Probability (A/L-Combined Mathematics)

The events A and B are such that P(A)

Find

2.

(i)

P(AB)

(ii)

P(AB)

(iii)

P(A/B)

1
3

= , P(B) =

2
5

, and P(A/B) =

11
20

, where B is the complementary event of B.

The events A and B are such that P(A) = x + 0.2, P(B) = 2x + 0.1 and P(AB) = x.
(i) If P(AB) = 0.7, find the value of x.
(ii) Verify that the events A and B are independent.
(iii) Find P(A/B), where B is the complementary event of B.

3.

Let A and B be two events such that P(A) =

8
15

, P(B) =

1
3

and P(A/B) =

1
5

Find the probability that

(i) both events occur,
(ii) only one of the two events occurs.
(iii) neither event occurs.
4.

In a street, there are two parking lots, each of which can accommodate only one vehicle. The probability that a parking lot is empty at 9.00
am on Monday is 0.3. Find the probability that, at 9.00 am on a Monday,
(i) neither of the parking lots is empty ,
(ii) at least one of the parking lots is empty,
(iii) both parking lots are empty.

5.

Neela and Mala enter a cake competition. The probability that Neela wins a prize is

1
6

and that for Mala is

2
7

Assuming that the two events are independent, find the probability that
(i) Either Neela or Mala, but not both, wins a prize,
(ii) at least one of them wins a prize.
6.

An engineer examines the operation of three groups of devices: 20% of all the devices in group A, 30% of all the devices in group B and
50% of all the devices in group C are examined. The probabilities of failure of a device in each of the three groups are 0.002, 0.003 and
0.005 respectively.
(i) Find the probability that a failure in a device will occur in any of those groups.
(ii) If a failure in a device is observed, find the probability that device would have come from group A.

7.

A box contains 6 identical balls out of which 5 are black and other is white. Anil and Bimal are engaged in a game where a ball is selected
randomly from the box at a time which each player taking alternate turns. The person who select the white ball first will be the winner of
the game Anil starts the game Assuming that the selected ball is not replaced after each draw, construct the tree diagram that indicate how
Bimal wins the game,
The game is now redefined so that the selected ball is replaced after each attempt.
Find the probability that Anil wins the game
(i) in his first attempt,
(ii) in his third attempt
(iii) eventually
Deduce the probability that Bimal wins the game eventually. Verify your answer by an independent method.

8.

Drivers are classified by an insurance company as low, average or high risk drivers. The company estimates that at present they have 25%
low, 60% average and 15% high risk drivers in their records. The probabilities of such drivers encountering a given number of accidents
during a year are indicated in the following table.

Number of Accidents per

year

0
1
2
3
4

Low
x
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00

Risk
Average
0.93
y
0.01
0.00
0.00

High
0.74
0.10
z
0.01
0.00

(i) Find the appropriate values of x, y and z.

(ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected driver had no accidents in the year.
(iii) If A had no accidents in the year, find the probability that he is a high risk driver.
(iv) If B had no accidents for 4 such years, find the probability that he is a low risk driver.
9.

An electronic system has 3 components R, S and T which work independently. The probabilities that the components R, S and T work
during a year are 0.95, 0.90 and 0.93 respectively.
(i) If the system is designed so that at least two components must work for the system to function, find the probability that the
system will work during a year.
(ii) If the system is redesigned so that it functions as long as at least one component is working, find the probability that the
system will work during a year.

8.

Deduce the probability that Bimal wins the game eventually. Verify your answer by an independent method.
Drivers are classified by an insurance company as low, average or high risk drivers. The company estimates that at present they have 25%
low, 60% average and 15% high risk drivers in their records. The probabilities of such drivers encountering a given number of accidents
during a year are indicated in the following table.

0
1
2
3
4

Number of Accidents per

year

Low
x
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00

Risk
Average
0.93
y
0.01
0.00
0.00

High
0.74
0.10
z
0.01
0.00

(i) Find the appropriate values of x, y and z.

(ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected driver had no accidents in the year.
(iii) If A had no accidents in the year, find the probability that he is a high risk driver.
(iv) If B had no accidents for 4 such years, find the probability that he is a low risk driver.
10.

Let A and B be two exhaustive events in a sample space (that is A B = ).

2
5

If P(A) =

and P(AB) =

1
3

, find (i) P(B), (ii) P(A/B), (iii) P(A/B), where A and B are the complementary events of A and B

respectively.

11.

( 2011 New)

Two friends attempt independently to solve a problem; their probabilities of success being

1
3

and

1
4

. Find the probability that

(i) both of them, (ii) none of them, will succeed in solving the problem.
(2011 New)
12.

