Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MANU ARORA
JONATHAN CADET
EMILIO CASTAGNETTI
VITO PAGLIUCA
OLIVIER SECKINGER
ZOUHEIR SULTANI
Macro Analysis
Industry Overview
1.
2.
Overnight Rate
Corporate Profits
3.
Aggregate Household
Debt
4.
Regulation of the
Commercial Banking
Industry
5.
Consumer Confidence
Index
To stay competitive
the Big 6 Banks
have been
acquiring smaller
competitors
Acquisitions provide
a means for industry
operators to achieve
economies of scale
and boost profit
margins
Industry Performance
Household Debt
Mounting Regulation
Commercial banks in
Canada will have to
comply with increasing
government regulation
over the five years to
2020, despite their strong
financial positions
Benefits
u
Boost in reputation on an
international scale
Cons
There is wholehearted
market acceptance of
commercial banking
services
Market Segmentation
Product Segmentation
Client Distribution
Superior financial
management and debt
management
Economies of scale
Internal competition
External competition
Industry assistance
Oil
From the second quarter impaired loans in oil-andgas almost quadrupled to C$183 million (US$140
million) from the previous quarter
Oil
Toronto Dominion
Company
Description
TD
Toronto Dominion
1.
Retail Banking
2.
Commercial Banking
3.
Wealth Management
4.
Wholesale Banking
Retail Banking
Products Include:
1.
2.
3.
Commercial Banking
Wealth Management
High-level professional
service
Services include:
1.
Financial/Investment
Advice
2.
Retirement/Legal/Estate
Planning
3.
Accounting/Tax services
Wholesale banking
Services include:
1.
Currency conversion
2.
Competitive
Advantage
TD
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Weaknesses
Reliance on Canadian
economy
Opportunities
Expansion in US market
Threats
Increasing competition
Porters 5 Forces
Porters Analysis
Retail focus
Liquidity Management
TD Profits
Hikes in issuance of
dividends
Revenue climbs
Revenues
Difference between
interest received and
interest paid
Td is highly affected by
Macro environment
Mergers &
Acquisitions
TD
Chrysler Financial
Corporation (2011) for 6.3
Billion$ paid in cash.
Acquired just under 1 million
car loans which easily
translate into TD clients.
Management
TD
Bharat Masrani
Masters in business
administration York University
27 years of banking
experience, holds Chief Risk
Officer and group head of
U.S. Personal and
commercial banking
positions
CEO Goals
Colleen M. Johnston
Masters in business
administration York
University
Responsibilities: regulatory
financial reporting,
performance
measurement, optimization
of capital allocation
Recently elected as a
Fellow Chartered
Accountant (FCA)
Intrinsic Value
TD
Beta
Expected Return
EPS
Dividends
Retention Ratio
b= 54.8649%
Growth Rate
ROE= 13.6%
EPS= $4.81
DPS= $2.171
b= 54.8649%
13.6%=g/54.8649%
g= 7.4616%
Decrease g by 1% to be
conservative
Adjusted g= 6.4616%
DDM
DPS= $2.171
k= 10.257%
g= 6.4616%
Vo= 2.171*(1+6.4616%)/(10.257%-6.4616%)
Vo= $60.8969
Recommendation
TD would be a buy
recommendation
Company
Description
RBC
VALUES
DESCRIPTION
Client First
Collaboration
Accountability
Integrity
Business Segments
RBC provides:
Wealth Management
Capital Markets
Insurance
Banking
Credits &
Loans
Investments
Chequing &
Credit Cards
Savings Accounts
Student Banking
Mortgages
Newcomers to
Canada
Stock, Bonds,
ETFs
Home Equity
Loans
Other Investments
Wealth Management
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Estate Planning
7.
Tax Strategies
8.
9.
10.
Wealth Transfer
11.
