3/9/2016

Globalwarming:CoolingtheearthdownTheHindu

OPINIONCOMMENT

March9,2016

Coolingtheearthdown
R.Rajaraman

Stratosphericaerosolinjection,theboldestandalsothemostriskyofclimateengineeringinterventions,involvessprayingintothe
stratospherefine,lightcolouredparticlesdesignedtoreflectbackpartofthesolarradiationbeforeitreachesandwarmstheearth."Image
showsthetetheredballoonmethodtoinjectsulfateaerosolsintothestratosphere.Photo:WikimediaCommons,Source:CCBYSA3.0
Anemissionsreductionapproachtofightingglobalwarmingisnotenough.Alternativesolutionsinvolvingclimateengineeringmight
havetobedeployedsoonerthanwethink
TheParisConferencelastyearprimarilydiscussedplanstoreducecarbonemissions,whichisunderstandableasthisisthemostimmediate
itemforaction.Butothermeasuresfordealingwithglobalwarming,inparticularclimateengineering,maysoonacquiremoreimportance.
Today,climateengineeringeffortsareviewedeitherassecondarymeasurestobeundertakenalongsidereducingemissionsorastechnologies
whichhavenotmaturedenoughtowarrantdiscussionbyworldleaders.Butthesituationcanchangedramaticallyinthefuture.Evenifall
thenationalcommitmentsmadeinParisarefulfilled,theeffectsofglobalwarmingwillinevitablyworseninthenearterm.Asnations
struggletoreduceemissionsevenfurther,alternativesolutionsusingengineeringinnovationswillincreasinglygaincurrency.
Avarietyofsuchproposalsforbattlingglobalwarmingarealreadyonthetableafewarebeingtriedoutandothersarebeingseriously
researched.Unfortunately,someofthemalsocarrytherisk,ifthingsgowrong,ofcausingunintendedenvironmentaldisasters.Climate
engineeringexpertshavebeenaddressingtheseproblemsforyearsbutsuchawarenesshasnottrickleddowntothelargerintelligentsiato
formabodyofeducatedopinionthatcanhelpgovernmentsdecideonwhichtechniquestoadoptandhowbesttogovernandregulatethem.
Controlcarbonorsunlightorboth?
Mostclimateengineeringeffortscanbedividedintotwocategorieswhichaddress,respectively,themanagementofcarbonandthe
managementofsunlight.Thefirstcategoryisdirectedtowardsremovinggreenhousegasesfromtheatmosphere.Aprominentexampleis
carboncaptureandstorage(CCS),wheresomeofthecarbondioxide(CO)beingemittedbycoalfiredpowerstationsisrecapturedby
physicallysuckingitinandtransportingitelsewheretobesequesteredunderground.Thefirst115MWCCSretrofittedcoalpowerplant
commencedoperationatBoundaryDaminCanadain2014.TheCOcapturedthereistransportedandpumpedintonearbyoilfieldsfor
enhancedoilrecovery.ThishasreduceditsCOemissionbyonemilliontonneeachyear.StudiesareonintheU.K.andothernationsonthe
feasibilityofsimilarinstallationsthere.
AnothermethodforremovingCOfromtheatmosphereistoincreaseforestcoverasplantswillabsorbsomeoftheunwantedCO.Increased
forestationispartofIndiasstrategyforreducingCO.
ItisnotclearwhetherCCS,reforestationandothercarbonremovalmethodscanmakesufficientimpactatthegloballeveltosignificantly
slowdownglobalwarming.ButtheyseemrelativelybenignatthescaleatwhichtheyarebeingconsiderednowandwillatleastlowerCO
pollutionlocally.
Moreambitious,butalsomoreworrisome,isthesecondcategoryofclimateengineering:solarradiationmanagement(SRM).Heretheplan
istoreduceglobalwarmingbycuttingdowntheheatabsorbedbyourplanetfromthesun.Amongthetechniquesbeingconsideredare
marinecloudbrightening,cirruscloudmanipulationandstratosphericaerosolinjection(SAI).SAI,theboldestandalsothemostriskyof
climateengineeringinterventions,involvessprayingintothestratospherefine,lightcolouredparticlesdesignedtoreflectbackpartofthe
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3/9/2016

