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PowerRankings:TheSecondTierTheAmericanInterest

2015WATCH

PowerRankings:TheSecondTier

Publishedon:January10,2015

WALTERRUSSELLMEAD&NICHOLASM.GALLAGHER

Thesecondpartofourseriesonglobalpowerin2015.
Thistime:theaspiringpowers,theregionalhegemons,
thehasbeensandthewannabes.

nthefirstinstallmentinthisseries,weprofiledtherealG7thecountrieswhoseglobalswaydominates
internationalpolitics.ButthegreatpowersplayarentalonetheyplaytheiroftenMachiavelliangames
amongstahostofallies,risingpowers,andantagonistsandoftenitishowthesevitalsecondaryplayers
performthataffectsthedaytodayoutcomeofgeopolitics.
Todaywelookatthesecondtieroftheworldspowerrankings.Thesepowersdontruletheworld,butthey
helpshapeitinimportantways.Onethingmanyofthemdoisformalliancesthatboostandtosomedegree
channelthepowerofthetoptiercountries.ThepowerofthesealliancesisveryrealAmericasunique
networkofallianceswithothercountriesisbothasignandacauseofitspreeminentpower.TheUnitedStates
continuestodefypredictionsofitsimminentdeclineandfallinpartbecauseAmericanpowerisconstantly
gettingboostsfromthenetwork,evenassecondtiercountrieslikeBritainorIsraelbenefitfromanAmerican
alliancethatgivestheminfluenceandaccessthattheymightotherwiselack.
Sohere,indescendingorderofpower,aretheworldsregionalpowers,aspiringglobalpowers,orfadingstars.
TheseeightcountriescouldntinvadetheUnitedStatesorbullyChinaeconomically.Buttheystillhelpshape
theworldweliveinandsometimes,iftheyplayacannygame,formtherightpartnerships,andmakethe
rightmoveattherighttime,theycanevenpullofftheoccasionalwinoveragreatpower.Orsotheyhope.

1)Iran
Ofallthesecondtierpowers,Iranismakingthemostdeterminedpushtoelbowitswaytotheglobalhigh
table.Essentially,IranwantsSaudiArabiasrole.ItwantsenoughpowerinthePersianGulfthatTehranwill
replaceRiyadhasthepowerthatdeterminestheOPECoilprice.ItalsowantstotakeSaudiArabiasplaceas
theleadingIslamicpoweranditwantstobethestrongestregionalpowereastofEuropeandwestofIndia.
SuccesswouldmakeIranoneoftheglobalgreats,andtheIranianshavebeenwillingtopayahighpriceand
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rungreatriskstotrytobootstrapthemselvesuptotheworldsPremierLeague.

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Iranhasbothhandicapsandadvantagesinitsquest.ItsbiggesthandicapsareitsShiareligionandnonArab
ethnicitymanySunniArabsconsiderShiismadangerousheresyanddistrustPersians.Amongitsadvantages:
ithasamuchlargerpopulationandamuchmoreadvancedpoliticalandeconomicstructurethanmostofthe
Arabstatesitwantstodominate.Additionally,whileitsShiafaithhurtsIranwithmanyArabs,thereare
significantShiaArabpopulationsinIraq,inSyria(AssadandhisAlawikinfolksidewiththeShia),Bahrain
(whereaSunnidynastyrulesoverarestiveShiamajority),Lebanon(wheretheShiasupportIransally
Hezbollah),andSaudiArabiaitself,wheremanyofthepeoplewholiveintheoilrichEasternProvinceare
Shia.CombinethehardpowerofitsIranspushforgreatpowerstatuswithitssoftpowerappealtoShiaco
religionists,andyouhaveaformidableforcethatcanrealisticallyaspiretodominateoneofthemoststrategic
regionsintheworld.
IranalsobenefitsfromitshostilitytoIsraelandtheUnitedStates.Bothcountriesarewildlyunpopularacross
mostoftheMiddleEast,andIrancanpointtoSaudiArabiaslongtimealliancewithU.S.aswellasRiyadhs
(mutedandconditional)supportforcoexistencewithIsraeltoshowthatIran,nottheSaudiArabia,isthetrue
leaderofIslamicresistancetotheWest.ThissoftpowerhelpsoffsetIransreligiousandethnicdisadvantages
intheregionfearoflosingthatadvantageisonereasonthatIran,evenasitgingerlynegotiateswiththeU.S.
andothersoverthenuclearissue,continuestoscoffattheideaofatruerapprochementwiththeUnitedStates.
Atthemoment,Iranhasyetanotheradvantage:thewidespreadbeliefsharedbymanyofitsadversariesthat
PresidentObamaiswillingtoofferSaudiArabiascurrentjobtoIran.Rightlyorwrongly,suspiciousSunni
ArabanalystsandpolicymakersallacrosstheregionbelievethattheUnitedStates,beginningwiththe
overthrowof(Sunni)SaddamHusseinunderBushandcontinuingunderObamawithitsrefusaltopushfor
regimechangeagainst(Shia)AssadinSyria,isouttoweakenanddividetheSunniArabworldandtoinstall
IranasAmericasregionalproxy.
Howallthisshakesoutin2o15andbeyondisanybodysguess.ButSaudiArabiaandIran,eachwithproxies
andclients,areengagedintheugliest,bloodiestandmostbittershowdownintheworldtoday.Theprizeis
greatpowerstatusIranbelievesthatifitcanreplaceSaudiArabiaastheprimeregionalpower,itslarger
populationandmoreadvancedeconomy(potentiallywithnuclearweaponsaswell)willmakeitamuchmore
formidableglobalforcethantheSaudikingdomcouldeverhopetobe.

