CHAEYCER 13 : OPEFULTIONAL APPRAISAL

13.1

GENERAL

13.2

EXAMINING THE OPERATIONAL

13.3

THE TOOLS OF OPERATIONAL

13.4

THE USE OF CORDON ISOLATION TO EXAMINE

CONGESTED NETWORKS

13.5

JUNCTION APPRAISAL

13.6

PREPARATION OF TRAFFIC FIGURES FOR USE WITH

OTHER DEPARTMENTAL PUBLICATIONS

FEATURES OF A SCHEME
APPRAISAL

REFERENCES - CHAPTER 13

Traffic Appraisal Manual

Augus-t 1991

CHAPTER 13 : OPERATIONAL APPRAISAL

13.1

GENERAL

13.1.1 Operational
Appraisal is a detailed form of Traffic Appraisal which is needed
particularly
in urban areas. It has two main applications.
Firstly, during early stages
of building a traffic model it is necessary to examine model output to ensure that
results are reasonable.
Later on in a study, the operational
appraisal should highlight
areas where a traffic model (and COBA) is oversimplified
so that results from the
model can be qualified where appropriate.
13.1.2 Secondly,
the operational
appraisal should describe the local impact of a
scheme so that the strengths
and weaknesses of a proposal can be identified
(eg are
any junctions
likely to become overloaded
?I. This will often suggest beneficial
The
amendments
to the detailed
design such as ancillary
traffic
management.
appraisal will also identify areas where complementary
action will be needed by
statutory
and other bodies such as Local Authorities
or bus operators.
13.1.3 The first section of this chapter sets out a check-list
of operational
features
The second section
which may be relevant
in examining
a particular
scheme.
describes methods which will be of value in examining the model itself, as well as in
assisting understanding
of traffic behaviour.
The third and fourth sections concern
networks and junctions, the latter usually being the kernel of most traffic problems.
The final section describes
the preparation
of traffic
figures for use with other
Departmental
publications
and discusses some of the problems
inherent
at these
interfaces.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-1

August

1991

13.2

EXAMINING THE OPERATIONAL

FEATURES

OF A SCHEME

13.2.1 Most features requiring consideration

in operational
appraisal lie within the
Occasionally,
remote features such as signing or an estimate
vicinity of a scheme.
of increased loadings on unsuitable link roads will require consideration.
No checklist of features
requiring
examination
can be exhaustive
because the nature of
However the following
check-list
operational
appraisal
is its case dependence.
contains some common features for consideration
many of which can be examined
using the tools described later in 13.3 (a full list of references
relating to design is
given in DTp Circular 4/79, ref 1).
is this option, in its detailed layout, the most cost effective
Safety:
i)
by COBA?
which can be designed ? What are the accident costs estimated
Could small changes in layout and signing encourage
greater
volumes of
traffic to use roads with lower accident rates or pass through fewer junctions?
Can pedestrians
be further segregated
from traffic?
ii)
Network balance: for example, does the relief of one bottleneck
(which
is not part of a comprehensive
route improvement
programme)
cause longer
queues at the next bottleneck
thereby reducing the peak period economic
benefits calculated
by COBA? Do climbing lanes following a long stretch of
single carriageway
with restricted
overtaking
provide considerable
benefits
which are underestimated
by COBA?

h-

Pedestrians:
Will pedestrian
facilities be necessary that will alter the
iii)
attractiveness
of a scheme?
For example, a new pelican crossing on a new
dual carriageway
(thereby negating much benefit);
or a new footbridge
or
subway (with the associated
capital cost).
iv)
Interacting
Junctions:
Does the pattern of release of flow from one
junction affect another downstream ? (This can be a positive or a negative
effect; it can be positive particularly
when the downstream
junction is of the
major/minor
type and the minor road flow needs breaks in the major road
flow).

v)

Are there any restrictions

(eg height, weight, turning radii,
Access:
traffic management
policies) which prevent traffic from using the modelled
routes?
Should some accesses be closed for safety or capacity reasons?
Does
the scheme attract traffic down undesirable
routes to gain access to it? (eg
residential
areas, unsuitable country lanes, town centre etc).
Which junctions, if any, are likely to become overloaded?
vi)
Junctions:
(Junctions which are likely to become overloaded
should be identified
in the
traffic model).

