5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Heuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmaking
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Inpsychology,heuristicsaresimple,efficientruleswhichpeopleoftenusetoformjudgmentsandmake
decisions.Theyarementalshortcutsthatusuallyinvolvefocusingononeaspectofacomplexproblemand
ignoringothers.[1][2][3]Theserulesworkwellundermostcircumstances,buttheycanleadtosystematic
deviationsfromlogic,probabilityorrationalchoicetheory.Theresultingerrorsarecalled"cognitive
biases"andmanydifferenttypeshavebeendocumented.Thesehavebeenshowntoaffectpeople'schoices
insituationslikevaluingahouse,decidingtheoutcomeofalegalcase,ormakinganinvestmentdecision.
Heuristicsusuallygovernautomatic,intuitivejudgmentsbutcanalsobeusedasdeliberatementalstrategies
whenworkingfromlimitedinformation.
CognitivescientistHerbertA.Simonoriginallyproposedthathumanjudgmentsarebasedonheuristics,
takingtheconceptfromthefieldofcomputation.[a]Intheearly1970s,psychologistsAmosTverskyand
DanielKahnemandemonstratedthreeheuristicsthatunderlieawiderangeofintuitivejudgments.These
findingssetinmotiontheHeuristicsandBiases(HB)[4]researchprogram,whichstudieshowpeoplemake
realworldjudgmentsandtheconditionsunderwhichthosejudgmentsareunreliable.Thisresearch
challengedtheideathathumanbeingsarerationalactors,butprovidedatheoryofinformationprocessing
toexplainhowpeoplemakeestimatesorchoices.Thisresearch,whichfirstgainedworldwideattentionin
1974withtheSciencepaper"JudgmentUnderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases",[5]hasguidedalmostall
currenttheoriesofdecisionmaking,[6]andalthoughtheoriginallyproposedheuristicshavebeenchallenged
inthefurtherdebate,thisresearchprogramhaschangedthefieldbypermanentlysettingtheresearch
questions.[7]
This"HeuristicandBias"traditionhasbeencriticizedforbeingtoofocusedonhowheuristicsleadto
errors.[8]However,heuristicscanbeseenasrationalinanunderlyingsense.Accordingtothisperspective,
heuristicsaregoodenoughformostpurposeswithoutbeingtoodemandingonthebrain'sresources.
Anothertheoreticalperspectiveseesheuristicsasfullyrationalinthattheyarerapid,canbemadewithout
fullinformationandcanbeasaccurateasmorecomplicatedprocedures.Byunderstandingtheroleof
heuristicsinhumanpsychology,marketersandotherpersuaderscaninfluencedecisions,suchastheprices
peoplepayforgoodsorthequantitytheybuy.

Contents
1 Types
1.1 Availability
1.2 Representativeness
1.3 Anchoringandadjustment
1.4 Affectheuristic
1.5 Others
2 Theories
2.1 Cognitivelaziness
2.2 Attributesubstitution
2.3 Fastandfrugal
3 Consequences

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

1/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

3 Consequences
3.1 Efficientdecisionheuristics
3.2 "Beautifulisfamiliar"effect
3.3 Judgmentsofmoralityandfairness
4 Seealso
5 Footnotes
6 Citations
7 References
8 Furtherreading
9 Externallinks

Types
Intheirinitialresearch,TverskyandKahnemanproposedthreeheuristicsavailability,representativeness,
andanchoringandadjustment.Subsequentworkhasidentifiedmanymore.Heuristicsthatunderlie
judgmentarecalled"judgmentheuristics".Anothertype,called"evaluationheuristics",areusedtojudge
thedesirabilityofpossiblechoices.[9]

Availability
Inpsychology,availabilityistheeasewithwhichaparticularideacanbebroughttomind.Whenpeople
estimatehowlikelyorhowfrequentaneventisonthebasisofitsavailability,theyareusingtheavailability
heuristic.[10]Whenaninfrequenteventcanbebroughteasilyandvividlytomind,peopletendto
overestimateitslikelihood.[11]Forexample,peopleoverestimatetheirlikelihoodofdyinginadramatic
eventsuchasatornadoorterrorism.Dramatic,violentdeathsareusuallymorehighlypublicisedand
thereforehaveahigheravailability.[12]Ontheotherhand,commonbutmundaneeventsarehardtobringto
mind,sotheirlikelihoodstendtobeunderestimated.Theseincludedeathsfromsuicides,strokes,and
diabetes.Thisheuristicisoneofthereasonswhypeoplearemoreeasilyswayedbyasingle,vividstory
thanbyalargebodyofstatisticalevidence.[13]Itmayalsoplayaroleintheappealoflotteries:tosomeone
buyingaticket,thewellpublicised,jubilantwinnersaremoreavailablethanthemillionsofpeoplewho
havewonnothing.[12]
WhenpeoplejudgewhethermoreEnglishwordsbeginwithTorwithK,theavailabilityheuristicgivesa
quickwaytoanswerthequestion.WordsthatbeginwithTcomemorereadilytomind,andsosubjectsgive
acorrectanswerwithoutcountingoutlargenumbersofwords.However,thisheuristiccanalsoproduce
errors.WhenpeopleareaskedwhethertherearemoreEnglishwordswithKinthefirstpositionorwithK
inthethirdposition,theyusethesameprocess.ItiseasytothinkofwordsthatbeginwithK,suchas
kangaroo,kitchen,orkept.ItishardertothinkofwordswithKasthethirdletter,suchaslake,or
acknowledge,althoughobjectivelythesearethreetimesmorecommon.Thisleadspeopletotheincorrect
conclusionthatKismorecommonatthestartofwords.[14]Inanotherexperiment,subjectsheardthenames
ofmanycelebrities,roughlyequalnumbersofwhomweremaleandfemale.Thesubjectswerethenasked
whetherthelistofnamesincludedmoremenormorewomen.Whenthemeninthelistweremorefamous,
agreatmajorityofsubjectsincorrectlythoughtthereweremoreofthem,andviceversaforwomen.
TverskyandKahneman'sinterpretationoftheseresultsisthatjudgmentsofproportionarebasedon
availability,whichishigherforthenamesofbetterknownpeople.[10]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

