Presented by Kenneth Hunter, MPA

Small Business Committee

Sources for Information

Special Thank You!

Overview

National, State, Local Information

Past & Present Trends
What does the future hold?

2000q1
2000q2
2000q3
2000q4
2001q1
2001q2
2001q3
2001q4
2002q1
2002q2
2002q3
2002q4
2003q1
2003q2
2003q3
2003q4
2004q1
2004q2
2004q3
2004q4
2005q1
2005q2
2005q3
2005q4
2006q1
2006q2
2006q3
2006q4
2007q1
2007q2
2007q3
2007q4
2008q1
2008q2
2008q3
2008q4
2009q1
2009q2
2009q3
2009q4
2010q1
2010q2
2010q3
2010q4
2011q1
2011q2
2011q3
2011q4
2012q1
2012q2
2012q3
2012q4
2013q1
2013q2
2013q3
2013q4
2014q1
2014q2
2014q3
2014q4
2015q1
2015q2
2015q3
2015q4

The National Picture

Real US GDP (Chained 2009 Dollars) Since 2000 (Annualized)

$20T

$19T

$18T

$17T

2015q4, $16.455T

$16T

$15T

2014q4, $16.151T

$14T

$13T

$12T 2000q1, $12.359T

$11T

$10T

4%

2%

-6%
2000q1
2000q2
2000q3
2000q4
2001q1
2001q2
2001q3
2001q4
2002q1
2002q2
2002q3
2002q4
2003q1
2003q2
2003q3
2003q4
2004q1
2004q2
2004q3
2004q4
2005q1
2005q2
2005q3
2005q4
2006q1
2006q2
2006q3
2006q4
2007q1
2007q2
2007q3
2007q4
2008q1
2008q2
2008q3
2008q4
2009q1
2009q2
2009q3
2009q4
2010q1
2010q2
2010q3
2010q4
2011q1
2011q2
2011q3
2011q4
2012q1
2012q2
2012q3
2012q4
2013q1
2013q2
2013q3
2013q4
2014q1
2014q2
2014q3
2014q4
2015q1
2015q2
2015q3
2015q4

Annual Change in Real GDP Since 2000 (Annualized)

6%

1980-2005 Average,
3.1%
2014q4,
2.5%
2015q4,
1.9%

0%

-2%

-4%

Inflation Depends

Wild Ride for Oil & Fuel

Hows the Market?

Market Stress Remains Subdued

Low Treasury Yields Continue

National Job Market Continues Climb

National Hiring Improving

Labor Force New Normal Now Normal

Hows North Carolina?

$300B
2015Q3

2015Q2

2015Q1

2014Q4

2014Q3

2014Q2

2014Q1

$425B

2013Q4

2013Q3

2013Q2

2013Q1

2012Q4

2012Q3

2012Q2

2012Q1

2011Q4

2011Q3

2011Q2

2011Q1

2010Q4

2010Q3

2010Q2

2010Q1

2009Q4

2009Q3

2009Q2

2009Q1

2008Q4

2008Q3

2008Q2

2008Q1

2007Q4

2007Q3

2007Q2

2007Q1

2006Q4

2006Q3

2006Q2

2006Q1

2005Q4

2005Q3

2005Q2

2005Q1

Real NC GDP (Chained 2009 Dollars) Since 2005 (Annualized)

$500B

$475B
2015Q3, $452.68B

$450B

2014Q3, $440.49B

$400B

$375B

$350B

$325B

Year-to-Year Change in NC Real GDP (3rd Quarter 2015)

-10%
All industry total
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste management services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services, except government
Government

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2.8%
3.2%
17.1%
19.4%
-5.2%
6.8%
3.9%
1.5%
4.0%

-2.4%
6.2%

0.1%
3.0%
4.8%
7.2%
3.3%
-1.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
1.0%
0.0%

25%

What About Rocky Mount?

Rocky Mount MSA Real GDP (Chained Dollars) Since 2001
$8B

$7B

$6B

2014, $6.18B

$5B

$4B

$3B

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1-Year Change in MSA Real GDP (2014)

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Asheville

5.0%

6.0%

4.3%

Burlington

1.4%

Durham-Chapel Hill

3.8%

Fayetteville -1.5%

Goldsboro

0.1%

Greensboro-High Point

4.8%

Greenville

3.6%

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton
Jacksonville

New Bern

2.5%
-0.7%

0.6%

Raleigh

4.6%

Rocky Mount -1.4%

Wilmington
Winston-Salem

2.2%
5.9%

7.0%

24,054

67,133

68,033
62,846

62,213

67,682
62,512

65,423
60,255

65,036

66,208
60,239

61,079

61,189

61,913

61,408

60,967

60K

61,546

Employed

59,308

66,081
60,187

66,823

67,020

66,795

66,368

2014/12 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3 2015/4 2015/5 2015/6 2015/7 2015/8 2015/9 2015/10 2015/11 2015/12

66,441

65K
20K
Labor Force

Labor Force & Employment Levels,

Rocky Mount MSA, December 2014 to December 2015

70K

66,236

22,437

22,213

24,392

24,379
21,515

21,177

21,505

22,318

23,629

23,470

23,888

23,850
21,487

23,960

24,109
21,811

21,923

21,847

21K

21,765

21,972

22K

22,100

23,927

23,802

23K

23,646

24K

24,074

Labor Force & Employment Levels,

City of Rocky Mount, December 2014 to December 2015

25K

55K
2014/12 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3 2015/4 2015/5 2015/6 2015/7 2015/8 2015/9 2015/10 2015/11 2015/12
Labor Force

Employed

12-Mth

Goldsboro

Jacksonville

Statewide

NC Combined Metros

City of Rocky Mount

Rocky Mount MSA

6-Mth

-1.6%
-2.6%

-1.4%

-1.7%

-0.4%

-2%

New Bern

Fayetteville

-2.7%

-4%

Hickory

Wilmington

Greenville

Asheville

Burlington

Raleigh

0.4%

1.6%

1.1%

1.1%

0.4%

0.7%

0.7%

1.2%
0.2%

1.5%

1.5%
1.0%

0.9%

1.3%

1.2%

1.5%

1.2%

1.0%

4.3%

4.4%

4.8%

3.2%

4.1%

3.4%

3.4%

3.1%

3.2%

3.4%

3.5%

4%

Durham-CH

G'boro-High Point

Winston-Salem

1.8%

2%

Charlotte

6%

Change in Employment (as of December 2015)

0%

-6%

Change in Employment Since January 2008

(as of December 2015)

15%

Change Since January 2008

Rocky Mount MSA
-5.6%
City of Rocky Mount
-9.4%
NC Combined Metros
9.4%
Statewide
5.6%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

Rocky Mount MSA

City of Rocky Mount

NC Combined Metros

Statewide

2015/7

2015/1

2014/7

2014/1

2013/7

2013/1

2012/7

2012/1

2011/7

2011/1

2010/7

2010/1

2009/7

2009/1

2008/7

-15%

2008/1

-10%

Whats the Outlook?

Business Activity

What do Small Businesses Think?

How About Consumers?

The Inequality Challenge

Challenges
Health Insurance/Medicaid
Infrastructure
Disruption

IEI FutureWork Disruption Index by County (February 2016)

Questions?
Kenneth Hunter
kwhunter@gmail.com
Kenneth.Hunter@rockymountnc.gov