(a) Let A and B be two events. Define P(A/B), the conditional probability of A given B.
State the relationship between A and B when (i) P(A/B) = 0, (ii) P(A/B) = P(A).
(b) Three friends, Wimal, Nimal and Piyal go to a restaurant to buy lunch packets. Packets of rice with meat, or with fish or with
vegetables are available in the restaurant. Wimal, who does not eat meat, tosses a fair coin to decide whether to buy a packet of rice with
fish or vegetables. Observing this, Nimal also tosses a fair coin to decide between meat and fish. Piyal tosses a fair coin to decide whether
to buy a vegetable packet or a packet of other two kinds. In the latter case he tosses the coin again to decide between meat and fish.
Find the probability that
(i) Wimal and Nimal buy the same kind of packets.
(ii) Nimal and Piyal buy the same kind of packets.
(iii) All three buy same kind of packets.
(iv)Wimal, Nimal and Piyal buy different kinds of packets.
(c) A student sits a multiple choice examination in which each question has 5 possible answers out of which only one is correct. If the
student knows the answer he selects the correct answer. Otherwise, he selects one answer at random from the 5 possible answers. Suppose
that the student knows the correct answer to 70% of the questions.
(i) Find the probability that, for a given question, the student selects the correct answer.

(ii) If the student selects the correct answer to a question, find the conditional probability that he knows the answer

(Ans:

1
4

1
4

1
16

1
4

(2007)
13.

(a) Let A and B be two events.

Define each of the following statements:
(i) Events A and B are independent.
(ii) Events A and B are mutually exclusive.
(iii) Events A and B are exhaustive.
Let the complementary events of A and B be denoted by A and B respectively.
Show that P(AB) +P(AB) = P(A)

Given that P(A) =

1
2

, P(B) =

1
3

and P(AB) =

1
2

, find the value of P(AB) and the value of P(AB).

(b) Let A and B be two events with P(B)>0.

State the connection between the conditional probability of A given B, denoted by P(A/B) , with P(AB) and P(B).

A student goes to school either by bicycle or by bus. The probability that he will arrive early or on time is

19
28

. The probability that he

will arrive late given that he cycled to school, is twice the probability that he will arrive late given that he travelled by bus. Whenever he

travels to school by bus, the probability that he will arrive early or on time is

3
4

. Find the probability that, on a randomly chosen day

(i) he cycled to school.

(ii) he will have travelled by bus, given that he arrives late.

(Ans:

2
7

5
9

( 2008)
14.

Let A and B be two events with P(A)>0.

Define P(B/A), the conditional probability of B given A.
For three events A, B and C show that P(ABC) = P(A)P(B/A)P(C/AB) provided P(A)>0 and P(AB)>0,
Let {B1,B2,B3} be a partition of a sample space and let A be any event of .

P ( B1 ) P (A /B i)
Show that P(Bi/A) =

P ( B1 ) P ( A / B1)+ P ( B2 ) P( A /B 2)+ P ( B 3 ) P( A / B 3)

for i = 1, 2, 3.

Vehicles approaching a crossroad must go in one of the three directions : left, right or straight on. Observations of traffic engineers reveal
that of vehicles approaching from the west ; 50% turn left. 20% turn right and the rest to go straight on. Assuming that the driver of each
vehicle chooses direction independently, find the probability that of the next three vehicles, approaching the crossroad from the west,
(i)

all go straight on.

(ii)

all go In the same direction.

(iii)

two turn right and one turn left.

(iv)

all go in different directions.

If the three consecutive vehicles, all go in the same direction, show that most of the time they all turn left.
(Ans:0.027, 0.16, 0.06, 0.18 )
(2009)

15.

Let A and B be any two events. Let A and B be the complementary events of A and B respectively. Prove that, P(AB) = P(A) P(AB).
Hence, show that P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
If A and B are independent events, show that
(i) A and B
(ii) A and B are independent.
Past information reveals that the regular batsman X or the regular bowler Y of the Sri Lankan team has a chance of sustaining an injury
prior to an international one-day series. The probability of X sustaining such an injury is 0.2 and that for Y is 0.1. The injuries may occur
independently of each other. The events N, A B and AB are defined as follows:
N : neither X nor Y sustains an injury.

A : only X sustains an injury,

B : only Y sustains an injury,

AB : X and Y sustain injuries.

Show that, P(N) = 0.72, P(A) = 0.18, P(B) = 0.08 and P(AB) = 0.02.
The conditional probabilities of Sri Lankan team winning a series, losing a series or ending a series in a draw for given event N, A, B or
AB are shown in the table, where the cell (U,V) in the table represents P(V/U), the conditional probability of V given U.
Event
(U)
N
A
B
AB
(i)

Win
0.9
0.5
0.7
0.3

Result of a series (V)

Lose
Draw
0.08
0.02
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.1

Drawing an appropriate tree diagram or otherwise, find the probability that the Sri Lankan team will win the
forthcoming series.