2/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Inoneexperimentthatoccurredbeforethe1976U.S.Presidentialelection,someparticipantswereaskedto
imagineGeraldFordwinning,whileothersdidthesameforaJimmyCartervictory.Eachgroup
subsequentlyviewedtheirallocatedcandidateassignificantlymorelikelytowin.Theresearchersfounda
similareffectwhenstudentsimaginedagoodorabadseasonforacollegefootballteam.[15]Theeffectof
imaginationonsubjectivelikelihoodhasbeenreplicatedbyseveralotherresearchers.[13]
Aconcept'savailabilitycanbeaffectedbyhowrecentlyandhowfrequentlyithasbeenbroughttomind.In
onestudy,subjectsweregivenpartialsentencestocomplete.Thewordswereselectedtoactivatethe
concepteitherofhostilityorofkindness:aprocessknownaspriming.Theythenhadtointerpretthe
behaviorofamandescribedinashort,ambiguousstory.Theirinterpretationwasbiasedtowardsthe
emotiontheyhadbeenprimedwith:themorepriming,thegreatertheeffect.Agreaterintervalbetweenthe
initialtaskandthejudgmentdecreasedtheeffect.[16]
TverskyandKahnemanofferedtheavailabilityheuristicasanexplanationforillusorycorrelationsinwhich
peoplewronglyjudgetwoeventstobeassociatedwitheachother.Theyexplainedthatpeoplejudge
correlationonthebasisoftheeaseofimaginingorrecallingthetwoeventstogether.[10][14]

Representativeness
Therepresentativenessheuristicisseenwhenpeopleusecategories,forexamplewhendecidingwhetheror
notapersonisacriminal.Anindividualthinghasahighrepresentativenessforacategoryifitisvery
similartoaprototypeofthatcategory.Whenpeoplecategorisethingsonthebasisofrepresentativeness,
theyareusingtherepresentativenessheuristic."Representative"isheremeantintwodifferentsenses:the
prototypeusedforcomparisonisrepresentativeofitscategory,andrepresentativenessisalsoarelation
betweenthatprototypeandthethingbeingcategorised.[14][17]Whileitiseffectiveforsomeproblems,this
heuristicinvolvesattendingtotheparticularcharacteristicsoftheindividual,ignoringhowcommonthose
categoriesareinthepopulation(calledthebaserates).Thus,peoplecanoverestimatethelikelihoodthat
somethinghasaveryrareproperty,orunderestimatethelikelihoodofaverycommonproperty.Thisis
calledthebaseratefallacy.Representativenessexplainsthisandseveralotherwaysinwhichhuman
judgmentsbreakthelawsofprobability.[14]
Therepresentativenessheuristicisalsoanexplanationofhowpeoplejudgecauseandeffect:whenthey
makethesejudgementsonthebasisofsimilarity,theyarealsosaidtobeusingtherepresentativeness
heuristic.Thiscanleadtoabias,incorrectlyfindingcausalrelationshipsbetweenthingsthatresembleone
anotherandmissingthemwhenthecauseandeffectareverydifferent.Examplesofthisincludeboththe
beliefthat"emotionallyrelevanteventsoughttohaveemotionallyrelevantcauses",andmagicalassociative
thinking.[18]
Ignoranceofbaserates
A1973experimentusedapsychologicalprofileofTomW.,afictionalgraduatestudent.[19]Onegroupof
subjectshadtorateTom'ssimilaritytoatypicalstudentineachofnineacademicareas(includingLaw,
EngineeringandLibraryScience).AnothergrouphadtoratehowlikelyitisthatTomspecialisedineach
area.Iftheseratingsoflikelihoodaregovernedbyprobability,thentheyshouldresemblethebaserates,i.e.
theproportionofstudentsineachofthenineareas(whichhadbeenseparatelyestimatedbyathirdgroup).
Ifpeoplebasedtheirjudgmentsonprobability,theywouldsaythatTomismorelikelytostudyHumanities
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

