Professional Documents
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Overview
There are many ways to look at the oil and gas industry.
From a personal perspective, oil and gas provide the world's 7 billion people with 60
percent of their daily energy needs. The other 40 percent comes from coal, nuclear and
hydroelectric power, "renewables" like wind, solar and tidal power, and biomass products
such as firewood.
As fuels, they keep us warm in cold weather and cool in hot weather; they cook our food and
heat our water; they generate our electricity and power our appliances; and they take us by
car, bus, train, ship or plane to places near and distant. We all feel the economic pinch when
the prices of gasoline (Figure 1), home heating fuel or electricity increase sharply, even
though in many developed countries, they still cost less than some brands of bottled water!
Figure 2: Plastics and many other products are derived from petrochemical feedstocks.
From a business perspective, oil and gas represent global commerce on a massive scale
(Figure 3). World energy markets are continually expanding, and companies spend billions of
dollars annually to maintain and increase their oil and gas production. Over 200 countries
have invited companies to negotiate for the right to explore their lands or territorial waters,
hoping that they will find and produce oil and gas, create local jobs and provide billions of
dollars in national revenues.
Figure 3: The oil and gas industry influences virtually every aspect of the global economy.
From a geopolitical perspective, large quantities of oil and gas flow daily from "exporting"
regions such as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America to "importing" regions such as
North America, Europe and the Far East. This creates political, trade, economic and even
national security concerns on both sides (Figure 4). Oil and gas exporters want to maximize
their revenues and improve their trade balances while maintaining control and sovereignty
over their natural resources. At the same time, importing nations want to minimize trade
deficits and ensure a steady, reliable oil supply. China, for example, has recognized that it
must obtain access to oil in order to continue its long-term sustained growth and is actively
seeking new sources of supply in the major producing companies.
Figure 4: Maintaining a steady supply of oil and gas is vital to a country's long-term
economic growth (Houston Port).
From an internal policy perspective, producing countries continually wrestle with questions
of how best to develop their resources and attain long-term sustainable benefits for their
people. At the same time, consuming countries are always considering how to reduce their
dependence on imported oil, either by imposing higher energy taxes to spur conservation,
tapping into domestic resources such as coal (less costly but more polluting than imported
oil) or developing alternative energy sources such as nuclear power (Figure 5).
These issues have major long-term impacts, both within individual countries and on the world
at large, even affecting such fundamental issues as war and peace.
Figure 5: Both exporting and importing countries face major policy decisions related to oil,
gas and other energy resources.
Finally, from a health, safety and environmental (HSE) perspective, there is a continuous
concern for safety in oil and gas operations, the impact that new projects have on surface
environments, the possibility of oil spills and the effect of pollutants such as CO 2 (carbon
dioxide, a product of hydrocarbon combustion) on global climate change and air quality
(Figure 6).
Figure 6: Air pollution ("smog") over the city of Los Angeles, California impacts the health
of local society.
The oil and gas business is clearly a multifaceted, global industry that impacts all aspects of
our lives. And yet it is one that we tend to take for granted until a crisis emerges-a tanker runs
aground, a hurricane damages a refinery, a country changes political leaders or revises its
energy policies. Then we blame "big oil" or OPEC or the politicians or the local service
station attendant before things quiet down again.
In this module, we will learn about the nature of oil and gas, define some basic industry terms
and list common units of measurement and conversion factors. We will introduce the concept
of the Oil and Gas Value Chain, and examine its structure and functional relationships. We
will then look at sources of oil and gas supply, major areas of demand, pricing fundamentals,
drivers of demand and future trends. Finally, we will identify some of the key players who
make up this dynamic and vibrant industry.
Chemistry of Hydrocarbons
The smallest unit of a hydrocarbon compound is a molecule consisting of hydrogen and
carbon atoms. The physical properties of a hydrocarbon mixture - whether it exists as a solid,
liquid or gas under a given set of conditions, how much energy it contains, what products can
be derived from it and so on - are determined by the numbers and configurations of atoms
contained within each of its molecules, and how much these molecules weigh.
The simplest hydrocarbon molecule is methane. It is the essential ingredient of natural gas,
and the source of the "blue flame" that we see when we turn on a gas stove or furnace
(Figure 7). Methane consists of one carbon (C) atom and four hydrogen (H) atoms. Thus, its
chemical formula is CH4 or, in abbreviated form, C1.
Figure 7: The familiar blue flame that characterizes the combustion of methane, the key
component of natural gas.
The molecular weight of a molecule is equal to the total weight of its constituent atoms.
Hydrogen, the smallest atom, has an atomic weight of 1 by definition. Carbon has an atomic
weight of 12. Thus, we can determine the molecular weight of methane as follows:
The more atoms a molecule contains, the heavier it is. The molecular weight of ethane
(C2) is 30, while that of propane (C3) is 44 and that of butane (C4) is 58.
The heavier a molecule, the more likely it is to exist as a liquid at normal surface
conditions. This is based on its higher boiling point (i.e., the temperature above which
it changes from a liquid to a gas at atmospheric pressure). It is also more likely to
have a higher energy content or heating value per unit volume.
Methane, ethane and propane each have a single molecular configuration. Butane
(C4H10), however, shows two possible arrangements (normal butane and iso-butane),
and each arrangement has unique physical properties. Because a simple, heavy
hydrocarbon molecule can contain as many as 66 or more carbon atoms, the variety of
molecular arrangements that can be present in a mixture and therefore, the range of
physical characteristics is immense.
Figure 8: Atomic structure, chemical name and potential uses of the hydrocarbon molecules
methane (C1) through normal and iso-butane (n-C4 and i-C4).
Natural gas mixtures fall into two general categories: dry or lean natural gas has high
concentrations of methane and ethane (typically 95 percent or more), while wet, or rich,
In relatively shallow source rocks, where temperatures ranged from about 60 to 80C
[140 -176F], the organic matter was converted into heavy oil.
At lower depths and higher temperatures, from about 80C to 175C [176F to
347F], the heavier, long-chain organic molecules began to break up into shorter
molecules and form medium and light oil.
Where temperatures exceeded 175C [347F], the molecules became even shorter and
lighter, with more and more matter transformed to rich gas until, by the time it had
reached 600F [315C], all of it had been transformed to dry gas (methane).
Figure 9 shows the wide diversity that exists among petroleum fluids discovered worldwide.
Figure 9: Selection of petroleum samples ranging from a heavy black oil on the right to a
light condensate on the left.
The source rocks in which petroleum formed millions of years ago are not the same rocks in
which it is found today. Rather, oil and gas, being lighter than the water normally contained
in rock formations, moved upward by gravity forces from the source beds along permeable
migration paths. Eventually, it accumulated in reservoirs contained within geologic traps,
surrounded by impermeable cap rocks or seals that keep it from traveling any farther (Figure
10).
Figure 10: Cross section showing source rocks, migration paths and reservoirs in a
sedimentary basin similar to the North Sea basin. After oil and gas form in the source rocks,
gravity causes them to migrate upward until they are trapped in a reservoir waiting for
discovery.
Petroleum Reservoirs
The term "reservoir" brings to mind the image of a large pond or lake, so it is natural to hear
the term petroleum reservoir and picture a huge underground "pool" of oil. In reality, a
petroleum reservoir is a porous, permeable rock formation, in which oil and gas are contained
in the empty spaces between the rock grains. These spaces are interconnected, thereby
forming channels or conduits through which fluids can flow to a well, and from there to the
surface.
Figure 11: Hydrocarbon fluids change state as they travel from the reservoir to the surface.
The first step in processing this fluid is to route it to centralized surface handling facilities,
where carefully designed vessels are used to separate the oil, water and gas into individual
streams. The water is pumped back into the reservoir or otherwise disposed off in an
environmentally friendly manner. The oil is metered and stored in tanks to await pipeline or
tanker transport to the point of sale, and the gas is treated or conditioned to remove water
vapour and other impurities and processed to recover gas liquids before being metered and
sold.
Figure 12 shows the representative compositions of various produced fluids after separation
at the surface, including a crude oil with associated gas, a wet (rich) gas and a dry (lean) gas.
Figure 12: Representative compositions of various produced fluids after separation at the
surface. Note that C7+ refers to the composition of C7 plus all the heavier hydrocarbons.
