next bull
market in gold.

"Gold is reacting positively to the jobs number, so with record high open interest for
the year in gold," the metal is expected "to finally close over $1,300."If expectations
for rate hikes continue to be pushed into the future, gold could manage to add to its
22 percent rally for 2016.
Oil prices climbed in Asia today with Brent breaching $45 a barrel as raging wildfires
threatened to cut Canadian output and a decline in US crude production also boosted
the commodity.
Authorities say wildfires are burning out of control in the Alberta oil sands region of
Canada, which mines and ships heavy crude south to the US market, and oil
companies have reduced operations to facilitate the evacuation of non- essential
employees.
News of the Canada fires came as official data showed that US oil output sank last
week by more than 100,000 barrels a day to 8.83 million barrels per day, its lowest
level since September 2014.While US commercial crude oil inventories rose in the
same week, investors focused more on hopes the production decline would help ease
the global supply glut. Strong decline in US shale output will underpin the beginning
of a two-year market rebalancing whereby prices will recover gradually over the next
few quarters.
London copper steadied on Friday but was heading for its largest weekly loss since
early 2015, after a plunge in steel and iron ore prices this week sped a pull back across
the metals sector on worries over Chinas economy and a stronger dollar.
A protracted slowdown in Chinas factory activity doused hopes an economic revival
was gaining strength this week, pouring cold water on a rally across commodities.
Moves by Chinese regulators to prick a speculative bubble fostered a collapse in steel
and iron ore prices, and related metals in the sector such as nickel, used in stainless
steel, have also declined as a result.
Good macro data in (Chinas) property sector and infrastructure investment may
come through a lot more strongly than people think. Keeping up pressure on metals,
the dollar held gains against the yen and euro early on Friday ahead of the April US
non-farm payrolls due later in the day that could support the greenback and ramp up
pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Copper dropped to the lowest in more
than two weeks as metals retreated on concern that weak demand in China, the
worlds largest user, points to persistent supply gluts.

Oil prices up as
Canada wildfires
threaten crude
output.

London copper
set for largest
weekly loss in 15
months.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

May 9 9th-12th

Mortgage Delinquencies

4.77%

7:30pm

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

-2.1

May 10 3:30pm

NFIB Small Business Index

93.2

92.6

7:30pm

JOLTS Job Openings

5.55M

5.45M

7:30pm

Wholesale Inventories m/m

0.2%

-0.5%

May 11 8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

2.8M

10:31pm

10-y Bond Auction

1.77/2.8

11:30pm

Federal Budget Balance

116.2B

-108.0B

May 12 6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

277K

274K

6:00pm

Import Prices m/m

0.6%

0.2%

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

9:15pm

FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

10:31pm

30-y Bond Auction

11:00pm

FOMC Member George Speaks

6:00pm

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

0.2%

6:00pm

PPI m/m

0.3%

-0.1%

6:00pm

Retail Sales m/m

-0.3%

-0.3%

6:00pm

Core PPI m/m

0.1%

-0.1%

7:30pm

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

89.9

89.0

7:30pm

Business Inventories m/m

0.2%

-0.1%

7:30pm

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

68B

2.60/2.4

2.8%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX
GOLD
showed
sideways
movement, in last trading sessions it
pull back from important level of
29900 and made a new high of 30420
and closed around it. Now, if it
continues bullish movement on higher
side then it may find strong resistance
of 30750 and on lower side 29850 will
act as major support level below which
next support will seen around 29500.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 30600 for the targets of 3100031300, with stop loss of 29900.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

29750

28980

28250

30750

31565

32465

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed
sideways to bearish movement and
traded above its weekly resistance
level and also near to upper band of
weekly channel pattern. Now, for
upcoming sessions 42750 will act as
strong resistance level for it, if it
maintain above it then 44000 will be
next resistance level. On the other
hand 41000 will act as vital support
level.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 41000 for
the target of 39500, with stop loss of
43000.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

41500

40135

38500

43000

44300

45500

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed strong bullish
movement last week and break its
important resistance level of 3000 on
daily chart and closed around it. Now,
3115 is act as vital resistance for it
above which it may find next
resistance around 3300. On lower side,
some correction will drag it towards
the support level of 2800.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2890 for the target of 2750,
with stop loss of 3150.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2850

2700

2600

3115

3260

3420

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement in all trading session and
reverted from neckline of inverse head
and shoulder pattern and found the
support of 318. Now, 327 will act as
immediate resistance level for it,if it
maintain above this then 340 will act
as next resistance level. And on the
other hand 318 will be major supprt
level below which it may drag upto
support level of 310.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 328, with stop loss of 318 for the
target of 338.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

316.40

311

305.50

324.85

330

335

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