3

CHAPTER

Aviation Activity
and Forecasts

A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y
A N D FO R E C A S T S

3.1

AV I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

FORECASTS

Chapter 3

3 . 1 AV I AT IO N AC T IV IT Y O V E RV IEW
3.1.1 Role of Toronto National and International
TABLE 3-1

W ORLD RANKING TORONTO PEARSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Total Passengers
Aircraft Movements
Total Cargo*

1997
25
25
48

1998
25
23
49

1999
25
28
45

2000
27
27
50

2001
26
22
53

2002
29
27
56

2003
29
29
60

2004
29
23
61

2005
29
23
42

2006
29
20
38

Source: Airports Council International Worldwide Airport Trafc Reports

*Understated Toronto Pearson cargo volumes prior to 2005 do not include mail or regional carriers cargo volumes

This chapter discusses the future

demand for air travel at Toronto
Pearson International Airport. The
ability of the Airport to accommodate this demand will be discussed
in subsequent chapters.
Since the first aircraft touched
down on its runway over 70 years
ago, Toronto Pearson has become
Canadas principal airport, as well
as one of the busiest airports in
the world. The central geographical location of Toronto within
Canada, its large local market, and
its proximity to the U.S. market
make the Airport important for
both mainline and feeder services
of major Canadian and international airlines.
Toronto Pearsons status as one of
the worlds busiest airports is illustrated in Table 3-1, which shows
Torontos ranking in the top 30
airports for the last decade in
terms of passenger traffic and
aircraft movements. Comparative

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

airports include Singapore,

Philadelphia, Tokyo Narita,
Miami and Seattle.
A strong travel market has developed that directly links Toronto
Pearson to countries in North
America, the Caribbean, Central
and South America, Europe, the
Middle East and Asia. These
routes, in turn, provide links to
the remaining world markets.
Toronto Pearson currently accommodates over 30 million Enplaned
and Deplaned (E&D) passengers
per year. Demand is expected to
rise to 36 million by 2010
(including revenue and nonrevenue E&D passengers), to
approximately 50 million by
2020 and to approximately
66 million by 2030. Associated aircraft movement
demand is expected to
increase from 417,000 in
2006 to 637,000 by
2020 and 801,000
by 2030.

FO R E C A STS

This chapter will initially outline

the market profile of Toronto and
associated history, explain the current market activity and factors
that affect that activity before
forecasting the expected future
demand levels of passengers and
aircraft movements. It will explain
the reasons for forecasting and the
impacts the levels of demand will
have on the facility as a whole,
comparing these levels to industry
standards before finishing with
implications.

3.2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

TORONTO PEARSONS TOP ROUTES (2006)

Domestic
Montreal
Vancouver
Ottawa
Calgary
Halifax
Winnipeg
Edmonton
Thunder Bay
London
Windsor

Transborder
Chicago
New York
Los Angeles
Orlando
Miami
Las Vegas
Atlanta
Boston
San Francisco
Dallas

3.1.2 Market Profile

Currently, 79 scheduled and charter airlines serve* Toronto Pearson,
providing non-stop service** to
37 domestic, 83 U.S. (transborder)
destinations and same-plane
service to 100 other international
cities (Summer 2006). Domestic
travel refers to travel within
Canada. Transborder travel refers
to travel between a Canadian airport and a U.S. airport, and international travel refers to travel
between a Canadian airport and
an airport in another part of the
world. (See Table 3-2). With nonstop service to so many destinations, Toronto Pearson is an
attractive international gateway
for Canadian and U.S. connecting
passengers (ranked 23rd in the
world for connecting passengers
in 2006). In fact, the Airport is
the fifth largest entry point into
the United States after New YorkJFK, Chicago, Miami and Los
Angeles international airports.
Toronto Pearson also plays a key
role in the North American air

International
London (All)
Frankfurt
Paris
Amsterdam
Hong Kong
Cancun
Punta Cana
Cuba
Manchester
Rome

route structure and is the central

connecting point for Canadians
travelling across the country. With
Air Canada and WestJet as the
major domestic scheduled carriers,
passengers are connected with
major cities in Canada, the U.S.,
and the rest of the world. Regional
carriers provide access to smaller
cities in North America. The six
major American carriers
(American Airlines, United
Airlines, U.S. Airways, Northwest
Airlines, Continental Airlines and
Delta Airlines) provide additional
service to transborder destinations.
Scheduled and charter passenger
transportation account for the
majority of air services at Toronto
Pearson (88 per cent of aircraft
movements in 2006, See Figure
3-1). Approximately 50 per cent
of cargo freight is transported in
the bellyholds of passenger aircraft, with the remainder being
transported in dedicated cargo aircraft. The remaining activity is
comprised of general aviation
(GA), which includes business

*to serve means to provide a certain level of service, 6 times a week service between two
destinations for both domestic and transborder operations, and 4 times weekly service for
international operations
** non-stop service means providing direct point-to-point service without stopping at any
intermediate location, even to drop off or collect additional passengers

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

FO R E C A STS

aviation (BA), private aircraft and

government and military aircraft.
At Toronto Pearson, business aviation is the predominant segment.
For reasons noted in Chapter 10,
activity in the other segments of
GA has been decreasing and is
now of minor significance
compared to BA activity.
Over the past three decades,
scheduled and charter air carriers
have seen their shares of passenger
traffic fluctuate between approximately 85-91 per cent for
scheduled and 9-15 per cent for
charter. A recent decline in the
charter carriers shares to the 9 per
cent level has occurred due to the
aftermath of September 11, 2001
(9/11) when a number of smaller
charter carriers ceased operations.
The scheduled carriers have
improved their focus on point-topoint travel, and low-cost
F I G U R E 3 -1
Distribution of Aircraft Movements (2006)
39% Passenger
(Domestic)
11% Passenger
(International)
4% Cargo
8% Business Aviation
38% Passenger
(Transborder)

FIGURE 3-2
Charter vs. Scheduled Traffic
Percentage of Total Passengers

TABLE 3-2

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

2000

2001

2002
Charter

2003

2004

2005

Scheduled

2006

3.3
represent the fastest growing
segment of the North American
airline industry, a feat made possible to a large extent by the RJ, and
to some extent by the downturn
in traffic in the aftermath of 9/11,
when many routes were rightsized from mainline carriers to
their regional feeders.

