Professional Documents
Culture Documents
position limits
affect metal
trading strategies
Global Mining & Metals
March 2016
Contents
Position limits: potential ramifications
What next?
10
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Executive summary
The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2 regulation
(MiFID 2) will represent a series of potential challenges for
both financial and non-financial entities engaged in commodity
derivatives upon its proposed1 introduction on 3 January 2018.
A key aspect of the regulation is the introduction of an ambitious
position limits regime that will apply across energy, metals,
agriculture, freight and related derivatives. If implemented as
proposed, this regime will dwarf any other in force globally.
Although precise rules have yet to be finalized by European
lawmakers, there is little analysis on how MiFID 2 position limits
may affect underlying revenues and trading strategies, beyond the
internal controls needed to comply.
This paper provides a brief introduction on how this may affect
trading and future physical flows. Focusing on metals trading, it
sketches out what this may mean for both affected non-financial
firms (NFs) and existing MiFID-regulated entities that do not qualify
for exemptions under the regime.
This paper does not consider the potential ramifications from the United Kingdoms referendum on continued EU membership in June 2016,
which may affect how MiFID II is subsequently applied.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Parent A
0 lots
Subsidiary B
+40 lots
Subsidiary D
10 lots
Results
No single entity in breach (<50 lot exposure)
Parent is in breach (0+40+3010 = 60)
Subsidiary C
+30 lots
Note: Based on example presented at the FCA MiFID II wholesale firms conference 2015.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
ased on the change in the value of assets, services, inputs, products, commodities or liabilities that the non-financial entity or its group owns, produces, manufactures,
B
processes, provides, purchases, merchandises, leases, sells, or incurs in the normal course of its business (Article 7, 1(a), Chapter 6: commodity derivatives RTS 20:
draft regulatory technical standards on criteria for establishing when an activity is to be considered to be ancillary to the main business, EC).
7
An example would be the Financial Conduct Authority for the United Kingdom.
8
Although only MiFID-regulated firms (e.g., banks) will be required to report their positions to the NCA (e.g., on behalf of an NF).
9
Operated by an investment firm or entity which brings a series of buyers/sellers of financial instrument(s) together, resulting in contract-based transactions.
10
Neither a regulated market or MTF but that which brings multiple buyers/sellers together with interests in bonds, structured finance products, emission allowances, or
derivatives, resulting in contract-based transactions. Specific venues remain to be defined but extended to exchange traded derivatives as well as OTCs.
11
But extended to exchange traded derivatives as well as OTCs.
6
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
For all other maturities, this is based on 25% of total open interest
across all maturities, subject to the same adjustment by the
relevant authority. In the event rolling these maturities into spotmonth positions engenders any issue with delivery, then spot limits
may be tapered down until eventual maturity.
The table below provides some initial context into current base
metal open interest volumes.
Aluminium
SHFE*
CME Group
Total OI
Lot size
(tonnes)
Total metal
(tonnes)
Total OI
Lot size
(tonnes)
Total metal
(tonnes)
Total OI
Lot size
(tonnes)
Total metal
(tonnes)
Total global
metal
(tonnes)
1,093,282
25
27,332,050
783,358
3,916,790
142
25
3,550
31,252,390
Copper
441,963
25
11,049,075
751,602
3,758,010
182,597
11
2,063,346
16,870,431
Zinc
421,771
25
10,554,275
433,706
2,168,530
24
25
600
12,713,405
Lead
181,469
25
4,536,725
29,806
149,030
4,685,755
Nickel
310,410
1,862,460
470,808
470,808
2,333,268
20,990
104,950
4,036
4,036
108,986
Tin
Note: data between 2327 November 2015 and sourced from the respective exchanges.
*SHFE = Shanghai Futures Exchange
12
Reference to the average monthly amount of the underlying commodity available for delivery over the one-year period immediately preceding the determination, Draft
RTS 21, Article 10; Regulatory technical and implementing standards, MiFID II/MiFIR, 28 September 2015.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
This does not consider total daily volumes traded, which may serve
as a crude proxy for deliverable supply and can be significant
relative to annual production levels. This is illustrated by Q3 2015
flows reported on the LME below:
Should limits be set toward the bottom end of their range, it may
impact efforts to improve price formation and liquidity beyond
three months.
