MALTHUS, MARX AND MAO

Author(s): ALAN R. PLOTNICK

Reviewed work(s):
Source: Challenge, Vol. 12, No. 9 (JUNE 1964), pp. 9-12
Published by: M.E. Sharpe, Inc.
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40718848 .
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incomes are very high, as is the prove to be an importanttransfer rates. But, more significantly,
incase,thenit is fairlyclearthateither payment.
creasingovertimerates in some inin income dustrieswill lead to more automahoardingor personal consumption Whetherthe transfers
expenditures,with low multipliers, occur throughthe vehicle of budg- tion if the final demand for the
is taking place. Foreign travel by et deficits,differential
decreasesin productsis sufficient
to justifyhigher
the wealthy, purchases of goods taxes,subsidiesor other fiscaltech- costs.Or, more likely,high (differfromabroad, investmentsin what niques is mainlya questionof fiscal ential) overtimepenalties will reVeblencalled conspicuousconsump- technologyand does not affectthe duce productionand employment
in
tion on the whole tend to have a central economic argument. The manyindustries.At worst,the high
lower multiplierthan investmentssuggestedovertimewage penaltiesto labor costsmightpush up prices.
in industrye.g., the passivecapital induceemployersto hiremorework- The properpolicy,it seemsto me,
of ski lodges,summerhomes,yachts ers are, in my view,a short-sightedis to create favorableconditionsto
and expensiveapartmenthouses is and improperpolicy.One can doubt operate in, rather than dictating
less economicallyeffective
than the the equity of differential
overtime marketoperationsby fiat.
active capital of mines, mills, factories.Therefore,a modesttransfer
of incomefromthe verywealthyto
theless wealthyis not likelyto have Red China's
population and ideology
an adverseeffecton nationalinvestmentand income.On the contrary,
it maywell have a highlybeneficial
effect.
By bringingmanylow incomepeoof theeconple into themainstream
omy, the demand for housing,
schools,consumergoods of all sorts,
moremodestluxurygoods, medical
care and a varietyof serviceswill
increase.This increasewill not only
to be used
cause existinginvestment
more fully,but an accelerationef- by ALAN R. PLOTNICK
fectwill occur-that is, the increase
in consumerdemand may lead to
ofvarioussortsand Caughtbetweenthe harshrealityof a vastpopulation
new investments
at a faster
increasing
and Karl Marxs dogmathat"overpopulation*
thus reactivatethe private invest- ratethanproductivity
can exist
mentmarket.
have sevonlyunderan exploitative
capitalist
society,the ChineseCommunists
will, eral timesreversedtheirpositionon population
planning.At one time,during
Manyof theincometransfers
leadersevenproclaimed
of course,go throughgovernment- theGreatLeap Forward,the Communist
thata spiralwas a greateconomicasset.In morerecentyearsof famineand
will provide ingpopulation
thatis, thegovernment
industrial
and farmproduction,
theChineseleadershavereversed
services through its own budget. stagnant
themto lowerthenationalbirthrate
will be thesame selves.Now theyare trying
but are encountering
However,the effect
resistance
What stubborn
as any otherincometransfer..
tradition-bound
masses.Alan R. Plotfromtheuneducated,
nick
well
Assistant
if
transfers
are
is
Political
the
at
the
Professor
of
Economy
University
of Alberta.
mayhappen
plannedis that,as a resultof increasing the incomestatusof the lower
most discussions concerning government
have invariablyvacillatquarterof society,certainsocial side
will occurwhichwill be highChina's population, we are re- ed betweeneitheractingtoo late or
effects
ly beneficial.For example,the prob- mindedof the Malthusiandilemma not at all withrespectto thecrucial
lem of the social integrationof the of too many people relativeto the population problem which affects
Negro and the Puerto Rican will existingfood supply. Nobody dis- China's economic progress.In still
tend to be more readily solved in agreeswiththissocial and economic other ways, the tortuousroute of
the marketplaceif the income of truism.What is perhapsless clearly China's demographicideologyshows
such people is improved.
understoodis how the Chinese re- much less than completededication
One of themajorattackson segre- gime, over the past 15 years,has to Marxist-Leninist
doctrinewithin
gationis to improvetheeducational modifiedits populationviewsin re- the Chinese Politburo.
qualityof the depressedfractionof sponseto changinginternaleconomBy focusingon China'spopulation
the society,which will make them ic conditions.
problemswe can gain valuable inmore sociallyacceptable,as well as
The shiftingcurrentsof Chinese sightinto the country'srecentdiffieligibleforfuturehighearningsdue populationideologyreveala strange culties in raising the level of ecoto theirimprovedproductivity.
This and inconsistentpattern that par- nomic welfare. Also revealed are
and certainblind spots in the thinking
might imply subsidizingeducation allels China's past uncertainties
fora periodof timeforlow income achievementsin domesticeconomic of the ChinesePolitburoas it wresa stagnant,tradipeople,but the subsidyitselfwould planning.The leadersof theChinese tles to transform