3/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

thanLibraryScience,becausetherearemanymoreHumanitiesstudents,andtheadditionalinformationin
theprofileisvagueandunreliable.Instead,theratingsoflikelihoodmatchedtheratingsofsimilarityalmost
perfectly,bothinthisstudyandasimilaronewheresubjectsjudgedthelikelihoodofafictionalwoman
takingdifferentcareers.Thissuggeststhatratherthanestimatingprobabilityusingbaserates,subjectshad
substitutedthemoreaccessibleattributeofsimilarity.[19]
Conjunctionfallacy
Whenpeoplerelyonrepresentativeness,theycanfallintoanerrorwhichbreaksafundamentallawof
probability.[17]TverskyandKahnemangavesubjectsashortcharactersketchofawomancalledLinda,
describingheras,"31yearsold,single,outspoken,andverybright.Shemajoredinphilosophy.Asa
student,shewasdeeplyconcernedwithissuesofdiscriminationandsocialjustice,andalsoparticipatedin
antinucleardemonstrations".Peoplereadingthisdescriptionthenrankedthelikelihoodofdifferent
statementsaboutLinda.Amongstothers,theseincluded"Lindaisabankteller",and,"Lindaisabankteller
andisactiveinthefeministmovement".Peopleshowedastrongtendencytoratethelatter,morespecific
statementasmorelikely,eventhoughaconjunctionoftheform"LindaisbothXandY"canneverbemore
probablethanthemoregeneralstatement"LindaisX".Theexplanationintermsofheuristicsisthatthe
judgmentwasdistortedbecause,forthereaders,thecharactersketchwasrepresentativeofthesortof
personwhomightbeanactivefeministbutnotofsomeonewhoworksinabank.Asimilarexercise
concernedBill,describedas"intelligentbutunimaginative".Agreatmajorityofpeoplereadingthis
charactersketchrated"Billisanaccountantwhoplaysjazzforahobby",asmorelikelythan"Billplays
jazzforahobby".[20]
Withoutsuccess,TverskyandKahnemanusedwhattheydescribedas"aseriesofincreasinglydesperate
manipulations"togettheirsubjectstorecognisethelogicalerror.Inonevariation,subjectshadtochoose
betweenalogicalexplanationofwhy"Lindaisabankteller"ismorelikely,andadeliberatelyillogical
argumentwhichsaidthat"Lindaisafeministbankteller"ismorelikely"becausesheresemblesanactive
feministmorethansheresemblesabankteller".Sixtyfivepercentofsubjectsfoundtheillogicalargument
moreconvincing.[20][21]Otherresearchersalsocarriedoutvariationsofthisstudy,exploringthepossibility
thatpeoplehadmisunderstoodthequestion.Theydidnoteliminatetheerror.[22][23]Theerrordisappears
whenthequestionisposedintermsoffrequencies.Everyoneintheseversionsofthestudyrecognisedthat
outof100peoplefittinganoutlinedescription,theconjunctionstatement("SheisXandY")cannotapply
tomorepeoplethanthegeneralstatement("SheisX").[24]
Ignoranceofsamplesize
TverskyandKahnemanaskedsubjectstoconsideraproblemaboutrandomvariation.Imaginingfor
simplicitythatexactlyhalfofthebabiesborninahospitalaremale,theratiowillnotbeexactlyhalfin
everytimeperiod.Onsomedays,moregirlswillbebornandonothers,moreboys.Thequestionwas,does
thelikelihoodofdeviatingfromexactlyhalfdependonwhethertherearemanyorfewbirthsperday?Itisa
wellestablishedconsequenceofsamplingtheorythatproportionswillvarymuchmoredaytodaywhen
thetypicalnumberofbirthsperdayissmall.However,people'sanswerstotheproblemdonotreflectthis
fact.Theytypicallyreplythatthenumberofbirthsinthehospitalmakesnodifferencetothelikelihoodof
morethan60%malebabiesinoneday.Theexplanationintermsoftheheuristicisthatpeopleconsider
onlyhowrepresentativethefigureof60%isofthepreviouslygivenaverageof50%.[14][25]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

4/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Dilutioneffect
RichardE.Nisbettandcolleaguessuggestthatrepresentativenessexplainsthedilutioneffect,inwhich
irrelevantinformationweakenstheeffectofastereotype.Subjectsinonestudywereaskedwhether"Paul"
or"Susan"wasmorelikelytobeassertive,givennootherinformationthantheirfirstnames.Theyrated
Paulasmoreassertive,apparentlybasingtheirjudgmentonagenderstereotype.Anothergroup,toldthat
Paul'sandSusan'smotherseachcommutetoworkinabank,didnotshowthisstereotypeeffecttheyrated
PaulandSusanasequallyassertive.TheexplanationisthattheadditionalinformationaboutPaulandSusan
madethemlessrepresentativeofmenorwomeningeneral,andsothesubjects'expectationsaboutmenand
womenhadaweakereffect.[26]Thismeansirrelativeandundiagnosticinformationaboutcertainissuecan
makerelativeinformationlesspowerfultotheissuewhenpeopleunderstandthephenomenon.[27]
Misperceptionofrandomness
Representativenessexplainssystematicerrorsthatpeoplemakewhenjudgingtheprobabilityofrandom
events.Forexample,inasequenceofcointosses,eachofwhichcomesupheads(H)ortails(T),people
reliablytendtojudgeaclearlypatternedsequencesuchasHHHTTTaslesslikelythanalesspatterned
sequencesuchasHTHTTH.Thesesequenceshaveexactlythesameprobability,butpeopletendtoseethe
moreclearlypatternedsequencesaslessrepresentativeofrandomness,andsolesslikelytoresultfroma
randomprocess.[14][28]TverskyandKahnemanarguedthatthiseffectunderliesthegambler'sfallacya
tendencytoexpectoutcomestoevenoutovertheshortrun,likeexpectingaroulettewheeltocomeup
blackbecausethelastseveralthrowscameupred.[17][29]Theyemphasisedthatevenexpertsinstatistics
weresusceptibletothisillusion:ina1971surveyofprofessionalpsychologists,theyfoundthatrespondents
expectedsamplestobeoverlyrepresentativeofthepopulationtheyweredrawnfrom.Asaresult,the
psychologistssystematicallyoverestimatedthestatisticalpoweroftheirtests,andunderestimatedthe
samplesizeneededforameaningfultestoftheirhypotheses.[14][29]

Anchoringandadjustment
Anchoringandadjustmentisaheuristicusedinmanysituationswherepeopleestimateanumber.[30]
AccordingtoTverskyandKahneman'soriginaldescription,itinvolvesstartingfromareadilyavailable
numberthe"anchor"andshiftingeitherupordowntoreachananswerthatseemsplausible.[30]In
TverskyandKahneman'sexperiments,peopledidnotshiftfarenoughawayfromtheanchor.Hencethe
anchorcontaminatestheestimate,evenifitisclearlyirrelevant.Inoneexperiment,subjectswatcheda
numberbeingselectedfromaspinning"wheeloffortune".Theyhadtosaywhetheragivenquantitywas
largerorsmallerthanthatnumber.Forinstance,theymightbeasked,"IsthepercentageofAfrican
countrieswhicharemembersoftheUnitedNationslargerorsmallerthan65%?"Theythentriedtoguess
thetruepercentage.Theiranswerscorrelatedwellwiththearbitrarynumbertheyhadbeengiven.[30][31]
Insufficientadjustmentfromananchorisnottheonlyexplanationforthiseffect.Analternativetheoryis
thatpeopleformtheirestimatesonevidencewhichisselectivelybroughttomindbytheanchor.[32]
Theanchoringeffecthasbeendemonstratedbyawidevarietyofexperimentsbothinlaboratoriesandinthe
realworld.[31][33]Itremainswhenthesubjectsareofferedmoneyasanincentivetobeaccurate,orwhen
theyareexplicitlytoldnottobasetheirjudgmentontheanchor.[33]Theeffectisstrongerwhenpeoplehave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