2)Britain
Britainisnotthesuperpowerthatitoncewas,butmanyBritswouldliketothinkitretainsaplaceattheglobal
hightable.ItdoesntacombinationofdeepmilitarycutsanddiplomaticineptitudemeanthattheUK,likeits
ancientrivalFrance,nolongerranksamongthesevengreatpowers.
Evenso,onesquaremileofpurepowerstillremains:thefinancialdistrictcenteredinthehistoricCityof
London.BritainspositionasthecenterofglobalfinancedoesnotjustmeantherearejobsintheUKscapital
itmeansthatmanyforeigninvestorsparticularlyfromcountrieswherelegalprotectionsareweak.asin 2/6
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Russia,orwherelocaltalentlackstheskillsandexperienceofBritishmoneymanagersasintheMiddleEast
leavetheirmoneyunderBritishmanagement.ThisenablestheCityandthereforetheUKtohaveamuch
greaterglobalreachthanBritainsownwealthandpowercouldevergiveit.FromthesandsofArabiatothe
minesofAustraliatofinanceministriesindebtorcountriesaroundtheworld,theCityplaysamoresignificant
roleindecisionmakingthanmanyunderstand.TheUKisnotquiteaspostimperialasitsometimeslooks.
Britainsowneconomyisalsoanasset,growingatafasterratethanthatoftheU.S.,Japan,oritsmajor
Europeancompetitors.Britainalsoretainsimmenseculturalclout,andwearenotjusttalkingabouttheBard
andtheBeatles.Almostthewholeworldpassionatelyfollowssoccer,aBritishgamecodifiedandpopularized
bymenwhocouldhavewalkedrightoutofthedoorofDowntonAbbey.UKPremierLeagueteams,suchas
ManchesterUnited,havefansallovertheworld,nottomentionforeignoligarchslininguptobuythem.
BritainssuperbintelligenceservicesandSpecialForceshelpkeepBritaingreat.Beyondthat,thestillvibrant
specialrelationshipwiththeU.S.matters,withdiplomatsandintelligencestaffersinbothcountriesworking
handingloveonsomeextremelysensitiveissues.
SowhydoesntBritainhaveaplaceamongthesevengreatpowersofourtime?Blamemilitarycutbacks.For
allthequalityofitseliteunites,theBritishmilitarywouldstruggletorepeatitsFalklandIslandssuccessof
1982,muchlessitsroleinthe2003invasionofIraq.ButBritainsmilitarycutbacks,damagingastheyare,
arentnearlyascripplingasitsdiplomaticcollapse.ForhundredsofyearsBritishdiplomacyshapedEuropean
politicalrealitiesinthe21stcenturyAlbionsoncebrilliantlyperfidiousdiplomatshavelosttheirguile.Even
astheFrancoGermanententewithers,Britainsleadersseemunabletobuildanatural,evenobvious,coalition
withthecountriesofEasternandNorthernEuropeforEUreform,andtheoncesurefootedBritishhavebeen
unabletodevelopaEuropeanstrategyforthelasttwentyyears.
DeclineisachoicefortheUKtoday,notafate.Itspopulationandeconomyarebothgrowingatratesthat
wouldbringitclosertoGermanyinthelongrun,anditsentrepreneurialspirit,greatuniversities,andlong
recordofstablegovernmentarequalitiesthatotherscanonlyenvy.
YettheBritsseemmoreinterestedinpickingtheirsocietyapartthaninrenewingitsdynamism.TheScottish
drivetosecede,thefumblingapproachtotheEU,thefailuretodevelopaworkingimmigrationpolicy:noneof
theseseemlikethehallmarksofarisingstate.Britainisoneofahandfulofcountriesthatseembenton
throwingawayopportunitiesthatotherswouldkillfor.Butithasrecovereditsfootinginthepastitsfriends
musthopethatthiseverlessSceptredIslechangescourse.