Terminal 3 Departures Level

scheduled carriers have gained market share (See Figure 3-2). Traditionally, charter carriers have
focused on southern vacation destinations and European leisure markets. It is expected that over time,
the charter carriers will continue to
focus on vacation traffic maintaining around 10 per cent of the
Airports passenger market share.
Toronto Pearson has a great impact
on regional traffic as many flights
from other Ontario communities
and adjacent U.S. cities are routed
to or through the Airport. Traditionally, only turboprop aircraft,
such as the Dash-8, served these
markets, but the advent of the
regional jet in 1992 transformed
and expanded this market.
Regional jets (RJ) enable carriers
to economically operate jet aircraft
(the preferred mode of air transportation from the passengers perspective) on these routes and
consist of models such as the
Canadair RJ 100/200 and the
Embraer 135/145. These smaller
fuel-efficient aircraft are also
replacing larger jets on routes with

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

lower passenger volumes, allowing

carriers to fly these routes with
increased frequency without an
increase in total capacity.
With the increase in innovation of
such aircraft, airlines are exploiting
the economies of frequency with
cost-savings to enable these aircraft to fly further distances than
ever before. New aircraft have
come from the Embraer family in
the form of the EMB 175/195
and from Bombardier in the
Canadair RJ 700/900 series. These
innovations have led to the concept of producing the right size
aircraft for each market, which
implies that each route requires
different-sized aircraft. Matching
the correct aircraft in terms of
seats and weight (economies of
scale) is key to airline operating
success in the future.
The last 10 years traffic presented
in Section 3.3 reflects the fastgrowing rate of aircraft movements
in and out of Toronto Pearson
compared to passenger volumes.
Regional airlines currently

FO R E C A STS

Most regional airlines are affiliated

with or contracted by mainline
airlines and use the Airport as a
hub, or with U.S. carriers for
which the commuter provides
supplemental service to Toronto
from U.S. airports.

3.1.3 Network Carriers, Low

Cost and Charters
Three different types of carriers
operate at Toronto Pearson. The
traditional network carriers, such
as Air Canada, British Airways,
American Airlines, are considered
to be scheduled airlines with
every day service to the majority
of destinations with relatively
more frequency. Most network
carriers operate a hub and spoke
network, connecting passengers
through hubs and to/from
regional affiliates. Following 9/11
and the subsequent downturn in
the market, the network carriers
have implemented a number of

3.4

initiatives in an attempt to reduce

cost and compete on a global
scale. These initiatives included
downloading local operations to
regional affiliates, forming
stronger alliances as a catalyst for
additional connecting traffic and
developing more point-to-point
flying in the international sector.
An alternative type of scheduled
carrier is the Low-Cost Carrier
(LCC), for example, WestJet,
Southwest, RyanAir and EasyJet.
These are a newer generation of
airlines who compete with the
network carriers by avoiding the
overhead costs associated with:
operating a variety of aircraft
types
offering extra services such as
connections and interlines
serving regional and international destinations
providing multi-class configurations, lounges, meals and other
amenities.

They tend to operate a more concentrated business with a single or

limited number of aircraft types
and fewer destinations, but compete on price and frequency of
service with the major network
airlines. They focus on point-topoint service with limited
alliances/relationships leading to
less connecting traffic and more
Origin and Destination (O&D)
traffic. The only connecting traffic
carried by an LCC would usually
be through traffic (same plane
service). LCCs encourage their
passengers to self-connect
through appropriately timed
schedules with the passenger
responsible for baggage handling.
As the LCCs are growing into
major players in the industry
through expanded routes and
some consolidation/mergers, such
as Southwest buying Morris Air
and EasyJet buying Go (a former
British Airways subsidiary), they
are pushing network carriers to
compete at a lower cost level. As
LCCs expand, they may very soon
begin to cross paths with other
LCCs. So far, LCCs in North
America have generally been able
to compete only with network
airlines, such as Southwest vs.
U.S. Airways at Philadelphia and
Charlotte, and Southwest vs.

Terminal 1 Departures Level

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

FO R E C A STS

American at Dallas Fort Worth.

Some LCC competition has
existed, such as WestJet vs. JetsGo
and CanJet at Toronto and
RyanAir vs. EasyJet in the UK, but
these are limited.
Currently in Canada, WestJet is
competing against Air Canadas
no-frills Tango service, which was
initially devised by Air Canada
as a separate entity. It later became
a fare option on many of
Air Canadas domestic and transborder routes. WestJet, which
began operating as an LCC, has
adopted some higher service features (leather seats, personal entertainment systems) which elevate it
from a traditional LCC. However, WestJet continues to operate
at an LCC cost structure with LCC
processes, such as single aircraft
type and no interlining yet.
The third airline type is the
Charter carrier. Charter airlines
operate a more seasonal service,
serving the major holiday and visiting friends and relatives traffic
segments, rather than competing
with network carriers for business
travellers. They operate in the
peak seasons and tend to reduce
operations in the quieter periods.
During the winter, most of their
service is to sunspot destinations

3.5
airports for people travelling
within Canada and beyond. In the
1980s, many new routes were
developed linking many smaller
Canadian cities directly. In the
1990s, Open Skies permitted
increased access for these cities to
U.S. destinations.

Air Cargo

in the U.S. and Central America,

while in the summer they offer
service to Canadian long-haul holiday destinations and to Europe.
Air Transat and Skyservice are two
of the longest-serving Charter carriers operating at Toronto Pearson.
In assessing market shares for the
three types of airlines, naturally
the historic trend favours network
carriers. LCCs, however, are starting to gain market share on
growth markets both domestically
and to the U.S. The international
sector, however, does not suit the
low-cost model other than holiday
traffic to sunspot destinations at
off peak times, such as weekends.
The differentiation between network carriers and LCCs has faded
in recent years as network carriers
have attempted to de-bundle services in order to compete with
LCCs. At the same time, LCCs
have stretched their definition to
maintain growth by adding more
services to their offering, such as
in-flight entertainment, leather
seats and some connectivity. As the
gap narrows, it is difficult to depict
a clear future for the long-term airline market share in Toronto.

