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This lab uses a model of the carbon cycle to give you a sense for how carbon
circulates through the atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, and crust. It allows
you to experiment with how human input to the cycle might change global
outcomes to the year 2100 and beyond. One particularly relevant human
impact is the increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. Between the years 1850
and 2006, atmospheric concentrations have risen from 290 parts per million
(ppm) to over 380 ppm - a level higher than any known on Earth in more
than 30 million years. Using the simulator, you will experiment with the
human factors that contribute to this rise and explore how different inputs to
the carbon cycle might affect the concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO2.
Part 1 - The Carbon Cycle
Step 1
Run the simulation to 2100 with the default settings, and, using your Data
Table, record the total carbon levels in each "sink" (terrestrial plants, soil, oil
and gas, coal, surface ocean, and deep ocean) at 2050 and 2100. Using the
data you collect from the model, answer the following questions while
thinking about how the model mimics real-life conditions.
Note: The default setting for the increase in fossil fuel use per year is 1.5%.
This rate of increase is also a reasonable projection for the increase in global
energy use, as the world's economies continue to ramp up and populations
grow.
1. If only one half of the plants in the world existed in 2100 (perhaps due
to deforestation), what do you predict the atmospheric carbon level
would be ? How would you change the simulation to reflect this?
2. What is the relationship between increased carbon in the ocean and
increased carbon in the soil? How else might carbon be transferred to
soil?
3. What happens to the level of atmospheric carbon as fossil fuel
consumption increases? Why does this happen?
Step 2
In many scenarios, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is projected to
increase beyond 700 ppm by the end of the century. However, this increase
in atmospheric carbon doesn't account for all of the carbon released by
burning fossil fuels.
To find out where all the carbon really goes, run the simulation again, one
decade at a time. Record the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere (the
number in the sky) and other carbon sinks (terrestrial plants, soil, surface
ocean, and deep ocean), as carbon moves through the system. Note that 1
ppm of atmospheric CO2 is equivalent to 2.1 GT (Gigatons) of carbon. As you
record your data, keep in mind that this is a simulation of real life. Think
about the questions below.
1. What is the relationship between an increase in fossil fuel consumption
and increased carbon in terrestrial plants? How might this change plant
populations? What impact could twenty years at this level of
consumption have on plant life?
2. What is the relationship between an increase in total carbon
concentration (the smokestack) and increased carbon in the ocean
surface? How might this change marine life populations? What impact
could fifty years at this level of emissions have on marine animals? On
marine plants?
3. In addition to circulating through the carbon cycle, where else might
excess carbon be found? In fifty years, where would you be most likely
to see excess carbon?
4. Which areas are most highly (and quickly) affected by an increase in
carbon emissions (and increase in fossil fuel consumption)? How would
these effects manifest themselves? What are the dangers/benefits to
these areas?
Conclusion
1. How will the increased carbon levels as noted in your Data Table affect
current animal and plant populations? Will the number and variety of
species change? How will they change?
2. From your collected data and what you have learned so far, what do
you propose as a solution to this dilemma?
3. Lesson 1:
4. Step 1
5.
To Year
2000
2050
2100
Gaseous
Carbon
Atmosphere
Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface
Deep
Ocean
Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas
Coal
Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil
Terrestrial
Plants
Lesson 1:
Step 2
To Year
Total Carbon
Emissions
Gaseous
Carbon
Smokestack
Atmospher
e
Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface
Deep
Ocean
Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas
Coal
Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil
Terrestrial
Plants
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Step 2
As you saw in Step 1, even with no further input from humans, the elevated
levels of atmospheric CO2 caused by a century of fossil fuel burning will
continue to impact the carbon cycle because the system attempts to reach a
state of equilibrium, with the exception of the gradual moving of carbon from
the surface to the deep ocean, which happens only over longer time-scales.
It could take 2000 years or more for this process to restore atmospheric
CO2 to pre-industrial levels.
Reducing carbon emissions to zero is far from realistic. Many scientists agree
that a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2concentration to approximately 550
ppm is a reasonable target to shoot for in order to avoid the most serious
impacts on climate and ecosystems. How much of a change in fossil fuel
consumption would we have to make to limit atmospheric CO2 to that level?
Return to the simulation and change the annual percentage increase in fossil
fuel usage until you can keep atmospheric CO2below 550 ppm in 2100. Once
you have found an appropriate level of fossil fuel percentage increase,
predict what would happen if fuel use stayed at that percentage increased
and deforestation decreased. In fifty years, if deforestation were decreased
50%, how would the carbon levels in the soil change? Run the simulation to
test your hypothesis. Were you correct? Were you surprised by the result?
What about your result surprised you?
1. What effect does a high carbon level have on the deep ocean? Why
might it be important to keep an eye on the deep ocean carbon levels?
What could that one number tell you about the cycle as a whole?
2. Try reducing the level of fossil fuel percentage increase and decrease
deforestation by 50%. Predict what will happen to the atmospheric
carbon levels and record it in your Data Table. Run the simulation to
test your hypothesis. Were you correct? Were you surprised by the
result? What about your result surprised you?
Conclusion
You've seen that the increase in fossil fuel use would have to be less than
half of the projected increase in energy demand (1.5% per year) in order to
keep atmospheric CO2 below 550 ppm. Consider what this means in real
terms.
1. What non-carbon-burning energy sources could be used to keep
carbon emissions down?
2. Considering the extra carbon created by humans, how might it
be possible (or is it?) to generate more means of recycling
carbon?
Lesson 2:
Step 1
To Year
Gaseous Carbon
Atmosphere
Ocean Water
Ocean Surface
Deep Ocean
Terrestrial
Plants
2000
2050
2100
Lesson 2:
Step 2
To Year
2000
2050
2100
Gaseous Carbon
Net Def.
Rate
Fossil Fuel
% Increase
Atmosphere
Deep Ocean
Conclusion
As you have seen in this lab, despite the natural tendency of the carbon
cycle to regulate the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, the system is
currently being overwhelmed by human fossil fuel use and deforestation. If
this increase in atmospheric CO2results in temperature rises as scientists
predict, there are several possible factors that could cause feedback effects.
If human beings are to mitigate these risks, they will have to take strong
action soon.
What are some viable ways of lessening the effect that increased carbon has
on the following?
1. Impact on human life
2. Destruction of the cycle
3. Global warming
4. Reduction or extinction of species, biomass
Lesson 3:
Step 1
To Year
2000
2060
2080
2100
Lesson 3:
Step 2
To Year
2000
2050
2100
Tundra
Melt
Rate
Net
Def.
Rate
Soil
Gaseous
Carbon
Atmosphere
Terrestrial Plants
Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface
Deep
Ocean
Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas
Coal
Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil
Terrestrial
Plants