The following spreadsheets provide a summary of the inputs used to develop a prediction model for

construction equipment sales of a particular model year in the past and in the future.
These data were used to determine the relationship between construction GDP and new construction equipment sales, which
CARB staff used the economic recovery factors as inputs to the Off-road Simulation Model (OSM). For more details, consult
the Off-Road Diesel Rule.

Each of the spreadsheets is summarized below:

Spreadsheet
Construction Sales Data
Construction GDP_Employment
Construction Correlation
Construction Regression Model
Construction BAU Sales
Construction Adjustment Factors

Description
Contains raw data concerning new financed equipment sales from Equipment Data Asso
Also contains a summary table for calendar year/model year 1990 to 2008.
Contains California construction GDP from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Califo
data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A linear regression plot used to predict California construction GDP from construction em
This correlation was used to predict construction GDP in 2009 and 2010 only since const
Contains coefficients from a multiple linear regression model to predict equipment sales
and a comparison table of actual sales and predicted sales using the linear regression m
A linear regression plot used to predict business as usual sales for construction and mini
A summary of the data used to derive model year adjustment factors for construction and

For additional information, please contact:

Nicole Dolney
Manager, Off-Road Diesel Analyis Section
ndolney@arb.ca.gov
916-322-1695

uction equipment sales, which were used to develop economic recovery factors (See Age Distributions.mdb).
SM). For more details, consult the Technical Support Document for

les from Equipment Data Associates UCC-1 Database.

ear 1990 to 2008.
u of Economic Analysis, California construction employment

tion GDP from construction employment data.

2009 and 2010 only since construction GDP data were not available for those years.
del to predict equipment sales from California construction GDP.
s using the linear regression model.
sales for construction and mining equipment into the future.
ent factors for construction and mining equipment.

Calendar Year
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992

Type
New or Used
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
SALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
WHOLESALE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
LEASE
N
RENTAL
N
RENTAL
N

AGE
0
1
2
-2
20
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
4
5
N/A
0
1
10
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
25
N/A
0
1
2
3
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1

Count
570
455
25
2
1
235
351
419
51
150
1330
1554
1
133
1
2
1089
142
133
1
8
97
277
322
3
17
116
180
233
14
75
554
808
1
69
1
629
157
145
23
1
121
137
109
1
11
83
110
112

MY
1990
1989
1988
1992
1970
1990
1989
1988
1990
1989
1991
1988
1986
1985
1990
1989
1980
1988
1991
1990
1992
1989
1991
1990
1989
1991
1990
1992
1989
1966
1991
1990
1989
1988
1992
1991
1993
1990
1992
1991

1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994

RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

2
3
N/A
0
1
11
2
27
4
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
2
6
N/A
0
1
2
3
N/A
0
1
-1
10
2
-2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
23
3
4

6
1
67
509
445
2
56
4
1
556
222
118
28
105
181
113
5
1
98
248
126
5
1
67
717
419
3
1
34
1
482
271
139
1
9
173
202
87
9
105
228
144
13
50
1050
593
4
51
1
2
1

1990
1989
1992
1991
1981
1990
1965
1988
1992
1991
1990
1993
1992
1991
1987
1993
1992
1991
1990
1993
1992
1994
1983
1991
1995
1993
1992
1994
1991
1994
1993
1992
1994
1993
1992
1994
1993
1995
1992
1971
1991
1990

1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996

SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

N/A
0
1
-1
2
3
N/A
0
1
-1
2
-2
N/A
0
1
2
-2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
-2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
3
8
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A

580
390
218
1
28
3
136
344
158
3
6
2
175
276
171
8
9
35
1320
687
6
42
35
534
606
200
3
6
114
421
198
1
10
260
231
195
9
13
51
1544
1126
43
72
3
1
684
765
320
41
12
136

1994
1993
1995
1992
1991
1995
1994
1996
1993
1997
1995
1994
1993
1997
1995
1994
1996
1993
1997
1995
1994
1996
1993
1996
1995
1997
1994
1996
1995
1997
1994
1996
1995
1997
1994
1993
1988
1996
1995
1997
1994

1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999

LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
9
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1

