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International Journal of Latest Research in Engineering and Technology (IJLRET)

ISSN: 2454-5031
www.ijlret.com Volume 2 Issue 1 January 2016 PP 56-65

Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


Dr. Waleed, I .J. AL-RijaboFatin,M.Hamam
Collegeof Education of Pure Science, dept. of Physics, Mosul University

Abstract:Wind energy is renewable andenvironment friendly, which can be connected for various uses. A
precise knowledge of wind energy regime is a pre-requisite for the efficient planning and implementation of any
wind energy project. The main purpose of this paper is to perform an investigation on the wind energy potential
inNinava Governorate in the northern area of Iraq. Therefore, in this study, wind data collected over a period
ofnearly three decades at five different locations in order to figure out the wind energy potential in this region.
The data from selected stations were analyzed using the two-parameters of Weibull probability distribution.

Keyword: Weibull distribution, Wind power density, Weibull parameter, Wind


Introduction
The distribution of wind speeds is important for the design of wind farms, power generators, agricultural
applications like irrigation and the general pattern of wind speed variations (1,2) . Currently, the wind energy is
one of the fastest developing renewable energy source technology across the globe (3)Wind energy is an
alternative energy source compared to fossil fuel, its domestic, clean, free and inexhaustible(4 , 5 ). . It has
theadvantage of being suitable to be used locally in rural and remote areas (6). Coastal areas and mountains
with high wind potential are considered most suitable for wind energy utilization (7).Generally, the wind energy
is characterized by a high variability both in space and time ( 8) therefore it's very important to describe the
variation inwind speeds for optimizing the design of the systems in order to reduce energy-generating costs (9).
The Weibull Probability Density Function with its two characteristic parameters ( c scale parameter and k
shape parameter) has been found to be the accurate and adequate in analyzing and interpreting the wind speed
distribution and estimate wind energy potential(10,11).
The shape parameterhas inverse relationshipwith the standard deviation of thedistribution. High values ofshape
parameterindicate low variability of wind related to its average intensity. The scale factor directly relates with
the average wind speed (12).Wind power density is considered to be the best indicatorto determine the potential
wind resource, which is critical to all aspect of wind energy exploitation (13).It is well known that the power of
the wind speed through a blade sweep is increases as the cube of itsvelocity (14).
The aim of the present work is to evaluate the wind power density in five locations in Ninava Governorate
which is (Mosul ,Rabea ,Baag ,Sinjar , Talafar) for the period (1980 2010) using statistical analysis
techniques .

Theory
The Weibull probability density function is given by Eq. 1.

. )1(

Wheref(v)is the probability of the measured wind speedv,k is the Weibull shape parameter (dimensionless), andc
is the Weibull scale parameter (m/s).
The cumulative frequency distribution is the integral of the Weibull probability density function, and is given by
.Eq. 2

( 2)
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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


By transforminginto logarithmic form, Eq. 2 could be then expressed by Eq. 3

ln [ - ln ( 1- F(v) ) ] = k ln(v) k ln (c))3)


In order to find theWeibull shape and scale parameters, a graphical method is introduced and used by plotting
lnvagainstln[-ln(1-F(v))] in which a straight line will be obtained . The Weibull shape parameter, k, will be the
slope of the line and the y-intercept will be the value of the term k lnc .The relation between wind power
density (WPD) in( w/m2) and the wind speed is

1
2

WPD = V

(4)

Where is the air density of the air


The wind power density(W/m 2) can be expressed in terms of the Weibull shape and scale parameters, (k
and c,) using the correlation shown by Eq.5

.( 5 )
The measured surface wind speed must be modified from the normalized height (10 m) using Eq. 6

Vh / Va) = (Zh/Za)

.( 6 )

Where:
V is the wind speed in (m/s) at normalized height Zh (10m).
h

Va is the wind speed in( m/s ) at the turbine height Za


The exponent () depends on factors as surface roughness and atmospheric stability .
Numerically, it lies in the range of (0.14 0.5)

Site& Measurement
Mean monthly values of wind speedare obtainedfrom Iraqi meteorological organization for the period (1980 2010) for(Mosul, Rabea,Sinjar , Talafar) stations and for the period (1992 - 2010) inBaaj station according to
the date of operation of this station .Thegeographical coordinate of these stations listed in table (1). Fig ( 1 )
show Locations of the five meteorological stations in Ninava Governorate .Coefficient of Determination (R2),
Correlation coefficient (R) was used as the main criteria .The goodness of fit was judged by the size of
coefficient of determination.
Table ( 1) : Geographicalcoordinate of the five meteorological stations In NinavaGovernorate
Stations