Planning
vii)
options?

Traffic

Appraisal

Policies:

Manual

Does the scheme

13-3

close or assist

land development

August

1991

viii)
Enforcement:
Are there any traffic orders (clearways, banned turns,
traffic
signals, speed limits, etc) which are
parking, access restrictions,
essential to the viability of the scheme (or a staged opening), for which police
agreement
is required?
Maintenance:
What are the maintenance
implications?
What traffic
ix)
? Maintenance
considerations
are
costs will be incurred during maintenance
a major item in decisions on option viability and standards
of carriageways
and junction provision.
(As traffic continues to grow, and the age of the road
network increases, maintenance
considerations
are increasingly
important).

x)

Staged Onenings:
Does a temporary
terminal point, which may last
many years, have adequate capacity to cope?
Do any of the previous nine
points have relevance
to temporary
stages?
13.2.2 When carrying out operational
appraisal on new road schemes, it is important
to distinguish
between those operational
features which fundamentally
affect the
decision on the viability of a scheme (eg demolition of buildings to provide necessary
junction
capacity);
and those features
which are marginal
details that can be
amended at low cost after a scheme has settled in (eg traffic signal settings).

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-4

August

1991

13.3

THE TOOLS OF OPERATIONAL

APPRAISAL

13.3.1 There is a range of diagnostic quantities

which can be used in appraising the
Nearly all can be extracted
from a traffic model and are of
impact of a scheme.
assistance
in understanding,
and explaining
to others (see Chapter
151, what a
They are also of value in optimising
detailed
particular
scheme would achieve.
aspects of particular solutions but, when a choice between alternative
solutions is to
be made, they must take second place to the formal economic
and environmental
appraisals.
13.32 Operational
appraisal is by its nature scheme dependent and the responsibility
The following items are amongst those of value:
of local practitioners.
J ournev Times:
The estimated
journey time for a vehicle using the
i)
whole of a new route as against the old. For large schemes this can be done
for major sub routes. Figure 13.1 shows how a map can be prepared in critical
sections of a network showing speeds.
Maior Volumes:
Where a scheme is on a route between two major
ii)
towns, the volume of traffic between those two towns can be shown. Desire
Line diagrams (figure 13.2) showing the origins and destinations
of major flows
can be plotted (program RDSELC):
best results are obtained by grouping
traffic into no more than 20 sectors containing zones of homogeneous
traffic
interest.
Select link plots (figure 13.3) as produced by programs RDSELC and
iii)
RDPLOT, showing the traffic
contribution
to the network of traffic on a
chosen link (usually a major scheme link or a link of interest such as a High
Street.)
Separate vehicle classes (eg commercial
vehicles) or purpose types
can be examined if appropriate.
Estimated
loadinps
that major
links may
iv)
economic life can be plotted as in Figure 13.4. This
to illustrate
the uncertain
opening of a neighbouring
base need not be AADT: it could, for example, be a

experience
over their
figure can be extended
link (Figure 13.5). The
COBA flow group.

Traffic Routes:
The routes to certain selected
origins (Figure 13.6)
v)
used by the model in assignment
can be plotted
(programs
RDTREE and
RDPLOT).
Centres of major towns, terminal points of routes, or potential
sites of major interchanges
are commonly chosen.
Junctions:
vi)
A broad estimate
of the capacity
of any junctions
in the
vicinity
of the scheme
which may become
overloaded.
(Junctions
are
discussed in 13.5).
vii)
Economic Diagnostics:
Use of NETBEN AND MATBEN (see Chapter
14) to illustrate
which links, and which movements
through the network are
gaining respectively
benefits and disbenef its.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-5

August

1991

Two loaded networks

viii) Network Comparisons:
something) can be compared and plotted such that
change by more than a specified amount can
RDCOMP, RDFLOW and RDPLOT). This is a very
network models.