3)France
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BritainandFrancearerivals,butthesedaystheyseemunitedindecline,andFrance,asmuchasBritain,is

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nowpunchingwellbelowitspotential.Francehasthe5thlargesteconomyintheworld.Ithasnukes,an
advancedarmy,anaircraftcarrier,andavetoontheUNSecurityCouncil.Whatitdoesnthaveisaplan.
Specifically,itdoesnthaveaplanfordealingwithGermanysrise.Franceoriginallyhopedthattheeuro
wouldlockaunitedGermanyintoamonetaryunionthatwouldfavorFrance.Thingsdidntworkoutthatway
GermanyhasadaptedtotheeuroandtodayitisFrancethatisconstrainedandhemmedinbythecurrencyit
oncesawasitsgreatestachievement.
TheeurorequiresdeepstructuralreformsthatFrenchsocietydoesnotwanttomake,butFrancehasbeen
unabletoforceGermanytoturntheeurointothekindofloosemonetarysystemthatwouldmakeiteasierfor
Francetocontinuewithbusinessasusual.NeitherNicholasSarkozynorFrancoisHollandehasbeenableto
makeAngelaMerkelbudgeonthequestionofEuropesmonetarydestinyneverhasFrancespowerand
prestigeintheEUbeenatsuchalowebb.

4)Turkey
GeographyhasalwaysbeenTurkeysbestfriend.AttheintersectionofEuropeandtheMiddleEast,Turkey
controlssomeoftheworldsmostvitaltraderoutes,includingRussiaslinktotheMediterraneanandthe
MiddleEast.GeographyboostsTurkishpowerinanotherwayitsitsatthecenterofaregionofenormous
importance,surroundedbycrisisriddenstates.
Syria,Iraq,Ukraine,Greece,Lebanon,Iran,Georgia:everyoneofthesecountriesfaceshugeproblems,and
everyoneofthemmatterstotheoutsideworld.Turkeyhasitsdomestictroubles,includingalongrunningwar
againstthePKKKurdishrebelsthatithasnotyetbeenabletoend,butbycontrastwithitsneighbors,Turkey
isanoasisofstabilityandprogress.
ThatgivesTurkeyclout.AmericacomescallingbecausetheU.S.needsTurkeysbases,cravesitsdiplomatic
cooperation,andwillwantitsmilitaryhelpifanythingisevertobedonetobringthewarinSyriatoanend
withoutleavingISISincontrol.TheEUandRussiabothwantTurkishtradeandTurkishcooperationIransees
Turkeyasapotentialweaklinkinthealliancesaroundit.
Turkeyhashaditsshareofsetbacks.ErdogansMuslimBrotherhoodallieshavetakenonehitafteranother.
TheSaudisaredoingtheirbesttoprytheQatarisoutofTurkeysembrace.Butnoneofthataffectsthe
foundationsofTurkeyscontinuingpower.BetweenGermanyandIndia,onlyIranisamatchforTurkeys
combinationofastrongstate,atechnologicallysophisticatedeconomy,andalarge,educatedandhardworking
population.RivalrybetweentheOttomanTurksandthePersianEmpireshapedtheMiddleEastforfour
hundredyearswhilePresidentErdoganassofarsignallyfailedtoputTurkeybackonthepathtoregional
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power,thegeographical,economicanddemographicfactsonthegroundensurethatanypowerwithvital4/6

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interestsintheMiddleEastneedstoconsultwiththeTurks.

