© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.

com
 We are a Technology firm focused on being a Business Intelligence & Analytics partner of choice for
Global Corporations
We use advanced analytics tools customized to meet industry specific requirements.

Our approach
We understand the business, the business user requirements and then provide the
appropriate and cost effective solution.

Our solution highlights

•Right B.I solution
•Rapid deployment for quick wins
•User friendly solutions to improve end user product utilization
•Lower TCO to ensure higher ROI

ABIBA Management
Promoter team have several decades of experience globally in companies in Europe, North America,
Asia and Africa
Senior management team is highly qualified with experience in management and technology

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • About ABIBA Systems
• ABIBA – Offerings
• Analytics - Overview
• Churn Prediction Solution
• Market Study of Data mining Tools
• Solution comparison
• Why ABIBA analytics?
• Future Roadmap

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • We are a Technology firm focused on being a Business Intelligence partner of choice for Global
Corporations
• We use advanced analytics tools customized to meet industry specific requirements.

Our approach
We understand the business, the business user requirements and then provide the
appropriate and cost effective solution.

Our solution highlights

• Right B.I solution
• Rapid deployment for quick wins
• User friendly solutions to improve end user product utilization
• Lower TCO to ensure higher ROI

ABIBA Management
• Promoter team have several decades of experience globally in companies in Europe, North
America, Asia and Africa
• Senior management team is highly qualified with experience in management and technology

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Solutions and Services -
Products BI Consulting:
3DM Approach

BI Strategy, Data mart and

TeleView TM Scoping and Enterprise Data
Selection Warehouse

Manufacturing BI System design/ Data Sourcing -

intelligence architecture ELT/ETL/EAI

Technical and
Data Mining and
Champion business user
analytics
training

BI System
performance
TIMS Data Management
analysis and
improvement

Process
Process intelligence improvement &
workflow solutions

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Analytics is the science of examining business data to identify historic
trends and patterns, predict potential trends and to analyze the effects of
certain decisions or events.

• The goal of analytics is to improve the quality of decision making in

business by gaining in-depth knowledge of past, current and future
performance.

Type of Analytics :
• Descriptive Analytics: It describes the distribution of the data as well
as cluster the data into more homogeneous groups
• Predictive Analytics: Predictive Analytics tries to predict the value of
one or more responses in a data set

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Sales & Operations & Customer
Finance
Marketing Network Services

Customer Credit Risk Supply chain Customer

Acquisition Management Optimization Lifetime Value

Network
Churn Revenue Loyalty
capacity
Modeling optimisation management
forecasting

Product &
Campaign Cost
segment QoS analytics
effectiveness Simulation
profitability

Sales
forecasting

Market Mix
Modeling

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Segmentation and profiling
•Identify your profitable segments and
their behavior
•Estimate the life time value of your
customer segments for better
marketing
Risk models
•Identify the most risky customer
segments and list at-risk customers
• Identify the customers who are
going to default or delay the payment
© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com
Response models
•Identify the most sensitive customers
for cross selling/up selling
• Identify customers likely to respond to
promotional offers
Churn Prediction
• Predict the potential churn –individual
subscriber and segment level.
• For both postpaid and prepaid
Forecasting
Forecast Sales, Revenue, Churn, Default
and other critical attributes based on
historic performance.
 • Improve Sales
• Identify segments and launch targeted acquisition campaigns
• Improve the forecasting of acquisitions and plan support activities
• Increased ROI
• Increased Customer service and satisfaction
• Increase customer retention
• Develop effective loyalty programs to improve stickiness
• To analyse QoS across different segments
• Improved effectiveness of marketing activities
• Product development based on customer segmentation
• To design campaigns considering the responses of earlier campaigns
• Risk management
• To determine risk profile of customers and predict potential defaulters
• To avoid acquiring specific segments of customers who are more risky
• Enables better decision making

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 The division of a market into different homogeneous groups of consumers is
known as market segmentation.

Rather than offer the same marketing mix to vastly different customers,
market segmentation makes it possible for firms to tailor the marketing mix
for specific target markets, thus better satisfying customer needs.