Traf fit Appraisal Manual

13-6

(eg do minimum and do

all links whose volumes
be identified (programs
powerful tool for larger

August 1991

FIG

JOURNEY

13-l

TIME

MAP

MEAN
(IN

BOTH

JOURNEY

SPEEDS

DIRECTIONS

BETWEEN

SECTION

Less

than

10-12

LIMITS)

8 mph

mph

12-16mp

16-20m

p h

L---_-j

Mc?re than

0
c h_

20

m p h

Sectton

limit

Journey
II-I direct

tame on sectlon
IOn shown ( m mmutes

Not to Scale

Traffic

Appraisal Manual

13-7

August 1991

Traffic Appraisal

Manual

13-8

August 1991

FIG.
SCHEME
lOAD

AND

CLASSIFICATION

SECTION:
MAIN

M999

-URBAN

BARNBURY-

13.5
MIDDLEWAYfINCL

STANDARD:
NO

02

ALL

A777

PURPOSE

OPTION)

OPENING
WITH

AT GRADE

HARDSHOULDERS

32000.

HC

31000

r
. /
.
/

30000
29000
28000
27000

2bOOO
35000

~~~_-_____-----------

23000
HrI

Urlcertai.

?:I000
22000
2 1000
20000
19000
I8000
17000
16000

nn

JIJNCTION!

openlncj

LOW

BROOKFIELD

CROFTDOWN

\CARCH wAYo

KENTISH

Traffic

Appraisal Manual

13-10

August 1991

~_.

.-.. ~

NETWORK

SELECT

LINK

PLOT

FIGURE 13.3

SW ESTATE

BROOKFIELD

-96

758

Traffic

Appraisal Manual

13-11

August 199 1

FIG. 13.4
SCHEME
ROAD

AND

CLASSIFICATION

SECTION:

M999

BARNBURY

: MAIN - URBAN

- M I DDLEWAY

STANDARD

(NO

ASSOCIATED

02 ALL PURPOSE
WITH
NO HARDSHOULDERS

32000

A7771
AT GRADE

JUNCTIONS.

31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
2 2000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
l!

1980

1985

1990

1995
YEAR

2000

2005

2010

13.4

THE USE OF CORDON ISOLATION TO EXAMINE CONGESTED NETWORKS

13.4.1 In all traffic models, except the very smallest of less than about 30 zones, the
use of cordon isolation software to extract a sub-network
from the model being used
can provide a powerful tool for the appraisal of difficult
areas such as sections of
congested network.
A cordon matrix can be extracted
in ROADWAY using RDSELC.
A cordon network extraction
program may be available in 1981.
13.4.2 The cordon isolation should be as small as is feasible to surround the problem
area.
Small models with less than 30 zones or 60 links are highly intelligible
and
controllable
for detailed operational
appraisals and embrace all the major influence
of the usual features
under examination
(eg one or two bottlenecks;
interacting
junctions;
a new land use development;
terminal arrangements
of a new road) which
any model is capable of discerning.
This is because traffic quickly, but not instantly,
disperses over the network (see Fig 13.7) and the difference
in delays to traffic at
a junction approach at varying traffic loadings is very small providing the junction
If a junction approach is working near
approach is working a little below capacity.
capacity and above, the rate of change of delay with flow is very fast, and so very
small changes in flow at junctions well remote from the influence of the scheme can
show up as major effects in a traffic model. In reality many minor adjustments
take
place in traffic
demand (ref 2) which remove
the major operational
problems
predicted
by traffic models at small flow changes (these small changes in traffic
demand do of course carry associated
costs to traffic).
The analysis of congested
networks is described in the TRAFFICQ user manual (see Appendix 13.1).
13.4.3 The time periods for use in such appraisals
were discussed
in 5.7.
Any
factored daily matrix (see also 6.10) which will place the design under feasible peak
loadings of the type of interest in the area of interest will be suitable.
(There is an
analogy here with the load testing of structures).
Factoring
to make the design
respond under directional
loadings may be injected if required.
For small matrices,
ad hoc methods of factoring the daily matrix will be sufficient:
for example, a factor
based on the ratio of peak period flow in the direction being considered
to the daily
flow on cordon crossing points.
13.4.4 The following two methods are among the approaches
suitable
for larger
matrices.
In the first, a peak period matrix may be built at, or compressed
to, a very
coarse sector level (perhaps 5 sectors of homogeneous
traffic interest) and be divided
by the daily matrix compressed
to the same level: this then gives a directional
peak
to daily factor for each sector. Each cell in the uncompressed
daily matrix can then
be factored
by the appropriate
sector factor (eg there will be 25 factors for a 5
sector system).