MALTHUS,
MARX AND MAO

Challenge

June, 1964

tionalsocietyinto a dynamicindus- The Sovietsapparentlybelieve that It is now growingat about two per
trializedpowerplayinga dominant theycan adopt any population hy- cent annually, which means that
rolein worldaffairs.
pothesistheywishwithoutbreaking everyyearthereare about 14 million
To understandthe relationship the umbilicalcord that binds them or 15 million more people to feed.
In a countrywhereonly 11 per cent
betweenChina'spopulationideology to theirideologicalancestors.
and her philosophyof economic
Furthermore,Soviet economists of the land is arable, the constant
growth,we must review the back- apparently disagree among them- threatof famine,malnutritionand
groundof currentChinese thinking selves regardingthe desirabilityof death hangs heavilyover the counon the population question. Com- a populationcontrolprogram.They tryside,where 90 per cent of the
munist demographicideology was know that a rapid birthratecould people live.
Before the leaders of China ingreatlyinfluencedby Karl Marx's
Malthus.
Thomas
augurated their firstnational ecopolemicagainst
nomicplan, theycentralizedthe adWe mayrecall thatthe Malthusiministrationof governmentand
an theoryof populationwas actually
fastened their political control
a critique of the hypothesisthat
mankindwas makingreal progress.
throughoutthe nation. Concerning
the
in
was
that
population problem, Chinese
By emphasizing
poverty
leaders were uncertain.Sometimes
large measurethe resultof human
theyargued in supportof Marxian
fertility,Malthus created an antithesisbetweenthe social ills that
orthodoxy,and then they would
contradictthemselvesby accepting
originatein man's biological drives
Westernneo-Malthusianism.
No efand thosethat resultfromsociety's
fort
was
until
to
wealth
to
sufficient
made,
1962,
perinability produce
suade the people to reduce the size
and distributeit fairly.
of theirfamilies.The completestate
On the otherhand, Marx refused
of indecisionregardingthiskeyissue
to viewthe overpopulationproblem
not only reflecteda lack of underin termsof the Malthusianconcept
of man vs. resources.Marx thought
standing of the economic foundationsof Chinesepoliticalpower,but
that overpopulation,insofar as it
also
discloseda peculiar unwillinga
was
existed,
peculiarlycapitalist
ness to recognizethe presenceof a
labormarketproblemin whichthere
Malthus
werealwaysmoremen seekingjobs
dangerouseconomicundertowwithlabor
thantherewereemployment
create
shortagesby in theeconomy.
oppor- actually
The Communistslaunched their
tunities.From this "surpluslabor" removingwomen from the labor
first
Five-YearPlan in 1953. The