5/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

tomaketheirjudgmentsquickly.[34]Subjectsintheseexperimentslack
introspectiveawarenessoftheheuristic,denyingthattheanchoraffectedtheir
estimates.[34]
Evenwhentheanchorvalueisobviouslyrandomorextreme,itcanstill
contaminateestimates.[33]Oneexperimentaskedsubjectstoestimatetheyear
ofAlbertEinstein'sfirstvisittotheUnitedStates.Anchorsof1215and1992
contaminatedtheanswersjustasmuchasmoresensibleanchoryears.[34]
OtherexperimentsaskedsubjectsiftheaveragetemperatureinSanFrancisco
ismoreorlessthan558degrees,orwhethertherehadbeenmoreorfewer
than100,025toptenalbumsbyTheBeatles.Thesedeliberatelyabsurd
anchorsstillaffectedestimatesofthetruenumbers.[31]
Anchoringresultsinaparticularlystrongbiaswhenestimatesarestatedinthe
formofaconfidenceinterval.Anexampleiswherepeoplepredictthevalue
ofastockmarketindexonaparticulardaybydefininganupperandlower
boundsothattheyare98%confidentthetruevaluewillfallinthatrange.A
reliablefindingisthatpeopleanchortheirupperandlowerboundstooclose
totheirbestestimate.[14]Thisleadstoanoverconfidenceeffect.Onemuch
replicatedfindingisthatwhenpeopleare98%certainthatanumberisina
particularrange,theyarewrongaboutthirtytofortypercentofthe
time.[14][35]

Theamountofmoney
peoplewillpayinan
auctionforabottleofwine
canbeinfluencedby
consideringanarbitrary
twodigitnumber.

Anchoringalsocausesparticulardifficultywhenmanynumbersarecombined
intoacompositejudgment.TverskyandKahnemandemonstratedthisby
askingagroupofpeopletorapidlyestimatetheproduct
8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1.Anothergrouphadtoestimatethesameproduct
inreverseorder1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8.Bothgroupsunderestimatedthe
answerbyawidemargin,butthelattergroup'saverageestimatewassignificantlysmaller.[36]The
explanationintermsofanchoringisthatpeoplemultiplythefirstfewtermsofeachproductandanchoron
thatfigure.[36]Alessabstracttaskistoestimatetheprobabilitythatanaircraftwillcrash,giventhatthere
arenumerouspossiblefaultseachwithalikelihoodofoneinamillion.Acommonfindingfromstudiesof
thesetasksisthatpeopleanchoronthesmallcomponentprobabilitiesandsounderestimatethetotal.[36]A
correspondingeffecthappenswhenpeopleestimatetheprobabilityofmultipleeventshappeningin
sequence,suchasanaccumulatorbetinhorseracing.Forthiskindofjudgment,anchoringonthe
individualprobabilitiesresultsinanoverestimateofthecombinedprobability.[36]
Applications
People'svaluationofgoods,andthequantitiestheybuy,respondtoanchoringeffects.Inoneexperiment,
peoplewrotedownthelasttwodigitsoftheirsocialsecuritynumbers.Theywerethenaskedtoconsider
whethertheywouldpaythisnumberofdollarsforitemswhosevaluetheydidnotknow,suchaswine,
chocolate,andcomputerequipment.Theythenenteredanauctiontobidfortheseitems.Thosewiththe
highesttwodigitnumberssubmittedbidsthatweremanytimeshigherthanthosewiththelowest
numbers.[37][38]Whenastackofsoupcansinasupermarketwaslabelled,"Limit12percustomer",the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

6/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

labelinfluencedcustomerstobuymorecans.[34]Inanotherexperiment,realestateagentsappraisedthe
valueofhousesonthebasisofatourandextensivedocumentation.Differentagentswereshowndifferent
listingprices,andtheseaffectedtheirvaluations.Foronehouse,theappraisedvaluerangedfrom
US$114,204to$128,754.[39][40]
Anchoringandadjustmenthasalsobeenshowntoaffectgradesgiventostudents.Inoneexperiment,48
teachersweregivenbundlesofstudentessays,eachofwhichhadtobegradedandreturned.Theywerealso
givenafictionallistofthestudents'previousgrades.Themeanofthesegradesaffectedthegradesthat
teachersawardedfortheessay.[41]
Onestudyshowedthatanchoringaffectedthesentencesinafictionalrapetrial.[42]Thesubjectsweretrial
judgeswith,onaverage,morethanfifteenyearsofexperience.Theyreaddocumentsincludingwitness
testimony,expertstatements,therelevantpenalcode,andthefinalpleasfromtheprosecutionanddefence.
Thetwoconditionsofthisexperimentdifferedinjustonerespect:theprosecutordemandeda34month
sentenceinoneconditionand12monthsintheothertherewasaneightmonthdifferencebetweenthe
averagesentenceshandedoutinthesetwoconditions.[42]Inasimilarmocktrial,thesubjectstooktherole
ofjurorsinacivilcase.Theywereeitheraskedtoawarddamages"intherangefrom$15millionto$50
million"or"intherangefrom$50millionto$150million".Althoughthefactsofthecasewerethesame
eachtime,jurorsgiventhehigherrangedecidedonanawardthatwasaboutthreetimeshigher.This
happenedeventhoughthesubjectswereexplicitlywarnednottotreattherequestsasevidence.[37]

Affectheuristic
"Affect",inthiscontext,isafeelingsuchasfear,pleasureorsurprise.Itisshorterindurationthanamood,
occurringrapidlyandinvoluntarilyinresponsetoastimulus.Whilereadingthewords"lungcancer"might
generateanaffectofdread,thewords"mother'slove"cancreateanaffectofaffectionandcomfort.When
peopleuseaffect("gutresponses")tojudgebenefitsorrisks,theyareusingtheaffectheuristic.[43]The
affectheuristichasbeenusedtoexplainwhymessagesframedtoactivateemotionsaremorepersuasive
thanthoseframedinapurelyfactualway.[44]