(iii) Given that the Sri Lankan team has lost a series, find the conditional probability that Y had an injury prior to the series.
(Ans:0.8, 0.1 )
2010)

(A/L

16.

(a) Let A and B be any two events of a sample space .

Prove that P(AB) = P(A) P(AB) where B is the complementary event of B.
Define P(A/B), the conditional probability of A given B.
Show that P(A/B) = 1 P(A/B), where A is the complementary event of A.

5
12

(b) Given that the two events A and B are such that P(A) =

1
8

, P(AB) =

and P(A/B) =

7
12

where B is the

complementary event of B.
Find

(i) P(AB),

(ii) P(B), (iii) P(AB).

(c) Gayani, the daughter of a wealthy jeweler is about to get married. Her father decides that as a wedding present she can select one of
the similar boxes; one containing two real diamonds and a worthless imitation, and the other box containing one real diamond and two
worthless imitations. Her father allows Gayani to select, a box at random first and then a stone at random from the selected box and, to
examine whether it is a real diamond. The daughter agreed with the condition that she will get the selected box if the examined stone is a
diamond, and will get the other box otherwise. Find the probability that Gayani will get the box with two real diamonds as her wedding
present.
17.

(A/L- 2011 Old)

Nimal, Sunil and Piyal play a game with a biased coin which has probability p of landing a head. Nimal, Sunil and Piyal in that order toss
the coin in turns. The first person who gets a tail will win the game.
Find the probability that Nimal wins the game in his
(i) second turn.

(ii) third turn.

Hence, find the probability that Nimal wins the game eventually.
Deduce that, if the coin is more likely to land tails than heads, Nimal has more than 50% chance of winning the game.
(Ans:

p3 ( 1p )

( 1 p ) p 6

1
1+ p+ p2

(2011 New)
18.

An urn contains 5 white, 3 black and 7 red similar balls. Three balls are taken from the urn at random without replacement.
Find the probability that,
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)

All three balls are black,

None of the three balls is white,
At least one ball is white,
The balls are of different colours,

(v)

The three balls are taken in the order black, red and white.

(Ans:

1
455

24
91

67
91

3
13

1
26

(2012)
19.

According to a survey of 100 students of a school who sat for a certain examination it was revealed that 48 students have passed the
examination. Also it was revealed that out of these 100 students; 50 students have participated in sports activities in the school, 30 students
have participated in musical activities in the school and none of the students have participated in both sports and musical activities.
Furthermore, of those have participated in sports activities in the school 60% have passed the examination and of those who have not
participated in sports activities or musical activities in the school 30% have passed the examination.
A student is selected at random from the above 100 students.

Find the probability that this student

i). has passed the examination given that he has participated in musical activities in the school.
ii). has participated in sports activities in the school given that he has passed the examination. (Ans:

2
5

5
8

(2013)
20.

Let A and B be two events of a sample space with P(B)>0. Define P(A/B), the conditional probability of A given B.
Show that, P(A)=P(B).P(A/B)+P(B).P(A/B), where 0<P(B)<1 and B denotes the complement event of B.
In a large company, 80% of the employees are male and 20% are female. The highest education qualification of the employees is G.C.E.
(O.L. ) and that of 32% is G.C.E.(A.L.). All the other employees are graduates. Of the female employees in the company the highest
education qualification of 40% is G.C.E.(O.L. ) and that of 45% is G.C.E.(A.L.). An employee is selected at random from the employees of
the company. Find the probability of each of the events that this employee is,
(i).

a female and G.C.E.(O.L.) as the highest educational qualification.

(ii).

a male and G.C.E.(O.L.) as the highest educational qualification.

(iii).

a graduate given that the employee is a male.

(iv).

A female given that the employee is not a graduate.

(2014)
21.

A man makes a risky journey along a definite route, by using only one of the three modes of transfort: motor cycle, bicycle or on foot.
If the probabilities of the man using these modes of transfort are p, 2p and 3p respectively, find the value of p.
If the probabilities of occurring an accident when he uses these modes of transport are 1/5, 1/10 and 1/20 respectively, calculate the
probability of occurring an accident in a single journey.
If an accident is known to have happened, to the man during the journey, calculate the probability that the man was travelling,
(i) by motor cycle. (ii) by bicycle. (iii) on foot..
Which mode of transport was the safest? Justify your answer. (Ans:

11
120

4
11

4
11

3
11

(2015)
W.M. Janaka Priyalal Wanigasekera (B.Sc/P.G.Dip/M.Sc.)