Latitude
o

Longitude
o

Altitude ( m)

Mosul

36 19'

43 09'

223

Telafr

36o 22'

42o 28'

273

Sinjar

36o 19'

41o 50'

465

Rabea

36 48'

42 06'

382

Baaj

36 o02'

41o 48'

321

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ

Fig ( 1 ) : Location of the five meteorological stations in Ninava Governorate

Results &Discussion
1- Meanmonthly,seasonally and annually wind speed variations
Table (2) show the increasing values of wind speed at height (50)m in comparison with that at height(10)m in all
stations .From the table we can classify the stations in to three groups:
First group: with high wind speed represent by Talafarstation, where the mean values of wind speed at (10)m
was ranged between(3.8- 5.4)m/s.
At height (50)m the mean wind speed was ranged between (5.7 7.7)m/s.
Second group: with middle wind speed represent by Sinjar and Baag stations, where the mean values of wind
speed at (10)m was ranged between( 1.7 4.4 )m/s.At height (50)m the mean wind speed was ranged between (
3.1 6.5 )m/s .
Third group: with low wind speed represent by Rabea and Mosul stations, where the mean values of wind
speed at (10) m was ranged between (0.8 -2.1) m/s.At height (50)m the mean wind speed was ranged between
(1.5- 3.5) m/s.
Table (2): Mean Monthly, Seasonally, Annually Values of Wind Speed in (m/s) in all stations at height
(10, 50) m
Mosul

Rabea

Baaj

Sin jar

Talafar

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

Jan

1.0

1.8

1.6

2.7

2.0

3.3

1.9

3.1

3.8

5.7

Fab

1.3

2.3

1.7

2.8

2.3

3.5

2.3

3.7

4.1

6.0

Mar

1.4

2.4

1.8

3.0

2.7

4.3

2.8

4.5

4.3

6.3

Apr

1.5

2.6

1.8

3.0

3.1

4.8

3.2

4.9

4.5

6.5

Months

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


May

1.8

3.0

2.1

3.4

3.5

5.2

4.0

6.0

5.1

7.2

Jun

1.8

3.0

2.1

3.4

3.9

5.8

4.4

6.5

5.1

7.2

Jul

1.7

2.8

2.1

3.4

4.0

6.0

4.4

6.5

5.4

7.7

Aug

1.5

2.6

2.0

3.3

3.7

5.5

4.0

6.0

5.3

7.5

Sep

1.1

2.0

1.8

3.0

3.2

4.9

3.3

5.0

4.9

7.1

Oct

0.9

1.7

1.6

2.6

2.6

4.1

2.2

3.6

4.3

6.3

Nov

0.8

1.5

1.4

2.4

2.1

3.2

1.7

2.8

4.0

5.9

Dec

1.0

1.8

1.4

2.4

2.0

3.3

1.7

2.8

3.9

5.8

Winter

1.1

2.0

1.5

2.6

2.1

3.2

2.0

3.2

3.9

5.8

Spring

1.6

2.7

1.9

3.1

3.1

4.8

3.3

5.1

4.6

6.7

Summer

1.7

2.8

2.1

3.4

3.9

5.8

4.1

6.3

5.3

7.5

Autumn

0.9

1.7

1.6

2.7

2.6

4.0

2.4

3.8

4.4

6.4

Annual

1.3

2.3

1.8

3.0

2.9

4.5

3.0

4.6

4.5

6.6

2- Wind Speed Frequency Distribution


Weibull parameters were found using Graphical Methods.
Table ( 3) show the mean monthly values of weibull parameters (k,c)for
all stations .From the table we can see that :The Max. Values of (k) in all stations was ranged between (16.8
4.4), while the Min.values was ranged between ( 6.0 -1.1 ). The Max.values of (c) was ranged between
( 5.5 -1.9 )m/s, while the Min. valueswas ranged between(4.0 1.1 )m/s
The mean annual values of (k ,c ) in all stations during the period (1980-2010 )except forBaag (1992 -2010) was
as follow :
k =2.4, c =1.4 m/s for MosulStation. k =3.5, c = 2.2m/sfor Rabea.
k = 4.1,c = 3.3 m/s forBaag station. k = 3.3, c = 3.5 m/sforSinjar
k =7.6 c =4.9 m/s for Talafar station.
Table( 3) : Mean Monthly Values of Weibull Shape(K) and Scale(C) Parameters in all stations
Months