Figure 13: Rich gas is separated by gas processing into dry gas and NGLs. The NGLs may
be sold to a refinery or petrochemical complex, or separated by fractionation into individual
hydrocarbon liquids.
Figure 14: Simplified schematic of a refinery showing how a crude oil turned into an initial
"cut" of refined products.
Petrochemicals
Natural gas, natural gas liquids (including LPG) and the various refinery cuts may also be
used as raw materials or feedstocks for manufacturing petrochemicals. For example, methane
can be used to make ammonia for fertilizer, and ethane can be used to make ethylene, the first
step in making plastics.
Table 1 lists some of the major categories of products that come from petrochemicals.
Consider which of these products you use daily, and what would you do or what would be
your alternatives if these products did not exist.
Some Major Categories of Petrochemical Products
Plastics
Lubricants
Process Chemicals
Carpeting
Pharmaceuticals
Rubber Goods
Adhesives
Cosmetics
Footwear
Paints
Detergents
Inks
Sealants
Fragrances
Solvents
Caulking Compounds
Fertilizers
Apparel
Fibers
Transparent Sheets
Tires
Table 1: Major petrochemical products produced from hydrocarbon feedstocks.
Figure 15: A barrel of crude oil and its measurement units in volume, weight and thermal
energy units.
The specific gravity (S.G.) of a liquid is defined as the density of that liquid divided
by the density of fresh water. Fresh water has a density of 62.4 pounds per cubic foot.
An oil with a density of 53 pounds per cubic foot, therefore, would have a specific
gravity of (53/62.4), or 0.85. Fresh water, by definition, has a specific gravity of 1.0.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) has developed a special measure that
expresses oil density in terms of API gravity, or API. It is related to the specific
gravity as follows:
S.G. = 141.5/(131.5+API)
or
API = (141.5/S.G.) - 131.5
From these relationships, we can determine that fresh water, with a specific gravity of 1.0,
has an API gravity of 10 degrees, while our 0.85 S.G. oil above has an API gravity of 35
degrees; almost all crude oils are lighter than water and so they will have higher API
gravities. Figure 16 shows the correlation between specific gravity and API gravity for
various crude oil and condensate samples.
Figure 16: Correlation between specific gravity andAPI gravity. Note the API gravities of
crude oils from different fields, including Lagunillas (Venezuela), Prudhoe Bay, (Alaska),
Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), Ninian (offshore UK), and the very light condensate produced from
the Arun Field (Indonesia).
Figure 17 demonstrates the compressibility of natural gas. The gas has a volume of 1 unit (ft 3
or m3) in the reservoir at 4,000 psia pressure. When it is produced to surface conditions of
temperature and pressure it expands to 238 units, and when it is compressed into a highpressure pipeline at 1,000 psia pressure it becomes 3 units. In all three conditions the
engineer will refer to the gas volume as 238 standard units (ft3 or m3 ).
Figure 17: Compressibility of natural gas. This Figure shows the effect of pressure and
temperature on natural gas volumes in the reservoir, pipeline and at surface conditions.
Because the cubic foot and cubic meter are too small for practical use, the industry uses larger
standard quantities with appropriate symbols (Table 3). Thus, rather than saying that a gas
well produces at a rate of 10,000,000 SCF/day, we say that the well produces at 10
MMCF/day.
Units
Quantity
Thousand
Million
1000
1,000,000
Symbol
ft3
MCF
MMCF
Symbol
m3
Mm3
MMm3
Application
The heating value of natural gas depends upon its composition. Pure methane has a heating
value of 1,010 BTU/SCF [35,663 BTU/m 3], while propane has a heating value of 2,516
BTU/SCF. A gas that contains 50% methane and 50% propane will have a heating value that
is midway between 1,010 and 2,516 BTU/SCF.
Figure 18: Propane must be stored at a pressure of 200 psi or be cooled to -44F (-42C) in
order to remain in the liquid state. This photo shows an outdoor grill with a storage tank in
which liquid propane is maintained at 200 psia pressure and may be exposed to a
temperature up to 100F (38C) and still remains as liquid.
Example: Last year, Colombia produced 551,000 bbls/day of crude oil, 619 million ft3 /day of
natural gas and 65.6 million tonnes of coal. Express their annual production in barrels of oil
equivalent and tonnes of oil equivalent.
Solution: Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Annual oil production:
551,000 bbl/day x 365 days
= 201.1 million barrels of oil equivalent
Annual gas production:
619,000 MCF x 365 days x (1 million BTU/MCF) / (6 million BTU/bbl)
= 37.7 million barrels of oil equivalent
Annual coal production:
65.6 million tonnes x (24 million BTU/tonne) / (6 million BTU/bbl)
= 262.3 million barrels of oil equivalent
BOE = 201.1 + 37.7 + 262.3 = 501.1 million
Solution: In terms of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
We use the relationship that 1 tonne = 7.33 bbls.
Tonnes of oil equivalent = (501.1)/7.33 = 68.4 million TOE
equivalent prices, but in countries like Qatar, which have large isolated gas reserves, gas
prices are much lower relative to oil. Because of a large oversupply, coal prices have been
much lower than the oil equivalency price shown above-on the order of $35/tonne for many
years-but have increased in recent years, especially on the spot markets. Industrial companies
can easily switch the burner tips of their boilers back and forth to burn natural gas or fuel oil
to take advantage of regional price differences. The residential, commercial and power
generating customers do not normally have that flexibility.
Figure 19a: This figure shows historical data of daily crude oil consumption rate and
average annual crude wholesale price for the two major marker crudes: Brent and West
Texas Intermediate.(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014. Current
prices and annual consumption (2014) are estimated based on EIA and IEA publications)
Figure 19b. This figure shows the average annual natural gas prices in three regions (LNG
delivered into Japan, UK Heren Index, and Henry Hub price in the USA) and BTU equivalent
price for crude oil (Brent crude price divided by 6).(Source: BP Statistical Review of World
Energy, June 2014. Current prices (2014) are estimated based on EIA and IEA publications)
Table 5: Conversion Table for crude oil, natural gas and gas liquids. (Source: BP
Conversion Factors).
Oil and Gas Unit Converter for crude oil, natural gas, LNG, gas liquids and
petroleum products.
Review Questions
The following questions correspond to the Oil & Gas Industry Note: You have 3 attempts.
Overview - Section 1 assessment. Complete this page with your
answers, and hit the 'submit' button at the end of the page to
continue.
1 What is the molecular weight of Carbon?
(a) 1
(b) 4
(c) 12
(d) 16
2 What is the reduction in volume while converting dry gas to LNG?
(a) 1/200 of the volume of dry gas
(b) 1/250 of the volume of dry gas
(c) 1/625 of the volume of dry gas
3 Petroleum engineers measure the production potential of oil and gas reservoirs on
the basis of:
(a) Thermal energy units
(b) Weight and volume units
(c) Only mass units
4 Which of these liquids has the LOWEST density?
(a) Fresh water (API gravity = 10 degrees)
(b) Lagunillas crude oil (API gravity = 21.5 degrees)
(c) Ghawar crude oil (API gravity = 34 degrees)
(d) Cannot determine; API gravity does not give an indication.
5 Oil and gas as petrochemical feedstock are used to make:
(a) Fertilizers
(b) Fabrics
(c) Plastics
(d) All of the above
6 Which of the following non-hydrocarbons may be present in petroleum reservoirs?
(a) Water
(b) Sulfur
(c) Carbon dioxide
(d) Nitrogen
(e) All of the above
(f) (a) and (b)
(g) (a), (b) and (c)
7 What is the API gravity of a crude oil with a specific gravity of 0.86?
(a) 11 degrees API
(b) 22 degrees API
(c) 33 degrees API
(d) 44 degrees API
8 When a petroleum reservoir contains rich gas, some of its heavier molecules at the
surface may separate as a liquid called:
(a) Benzene
(b) Ethylene
(c) Condensate
(d) Wet gas
9 Which of these statements is true?
(a) The heavier a molecule, the more likely it is to exist as vapor at normal surface
conditions
(b) The heavier a hydrocarbon molecule, the more likely it is to exist as a liquid at
normal surface conditions
(c) The lighter a hydrocarbon molecule, the more likely it is to exist as a liquid at
normal surface conditions
10 The first step in processing the fluid that comes out of a typical oil well is:
(a) To separate the oil, water and gas into individual streams in centralized surface
handling facilities
(b) To store the fluid in tanks to await pipeline or tanker transport to the point of
sale
(c) To compress the gas produced and send it to markets
11 Which of the following statements is FALSE about a Petroleum Reservoir?
(a) It is a porous rock formation
(b) It is where the original organic matter is deposited
(c) It is a permeable rock formation
(d) It typically contains oil, gas and water
(d) 75 percent
18 Which condition is needed to keep stored LPG in a liquid state?
(a) Low pressure
(b) Elevated pressure
(c) Heated
(a) To separate the oil, water and gas into individual streams in centralized
surface handling facilities
11 Which of the following statements is FALSE about a Petroleum Reservoir?
(b) It is where the original organic matter is deposited
12 Which of these following provides the greatest amount of energy, expressed in
BTUs?