Others
Controlheuristic
Contagionheuristic
Effortheuristic
Familiarityheuristic

Fluencyheuristic
Gazeheuristic
Hothandfallacy
Naivediversification
Peakendrule
Recognitionheuristic

Scarcityheuristic
Similarityheuristic
Simulationheuristic
Socialproof

Theories
Therearecompetingtheoriesofhumanjudgment,whichdifferonwhethertheuseofheuristicsisirrational.
Acognitivelazinessapproacharguesthatheuristicsareinevitableshortcutsgiventhelimitationsofthe
humanbrain.Accordingtothenaturalassessmentsapproach,somecomplexcalculationsarealreadydone
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

7/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

rapidlyandautomaticallybythebrain,andotherjudgmentsmakeuseoftheseprocessesratherthan
calculatingfromscratch.Thishasledtoatheorycalled"attributesubstitution",whichsaysthatpeople
oftenhandleacomplicatedquestionbyansweringadifferent,relatedquestion,withoutbeingawarethat
thisiswhattheyaredoing.[45]Athirdapproacharguesthatheuristicsperformjustaswellasmore
complicateddecisionmakingprocedures,butmorequicklyandwithlessinformation.Thisperspective
emphasisesthe"fastandfrugal"natureofheuristics.[46]

Cognitivelaziness
AneffortreductionframeworkproposedbyAnujK.ShahandDanielM.Oppenheimerstatesthatpeople
useavarietyoftechniquestoreducetheeffortofmakingdecisions.[47]

Attributesubstitution
In2002DanielKahnemanandShaneFrederickproposedaprocess
calledattributesubstitutionwhichhappenswithoutconscious
awareness.Accordingtothistheory,whensomebodymakesa
judgment(ofatargetattribute)whichiscomputationallycomplex,
arathermoreeasilycalculatedheuristicattributeissubstituted.[48]
Ineffect,adifficultproblemisdealtwithbyansweringarather
simplerproblem,withoutthepersonbeingawarethisis
happening.[45]Thisexplainswhyindividualscanbeunawareof
theirownbiases,andwhybiasespersistevenwhenthesubjectis
madeawareofthem.Italsoexplainswhyhumanjudgmentsoften
failtoshowregressiontowardthemean.[45][48][49]
Thissubstitutionisthoughtofastakingplaceintheautomatic
intuitivejudgmentsystem,ratherthanthemoreselfaware
reflectivesystem.[50]Hence,whensomeonetriestoanswera
difficultquestion,theymayactuallyanswerarelatedbutdifferent
question,withoutrealizingthatasubstitutionhastakenplace.[45][48]

Avisualexampleofattribute
substitution.Thisillusionworks
becausethe2Dsizeofpartsofthe
sceneisjudgedonthebasisof3D
(perspective)size,whichisrapidly
calculatedbythevisualsystem.

In1975,psychologistStanleySmithStevensproposedthatthe
strengthofastimulus(e.g.thebrightnessofalight,theseverityofacrime)isencodedbybraincellsina
waythatisindependentofmodality.KahnemanandFrederickbuiltonthisidea,arguingthatthetarget
attributeandheuristicattributecouldbeverydifferentinnature.[45]
KahnemanandFrederickproposethreeconditionsforattribute
substitution:[45]
1.Thetargetattributeisrelativelyinaccessible.
Substitutionisnotexpectedtotakeplaceinansweringfactual
questionsthatcanberetrieveddirectlyfrommemory("Whatis
yourbirthday?")oraboutcurrentexperience("Doyoufeel
thirstynow?).
2.Anassociatedattributeishighlyaccessible.

[P]eoplearenotaccustomedto
thinkinghard,andareoftencontent
totrustaplausiblejudgmentthat
comestomind.
DanielKahneman,American
EconomicReview93(5)December
2003,p.1450[49]

Thismightbebecauseitisevaluatedautomaticallyinnormalperceptionorbecauseithasbeen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

8/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Thismightbebecauseitisevaluatedautomaticallyinnormalperceptionorbecauseithasbeen
primed.Forexample,someonewhohasbeenthinkingabouttheirlovelifeandisthenaskedhow
happytheyaremightsubstitutehowhappytheyarewiththeirloveliferatherthanotherareas.
3.Thesubstitutionisnotdetectedandcorrectedbythereflectivesystem.
Forexample,whenasked"Abatandaballtogethercost$1.10.Thebatcosts$1morethantheball.
Howmuchdoestheballcost?"manysubjectsincorrectlyanswer$0.10.[49]Anexplanationinterms
ofattributesubstitutionisthat,ratherthanworkoutthesum,subjectsparsethesumof$1.10intoa
largeamountandasmallamount,whichiseasytodo.Whethertheyfeelthatistherightanswerwill
dependonwhethertheycheckthecalculationwiththeirreflectivesystem.
KahnemangivesanexamplewheresomeAmericanswereofferedinsuranceagainsttheirowndeathina
terroristattackwhileonatriptoEurope,whileanothergroupwereofferedinsurancethatwouldcover
deathofanykindonthetrip.Eventhough"deathofanykind"includes"deathinaterroristattack",the
formergroupwerewillingtopaymorethanthelatter.Kahnemansuggeststhattheattributeoffearisbeing
substitutedforacalculationofthetotalrisksoftravel.[51]Fearofterrorismforthesesubjectswasstronger
thanageneralfearofdyingonaforeigntrip.SeeMorewedgeandKahneman(2010),forarecentsummary
ofattributesubstitution.[50]

Fastandfrugal
GerdGigerenzerandcolleagueshavearguedthatheuristicscanbeusedtomakejudgmentsthatare
accurateratherthanbiased.Accordingtothem,heuristicsare"fastandfrugal"alternativestomore
complicatedprocedures,givinganswersthatarejustasgood.[52]Thebenefitsofheuristicor'lessismore'
decisionmakingstrategieshavebeenobservedinavarietyofsettings,rangingfromfoodconsumption,to
thestockmarkettoonlinedating.[53]