when
Marx's
force.
This
be
desirable
exceptional
might
premise, plus
was
to transform
China froman
acrofull
in
the
semantic
automation
takes
in
effect
to
goal
ability engage
batics, there emergeda "scientific SovietUnion,but fortheimmediate agriculturalinto an industrialnapopulationtheory"thathas become futurelabor is still an asset rather tion. Prioritieswere given to detheaccepteddoctrinein thepresent- than a liability.On the otherhand, veloping heavy industry with a
a slowerbirthratemightcause the minimal emphasis on agricultural
day Communistworld.
The Chinese Communists,who loss of certain planned economies expansion. Measured against prothe plan was
seized power in theirown country of scale as well as endangerthe de- ductionachievements,
severaldecades afterthe Bolsheviks velopmentof the easternregionsof a materialsuccess:steeloutputgrew
from 1.35 million to 5.35 million
establishedtheirrule in Russia, ex- theSovietUnion.
metrictonsbetween1952 and 1957;
hibited a strong devotion to the
Marxistpopulationphilosophyand
pig iron increasedfrom1.9 to 5.94
naivelydenied the applicabilityof When the Chinese Communists million tons; coal productionfrom
socioeconomicdoctrine seizedpowerin 1949,theywerecon- 63.5 to 130 million tons; electric
19th-century
to a world which, in their case, frontedby a demographicsituation powerfrom7.26 to 19.3millionkiloseemscloserto the one depictedby that hardlyseemed favorableto a watt-hours.
Malthus. Had the Chinese leaders long-run economic program. The
"regressed"and accepted classical country'spopulation was not only
population theoryas a guide to impoverishedbut also steeped in In terms of human welfare,howpopulation planning, they might archaicwaysof economicexistence; ever,the plan was a failure.Accordhave had a firmer
intellectualfoun- to Chinese planners the vast pool ing to Prof.AlexanderEcksteinof
of Michigan,the per
dation on which to build policies. of humanitymusthave appeared as the University
The Soviet Union, on the other an amorphous,undevelopedand, on capita supply of food did not inhand,has had moretimeto examine the whole, unproductiveresource. creaseat all in the yearsfrom1953
Marxistpopulationtheory,
Allowingfora netdecreaseduring to 1957. Moreover,the population
adapting
it to meet her own circumstances.the lean yearsof 1959-62,expertsin grewfroman estimatedtotalof 602
As a result,Marxist demographic Hong Kong estimatethat China's million in 1953 to more than 656
dogma has exerted much less in- population is presentlysomewhere millionin 1957.
A reviewof the firstChineseFivefluenceon officialSoviet ideology. between715 millionand 720 million.
10