Retirement Planning
Capital Markets
Products
Services
Commodities
Alternative Assets
Corporate Banking
Debt
Corporate Access
Derivatives
Equity Markets
Investment Banking
Prime Brokerage
Structured Notes
Global custody
Fund administration
Transaction banking
Shareholder services
Treasury services
Alternative investments
Outsourcing
Benefit payments
Reconciliation services
Canadian sub-custody
Trustee services
Investment finance
Competitive
Advantage
RBC
Competitive Advantage
S.W.O.T Analysis
Strength
Leading market position in Canada
Solid financial fundamentals
High domestic brand recognition
Export of "Canadian Bank" image to
other markets
Growing global wealth management
business
Loyal customer base
Experienced executive management
Opportunities
Export of "Canadian Bank image
to other markets
Global growing wealth
Canadian dollar strength provides
acquisition opportunities in foreign
markets with higher GDP growth
Threats
Weaknesses
Weak US operations with ongoing
losses
Heavy reliance on wholesale funds
High cost brick and mortar infrastructure
Strategic Goals
CANADA
UNITED STATES
GLOBAL
Revenues
$22,690
$158,703
$56,805
Loans (Retail):
$348,183
Loans (Wholesale):
$126,069
Derivatives:
$107,860
Shareholder Performance
Q1/2016 payout ratio: 50% was in line with our target of 40-50%
Mergers &
Acquisitions
City National deepens RBCs penetration in U.S. wealth management and broaden its
geographic exposure
Management
RBC
Board of Directors
u
David I. McKay
President & C.E.O.
Doug Guzman
Group Head, Wealth Management
& Insurance
Mark Hughes
Chief Risk Officer
Bruce Ross
Group Head, Technology and
Operations
Board of Directors
Intrinsic Value
RBC
Beta
Beta Adjusted
Expected Return
EPS
Dividends
Retention Ratio
b= 51.503%
Growth Rate
ROE= 16.9%
EPS= $6.72
DPS= $3.259
b= 51.503%
16.9%=g/51.503%
g= 8.704%
Decrease g by 2% to be
conservative
Adjusted g= 6.704%
DDM
DPS= $3.259
k= 10.58%
g= 6.704%
Vo= 3.259*(1+6.704%)/(10.58%-6.704%)
Vo= $89.7184
Recommendation
Conclusion
Future Considerations
Analysis of the oil
industry might incur
different
results/conclusions
u Test different
models/assumptio
ns in DCF to
analyze the
sensitivity
u
Support Slides
DDM 3 Stage
TD & RBC
We decided to go with
rather modest growth rates
DDM 3 Stage TD
COMPARABLES
25,000.00
22,070.02
20,359.12
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
9,925.00
7,912.00
7,014.00
4,370.00
3,576.00
2,191.00
1,549.00
2,285.00
23.01%
21.79%
23.14%
20.73%
18.37%
20.33%
19.22%
17.12%
16.90%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
11.86%
6.36%
EPS comparable
EPS TTM
10.00
8.89
9.00
7.50
8.00
7.00
6.75
6.59
5.70
6.00
5.00
4.56
4.23
3.57
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.78
1.01
1.06
ROA Comparable
ROA TTM
1.20%
1.11%
1.01%
1.00%
0.81%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
0.89%
0.86%
0.74%
0.92%
0.93%
0.76%
0.65%
0.52%
ROE Comparable
ROE TTM
20.00%
18.85%
18.79%
17.20%
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
13.74%
14.92%
12.96%
12.77%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
8.40%
6.94%
8.13%
6.45%
Balance Sheet
Ratios Comparable
3.57
3.49
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
2.46
2.33
1.97
1.80
1.88
1.69
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.78
0.25
0.49
0.64
0.62
0.54
0.52
0.49
0.46
0.41
0.40
0.42
0.36
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
No data
No data
0.87
0.90
0.80
0.71
0.93
0.81
0.81
0.71
0.75
0.83
0.81
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
No data
No data
Reserves/Total Loans
Comparable
Reserves/Total Loans
0.03000
0.0248
0.02500
0.02000
0.0165
0.01500
0.0112
0.01000
0.00500
0.00000
0.0079
0.00408
0.0058
0.0056
0.0056
0.0053
No data
No data
Enterprise value
700,000.00
669,207.12
597,990.05
600,000.00
500,000.00
462,189.70
400,000.00
319,170.81
300,000.00
200,000.00
100,000.00
0.00
242,944.40
181,153.06
83,875.34
50,100.00
29,620.71
41,960.91
30,996.34
P/E Comparable
P/E TTM
18.00
15.69
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
12.28
10.29
11.10
9.66
11.09
10.01
9.54
7.20
9.21
8.24
P/E to Growth
PEG
6.00
4.96
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.94
2.92
2.10
1.92
2.91
2.26
1.69
1.62
0.88
0.74
2.50
2.00
1.96
1.89
1.59
1.50
1.53
1.51
1.38
1.35
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.75
0.77