Consequences
Efficientdecisionheuristics
WarrenThorngate,anemeritussocialpsychologist,implemented10simpledecisionrulesorheuristicsina
simulationprogramascomputersubroutineschoseanalternative.Hedeterminedhowofteneachheuristic
selectedalternativeswithhighestthroughlowestexpectedvalueinaseriesofrandomlygenerateddecision
situations.Hefoundthatmostofthesimulatedheuristicsselectedalternativeswithhighestexpectedvalue
andalmostneverselectedalternativeswithlowestexpectedvalue.Moreinformationaboutthesimulation
canbefoundinhis"Efficientdecisionheuristics"article(1980).[54]

"Beautifulisfamiliar"effect
PsychologistBenotMoninreportsaseriesofexperimentsinwhichsubjects,lookingatphotographsof
faces,havetojudgewhethertheyhaveseenthosefacesbefore.Itisrepeatedlyfoundthatattractivefaces
aremorelikelytobemistakenlylabeledasfamiliar.[55]Monininterpretsthisresultintermsofattribute
substitution.Theheuristicattributeinthiscaseisa"warmglow"apositivefeelingtowardssomeonethat
mighteitherbeduetotheirbeingfamiliarorbeingattractive.Thisinterpretationhasbeencriticised,
becausenotallthevarianceinfamiliarityisaccountedforbytheattractivenessofthephotograph.[47]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

9/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Judgmentsofmoralityandfairness
LegalscholarCassSunsteinhasarguedthatattributesubstitutionispervasivewhenpeoplereasonabout
moral,politicalorlegalmatters.[56]Givenadifficult,novelproblemintheseareas,peoplesearchforamore
familiar,relatedproblem(a"prototypicalcase")andapplyitssolutionasthesolutiontotheharderproblem.
AccordingtoSunstein,theopinionsoftrustedpoliticalorreligiousauthoritiescanserveasheuristic
attributeswhenpeopleareaskedtheirownopinionsonamatter.Anothersourceofheuristicattributesis
emotion:people'smoralopinionsonsensitivesubjectslikesexualityandhumancloningmaybedrivenby
reactionssuchasdisgust,ratherthanbyreasonedprinciples.[57]Sunsteinhasbeenchallengedasnot
providingenoughevidencethatattributesubstitution,ratherthanotherprocesses,isatworkinthese
cases.[47]

Seealso
Behavioraleconomics
Boundedrationality
Debiasing
Ecologicalrationality
Cognitivemiser
Listofcognitivebiases
Listofmemorybiases
Lowinformationvoter
Methodologyofheuristics
AdaptiveToolbox

Footnotes
a."Heuristic"wasoriginallyanadjectiveandisderivedfromtheGreekword(heuriskein)meaning
"servingtodiscover".Itsuseasanouncamelater,asanabbreviationfor"heuristicmethod"or"heuristic
principle".(Baron2000,p.50)

Citations
1.Lewis,Alan(17April2008).TheCambridge
HandbookofPsychologyandEconomicBehaviour.
CambridgeUniversityPress.p.43.ISBN9780
521856652.Retrieved7February2013.
2.Harris,LoriA.(21May2007).CliffsAP
Psychology.JohnWiley&Sons.p.65.ISBN978
0470197189.Retrieved7February2013.
3.Nevid,JeffreyS.(1October2008).Psychology:
ConceptsandApplications.CengageLearning.
p.251.ISBN9780547148144.Retrieved
7February2013.
4.Kahneman,DanielKlein,Gary(2009)."Conditions
forintuitiveexpertise:Afailuretodisagree".
AmericanPsychologist64(6):515526.
doi:10.1037/a0016755.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

5.Kahneman,Daniel(2011)."Introduction".Thinking,
FastandSlow.Farrar,StrausandGiroux.
ISBN9781429969352.
6.Plous1999,p.109
7.Fiedler,KlausvonSydow,Momme(2015).
"HeuristicsandBiases:BeyondTverskyand
Kahneman's(1974)JudgmentunderUncertainty"
(PDF).InEysenck,MichaelW.Groome,David.
CognitivePsychology:RevisingtheClassical
Studies.Sage,London.pp.146161.ISBN9781
446294475.
8.Gigerenzer,G.(1996)."Onnarrownormsand
vagueheuristics:AreplytoKahnemanand
Tversky.Heuristic".PsychologicalReview103(3):
592596.doi:10.1037/0033295X.103.3.592.
10/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

9.Hastie&Dawes2009,pp.210211
10.Tversky,AmosKahneman,Daniel(1973),
"Availability:AHeuristicforJudgingFrequency
andProbability",CognitivePsychology5:207232,
doi:10.1016/00100285(73)900339,ISSN0010
0285
11.Morewedge,CareyK.Todorov,Alexander(24
January2012)."TheLeastLikelyAct:
OverweightingAtypicalPastBehaviorin
BehavioralPredictions".SocialPsychologicaland
PersonalityScience3(6):760766.
doi:10.1177/1948550611434784.
12.Sutherland2007,pp.1617
13.Plous1993,pp.123124
14.Tversky&Kahneman1974
15.Carroll,J.(1978)."TheEffectofImaginingan
EventonExpectationsfortheEvent:An
InterpretationinTermsoftheAvailability
Heuristic".JournalofExperimentalSocial
Psychology14(1):8896.doi:10.1016/0022
1031(78)900628.ISSN00221031.
16.Srull,ThomasK.Wyer,RobertS.(1979)."The
RoleofCategoryAccessibilityintheInterpretation
ofInformationAboutPersons:SomeDeterminants
andImplications".JournalofPersonalityand
SocialPsychology37(10):166072.
doi:10.1037/00223514.37.10.1660.ISSN0022
3514.
17.Plous1993,pp.109120
18.Nisbett,RichardE.Ross,Lee(1980).Human
inference:strategiesandshortcomingsofsocial
judgment.EnglewoodCliffs,NJ:PrenticeHall.
pp.115118.ISBN9780134450735.
19.Kahneman,DanielAmosTversky(July1973)."On
thePsychologyofPrediction".Psychological
Review(AmericanPsychologicalAssociation)80
(4):23751.doi:10.1037/h0034747.ISSN0033
295X.
20.Tversky,AmosKahneman,Daniel(1983).
"Extensionalversusintuitivereasoning:The
conjunctionfallacyinprobabilityjudgment.".
PsychologicalReview90(4):293315.
doi:10.1037/0033295X.90.4.293.reprintedin
Gilovich,ThomasGriffin,DaleKahneman,
Daniel,eds.(2002),HeuristicsandBiases:The
PsychologyofIntuitiveJudgment,Cambridge:
CambridgeUniversityPress,pp.1948,
ISBN9780521796798,OCLC47364085
21.Poundstone2010,p.89