Mosul

Rabea

Baaj

Sin jar

Talafar

C(m/s)

C(m/s)

C(m/s)

C(m/s)

Jan

1.8

1.1

2.5

1.9

4.02

2.17

3.4

2.08

9.0

C(m/
s)
4.0

Fab

2.6

1.4

2.8

1.7

3.6

2.3

3.8

2.5

10.5

4.3

Mar

2.4

1.6

2.4

1.9

3.9

2.9

5.0

3.2

15.4

4.4

Apr

3.0

1.7

3.6

2.0

4.3

3.3

5.7

3.5

16.8

4.6

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


May

3.0

1.9

4.2

2.3

5.1

3.7

6.2

4.2

9.4

5.4

Jun

4.0

1.9

5.1

2.3

6.0

4.1

5.7

4.7

12

5.3

Jul

4.4

1.8

4.1

2.4

7.5

4.2

5.0

4.7

12

5.5

Aug

3.6

1.7

3.1

2.2

5.4

4.0

4.1

4.3

9.0

5.5

Sep

2.8

1.2

3.3

1.9

4.8

3.4

4.3

3.6

11.1

5.0

Oct

3.0

1.1

3.7

1.7

4.3

2.8

3.1

2.4

9.0

4.5

Nov

2.4

1.1

3.8

1.5

3.3

2.2

3.6

1.8

7.1

4.2

Dec

1.8

1.1

2.7

1.6

3.9

2.0

3.0

1.9

6.0

4.0

3- Wind Power Density


Table ( 3 ):Show the Mean Monthly, Seasonally, Annually Values of Wind Power Density (w/m2) in all
stations at height (10, 50) m
Months

Mosul

Rabea

Baaj

Sin jar

Talafar

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

10m

50m

Jan

0.6

3.5

2.5

12

4.8

21.7

4.2

18

33.2

112

Fab

1.3

7.4

3.0

13.3

7.4

26

7.4

24.1

41.7

130.7

Mar

1.7

8.3

3.5

16.3

12

48.1

18.3

55.1

48.1

151.2

Apr

2.0

10.6

3.5

16.3

18

67

19.8

71.1

55.1

166.1

May

3.5

16.3

5.6

23.8

26

85

38.7

130.7

80.3

225.8

Jun

3.5

16.3

5.6

23.8

36

118

51.5

166

80.3

225.8

Jul

3.0

13.3

5.6

23.8

41.7

130.7

51.5

166

95.3

276.2

Aug

2.0

10.6

4.8

21.7

30.6

100.6

38.7

130.7

90.1

255.2

Sep

0.8

4.8

3.5

16.3

19.8

71.2

21.7

75.6

71.2

216.5

Oct

0.4

3.0

2.5

10.6

10.6

41.7

6.4

28.2

48.1

151.3

Nov

0.3

2.0

1.7

8.3

5.6

19.8

3.0

13.3

38.7

124.2

Dec

0.6

3.5

1.7

8.3

4.8

21.7

3.0

13.3

36

118

Winter

0.8

4.8

2.0

10.6

5.6

19.8

4.8

19.8

36

118

Spring

2.5

12

4.1

18

18

67

21.7

80.2

59

182

Summe
r
Autumn

3.0

13.2

5.6

24

36

118

41.7

151.3

90

255.2

0.4

3.0

2.5

12

10.6

38.7

8.4

33.2

51.5

158.6

Annual

1.3

7.4

3.5

16.3

14.8

55.1

16.3

59

55.1

174

We can deduce from the table:


1- The mean monthly value of wind power density in all stations show minimum values in winter months and
maximum values in summer months, this is due to the minimum values of wind speed in winter and maximum
values in summer.