1. Identify bases for segmenting the market.

2. Develop segment profiles.
3. Develop measure of segment attractiveness.

MARKET 1 MARKET 2

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Decision tree helps in grouping customers having similar features.
Targeted and similar action can be taken for subscribers in a group/ cluster.
E.G – Offering a particular service/ product to a group

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Response Modeling is a proven methodology to
• Identify a set of existing customers or prospects who are more likely to
respond to events.
• These events could be –
• Response to Up-sell
• Response to Cross sell
• Response to promotions

Response modeling improves the effectiveness of direct marketing efforts.

Response modeling is performed by –
• Identifying business objectives
• Defining key attributes required for the particular solution
• Build a response model
• Provide reports and analysis for business users

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 It is not enough to segment and analyse historic and current churns.
Operators should be able to predict churn – i.e. identify the customers likely to leave
in the near future.

Churn in scope
• Postpaid and prepaid
• Retail and Enterprise customers
• Voluntary and involuntary churn (For postpaid)
• All products and services
• All regions
• All modes of Sales Channel
The different modules of Churn prediction are

Segment level Churn prediction Customer level Churn prediction

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 The modeling process is based on CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process
for Data Mining). It is the industry standard methodology for data mining and
predictive analytics.

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 •Data sample is collected from the source systems: The sample collected is based on the data
model for the particular model. The basic data model is reconfigured after discussions with the
client’s domain experts.

•Data are preprocessed for analysis: Once the samples are collected from the analytical data
mart, it is preprocessed to be used in modeling. Typical pre processing we carryout in our
modeling engine are – binning, example selection, feature selection, standardization

•Analysis: The preprocessed data is analyzed for outliers, skewness and other information which
needs further preprocessing before modeling.

•Modeling: The model is built using advanced techniques like Logistic regression Neural network
and Decision tree .The engine has validation algorithms which will optimize the business
objective of maximizing the identification of probable churn.

•Validation: Validation of the model is carried out with holdout and test samples. This is an
iterative process to continuously improve the predictive accuracy by following the Build-Test-
Rebuild methodology.

•Customer Scoring
Once the model is developed, it will be available for scoring (he new set of subs who are to be
scored for a possible churn in the near future is fed to the model for scoring.

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Solution has interactive output which demonstrate solution effectiveness –
• %age accuracy of prediction
• Lift – i.e improvement in prediction with and without models

The most important

attributes are ranked
1st
Confusion matrix showing model
accuracy in identifying targets

Histogram shows each

attribute’s behavior
against target

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Scoring predicts the likely responses of individual/groups of customers

Likely
responses

Predictions

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com
© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com
 Most analytics solutions have powerful modeling and prediction engines.
But business users needs interactive front-end OR user interfaces to
make effective use of modeling results.

We have powerful and interactive UI for analytics.

They are present in multiple forms –

• Interactive Reports
• Dashboards
• Early warning dashboards
• Multi-dimensional analysis
• Email triggers
• SMS triggers

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Early warning system – Customizable for analytical solutions

Month wise Difference between

actual and budget
Year by Year
growth for
different
dimensions

Actual is slightly Actual is much lesser Product wise variance

lesser than budget when compared to budget of Actual against
budget

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Interactive analysis - Cube view
Cube selection
Dimension selection
Dimension level

Select Measures

Filtering

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 • Integrated solution having data handling, modeling, and analysis tools seamlessly
integrated
• Provides choice of algorithms – Decision Tree, Logistic regression and Neural
networks
• Pre-built models for key business functions
• Strong analysis capabilities – dashboards, multi-dimensional analysis
• Decision support tools as add-ons – Early warning, what-if modeler…
• Works on multiple OS – Windows and Linux
• Multiple modes of data capture
• Scalable architecture
• Client Server and web-based deployment models

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Analyse the historic churn to understand what is happening in churns
• Segment the customers into different groups
• Define the churn risk level for different customer groups
• Identify the most effective retention activity for each group
• Predict the churn probability for customers at segment level and individual
customer level
• Track the impact of retention activities at customer level
• Track the predicted V/s actual churns to determine improvement areas

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com
 • More than 40 companies offering data mining tools as per
ww.kdnuggets.com
• Leading Data mining Software Tools
• Clementine – SPSS
• Enterprise Miner – SAS
• Intelligent Miner for Data – IBM
• KXEN –KXEN Analytics Suite
• Insightful Miner