This coarse sectoring
process overcomes
peak period sampling
problems because the factors are drawn from a data base which contains sufficient
interviews
during the peak period to derive a directional
relationship
with the daily
matrix.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-13

August

1991

DISPERSAL

OF TRAFFIC

A ROAD TERMINAL

ONTO

ASSUMING

A LOCAL
EQUAL

NETWORK

TURNING

A3Q

FROM

MOVEMENTS

13.4.5 A second method which can be adopted, which is more convenient

to apply to
synthetic
models than to observed data models, is to take slices of daily purpose
matrices and assemble these into a peak period matrix. In this method, the data base
is examined to establish the percentage
and direction of trips from each purpose in
the time period of interest (and this is sometimes
only done for home based journey
to work trips). For example, in the morning peak period a substantial
percentage
of
the home based journey to work trips will take place, travelling
to work.
The
morning peak matrix might therefore
be of the form:
am peak

where

and
This method

ii)
iii)
iv)

al % G/A journey

bl % G/A home
other

. . . . .

G/A

= G/A transposed

al

a2

.>

based

other

peak period

sampling

+ b2% G/AT

to work

home

based

matrix

problems.

of model to be used once a cordon

wide (see also 5.3):

Manual or Semi-Automatic
Methods.
The Cordon Matrix and Cordon Network
TRAFFICQ.
CONTFZAM.

Manual or Semi-Automatic
L

to work + a*% G/AT journey

= generation/attraction

G/AT

also overcomes

13.4.6 The choice

extracted
is quite

i)

matrix

and network

has been

Model.

Methods

13.4.7 Manual assignment,

or the use of the diversion curve in 9.6 together
with
calculations
of junction delays based on the calculations
described
in the COBA
Manual Section 6.

The Cordon

Matrix

and Cordon

Network

Model

13.4.8 This model will generally require minor refitting.

It may be necessary
to
improve the level of model detail within the cordon by means of increased zone and
network definition
and the use of more complex assignment
procedures
(ie capacity
restraint,
multi-routeing).
If Burrell multi-routing
is used, a substantial
number of
trees per origin (perhaps up to 100) may be needed with a small number of zones (eg
30) to achieve stability (see 9.5).

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-15

August

1991

Speed-flow
curves can have substantial
shortcomings
in capacity restraint
at this
level of detail: because they are link based, the sum of flows on links entering
a
junction estimated
by the model may easily exceed finite junction capacities.
This
can be partially overcome by the use of notional links describing junction delays at
critical
junctions:
delays are then calculated
at each iteration
considering
each
Several
commercially
available
transportation
suites
do
this
junction as a whole.
mechanically
but for small networks
manual
intervention
to undertake
these
calculations
can speed up convergence
and be profitable in interpreting
the behaviour
of the network.
Manual intervention
becomes too time-consuming
for networks with
greater than about five critical junctions.

TWFICQ
13.4.9 TRAFFICQ (ref 3) was outlined in section 5.5. TRAFFICQ operates
at the
most detailed
level of techniques
widely used in the UK, by following individual
vehicles through the network and registering
their progress through queues; waiting
for traffic signals to turn green; waiting for gaps to execute right turns; and so on.
For a given traffic demand in a small congested network, TRAFFICQ is suitable for
examination
of:
i)

a new road;

ii)

road widenings

iii)

change

in form of junction

iv)

change

in location

v)

introduction

vi)
the effect
industrial estate,

or flaring

of junction
control

of a pedestrian

of bus lanes, banned

of changed
superstore,

approaches

or exits;

or layout;
facility;
turns,

traffic demand
or car park.

one-way

systems

or behaviour

etc;

- say from a new

13.4.10
One of the virtues of using TRAFFICQ for small networks is that whilst
all route choice options (including multi-routeing)
are open, a full route choice model
does not have to be fitted because manual assignment
is used (diversion curves, see
9.6, or other methods external to the program can of course be used): this makes for
very fast appraisal.
However this property ceases to be a virtue on networks much
