Professional Documents
Culture Documents
VOLUME 3
ISSUE 7
JULY 2008 SO
LU
TI
ON
S TO CHAN
GE
MindTEXT olicy Research
MINDTEXT
The Nigerian Diary
is published by
CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH
39/717 (A), Karakkat Road, Cochin, India - 682
016 Reverberations
Tel: +91 - 484 - 646 - 9177
MINDTEXT TEAM
Kalpana Sudheer (Editor)
Lekha Pillai (Editor)
T.V.Vinu (Layout/Design)
Aneish Rajan (Consultant)
EDITORIAL
Well, what this month signifies is far greater than what is visible to
the outside eye. Four years back, in the month of July, a 'change' was set in
to motion. The Centre for Public Policy Research was born on 9 July 2004.
Though the conception took place years prior to it becoming a reality, we
use this month and that year as the reference point of change.
To add it as icing on the cake, the Centre has been awarded the
'Changeloomer of the Year' award for 2007-08. There cannot be a more apt
time than this for all of us to be proud being part of the Centre, as social
entrepreneurs and change agents. Enough reasons for celebrations?!
S
uccess of any organisation is
has been awarded with evaluated on various levels and
planes. Sustained effort to keep
the momentum going is a case study to
document in any case. If it is reckoned
with Centre for Public Policy Research
(CPPR), it is noteworthy to cherish.
Over the years, many have shown
interest to lean from the success story
of CPPR. This has been as worth as
'Changelooms' since it shows the
acceptance and recognition of CPPR in
a growing domain.
Thanks to all the team members and all who have The Centre wishes to be the
contributed immensely to the growth and development champion of public policy matters for
of CPPR. Great going CPPR!!! the public by the public. In the course
-TEAM CPPR of time, the Centre wishes to encourage
franchise model for policy think tanks
all around the country. We should not
forget our roles that has bestowed on us
by others.
I
remember preparing an essay on the same lines as the title above, 11 years ago when I
was in school. The topic was very relevant then and its relevance increased as the years
went by. Thus it is ironic that we waited for the recurrence of a second oil crisis, with
crude oil prices hitting new record-highs in the 8th year of the 21st century, for the topic to
be given front-page coverage once again.
There are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource:
· Production starts at zero;
· Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
· Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is
depleted.
These simple rules were first described in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert. Dr. King
predicted that conventional oil production in the US will rise to its peak in 1970 and it
actually peaked in 1971 and ever since, it started its terminal decline. India's production
peaked in 1997 and the major oil exporting nations of OPEC will experience their peaks in
next 10-15 years.
There are unproven oil reserves in Africa, America and Antarctica which are being
explored now. Then there are unconventional oil resources: heavy crude oil, tar sand and oil
shale found in various parts of the globe including Canada and Antarctica. But oil industry
experts have opined that producing them are not as efficient, requiring extra energy for
refining pushing up the production costs and resulting up to three times more of greenhouse
gas emissions per barrel. Oil is used in transportation, residential, commercial, industrial
and agricultural sectors.
The world-wide demand for oil grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to
2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-04. World demand for oil is projected to increase by 37%
over 2006 levels by 2030 (118 million barrels per day in 2006 from 86 barrels per day in 1996
DEMAND largely due to increase in demand from the transportation sector). USA is the highest
consumer of oil, the country consumed 17.7 million barrels a day in 1995 which increased to
FOR OIL 20.7 million barrels a day in 2005. Though USA is the highest consumer of oil in the world,
emerging economies like India and China with their strong economies are expected to have
higher demand for oil in the years to come. India's oil imports are expected to more than
IS ON triple from 2005 levels by 2020 rising to 5 million barrels per day. India is now the fifth
largest consumer of oil in the world.
THE RISE What do we understand from all these numbers? Two fundamental things: World oil
AND ITS demand and especially India's demand for oil is on the rise and its supply is not guaranteed
to last forever. It is as simple as that.