(b) 2 MCF of natural gas
13 Which of these is NOT one of the "oil and gas importing" regions of the world?
(c) Africa
14 What is a measure of heating value of oil and gas?
(c) BTU (British Thermal Unit)
15 What is the first process that produced crude oil should undergo in order to be
used in finished products?
(c) Separation
16 What chemical is a major feedstock in making plastics?
(b) Ethylene
17 What percentage of the daily energy needs of world comes from oil and gas?
(c) 60 percent
18 Which condition is needed to keep stored LPG in a liquid state?
(b) Elevated pressure
1 What is a measure of heating value of oil and gas?
(a) Barrel
(b) Metric Tonnes
(c) BTU (British Thermal Unit)
(d) Fahrenheit
2 The per-unit difference between the value of refined products and the cost of the
crude oil is know as:
(a) Spark spread
(b) Residual margin
(c) Fraction spread
(c) Plastics
(d) All of the above
9 What is the heating value of pure methane?
(a) 960 BTU/SCF
(b) 1010 BTU/SCF
(c) 1120 BTU/SCF
(d) 2516 BTU/SCF
10 The first step in processing the fluid that comes out of a typical oil well is:
(a) To separate the oil, water and gas into individual streams in centralized surface
handling facilities
(b) To store the fluid in tanks to await pipeline or tanker transport to the point of
sale
(c) To compress the gas produced and send it to markets
11 Price equivalency of the various hydrocarbons can be established based on:
(a) the thermal energy content.
(b) the unit density.
(c) the total volume.
12 Oil and natural gas are formed in what type of sedimentary rocks?
(a) Traps
(b) Reservoir rocks
(c) Source rocks
(d) Igneous rocks
13 What is the molecular weight of Carbon?
(a) 1
(b) 4
(c) 12
(d) 16
14 Which of the following hydrocarbon molecules has the highest energy content?
(a) Butane
(b) Propane
(c) Ethane
(d) Methane
15 Which of the following is a standard unit for measuring gas volumes?
(a) Standard cubic feet at 100kPa psi and 15 degrees F
(b) Normal cubic meter at 0.987 atmosphere and 15 degrees C
(c) Standard cubic meter at one atmosphere and 60 degrees F
(d) Standard cubic feet at 14.696 psi and 60 degrees F
16 What is the API gravity of a crude oil with a specific gravity of 0.86?
(a) 11 degrees API
(b) 22 degrees API
(c) 33 degrees API
(d) 44 degrees API
17 What is the first process that produced crude oil should undergo in order to be
used in finished products?
(a) Refining
(b) Hydrocracking
(c) Separation
18 Which condition is needed to keep stored LPG in a liquid state?
(a) Low pressure
(b) Elevated pressure
(c) Heated
4 Which of these is NOT one of the "oil and gas importing" regions of the world?
(c) Africa
5 Which of these following provides the greatest amount of energy, expressed in
BTUs?
(a) Five barrels of crude oil
6 Petroleum engineers measure the production potential of oil and gas reservoirs on
the basis of:
(b) Weight and volume units
7 What is the temperature range at which organic matter is transformed to gas?
(c) 175C to 315C [347F to 600F]
8 Oil and gas as petrochemical feedstock are used to make:
(d) All of the above
9 What is the heating value of pure methane?
(b) 1010 BTU/SCF
10 The first step in processing the fluid that comes out of a typical oil well is:
(a) To separate the oil, water and gas into individual streams in centralized
surface handling facilities
11 Price equivalency of the various hydrocarbons can be established based on:
(a) the thermal energy content.
12 Oil and natural gas are formed in what type of sedimentary rocks?
(c) Source rocks
13 What is the molecular weight of Carbon?
(c) 12
14 Which of the following hydrocarbon molecules has the highest energy content?
(a) Butane
15 Which of the following is a standard unit for measuring gas volumes?
(d) Standard cubic feet at 14.696 psi and 60 degrees F
16 What is the API gravity of a crude oil with a specific gravity of 0.86?
(c) 33 degrees API
17 What is the first process that produced crude oil should undergo in order to be
used in finished products?
(a) Refining
18 Which condition is needed to keep stored LPG in a liquid state?
(b) Elevated pressure
Figure 20: Traditional sectors comprising the oil and gas industry value chain from
Upstream to Downstream, from wholesale to retail markets and from crude to refined
products.
Upstream Sector
The Upstream sector is where oil and gas is discovered, developed, produced and sold to the
wholesale market. It represents the source of oil and gas supply and encompasses the
functions shown in Figure 21.
Exploration
Once an agreement is in place, the company's exploration team begins gathering the
subsurface data that it will use to select locations for drilling one or more exploration or
"wildcat" wells. If an exploration well indicates that oil and/or gas are present in potentially
commercial amounts, appraisal wells are then drilled to determine the extent of the discovery.
Technical specialists then estimate how much oil and gas are present in the subsurface. If the
resources are sufficiently large and the economics appear to be attractive, the field becomes a
candidate for development.
In many exploration areas several companies typically join together in a joint venture to share
the risks, technology and major capital investments required for full development. One
company is usually named to be the operator; however, all of the participating companies will
have a "say" in major decisions as specified in a Joint Operating Agreement.
Field Development
Once a promising discovery is made, teams of specialists prepare an optimal development
plan that integrates the field production schedule with market needs.
A technical team analyzes the subsurface reservoir in detail and prepares several
development options by selecting the number and location of development wells and
specifying the surface facilities required to process production into marketable
products.
A marketing team may enter into a Letter of Intent for the long-term sale of the
produced hydrocarbons, especially for natural gas, which is not yet an international
commodity.
Financial analysts incorporate the technical and marketing teams' work into financial
models and prepare a detailed report of the project economics for each proposed
development option. They include the fiscal terms of the Upstream Petroleum
Agreement so as to allocate the future cash flow to both the mineral owner and the
contractor or joint venture.
Ultimately, through an iterative process, the technical, marketing and financial specialists
decide on an optimal development plan and recommend it for funding. Once approved it is
submitted to the appropriate governmental agency for final review and approval.
After all approvals are received, engineering design and construction can begin. Development
wells are drilled and connected to centralized surface facilities, and one or more pipelines
(and, if necessary, port facilities) are constructed to deliver oil and gas to a sales or transfer
point, and from there to wholesale markets.
If the discovery is made offshore the development decision is more complicated. Now the
technical team must decide whether to set a fixed platform on the sea floor that is high
enough to sit above the surface to contain the wells' surface facilities and living quarters.
Alternatively, they may use various forms of floating systems including a floating vessel that
can serve as a "floating" production, storage and operating (FPSO) facility with the wellheads
on the FPSO or, in far deep water, on the sea floor. Whatever the decision, offshore field
development is much more expensive than onshore. A deepwater FPSO system off the coast
of Angola costs about $3 billion for a production rate of 250,000 B/D.
Figure 22b: Map view of proposed development plan for a gas field in Indonesia. It shows 15
well locations and five platforms.
Long-term Production
A newly developed field's oil and gas production often builds to a sustained plateau, which
may continue for many years before declining to a level where it is no longer economical.
During this time, engineering and operating personnel design, construct and manage the
producing wells and maintain surface facilities to meet daily production targets in a prudent
and safe manner, while applying best practices to maximize hydrocarbon recovery.