larger than 30-50 links. The detail output by TRAFFICQ in networks over the 50 link
size is also too large to be examined critically.
13.4.11
TRAFFICQ
is supported
on behalf of the Department
through the
arrangements
described
in Appendix 13.1. A comprehensive
user and applications
manual is available.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-16

August

1991

CONTRAM
CONTRAM which was also outlined in 5.5, is a dynamic traffic model
134.12
developed by TRRL (ref 4) which embraces route choice as an important
feature of
The only extension in data requirements
over its conventional
steady
the program.
state capacity restraint
counterparts
is the need to provide:
i)

details

of junctions;

ii)
origin and destination
from the origin.

and
movements

with associated

times

of departure

For operational
appraisal this associated time of departure
can either be measured,
or constructed
using a flow profile, or simply assumed to be constant over the time
period being considered.
An advantage
of CONTRAM is that the
13.4.13
calibration
and validation tests using purposively
collected
solely on Case Law generally used in traffic models.

program
has undergone
data rather than relying

13.4.14
In one study CONTRAM
during maintenance
operations.

has been used to investigate

Traffic

13-17

Appraisal

Manual

traffic

delays

August

1991

13.5

\-

JUNCTION APPRAISAL

General
13.5.1 Junctions,
of whatever type, are the kernel of most operational
problems
There
are
4
major
types
of
junction:
almost exclusively
so in urban areas.

Similar

i)

grade separation;

ii)

traf fit signals;

iii)

roundabouts;

iv)

major/minor

problems

and
junctions

arise at the discontinuities:

i)

climbing

ii)

pedestrian

iii)

level crossings;

and at the system

aim at re-routeing

and

lanes and lane drops;

crossings

(zebra

and pelican);

solutions such as gyrator&s,

right turning traffic.

G-turns

and Q-turns

which generally

13.5.2 Well-chosen and well-designed

junctions can provide very great benefits at low
cost. For example, if just one extra lane can be provided at an over-saturated
traffic
signal approach, discharging for only 30 seconds per minute, this can remove queuing
vehicles from the approach at a typical rate of 5 kilometres
of queue per hour.
13.5.3 The major
follows:

operational

features

of the junction

types

can be summarised

as

Grade Senaration:
varies in scale from a simple half diamond up to a
i)
fully free flowing interchange
(eg Almondsbury M4/M5); effective
in reducing
accidents
and delays;
can be intrusive
with large land take and cause
severance;
construction
can cause considerable
disruption,
and the diversion
of statutory
undertakers
equipment in urban areas can be an insurmountable
problem;
provision for pedestrians
may involve them in considerable
detours.
Traffic Signals:
mainly applicable to existing urban junctions where
ii)
other possible solutions would involve property
demolition;
cope well with
heavy flows with small turning movements;
more delay incurred outside peak
hours than with other junction types; not as safe as roundabouts,
particularly
on high speed roads;
maintenance
can be a problem but the facility
for
varying timings gives operational
flexibility;
can be useful in area control
policies as junctions can be linked; adaption for pedestrians
fairly easy.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-19

August

1991

Roundabouts:
vary in size but provide a good solution for moderate
to
iii)
high flows in both urban and rural situations;
especially
good in suburban
areas and where heavy turning movements
occur;
safest form of at grade
in rural areas deflection
of through
vehicle
paths normally
junction;
determine
the size as opposed to flow considerations;
in urban areas heavy
goods vehicle characteristics
can determine minimum size; all through-traffic
can
cause
problems
when associated
with linked urban traffic
delayed;
signals;
may need complementary
pedestrian
facilities.
the most common form of junction;
iv)
Maior/minor
nrioritv junctions:
not as safe as traffic
signals or
suitable
for low to moderate
flows;
there are three standard types - simple T, ghost islands and
roundabouts;
single lane dualling; on single carriageways,
ghost islands and lane separation
can reduce overtaking opportunities;
ghost islands in the mouth of the minor
road and physical and ghost islands on the major road decrease
accidents;