SUPPLY IS A simple analysis of oil consumption figures make very clear that Transportation is
the sector which uses more oil than all the other sectors: commercial, agricultural, power
NOT generation, household and industrial. In 2003-04, 29% percent of oil was consumed to fulfill
the transportation needs of our country. India imported 68% of oil in 2003 and with domestic
production projected to further decline, it could go up to 91% in 2030. India largely imports
GUARANTEED oil from countries of the Middle East with Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter. In power
generation, even though oil does not play a major role, fossil fuels are the major drivers
TO LAST with coal being the highest contributer. And if there is 5 percent growth rate in production,
it is estimated that Indian coal reserves will run out in 40 years. At the current rate of
FOREVER production, it could last for the next eighty years. India imports coal from other countries as
domestic production alone cannot meet the growing demands.
The major reason why Indians' transportation woes are multiplied and why there is increasing dependence on oil is
the one and the same: the ineffective public transport system in all the major cities. Only the four metropolitan cities of
Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata have suburban rail systems. Delhi and Kolkata has Metro Rail but Delhi leads the
country in the purchase of the most number of cars in a year, Bangalore comes second. India had 5.7 million cars in 2003-04
and is projected to have 200 million cars by 2030. As the country prospers and the per-capita income of the population
increase, people buy more cars and two wheelers and thus adding to the demand for oil in India. Two wheelers and cars
account for more than 80% of vehicle population in major cities. The share of buses in transportation in these cities is
nothing but negligible.
Roads carry roughly around 70% of freight transport in India and thus it is easy to see why prices of food items go up
the moment there is a fuel price rise. Indian Railways is the largest rail network in Asia and thus depending on Railways for a
larger share of freight transport may not be a very bad idea especially due to the manner in which Railways improved its
efficiency by leaps and bounds in the last few years.
Indian consumers pay lesser for oil than their counterparts in other countries because of subsidies and as oil
companies world over enjoy profits currently, Indian oil companies are struggling to meet their ends. The government
issues oil bonds to oil companies to limit their losses and in 2005-06 these oil bonds were equivalent to almost 4% of the
fiscal deficit. India's 1/3rd of imports is oil imports and if oil prices keep rising along with our demand, it will adversely
affect fiscal and trade deficit. During the oil shock of 1979, India's GDP reduced by 5.2%. We will know in the next year how
much the second crisis is going to cost us.
Energy Conservation Act was passed by Parliament of India in 2001. According to various provisions of the Act,
there are norms of energy consumption for large energy consumers, Energy Conservation Building Code have to be adhered
to while constructing new buildings and electrical appliances are required to meet energy performance standards and to
display energy consumption labels. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Limited (OVL) acquired shares in oil fields in
countries like Sudan, Syria, Iran, US, Australia, Vietnam and Nigeria. Due to political instability in the Middle East and
increasing domestic demand for energy, India is keen on decreasing its dependency on OPEC to meet its oil demand, and
increasing its energy security.
Several Indian oil companies, primarily lead by ONGC and Reliance Industries, have started a massive hunt for oil in
several regions in India including Rajasthan, Krishna-Godavari and north-eastern Himalayas. The proposed Iran-Pakistan-
India pipeline is a part of India's plan to meet its increasing energy demand. But these are only short term measures. The
only long-term solution for the problem of dependency on fossil fuels lies in using the vast amount of renewable resources
for creating energy and India, thank heavens, is full of it. The greenhouse gas emissions caused by production and
consumption of fossil fuels have already caused a great deal of harm to the environment. One of the well-known
advantages of producing energy by renewable sources is that it will minimise greenhouse gas emissions. Wind, Solar and
Nuclear energy in particular hold a lot of importance if we are to have power generation with lesser emphasis on coal.
States including Karnataka, Maharashtra and Orrisa have passed a legislation which requires that a certain percentage of
power produced in such states are from renewable sources every year.
There is considerable scope of improvement in urban public transportation. Many foreign countries including US and UK
have special zones where they actively discourage personal transport by charging high fees for those who use personal
transport. Metro Rail in major cities will go a long way in addressing this problem. Electrifying the entire stretch of railways
is another solution and there has been considerable progress in this regard.
