1) Explain the benefits and risks of delaying a decision.

Provide two (2) examples based on:

a) Your personal experience of delaying a decision.
Decision making means to choose on what deed to take by selecting among the choices given. The
following form of applied thinking is problem-solving where we must to learn to provide a solution,
answer and conclusion to a problem. It is all about gaining the skill to adequately reduce uncertainty
and doubt about another possibility to permit an equitable choice to be made. Therefore we do need to
concentration on the information-gathering function of decision making. Two main theories, we
should know is first of all there must be a handful real alternatives to decide on from. Then, every
decision we make has to be aligned with some form of normal verdict. Creative and critical thinking
generally derives hand in hand, we would need to learn how to think critically before we can evaluate
the solution in solving a problem, and we would need to learn in what way to think innovatively in
producing new ideas to solve problems as well as make decisions. As stated by Robert Harris (1998,
2009, 2012), decision making is the study of noticing and selecting alternatives based on the standards
and predilections of the decision maker. In the process of making a decision, this signifies that there
are alternate selections to be considered, where we not only intention to recognise as various of the
possible alternatives as potential, but also concentrate on discovery the superlative alternate with the
uppermost prospect of triumph as well as which will best align with our objectives, principles,
requirements, lifestyle and so on. Decision making occurs every day in our lives as well as it involves
major decisions. For example based on my experience, its time to send my car for service. I keep on
delaying until my car breakdown. The risk I faced was about to attend an interview, but had to use
public transport and arrive interview place late. Due to that I have missed out the interview
session. Another example is I just joined a company for 3 months and got another offer with higher
pay. And I keep delay whether should I accept the offer or not. And so, I made decision to refuse the
offer. Appropriately, the new company is going to closed down. As said by Robert Harris (1998, 2009,
2012), procrastinating a verdict for as long as practically possible, then it offers three benefits, Firstly,
it will produce a superior decision environment with superfluous information as well as time for
observant and wide analysis. Afterward, another probability that is new might be recognized or
moulded. Last of all, with more phases, we as the decision maker might adjust our tendencies. With

more times emanates more thought in forming and deciding new intuitions as well as maturity. Every
single decision comprises an assured extent of risk. The peril of delaying a decision is as the decision
environment continues to progress, the decision maker might become overwhelmed with too much of
information as well as makes an inferior decision. Some alternatives could become unobtainable
because of events happening during the delay. In uncommon cases, where the decision was among
two, both alternatives could become unobtainable, leaving the verdict maker with nothing. Lastly, we
are living in a competitive environment, as a quicker competitor could make the decision and gain
benefit over us while we let our verdict environment grow, such as one more talent company signing
up a singer while your talent company delays the decision.
b) Your family member/friend on his or her experience of delaying a decision.
In systematic terms, a decision as stated by Hastie and Dawes (2010, 23), is a reaction in a
circumstance that is serene of 3 parts, first of all, there is more than one probable course of deed under
deliberation in the choice set. Next, the decision manufacturer can form anticipations regarding
forthcoming events and upshots following from each course of deed, anticipations that can be
described in terms of degrees of probabilities or else conviction. Lastly, the significances allied with
the probable results can be evaluated on an assess continuum gritty by current aims and individual
values. Based on my family experience, my sister delays a decision of buying a house, the benefit of
shes delay the decision is she have enough money to book a big house with reasonable price. And
because of she is looking for better house and trust the house price estimation will goes down. But the
risk she faced is the house is fully booked and she missed out. The price for the house increase and
she couldn't find a better house with that reasonable price and have to buy a small house with higher
price. My best friend receives a scholarship to further study in pharmacy and medical course. Her
interest was in pharmacy. But just because of her mother loves to see her as a doctor, she delay to
decide it because she is trying to convince her mother on her interest and the risk she was faced is she
mistakenly missed out the pharmacy offer date because of delaying the decision.

2) Explain in your own words what are contingent decisions and contingent alternatives. Provide an
appropriate example for each based on your own experience.
Contingent decisions are decisions would have been made but held in abeyance until some states of
affairs are met. For instance, the contingent decision that I have experienced is I have decided to buy
an Iphone 6s but only if I can get it for a cheap price. Another sample of my experience is I decide to
accept the Air Asia job offer if they agree to pay me RM2500. Majority individuals convey around a
set of already made, contingent decisions is just waiting for the correct opportunity or circumstances
to ascend. Energy, obtainability, time, opportunity, price, encouragement, all of these factors can
figure into an essential circumstances that need to be met before we can deed on our decision. Some
of the contingent decisions are tacit or even exist below the alertness of the decision manufacturer.
Contingent alternatives are very alike with contingent decisions, but in contingent alternatives, we
create our own verdict by considering comprise of two or extra selections of deed in a line, one of its
deed which will be taken when the suitable trigger happens. Often this trigger is an event or more
information. Generally the trigger is happens with whichever further information or an event
obligatory. We choose by expending contingent alternatives, for instance, based on my experience my
sister and I plan to go hiking if tomorrow the day is sunny and clear, and we plan will go to the gym if
the day is raining. One more sample that I have experienced is I have plan to surprise my mom on her
birthday, if my mom went out to the market, I will deco the house and surprise her with the cake when
shes back home, but if my mom didnt go to the market, I will bring her to restaurant and surprise her
there.