Meanwhile, marketing personnel manage the sale of produced hydrocarbons, and financial
personnel report fiscal results and distribute payments to the host government and project
participants. A field's producing life may be as short as 15 years, as was the case for some
recent Gulf Coast fields, or more than 50 years, such is the case for the currently producing
Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia.
Not all of the hydrocarbons that are identified as being present ("in-place") in a field can be
economically recovered with current technology. Those hydrocarbons that can be recovered
are referred to as reserves. A field's recovery factor is the ratio of its reserves to its
hydrocarbons in place. Typical recovery factors for oil reservoirs may range from around 15
to 70 percent. Because gas is lighter and has much lower viscosity, recovery factors are
usually higher, on the order of 60 to 85 percent.
Figure 24: Crude oil may be sold in the physical market FOB a loading port or CIF a
receiving port.
Crude oil prices are both volatile and transparent; therefore, the sale price of a cargo is
usually specified as a differential from one of three standard "marker" crude oils (Figure
25):
(Note: Marker crude oils are blends of crude oils within a narrow range of gravity that are
produced in substantial qualities, of a geographical trading location, with a market that does
not have a documented buyer or seller.)
The differentials may be positive or negative depending upon the location of the sale, quality
of the crude, supply/demand for the grade, seasonal needs and market perception. For
example, Nigeria's Bonny Light may sell for up to a $1.00 premium to Brent, and Colombia's
Cano Limon, a heavier crude, up to a $5.00 discount to WTI. The prices of daily transactions
in these and other crudes are reported by such entities as Platt's (www.platts.com) and may be
used as a basis for selling wholesale cargos.
Figure 25: Sales locations of the three major "marker" crudes: WTI, Brent and Dubai.
For example, a spot cargo sale of 220,000 barrels of crude was sold by a Latin American
producer. The WTI price is referenced in the agreement as the daily price published by
NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) for WTI in the next trading month ("prompt
month"). (www.nymex.com)
Crude oil may also be bought or sold on a fixed price basis in some future month using
special financial instruments called forward and future contracts (Table 5a). These contracts
allow buyers and sellers to enter into contracts in advance of a sale month at a fixed and
known price, thus avoiding price volatility and eliminating the volume risk.
Forward Contract
Standard contract for sale or purchase of commodity in some future month, traded
over the counter (no exchange) at fixed prices set by the oil trade. Participants are
large International Companies.
Futures Contract
Standard contracts for sale or purchase of specific quality, gravity and delivery point,
on a commodity exchange (NYMEX, IPE) traded for a number future months.
Physical delivery is made upon maturity. Many participants.
Table 5a: The two major forms of financial contracts used for oil and gas commodities.
Oil is specified as light, sweet crude (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Low
Sweet Mix, New Mexican Sweet, North Texas Sweet, Oklahoma Sweet, South
Texas Sweet)
The date of the purchase/sale is 30 months from the date of the contract.
A contract may be bought and sold many times before its closing date, which
normally takes place three business days before the 25th day of the month that
precedes the delivery month--for example, if a futures contract stipulated a
delivery month of December, then the closing date would be at least 3 days
before November 25 (i.e., November 22).
Once the closing date has passed, the holders of the contract are obliged to buy
or sell the 1000 bbls during the contract month, at the specified place of
delivery or some other arranged location.
You can appreciate that the crude oil market involves many different groups of oil companies,
traders and financial institutions that are involved in the physical and/or financial markets.
Although most of the major oil companies do not use financial instruments, many other
organizations do: E&P companies to manage price or volume risks, trading companies to
hedge positions (Glencoe, Vitol, Arcadia), financial institutions to arrange transactions
(Morgan Stanley, Barclays Bank, Louis Dreyfus) and investment banks and hedge funds for
speculation (Merrill Lynch, Prudential Bache). These entities use a number of different
financial instruments and strategies to manage risk, including hedges, options and swaps.
Midstream Sector
The Midstream Sector is where crude oil, natural gas and gas liquids are transported and
transformed into products for the retail market. Traditionally, produced fluids have been
refined or processed near the retail markets; however, the evolution of new oil and gas
products and/or the difficulty of locating new facilities in market areas have led to the more
recent construction of refinery and processing facilities near the producing facilities.
Figure 26: Shows Midstream Crude Oil Value Chain. In this case crude is transported to
refineries located near retail markets. In some cases refineries are located near producing
facilities and products are transported to the markets.
Crude Transportation
Midstream Transportation of crude oil typically takes place by pipeline and/or crude oil
tankers.
Crude Tankers
Crude oil tankers are typically large ships that carry cargoes to a single destination and then
return to the loading port with only seawater for ballast.
Crude oil tankers range from coastal vessels to the largest ships ever built. They are
classified according to their cargo-carrying capacity and suitability for particular trade routes,
as shown in Table 6.
Vessel
Classification
Panamax
Vessel
Classification
Figure 27: The MT Four Sun, a Suezmax Tanker, carrying 1 million barrels of crude oil to
the US Gulf Coast (Courtesy of Hansa Hamburg Shipping)
Figure 28 shows the WorldScale Index for several trade routes and cargo types.
Figure 28: WorldScale Index for several trade routes and cargo types. Note that the product
rates have been higher than the crude rates.Source: OPEC
Tanker Safety
There are a number of safety codes and pollution prevention/response initiatives that have
been imposed by governments or instituted voluntarily by the tanker industry. From a safety
perspective, for example, tankers serving the US and certain other countries are required by
the US Oil Pollution Act and, more recently, MARPOL (established by the International
Maritime Organization), to phase-out the industry's remaining single-hull tankers and replace
them with double hull tankers (Figure 29) by 2010. This was a substantial undertaking by the
industry.
Figure 29: A double hull configuration provides an extra layer of protection for the tanker's
cargo in case of an outer hull rupture.
Figure 30: There are two major LNG ship designs: the membrane design shown on the left
and the self-supporting Moss-Rosenberg spheres shown on the lower-right. Photo courtesy of
www.lngoneworld.com.
Figure 31: Crude production from the Prudhoe Bay Field, Alaska is transported by pipeline
to Valdez, Alaska and then by tankers to California refineries or to Panama, where the cargo
is transferred to smaller ships to make the transit through the Panama Canal and thence to
refineries in Houston.
There are thousands of miles of pipelines in this world and more being built every year. For
2013, for example, a total of 15,358 miles of pipelines are planned to be built: 4,469 miles of
crude oil lines, 4,726 miles of product lines and 6,163 miles of gas pipelines (Oil and Gas
Journal, Feb. 2013).
Pipelines represent a major investment and are built to meet long-term market demand. Their
designs are based on the most economical way to meet the demand. Greater efficiencies are
achieved at higher throughput rates using larger diameters lines (Figure 32).
Figure 33: The BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline carries crude from Azerbaijan to Turkey.
Crude oil is refined in the Midstream sector of the value chain, generally near the market, in
such places as the US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam and Singapore, where it can be integrated with
gas processing and petrochemical plants to achieve higher margins. When located near the
market it is also possible to optimize the daily "run" of a refinery to meet short-term product
needs. However, there are a number of refineries in the producing countries and others at
points between the upstream and the market (Figure 34).
Figure 34: Fawley refinery, located in Hampshire UK, has an annual production capacity of
15 million tonnes per year (330,000 barrels of crude oil per day). It provides 20% of the
UKs total refining capacity. Over 2,000 ships arrive to Fawleys marine terminal each year,
delivering more than 22 million tonnes of crude oil and transporting other products from the
site. About 80% of products is pumped through underground pipelines (450 miles (700km) to
distribution terminals as far afield as London, Bristol and Birmingham; 15% is taken by sea
to export markets; and about 5% travels by road or rail.(Source: ExxonMobil 2011)
Refineries (see Figure 14) can be relatively simple in design or very complex and may vary
widely in their throughput capacities. The more complex refineries cost much more to build
but are able to "crack" the heavier hydrocarbon molecules into the lighter gasoline molecules.
A simple hydroskimming refinery, with a capacity of 50,000 bbl/day, may cost $130 million
to build ($2,600 per barrel/day of capacity), while a more complex coking refinery, with a
capacity of 200,000 b/d, may cost $2 billion ($10,000 per barrel/day of capacity). The more
complex coking refineries can "crack" the longer chain, heavier hydrocarbon molecules into
shorter chain, lighter molecules that may be in greater demand and realize a greater "margin"
per barrel. US refineries tend to be quite complex because of the high market demand for
lighter molecules that can be made into gasoline blends. Europe, on the other hand, can have
less complex designs because their demand leans more toward the heaver molecules ("middle
distillates") used to make diesel fuel.
