R

I
E
S
2. The given differential equation is consistent with the following compartment model which depicts the
given situation:
β
N
(I + ℜ) b c

S+ E+ I + R=N . b is the rate of conversion from incubation to being infectious. c is the death rate of the
β
infectious class. (I + ℜ) is the rate that a susceptible becomes infected where the people incubating the
N
disease and the infectious can cause infection to the susceptibles.

β I E I E
Note that ( I + ℜ )=β + βr , so <1 and <1. If r >1, then the population incubating the disease will
N N N N N
infect the susceptible more than the infectious, else otherwise.

E0 1
If ≪ 1 and E0 do not become infectious for a time of order , then during this time it is a good presumption
N b
that S(T )≈ N with the additional assumption that I ( t )=0 (It will not be a good presumption if I ( t ) ≠ 0 ).

dE
Assume S ( T ) =N and I ( t )=0 : =β ℜ−bE=E ( βr −b ) .
dt
dE
=( βr −b ) dt ❑ ln E=( βr−b ) t +k , k is constant. Hence, ( t )=E0 e ( βr−b) t .
E ⇒

But notice that the presumption above needs to make βr=0∧b=0 , else S ( T ) ≈ N will not be a good
approximate during this time. Hence, E ( t )=E0 during the period indicated in the presumption.

The time indicated in the presumption, is disease free, however, the steady state I ( t )=0 , E ( t )=E0 , S (t ) ≈ N ,
R ( t )=0 can be unstable if βr >0∨b>0 , i.e. this steady state will not hold anymore.
¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
Technically, the following are disease-free steady states: I =0 , E =0 , S ≥ 0 , R ≥ 0 where I + E + S + R =N ,
¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
however, these steady states will be unstable except for I =0 , E =0 , S =a constant , R =a constant (if
β ,r , b , c >0). The stability of steady states depends upon the values of the rates β ,r , b∧c (example: refer to
critical number in finding R0). There are unstable steady states since individuals continuously flow from one
compartment to the other if the rates are positive, and actually the steady states are saddle points.

If I > 0 , E >0 :
dS dR
<0 , >0
dt dt
βS
dE
dt
{
¿ 0 if

¿ 0 if
N
βS
N
( I + ℜ) >bE

( I + ℜ) <bE
dI ¿ 0if bE>cI
{
dt ¿ 0if bE<cI

The critical numbers in finding R0:

b
I 0= E 0
c
β S0
( I +r E0 ) =b E0
N 0
β S0 b
N c 0( )
E + r E 0 =b E0

b
βN c ) β
( +r
If S =N , then
0
R= 0 =
N b (b bc +r )= bcβ ( b+ rc ) , which is the basic reproduction rate of infection.
3. In the criss-cross model given, it is assumed that there is uniformly promiscuous behavior in the
population, and the population consists of two interacting classes (male and female). Infections is passed
from one member of a class to the other class. Each class is disease host for the other, i.e. I’ infects S and
I infects S’. The removed class is permanently immune. The males are divided into S, I, R and the females
into S’, I’, R’.

The rate of decrease in male susceptibles is proportional to the size of the population of male
susceptibles times the infectious female population, with constant of proportionality r. The rate of
decrease in female susceptibles is proportional to the size of the population of female susceptibles times
the infectious male population, with constant of proportionality r’.

Since in the criss-cross model there is no births and deaths (no one going in or out the system), then the
populations of male and female are constant.

Show that if S ( ∞ ) >0, then I ' ( ∞ )=0.

dS '
We know that <0 if r >0 , S>0∧I > 0 ,hence, as t → ∞ , S → 0. But S ( ∞ ) >0∧r >0, hence, the
dt
only reason for S ( ∞ ) >0 is when I ' ( ∞ )=0. Logically, this means that if there are still susceptibles
as t → ∞, then there are no more infected that will infect the susceptible and no more reason to
drive S to be zero. The same argument goes with if S ' ( ∞ ) >0, then I ( ∞ ) =0.