Challenge

June, 1964

Year Plan revealsthe followingre- dustryhas firstbeen developed is productionachievementshad been

con- debatable. If in practice this doc- substantiallydistorted.At the end
sultsin relationto demographic
trineis followed,we maygain heavy of 1958 Peking boasted of an inditions:
The ChinesePolitburodelayed industryonly to lose man; we may crease of 103 per cent for food
launchinga programto limit the evenloseman withoutgainingheavy staples;thisfigurewas laterreduced
to a more modest36 per cent. Innation's population growth. The industry."
The responsibility
for the failure dustrial productionoriginallywas
publicationof the 1953 censuscoinwith said to have increased by 65 per
cided withthe beginningof theeco- of thefirst
plan restedprimarily
nomic plan, and, despite the un- the Central Committeeof the Chi- cent; later it underwentstatistical
favorabletrendsthatwererevealed, neseCommunistparty.Its chairman, surgery,being reduced to 20 per
nothingwas done to restrainthe Mao Tse-tung,and the five vice cent. Practicallyall output figures
chairmensacrificed
fundamental
eco- for key commodities, including
populationexplosionuntil 1962.
The procrastination
forbroaderpo- steel, grain and cotton,had to be
on demo- nomicconsiderations
graphicmatterscreatedunnecessary litical objectives,whichactuallybe- reduced,and even the new figures
internalsocial tensionsthat threat- came a threatto political security. wereopen to doubt.
The Great Leap Forward worsened thegovernment's
politicalcon- Unfortunately,the chairman precru- ened the demographicequilibrium,
troloverthepeople.Moraleslumped ferredto give his countrymen
both in rural and urban areas as sading slogans instead of practical forthe populationgrowthexceeded
foodexpansion,causinga renewalof
economicreforms.
foodbecamescarce.
famine.Conditionswereso bad that
Between1953and 1957 China's
theaveragecalorieintakeperperson
urban populationgrewby as much
2,100caloriesper
as 30 per cent,and theruralbynine Undaunted by their failures,the was approximately
The
Chinese
Communists
urban
half
of
the
cent.
government,
desperateto
proceeded day.
Nearly
per
increaseresultedfromthe migration with anotherdevelopmentprogram findexcusesfor its failures,at first
rural known as the "Great Leap For- pinned the blame on weatherconof peoplefromthefood-starved
As
the
cities.
to
the
enough,
popula- ward." Under this plan (1958-62) ditions.Then, surprisingly
regions
made the incredible the Communist leaders admitted
tion pressureincreased,stricterra- thegovernment
tioningwas applied in the cities, decisionto throwaway all restraints that theireconomicplan, especially
adding to existingsocial discontent. on populationexpansionon the as- the highlytoutedcommunesystem,
Westernanalystsof the Chinese sumptionthat people were an asset was the cause of the nation's ecoeconomy agree that China's first contributingto economic growth. nomicmisery.
Since the collapse of the Great
plan failedlargelybecauseof inade- The otherside of the question,the
in thefarmsector.
Leap Forward,the Chinese regime
quate investments
has taken care to enlightenitself
This mistakewas compoundedby
on what the People's Daily recently
the demoralizingcollectivizationof
referredto as the "laws of economfarmland.These conditions,plus
ic development."This particular
numerousnatural disastersduring
1953-55and 1956-57,led to a sharp
change in Communistthinkingapfallin livingstandards.If thecalampears firstof all to be a delayed
admissionthat, Marxist views notities that befell the firstFive-Year
a core of truthexists
Plan convincedthe nation'sleaders
withstanding,
in the Westernclassicaldoctrinesof
that a betterallocationof material
Malthus.Secondly,classicalpopularesourceswas needed, they must
tionviewswentignoredbecause the
seen
the
have
also
importance
surely
of controllingthe economy'smost
political-mindedmembers of the
Chinese Politburodid not want to
vital resource,human beings.
surrenderpowerto theeconomicexconYet the Chinesegovernment
in the mattinued to procrastinate
perts. Finally, many party leaders
terof humancapital planning,with
apparentlydoubted that a population controlprogramcould be efdisastrousconsequences.Chou En-lai
has said on severaloccasions: "We
fectively
implemented.Yet, without
form of population control,
some
can wait, the Chinese know how
Marx
the regimeonlysucceededin underChinese
to wait."This characteristic
a modernattitudeis not necessarily
mining traditionalChinese society
day virtue, especially when each possibilityof sustainingrisinglevels withoutraisingthegeneralstandard
passingyear increasesthe disparity of food production,was somehow of living.
betweenpeople and resources.
By acceptingWesternpopulation
ignored. Population expansion, it
Disillusionment with the first was thought,would somehowbe ab- attitudesthe Chinese are, in effect,
Five-YearPlan set in quickly. In sorbedthroughthe internalresilien- admittingthatMarxistdemographic
1957 one Peking newspaperstated cy of China's economic structure. theoriesdo not help China achieve
Like thefirstplan, theGreatLeap economic progress.Acceptance of
that"thedoctrinewhichteachesthat
It grad- neo-Malthusianism
ended disastrously.
Forward
and
of
points to a new
development agriculture light
is possibleonlyif heavyin- ually transpiredthat the original demographicoutlook that contrasts
industry
Challenge