Figure 35 and Figure 36 show the daily demand for gasoline and middle distillate products,
respectively, in various regions of the world. Note the strong demand growth for all of these
products is driven by the transportation markets. Note also the proportionately higher use of
gasoline in the US compared to diesel in Europe and Asia Pacific. Where is the most rapid
growth in the last few years? Where did the consumption decline in 2008? Why?
Figure 35: Daily demand for gasoline in various regions of the world. (Source: BP
Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014).
Figure 36: Daily demand for middle distillate products in various regions of the world.
(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014).
Figure 37: Shows the Midstream Gas Value Chain from the point of gas supply to its delivery
to the Downstream Sector.
Gas Processing
Gas processing facilities may be built at the production facilities, typically at a centralized
location where gas may be gathered from a number of producing fields or near the market.
Most centralized plants are located at or near the Upstream sector, allowing the dry gas and
liquid products to be transported separately to their own markets.
In the De-Methanizer Column the gas stream is cooled to a temperature at which all of the
hydrocarbons, except methane, are transformed to liquid mixture. The methane gas comes off
the top of the column and enters the gas stream. The liquid mixture, referred to as NGLs,
comes off the bottom, where it may be sent to the refinery or petrochemical plants as
feedstocks or separated into individual hydrocarbon products by fractionation. Separate
fractionation columns are needed to separate ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasolines
into individual components. Ethane becomes a petrochemical feedstock (eventually becoming
plastic products), and the other liquid products are used as fuels or sent to
refineries/petrochemical complexes. If there is no local market for ethane it is left in the gas.
Figure 38a shows the Alliance gas pipeline that delivers "rich" gas from Western Canada to
the Chicago area. The main pipeline is 1,855 miles long, with 14 compressor stations spaced
roughly 120 miles apart. It operates at a maximum pressure of about 1,200 psi and delivers up
to 2 BCF of natural gas combining 80,000 gals of natural gas liquids daily to the Chicago
regional market (www.alliance-pipeline.com).
electronic "bulletin boards" that allow their third party shippers to nominate and confirm their
daily transportation and storage movements along the pipeline. The management of the daily
flows on one pipeline that may be connected to many other pipelines requires careful
planning and good IT systems. The North American Standards Board (http://www.naesb.org/)
sets out the standards used in the United States and the Uniform Network Code provides the
standards in the UK (https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/licences-codes-and-standards/codes/gascodes/uniform-network-code).
Figure 39 shows the natural gas supply and pipeline system in Europe. Notice that the only
major domestic source of gas supply is in the North Sea. However, there is not enough supply
in the North Sea to meet all of Europe's demand, so all other gas is supplied by fields in
Algeria and Russia. The brown line shows the Nordstream route that goes through the
exclusive economic zones of Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany.
Figure 39: Natural gas pipeline network in Europe. Gas flows into the system from Russia,
Norway, UK and Algeria. Pipelines in blue are currently in place and the brown line shows
the Nordstream route which is in operation as well.
Upstream pipelines, which deliver crude or petroleum products, for example, from producing
fields or refineries to a market sales point are often built, owned and operated by a
consortium of producers. Each producer owns rights to use the pipeline and pays annual fees
in proportion to its share of production. The Alaska pipeline, which carries Prudhoe Bay
crude to the port of Valdez, operates under this type of arrangement (http://www.alyeskapipe.com/).
Downstream Sector
The Downstream sector of the oil value chain where petroleum products are distributed to
retail markets is shown in Figure 40.
Figure 40: Shows the downstream sector of the oil value chain.
Petroleum products include the major transportation fuels (LPG, gasoline, diesel and jet
fuel), heating products (LPG, light fuel oil and residual fuel oil), specialty products
(lubricating oils, asphalt, etc.) or feedstocks to the petrochemical plants. These products are
transported from refineries by pipeline, ship, barge, truck and rail to regional distributions
centers where they are stored on a short-term basis in appropriate storage facilities. The
products are then transported to their final wholesale or retail outlets for sale to large and
small customers.
Product tankers (Figure 41) are built to carry different types of refined products ("clean"
cargos) simultaneously to multiple destinations-thus, although they are not as large as the
bigger crude oil tankers, their designs are more complex. They are typically divided into three
classes: Handy (25,000 to 50,000 deadweight tonnes), Large (50,000 to 100,000 deadweight
tonnes), and Very Large Product Carriers (VLPC - 100,000+ deadweight tonnes).
Figure 41: Product tanker on the St. Lawrence River in Quebec, Canada.
LPG Carriers (Figure 42) are special types of product tankers. They are refrigerated to
-50F (-46C) to avoid vaporization of the liquid cargo. In this way the LPGs do not need to
be pressurized during transportation.
Figure 42: This photo shows the refrigerated ship Berge Danuta 78,500 m3 that is used to
transport LPGs.
Petroleum products, as shown in Figure 43, are transported by pipeline in the Colonial
pipeline that runs from the Houston refinery area to the US East Coast. Products are separated
by transition fluids ("transmix"), where necessary, that are compatible with the products that
they isolate. This pipeline is 5,519 miles long and typically transports more than 2 million
barrels per day of up to 62 grades of products in minimum batches of 75,000 barrels. It has
many pump stations and storage terminals along the route. (http://www.naesb.org)
Figure 43: Different products are transported by pipeline from the US Gulf Coast refineries
to the East Coast as batches in pipelines as shown here for the colonial pipeline.
Figure 44: Shows the Downstream sector of the gas value chain.
Traditionally, an LDC has a monopoly to sell gas in its territory. It buys the gas from the
pipeline and charges its customers for both the gas and its distribution. Where market
liberalization has occurred at the distribution level (for example, in the UK and certain US
states), customers will buy their gas from their selected retail marketers and pay the
distribution company a fee only for distributing the gas.
LNG can also be delivered by truck directly to LDC's storage tanks of gas distribution
companies where it is vaporized as needed to meet short-term market swings (Figure 45).
Figure 45: Specially designed trucks allow LNG to be distributed to regional tank storage to
satisfy peaking service.
Review Questions
10 In the Oil and Gas Value Chain, the Midstream corresponds to:
(a) markets
(b) source of supply
(c) transportation and refining
1 What is the approximate number of tankers that make up the world's crude oil
tanker fleet?
(d) 3500
2 What are the most common financial instruments used to buy and sell crude oil on
a fixed price basis in some future month?
(c) Forward Contract and Futures Contract
3 What is the definition of a field's recovery factor?
(d) Its reserves divided by its hydrocarbons in place
4 What is the approximate carrying capacity of the largest vessel that can pass
through the Suez Canal?
(b) 160,000 DWT
5 What are the typical recovery factors for gas reservoirs?
(a) 60 to 85%
6 Which is a nominal freight rate index for a given voyage, expressed in $/metric ton,
published annually by the World Scale Association?
(a) WS 100
7 What is the maximum vessel size that can pass through the Panama Canal?
(b) 80,000 DWT
8 Which of the following is NOT one of the standard marker crude oils used for
pricing purposes?
(b) Northwest Blend in Calgary
9 What is the international safety code imposed by governments and also instituted
voluntarily by the tanker industry?
(b) MARPOL
10 In the Oil and Gas Value Chain, the Midstream corresponds to:
1 In the Oil and Gas Value Chain, the Midstream corresponds to:
(a) markets
(b) source of supply
(c) transportation and refining
2 What is the approximate carrying capacity of the largest vessel that can pass
through the Suez Canal?
(a) 80,000 DWT
(b) 160,000 DWT
(c) 120,000 DWT
(d) 200,000 DWT
3 What is the international safety code imposed by governments and also instituted
voluntarily by the tanker industry?
(a) ISO 9000
(b) MARPOL
(c) NFPA 72
(d) ILO Standards
4 Which of the following countries has quite complex refineries because of the high
market demand for the lighter molecules that can be made into gasoline?
(a) United States
(b) Kuwait
(c) India
(d) Italy
5 What is the maximum vessel size that can pass through the Panama Canal?
(a) 50,000 DWT
(b) 80,000 DWT
(c) 160,000 DWT
(d) 350,000 DWT
6 Which of the following is NOT one of the standard marker crude oils used for
pricing purposes?