Fuel substitution is being looked at extensively to reduce the dependence of oil in transportation. A.P.J. Abdul
Kalam is a major proponent of bio-fuel made out of Jatropha. Dr. Kalam also believes the option of vehicles run on
electricity, hydrogen and fuel cells could be feasible options for the future. Automobile majors have already manufactured
and tested cars and vehicles on alternative fuel sources. One recent development in this regard has been the Government's
mandate that oil companies will sell oil and petrol containing 20% of bio-diesel by 2017.
Whatever progress we have made in the case of using renewable or alternative resources to create energy, we are
still in the infancy stage. Most of the western nations are already ahead of us in this regard. This is where Research &
Development plays a crucial part, the most important part. India has never given the required importance or support due
to Research and Development in its independent history. Setting up of more IITs and IIScs and other research institutes will
not alone solve the problem. We need to have committed and qualified academicians who encourage innovation and out of
the box thinking. We need public and private sector support in funding and supporting enterprising individuals and
organisations.
Energy conservation is key, we have all the policy structures in place and now we need to execute them. Selfish
politicians and administrators should not have a place in this journey, we need visionaries and statesmen. Energy
sustainability should be the goal and it will not happen over night. We need to create increasing awareness about the goal
of energy sustainability. Energy sustainability will be a crucial factor in determining India's continued economic growth in
more ways than one.
There will be a day when the entire reserves of the world's fossil fuels run out. As Aldous Huxley once aptly put it
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” We can't afford to ignore it anymore than we have already done.
and i
RAW
yself I
clearly remember that night. I had been trying to sleep for a very long time, but
had been unable to do so. My mind was a whirlpool of thoughts and emotions. This
was all because I was going to have to stay far away from a relationship that I had
shared for more than 21 years; a bond so unique that it was special to only a few
people. It was the bond I shared with my twin sister. My twin and I were inseparable.
Bonded together from the womb of my mother itself, we couldn’t be separated since
the day we were born. Since the day of our birth, my parents daily witnessed different
aspects of this unique relationship.
My mother often recalls an incident that happened when I was just a few
months old. Having been born premature, we used to cry all day and night. So I had to
be carried by my father and my sister by my mother. One day my parents got so
frustrated that they decided to leave us on the bed and not carry us in their arms as
they attended to other household duties. My sister was already on the bed howling her
heart away and I was in my mother’s arms. My mother laid me also next to my sister.
What happened next amazed all in the house. As soon as I was laid next to my sister,
both of our cries diminished and we started frantically waving our hands around. Once
our hands met contact, both of us held each other’s hand tightly and our cries
vanished. As long as that contact was there, it seemed as if there was nothing else we
needed. If anyone tried to separate us, we again started throwing tantrums. This
shows how strong a bond we share. But now, we would have to be apart without a
glimpse of each other for quite a long time.
I had to go to another place for my studies while she stayed back at home. I
just couldn’t bear the thought of being far from her. It was as though I was leaving a
very integral part of me back at home; like my leg or one hand, without which
functioning is impossible. We were so close that we never needed words to
communicate with one another. A look was enough to convey an entire thought. Our
teachers always complained to my parents that although we never talked to each
other while lectures were on, yet our eye contacts said more than words could. And
they could never punish us for that!!! This of course does not mean that we were
always at peace with each other. We had our regular doses of arguments, and fights;
but things never got bitter. Fights always got solved in less than 5 minutes with either
of the party compromising or with both of us realizing how foolish we.
There were also other complexities of being a twin. People got so confused
with our appearance that we began to feet like we were facing an identity crisis. I
began to feel like her and she like me. Sometimes the same boy fell in love with both
of us at the same time, and that too knowing we were twins!!!Those were really funny
moments; but also very irritating. The best part of this relationship was that, though
we both were identical in looks, yet we were completely in every other aspect. If she
liked the colour red, I hated it. If I happened to like red the next day, she would
vehemently refuse to like it!! We were a combination of total opposites beautifully
blended into one.