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

22.Tentori,K.Bonini,N.Osherson,D.(1May
2004)."Theconjunctionfallacy:a
misunderstandingaboutconjunction?".Cognitive
Science28(3):467477.
doi:10.1016/j.cogsci.2004.01.001.
23.Moro,Rodrigo(29July2008)."Onthenatureof
theconjunctionfallacy".Synthese171(1):124.
doi:10.1007/s1122900893778.
24.Gigerenzer,Gerd(1991)."Howtomakecognitive
illusionsdisappear:Beyond"heuristicsandbiases".
EuropeanReviewofSocialPsychology2:83115.
doi:10.1080/14792779143000033.
25.Kunda1999,pp.7071
26.Kunda1999,pp.6870
27.Zukier,Henry(1982)."Thedilutioneffect:Therole
ofthecorrelationandthedispersionofpredictor
variablesintheuseofnondiagnosticinformation.".
JournalofPersonalityandSocialPsychology43
(6):11631174.doi:10.1037/00223514.43.6.1163.
28.Kunda1999,pp.7172
29.Tversky,AmosKahneman,Daniel(1971)."Belief
inthelawofsmallnumbers.".Psychological
Bulletin76(2):105110.doi:10.1037/h0031322.
reprintedinDanielKahneman,PaulSlovic,Amos
Tversky,ed.(1982).Judgmentunderuncertainty:
heuristicsandbiases.Cambridge:Cambridge
UniversityPress.pp.2331.
ISBN9780521284141.
30.Baron2000,p.235?
31.Plous1993,pp.145146
32.Koehler&Harvey2004,p.99
33.Mussweiler,Englich&Strack2004,pp.185
186,197
34.Yudkowsky2008,pp.102103
35.Lichtenstein,SarahFischoff,BaruchPhillips,
LawrenceD.(1982),"Calibrationofprobabilities:
Thestateoftheartto1980",inKahneman,Daniel
Slovic,PaulTversky,Amos,Judgmentunder
uncertainty:Heuristicsandbiases,Cambridge
UniversityPress,pp.306334,
ISBN9780521284141
36.Sutherland2007,pp.168170
37.Hastie&Dawes2009,pp.7880
38.GeorgeLoewenstein(2007),ExoticPreferences:
BehavioralEconomicsandHumanMotivation,
OxfordUniversityPress,pp.284285,
ISBN9780199257072
39.Mussweiler,Englich&Strack2004,p.188
40.Plous1993,pp.148149

11/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

41.Caverni,JeanPaulPris,JeanLuc(1990),"The
AnchoringAdjustmentHeuristicinan'Information
Rich,RealWorldSetting':KnowledgeAssessment
byExperts",inCaverni,JeanPaulFabr,Jean
MarcGonzlez,Michel,Cognitivebiases,Elsevier,
pp.3545,ISBN9780444884138
42.Mussweiler,Englich&Strack2004,p.183
43.Finucane,M.L.Alhakami,A.Slovic,P.Johnson,
S.M.(January2000)."TheAffectHeuristicin
JudgmentofRisksandBenefits".Journalof
BehavioralDecisionMaking13(1):117.
doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099
0771(200001/03)13:1<1::AIDBDM333>3.0.CO2
S.
44.Keller,CarmenSiegrist,MichaelGutscher,Heinz
(June2006)."TheRoleofAffectandAvailability
HeuristicsinRiskAnalysis".RiskAnalysis26(3):
631639.doi:10.1111/j.15396924.2006.00773.x.
45.Kahneman,DanielFrederick,Shane(2002),
"RepresentativenessRevisited:Attribute
SubstitutioninIntuitiveJudgment",inGilovich,
ThomasGriffin,DaleKahneman,Daniel,
HeuristicsandBiases:ThePsychologyofIntuitive
Judgment,Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,
pp.4981,ISBN9780521796798,
OCLC47364085
46.Hardman2009,pp.1316
47.Shah,AnujK.DanielM.Oppenheimer(March
2008)."HeuristicsMadeEasy:AnEffort
ReductionFramework".PsychologicalBulletin
(AmericanPsychologicalAssociation)134(2):
207222.doi:10.1037/00332909.134.2.207.
ISSN19391455.PMID18298269.
48.Newell,BenjaminR.DavidA.LagnadoDavidR.
Shanks(2007).Straightchoices:thepsychologyof
decisionmaking.Routledge.pp.7174.
ISBN9781841695884.
49.Kahneman,Daniel(December2003)."Mapsof
BoundedRationality:PsychologyforBehavioral
Economics"(PDF).AmericanEconomicReview
(AmericanEconomicAssociation)93(5):1449
1475.doi:10.1257/000282803322655392.
ISSN00028282.