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

3.1.4 Origin/Destination and

Connecting Passengers
Since Toronto Pearson has a
strong Origin and Destination
(O&D) traffic base, where passengers either begin or end their journey at this airport, the Airport
benefits from a large diversity of
routes. This base of traffic enables
and encourages carriers to flow
passengers through Toronto
Pearson to other destinations.
Several U.S. hubs have a much
weaker O&D base where the
majority of customers use those
airports as hubs to connect on
further. For example, Atlanta and
Chicago have connecting traffic
levels around 50-70 per cent.
Heathrow has a connection rate
of about 25 per cent.
As a hub airport for Star Alliance
and WestJet in North America,
Toronto Pearson is used as a significant connecting point for
passengers on many journeys.
Approximately 20 per cent of
passengers at the Airport are connecting. Historically, Toronto
Pearson and Montreals Trudeau
International Airport were primary

FO R E C A STS

Due to the evolving structure of

air carriers, however, the increase
in operations bypassing Toronto
Pearson has been offset by the
development of hub and spoke
operations at Toronto. This allows
carriers to provide increased frequencies for travellers as well as an
increase in operating efficiencies.
International to U.S. connections
are being established and developed in conjunction with airline
alliance growth. Open Skies
between Canada and the UK, as
well as other countries in years to
come, will facilitate more use of
Toronto as a hub to the U.S. and
beyond, by enabling multiple carriers to operate more frequently to
more destinations.

3.1.5 Air Cargo Profile

In terms of air cargo, Toronto
Pearson serves not only as a gateway for shipments originating in
or destined for the GTA, but also
as a major trans-shipment centre

3.6
freighter service compared with
passenger service.

3.1.6 Business Aviation Profile

Business Aviation Aircraft

for cargo travelling between other

Canadian and international points.
With the continued trend toward
global trade, the importance of the
far-reaching network of routes
from the Airport can only be
expected to better serve Ontarios
shippers and manufacturers.
The importance of Toronto
Pearson as the dominant Canadian
airport for air cargo is expected to
continue, in both regional and
national contexts; however, the
increased use of RJs in right-sizing
markets instead of larger aircraft is
negatively impacting belly cargo
capacity on some North American
routes. Freighters are now filling
this role and are expected to do so
into the future.
Consolidation and reorganization
have been affecting the air cargo
industry since the late 1990s with
the trend accelerating in more
recent times as many of the larger
companies look to strengthen their
market position. This has comprised acquisitions, restructuring
and consolidation of some operations. The effect is that logistics
companies are now concentrating

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

their search for airport sites on

those that can accommodate their
long-term expansion plans, with
some airports benefiting at the
expense of others.
The last several years have been
somewhat volatile with regard to
total cargo handled at Toronto
Pearson. Total cargo activity
worldwide reached its highest ever
level in 1999 and with the economic slowdown and subsequent
impacts of 9/11 and SARS respectively, the total cargo volumes
have declined a total of nearly five
per cent per annum since
that period.
Some clear distinctions of cargo
compared to passenger traffic
include the fact that cargo is predominantly one-direction traffic,
and therefore unbalanced activity
often benefits one company more
than others, for example an
importer of goods compared with
an exporter of goods.
In the more recent decline in air
cargo traffic, freighter demand suffered far less than passenger hold
demand. This indicates that there
has still been strong demand for

FO R E C A STS

Business Aviation (BA) exists at

Toronto Pearson because a number of corporate aircraft are
housed in the Infield and north
Business Aviation Areas. BA has a
broad variety of uses from flying
corporate executives between businesses to intersecting with commercial charter operations. These
types of operations are considered
to aid a business, government, or
military operation, and, in general, not to be available to the
public for hire nor involve cargo
operations. Corporate aircraft are
piloted by individuals who have,
at a minimum, a valid commercial
pilots licence with an
instrument rating.
Traditionally, operators of BA aircraft use aircraft with between five
and 14 seats. Since 1991, BA traffic has fluctuated, reaching a peak
in the mid- to late 1990s. More
recently, BA aircraft movements
have been lower due to the downturn in the industry.
At Toronto Pearson, there is a tendency to use larger BA aircraft
based on demand. Over the last
five years, total BA movements
have grown at an average rate of
two per cent per annum, primarily
due to charter carrier traffic and
some government traffic, although
the latter comprises a small proportion of total BA traffic. See
Chapter 10 on Business Aviation.

3.7
declined again (-4.6 per cent)
and was 15 per cent lower than
in 2000.

Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers, Historical Trend 1965-2006

E/D Passengers (000,000s)

35

2000:
AC/CP Merger

30

2001:
9/11

1992-1994:
Recession

25
20

1995:
Open Skies

15

2003:
SARS and Iraq War

1990-1993:
Gulf War/Recession/GST

10

1983:
Iran/Iraq War

5
0
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985
Total Pax

3 . 2 HI S TO RICAL G RO W T H
Demand for aviation services is
ultimately contingent on the general health of the economy. As
illustrated in Figure 3-3, growth
rates in passenger volumes coincide with growth rates in the
economy (recessions in 1981-84,
1991-93 and 2001-03). However,
the 9/11 terrorist attacks were a
shock to this relationship, as was
the advent of SARS (2003) and
the Iraq and Afghan wars, which
have depressed aviation travel in
recent years. By 2006-07, traffic
levels were back to normal and
returning to the trend line,
except on U.S. routes, due to
the war in Iraq and heightened
and restrictive security measures
in this market.
Along the way, changes to the regulation of the air carrier industry
can also have a significant effect
on demand. These changes may
arise from regulatory reform usually due to domestic and international events. In the early 1980s,
the increased freedom of access to
the air travel market in Canada
(economic regulatory reform) led
to a brief period of increased competition from new entrants. This

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

1990

1995

2000

2005

Trend Line

increased competition and the

wide availability of discount fares
contributed significantly to exceptional passenger traffic growth of
5.3 per cent per annum until
1988. Similar growth occurred in
the mid-1990s when the Open
Skies accord between Canada and
the U.S. was implemented.
After the boom in the late 1990s,
the economy began to slow in
2001 and traffic began to show
signs of weakening. When the
9/11 terrorist attacks occurred, the
Airport experienced a major traffic
shock with a reduction in traffic of
20 per cent in the fourth quarter
of 2001. Traffic declines continued through the first three quarters of 2002 with security issues,
travel fears, and economic woes
crippling the industry. With
Toronto Pearsons close proximity
to the U.S. and its high proportion of U.S. traffic (nearly 25 per
cent of total airport traffic), the
impacts of 9/11 were higher than
most non-U.S. airports.

