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The FEMA P-58 Methodology

and the
Seismic Performance
Prediction Program (SP3)
Curt Haselton and Jack Baker

Overview of FEMA P-58

P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year

FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).
P-58 is an alternative to experience-based or judgment-based
methods (e.g. proprietary software, HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).
P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (cause + effect).
ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to further
advance the methodology, implementation, ease of use.
The U.S. Resiliency Council is currently creating
a P-58-based rating system.
FEMA P-58 Output Results:

Losses [$]

Fatalities & injuries

Repair time & red tagging

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

Damage Prediction

Contents (str. and non-str.)

Fragility curves

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

Damage Prediction

Contents (str. and non-str.)

Fragility curves

Loss Estimation (loss curves)

and other consequences

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

Damage Prediction

Contents (str. and non-str.)

Fragility curves

Loss Estimation (loss curves)

and other consequences

Monte Carlo
Simulation used
(roll dice thousands of
times).
Each dice roll gives a
single observation of
losses and other
consequences.

Full set of dice rolls

provides solid statistical
information on
performance
(e.g. 10,000 at 12 levels =
120,000 runs).

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FEMA P-58: Output Example

Sample Results (12-story RC frame):

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FEMA P-58 Benefits

Objective process based on data and research.

Quantitative performance information:

Solid statistical basis.

Sensitive enough to inform design decisions (cause + effect).

Tools to communicate with owners.

Dig as deep as you like.

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FEMA P-58: Perceived Difficulty

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

Damage Prediction

Contents (str. and non-str.)

Fragility curves

Loss Estimation (loss curves)

and other consequences

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I need to hire a
geotech to do
this?!?!
I need to do a
responsehistory
analysis?!?!
I need to count and
enter every foot of
partition wall and
other contents?!?!

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FEMA P-58: Perceived Difficulty

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The fact is that it may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58

as some currently perceive it to be.
WHAT IF.???
What if design engineers could provide high performance
earthquake simulation predictions to their clients using the P-58
methodology in a matter of hours rather than days?

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The Need

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We have seen that a large barrier to widespread FEMA P-58

adoption is related to software and ease-of-use (high cost of
entry).
ATC/FEMA have created a great methodology but are not in
the business of maintaining software.
Need: For our profession to move forward with FEMA P-58
methods, an enabling commercial software needs to be
created and maintained.

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SP3 Version 2.0 Released June 2015

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Overview of SP3 Implementation

Hazard and Ground Motions

Soil and hazard curve

Ground motions (if needed)

Structural Responses

Option #1: Response-history

Option #2: Simplified method

Damage Prediction

Contents (str. and non-str.)

Fragility curves

Loss Estimation (loss curves)

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Soil and hazard curves

embedded.
Simplified method
embedded.
Structural and nonstructural contents
estimates and prepopulated.

Two-level structure:
(1) Simple (prelim. design, building rating, PML)
(2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).
Streamlined numerics, scalable web deployment.

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SP3 Version 2.0

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SP3 Version 2.0 Features

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SP3 Features:
Method: FEMA P-58 damage and loss methodology implementation.
Automation: Automated look-up of soil and hazard data based on project address.
Automation: Integrated & simplified structural analysis method, providing nearinstant predictions of structural response.
Automation: Pre-populated non-structural building contents using SP3 prepopulation algorithm (no need to manually input building contents).
Flexibility: The ability to define and input any demand parameter or component the
user can create makes SP3 a powerful modeler.
Diversity: SP3 uses other methodologies, like FEMA 154, REDi, and the USRC rating
system, along with P-58 to enhance seismic predictions.

Efficiency Improved numerical methods enabling hundreds of thousands of damage

simulations in minutes.
Efficiency Software that runs in the cloud for fast computation and infinite
scalability.
Results Access Reporting tools, enabling users to quickly identify building features
leading to earthquake damage.

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Feedback Welcomed

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Our purpose in creating SP3 is to support adoption of FEMA

P-58 methods, so please let us know how we can best help in
this process.
We are still in active development, so please:

Let us know how we can tailor our plans to most

effectively serve the engineering profession.

Give us any other feedback/ideas (we are all ears!).

E-mail: support@hbrisk.com
Office: (530) 531-0295
Websites: www.hbrisk.com

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