main road through traffic is not delayed.

v)

Hybrids and others: used only to overcome specific

be difficult to sign and can cause access problems.

Cauacitv

site problems;

can

and Delay

13.5.4 Any formula for assessing delay is only as good as the information
on capacity
and traffic flows fed into it. Very small changes in either when a junction approach
is operating
near or above capacity
will have substantial
impact on results.
A
junction approach has three identifiable
states of operation:

i)

under canacitv
(the steady state condition where the arrival of traffic
no impact on traffic arriving in subsequent
intervals);

during one interval

ii)
around cauacitv
(the arrival rates of traffic during some, but not all, intervals
period is greater than the capacity of the junction);
and

in a larger time

iii)
over canacitv
(the arrival rate of traffic
is greater
than
approach and the queue is growing steadily).

of the

the

capacity

13.5.5 The following data is required to operate the time dependent

can evaluate
all three of the states in 13.5.4 above:

Traffic

has

i)

the geometry

ii)

the arrival

iii)

the capacity

iv)

the queue at each junction

Appraisal

Manual

junction

formulae

that

of the junction;
flow during

an interval

at each junction

approach

approach

13-20

at each junction

approach;

for the interval;

at the start

of the interval;

and

August

1991

VI

the nature of arrivals

arrivals, regular departures).

the junction

(eg random

13.5.6 A version of these time dependent

formulae is now a component
following programs (see also section 6 of COBAS Manual):

part of the

i)

COBA

ii)

ARCADY

iii)

PICADY

iv)

MIDAS

and departures

from

The formulae
are applied in two forms, high definition
or low definition,
Strategic
appraisals
such as COBA cannot
depending
on the type of appraisal.
realistically
estimate
detailed 5-minute by 5-minute flows for new roads over 30
years: in these cases the formulae are applied in low definition using a block time
based on average surveyed profiles to allow representation
of the build up and decay
of traffic.
13.5.7 ARCADY (refs 5 and 6) and PICADY (ref 6) are programs requiring input in
short time intervals
which output queue lengths and average delays over these
intervals: ARCADY is concerned with isolated roundabouts and PICADY with isolated
major/minor
junctions.
Both these programs are powerful tools for understanding
how junctions
operate
and therefore
for both improving
existing
junctions
and
allowing improved advice to be issued on new designs.
Because of the uncertainty
of forecast future year turning movements
at new junctions, they cannot be directly
applied in these cases without
careful
formulation
of the design problem
(see
13.5.10).
13.5.8 MIDAS (ref 6) allows an independent
low definition
economic
appraisal of
junction types and is more flexible than the junction economic appraisal included in
COBAS.
It does not, however, consider all the factors necessary
to allow a full
assessment
of junction choice.
13.5.9 Section
more detail.

Estimation

6 of the COBA manual

of flows at junctions

describes

from a Traffic

calculation

of delays

at junctions

in

Model

13.5.10
Traffic models cannot, in general, directly provide reliable estimates
of the forecast year peak period turning movements
which may be required in design
publications.
The traffic model, inan area with fully modelled
movements,
will
usually be adequate to estimate
the following (in descending
order of accuracy) for
the high and low growth estimates:

i)

Traffic

the sum of the approach

Appraisal

Manual

flows to the junction

13-21

in AADT;

August

1991

the two way link flow on each

ii)
AADT; and

of the significant

junction

arms

in

the balance of the turning movements

at the junction.
For example,
iii)
for a three arm major/minor
junction, considering
the minor arm, either
a.

all movements

b.

left in, right

C.

left out, right

in and out equal;

out dominant;

or

or

in dominant.

It is therefore
recommended
that the turning movements
used for
13.5.11
junction design are not those output directly from the traffic model but those of the
approach flows apportioned
to reflect dominance
and symmetry
(unless there are
good reasons for non-symmetrical
flows) factored
to the peak values required for
design (see section
13.6).
For example,
in iii)b above, having established