However, by 2004, the economy

had recovered and most of the aviation shocks had diminished. Air
traffic at Toronto Pearson had
increased by 15 per cent and both
the domestic and international
sectors had recovered to beyond
their 2000 peaks.
In 2005 and 2006, oil price
increases limited capacity growth
in the industry and brought fuel
surcharges to passengers. Traffic
levels, however, continued to
increase and reached 30.97 million passengers in 2006 (compared
to 28.8 million in 2000). However, transborder traffic had not
yet fully recovered to year 2000
levels (-9.5 per cent vs. 2000).
Overall, this limited capacity
growth and continued passenger
traffic increases brought load factors, the measure of passengers to
available seats, to record levels.
Figure 3-4 shows comparative
annual traffic levels from 20002006 for each sector.
FIGURE 3-4
Passengers by Sector 2000-2006
35,000
30,000
Passengers (000s)

FIGURE 3-3

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000

By 2003, another war in Iraq and

the SARS outbreak affected traffic
at Toronto Pearson. By the end of
2003, although the city was
deemed SARS free, traffic had

FO R E C A STS

2000

2001
Domestic

2002

2003

2004

International

2005

2006

Transborder

3.8
3 . 3 AV I AT I O N F O RE CA ST S
3.3.1 Forecasting Process
The forecasts presented in this
Master Plan are based on the
national system forecasts prepared
by Transport Canada in 2006.
This forecast reflects the latest outlook for world economies and the
structure of the airline industry.
The method for producing forecasts has been refined to adequately account for changes in
regional growth rates and airline
market shares for both existing
and potential new carriers at
Toronto Pearson.

3.3.2 Factors Affecting Aviation

Demand
Economic and demographic factors relevant to forecasting aviation activity can be divided into
those affecting the demand side
and those affecting the supply
side. Additionally, several strategic
factors come into play.
As was discussed in Chapter 2,
demand for aviation services is
driven by the general health of the
economy, both domestically and
abroad, and individual purchasing
power. The significant factors are
Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
Personal Disposable Income (PDI),
adult and immigrant population
(especially adult population) and
air fares. The supply of aviation
services provided by the carriers
depends upon competition from
other air carriers and other modes
of travel, fuel cost and efficiency,

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

labour costs, and other industry

specific factors including government regulation, policy issues, airport and air navigation costs,
congestion and environmental initiatives. All of these factors influence the airline fleets (number of
aircraft and size of planes), passenger loads, and route structures.
Fluctuations in currency exchange
rates (including the recent
increases in the Canadian dollar
relative to the U.S. dollar) appear
to have had a negligible effect on
total passenger traffic at Toronto
Pearson. Rather, the proportion of
passenger traffic from the highercurrency country tends to increase
compared to the lower-currency
country as their buying power
increases. Socio-political unrest in
recent years has been a more significant factor than in previous
years as many people have chosen
to avoid the U.S. while it is
occupying Iraq.
Strategic factors are those that
may cause structural shifts from
historical patterns of supply and
demand for aviation services.
These factors include the growth

Terminal 1 Check-In Counters

FO R E C A STS

of teleconferencing and other

forms of electronic communication, the presence of LCCs
and charter air carriers, other
sources of low-fare travel, and
since 9/11, the hassle factor of
travel by air such as security
uncertainty and inconsistency.
The impact of teleconferencing
may be negligible due to its propensity to offset negative factors.
Results suggest that 5-10 per cent
of business travel growth may be
lost in the future. However, the
increase in global trade associated
with electronic communication
may offset some or all of this and
could have a positive impact on
international air travel as it promotes growth in the global economy. Indications on the effect of
the hassle factor are already
reflected in the loss of five per
cent in shorthaul markets where
the uncertainty of processing
times is a relatively significant factor. However, as these systems
mature and technological advances
streamline the process, it is
expected that this impact
will reduce.

3.9
FIGURE 3-5
Accuracy of Transport Canada Forecasts
E/D Revenue Passengers

35
30
25
20
15
10
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1087 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Actual

In 1986

3.3.3 Passenger Forecasting

Process
The process of forecasting passengers starts with the Transport
Canada Forecasting Groups
system-wide forecast of passenger
demand and aircraft movements.
An econometric passenger origin/
destination model (PODM) and a
passenger traffic allocation model
(PTAM) are used to prepare a
forecast for the top 77 airports
in Canada. Inputs to these
models include those listed in
Section 3.3.2.
Economic forecasts based on the
outlooks of several external agencies, such as the Conference Board
of Canada and Informetrica, are
used in conjunction with historical
traffic data in these models to forecast the demand for travel. The
base model (PODM) projects the
number of origin and destination
(O&D) passengers for each area of
the country for the domestic,
transborder and other international markets. Enplaned/
deplaned passenger volumes are
forecast by incorporating connecting passenger traffic derived from
the passenger allocation model to
yield an integrated forecast for

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

In 1992

each of the major airports in the

country, as well as an aircraft
movement forecast.
The forecasts are then reviewed
and finalized by the GTAA. The
following adjustments are made to
the forecasts:
To account for non-revenue passengers (airline employees or
others travelling at deeply discounted fares)
To adjust to facility-based sector
definitions to provide the microlevel detail required for facility
planning purposes.
The forecasting process is undertaken annually by Transport Canada and is tracked by the GTAA
on a monthly basis. Figure 3-5
demonstrates the accuracy of the
forecasts done using this method
for two previous iterations.
Redeveloped facilities at Toronto
Pearson should appeal to passengers arriving from European and
other international cities and
bound for U.S. cities for which
little or no direct routes exist to
meet demand. To facilitate this
role, in-transit pre-clearance facilities, which preclude the need for
international to transborder connecting passengers to pass through

FO R E C A STS

Canadian Customs, are already

available in Terminal 1 and will be
available in Terminal 3 as demand
warrants. As a result, connecting
passenger volumes between international and transborder sectors
are expected to increase in the
Transport Canada numbers. The
forecasts used reflect additional
connections between sectors, both
at the aggregate level and on a
daily profile basis where connecting volumes are incorporated into
future facility requirements.

3.3.4 Passenger Demand

In 2006, the enplaned and deplaned (E&D) traffic reached
30.97 million passengers at
Toronto Pearson with approximately 80 per cent representing
O&D traffic and the remainder
accounted for by connecting
traffic.
O&D traffic represents passengers
originating or terminating their
trips at Toronto Pearson whereas
connecting passengers use Toronto
Pearson as a connecting point to
travel between two other points.
Regional is defined as the passengers whose origin/destination is in
the Greater Toronto catchment
area, which is described in
Chapter 2 of this Master Plan as
the Airports Total Service Area.
Regional O&D passenger volumes
are projected to grow from about
23 million in 2006 to almost
50 million by 2030. Regional
O&D passenger forecasts are presented in Table 3-3 and Figure 3-6.

3.10
previously discussed, it should be
noted that this is a demand forecast for the Toronto region and
does not take into account any
capacity limitations.