499
256
3
6
409
318
132
6
50
1897
1002
6
68
905
607
326
1
5
302
601
238
5
2
445
390
119
1
38
2593
1095
22
12
1073
694
359
8
7
4
126
592
219
5
8
460
401
122
1
2
54
3069
1086

1997
1996
1998
1995
1997
1996
1995
1997
1996
1998
1995
1997
1996
1998
1995
1998
1997
1999
1996
1998
1997
1999
1998
1997
1999
1996
1998
1997
1999
1996
1989
1999
1998
2000
1997
1999
1998
2000
1997
1999
1998

1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002

SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

-1
11
12
2
3
4
N/A
0
1
-1
3
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
10
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
3
-4
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0

17
1
1
28
2
1
1122
575
290
3
1
127
548
263
1
2
565
282
129
1
64
2775
1405
2
1
3
1232
411
214
4
152
362
253
1
568
173
92
1
69
2642
1515
23
3
1
1
1306
187
105
4
101
264

2000
1988
1987
1997
1996
1995
1999
1998
2000
1996
2000
1999
2001
1998
2000
1999
2001
2000
1999
2001
1990
1998
2000
1999
2001
2001
2000
2002
2001
2000
2002
2001
2000
2002
1999
1998
2005
2001
2000
2002
2002

2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005

LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

1
-1
N/A
0
1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1

141
5
378
102
67
33
2830
1469
17
2
1352
196
75
1
162
313
107
11
2
312
117
68
46
3308
1433
64
1
1137
324
124
2
131
563
158
21
575
176
56
17
43
5099
1517
153
1
1186
405
240
111
122
745
203

2001
2003
2002
2001
2002
2001
2003
2000
2002
2001
2003
2003
2002
2004
2001
2003
2002
2003
2002
2004
2001
2003
2002
2004
2004
2003
2005
2004
2003
2005
2004
2003
2005
2002
2004
2003
2005
2005
2004

2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007

LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

-1
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
3
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
-2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
2
6
8
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
13
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1

14
552
220
59
14
33
5926
1951
89
7
1
1400
635
111
22
1
219
864
298
40
6
1
657
225
68
16
2
36
4922
2517
192
10
1
1
1696
591
140
11
203
603
291
48
1
1
1006
105
35
7
18
3383
1810

2006
2005
2004
2006
2005
2004
2006
2003
2002
2005
2004
2006
2003
2006
2005
2007
2004
2008
2006
2005
2007
2004
2006
2005
2007
2004
2000
1998
2006
2005
2007
2007
2006
2008
1994
2005
2007
2006
2008
2007
2006

2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009

SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
LEASE
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
RENTAL
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
SALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE
WHOLESALE

N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A
0
1
-1
2
3
6
9
N/A
0
1
-1
N/A

96
5
1118
534
149
2
287
371
137
24
3
1680
107
39
9
25
1855
941
59
3
1065
516
64
44
148
125
87
8
2
547
131
45
2
37
444
540
6
3
1
1
1
561
72
65
3
24

2008
2005
2007
2006
2008
2008
2007
2009
2006
2008
2007
2009
2008
2007
2009
2006
2008
2007
2009
2009
2008
2010
2007
2009
2008
2010
2009
2008
2010
2007
2006
2003
2000
2009
2008
2010

Data Summary
Model Year/Calendar Year
New Financed Equipment Sales
1990
2194
1991
1033
1992
979
1993
1352
1994
1809
1995
2514
1996
2558
1997
3020
1998
3682
1999
4477
2000
4292
2001
4112
2002
4264
2003
4832
2004
7060
2005
8448
2006
6735
2007
4327
2008
2395

For the Data Summary Table, new financed equipment sales for a particular calendar/model year were calculated using the co
equipment sales plus the age 1 equipment sales from the following year plus the age 2 equipment sales from the second year.
For example: Model/Calendar Year 1990 sales = 1330 (Age 0, CY 1990) + 808 (Age 1, CY 1991) + 56 (Age 3, CY 1992) = 219

l year were calculated using the count of age 0

ipment sales from the second year.
1991) + 56 (Age 3, CY 1992) = 2194 sales

Calendar Year Employment (thousands)

