Professional Documents
Culture Documents
April 08,2016
Vol 7 Issue III
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SCIENCE CITY OF MUNOZ, Nueva Ecija The Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhiRice)
has recommended the use of drought-tolerant varieties and technologies to help farmers cope
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Maarten Elferink
Florian Schierhorn
APRIL 07, 2016
Over the last century, the global population has quadrupled. In 1915, there were 1.8 billion
people in the world. Today, according to the most recent estimate by the UN, there are 7.3 billion
people and we may reach 9.7 billion by 2050. This growth, along
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with rising incomes in developing countries (which cause dietary changes such as eating more
protein and meat) are driving up global food demand.Food demand is expected to increase
anywhere between 59% to 98% by 2050. This will shape agricultural markets in ways we have
not seen before. Farmers worldwide will need to increase crop production, either by increasing
the amount of agricultural land to grow crops or by enhancing productivity on existing
agricultural lands through fertilizer and irrigation and adopting new methods like precision
farming.
However, the ecological and social trade-offs of clearing more land for agriculture are often
high, particularly in the tropics. And right now, crop yields the amount of crops harvested per
unit of land cultivated are growing too slowly to meet the forecasted demand for food.Many
other factors, from climate change to urbanization to a lack of investment, will also make it
challenging to produce enough food. There is strong academic consensus that climate change
driven water scarcity, rising global temperatures, and extreme weather will have severe longterm effects on crop yields. These are expected to impact many major agricultural regions,
especially those close to the Equator.
For example, the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, one of the most important agricultural regions
worldwide, may face an18% to 23% reduction in soy and corn output by 2050, due to climate
change. The Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Australia two other globally important regions
may also see a substantial decline in agricultural output due to extreme heat.Yet some places are
expected to (initially) benefit from climate change. Countries stretching over northern latitudes
mainly China, Canada, and Russia are forecasted to experience longer and warmer
growing seasons in certain areas. Russia, which is already a major grain exporter, has huge
untapped production potential because of large crop yield gaps (the difference between current
and potential yields under current conditions) and widespread abandoned farmland (more than 40
million hectares, an area larger than Germany) following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in
1991. The country arguably has the most agricultural opportunity in the world, but institutional
reform and significant investments in agriculture and rural infrastructure will be needed to
realize it.Advanced logistics, transportation, storage, and processing are also crucial for making
sure that food goes from where it grows in abundance to where it doesnt.
This is where soft commodity trading companies, such as Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, or COFCO,
come in. While Big Food companies such as General Mills or Unilever have tremendous global
influence on what people eat, trading companies have a much greater impact on food security,
because they source and distribute our staple foods and the ingredients used by Big Food, from
rice, wheat, corn, and sugar to soybean and oil palm. They also store periodically produced
grains and oilseeds so that they can be consumed all year, and they process soft commodities so
that they can be used further down the value chain. For example, wheat needs to be milled into
flour to produce bread or noodles, and soybeans must be crushed to produce oil or feed for
livestock.
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Farmers must also grow more on the land they currently operate through what is called
sustainable intensification. This means using precision farming tools, such as GPS fertilizer
dispersion, advanced irrigation systems, and environmentally optimized crop rotations. These
methods can help produce more crops, especially in parts of Africa, Latin America, and Eastern
Europe with large yield gaps. They can also reduce the negative environmental impacts from
over-stressing resourcespreventing groundwater depletionand the destruction of fertile
lands through over-use of fertilizer.The agricultural sector also needs significant long-term
private investment and public spending. Many large institutional investors, including pension
funds and sovereign wealth funds, have already made major commitments to support global
agricultural production and trading in recent yearsnot least because agricultural (land)
investments have historically delivered strong returns, increased diversification, and outpaced
inflation.
Still, investment in agriculture in most developing countries has declined over the last 30
years and much less is spent on R&D compared to developed countriesresulting in low
productivity and stagnant production. And because banking sectors in developing countries give
fewer loans to farmers (compared to the share of agriculture in GDP), investments by both
farmers and large corporations are still limited. To attract more financing and investment in
agriculture, the risks need to be reduced by governments. Regulators need to overhaul policies
that limit inclusion of small, rural farmers into the financial system for example, soft loans
(i.e., lending that is more generous than market lending) and interest rate caps discourage bank
lending. More supportive policies, laws, and public spending on infrastructure would help create
a favorable investment climate for agriculture.
Global policy makers, corporations, and consumers must put the global food balance higher up
the agenda. International business leaders who are participating in this supply chain have to
better communicate the need for policy changes and for developed countries to incentivize
investment in regions where there is the most potential for growth. Our food security will depend
on it.
Maarten Elferink is the founder and Managing Director of Vosbor, an Amsterdam based
commodity service and solutions provider dedicated to sustainability, originating soft
commodities and derivative products selectively in Eastern Europe and the FSU for distribution
in the Asia-Pacific region.