the
dominance,
for design purposes the minor arm flow might be apportioned
66% to the
right turning movement.
Similarly, the apportionment
for iii)c above might be 33%
of the minor arm flow to the right turning movement.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-Z

August

1991

13.6

PREPARATION
OF TRAFFIC
FIGURES
DEZPARTMENTAL PUBLICATIONS

FOR

USE

WITH

OTHER

General
13.6.1 The existing range of Departmental
publications
for use in design which
require estimates
of traffic volumes are given in ref 1. These publications
cover:
- economic
- calculation

appraisal
of road traffic

- road pavement
- geometric

noise

design

design.

In general, these publications

have evolved using flow definitions
that could be
measured
at the present day (eg highest flow for any specific hour of the week
averaged over any consecutive
13 weeks during the busiest period in the year). The
definitions
of flow, and those of vehicle class, also vary between the publications.
The forecast
flows of traffic,
however, which traffic engineers
can estimate,
are
based on parameters
which are in the main daily or annually based (eg national road
The publications,
many of which are due for replacement
for
traffic
forecasts).
other reasons, are to be systematically
revised as convenient
to be consistent
with
traffic forecasting
methods.
This section discusses the flow estimates
required from
the traffic appraisal by these publications.
13.6.2 There are two general points to be made. Firstly, the unit of flow with which
all traffic appraisals can sensibly end is 24 hour Annual Average Daily Traffic and
this unit will be adopted by the revised design publications
which use forecast flows.
Peak hourly flows can only usually be obtained by factoring (see 5.7). (Appendix D14
contains factors to convert link flows after assignment from the base of a trip matrix
to 24 hour AADT; see also 6.10 and 8.1). The calculation
of 24 hour AADT will
depend on which of 3 road type classifications
is given to a link as discussed in 6.10.
13.6.3 Secondly, a rigid approach to major investment
decisions, such as the choice
of road type, can lead to sub-optimal
designs because it takes no account of factors
which may be specific to a particular
scheme, ie construction
costs, environmental
impact,
traffic
benefits,
accident
reductions,
delay costs
to traffic
during
maintenance,
plans for the future, and so on. Departmental
publications
such as
Departmental
Standard TD 9/81 on Highway Link Design have made clear both the
importance
of a flexible approach and the role of economic
appraisal, but in some
instances the full dimensions of a choice have been insufficiently
examined and too
much reliance
has been placed on tables and figures
relating
to operational
characteristics.
Clearly, overall value for money, taking into account all the above
factors, must be the determining
factor.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-23

August

1991

Economic

ADDraisal

13.6.4 The COBAS and QUADRO manuals are sister publications

to this manual and,
as far as is possible, recommendations,
definitions,
procedures,
factors and data are
consistent
between the three manuals.
13.6.5 Attention

has been paid to making

i)

road classification;

ii)

count

iii)

forecasting

iv)

vehicle

VI

speed-flow

vi)

flow groups.

conversion

the following

compatible:

factors;

parameters;

class definition;
geometry

relationships;

It is recommended
that those commencing
COBAS and TAM wherever possible.

and

new studies

adopt the same standards

13.6.6 Interface
programs from ROADWAY have been produced to pass input
directly into COBA (see 14.2). COBAS accepts directly the following flows:

files

12 hour weekday flows (0700-1900)

period models
are recommended
models);

in any month (12 hour interviewing

in TAM for new observed-data

16 hour weekday

hours) in any month;

flows (0600-2200

AAHT (Annual Average

Environmental

as

and

Hourly Traffic).

ADDraiSd

13.6.7 Traffic
figures
are needed as a basis for the assessment
of the main
In all cases high growth figures should
components
of an environmental
appraisal.
be used. The simplest areas are those of Community Severance and Visual Intrusion.
Here the highest AADF during the 15 years after opening should be used. For Air
Pollution and Driver Stress the applicable figure is the annual average peak hour flow