1 In the Oil and Gas Value Chain, the Midstream corresponds to:
(c) transportation and refining
2 What is the approximate carrying capacity of the largest vessel that can pass
through the Suez Canal?
(b) 160,000 DWT
3 What is the international safety code imposed by governments and also instituted
voluntarily by the tanker industry?
(b) MARPOL
4 Which of the following countries has quite complex refineries because of the high
market demand for the lighter molecules that can be made into gasoline?
(a) United States
5 What is the maximum vessel size that can pass through the Panama Canal?
(b) 80,000 DWT
6 Which of the following is NOT one of the standard marker crude oils used for
pricing purposes?
(b) Northwest Blend in Calgary
7 To overcome the pressure losses in a natural gas pipelines, _____________ need to
be installed at specified intervals along the line
(a) compressors
8 Pipelines are often considered to be "natural" monopolies because:
(a) Their owners can control access to markets
9 What are the typical recovery factors for gas reservoirs?
(a) 60 to 85%
10 The daily and seasonal market demand swings for natural gas are managed by:
(d) Underground gas storage facilities
National oil companies are formed by national government to participate in one or all value
chain sectors. The government may own all or a major portion of its shares. There are over
115 national oil companies (NOCs), but some are more active players than others. We may
classify them into four broad categories:
1. Seekers have very limited or no reserves, and are seeking to attract foreign
exploration companies.
2. Guardians of Reserves have some reserves, but are not active operators.
3. Operators have reserves, own surface facilities and are active operators in their own
country.
4. Internationalists are active oil and gas industry players both at home and abroad.
For an NOC to move from one category to another, for example, from Guardian of Reserves
to Operator, it must have sufficient capital and develop special competencies in petroleum
technology, operations, management and finance.
Only a few NOCs can be considered Internationalists. They include Petrobras (Brazil),
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), Statoil (Norway), Petronas (Malaysia), Petroleos de
Venezuela and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. These companies have entered the
international arena to grow their business and develop high levels of technical and
management competency. Other NOCs-notably PetroChina and the CNOOC (China) and
the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC, India)-are rapidly expanding internationally,
mainly to gain access to energy so as to support their growing economies. Gazprom, the
Russian national gas company, is very active in forming international joint ventures,
especially in Europe, that allow it to sell its gas into those markets.
Figure 46 shows the top countries in terms of domestic crude oil reserves as of 2013. For
comparison, the reserves of a few major companies are also shown. Figure 47 is a similar
chart for natural gas reserves.
Figure 46: List of producing countries and larger companies in terms of crude oil reserves,
with major companies shown for comparison. Individual companies are shown in red.
(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014 and Company information)
Figure 47: Listing of countries and companies by natural gas reserves as of 2013. (Source:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014 and Company information)
OPEC
Much of the world's petroleum is found in countries that have oil and gas production
capacities in excess of their domestic energy needs. This excess is exported to satisfy
international demand. In 1960, five of these countries - Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and
Venezuela - formed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the
stated purpose of "seeking to assert its Member Countries' legitimate rights in an
international oil market" (www.opec.org, 2005). In addition to its five founding members, the
OPEC countries today include Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates,
Ecuador (rejoined in December 2007), and the new member Angola (2007). Indonesia
suspended its membership since January 2009.
OPEC exerts control over the world oil market by increasing or decreasing the combined
daily exports of its member countries through a country-by-country production quota system
based on each country's oil reserves. While non-OPEC countries produce to their productive
capacity, OPEC reviews and adjusts its target production levels at least quarterly after
reviewing the oil prices, inventory levels and near-term world needs for oil products (e.g.,
winter heating, summer driving).
Saudi Arabia, the country with the highest production capacity in the world, in excess of 10
million barrels per day, has been the major "swing" producer. OPEC countries have produced
about 40 percent of the daily oil production for the past 15 years. This is expected to increase
to 50% by 2030. There is no organization similar to OPEC in the gas industry.
TOTAL
226.7
France
ENI
184.1
Italy
Petronas
160.2
Malaysia
Pemex
155.6
Mxico
StatoilHydro
141.0
Norway
BHP Billiton Petroleum
129.3
Australia
Conoco-Phillips
117.1
USA
Rosneft
115.7
Russia
BG PLC
106.1
UK
Lukoil
98.9
Russia
Repsol YPF S.A.
85.6
Spain
Suncor Energy Inc.
76.1
Canada
September, 2013
Table 7: Listing of producing companies with assets greater than $75 billion. Source Oil and
Gas Journal, September 2013
Service Companies, consultants and other specialists, ranging from such seismic
service companies (CGG, CogniSeis, Geco-Prakla, Geoquest), drilling contractors
(Global Marine, Global SanteFe), integrated service companies (Schlumberger,
Halliburton, Baker Hughes) and surface facilities construction Contractors (Kellogg,
Brown and Root, Foster Wheeler, Technip, Fluor, Parsons) to independent
consultants, training companies, bankers, investment services, auditors and others
who provide essential services to the Upstream oil and gas sectors. (see
http://www.explorationist.com/Service.htm).
Manufacturers, who provide specialty equipment, tubular goods and supplies to the
industry and Consultants, who assist with analysis and design services
(www.rigzone.com).
Midstream transportation companies, such as oil and gas Pipeline Companies (El
Paso, Gazprom), and crude, petroleum products and LNG Shipping Companies
(dispersed ownership with many tankers owned by Greek companies).
Traders, who are specialists in the marketing and trading of hydrocarbons in the
wholesale or retail markets (Glencore, Vitol Arcadia).
Utility companies, who transport and distribute natural gas and/or electricity to
customers, often under regulated conditions (Tokyo Gas, Consolidated Edison,
Centrica, RWE, E.ON and Duke), those companies that use gas or other fuels to
generate electricity as Independent Power Producers or regulated entities.
Petroleum products
Natural gas
Coal
Other forms
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Energy Demand
"Economic growth remains the major determinant of energy demand. The link between
energy demand and economic output remains roughly linear" (World Energy Outlook 2004,
IEA (www.iea.org).
The energy demand in a given country and indeed throughout the world, increases with
population and GDP per-capita growth. It is inhibited somewhat by increased energy prices
(including energy taxes) and economic downturns. It is further impacted by government
policies relating to industrialization, subsidization of energy prices, and urbanization (in
developing countries, people become connected to energy in the cities).
In order to appreciate energy demand, it is helpful for us to review the process used by the
International Energy Agency ("IEA") in its published world energy demand scenarios. Its
economists divide the world into regions and countries as shown in Figure 48. The OECD
(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) members are the developed
countries of North America, Europe and Asia; the Transition Economies are Former Soviet
Union countries.
Figure 48: Countries and regions that constitute study units for the IEA world energy
demand analysis.
The IEA divides the energy market into four major categories as shown in Table 9, and then
projects the demand for each form of energy in each of these markets for each geographical
unit shown in Table 10.
Four Major IEA Energy Market Areas
Residential/Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Electricity
Population
GDP
OECD
0.4
2.1
North America
0.8
2.5
Europe
0.3
1.7
Pacific
0.0
1.8
Non-OECD
1.0
4.8
E.Europe/Eurasia
-0.1
3.3
China
0.2
5.7
India
0.9
6.3
Middle East
1.5
3.7
Africa
2.3
4.0
Latin America
0.8
3.3
World
0.9
3.6
Table 10: Population and GDP Growth Projections, 2011-2035. (Source: World Energy
Outlook OECD/IEA, 2013).
We see immediately that GDP's will grow in all regions but more rapidly in the Developing
Countries, where populations will also grow substantially. India leads the way with GDP
growth but, its population will grow more modestly. Africa has both substantial population
and GDP growth.
Overall the world population growth rate will moderate but is still expected to exceed 8.5
billion by 2035. More importantly GDP's will grow in all regions, with high growth rates in
the developing countries, especially China and India. About 68 percent of growth in energy
demand during the next 25 years will come from the developing countries.