Globalwarming:CoolingtheearthdownTheHindu

solarradiationbeforeitreachesandwarmstheearth.SAIproponentsclaimthatthiscouldbringdowntheglobaltemperaturebyasmuchas
1Casubstantialamountintheclimatechangecontext.
Thisisneithersciencefictionnorfantasy.Muchpreliminaryresearchhasalreadybeendoneonthistechniqueandreviewedinmajor
journals.Theoptimalgasesforinjection,suchassulphurdioxide(SO),canbeproducedinabundance.Furthermore,justafewairplanes
speciallyredesignedforthepurposemaysufficeforinjectingtherequiredaerosolintothestratosphere.Therearealsoprecedentsfrom
nature.The1991volcaniceruptionofMountPinatubointhePhilippinesinjected20megatonnesofSOintothestratosphere,coolingthe
globesignificantlyforacoupleofyears.
ButSAIalsohasthepotentialfordisastroussideeffects,crossingnationalboundaries.ThePinatubovolcaniceruptionisalsosaidtohave
reducedprecipitation,soilmoisture,andriverflowinmanyregions.Injectionofsulphurcompoundsintothestratosphereislikelytoincrease
aciddepositiononthegroundandalsocontributetoozonelayerdepletion.Apartfromsuchknownunknowns,therecouldalsobe,touse
thecatchphrase,theunknownunknowns.
Theglobalclimatesystemistoocomplexforcurrentcomputationaltechniquestopredictallpossibleconsequencesoftamperingwithit.Once
theaerosolhasbeeninjectedintotheatmosphere,itcannotberemoved.Yet,ifforanyreasontheinjection,oncebegun,isdiscontinued
prematurely,therecanberapidrewarming.That,ironically,coulddomoredamagethanthegradualglobalwarmingthatweareseekingto
combat.
SAIresearchisstillatatheoreticalandlaboratorylevel.Developmentofthesetechniquestolargescaledeploymentisyearsaway.Inthat
case,whyshouldthelargercommunityworryaboutitnow?ThereasonisSRMinterventionscouldhappensoonerthanonethinks.The
technologydoesnotseemtobeastronomicallyexpensivebystandardsofnationalbudgets.Usingafewairplanestoinjectthenecessary
amountofaerosoltobringthetemperaturedownbyonedegreecouldcostonlyafewbilliondollarswellwithinthereachofeven
developingcountries.
Flashpointsofthefuture
Asclimatechangeworsens,somecoastlandscouldgounderwaterandotherregionscouldsufferextremeheatandseveredroughtscausing
massivehumansuffering.Undersuchpressure,andintheabsenceofinternationalregulatoryregimes,theaffectednation,evenasmall
developingone,maywellresorttousingwhateverSAItechnologyisavailablebythenintheinternationalmarket.Intheirdesperation,
possibleharmfuleffectsonothercountriesmaynotweighheavilyontheirdecisionmaking.Meanwhile,justthefearofpossibleadverseside
effectscouldleadothernationstotakepreventiveactionagainsttheperpetrator.Nationshavegonetowarforless.
Onesimplewaytodealwiththisproblemistojustbanfurtherresearchinthesefields.Infact,someclimatescientistshavealreadysuggested
this.TheyalsofearthateventhepossibilityofSRMinterventionsmayundermineeffortstoreducecarbonemissions.Butablanketbanon
SRMwouldbeunwiseanddifficulttoimplement.Technology,benignormalevolent,hasawayofcontinuingtoadvance.Besides,banningall
SRMresearchwillamounttothrowingthebabyoutwiththebathwater.ThegoalofSRMistomitigatedamagedonebycarbonemissions.If
thereissomechanceofitsucceedingsafely,itwouldbeunwisetoabandonitatthisstage.AbandonmentwouldalsoleaveSRMtechnologies
danglingmidway,insufficientlytestedorrefined.Thatmayneverthelessnotdetersomedesperateclimatechangeafflictednationfrom
deployingit,leadingtodisaster.
Itisonlythroughcontinuationofresponsibleresearchinclimateengineering,doneunderproperregulatoryoversight,thatthelimitations
andrisksofsuchinterventionscanbefullyunderstoodandprovidethebasisforinformeddecisionmaking.Thatwillcallforinternational
governancemechanismsforoverseeingtheresearchanddevelopmentandpossibledeploymentofclimateengineeringtechniques.Thiswill
takeyearstonegotiateandsetup.Criteriaforpermissibleworkwillhavetobedeveloped,alongwithexpertiseforverificationofcompliance.
Whileactiveclimateengineeringresearchershavealreadybeenconscientiouslyworryingabouttheseissues,itisnottooearlyfortherestof
ustostartthinkingaboutit.
(R.RajaramanisEmeritusProfessorofPhysicsatJNU.)

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