FIGURE 3-6
Origin and Destination Passengers

Passengers (000,000s)

60

Actual

Forecast

50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Domestic

Transborder

International

F I G U R E 3 -7
Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers

Passengers (000,000s)

70

Actual

60

Forecast

50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Domestic

TABLE 3-3
Actual

Forecast

Transborder

International

ORIGIN AND DESTINAT ION PA SSENGERS

Year
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Domestic
6,610,000
5,853,000
6,240,000
6,699,000
6,732,000
6,859,000
6,727,000
6,719,000
6,585,000
6,437,000
7,541,000
7,783,000
7,978,000
8,982,000
10,315,000
11,582,000
12,856,000
14,105,000

Total regional E&D passenger

traffic over the longer term is
expected to grow from about
31 million passengers in 2006 to

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

Transborder
5,610,000
5,594,000
6,236,000
6,355,000
6,669,000
6,910,000
7,257,000
6,649,000
6,104,000
5,475,000
6,320,000
6,643,000
6,711,000
7,777,000
9,450,000
11,211,000
13,078,000
14,963,000

International
4,318,000
5,236,000
5,129,000
5,685,000
5,973,000
6,272,000
6,846,000
6,796,000
6,314,000
6,214,000
7,366,000
7,998,000
8,358,000
10,159,000
12,457,000
15,017,000
17,773,000
20,594,000

Total
16,538,000
16,764,000
17,605,000
18,739,000
19,374,000
20,041,000
20,830,000
20,164,000
19,003,000
18,126,000
21,227,000
22,424,000
23,047,000
26,918,000
32,222,000
37,810,000
43,707,000
49,662,000

about 66 million by 2030, for an

average annual growth rate of
approximately three per cent. In
addition to the assumptions

FO R E C A STS

Forecasts of E&D passengers

are detailed in Table 3-4 and
Figure 3-7.
Currently, traffic at the Airport
consists of 43 per cent domestic,
29 per cent transborder, and
28 per cent international passengers. Over the long term, these
figures are expected to become
more balanced with international,
followed by transborder volumes,
growing at a faster rate than
domestic volumes. The shift in
traffic is due to maturation of the
domestic market, the impact of
Open Skies and international connections on transborder activity,
and the increase in global trade
and the international travel activity it generates. Open Skies have
enabled Toronto Pearson to
become a North American gateway as well as a primary airport
for Eastern/Central Canada for
both transborder and international
activity. With further international
Open Skies agreements anticipated, the expectation for even
higher international activity at
Toronto Pearson will be realized.
Throughout the forecast horizon,
Toronto Pearson is expected to
continue to grow as a gateway
between Europe and North
America, and to a lesser extent
between Asia and North America
with longer-range aircraft and
expanded U.S. opportunities with

3.11

TABLE 3-4
Actual

Forecast

TABLE 3-5

ENPL ANED AND DEPL ANED PA SSENGERS

Year
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Domestic
10,390,000
10,057,000
10,772,000
11,629,000
11,939,000
12,376,000
12,318,000
12,304,000
11,272,000
11,022,000
12,637,000
12,906,000
13,466,000
15,121,000
17,139,000
19,184,000
21,233,000
23,233,000

Transborder
6,748,000
6,929,000
7,903,000
8,431,000
8,650,000
9,080,000
9,813,000
8,989,000
8,153,000
7,316,000
8,422,000
8,803,000
8,923,000
10,375,000
12,703,000
15,206,000
17,883,000
20,609,000

International
4,915,000
5,460,000
5,584,000
6,035,000
6,143,000
6,329,000
6,799,000
6,750,000
6,505,000
6,401,000
7,557,000
8,205,000
8,583,000
10,520,000
13,049,000
15,896,000
18,992,000
22,188,000

Total
22,053,000
22,446,000
24,259,000
26,095,000
26,732,000
27,785,000
28,930,000
28,043,000
25,930,000
24,739,000
28,616,000
29,914,000
30,972,000
36,016,000
42,891,000
50,286,000
58,108,000
66,030,000

ALLIANCE AIRLINES

Star
Air Canada
Air New Zealand
All Nippon
Asiana
Austrian
British Midland
LOT Polish
Lufthansa
SAS Scandinavian
Singapore
South African
Spanair
Swiss Air
TAP Portugal
Thai
United
U.S. Airways

One World
American
British Airways
Finnair
Cathay Pacic
Iberia
Qantas
LAN Chile
Malev Hungarian
Royal Jordanian
Japan

RJ additions to the Air Canada

and Star Alliance fleets. The
opportunity for this growth
requires unconstrained runway
and terminal facilities, and further

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

Skyteam
Aeroot
Aeromexico
Air France
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Alitalia
Continental
Czech
Delta
Korean
Northwest

development/integration of airline
alliances. The members of the
three main global airline alliances
are listed in Table 3-5. Currently,
only the Star Alliance has a
Canadian airline member.

FO R E C A STS

Alliances with a Canadian carrier

are more likely to route operations
through Toronto Pearson for connections between North American
and international destinations as
well as the usual domestic connections. The percentage of international passengers who arrive at the
Airport to board connecting
flights is expected to increase from
approximately 12 per cent in 2006
to approximately 21 per cent by
the end of the forecast horizon
mainly due to Open Skies and
stronger airline alliances.

3.3.5 Aircraft Movement

Forecasting Process
The forecast of aircraft movements
is derived from the passenger
demand forecast, and from an
econometric model for the nonpassenger operations (Business
Aviation and Cargo). Using current airline statistics and accepted
forecasts of load factors and aircraft sizes from the PTAM model
(see Section 3.3.3), passenger air
carrier movements are projected
for the airport system as a whole.
By adding the results of the nonpassenger operations model, the
total itinerant movement forecasts
are generated for the system and
for individual airports. The GTAA
reviews and modifies the forecasts
to account for sector definition
differences and local load factors,
which results in a set of forecasts
for use in facility and financial
planning analyses.

3.12

TABLE 3-6

ITINERANT AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

Air Carrier Passenger Aircraft

Actual

Forecast

Year
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Domestic
172,000
156,000
170,000
168,000
177,000
195,000
168,000
148,000
135,000
136,000
151,000
152,000
163,000
181,000
204,000
229,000
253,000
278,000

For facility planning analysis, the

annual forecasts are converted to
future planning day schedules.
These schedules enable the planners to assess the facilities required
to accommodate the busy traffic
periods in the future. The forecasts
are used in airside, apron and terminal gating simulations to determine future needs and timing. All
of this is described in more detail
in both the Airside System and
Passenger Terminals chapters,
Chapters 5 and 6 respectively.