1990
644.9
1991
562.3
1992
495.5
1993
459.4
1994
476
1995
500.5
1996
517.2
1997
556
1998
615.5
1999
684.9
2000
733.4
2001
780.4
2002
774.4
2003
796.8
2004
850.4
2005
905.3
2006
933.7
2007
892.6
2008
787.7
2009
644.5
2010
572.5

GDP (millions)
36600
31937
29021
27226
29600
30877
32393
36325
41672
46606
51716
57186
58595
61177
69431
79210
84183
76548
67770
45448
37007

* For 2009 and 2010, construction GDP was calculated based on the ratio of air transport employment for the current year to th
since construction GDP data were not available for those years

ployment for the current year to the previous year

California Construction Employment and GDP Correlation

Construction GDP (millions dollars)

90000
80000
70000

f(x) = 117.2303672447x - 30107.4594439888

R = 0.9603193145

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
400

500

600

700

800

Construction Employment (thousands)

900

1000

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.96551326
R Square
0.93221586
Adjusted R Square
0.92374284
Standard Error
570.810289
Observations
19
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

SS
MS
2 71695506.4514167 35847753.23
16 5213190.18016225 325824.3863
18 76908696.6315789

Coefficients
-1981.52164
-96.3393054
0.12979753

F
110.0217010678

Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
421.266520669 -4.703724458
0.0002390187
45.2241737399 -2.130261261
0.0490169164
0.0135641814 9.569138327 5.051507126728E-008

Predicted Sales = -96.3*(Year Index) + 0.13*(GDP year+1) - 1981.5

Model year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Year Index
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

GDP(calendar year + 1)
31937
29021
27226
29600
30877
32393
36325
41672
46606
51716
57186
58595
61177
69431
79210
84183
76548
67770
45448

Actual Sales
2194
1033
979
1352
1809
2514
2558
3020
3682
4477
4292
4112
4264
4832
7060
8448
6735
4327
2395

Predicted Sales
2164
1689
1360
1572
1641
1741
2155
2753
3297
3864
4478
4564
4803
5778
6951
7500
6413
5177
2183

Average % Difference

Significance F
4.456818E-010

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

-2874.5667604 -1088.477 -2874.566760426
-192.21027029 -0.46834 -192.2102702866
0.1010427483 0.158552
0.1010427483

% Difference
-1.4
63.5
38.9
16.2
-9.3
-30.7
-15.7
-8.8
-10.5
-13.7
4.3
11.0
12.6
19.6
-1.5
-11.2
-4.8
19.6
-8.8

3.6

Upper 95.0%
-1088.47651317
-0.4683404298
0.158552308

9000

Predicted Historical SalesActual Sales

8000

7000

Financed Sales

6000

BAU Sales
(i.e. No GDP impact)

5000
f(x) = 117.6945833342x - 231652.748226946
4000

3000

Recession Period
2000

1000
2009 Predicted
Sales
0
1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

Model Year

1993

1998

2003

2008

Predicted Sales = -96.3*(Year Index) + 0.13*(GDP year+1) - 1981.5

Predicted Sales Coefficients
Intercept
-1981.5
Year Index Coefficient
-96.3
GDP Coefficient
0.13
Business as Usual (BAU) Sales = 118*(Model Year) - 231653
BAU Sales Coefficients
Model Year Coefficient
118
Intercept
-231653

Model Year
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Year Index
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031

GDP + 1
5379.02
5668
6302
7121
7685
8252
9834
11390
13586
15854
16480
17005
15971
17227
21716
25001
28864
31606
34546
36769
36600
31937
29021
27226
29600
30877
32393
36325
41672
46606
51716
57186
58595
61177
69431
79210
84183
76548
67770
45448
37007

Fast Scenario
Actual/Predicted Sales
740
681
667
677
654
631
740
846
1034
1232
1217
1189
958
1025
1512
1842
2247
2506
2792
2984
2865
2194
1033
979
1352
1809
2514
2558
3020
3682
4477
4292
4112
4264
4832
7060
8448
6735
4327
2395
991
1585
2178
2771
3364
3958
4551
5144