50.Morewedge,CareyK.Kahneman,Daniel(October
2010)."Associativeprocessesinintuitive
judgment".TrendsinCognitiveSciences14(10):
435440.doi:10.1016/j.tics.2010.07.004.
PMID20696611.
51.Kahneman,Daniel(2007)."ShortCoursein
ThinkingAboutThinking".Edge.org.Edge
Foundation.Retrieved20090603.
52.GerdGigerenzer,PeterM.Todd,andtheABC
ResearchGroup(1999).SimpleHeuristicsThat
MakeUsSmart.Oxford,UK,OxfordUniversity
Press.ISBN0195143817
53.vanderLinden,S.(2011)."SpeedDatingand
DecisionMaking:WhyLessisMore".Scientific
AmericanMindMatters(Nature).Retrieved
20131114.
54.Thorngate,Warren(1980)."Efficientdecision
heuristics".BehavioralScience25(3):219225.
doi:10.1002/bs.3830250306.
55.Monin,BenotDanielM.Oppenheimer(2005),
"CorrelatedAveragesvs.AveragedCorrelations:
DemonstratingtheWarmGlowHeuristicBeyond
Aggregation"(PDF),SocialCognition23(3):257
278,doi:10.1521/soco.2005.23.3.257,ISSN0278
016X
56.Sunstein,CassR.(2005)."Moralheuristics".
BehavioralandBrainSciences(Cambridge
UniversityPress)28(4):531542.
doi:10.1017/S0140525X05000099.ISSN0140
525X.PMID16209802.
57.Sunstein,CassR.(2009)."SomeEffectsofMoral
IndignationonLaw"(PDF).VermontLawReview
(VermontLawSchool)33(3):405434.
SSRN1401432.Archivedfromtheoriginal(PDF)
onNovember29,2014.Retrieved20090915.

References
Baron,Jonathan(2000),Thinkinganddeciding(3rded.),NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,
ISBN0521650305,OCLC316403966
Fiedler,KlausvonSydow,Momme(2015),"HeuristicsandBiases:BeyondTverskyand
Kahneman's(1974)JudgmentunderUncertainty"(PDF),inEysenck,MichaelW.Groome,David,
CognitivePsychology:RevisingtheClassicalStudies,Sage,London,pp.146161,ISBN9781
446294475
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

12/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Gigerenzer,G.(1996),"Onnarrownormsandvagueheuristics:AreplytoKahnemanandTversky.
Heuristic",PsychologicalReview103(3):592596,doi:10.1037/0033295X.103.3.592
Gilovich,ThomasGriffin,DaleW.(2002),"IntroductionHeuristicsandBiases:ThenandNow",in
Gilovich,ThomasGriffin,DaleW.Kahneman,Daniel,Heuristicsandbiases:thepsychologyof
intuitivejudgement,CambridgeUniversityPress,pp.118,ISBN9780521796798
Hardman,David(2009),Judgmentanddecisionmaking:psychologicalperspectives,Wiley
Blackwell,ISBN9781405123983
Hastie,ReidDawes,RobynM.(29September2009),RationalChoiceinanUncertainWorld:The
PsychologyofJudgmentandDecisionMaking,SAGE,ISBN9781412959032
Koehler,DerekJ.Harvey,Nigel(2004),Blackwellhandbookofjudgmentanddecisionmaking,
WileyBlackwell,ISBN9781405107464
Kunda,Ziva(1999),SocialCognition:MakingSenseofPeople,MITPress,ISBN978026261143
5,OCLC40618974
Mussweiler,ThomasEnglich,BirteStrack,Fritz(2004),"Anchoringeffect",inPohl,RdigerF.,
CognitiveIllusions:AHandbookonFallaciesandBiasesinThinking,JudgementandMemory,
Hove,UK:PsychologyPress,pp.183200,ISBN9781841693514,OCLC55124398
Plous,Scott(1993),ThePsychologyofJudgmentandDecisionMaking,McGrawHill,
ISBN9780070504776,OCLC26931106
Poundstone,William(2010),Priceless:themythoffairvalue(andhowtotakeadvantageofit),Hill
andWang,ISBN9780809094691
Reber,Rolf(2004),"Availability",inPohl,RdigerF.,CognitiveIllusions:AHandbookonFallacies
andBiasesinThinking,JudgementandMemory,Hove,UK:PsychologyPress,pp.147163,
ISBN9781841693514,OCLC55124398
Sutherland,Stuart(2007),Irrationality(2nded.),London:PinterandMartin,ISBN9781905177073,
OCLC72151566
Teigen,KarlHalvor(2004),"Judgementsbyrepresentativeness",inPohl,RdigerF.,Cognitive
Illusions:AHandbookonFallaciesandBiasesinThinking,JudgementandMemory,Hove,UK:
PsychologyPress,pp.165182,ISBN9781841693514,OCLC55124398
Tversky,AmosKahneman,Daniel(1974),"JudgmentsUnderUncertainty:HeuristicsandBiases"
(PDF) ,Science185(4157):11241131,doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124,PMID17835457
reprintedinDanielKahneman,PaulSlovic,AmosTversky,ed.(1982).JudgmentUnderUncertainty:
HeuristicsandBiases.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.pp.320.ISBN9780521284141.
Yudkowsky,Eliezer(2008),"Cognitivebiasespotentiallyaffectingjudgmentofglobalrisks",in
Bostrom,Nickirkovi,MilanM.,Globalcatastrophicrisks,OxfordUniversityPress,pp.91129,
ISBN9780198570509

Furtherreading
Slovic,PaulMelissaFinucaneEllenPetersDonaldG.MacGregor(2002)."TheAffectHeuristic".
InThomasGilovich,DaleGriffin,DanielKahneman.HeuristicsandBiases:ThePsychologyof
IntuitiveJudgment.CambridgeUniversityPress.pp.397420.ISBN9780521796798.

Externallinks
TestYourself:DecisionMakingandtheAvailabilityHeuristic
(http://www.learner.org/discoveringpsychology/11/e11expand.html)
Retrievedfrom"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

13/14

5/2/2016

HeuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmakingWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

making&oldid=715953854"
Categories: Cognitivebiases Heuristics Experimentalpsychology Cognitivepsychology
Thispagewaslastmodifiedon18April2016,at23:29.
TextisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttributionShareAlikeLicenseadditionaltermsmay
apply.Byusingthissite,youagreetotheTermsofUseandPrivacyPolicy.Wikipediaisa
registeredtrademarkoftheWikimediaFoundation,Inc.,anonprofitorganization.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decisionmaking

14/14