5)Israel
Inchforinchandpoundforpound,nocountryintheworldmatchesIsraelsimpactoninternationalpolitics.
IsraeliprimeministerscanmakeorbreakanAmericanpresidentsday,bombnuclearreactorsinSyria,putthe
Iraniannuclearprogramfrontandcenterforthewholeinternationalcommunityandstilldrivetheworldto
distractionbyauthorizingahousingdevelopertobuildanapartmentcomplexonabarrenhillsidenear
Jerusalem.TheIsraeliintelligenceservices,includingShinBetandMossad,areamongthemosteffectivein
theworld,andtheexpeditionaryandspecialforceselementsofitsmilitaryamongthemostexperienced.
Aboveall,Israelmaintainsthestrongest,mosttechnicallyadvancedconventionalmilitaryforcesintheMiddle
East.
Whiledoingalloftheabove,Israelhasbuiltoneofthemostdynamichightechindustrialcomplexesinthe
world,discoveredhugeenergyfieldsinitsterritorialwaters,andbroughtitslargestArabneighborsintoan
uneasybutseriouscoalitionagainstIsraelsthreemostseriousregionalenemies:Hamas,Hezbollah,andthe
IslamicRepublicofIran.
ConventionalmediacoverageofIsraelsdiplomaticeffortsconsistentlyaccentuatesthenegative,butaclear
eyedlookattheJewishstatessituationrevealsamorecomplicatedpicture.IsraeliIndianrelationshavenever
beencloser,andtheirdefensecooperationwilldeepenastheirtradelinksgrow.BlackAfricaisincreasingly
Christian,andmanyofthoseChristiansareChristianZionistswhoseethemselvesinawaragainstjihaditerror.
VladimirPutinwantstostayclosetoJerusalem.TheEgyptianarmyhatesHamasatleastasmuchasthe
Israelisdo.JordanneedsIsraelmorethanever.TheascendantKurdsandtheJewshavelonghadwarm
relations.
Iranremainsamajorsecuritythreat,IsraelsrelationswiththeEUcontinuetodeteriorateandtheObama
administrationcannotstandtheNetanyahugovernment.ButIsraelhasbeeninhotwatersinceitproclaimedits
independencebackin1947duringallthattimeithasbeenbesetwithchallengesandthreatsand,sofar,its
powerhascontinuedtogrow.

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6)Brazil
In2014,LatinAmericawasanoasisofcalminatroubledworld.Thatisinlargepartduetothepowerof
Brazil,acountrywhosequietregionalleadershipmattersmorethanmanythink.
BrazildominatesSouthAmericaalmostascompletelyastheUnitedStatesdominatesthenorthernhalfofthe
NewWorld.BrazilsGDPisbiggerthanthatofeveryothernationinSouthAmericacombined.Itspopulation
isfourtimesthatofthenextlargestcountryitislargerinareathanthecontinentalUnitedStates.Oftheten
mostpopulouscitiesinSouthAmerica,sixareBrazilian.AndthoughBrazilhasnotbeentowarwitha
neighborinover140years(adiplomaticachievementinitself),noneofitsneighborswouldwanttocrossit
militarily.
Brazilspowerisbestdescribedasamoderatingpower:Brazilssteadyfocusonpeacefuleconomicgrowth
keepsLatinAmericarelativelycalm.Itsteadfastlyrefusestochooseeitherthelocoleftpoliticsoftheunhinged
BolivariansfoundincountrieslikeVenezuelaoraslavishobediencetoeveryeconomicfadthatsweepsthe
Washingtonpolicyelite.HighlevelsofproAmericanfeelinginpublicopinioncombinewithaleftleaning
politicalsystem(theWorkersPartyhaswonthelastfourpresidentialelectionsinarow)toproducea
governmentthatCaracas,HavanaandWashingtoncanallworkwithandmoreorlesstrust.
NoteveryoneinBrazilthinksthisisenough.ManyBrazilians(especiallymanyofthoseworkinginthehighly
professionalandwidelyadmiredForeignMinistry)wanttoseeBraziltakeitsplaceintheeliteranksofthe
greatpowers.ApermanentseatontheSecurityCouncil,alargerroleinAfrica,avoiceintheMiddleEast:
Braziliannationaliststhinkbig.Anditsregionalaccomplishmentsfallshortofthestandardssomeset:tothe
frustrationofmanyBrazilians.Mercosul,theLatinAmericantradebloc,hasneverevolvedintosomethinglike
theEuropeanUnion.NobodywasmoredisappointedthantheBrazilianswhentheBRIChypefadedaway.
Beingamoderatingpowerinaquietregionisnotthemostglamorousofglobalvocations,butBrazilissecure,
popular,andfreetoworkoutitsowndestinyonitsownterms.Inawildanddangerousworld,thatisnothing
tosneezeat.

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