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WASHINGTON, DC -- Earlier today, more than 60 state and national agriculture organizations
and agribusinesses sent a letter to Capitol Hill requesting funding for U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) positions that would be based in Cuba for FY 2017.The letter, initiated by
USA Rice, outlines the need to provide USDA "boots on the ground" in Cuba to give U.S.
agribusinesses the opportunity to obtain commodity market supply and demand figures, support
the marketing efforts of U.S. exporters, assist in resolving phytosanitary barriers, and safeguard
U.S. agriculture from the threat of new pests and diseases.
With increases in tourism from the U.S. to Cuba, demand for food is expected to rise and it's
important that U.S. commodities are offered the opportunity to fill that demand. Cuba imports
up to 80 percent of its food but typically gives the business to the European Union, Asia, or
South America.
Dow Brantley, Arkansas rice farmer and chairman of USA Rice said, "Cuba imports about
600,000 metric tons of rice per year. That business mostly goes to Viet Nam and Brazil and
none of it comes from the United States. High quality U.S. rice could be shipped from ports
about 700 miles from Cuba rather than inferior rice coming from as far as 13,000 miles
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10 | w w w . r i c e p l u s s . c o m , w w w . r i c e p l u s m a g a z i n e . b l o s g s p o t . c o m
11 | w w w . r i c e p l u s s . c o m , w w w . r i c e p l u s m a g a z i n e . b l o s g s p o t . c o m
our future business development, results of operations, financial condition and financial
statements;
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projected revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, profits, adjusted profits, earnings, adjusted
earnings and other estimated financial information;
our ability to maintain strong relationships with our customers and suppliers;
the continued application of the proceeds from our initial public offering (IPO);
You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and you should read these statements
in conjunction with the risk factors disclosed in Risk Factors appearing in Amiras Annual Reports
found on the SECs website located at www.sec.gov. Those risks are not exhaustive. We operate in a
rapidly evolving environment. New risk factors emerge from time to time, and it is impossible for our
management to predict all risk factors, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the
extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ from those
contained in any forward-looking statement. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise the
forward-looking statements except as required under applicable law.
Riceland Foods
Cash Bids Stuttgart: - - - Pendleton: - - New Crop Stuttgart: - - - Pendleton: - - -
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Last Change
Wheat
High Low
Cash Bids 452 427
New Crop 480 455
Futures:
High Low
Last Change
Grain Sorghum
High Low
Cash Bids 352 352
New Crop 340 299
Corn
High Low
Cash Bids 379 347
New Crop 378 352
Futures:
High Low
Last Change
Cotton
Futures:
High Low Last Change
May '16 60.58 59.05 60.07 +1.04
Jul '16 59.56 58.51 59.56 +0.99
Dec '16 59.14 58.20 58.84 +0.63
Memphis, TN Cotton and Tobacco Programs
Cotton Comment
Cotton futures were continuing higher at mid-day on stronger than expected weekly export sales. 224,100
running bales were sold for shipment in 15-16, bringing total commitments to 7.818 million running
bales. The next upside target for May is the 50% retracement level of 60.19 cents. Last week's planting
intentions report showed farmers planning to increase production to 9.562 million acres, up 11.4% from
2015. Arkansas projections come in at 330,000 acres, up 57%, and the largest percentage gain of all the
cotton producing states. Weakness in the dollar provided support, and there was again talk of the
relatively tight supplies of higher quality cotton. At mid-day, May was trading above the 50% retracement
level of 60.19 cents, and a close above that level would suggest upside potential to the 62% level of 61.51
cents. December was also holding strong above resistance at the 38% retracement level of 58.69 cents. A
close above that level would suggest upside potential to the 50% retracement level of 60.09 cents.
Rice
High Low
Long Grain Cash Bids - - - - - Long Grain New Crop - - - - - -
Futures:
High Low
Last Change
Mar '17
May '17
Rice Comment
Rice futures were in positive territory at mid-day. It looks like futures are attempting to consolidate above
the recent spike low. Weekly exports came in at 91,200 tons for 15-16 and 11,000 tons for 16-17 delivery.
The market charted a huge bearish reversal last week in reaction to USDA's planting intentions report.
Rice acres are expected to be up 17% from 2015 at 3.064 million acres. All of that gain and then some
will be in long grain rice, while medium grain acreage will actually be down 17% across the country.
Arkansas is expected to plant 1.581 million acres of rice consisting of 1.43 million acres of long grain and
150,000 acres of medium grain. The crop progress report showed 16% of the rice in the ground
nationwide, with Arkansas coming in at 11% planted. Technically, the first level of support for May is
Thursday's low of $9.42 1/2, while overhead trendline resistance is currently near $10.15.
Cattle
Futures:
Live Cattle:
High
Low
Last Change
Low
Last Change
Hogs
Futures:
High Low
Last Change
Hog Comment
http://www.arfb.com/ag-markets-statistics/report/
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