Japan's Long-term Energy Plan(3E + S)

Shoots for Ultimate Balance in Economics, Environment and Safety

Japans new long-term energy plan draft called 3E+S aims to heavily increase
energy independence and emphasize safety in a post-Fukushima environment.
July 9, 2015
By Junko Movellan, Correspondent
What is 3E + S? It is neither a mathematics problem nor chemical equation. It is
Japans latest long-term energy plan, which was released by Japan's Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on June 1stf for review. The draft plan aims
to establish an optimum energy mix by the year 2030.
The three Es stand for the first letters in Energy Security, Economic Efficiency
and Environment and the letter S stands for Safety. Safety is crucial to the
energy plan in the wake of the worlds worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl
when the devastating tsunami and earthquake hit northeast Japan in 2011. Since
the disasters, Japans electricity generation mix has drastically changed.
The fear of nuclear power plants led to the shutting down of 54 of the nations
nuclear reactors, which used to provide about 30 percent of the nation electricity.
To make up for the loss of electricity supplied by nuclear means, Japan turned its
heads toward coal and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The nations sharp increase
in fossil fuel demand caused the price of LNG, linked to crude oil import price, to
soar.
The transition from nuclear to fossil fuels caused the nations energy selfsufficiency percentage to plummet to a mere 6 percent and Japans greenhouse
gasses to hit an alarming record high in 2013. The increase cost of fossil fuel
imports and the nationwide feed-in tariff (FIT) program has also increased
electricity prices by 30 percent for industry users and 20 percent for residential
consumers.
New Plan to Reverse the Effect of Fossil Fuels

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The 3E + S plan aims to reverse the effects brought by the increased

consumption of fossil fuels. Japan specifically wants to improve its selfsufficiency to 25 percent above the pre-disaster level. It also hopes to control and
reduce electricity cost for the nations industry to gain back a competitive
advantage while reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the same level as the
Western nations.

3E + S = Optimum Energy Mix for Japan?

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In theory, to achieve the optimum 3E + S, the nation plans to implement

thorough energy efficiency measures to reduce overall electricity consumption,
maximize renewable resources, improve the efficiency of fossil fuel-fired power
generation systems, and reduce dependency on nuclear power for safety.
If Japan expands domestically available renewable energy, it can improve selfsufficiency and reduce CO2 emission. However, if Japan wants to reduce the
cost of electricity, it may need to control the amount of high-cost renewable and
expand low-cost fossil-fueled power. Furthermore, revitalizing nuclear power
plants can be an option to improve self-sufficiency, reduce CO2 emission and
possibly reduce the cost of electricity.
Japan needs to arrive at a right balance between Energy Security (selfsufficiency), Environment (CO2 reduction) and Economic (Cost of electricity)
while still keeping safety as a number one priority.
In the energy plan, Japans electricity generation mix in 2030 comprises of 22 to
24 percent of renewable, 20 to 22 percent of nuclear, 27 percent of LNG, 26
percent of coal and 3 percent of oil. The share of renewable more than doubled
from the 2011 disasters while the share of oil drastically got reduced from 8
percent to 3 percent.
Within the renewable section of electrical generation, hydropower accounts for
the largest share (8.8 percent to 9 percent), followed by solar photovoltaic (PV)
with 7 percent, then biomass with 3.7 percent to 4.6 percent.
The plan calls for maximizing deployment of renewable to replace existing
nuclear and fossil fuel power. Geothermal, hydro and biomass power, which can
produce stable supply, will be used as a replacement for nuclear power. Solar
and wind power, which are intermittent and variable by nature, will also partially
replace fossil fuel power.
The plan, however, notes that deployment of renewable, specifically PV and
wind, will be limited within the amount of financial burdens that ratepayers can
bear to support the nations FIT program. Japan spent over 9 trillion yen on fuels
and 0.5 trillion yen on payments for the FIT in 2013. In 2030, the fuel cost is
expected to be down to 5.5 trillion yen while the FIT payment will increase to
about 4.0 trillion yen.

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The plan also specifies to deploy geothermal, hydro and biomass power first,
then intermittent power of solar and wind. Between solar and wind, wind has a
priority since it has a lower FIT payment than solar.
With the constraint of the FIT payments, the nation will be able to generate 236.6
to 251.5 TWh of electricity from the mix of renewable.

To reach the 2030 goal, the largest capacity addition will come from PV of 64
GW (9 MW from residential and 55 MW from non-residential systems), followed
by hydropower (mostly large-scale) of about 49 GW and wind of 10 GW.
Public Comments Seek More RenewablesOr Not
The METI opened for public comments on the 2030 energy plan. About 19,000
comments were submitted by public within 30 days of the release of the plan.
The nation quickly divided into two groups: Those who seek more renewable and
those who ask for less.
The Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (JREF) stated that the METIs goal to
set a renewable share to 22-24 percent in 2030 is too pessimistic. JREF
believes that it will be possible for the nation to cover 45 percent of its electricity
needs by renewable like other G7 nations. It recommends increasing the
renewable portion to at least 30 percent under the Energy Plan.
The Japan Federation of Bar Associations (JFBA) stated that the plan should not
consider revitalization of nuclear power and increase deployment of distributed
renewable energy systems that are safe and reduce CO2 emissions.
The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) stated the goal to reduce
electricity procurement costs should be much higher to remove a competitive
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disadvantage that the domestic industry has experienced for the last several
years. It also stated that the nations FIT policy, which has supported a massive
amount of PV capacity, rather than well-diversified renewable mix, is a cause of
the rate increase and will bring further financial burden to ratepayers. The JCCI
believes that the nation has to stop the rate increase as soon as possible. To do
so, the nation needs to put a limit on new PV capacity, set a limit on PV system
size, and cut FIT payments for PV.
With consideration of the public comments, the Cabinet will decide to approve
the nations energy target by the middle of July.
Lead image: Mt. Fuji. Credit: Shutterstock

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