Lot size
(tonnes)
Total metal
(tonnes)
Aluminium
249,315
25
6,232,875
Copper
168,446
25
4,211,150
Zinc
119,369
25
2,984,225
Lead
53,088
25
1,327,200
Nickel
82,071
492,426
9,261
N/A
N/A
Others
Buy 5
tonnes
Buy 5
tonnes
One-month copper price:
US$ 5,000/t
12-month copper price:
US$7,000/t
11-month storage, interest and
insurance cost: US$500/t
Position limit: 5 tonnes for
front delivery and all other
maturities, respectively
Trading strategy
Buy/sell 5 tonnes
Profit = tonnesmargin
5(7,0005,000500) =
US$7,500
Position limit
Front contract: limit =
5 tonnes = met
Other maturities: limit =
5 tonnes = met
Buy 5
tonnes
Buy 5
tonnes
Section 7.3, Final Report ESMAs Technical Advice to the Commission on MiFID II and MiFIR, December 2014.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Trading strategies
By aiming to curtail speculation, these measures may constrain
the ability to act or anticipate market movements beyond given
position limits, if trading on an EEA-based Venue.
This may impact the earnings of marketing arms to varying
degrees, unless steps can be taken to avoid such limits (e.g.,
trading through Venues outside of the EEA). These earning losses
may be offset by trading upside from pricing volatility.
Further ramifications are subject to conjecture and depend on
the definition of economic equivalency, whereby EE OTCs
can be netted off with contracts traded on recognized Venues.
While MiFID 2 recognizes EE OTCs as contracts with similar
characteristics to those on exchanges, it is clear on the need for
applying this in limited circumstances14 to prevent questionable
trades from circumventing position limits.
What follows will also be contingent on such transactions not
being considered as a hedge,15 which could vary across entity and
Paragraph (6), p.405, RTS 21: draft regulatory technical standards on methodology for the calculation and the application of position limits for commodity derivatives
traded on trading Venues and economically equivalent OTC contracts; Chapter 6: commodity derivatives, ESMA.
15
Note: hedging will only benefit NFs (and not existing MiFID-regulated entities) toward offsetting any position limit.
16
As such transactions may not qualify as being for commercial purposes given the arbitrage being acted upon, they may have regard to derivative instruments which are
cash-settled and cleared through recognized clearing houses.
14
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
3. Blending
4. Economics
5,900kcal* = USUS$100/t
Buys 5t of 5,900kcal
5,500kcal = USUS$80/t
Buys 5t of 5,100kcal
5,100kcal* = US$50/t
Blending=5,500kcal
Sells 10t of API 5
Note: Ignores freight cost and assumes other specification characteristics are identical for simplicity.
* Non-API coal
17
Geography
Position limits will not apply to non-EEA exchange contracts, which
may encourage traders to store metal in warehouses approved by
such exchanges (e.g., Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)) where
these warrants can then be traded. It may also see non-exchange
storage continue to develop in the EEA, with sales subsequently
arranged bilaterally rather than through the transfer of exchange
warrants, to the detriment of volumes on Venues like the LME.
This is significant, as it could diminish open interest on trading
Venues by which position limits are established, undermining
future liquidity. It may become self-fulfilling, with lower volumes
reducing the size of future position limits, pushing volumes away
from EEA Venues to preserve trading flows among NFs.
Insofar as supplier, form (e.g., cathode, briquette, ingot), specification, dimensions, etc.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Financing
Access to trade finance is unlikely to be affected, regardless of
whether an entitys operations fall under MiFID 2. Existing MiFID
regulations already apply to EU financial institutions, which has
prompted a reduction in the availability of trade finance as banks
balance increased costs against return on equity requirements.