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Pre-built OR to be developed from scratch
• User configurability of modeling parameters
• Range of data mining algorithms in the tool
• The ability to handle large data sets
• Ease of use
• Analysis capabilities
• Implementation timelines
• Total Cost of ownership

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Insightful
Algorithms IBM SPSS SAS KXEN ABIBA
Miner
Decision Trees Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Logistic regression Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Bayesian Neural Networks Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 Insightful
Features IBM SPSS SAS KXEN ABIBA
Miner
Range of Algorithms 8 8 9 9 7 7

Analysis Capabilities 10 7 7 7 7 9

Ability to handle large datasets 9 7 8 8 8 7

Ease of Use 7 8 7 6.5 8 9

Implementation Timelines 7 7 7 9 7 9

Pre built /further configuration

5 5 5 5 5 9
required

Total cost of ownership 6 6 5 6 7 9

User configurability of modeling
7 7 7 7 7 8
parameters

These are our comparative ratings of key solutions. They are for internal discussions ONLY.
The analysis capabilities and the range of algorithms supported by ABIBA would be enhanced in the next
release

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Single Vendor – One Stop shop – No need for a 3rd party analytics tools
and a separate implementation partner.
• Business user driven implementation– No dependency on analysts, a
scarce resource in many markets
• Ease of use – Customisable GUI, workflow guiding model building
• Position as integrated with relevant Tecnotree solutions – solutions like
loyalty management, convergent rating, Concierge etc..
• Pre-built Telecom models – reduced time to deploy
• High level of configurability and customisation – suits rapidly changing
market dynamics
• Pricing flexibility – In-house, proprietary solutions gives greater flexibility
• Off-shore driven deployment – If data can be provided offshore AND
• Lower overall TCO – upto 40% lower than other industry standard tools

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Support multiple data formats like xls, csv etc.,
• Increase automisation in data preprocessing like data import/export, data
exploration and data cleansing tasks, and reduction of dimensionality prior
to modeling
• Increase predictive power of variables by including the data
transformation option
• Ability to build multiple models for same data and compare them
• Include Querying Manager
• Documentation at the end of every process explaining the results
• Add more algorithms to strengthen modeling
• Build capability to develop micro-models for a model

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Study the current and past churns to identify patterns in churn in
different customer groups.
• Some of the important ways of analyzing customer groups are –
• Based on subscriber payment mode – Not relevant for MTNA since it is
primarily prepaid subscribers.
• Based on tariff Or product
• Based on cumulative usage OR revenue
• Based on Age on Network
• Based on region
• Based on ARPU bands
• We use between 5 to 15 variables in the modeling process to get the best
results from the solution. Sample data what we recommend are

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Based on this identify an initial sample for the predictive modeling – the sample
size would depend on the customer segment identified. It can vary from 10,000 to
200,000.
• Identify the major drivers for churn based on discussions with business teams.
The TOP churn drivers we have identified for prepaid subscribers based on our
experience are given below. A more detailed description of this is given in
Annexure 1
• Network issues
• Reduced tariff by competition
• Poor standards of Customer service
• Build a model using advanced analytics techniques. Considering the nature of the
churns witnessed in MTNA, we recommend we use decision tree as the technique
for prediction.
• We normally build 3-10 models iteratively using different variables to arrive at a
robust and effective model.
• The models are tested against the ability to predict the TOP4-5 reasons for churn.
These reasons are strong enough to predict up to 80% of the churns. So we try and
follow the 80-20 rule in capturing the churn drivers.

© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com

 • Validating :The model built is tested using a test set of data for validating the
accuracy of prediction.
• Validating with business owners :During this process, we interact with the
business owners to validate the model findings and accuracy.
• Model scoring : Once the model is approved, the model can be used for scoring
the current active base of subscribers.
• Different models for different customer segments :Since different customer
groups display different behavior, loyalty and churn characteristics, we recommend
that separate models be built for customer segments which are very different in
their behavior. This helps to improve the accuracy of the prediction for different
groups. The size of the group and the number of models depends on the local
market and business user inputs.
• Deployment in live environment :Finally, the different models are deployed in live
environment and integrated with automated data capture and processing tools.
This ensures the model does the prediction on an ongoing basis.
• Integration of Outcome with analytics solutions :In addition, the output of the
predictive solution is integrated with the analytics solution to allow different types
of analysis of the active and churn subscribers.

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© Abiba Systems | www.abibasystems.com