Transborder
97,000
113,000
132,000
147,000
162,000
170,000
181,000
178,000
167,000
155,000
161,000
160,000
159,000
186,000
220,000
257,000
297,000
331,000

International
27,000
25,000
25,000
27,000
28,000
30,000
37,000
38,000
35,000
36,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
54,000
66,000
78,000
91,000
103,000

Cargo,
Business Aviation,
Ferry, Technical
56,000
49,000
45,000
53,000
54,000
30,000
41,000
42,000
46,000
44,000
49,000
53,000
51,000
60,000
65,000
73,000
81,000
89,000

Total
296,000
294,000
327,000
342,000
367,000
395,000
386,000
364,000
337,000
327,000
355,000
356,000
367,000
421,000
490,000
564,000
641,000
712,000

and Figure 3-8). Overall movements, including Business

Aviation and Cargo, are also
expected to grow by almost two
per cent annually for the same
period. While the international
sector is expected to be the higher
growth market, domestic and
transborder markets are more susceptible to changes in aircraft mix
by the carriers operating at
Toronto Pearson. Both of these
markets are fairly mature in terms

Total
Itinerant
352,000
343,000
372,000
395,000
421,000
425,000
427,000
406,000
383,000
371,000
404,000
409,000
417,000
481,000
555,000
637,000
722,000
801,000

of passenger demand, however the

type of aircraft being used to
transport the passengers continues
to cycle from mainline larger aircraft to smaller regional aircraft
during downturns, and now to
new larger RJs in the 75-100 seat
range. As the Airport approaches
capacity and becomes more congested in the long term and as
new more efficient, narrow-body
aircraft are developed, the cycle
will continue to progress.

FIGURE 3-8
Itinerant Aircraft Movements

3.3.6 Aircraft Operations

900

Actual

Forecast

Toronto Pearsons passenger air

carrier movement demand is
expected to grow from 367,000 in
2006 to approximately 564,000 in
2020, and continue to grow to
712,000 by 2030 (see Table 3-6

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

Movements (000s)

750
600
450
300
150
0
1990

FO R E C A STS

1998

2002

2006
Domestic

2010
Transborder

2014
International

2018

2022

Business Aviation

2026

2030

3.13
routes such as Toronto-Narita,
Toronto-Beijing and TorontoDelhi. Should these aircraft
increase in popularity, Toronto
Pearson is already equipped with
the necessary facilities to accommodate them through the forecast
horizon.

Passenger Terminal Demand

In the international sector, the

development of more economical
and long-range aircraft have facilitated the ability for airlines to
ensure they have the correct aircraft in their fleet to serve specific
routes by right-sizing. This has
led to many airlines down-gauging
aircraft and the development of
more robust aircraft, such as
Boeings new 787 family of aircraft and the Airbus A350 XWB.
These aircraft will be able travel
farther due to wider wingspan
which, in turn, will make them
more cost-efficient. This is similar
to the continuing RJ revolution.
Aircraft manufacturers are also
looking to replace long-range and
high-capacity aircraft with developments such as the new Airbus
A380 and the prospective Boeing
B747-8 Intercontinental, and their
cargo derivatives. These aircraft are
being considered by airlines to
provide premium service on the
super long-range routes like
Sydney-London and SydneyToronto non-stop and on highcapacity markets to/from Asia primarily to Europe and the U.S.
Opportunities for these aircraft at
Toronto Pearson are in the highdensity Toronto-London and
Toronto-Frankfurt markets as well
as in high-growth Toronto-Asia

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

3.3.7 Air Cargo Demand

Toronto Pearson is the largest
cargo airport in Canada. Moving
a total of 517,000 metric tonnes
of air cargo in 2006, Toronto
Pearson is significantly ahead of
its competitors, and currently
ranks 38th in the world for air
cargo volumes.
The shipment of parcels, packages
and larger items by air has historically been a secondary business for
air carriers, but has grown in
importance with globalization.
TABLE 3-7
Actual

Forecast

FO R E C A STS

Approximately one half of cargo

shipped at Toronto Pearson is in
the bellyholds of passenger aircraft. Pure cargo air carriers, however, are capturing marketshare,
including FedEx, UPS, DHL,
Martinair and Volga-Dnepr.
The GTAA obtains the cargo forecast from Transport Canada who
use regression analysis to forecast
air cargo volumes. Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) is used as the key
explanatory variable in the forecast. Historically, a one per cent
change in GDP has resulted in
approximately a one per cent
change in total air cargo volumes.
The resulting cargo forecast, displayed in Table 3-7, reveals overall
average growth of three per cent
per annum to 2030.
It should be noted that the data in
years prior to 2005 were Transport

ENPL ANED AND DEPL ANED CARGO (000 kg)

Year
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Domestic
152,000
122,000
116,000
127,000
111,000
109,000
101,000
82,000
80,000
64,000
55,000
114,000
109,000
130,000
150,000
171,000
193,000
219,000

Transborder
67,000
76,000
91,000
99,000
83,000
94,000
93,000
83,000
73,000
76,000
86,000
199,000
209,000
254,000
311,000
376,000
451,000
541,000

International
108,000
122,000
129,000
142,000
174,000
176,000
173,000
153,000
156,000
148,000
156,000
162,000
199,000
216,000
273,000
341,000
419,000
514,000

Total
327,000
320,000
336,000
368,000
368,000
379,000
367,000
318,000
309,000
288,000
297,000
475,000
517,000
600,000
734,000
888,000
1,063,000
1,274,000

3.14

Airside Demand

Canada estimates that included

cargo carried only on scheduled
and charter airlines. Since 2005,
the GTAA has developed methods
to capture regional/local cargo volumes for both air freight and
truck freight, which were previously unaccounted for, and these
extra volumes have significantly
bolstered the reported cargo figures. It is anticipated that the proportion of long-haul cargo will
increase due to factors such as rising fuel costs, leading firms to
truck large volumes of short-haul
cargo. Considering the trend
toward increased global trade, the
air cargo growth rate could exceed
the GDP growth rate; though this
trend was noted, it was not incorporated into the cargo forecast.
In the domestic and transborder
sectors, there is a potential for carriers to transfer the transportation
of cargo from bellyholds to small
freighter aircraft due to the
increased use of RJs on many
routes, which do not have the
capacity to transit this cargo.
Toronto Pearsons cargo market is
much stronger than data would
indicate. The region is comprised
of some of the worlds leading aireligible, producing companies that
require expedited transportation

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

to meet their regular shipping

requirements. Since the service
from Toronto Pearson to a number of transborder gateways is
frequent, it has more recently
attracted international freighter
operations and is expected to continue to do so in the future. This
can only be seen as a positive step
in the increasingly fluid market.
Since cargo can be trucked hundreds, sometimes thousands, of
miles to reach its gateway or destination, the location of Toronto
Pearson is proving to be a key
consideration when carriers decide
where to fly, and the excellent
operating efficiencies and cargo
facilities at Toronto Pearson are
capable of responding to nearand mid-term cargo market
opportunities.
A profile of a future planning day
for cargo movement numbers is
important in understanding the
potential for the Airport to expand.
Sample days from historical data
are taken and specific growth rates
are applied out over the horizon of
this Master Plan. More detail can
be found in the Airside System
and Air Cargo chapters, Chapters
5 and 8 respectively.