June, 1964

11

sharplywiththe 1950s.Duringthose cropsgrownon small plotsset aside capital were available,whichis the
yearsnationalproblemswereexam- forprivateuse. The communeshave main handicap,China's arable land
ined froman almostparanoieview- been brokenup into much smaller could be doubled. Anotherchoice,
point; feudallandlordsand bureau- units, called "production teams," fraughtwith danger,would be for
to shift
its efforts
craticcapitalistswere held responsi- each consistingof 20 to 30 families. China to intensify
Birthcontroland agriculturalre- part of its population into Southble for the nation's woes. Foreign
visitorsweretoldthata "population organizationare a double-barreled eastAsia.
PresidentKennedyregardedChiproblem"did not exist and that it answerto the Malthusianproblem
was only an inventionof "the for- that has harrassedMao Tse-tung na as America'sgreatestforeignpoleign capitaliststryingto shift the since he came to power. But the icy problem in the decade of the
blame for their oppressionof the synthesisof a completepopulation 1960s.His fearswerebased not only
Chinese people onto the backs of controlprogramwill also dependon on the likelihood that Communist
measuresthatraiseproductivity
and China would soon acquire nuclear
the people themselves."
withThese and similar fantasieswill morale in Chinese industry.Earlier weapons,but also on pressures
no longerbe so easilydispensedto mistakeshave taught the Chinese in China formorespace as itspopufarm and city workerswho have leadership to give top priorityto lation approached the one billion
beforethe end of
lived throughtheharshyearsof two agriculturerather than industry, mark,a certainty
economicplans.The Chi- but the emphasiswill probablybe this century.Though China is a
ineffectual
nese people are also becomingin- changedonce again whenthecrucial serious threat to the countriesof
creasinglyaware that the govern- equilibriumbetweenman and avail- Southeast Asia, it is perhaps an
even greatermenaceto the U.S.S.R.
ment'sown economicplanningcan able food is re-established.
We must considerhow valuable
lead to disasterquite independently A successfulprogramof population controlin China would offer Cambodia or Thailand appear to
of foreigncapitalistdevils.
thelong-runpossibility
of a substan- the Chinese in comparison with
tial decline in the level of human southernSiberiaor OuterMongolia.
Ihe present demographiccontrol fertility.
Ironicallyenough,thistend- These latterareas wereonce partof
programin Red China consistsof ency contradictsMalthus, who be- theManchuempire,and thecurrent
remains Chinese regimemaintainsthat it is
fourmajor parts: (1) familyplan- lieved that human fertility
that
recommendation
the rightfulheir to all territories
ning; (2)
underManchu
whichwereformerly
sterilizationof husband or wife be
rule.The currentSino-Soviet
undertakenwherelarge familiesaldispute
providesthe Chinesewithan added
readyexist; (3) tolerationof aborof marexcuse to press their claim to the
tion;and (4) postponement
not
who
have
lands lostbyChina in pastcenturies.
students
riage among
The failureto resolvetheinternal
yetcompletedtheireducation.
The birth controlcampaignhas
populationproblemencouragesChiin foreignaffairs.
nese aggressiveness
apparentlybeen widelyacceptedin
Yet we are told by the Chinesethat
the cities,but therehas been little
domesticconditionshave now improgressin the rural areas, where
A recentissue
90 per cent of China's people live.
provedconsiderably.
of the PekingReview,forinstance,
Reportsindicatethat the traditionassertedthat "since 1961 the ecobound peasants,as well as the unare opnomic situationhas improvedyear
educatedindustrialworkers,
and
use
the
to
late
marriages
by year,and thisyear (1963) there
posed
of birthcontrolmeasures.Since the
has been a generalturnforthe better.The situationis changingfaster
by and largestillclingsto
peasantry
than anyoneexpected."
the old notionthatearlymarriages
These reportsmust be accepted
and large numbersof childrenare
Mao
withcaution,in viewof China'spast
the best securityagainstold age, it
is unlikelythatChina's leaderswill moireor less constant.If Chinese practiceof dressingup failuresas
solve their immediate population familycontrolefforts
are successful, statisticalsuccesses.In any case, the
could
furnish
a
entirely
through
growthproblems
they
demographic China of today is still less indusAsian trializedthan Russia was in 1917,
propagandaprogramsaimed at lim- modelforotheroverpopulated
size.
countries
to
emulate
as
iting family
theytryto and theChineseeconomyhas probaSlowingdown populationgrowth attaineconomicmaturity.
bly not fullyrecoveredfromthe reverses of past years. China may
throughbirthcontrolprovidesonly
half the answerto China's problem.
appear to be a terriblemenace to
While limitingpopulation growth, I here are other alternativesopen her underdevelopedAsiatic neighleadersare endeavor- to the Chineseas theyreach foran bors. But in relationto the Soviet
theCommunist
ing to increasefood productionby optimumpopulation. Besides birth Union and the UnitedStates,China
the remainssomethingof a "paper tigiving farmersgreater incentives. controland farmreorganization,
Once again the peasant is being Chinesecould extendthe cultivated ger." It is about the futurestrength
allowed to sell,on the open market, surfacein theircountry.If enough of China thatwe mustbe wary.
12

Challenge

June, 1964