With Dodd-Frank affecting US lending capacity, both non-US and
non-EU banks are likely to have growing capacity (though varying
in appetite) to support such activities in future.
18
This will also depend on a series of other factors besides price (e.g., exchange rate, warehousing rules, legal enforcement).
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Risk management
Should liquidity become constrained across the curve, and/or
bid-ask spreads increase, then value-at-risk models (or any other
stochastic at risk models) will need to be reassessed. With these
dependent on historical volatility to determine risk limits, the
implementation of MiFID 2 could represent a structural break with
past experience, potentially reducing the effectiveness of such
risk management tools without adjustment as the new normal
is established.
If non-exchange warehousing becomes increasingly prominent,
then structuring agreements where risk can clearly be apportioned
between warehouse owner, lender and borrower will be important.
This surrounds title over any metal, while incorporating safeguards
to prevent multiple pledging of warrants. Though unlikely to be
problematic within the EEA, this could affect non-LME storage
strategies in emerging markets, with less rigorous inspection or
enforcement systems.
The latter may be assisted by LME Shield, which launched in pilot
form during December 2015. This is intended to provide a tracking
system of non-LME stored metal. Though it is unclear how this will
be implemented in practice, it is unlikely to be any cheaper than if
stored within the LMEs network.
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
What next?
The options available with regard to responding to position limits
can be divided broadly along three lines:
How will this affect return on equity among trading houses, the
level of competition and underlying liquidity for commodities
among EEA-based trading Venues?
Contributors
Karim Awad
Senior strategic analyst Mining and
Metals, UKI
Tel: +44 20 7951 9474
Email: kawad@uk.ey.com
Shane Henley
Commodities Markets Director, UKI
Tel: +44 20 7951 9501
Email: shenley@uk.ey.com
10
Andrew Woosey
Commodities Markets Partner, UKI
Lee Downham
Metal and Mining Global Transaction Leader
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
Appendix: MiFID
financial instruments
The below highlights those instruments recognized under the
MiFID directive, with (5), (6), (7) and (10) applicable to those
trading commodities:
Transferable securities
Money-market instruments
Units in collective investment undertakings
Options, futures, swaps, forward rate agreements and any
other derivative contracts relating to securities, currencies,
interest rates or yields, or other derivatives instruments,
financial indices or financial measures which may be settled
physically or in cash
Options, futures, swaps, forward rate agreements and any
other derivative contracts relating to commodities that must
be settled in cash or may be settled in cash at the option of one
of the parties (otherwise than by reason of a default or other
termination event)
Options, futures, swaps, and any other derivative contract
relating to commodities that can be physically settled provided
that they are traded on a regulated market and/or an MTF
MiFID 2: how position limits affect metal trading strategies Global Mining & Metals
11
Area contacts
Global Mining & Metals
Leader
Miguel Zweig
T: +55 11 2573 3363
E: miguel.zweig@br.ey.com
Oceania
Scott Grimley
T: +61 3 9655 2509
E: scott.grimley@au.ey.com
Japan
Andrew Cowell
T: + 81 3 3503 3435
E: cowell-ndrw@shinnihon.or.jp
Africa
Wickus Botha
T: +27 11 772 3386
E: wickus.botha@za.ey.com
Commonwealth of
Independent States
Evgeni Khrustalev
T: +7 495 648 9624
E: evgeni.khrustalev@ru.ey.com
France, Luxemburg,
Maghreb, MENA
Christian Mion
T: +33 1 46 93 65 47
E: christian.mion@fr.ey.com
India
Anjani Agrawal
T: +91 22 6192 0150
E: anjani.agrawal@in.ey.com
United States
Andy Miller
T: +1 314 290 1205
E: andy.miller@ey.com
Canada
Bruce Sprague
T: +1 604 891 8415
E: bruce.f.sprague@ca.ey.com
Brazil
Afonso Sartorio
T: +55 11 2573 3074
E: afonso.sartorio@br.ey.com
Chile
Mara Javiera Contreras
T: +562 2676 1492
E: maria.javiera.contreras@cl.ey.com
ey.com