Primary energy demand growth is shown in Table 11. In quantitative terms, primary energy is
expected to grow at an average rate of 1.2 percent, with fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal)
accounting for about 80 percent of energy growth. Oil demand will increase from 82 million
b/d in 2011 to 94 million bbl/day in 2035, driven by the transportation markets. Coal and
natural gas demand will increase at the rate of 0.7 and 1.6 percent per annum respectively,
driven mainly by the power generation market. Other renewables (wind, solar, geothermal,
tidal and wave energy) grow faster than any other source, 7.4 percent average annual rate.
Primary Energy Demand Projections 2011-2035
(million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Average
Annual
2011
2035
Growth Rate %
Coal
3,773
4,428
0.7
Oil
4,108
4,461
0.5
Gas
2,787
4,119
1.6
Nuclear
674
1,119
2.1
Hydro
300
501
2.2
1,300
1,847
1.5
127
711
7.4
13,609
17,386
1.2
Bioenergy
Other Renewables
Total
Table 11: World primary energy demand by sector, 2011-2035 (Source: World Energy
Outlook OECD/IEA, 2013)
This projected demand growth in daily production of oil and gas during this 25 year period is
simply enormous and will strain the industry's resources and capabilities. You will certainly
ask "Is it possible?" or "Where will it come from?" For that we need to turn to the supply side
of the equation - who will supply it and from what sources?
Hydrocarbon Supply
Classification of Hydrocarbon Resources and Reserves
Hydrocarbon resources are being found every day in the world, just as they are being
produced each day to meet demand. A new discovery adds to our known hydrocarbon
resource base but production reduces our reserves base. The industry's terminology for
classifying known sources of oil and gas is shown in Figure 49. This chart is published by
the Society of Petroleum Engineers and is an important tool for engineers who make these
assessments.
certainty Low, Medium (Best) and High (1C, 2C,3C or 1P, 2P,3P). Of
course, after a reservoir has been producing for some time, engineers
have greater amounts of reservoir data to evaluate. This allows them to
refine their estimates and move reserves from a less certain to a more
certain category.
As we discuss reserves, keep in mind that the industry has substantial more "resources" that
have been discovered and not yet developed and converted to "reserves". They will be the
targets of exploration and development programs in the future.
Figure 50: World crude oil reserves as of January 2014 (Source: BP Statistical Review of
World Energy, June 2014).
Notwithstanding the fact that the production of crude oil has increased annually, thereby
depleting the crude reserves base, exploration and enhanced recovery have caused the
reserves to increase over the past 28 years as shown in Figure 51.
Figure 51: Increase in crude oil reserves over the past 28 years. (Source: BP Statistical
Review of World Energy, June 2014).
In fact, our inventory of crude reserves, measured as the R/P ratio (current reserves divided
by current annual production) is about 53 years.
Figure 52: Crude oil production, consumption and trade (2013). (Source: BP Statistical
Review of World Energy, June 2014)
Table 12 shows the world's major producing, consuming and importing countries in 2013.
Note that Saudi Arabia is the largest producer followed by Russia; that the USA is the largest
consumer by far and that six countries, although different, produce and consume about 50
percent of each. The United States, Europe, China, Japan and India account for about 70
percent of imports. Consider the geopolitical pressures that these imbalances cause! They
raise issues of both security of supply and security of demand.
Rank
Production
Consumption
Imports
Exports
Coun
try
Millio
n
bbl/d
ay
Count
ry
Millio
n
bbl/d
ay
Countr
y
Millio
n
bbl/d
ay
Count
ry
Millio
n
bbl/d
ay
Saudi
Arabia
11.5
USA
18.9
Europe
12.6
Saudi
Arabia
8.5
Russia
10.8
China
10.8
USA
9.8
Russia
7.5
USA
10.0
Japan
4.6
China
7.7
Iraq
3.1
China
4.2
India
3.7
Other
Asia
7.6
UAE
2.9
Pacific*
5
Canad
a
3.9
Russia
3.3
Japan
4.5
Kuwait
2.6
UAE
3.6
Saudi
Arabia
3.1
India
4.1
Nigeri
a
2.3
Subtotal
MMbbl/day
44.1
44.3
46.3
26.9
World Total
MMbbl/day
86.8
91.3
55.3
55.3
of 51%
49%
84%
49%
Percent
Total
Figure 53: History of crude oil production and price of Brent and West Texas Intermediate
marker crudes. (Source: EIA and OMR OECD/IEA, 2014)
High energy prices in 2008 led to significant reductions in product demand, especially in the
US and Europe, after the price at the pump reached all-time highs in June. High prices also
led to increases in exploration and production of oil and unconventional gas activity and
substantial run up in contractor (e.g. drilling) and commodity (steel, etc.) costs until the third
quarter of 2008 when the financial crisis occurred. Notwithstanding the greater investment in
both oil and gas exploration Matthew Simmons pointed out that the majors have not
increased their daily oil production significantly since 2000 and was concerned that the supermajor Saudi Arabian oil fields the linchpin of future supply projections may not live up
to their perceived recovery potential. He felt that the continued growth in demand, driven by
economic growth especially in Asia, will lead a return to high oil prices as the world financial
crisis abates. (Simmons, Matthew R.: Twilight in the Desert, The Coming Saudi Oil Shock
and the World Economy, Wiley (2005)). As you can see during 2013 oil prices are high again!
Stay tuned!
Only time will tell how the price changes; however, it is clear that price volatility will
continue, that the industry has major challenges in meeting primary demand and that the oil
business continues to have a major impact on the world's economy. At $100/bbl every day
$8.6 billion change hands simply in crude oil sales! (86 million barrels per day x $100 per
barrel = $8.6 billion).
The natural gas story is very similar to that of crude oil. Annual production has increased
significantly in recent years in response to the higher demand of the more efficient combinedcycle gas-fired power plants.
Natural gas reserves, as of January 2014, are shown in Figure 54 by region of the world.
Note that the world's reserves total 6,557 trillion cubic feet (TCF) (185.7 trillion m 3) have
grown by 17 percent in the last 10 years. Of this total, 1,867 TCF or 28 percent are located in
the Former Soviet Union and 31 percent are in Iran and Qatar. In the U.S. the natural gas
reserves have increased about 22 percent in the last 10 years mainly due to the development
of new sources of shale gas.
Figure 54: This figure shows the location of conventional world's gas reserves by region.
Note how the Middle East and the Former Soviet Union control more than two-thirds of the
total. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014)
Figure 55 shows that we are not running out of natural gas. Despite growing annual
production rates, gas reserves have continued to grow. The major issue, of course, is that,
except for the potential unconventional gas resources of the US, they are located far from the
three major markets: US, Europe and Asia.
Figure 55: We see here the growth in reserves of natural gas from 1985 to 2013. Source: BP
Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014
A reserves statistic that energy economists like to use is the reserves/production ratio (R/P
ratio). It tells us, in the case of natural gas, that, at the current annual gas production rate, we
have sufficient proved gas reserves to last 56 years. For comparison the R/P ratio for crude oil
is 53 years. As mentioned above we have sizeable gas reserves - they are just not located
where we need them!
The major regional trade movements are from the Former Soviet Union, Africa and the
Middle East to Europe, Asia Pacific and North America.
In 2013 global natural gas production increased about 1.2 TCF compared to 2012 led by the
US, Russia, and the Middle East countries. The US natural gas production represents
approximately 21% of the total gas produced in the world.
Figure 56: This figure shows the natural gas production, consumption and trade condition
for each region of the world during 2013. (Source: Source: BP Statistical Review of World
Energy, June 2014)
The major gas producing and consuming players on a country basis are listed in Table 13.
Note that the major producing countries by far are the USA and Russia. They are also the
major consuming countries followed by Iran, China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Major
Country
Gas
Production
and
Consumption
(2013)
(billion m3 /year)
Major Gas Producing Countries
Major Gas Consuming Countries
Country
Production
Country
Consumption
USA
688
USA
737
Russia
605
Russia
413
Iran
167
Iran
162
Qatar
159
China
162
Canada
155
Japan
117
Norway
117
Saudi Arabia
103
World Total
3363.9
World Total
3314.4
Percent of Total
56%
Percent of Total
51%
Table 13: Major Country Gas Production and Consumption 2013. (Source: BP Statistical
Review of World Energy, June 2014)
The major gas trading between countries takes place by pipeline between Russia and Europe,
between Canada and the USA and within Europe, that is, from Norway and the Netherlands
to other European countries. The major LNG trade takes place into Japan followed by South
Korea from Asia Pacific, Middle East and more recently from Russia.