in the same period coupled with the speeds and % HGVs relevant
to those flows.
Similar information
is needed for noise calculations
except that the flows should be
18 hour AAWF in the worst month of the worst year.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-24

August

1991

Road Pavement

Desipn

13.6.8 Technical Memorandum

H6/78 is the current Departmental
publication
which
updates Road Note 29 (third edition) on pavement
design.
The traffic estimate
required in the memorandum
is the cumulative
number of million standard axles (msa)
that will pass over a pavement
during its design life. Appendices
A, B and C of
H6/78 contain a worked example of msa calculation.
The 24 hour average daily
traffic should be taken to be AADT and commercial
vehicles to be those vehicles
greater than 30 cwt (1.5 tonnes) unladen weight.

Geometric

Design

13.6.9 Most of the geometric

design publications
use definitions
of peak hour flow.
However, peak hour flow forecasts
using the centrally
available data and forecast
parameters
can only be achieved for future years by factoring from daily estimates.
Factors have been prepared using the Departments
Traffic Flow Monitoring sites,
grouped to the road classification
system shared by TAM and COBAS, to allow 12
hour flows, AAWT and AADT to be factored
to the 30th, 50th, 100th and 200th
highest hour of flow in a year. This has also been done for the peak hourly demand
as defined in Technical Memoranda H6/74, H9/76, Hl8/75 and Hl2/76.
These factors
(contained
in Appendix D14 with their associated
coefficients
of variation)
can be
used to interpret
the operational
information
contained
in memoranda
which refer
to peak hourly flows.
13.6.10
Recent
work (ref 7) has, however,
assisted
understanding
accuracy
and value of peak hour flow estimates
obtained
from daily
measurements
at the present day. In particular:

of the
traffic

the peak hour/daily flow ratio (PDR) has been found not sufficiently
i)
vary between sites to be of the value previously thought;

to

ii)
factors deriving the 30th highest hourly flow (not dissimilar from peak
hourly demand) from a perfectly known annual flow embrace a 95% confidence
interval from the 10th to the 150th highest hour; and
iii)
the definition
difficult to estimate,
highest hour.

of peak hourly demand,

does not have superior

which has been found in practice

qualities of stability over a 30th

Emphasis is now placed by the Department

on 24 hour AADT (for example, as in the
Design Standards of Highway Link Design - TD9/81) so that the basic traffic unit for
the economic
appraisal,
traffic
appraisal,
and operational
appraisal
become
consistent.

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-25

August

1991

Traffic Signals
The criteria for traffic signals at junctions are described in Circular
13.6.11
Roads 5/73 and technical memorandum H1/73. The flow unit used is the four busiest
hours in a day. Traffic signals can however be reset after installation based on
observation and estimates of future volumes for setting signals is therefore not
critical.
The criteria for signal installation are not solely a matter of estimating
future traffic volumes but where these are important, the factors converting 24 hour
AADT to the second highest flow group in COBA may be of value.

Traffic Appraisal

Manual

13-26

August 1991

REFERENCES-CHAPTER13

1.

DTp Highways and Bridges Departmental

Standards
and Advice
Technical memoranda
- 1983 Numerical Index, May 1981.

Notes

2.

Dawson J A L: Comprehensive
Traffic Management
in York: the Monitoring
and Modelling, Traffic Engineering
and Control, October 1979.

3.

Logie D M W: TRAFFICQ:
A Comprehensive
Model for Traffic
Schemes, Traf fit Engineering
and Control, November 1979.

4.

Leonard
D R, Tough J B and
Assignment
Model for Predicting
TRRL LR841, 1978.

5.

Advice Note on The Effect of Entry-Circulation

Flow Based Capacity Methods
of Roundabout Selection and Design; also New Visibility Criteria, Department
of Transport,
RLT Directorate,
May 1981.

6.

User Manual for Junction Appraisal Programs ARCADY, PICADY and MIDAS,
Department
of Transport,
Highway Engineering
Computer
Branch, 1981.

7.

Machin H A: Design Parameters

for Rural
(unpublished),
STG Division, DTp, 1977.

Management

Baguley P C:
CONTRAM:
A Traffic
Flows and Queues During Peak Periods,

Traffic

Appraisal

Manual

13-27

Roads

and their

Estimation

August

1991