It has been two long months now since we are apart. There were times when I
felt as though deep within me I had lost something that I loved. I felt moody at times
for no reason at all. But now I have learnt to live as myself and not as two persons in
one. Although I prefer that things had stayed as they were, yet I know that one can’t
have all that he/ she always wishes for. I would trade anything in the world to stay
always with my sister, but I know that it is not very practical. Life has to go on. My
telephone bills continue to rise, but that is alright. I have the satisfaction knowing
that I share a very unique relationship; one that I am very grateful for and no-one,
except God can change that.
I
t is only in recent times that I have become so fascinated by
Urban Transport Research. Though it is quite coincindental, I
have been taken aback by several facts that I have come
across in this short period. This could offer substantial
evidence to how civil society moves over time. All the time we
keep debating on what is private and what is public and how
each of them is defined. Now I reasonably argue that the road
as a common space, accounts for the largest ever public utility
on earth. Irrespective of the income group, caste, gender, race
and others, a road is used by everyone and in that sense it
outlivens all other utilities.
The other day, I was taking snap shots of Cochin City with my
colleagues. The pictures we took spoke of the deplorable
condition of the roads in the city. At many places, there were
hardly any sidewalks. The few sidewalks, that did exist, were
cluttered with garbage or had gutters flowing through them. A
detailed explanation of this is given in the blog
http://reinvenitngcochin.blogspot.com. This led me to ponder
on why come people still used those disastrous sidewalks. One
possible reason could be the lack of a clear definition of what a
road is. Often a road is defined as the space between one
neighbour's compound to the other; nothing less or more. Most
of the time it seems that no one is bothered about pedestrians
as the entire available land assigned for public space is
completely used to build roads for motor vehicles.
Soon after the pedestrian audit in Kochi, I happened to visit the US.
Washington DC is a marvellous example of how cities are to be planned. All over, I
could see ample space for pedestrians to walk and simply enjoy all the entitled
rights. The width of the side walks are luxuriously broad; though we might not need
such broad sidewalks in India.
Coming back to the pedestrian audit, it has been decided that the IRC standards be followed, however obsolete they might
be.
In shopping areas, the width should be increased by 1 metre which is treated as “dead width”. Where sidewalks are
constructed around buildings and fences, the dead width can be taken as 0.5 metres. For areas of heavy pedestrian activity
such as bus stops, railway stations and recreational areas, the width of sidewalks should be suitably increased to account
for accumulation of pedestrians.'
Source: IRC Guildelines
A mere glance would tell that the above guidelines are not followed in cities. The civility of a city life can be easily be
assessed by these observations. Unless we put relentless efforts to improve our city standards, the gross truth is that the
picture will not be that of a shining India.
She is also training local women in providing basic first aid. She
takes care of the local youth called "Almajharees" who have
been sent away from their homes by giving them house work.
We were overwhelmed to see the warmth, care and protection
they showed towards Susan!
All the children in the area know and love Susan. You can hear
them shouting "Susaaan" from a mile away!
Manali Shah is the Programme and Resource Development Manager, Center for Public Policy Research, currently serving as an international volunteer,
assigned to work as an Organization Development Advisor with an organization called Give (Greater Involvement in Volunteering Efforts) in Lagos, Nigeria
REVERBERATIONS
Hearty Congrats to the home team-CPPR!! Wishing more meaningful interventions and
successes in the days to come! Best Regards
-Uma
MindTEXT kindles the mind and increases the intellectual appetite. The layout is good. May it
quench the thirst of Intellectual Minds. I wish all the best for TEAM CPPR!.
-Prasanth Jena
Man
REFLECTIONS
In The
Man In The Mirror Who's this man, I see in the mirror,
he looks so familiar to me.
He doesn't seem alive, he's surely not dead.
Is this what's called a zombie?
Mirror
He dons a cloak of happiness, wears the mask of smile,
what's the reason for this pretence?
DEAD END
- End of Document -