Since S+ I + R=N m ❑
⇒
R ( ∞ )=N m −S (∞ ) and S '+ I ' + R '=N f ❑ R ' ( ∞ ) =N f −S ' (∞ ).
⇒
dS
dt dS −rS I ' −rS
Now, = = ' ' = '
d R ' d R' aI a
dt
dS −r −r
= ' d R' ❑ ln S= ' R' +k , k is constant
S a ⇒ a
−r '
R
Hence, S ( t ) =S e a .'

0
The system of transcendental equations that will determine S ( ∞ ) and S ' (∞):
−r ' −r
R (∞ ) ( N f −S' ( ∞) )

{ S ( ∞ )=S 0 e

S ' ( ∞ )=S ' 0 e

a'

−r
a
'
R (∞)
=S 0 e a'

=S ' 0 e
−r
a
'
( N m −S (∞ ))

S0 I ' 0 a
dI
|
dt t =0
=r S 0 I ' 0 −a I 0
¿ 0if { ¿ 0if
I

I0
0
>

S0 I ' 0 a
<
r

r
S '0 I0 a '
dI '
|
dt t =0
'
=r ' S 0 I 0−a' I ' 0 I

{¿ 0 if
' 0
>

S ' I a'
¿ 0 if 0 0 <
I '0 r '
r'

S0 I '0 a S '0 I 0 a '

So the threshold condition for an epidemic to occur is at least one of > or > .
I0 r I '0 r'

The condition that would ensure epidemic if S0 , I 0 , S ' 0 , I ' 0 >0 is when the removal rates is small enough
compared to the infection rates (or infection rates is large enough compared to the removal rates), i.e.
a a'
∨ is so small.
r r'

6. Prove that AB−C> 0.

2 p T́
A=( δ + c )+ −( p−d T ) +k V́ I
T max
2 p T́
B=( δ+c )
[
T max
−( p−d T ) + k V́ I
]
C=kcδ V́ I

S T́
Note that k V́ I = + p− p −d T
T́ T max

2 p T́
Denote −( p−d T ) +k V́ I =z
T max

2 p T́ S T́ p T́ S
z= −( p−dT ) + + p− p −d T = + >0
T max T́ T max T max T́

Hence, we can write A=( δ+ c )+ z >0 and A=( δ + c ) z >0

AB=( ( δ +c ) + z ) ( δ+c ) z=( δ + c )2 z + ( δ + c ) z 2
 2 p T́
Denote −( p−d T )=M . Hence, z=k V́ I + M.
T max

C=cδk V́ I =cδ ( z−M ) >0.

AB−C=z δ 2 +2 zδc+c 2 z +δ z 2 +c z 2−cδz+ cδM (combine the highlighted)

AB−C=z δ 2 + zδc+ c2 z+ δ z 2+ c z 2+ cδM (combine the highlighted)
AB−C=z δ 2 +δc( z+ M )+ c 2 z +δ z 2 +c z 2

Now let’s analyze the term δc (z+ M ).

S p T́ 4 p T́ S 3 p T́
z + M =k V́ I + 2 M = + p− −dT + −2 p+2 d T = −p + +d T
T́ T max T max T́ T max
Hence,
S 3 p T́
(
In δc − p+
T́ T max )
+d T we will have – δcp. But in AB−C we still have the term δ 2 z and c 2 z with δ 2 p

and c 2 p , respectively.
If δ >c then δ 2> δc. If ¿ c thenc 2 >δc . Hence, the effect of – δcp is overpowered by either of δ 2 p or c 2 p .
Now if δ 2 p or c 2 p is lessened by – δcp, the sign of the term δ 2 z or c 2 z will not be affected since
2 p T́ 2 p T́ 2 p T́
z= −( p−dT ) +k V́ I > 0❑ p−d T < + k V´ I ❑−d T < +k V́ I .
T max ⇒ T max ⇒ T max

Hence, AB−C=z δ 2 +δc( z+ M )+ c 2 z +δ z 2 +c z 2 >0 .