3.3.8 Business/General Aviation

Forecasts
Business aviation activity is
expected to continue to maintain
its presence at Toronto Pearson
with higher growth in corporate
operations offsetting declines in
government and private operators.
Transport Canadas forecast

FO R E C A STS

growth is fuelled by GDP and

Personal Disposable Income rates
of growth.
Business Aviation traffic is
expected to grow by one or two
per cent per year throughout the
forecast horizon.
While the use of very small aircraft
(Very Light Jets, or VLJs) as air
taxis by the corporate community
is not being considered at Toronto
Pearson, as the Airport is expected
to remain focused on air carrier
activity, some VLJs may operate in
the Toronto area to provide direct
non-stop service to smaller markets. VLJs and other small aircraft
operating at Toronto Pearson
would limit airside capacity due to
aircraft separation rules requiring
these aircraft to maintain increased
horizontal separation when arriving or departing after a larger aircraft. The GTAA would, therefore,
not encourage such activity.

3.4 F O RECA STS F O R

FACILIT Y PL ANNING
Producing forecasts to understand
both the level of activity through
the Airport and the future strain
on facilities enables the GTAA to
assess when additional facilities
need to become available. Since it
takes time to plan, design, fund
and build these facilities, it is
important to develop detailed
daily forecast flight schedules that
can be used in facility planning
simulation models well in advance
of the facility requirement.

3.15
In order to ensure that the forecasts are as useful as possible, it is
necessary to assess traffic levels on
each day of the week and independently for each sector.
Generally, most domestic and
transborder traffic will be far more
consistent in terms of frequency
throughout the week than international, where increases are seen on
weekends as people choose to
travel for holiday purposes more
widely during that time.

This section of the Plan provides

an overview of the development of
these forecasts. The requirements
resulting from the analyses of these
schedules can be seen in more
detail in the Airside System and
Passenger Terminals chapters,
Chapters 5 and 6.

3.4.1 Development of Schedules

of Activity
When future schedules of traffic
are produced, a number of input
factors are considered that break
the aggregate passenger forecast
down to the necessary level of
detail.
Beginning with the sector forecasts, the traffic is subdivided into
five domestic, seven transborder

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

and seven international zones, to

identify both the varying growth
rates and to account for the appropriate timing of flights at Toronto
Pearson. The zones are shown in
Figures 3-9, 3-10 and 3-11.
These factors are considered on a
regional basis by sector: the number of passengers per flight on historic routes, the mix of aircraft,
the market share for each airline,
the load factor and number of
seats per flight. The schedules of
activity are developed for a representative summer and winter week
and are disaggregated by flight
over the course of each day. Using
the annual forecasts provided by
Transport Canada, the same independent factors are derived for
forecast years.

FO R E C A STS

Therefore, historical traffic is analyzed and forecasted on a daily

basis for each sector with the
number of arriving and departing
passengers broken into short 15minute segments throughout the
day. Based on this history, future
activity schedules are developed
that incorporate traffic growth
patterns and regional differences,
as well as airline fleet plan
assumptions.
Following this analysis, schedules
were generated for passengers,
movements and seats for each
year and season throughout the
forecast horizon.
These schedules are then used in
simulations to determine future
facility congestion levels and thus
future facility requirements.

3.4.2 Industry Planning

Standards
Daily and hourly passenger and
movement volumes drive the main
requirements for facility planning.
Therefore, the forecasting of these
parameters is paramount in the

3.16

development of passenger and

aircraft-related facilities at the
Airport. A number of standards
relating to levels of activity exist
throughout the industry and these
are often used as a form of benchmark for planning. Planning day
standards are used to estimate traffic levels through a period of time,
perhaps a week or an hour, with
an understanding that the Airport
can operate at that level of activity.

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

Moreover, peak standards are set

to reflect the variability of activity
levels across a planning day and
help to determine when passenger
and aircraft peaks will occur. It
also sets a level of expectation that
the Airport can accommodate
such levels of activity with acceptable delays during absolute peaks
(100th percentile periods). There
are five main peak standards that
are used as benchmarks around
the world at airports:

FO R E C A STS

The absolute peak

The average day of the busiest
month
The average of the seven busiest
days of the three busiest months
The 90th percentile of daily
traffic
The 95th percentile of days.
These metrics are used by different organizations when planning
for future levels of activity.
Transport Canada, for example,
adopts the 90th percentile of daily

3.17

traffic for aircraft activity whereas

the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) adopts the
average of the seven busiest days
of the three busiest months.
These standards have been
expanded to peak hour planning.
In this case, instead of days, hours
are used for comparison, over a
given period of time.
When calculating planning days, it
is important to understand which
industry standards are being met,
which are realistic as a benchmark,

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

and which should be viewed as a

future target for the Airport.

3.4.3 Seasonal Variations

and Peaks

An independent study was undertaken by Moncrieff Management

Ltd. to validate the suggested standards for Toronto Pearson. The
assessment of Toronto Pearsons
traffic by sector and season for passenger planning standards, aircraft
planning standards and peak hour
traffic analysis concluded that
GTAA methods for developing a
summer and winter week forecast
for each year represented a reasonable planning standard not the
absolute peak, but sufficiently high
levels of activity.

In addition to forecasting the

annual traffic levels, the planning
of facilities requires that seasonal
and daily variations in traffic levels
are considered. The summer
months of July and August have
traditionally been the busiest
months at Toronto Pearson, as
passenger traffic is buoyed by
vacationers to and within Canada
and to Europe. During the winter,
the peak months of February and
March are affected by vacationers
travelling to sunspot destinations

FO R E C A STS

3.18
(see Figure 3-12). Since 9/11,
some of the U.S.-bound holiday
traffic has shifted to other southern
destinations. The degree to which
that traffic returns to the U.S.
depends on U.S.-World relations
and relative costs of holidays.