Slow Scenario
Actual/Predicted Sales
740
681
667
677
654
631
740
846
1034
1232
1217
1189
958
1025
1512
1842
2247
2506
2792
2984
2865
2194
1033
979
1352
1809
2514
2558
3020
3682
4477
4292
4112
4264
4832
7060
8448
6735
4327
2395
991
991
1109
1227
1345
1462
1580
1698

Average Scenario
Actual/Predicted Sales
740
681
667
677
654
631
740
846
1034
1232
1217
1189
958
1025
1512
1842
2247
2506
2792
2984
2865
2194
1033
979
1352
1809
2514
2558
3020
3682
4477
4292
4112
4264
4832
7060
8448
6735
4327
2395
991
1288
1644
1999
2354
2710
3065
3421

5737
5855
5973
6090
6208
6326
6443
6561
6679
6796
6914
7032
7150
7267
7385

1815
1933
2051
2168
2286
2404
2522
2639
2757
2875
2992
3110
3228
3345
3463

3776
3894
4012
4129
4247
4365
4482
4600
4718
4836
4953
5071
5189
5306
5424

Modified Final Scenario

Actual/Predicted Sales
740
681
667
677
654
631
740
846
1034
1232
1217
1189
958
1025
1512
1842
2247
2506
2792
2984
2865
2194
1033
979
1352
1809
2514
2558
3020
3682
4477
4292
4112
4264
4832
7060
8448
6735
4327
2395
991
1288
1644
1999
2354
2710
3065
3421

Business as Usual
Actual/Predicted Sales
87.89
205.58
323.28
440.97
558.66
676.36
794.05
911.75
1029.44
1147.14
1264.83
1382.53
1500.22
1617.92
1735.61
1853.31
1971.00
2088.69
2206.39
2324.08
2441.78
2559.47
2677.17
2794.86
2912.56
3030.25
3147.95
3265.64
3383.33
3501.03
3618.72
3736.42
3854.11
3971.81
4089.50
4207.20
4324.89
4442.59
4560.28
4677.98
4795.67
4913.36
5031.06
5148.75
5266.45
5384.14
5501.84
5619.53

Fast
Adjustment Factor
1.00
3.31
2.06
1.53
1.17
0.93
0.93
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.96
0.86
0.64
0.63
0.87
0.99
1.14
1.20
1.27
1.28
1.17
0.86
0.39
0.35
0.46
0.60
0.80
0.78
0.89
1.05
1.24
1.15
1.07
1.07
1.18
1.68
1.95
1.52
0.95
0.51
0.21
0.32
0.43
0.54
0.64
0.74
0.83
0.92

Slow
Adjustment Factor
1.00
3.31
2.06
1.53
1.17
0.93
0.93
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.96
0.86
0.64
0.63
0.87
0.99
1.14
1.20
1.27
1.28
1.17
0.86
0.39
0.35
0.46
0.60
0.80
0.78
0.89
1.05
1.24
1.15
1.07
1.07
1.18
1.68
1.95
1.52
0.95
0.51
0.21
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.27
0.29
0.30

3776
4132
4487
4843
5198
5554
5909
6264
6620
6975
7331
7686
8042
8397

5737.23
5854.92
5972.62
6090.31
6208.00
6325.70
6443.39
6561.09
6678.78
6796.48
6914.17
7031.87
7149.56
7267.26
7384.95

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.32
0.33
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47

Average
Modified Scenario
Adjustment Factor Adjustment Factor
1.00
1.00
3.31
3.31
2.06
2.06
1.53
1.53
1.17
1.17
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.93
1.00
1.00
1.07
1.07
0.96
0.96
0.86
0.86
0.64
0.64
0.63
0.63
0.87
0.87
0.99
0.99
1.14
1.14
1.20
1.20
1.27
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.17
1.17
0.86
0.86
0.39
0.39
0.35
0.35
0.46
0.46
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.78
0.78
0.89
0.89
1.05
1.05
1.24
1.24
1.15
1.15
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.18
1.18
1.68
1.68
1.95
1.95
1.52
1.52
0.95
0.95
0.51
0.51
0.21
0.21
0.26
0.26
0.33
0.33
0.39
0.39
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.56
0.61
0.61

0.66
0.67
0.67
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.72
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.73

0.66
0.71
0.75
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.95
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00