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3) Explain any five (5) fallacies that weaken arguments in decision making.
Provide an example based on your own experience and how to avoid those
fallacies for each of the fallacy
Misconceptions are defects in nous that deteriorate quarrels. We have to learn to
detect them in our own thinking so that we can reinforce our condition, as well as
the quarrels of others when evaluating our fortes. Misconceptions are defects within
the reasoning or lucidity of a quarrel. Here have 5 misconceptions that weaken an argument in
decision making.

)b) Generalization
Erroneous use of inductive reasoning when there are too few examples to
verify a fact. For instance, my friend Lina failed math subject. Anis and Tresh
failed math. Therefore I determine that most of the learners who takes math
subject will fail it. To simplify and considerate broad conditions, a theorist
cannot roughly check every single example. Inductive reasoning should be
typical of the problem or situation at hand of the example that has been used.
Maybe Lina, Anis, and Tresh are extremely poor students. Maybe they were
not feeling well and missed out too many lectures and it makes them hard to
pass. There are various way to ward off from the misconceptions such as the
sample that are being used. Is it good and large enough to support your
conclusion? You may want to develop your sample size or illustrate a simple
closure by applying the word some or many. To avoid most students to
fail decision making a logician should get a very large sample in an effective
way.

False Cause
This type of false cause appears when the writer falsely expects that
because of the first incident happens it would effect and give a bad
impact later on. For example,.... (pija buat contoh kat sini) Because the
first incident happens earlier would cause the bad luck later. Potential
causes must be examined before affirm that event or happening crisis
alone earlier in time caused an event or behaviour later.

Personalisation
Personalisation itself means the advice or argument must be wrong because the person
that presents the talks and arguments doesnt follow it themselves. For example, (pija
buat contoh) So to support an argument it is based on ones personality or attitude that
makes the argument strong.

Red herring is the fallacy known as Tu Quoque (Latin for "And you too!"), which
asserts that the advice or argument must be false simply because the person presenting
the advice doesn't follow it herself. For instance, "Reverend Jeremias claims that theft
is wrong, but how can theft be wrong if Jeremias himself admits he stole objects when
he was a child? How to avoid ; Focus on the merits and supporting data of an
argument, not on the personality or behaviour of the people making the
arguments.

Everyone Does It
Also known by its Latin name ad populum, or against many. Justifying an issue
based on only the number of people involved. You too: A parent explains the
evidence of the risks of binge drinking. The child rejects the arguments, saying,
When you were my age, you drank too. My mom explain how good to eat
vegetables for healthy life, and I rejected the arguments, saying When you were
my age, you didnt eat vegetables too. How to avoid; The popular position is not
always the right one. Be wary of arguments that rely exclusively on one set of
numbers.

Weak Analog
Using irrelevant similarities in two objects to draw a conclusion. You can draw an
analogy between just about any two objects or ideas.(avoid) If you are using an
analogy, make sure you identify the properties relevant to the argument you are
making and see if both share those properties.

The false analogy fallacy also relates to inductive reasoning and results
when the situations or circumstances being compared are not similar
enough. A common false analogy that people make is comparing
something to putting a person on the moon: If we can put a person on
the moon, why cant we figure out a way to make the tax code easier to
understand? This question doesnt acknowledge the different skill sets
and motivations involved in the two examples being compared.

False Dichotomy
Fallacy that occurs when a speaker presents an audience only two options and
argues they must choose one or the other. This fallacy occurs when a writer

builds an argument upon the assumption that there are only two choices or
possible outcomes when actually there are several. Outcomes are seldom so
simple. This fallacy most frequently appears in connection to sweeping
generalizations: Either we must ban X or the American way of life will
collapse. "We go to war with Canada, or else Canada will eventually grow in
population and overwhelm the United States." "Either you drink Burpsy Cola,
or you will have no friends and no social life." Either you must avoid either/or
fallacies, or everyone will think you are foolish. The false dilemma fallacy
occurs when a speaker rhetorically backs his or her audience into a corner,
presenting them with only two options and arguing that they must choose either
one or the other. This is also known as the either/or fallacy. Critical thinkers
know that the world cant be simplified to black and white, good and bad, or right
and wrong. Yet many people rely on such oversimplifications when making
arguments. A speaker who argues that immigrants to the United States should
learn English or go back to their own country doesnt acknowledge that there are
many successful immigrants who have successful lives and contribute to society
without speaking English fluently. The speaker also ignores the fact that many
immigrants do not have access to English language instruction or the time to take
such classes because they are busy with their own jobs and families. Granted,
such a rhetorical strategy does make it easier to discuss complex issues and try to
force people into a decision, but it also removes gray area in the form of context
that can be really important for making a decision. Be critical of speakers and
messages that claim there are only two options from which to choose.

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