Holiday Season Demand

F I G U R E 3 -12
Traffic by Month, 2006
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Domestic

Jul

Aug

Transborder

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

International

F I G U R E 3 -13
Daily Variations, Summer 2006

Passenger volumes also vary by

day of the week. While business
travellers typically travel on weekdays, leisure travel itineraries usually include weekends. As shown
in Figures 3-13 and 3-14, the traffic peaks on Fridays when both
groups overlap. During the summer, the vacationing passengers
boost traffic levels throughout the
week. In the winter months, vacationing travellers increase weekend
distribution, with international
and transborder sunspot travel
raising the Saturday and Sunday
traffic levels to the equivalent of
the Friday level, but with significantly different sector splits.
The analysis of these traffic
patterns is important, as airport
facilities must be designed to
handle busy traffic periods.

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

3.4.4 Passenger Planning Levels

0
Mon

Tue

Wed
Domestic

Thu
Transborder

Fri

Sat

Sun

All Sectors

International

F I G U R E 3 -14
Daily Variations, Winter 2006
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Mon

Tue

Wed
Domestic

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

Thu
Transborder

AND

Fri
International

FO R E C A STS

Sat
All Sectors

Sun

The standards mentioned above

allow the Airport to set goals and
target levels of activity across a
season, by sector and direction.
Linking directly with the planning
day schedules produced, total passengers and movements are calculated for each day of the week.
Tables 3-8 and 3-9 summarize the
peak day levels of activity for passengers for summer and winter

3.19
respectively for 2005, 2015, 2020,
2025 and 2030.
Also shown in Table 3-10 are the
peak hour traffic levels for selected
sector and season combinations.

3.4.5 Aircraft Movement

Planning Levels
Peak day and hour traffic analysis
is performed in much the same
way for aircraft movements. The
totals for the planning day and
peak hour activity are presented in
Tables 3-11 and 3-12 for summer
and winter respectively for 2005,
2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.

TABLE 3-8

2005
2015
2020
2025
2030

Transborder
A
D
14,000
14,000
22,000
22,000
26,500
26,500
30,500
30,500
34,000
34,500

International
A
D
16,000
17,000
26,000
25,500
31,500
32,000
36,500
37,500
43,500
45,000

WINTER PEAK DAY PA SSENGER TRAFFIC

Domestic
A
D
16,500
16,500
21,000
20,500
23,500
23,000
26,000
25,500
28,500
27,500

Transborder
A
D
13,500
13,500
21,500
21,000
26,000
25,500
29,500
29,000
33,500
32,500

International
A
D
13,000
13,500
21,000
20,000
24,000
24,500
29,000
29,000
33,500
33,000

TABLE 3-10 PEAK HOUR PA SSENGER TRAFFIC LEVELS

Also shown in Table 3-13 are

selected peak hour traffic levels.

Season
Summer

For a complete picture, in Table

3-14 is the Business Aviation peak
hour traffic levels.
Winter

3 . 5 F O R E CA ST
I M P L I CAT IO NS

Sector
Domestic

Direction
A
D
International A
D
Transborder
A
D

2005
2,300
2,000
2,600
2,600
1,900
1,600

2015
2,300
2,900
3,700
3,600
2,500
2,300

2020
2,800
3,100
3,800
3,900
2,800
2,700

2025
3,600
3,400
5,200
4,100
3,300
3,200

2030
3,700
3,700
5,900
5,100
3,600
3,400

TABLE 3-11 SUMMER PEAK DAY AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

With over 50 million E&D passengers and 637,000 aircraft

movements projected by the year
2020, evaluation of Toronto
Pearsons airside, terminal and
supporting infrastructure will be
required to assess whether the
Airport has sufficient capacity to
meet the future aviation demands
of the region at reasonable levels
of service. Once Toronto Pearson
reaches capacity, other regional
airports must have capacity in
place to handle any spillover from
Toronto Pearson; otherwise significant delays will occur and the

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

Domestic
A
D
21,500
22,000
27,000
27,500
30,500
31,000
33,500
34,500
37,000
37,500

TABLE 3-9

2005
2015
2020
2025
2030

SUMMER PEAK DAY PA SSENGER TRAFFIC

AND

2005
2015
2020
2025
2030

Domestic
A
D
240
240
310
315
345
350
385
390
415
415

Transborder
A
D
255
260
365
365
420
430
475
485
530
530

International
A
D
85
90
145
145
175
175
205
210
245
250

TABLE 3-12 WINTER PEAK DAY AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

2005
2015
2020
2025
2030

FO R E C A STS

Domestic
A
D
205
200
255
250
250
240
315
310
340
330

Transborder
A
D
255
255
340
340
390
390
445
445
475
480

International
A
D
80
85
110
110
130
130
155
160
195
190

3.20

TABLE 3-13 PEAK HOUR AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT TRAFFIC LEVELS

Season
Summer

Winter

Sector
Domestic

Direction
A
D
International A
D
Transborder
A
D

2005
23
21
13
14
34
29

2015
29
33
21
19
37
32

2020
33
35
24
20
44
39

2025
40
38
29
22
51
45

2030
43
50
32
25
55
45

TABLE 3-14 PEAK HOUR BUSINESS AVIATION TRAFFIC LEVELS

Season
Summer

Sector
Domestic

Direction
A
D
A
D
A
D

International
Winter

Transborder

airport system will not be able to

effectively support the GTA.

3.5.1 Utilization of Facilities

Once schedules are produced, it is
necessary to assess the efficiencies
of the airport operation. Such efficiencies could occur from a number of different sources:

Chapter 3 > A V I AT I O N A C T I V I T Y

AND

Volume
76
103
20
12
87
89

The time taken for a passenger

to navigate check-in
Pre-Board Screening (PBS)
U.S. Customs and Border
Protection
Canadian Border Services
Other facilities to reach the gate
Length of time an aircraft spends
on a gate
Size of gate or whether there are
adjacency rules.

FO R E C A STS

Some of these facilities are discussed in Chapter 6 Passenger

Terminals.
As Toronto Pearson looks to
become the most efficient facility
and a gateway of choice to the
North American market and
beyond, such evaluation is pertinent to attracting airlines to
use Toronto Pearson in their
long-term objectives.
Reference: Transport Canada,
General Forecast Update, 2006/07.
Transport Canada makes no warranties, guarantees or representations, expressed or implied.