MINI-SPEC

REFERENDUM
April 2010 Report
Date: 24th April 2010

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Methodology
POLL METHODOLOGY

Sample Size 2,003

Margin of error +/- 2.2%

Target population Kenya adult aged 18years and above

Sample distribution Nationally representative

Data collection methodology Computer Aided Telephone

Interviewing (CATI)

Survey field dates 21st – 23rd April 2010

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“How important do you think it is for Kenya to have a new
constitution?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” –
by Province

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” –
by Setting & Gender

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” –
by Level of Education

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“Who has influenced your opinion on draft constitution the
most?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is
there anything at all that you do not like or support?”

Base: 1729(Those know something about the

draft constitution) .

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“Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is
there anything at all that you do not like or support?” – By
Province

% Saying “Yes”

Base: 1729 (Those know something about the

draft constitution).

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“Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is
there anything at all that you do not like or support?”

Base: 1267 (Those who support the draft constitution in the

referendum).

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“Do you support the inclusion of Kadhi courts in the draft
constitution?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“Do you think Christian leaders are justified to run a 'No'
campaign in regards to the draft constitution?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How would you vote in the referendum on the draft
constitution?”

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How would you vote in the referendum on the draft
constitution?” – by Knowledge of Content.

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“How would you vote in the referendum on the draft
constitution?” – by Province

Base: 2003(All respondent)

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“What is the main reason you haven’t made up your mind?

Base: 376(Those still Undecided)

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POLL METHODOLOGY
The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting
age). A sample size of 2,003 respondents was drawn, using a 35:65 urban to rural ratio.
The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample
size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to
make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey
was conducted between 21st-23th April 2010.
Data were collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). CATI is
a call-centre approach towards survey interviewing, and consists of two systems: (1) a
computer system (both hardware and software) for administering electronic
questionnaires, and (2) a telephone system for contacting the respondents. The
advantage of this methodology is that it is fast and accurate with responses entered into
computers as the phone interviews were being conducted.

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POLL METHODOLOGY…Continued
To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of 50,000 Kenyans aged 18+ was
used. This database has been accumulated over time by Steadman Synovate (and
is continuing to be augmented). In this database, comprising the sampling frame,
respondent information such as demographics and geographical location was
collected, including ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing those
respondents to be contacted by this (CATI) method. To achieve the sample for this
opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability
proportional to size (PPS) on this database was used. Doing this ensured
geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of province and setting
(urban/rural) to match the sample structure of previous polls and implicitly reflecting
the distribution of population over Kenya’s districts.

During the interview process, those who were not reached at the first attempt (either
because the number was busy or the call did not go through), automatic
appointments/call backs were programmed by the CATI software. In the event that
no contact was made after 5 attempts on different days and times, this number was
substituted.

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 POLL METHODOLOGY
…Continued (II)

The data collection involved the use of an electronic semi-structured questionnaire

having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured
so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options, including “no opinion.” This
eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The CATI
Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the calls
were actually made and if the responses given were correct.

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 Thank You For Your
Attention.
Our Curiosity Is All Yours.

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