Natural
Gas
Exporting
and
Importing
Countries
(2013)
(billion m3 /year)
Major Gas Importing Countries
Major Gas Exporting Countries
Country
Imports
Country
Exports
Japan
119.0
Russian Federation 225.5
Germany
95.8
Qatar
125.5
USA
81.6
Norway
106.2
Italy
57.1
Canada
78.9
South Korea
54.2
Netherlands
53.4
China
51.9
USA
44.5
World Total
1035.9
World Total
1035.9
Percent of Total
44%
Percent of Total
61%
Table 14: Major Natural Gas Exporting and Importing Countries 2013. (Source: BP
Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014)
Regulated Prices
In developing countries with plentiful gas supplies and a nationally owned gas company, the
price may be set at a relatively low level and subsidized by the government. Where the gas
industry is vertically integrated and regulated, the gas price and transportation/distribution
charges are set by one or more government agencies. In the pre-liberalization days in the US,
the price of gas that moved in interstate commerce was federally regulated at a relatively low
level ($0.33/million BTU). Pipelines entered into long-term purchase contracts with
producers, added a regulated transportation charge to the price and sold the gas to the local
distribution companies that, in turn, added a distribution fee and sold it to end consumers.
This constituted full regulation of both the gas price and the tariffs required to deliver the gas
to the end consumer.
price of oil on a thermal energy equivalent basis. Examples of this type of indexing are
shown in Figure 57 for the sale of gas to customers in the Netherlands before open access.
Note that the price to residential customers is indexed to light fuel oil on a quarterly moving
average basis and that to industrial customers is indexed to heavy fuel oil on a more
immediate basis.
Figure 57: This figure shows how gas price was indexed to oil on a thermal energy basis in
the Netherlands from 1989-2001. Note how it was indexed to light fuel oil for residential
customers (left side) and heavy fuel oil for industrial customers (right side).
LNG delivered to the Japanese market, for example, is typically sold at a base price indexed
to the Japanese Crude Cocktail ("JCC"), which is the average price paid for all crude oil
imported into Japan in a specific period and reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
Gas-to-Gas Competition
In Open Access countries, such as the United States and the UK, the price of gas is
determined on a gas-to-gas competition basis. In essence the price is set by gas producers
competing with each other in monthly and daily markets. In the United States the major
trading hub is at Henry, Louisiana ("Henry Hub"), where purchased gas may be transferred
within an integrated system of onshore and offshore pipelines for delivery to end customers.
Sales are made on monthly and daily spot basis. The recent history of the monthly Henry Hub
Index price is shown in Figure 58.
Figure 58: Shows the monthly Henry Hub price, which was relatively flat for many years and
then increased as gas supply became tight and oil prices grew rapidly in the 2000-2008
period. After the world economic crisis during the third quarter of 2008, and the USA shale
gas boom, gas prices came down and have been stable since 2009 to these days.
There is also a competitive market for pipeline transportation capacity between Henry Hub
and other trading hubs throughout North America, as shown in Figure 59. The difference in
price between Henry Hub and other hubs is referred to as the "Basis Difference", which
represents the price of pipeline transportation capacity charged by these companies that own
the long-term capacity and "release" it to others. It is normally high in winter and low in the
summer.
Figure 59: shows the price of gas and basis differentials at various trading hubs throughout
North America on July 21, 2014 (Courtesy of Energy Intelligence Group).
(www.energyintel.com)
The reference gas price, in the fully liberalized "open access" UK gas industry, is referred to
as the Heren Index. It is set daily at the National Balancing Point (NBP), a fictitious point in
the UK transport system through which the entire amount of gas is considered to flow. The
flow includes all supply "entries" (gas terminals onshore and offshore, gas storage) and sales
"exits" (local supply zones, bulk buyers, and gas storage).
A second spot market point in Europe, now gaining in importance with the liberalization of
the gas market there, is located at Zeebrugge, Belgium. Zeebrugge is not only the southern
point of connection of the Interconnector pipeline from the UK, but also the location of the
recently expanded Zeebrugge LNG receiving terminal as shown in Figure 60.
Figure 60: Shows the Interconnector pipeline joining Bacton, UK and Zeebrugge, Belgium.
Gas can flow in either direction depending on demand and prices. (www.interconnector.com)
Figure 61: Shows that the LNG prices in several key markets of the world tracked each other
quite closely in the first half of 2008. Then prices fluctuated significantly in the US, UK and
China markets in response to events in each of the respective markets as the financial crisis
hit the world economy in the last quarter of 2008. (Source: Global View, EIA, World Bank
Commodity Prices)
Latin America. About 60 percent of supply comes from natural gas processing plants and the
balance from refineries. The US and Canada have the highest LPG production at about 24%
of the world total, followed closely by the Middle East and Asia. (Source Oil & Gas Journal,
June 3, 2013).
LPGs are commodities with major trading taking place in three key centers: Mont Belvieu,
TX (near Houston), ARA, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, and Saudi Aramco in the Arabian
Gulf. The prices for propane and butane in these locations since 2000 are shown in Figures
62 and 63. Note how the prices tend to rise in the winter months and fall in the summer
months in response to seasonal demand.
Figure 62: Price of Propane in the last fourteen years.(Source: Global View and Reuters)
Figure 63: Price of Butane in the last fourteen years. (Source: Global View and Reuters)
Final Thoughts
In this module you have gained a broad overview of the oil and gas industry, its structure,
sectors, players, and the economics of: the supply-demand-pricing both oil and gas. As we
said at the outset, it is a big, integrated industry that affects all of our lives in many ways. We
now encourage you to look deeper into the industry by pursuing other modules in this series.
By doing so you will learn much more about the fascinating oil and gas business.
Review Questions
(a) 10 to 20 years
(b) 21 to 30 years
(c) 31 to 40 years
(d) > 50 years
3 The UK gas market is:
(a) A fully liberalized open access market
(b) A regulated market
(c) Linked to the price of oil
4 Which of the following countries is NOT among the founding members of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)?
(a) Qatar
(b) Venezuela
(c) Kuwait
(d) Iraq
(e) Iran
5 What percent of the world's crude output is produced by OPEC countries?
(a) 25 percent
(b) 40 percent
(c) 55 percent
(d) 65 percent
6 Which of the following National Oil Companies is considered as an active industry
player both at home and abroad?
(a) Statoil (Norway)
(b) Petrobras (Brazil)
(c) GAZPROM (Russia)
(d) ONGC (India)
(e) All of the above
(f) (a) and (b)
7 Which of these companies can be classified as a vertically integrated global
company:
(a) Valero refinery
(d) Iraq
(e) Iran
4 The primary factor(s) affecting energy demand is (are):
(a) GDP
(b) Population growth
(c) a) and b)
(d) Government policies
5 Discovered resources that have not been developed because of a lack of reservoir
information or commercial viability, are called:
(a) Possible resources
(b) Contingent resources
(c) Assessed resources
(d) Probable resources
6 Typically, __________ consumers are capable of switching fuels between natural
gas and fuel oil very quickly depending on price.
(a) Industrial
(b) Residential
(c) Commercial
7 More than 30 percent of all crude oil imports are delivered to:
(a) The United States alone
(b) The United States and Japan
(c) The United States, Europe and China
(d) The United States, Japan and Europe combined
8 What percent of the world's crude output is produced by OPEC countries?
(a) 25 percent
(b) 40 percent
(c) 55 percent
(d) 65 percent
9 What is the major natural gas trading hub in the United States?
(a) New York City Gate
10 Which of the following regions have the two largest natural gas reserves?
(b) Former Soviet Union and the Middle East
Websites of Importance
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) (www.nymex.com) in New York
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) (www.theice.com ) in London
Acknowledgments
IHRDC gratefully acknowledges the assistance and/or media contributions
of the following companies in the publication of this module.
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
http://www.anadarko.com
Baker Hughes
http://www.bakerhughes.com
BP
http://www.bp.com
Chevron Corporation
http://www.chevron.com
Cable News Network
http://www.cnnimagesource.com
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
http://www.oxy.com
Qatargas
http://www.qatargas.com.qa
The Port Of Houston Authority
http://www.portofhouston.com
Western Geco
http://www.westerngeco.com