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


2- Minimum values of (WPD) was obtained in December at (10, 50) m height in all stations while the
maximum values was obtained in July.
3-The higher values of (WPD) was obtained inTalafarthen Sinjar ,Baag ,Rabea, Mosul respectively
4- The (WPD) at height 50 m is more than ( 3 6 )times than that of 10m.
Mean Monthly Values of WPD were also obtained using weibull parameters in all stations . Table ( 4
) and fig ( 2 ) show a comparisons between the Actual and Weibull WPD in all stations
Table ( 4 ): A comparisons between the Actual and Weibull WPD in all stations .
Mosul

Rabea

Baaj

Sin jar

Talafar

Months

Weibull

Actual

Weibull

Actual

Weibull

Actual

Weibull

Actual

Weibull

Actual

Jan

0.67

0.6

3.7

2.5

5.5

4.8

5.0

4.2

34.5

33.2

Fab

1.48

1.3

2.95

3.0

7.0

7.4

8.7

7.4

43.2

41.7

Mar

2.0

1.7

3.6

3.5

13.5

12

17.4

18.3

47.3

48.1

Apr

2.4

2.0

4.3

3.5

19.6

18

22.8

19.8

54.4

55.1

May

4.1

3.5

6.5

5.6

27.2

26

39.5

38.7

85.7

80.3

Jun

3.7

3.5

6.3

5.6

36.8

36

55.6

51.5

81.5

80.3

Jul

3.1

3.0

7.5

5.6

40.0

41.7

55.9

51.5

91.3

95.3

Aug

2.7

2.0

6.2

4.8

34.3

30.6

43.9

38.7

90.0

90.1

Sep

1.0

0.8

3.9

3.5

21.0

19.8

25.4

21.7

68.3

71.2

Oct

0.65

0.4

2.5

2.5

11.9

10.6

8.0

6.4

49.2

48.1

Nov

0.36

0.3

1.8

1.7

5.8

5.6

3.2

3.0

39.6

38.7

Dec

0.67

0.6

2.2

1.7

4.5

4.8

4.0

3.0

34.3

36

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ


5
Actual

WPD(w/m2)

Weibull

3
2
1
0

Jan Fab Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

WPD(w/m2)

Rabea

Actual

6
Weibull
4
2
0

WPD(w/m2)

60
50

Sinjar

Actual

40

Weibull

30
20
10
0

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ

WPD(w/m2)

100

Actual

Talafar

80

Weibull

60
40
20
0

WPD(w/m2)

50

Baaj

40

Actual
Weibull

30
20
10
0

Comparisons between the Actual and Weibull WPD in all stations . fig (2) :

WPDest .(w/m2)

11

Rabea
6
y = 1.2524x - 0.2523
R = 0.9335

WPD mea.(w/m2)

WPDest .(w/m2)

The values of WPDestimated by the Weibull Parameters were compared with the corresponding measured
values in all stations. The results are illustrated in fig (3 ). From the figure the deviation between the measured
and estimatedvalues are very small during the months and this mean that the weibull parameter model are
suitable to be used in calculating wind speed. Fig ( 3) also shows the correlation between the measured and
estimated WPD for the five stations in Ninava Governorate. The values of (R2) for these correlations are
ranged between (0.933 - 0.995 ). This means that the WeibullParameter model give very good results in
estimate the mean monthly values of wind speed in all
Stations

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6
4
2
0

Mosul
y = 1.0826x + 0.1253
R = 0.9795

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 32 3.5 4

WPD mea.(w/m )

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Analysis of Wind Power Density inNinava Governorate / IRAQ

WPDest .(w/m2)

WPDest
.(w/m2)

63

Sinjar

43
23

y = 1.0696x + 0.5686
R = 0.995

3
3

13

23

33

43

53

63

WPD mea.(w/m2)

60
40

Baaj

20

y = 1.0051x + 0.7241
R = 0.9896

0
0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

WPD mea.(w/m2)

WPDest.(w/m2)

110

Talafar

90
70
50

y = 0.9848x + 1.008
R = 0.9882

30
30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WPD mea.(w/m2)
Fig ( 3) : correlations between the measured and estimated WPD for the five stations in
NinavaGovernorate

Conclusion
1- The Max. values of wind speed at (10 ,50) m height in Ninava Governorate was obtained in Talafar station
while the min . value was obtained in Mosul station.
2- The Min. valuesof WPD was obtained in December in all stations , while the Max. values was obtained in
July.
3- A high correlations were obtained between the measured and calculated WPD in all stations where the( R2)
of these correlations was ranged between ( 0.93 -0.99 ) .
4- The mean monthly values of the shape parameter ( k )was ranged between ( 16.8 -1.8 ) and the scale
parameter ( c )was ranged between
( 5.5 -1.1 ) m/s .

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